Nick Nelson

Image courtesy of Reese Strickland-Imagn Images The Weekly Nutshell: The Twins need to get on a run. The past week was the latest instance of their inability to do so. It's a recurring cycle: one impressive breakout game is followed by one or two non-competitive duds to damper any momentum. The Twins have had just one winning streak of more than two games since the All-Star break, and are 1-4 following a win here in the month of August. They've lost five straight one-run games, two of them walk-offs, and have fallen to five games below .500 after getting swept at home by the Phillies. The Twins are doing enough to hang around in an undifferentiated AL field, but they're not doing enough to inspire confidence that they can rise above the pack with six weeks remaining. Can their rotation and lineup awaken before the clock strikes midnight? Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/10 through Sun, 8/16 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 60-65) Run Differential Last Week: -13 (Overall: -48) Standing: 4th Place in AL Central (6.0 GB); 1.5 games out of WC Latest Game Results Game 120 | MIN 9, BAL 5: Kremer Dominates His Former Team as Bats Break Out Kremer: 7 IP, 1 ER, 1 H, 1 BB, 7 K Game 121 | BAL 5, MIN 2: Twins Strand 10 Runners, Ober Gives Up Three Bombs Ober: 6 IP, 5 ER, 8 H, 1 BB, 4 K, 3 HR Game 122 | MIN 7, BAL 5: Offense Keeps Punching Back in Series-Clinching Win Bell: 3-5, RBI Game 123 | PHI 7, MIN 1: Dire Showing From Offense in Dyersville, Bradley Stumbles Lewis, Clemens, Lee: 0-12, 6 K Game 124 | PHI 9, MIN 1: Prielipp Unravels in Fifth as Offense No-Shows Once Again Prielipp: 5 IP, 8 ER, 8 H, 4 BB, 6 K Game 125 | PHI 7. MIN 5: Phillies Erase Five-Run Lead to Clinch Devastating Sweep Morris: 1 IP, 3 ER, 4 H, 1 BB, 0 K NEWS & NOTES Byron Buxton's return from the injured list could not have been much more cinematically compelling. Buxton came walking out of the cornfields in Dyersville, IA, to participate in the Field of Dreams Game on Thursday night — his first game action since July 28th following his second hip-related IL stint of the season. This time, like last, he skipped a rehab and jumped right back onto the active roster. Buxton served as 27th man for Thursday's game (a specialized rule for this event), but on Saturday the Twins designated third catcher Alex Jackson for assignment to formally make room. The front office delayed this inevitability as long as they could, fearing they'll lose the out-of-options Jackson on waivers, but no longer could hold off. We'll see if he gets claimed or makes it through within the coming days. Right-handed pitcher Taylor Rashi, himself DFA'ed a week earlier, was claimed off waivers by the Athletics. He never made an appearance in a Twins uniform, posting a 4.76 ERA in 15 appearances for the Saints. On the flip side, Minnesota added back some pitching depth by signing veteran righty Germán Márquez to a minor-league deal. He was a solid pitcher for Colorado back in the day, an All-Star in 2021, but the 31-year-old has faded in recent years. I would expect we'll see him up in the majors before the year is through, even if just as a bullpen filler arm for September. HIGHLIGHTS Dean Kremer was impressive in his first start as a Twin, tossing five innings of one-run ball in Kansas City on August 5th. But his second start and Target Field debut last Monday was nothing short of brilliant. Going against the team that had traded 10 days earlier, Kremer completely stymied the Orioles over seven innings of three-hit ball. He allowed only one run, and he didn't even really allow it — Gunnar Henderson scored on a double-steal for the lone tally. Kremer was cruising again on Sunday in his third start as a Twin, holding the Phillies scoreless through five innings, before hitting a wall in the sixth and letting four across. Despite the rocky ending, he has certainly reversed course after switching teams, allowing six runs through 17 ⅓ innings as a Twin (3.12 ERA) after allowing 16 earned runs in 14 innings in his final three starts with Baltimore. I'm hesitant to read into that too much, given the sample size and how streaky baseball players can be, but it's a great first impression, and there's reason to believe the Twins have had some influence on his turnaround. The bullpen started and ended the week on hiccups, courtesy of Travis Adams, Taylor Rogers and Andrew Morris. (And the defense, naturally.) In between they were mostly lockdown, allowing four runs in 16 innings across four contests. But only in one of those games — Wednesday's 7-5 win over Baltimore — were their efforts particularly consequential. It's a good reminder that a good