What Will the Twins Front Office's Trade Deadline Strategy Look Like?

[Nick Nelson]

The Twins went all-in on this 2023 season, signing Carlos Correa and pushing payroll to a record high. Now, they find themselves floundering in first place, with clear shortcomings needing to be addressed as the trade deadline emerges on the horizon. 

Upgrading this faulty offensive unit will not be a simple or straightforward undertaking. 

Image courtesy of Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports

The August 1st trade deadline is a little over seven weeks away, which is a long time but not THAT long. Already, the front office is surely beginning to strategize, keeping one eye forward while they try to maintain a slim division lead in the present.

For Twins brass, the prevailing hope is – has to be – that significant improvement will be driven internally, with lagging hitters and injured players and wayward youngsters finding their rhythms in the summer months. Few outside additions could be as impactful as Carlos Correa finding his MVP form and turning it on for three months, or Jose Miranda rediscovering his swing and returning to the majors with a vengeance.

But even with some much-needed twists of fortune, it's already growing clear that this team will need additional help to compete at the level of, say, the Tampa Bay Rays, who soundly swept them in Florida last week.

The bullpen is its own issue, and luckily relief pitchers tend to be plentiful at the deadline. I'm more interested in how the Twins might look to address the offense, because that is no easy nut to crack. 

They're already having a hard enough time finding room for some of their best hitting prospects from the minors, so realistically, where would the Twins be aiming to make impact additions? And what might be available?

As we'll learn through taking a position-by-position survey of the roster, any upgrade scenario would require a little shaking and shuffling. 

CATCHER
Christian Vázquez has been a big contributor to the team's offensive woes, turning into a total void at the plate after the first week, but he's not going anywhere – both because his defense is considered so valuable, and because he's on a freshly signed $30 million contract. Ryan Jeffers has been very good. Barring injuries, catcher is not a place to target additions. (Not that any impact hitters are available here anyway.)

FIRST BASE
It seems safe to say Alex Kirilloff is firmly implanted. He's been essentially the only hitter on the team to live up to his promise. He's a long-term cornerstone piece. Kirilloff definitely seems most comfortable and effective at first base defensively. That said, he can play the outfield corners just fine, so if a big 1B bat were to come into play, moving AK off the position would be an option. (It would, however, require the Twins to sort out their existing corner-OF depth, which we'll cover shortly.)

• Name to Watch: Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals – The 35-year-old reigning NL MVP is under contract through next year with the last-place Cards, who probably wouldn't mind dumping his salary for prospects. Goldy has a no-trade clause, but that's not always a deal-breaker for brokering a deal...

SECOND BASE
Jorge Polanco's health can be counted on roughly as much as Edouard Julien's defense – but the presence of both quality bats makes it hard to justify adding another player here. Especially when Royce Lewis, Brooks Lee, and Austin Martin could all factor in at second as well. 

SHORTSTOP
Something tells me the Twins won't be trading for anyone to replace their $200 million free agent in the first year of his deal. 

THIRD BASE
Between Lewis, Lee, and Miranda (not to mention Kyle Farmer) it feels like the Twins have too many guys in the third-base mix for adding another piece to make sense. MAYBE if a difference-maker became available, it would be possible to shift things around, but as I scan the deadline trade candidate landscape I don't see any prominent third basemen in the likely mix. 

Thanks to some intrepid reporting, I believe we can safely say the Twins won't be dealing for Josh Donaldson. 

LEFT FIELD
So, the Twins have Trevor Larnach, they've got Joey Gallo, they've got Willi Castro. Nick Gordon will be back at some point. None of those four are above setting aside for a high-profile acquisition, if the right deal presented itself. I'd name left field as the most likely destination for a deadline bat addition, mainly because the Twins are least entrenched at this position and it's an easy place to make a variety of good hitters work. 

• Name to Watch: Juan Soto, Padres – Under control through next year, he's the only member of San Diego's star-studded core who hasn't been locked down long-term. Soto would require a ransom and will cost around $30 million in his coming final turn at arbitration. Do the Twins have an appetite for 2023/24 superstar upside at that pricetag? 

CENTER FIELD
It's probably wishful thinking to believe Byron Buxton will occupy this position in any full-time capacity this year, but Michael A. Taylor has been a quality fixture and Gordon will be back at some point. Tough to envision a major add in center field.

RIGHT FIELD
It's a similar situation to left field, except here you've got the longtime incumbent Max Kepler atop the depth chart, and top prospect Matt Wallner pressing him from Triple-A. I would bet against Kepler still being on the roster on August 1st, but even if Wallner flops or gets hurt, the presence of guys like Larnach, Gallo, and Kirilloff provide a lot of theoretically capable offensive depth. 

If the right opportunity came along, the Twins could probably make it work. But I consider left field to be easily the most likely spot for an addition in the outfield.

DESIGNATED HITTER
If Buxton's knee flares up, or something else happens to knock him out for the season, the Twins would presumably turn to Julien at DH, where he's best suited. But let's say Polanco can't get his legs healthy, and Julien needs to stick at second. That's the type of situation that would open the door for acquiring a pure designated hitter at the deadline. Maybe even one who could ... also slot in as your ace starter in a ridiculously loaded playoff rotation? Just spitballing here.

• Name to Watch: Shohei Ohtani, Angels – For now, the Angels are in contention. But if that changes, as it usually does, they'll surely be shopping the impending free agent Ohtani. Minnesota would be in no position to re-sign him, so it comes down to how much they're willing to sacrifice for the most impactful and expensive deadline rental in MLB history.

Alright, so, what has this exercise taught us? 

For me, it's that the trade deadline is probably not going to offer solutions for the Twins lineup, unless they are willing to venture into the pipe-dream territory teased above with names like Goldschmidt, Soto and Ohtani. 

If you move your scope much lower than the superstar tier, then you're probably not getting a whole lot more upside and assurance in a 2-3 month sample than you would with internal options already on hand. And the last thing this front office needs is to get wiped out on another bad deadline deal.

For better or worse, I think that's where the path to resurrection lies for this offense. As tired as the "It's like making a trade!" tropes are, nothing can realistically remedy this offense as much as coalescing a remotely healthy and effective mix of Buxton, Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Gallo, Larnach, and beyond.

Then again, the deadline is still a pretty long ways away.

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[HerbieFan]

Nick, you summed it up when you said Kiriloff is the only one to live up to expectations.  That's an organizational failure.   All of their major additions are on pace for career-high strike out rates.  Only hitters over .800 OPS are Kiriloff and Jeffers and they really haven't gotten enough at bats for that to be an encouragement.  Can all of this possibly be a coincidence?  

[blindeke]

Spot on. Can we trade for a better hitting coach?

[High heat]

I think a left fielder or CFer bat are out only real options.  If you feel comfortable moving Kiriloff off first and to LF that could work.

they need a back end of the bullpen since  Jorge Lopez is so Jekyll and hide.  Other than that the guys on the roster just need to play better.  

[JesusisLord7]

I think we need some speed in the lineup. What about ESTEURY RUIZ from Oakland. His WAR is 0.0 and he is 24 years old. But what I like is 31 stolen bases and only caught stealing 6 times. I think with a lot of big bats behind him a player like this would make sense. I don't think the price tag would be too steep.

[Reptevia]

So…sellers then?  I think the most likely place they will target is BP. Even so, they won’t find enough bullpen help to win games 2-1. The offense is a disaster. A philosophical disaster that is probably only cured by firing the philosophers. 

[dberthia]

With their track record of being fleeced in trades (Joe Ryan is a rare exception), they're better off not pulling the trigger on anything except dumping Pagan and Kepler. At least those moves would be addition via subtraction.

[mnfireman]

The best trade the team can make at the deadline is good health for bad health. The roster is solid and if they can have everyone succeed in their roles, they will be OK. Right now players are being asked to do things out of their skill set and it is hurting the team.

[Rosterman]

What can they trade for that will put them in contention in the playoffs. That is the question.

Do they hand onto Gray and do a qualifying offer, or trade him. Polanco would be a dynamite tradechip.

Others, if they have value, can be traded: Pagan, Gallo, Kepler, Solano, Madea...but not seeing people trip over themselves to make deals.

If the Twins are dipping into the minors to move prospecs, who will be Rule 5 eligible. Who is blocked in the battle for middle infield/third base in High-A and above, I don't see alot of pitching arms beyond perhaps Fundeburk and Enlow that the Twins really need to protect in the 2024 offseason. Do names like Woods Ricahrdson, Balazovic, Winder, Sands draw interest from...anyone.

[mikelink45]

Well who do we trade - I suggest Buxton - he is not producing what we need at DH and he is not in CF.  Move one.  Then Gallo - if he replaced Luis Arraez we really missed the boat and maybe even the ocean the boat was on.  

Lewis is also showing hit potential to produce what we hoped. 

Wallner should be in and Max should be in Germany promoting baseball.  

Pagan and Lopez are available for bullpens that are our major competitors.  Grab them quick. 