bullpen doesn't do much for you when you can't build leads, which is the paradox of Minnesota's deadline upgrades. On the offensive side, Luke Keaschall is leading the way as he builds on a resurgent second half. He went 6-for-17 with a homer, two doubles and four walks. He's inching up in the batting order, now usually slotting sixth or seventh after spending much of the season near the bottom, and is making a strong case to be hitting higher yet. Keaschall entered play Sunday slashing .308/.423/.474 since the All-Star break, good for a .395 wOBA that led all Twins by 35 points and ranked 18th among all MLB hitters. Some other notable performances at the plate: Ryan Jeffers went 6-for-16 with two doubles and three RBIs. Royce Lewis was 7-for-22 with three doubles and three RBIs. Brooks Lee went 8-for-24 with a pair of doubles and a grand slam. Josh Bell came through with a big three-run homer on Monday as part of a seven-hit week. And at last, Alan Roden broke out of his funk with a three-hit game on Wednesday that included a pair of doubles. With the exception of Roden, that is basically the same select group of hitters contributing lately on offense while far too many key bats remain dormant. LOWLIGHTS It was not terribly surprising to see Bailey Ober get lit up for five earned runs on Tuesday against the Orioles, who teed off for a home run in each of the first three innings. What's surprising is that this doesn't happen more often. Ober has struggled to ramp his fastball into even the upper-80s of late, but through pure execution and guile he had managed to post a respectable 4.10 ERA with only two home runs allowed in his first five starts off the injured list. That execution was not there in his latest start, with Ober hanging several pitches that were absolutely clobbered, including a moonshot off the bat of former Twins prospect Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Ober was one of several culprits on a staff that looked downright terrible, surrendering 38 runs (all earned) on 59 hits and 22 walks across the six games. The Joe Ryan-less starting stable shows signs of falling apart as we move into the stretch run. Taj Bradley got knocked around in the Field of Dreams Game for five earned runs in four innings, his shortest outing since May. Connor Prielipp melted down in the fifth inning on Saturday, turning a 1-0 deficit into an insurmountable 8-0 by giving up three singles, three walks and a back-breaking three-run homer. It was somewhat bizarre to see him left out there flapping in the wind by manager Derek Shelton, given the stakes of the game and the mounting workload concerns for Prielipp. Shelton's slow hook for Kremer the following day also raised some eyebrows. Meanwhile, with the exception of a few standouts, the all-or-nothing Twins lineup continues to hold the team back. They had strong showings on Monday, Wednesday and Sunday, totaling 21 runs across those three contests, but were held to two or fewer in the the other three games, giving the team no real chance at a victory. Even on Sunday, when they jumped on Andrew Painter for five runs on two early swings, the Twins were not particularly effective at putting runners on and pushing them across, shutting down after the third inning. In their four losses, Minnesota's offense went 3-for-34 with runners in scoring position, stranding 36 runners on base. The penchant for clutchness that buoyed this unit in the first half of the season has largely vanished, and along with it, the team's ability to produce runs on any kind of consistent basis. The Twins entered play Sunday with the fifth-fewest runs scored in the majors since the break, after scoring the sixth-most prior. It's nice to have Buxton back but he doesn't really seem to be "back" in any meaningful sense. He is very obviously limited by rust, lingering injury effects, or some combination of both. Buxton went 1-for-12 including a three-strikeout game on Sunday, and hasn't driven in a run since July 4th. Trevor Larnach, who was one of the team's best hitters in the first half alongside Buxton, has also gone silent, though the steady stream of opposing lefty starters is limiting his opportunities somewhat. He tallied four singles and a walk in 19 plate appearances. Kody Clemens hit a solo homer on Sunday, but went 2-for-14 otherwise and is batting .149 in August. He has the lowest on-base percentage of any MLB hitter over the past two months. Ryan Kreidler is finding himself in the lineup far too often for a guy with a .438 OPS since the start of July. Neither the starting rotation nor starting lineup is warranting much confidence at all. The defense, while somewhat improved, remains