[Brandon]

I could see the Twins calling Walner up and giving him some opportunities soon.  He has earned it.  But I think the Twins are more likely to roll with what they have because they have multiple moving parts that can be potential difference makers.  Walner, Garlick in the OF.  Lewis is now the 3B and he is doing a great job offensively last I saw.  I think Correa is starting to get out of his early season slump.  But Kepler and Gallo need to step it up if they want to keep their jobs is my thought.,  Larnarch also deserves playing time.  I can see a scenario where the Twins aquire a hitter to play 1B or DH and move Killeroff to the OF and demote Larnarch or trade Kepler to improve the Offense.  but other than that I really dont see the Twins doing anything.  

I agree with Reptevia that the Twins will target bullpen arms.  

[wabene]

1 hour ago, dberthia said:

With their track record of being fleeced in trades (Joe Ryan is a rare exception),

Well let's see, starting with one of their first trades, Jake Odorizzi for Jermaine Palacios, who they got back later for free, through Johan Duran for a couple of months of Escobar on through two years of the quality MLB starting pitching from Sonny Gray and a possible compensation pick via the qualifying offer which would be essentially the equivalent pick they gave up to get him. Fleeced? Maybe not every time, eh? 

[twins_89]

My guess for the trade deadline is that Kepler gets moved, the Twins acquire a relief pitcher that can be trusted in high leverage situations, Julien sticks in the majors, Miranda bounces back, and that Buxton starts to play CF part time.

[wabene]

8 minutes ago, twins_89 said:

My guess for the trade deadline is that Kepler gets moved, the Twins acquire a relief pitcher that can be trusted in high leverage situations, Julien sticks in the majors, Miranda bounces back, and that Buxton starts to play CF part time.

Sign me up! 

[DocBauer]

The simple truth is the team we began with for 2023 is not that bad. The problem is poor performance from those on that roster, as well as some injuries, and some stubbornness from the FO that defies logic.

How do you trade for a 1B when Krilloff is healthy...thank the baseball gods something went right for once...is one of your best performers and finally looking like he's ready to get his career rolling. Of course, he can play a decent corner OF...so you COULD play him more there, but....

A healthy Gallo has really done everything asked of him, and has looked just about like his past All Star level previously with poor AVG and good OB and power and production. He's back in a day or two. Despite his struggles and a bout with pneumonia, Larnach has frankly out produced Kepler, while playing good defense generally and still flashing his arm. Wallner is the Twins reigning milb hitter of the year and destroying AAA, while looking at least decent at the ML level so far, and we'd want to sacrifice MORE milb talent for an OF bat before we'd see what the prospects can do, along with Gallo? 

Lewis is a stud and going nowhere. Correa needs to step forward, unless he just can't, pun somewhat intended, but he's recently starting to look like that might be happening. Polanco is a great ballplayer, but right now, we just don't know if or when his legs are going to be ready. In the meantime, Julien is just getting better and better, though he's a step down defensively. Other than replacing the not great but solid and generally productive Salono with a re-snergized Miranda...which MIGHT happen...there is no INF addition that makes sense. Unless it's at 1B, and then we look at the previous 1B/OF crunch previously mentioned.

The offense still has real potential. Especially if Correa is ready to take off and Buxton and Gallo come back soon to be their normal streaky but dangerous and productive selves. 

If you hadn't noticed, AK and Julien and Lswis are starting to lead this team.  Jeffers has really improved this season. And again, Larnach has out produced Kepler. What might Wallner do?

The rotation is fine.

The pen is not as bad as some make it appear to be. When the offense is as poor and unpredictable as its been, ANY run allowed, or bad day, will make the pen look worse than it really is. Despite simply being human, Duran is a stud. Jax went through some early season crap, but has been looking like his normal self as of late. Moran has settled in and has been pretty damn good. Stewart has been a godsend and doesn't appear to be just a flash. He's a former top arm who went to hell and back and found a new career in this role. Same as Thielbar. But speaking of Thielbar, they need to get him RIGHT. An oblique injury can linger. Eventually, he's going to fade. But I don't think he's ready to do that. Considering the upcoming schedule, they need to get him ready for the balance of the season in July on. Let him rest and get ready for July on. Speaking of former top prospects who get healthy and adapt to a pen role, DeLeon has looked pretty good. I'm not going to trust him right now in a crucial 8th or 9th spot, but he's looking good in the middle innings.

I'm NOT saying the pen is perfect. It's not. Fully healthy, WITH Thielbar eventually, even with the improvement of Jax and Moran and the surprises of Stewart and maybe DeLeon, that's a POTENTIAL 6 you MIGHT rely on. The problem is...even with a healthy Thielbar... the Twins are still holding on to Pagan for reasons only THEY seem to understand, and the standard 8th pen arm that is a rotational piece. I GET the 8th arm rotational arm, but how often have we needed it this year? Further, how long can the FO just ignore having the WORST RP in all of baseball and Twins history as the 7th man?

I understand the season started with arms like Winder and Henriquez hurt who might have helped. And Sands was looking better in his role before he also got injured. And Alcala is out, but he too might be back before the year is done. But even if you want to leave the 8th spot open for "whoever" , you can't trust SOMEONE to be better than the worst RP in all of MLB for 5yrs running?

Dump Pagan tomorrow, a year too late, and bring up Ortega, or give Balazovic his first ML shot out of the pen. Or, I don't know, even though we want Headrick to be the next SP in line, maybe he should be up with Thielbar out.

The BEST THING the Twins could do right now, besides dumping Pagan for ANYONE, is trying to fix Lopez. The velocity and stuff is there. Maki and Suggs need to get in his head and fix it, or his mix, and get him right again. If they can do that, the entire pen changes.

If not, we need to add an arm at the deadline.

The bite is, even with a few  bad performances from said pen, the lineup is why the Twins aren't a good a 10 games above. 500 or more. And I honestly don't know who you sacrifice in trade value to improve on what you already have if they just tweak on what's available, make the one tough call, and give a chance to what's on hand. 

[MTV]

I think the needs are set for Minnesota at the deadline: 2 bats, 2 relievers. One of those relievers should be a 1-year guy for Kepler, maybe eat some of his contract or surrender a low-level prospect, and a high-leverage guy to balance out Duran. DFA Pagan or make someone take him, I don’t care. Getting a serious 1B/DH would be a good option if Kirilloff/Buxton get injured long-term (knock on wood), but the outfield needs to be addressed. I don’t like Larnach’s lack of hitting off-speeds and think he should be traded, and a righty corner bat is necessary. Also getting a better CF than Taylor would help a lot, doesn’t need to be a huge improvement but just someone to balance out playing time.

[Brazilian Twins Fan]

I don't think there's a slim chance we trade for any of these players above. We probably stick with some medium to insignificant trade addition and fade out of contention.

Please FalVine, prove me wrong. 

[CRF]

I have no idea what the FO's plan will be, but I sure hope they move Pagan and Kepler. For God's sake...dump Garlick too! I don't think there's any chance that they'd be in on Soto, Ohtani, or Goldy...it's just not in their DNA to do anything like that. More than likely, they make a few minor deals. 

[bighat]

The biggest "win" at the deadline will be if the team stays put or sells. There's absolutely no reason to gut the farm system for guys like Trevor Mahle again. The team is far too flawed to have one or two guys come in and fix things, they need at least 5-6 new players on offense starting every day to even remotely be considered a contender. You can't do that at the deadline. 

Frankly I'd like to see them sell. If they can get something for Polanco, now's the time to do it. If the Twins can still get anything for Larnach, I'd be in favor of doing that as well. And heck, if you're not going to let Buxton play CF, trade him and his team-friendly contract as well for prospects. Or at least consider it and listen to offers. Someone out there would kill to put Bux in CF tomorrow. 

Get return prospects who can hit and make contact. DFA dead weight like Kep and Pagan (you can't trade what nobody wants) Let Kirilloff, Lewis, and Eddie Julien play every day and bring up guys like Austin Martin and Balazovic for a cup of coffee and see if there's anything there. Clock's ticking on those guys and it's possible they are just blocking other talented players at this point.

They should sell because this is a bad team, folks. It's time to stop kidding yourselves. 

[bighat]

9 hours ago, JesusisLord7 said:

I think we need some speed in the lineup. What about ESTEURY RUIZ from Oakland. His WAR is 0.0 and he is 24 years old. But what I like is 31 stolen bases and only caught stealing 6 times. I think with a lot of big bats behind him a player like this would make sense. I don't think the price tag would be too steep.

Beg your pardon? 

I agree that Ruiz is an incredible player and would be a welcome addition to the Twins. Or the Yankees. Or the Mets. Or the Orioles. Or the Padres.....you get the idea. He's Oakland's best young player by far and he's going to be a very costly get for whoever goes after him. 

[LewFordLives]

In terms of bang for the buck, a short-term rental reliever would make the most impact. It's become clear they are going to be involved in a lot of close games. A decent 7th or 8th inning guy could help add a couple wins down the stretch. 

As the article points out, there won't be a lot of high impact bats available. Also, the Twins don't have a lot of trade chips. 

[Riverbrian]

9 hours ago, Nick Nelson said:

They're already having a hard enough time finding room for some of their best hitting prospects from the minors

This is the main problem. 

Based on the production. They shouldn't be having a hard time

[Blyleven2011]

Where do we start  ???

I don't really know what to say  about the FO addressing the needs of the team  ...

They will probably do the opposite  of what the fans think are right  ...

Gallo was a head scratcher this offseason  , why did we acquire him , he's had bad production his past couple of years but they saw something in him just like they see something in pagan and Kepler   ...

If the FO does anything it will probably be another head scratcher unless they unload the 3 mentioned above  ...

[Nine of twelve]

Keep in mind that buying at the deadline means overpaying. I think the Twins should and will largely stand pat and hope their hitters improve up to their potential. If the hitters are able to do that the division is ours. I wouldn't be surprised to see a bullpen arm added but if Maeda can perform well in relief he may be that addition. I don't think there are any targets out there that would be worth overpaying for at this point.

Regarding catcher, in spite of what the Royals' front office says it would not surprise me for someone to make an offer for Perez that is too good for them to turn down. We will not be that team. If KC could be persuaded to take Vazquez I might try to put something together but again it's not worth it for us to overpay.

[mickster]

Chapman from KC would be a great get - but he gets more expensive the closer the deadline gets.    KC is in a major rebuild and maybe a couple of low level prospects might do the trick - waiting until the end of July and the talent required to get him will be much higher

[Blyleven2011]

23 minutes ago, bighat said:

The biggest "win" at the deadline will be if the team stays put or sells. There's absolutely no reason to gut the farm system for guys like Trevor Mahle again. The team is far too flawed to have one or two guys come in and fix things, they need at least 5-6 new players on offense starting every day to even remotely be considered a contender. You can't do that at the deadline. 

Frankly I'd like to see them sell. If they can get something for Polanco, now's the time to do it. If the Twins can still get anything for Larnach, I'd be in favor of doing that as well. And heck, if you're not going to let Buxton play CF, trade him and his team-friendly contract as well for prospects. Or at least consider it and listen to offers. Someone out there would kill to put Bux in CF tomorrow. 

Get return prospects who can hit and make contact. DFA dead weight like Kep and Pagan (you can't trade what nobody wants) Let Kirilloff, Lewis, and Eddie Julien play every day and bring up guys like Austin Martin and Balazovic for a cup of coffee and see if there's anything there. Clock's ticking on those guys and it's possible they are just blocking other talented players at this point.

They should sell because this is a bad team, folks. It's time to stop kidding yourselves. 

It's a bad team because the smartest management in the room made it   ...

[TwinsDr2021]

First let me say I believe there is ZERO chance of going after Goldschmidt, Soto or Ohtani.

Second, I don't believe this FO has the backing of the fans to sellers at the deadline. Imagine how empty Target field could be next year with the way 19 ended (sweep), 20 ended (sweep), how 21 went (horrible), how 22 ended (embarrassing), and if 23 falls apart and they are sellers. So I don't see them as sellers. I also don't see much of prospect capital to go out and be big buyers (besides Lee I am not sure the Twins have anybody to headline a trade) but I could see them sell off a few pieces and acquire other pieces. Players like Larnach, Wallner, Martin, and maybe Miranda could be used to go get a decent outfielder with some control. None of these guys are young (I mean like real prospect young) and some haven't done anything sustained in majors yet so they probably won't return what most think they will. Those are 4 guys taking up 40 man spots (Martin next year) they aren't contributing much to the major league team and at some point they have to cut bait,

[TwinsDr2021]

30 minutes ago, bighat said:

Frankly I'd like to see them sell.

If they turn into sellers to reload or rebuild, I want the FO fired!

[bighat]

1 minute ago, TwinsDr2021 said:

If they turn into sellers to reload or rebuild, I want the FO fired!

I understand. 

I feel that way currently watching the product on the field. And there's no way that trading for a bat, a bench player and a bullpen arm is going to fix this team in 2022. They need way more than that. 

No reason to mortgage the future for a team that isn't going anywhere. 

[Blyleven2011]

2 minutes ago, bighat said:

I understand. 

I feel that way currently watching the product on the field. And there's no way that trading for a bat, a bench player and a bullpen arm is going to fix this team in 2022. They need way more than that. 

No reason to mortgage the future for a team that isn't going anywhere. 

Are we back to 2022 again  , you just saved me 1 year of my life ,  the way the twins have been playing they have shortened my life by 10 years ... 

It's 2023 but I'll still party like it's 1999 ...