prone to multiple headshake-inducing displays every game. And the bullpen showed on Sunday it's far from infallible. Tough to win when there is no concrete strength you can hang your hat on. TRENDING STORYLINE It feels like this season is slipping away away. The Twins aren't playing blatantly horrible baseball — they've been winning games here and there, avoiding prolonged losing streaks to stay within range of .500 — but they're not playing well enough to make up any ground, and the clock is ticking down as we enter the latter half of August. They've slid to six games out in the division, their biggest gap since early June, with Detroit emerging as the prime threat to Chicago in the Central. But the Twins are still technically very much alive in the crowded Wild Card mix, one of five teams that entered play on Sunday within a game of the final spot. Yes, they are "in it." At some point, though, you've got to stop looking at what's happening around you and start to look inward. Currently Minnesota is on a 78-win pace. That's not gonna do it. In order to win 83 games, which is the bare minimum for legitimacy in my opinion, they would need to 23-14 the rest of the way. That's a 100-win full-season pace. Not impossible, especially with a relatively soft remaining schedule, but the Twins have shown no real capability to play at that level over any sustained period of time, and lately they've simply looked like a bad team. If they're going to make the push required, they're going to need to put it all on the line. With the trade deadline in the rearview, there aren't a whole lot of levers the front office can still pull, but two options stick out in Triple-A. One is Kendry Rojas. He's one of the most electric arms in the organization and there's seemingly little reason to have him stashed at Triple-A while the season hangs on the brink. The left-hander has been lights-out since returning to the Saints, with a 0.82 ERA and 11-to-2 K/BB ratio in 11 innings. He started twice against the Iowa Cubs this past week (Tuesday and Saturday) and allowed just one run on a solo homer. Rojas is being somewhat stretched out to start, although the Twins don't seem inclined to push him much past the 50-pitch range. That's fine, they can find a role for him in that capacity. He's far from a lock to come up and dominate — we've seen how the control can come and go — but the Twins staff could desperately use some juice with Ryan sidelined, Prielipp wearing down and Zebby Matthews looking thoroughly mediocre. On the hitting side, you have Walker Jenkins. He's a consensus top-20 prospect in baseball, and by nearly every account, he's showing readiness to take the next step. His recent stats help make the case; Jenkins has an OPS over .900 since coming off the injured list in late June, and his past week was another impressive one: 7-for-17 with a home run, a double, three walks and two steals. You can't simply expect that an untested rookie is going to come up and be a heroic world-beater — Kaelen Culpepper's slowish start is a good prompt to temper expectations — but Jenkins has the tools and makeup to hit the ground running. He represents one of the few clear advantages the Twins have compared to other contenders running alongside them in the postseason race. Very few teams have a prospect with this kind of upside and potential impact sitting in Triple-A, ready to go. There's open room on the 40-man roster with the Jackson DFA. (Kyler Fedko, out for the season with a knee injury, can also easily be shifted to the 60-day IL.) So that's not an issue. Finding room for Jenkins in the lineup regularly isn't necessarily quite as straightforward with Buxton back in the mix, but it's also not rocket science. Use Buxton at DH frequently. Strongly deprioritize Roden. Shift Keaschall back to second base on occasion. Do what it takes to get one of most dynamic talents in your organization on the field with everything on the line. The more the Twins wait, the more unserious their aspirations for postseason contention come to look. LOOKING AHEAD The Twins have faced three National League contenders since the All-Star break. They've lost all three of those series, dropping two of three against Cubs and Brewers before getting swept by the Phillies. With two more matchups against playoff-minded NL clubs ahead, can Minnesota finally get over the hump and put together a winning week? They desperately need it to set themselves up for the season-defining stretch that follows: three games against the last-place Athletics followed by 15 straight against the three other teams in the AL Central race: Chicago (6), Detroit (6), Cleveland (3). MONDAY, AUGUST 17: BRAVES @ TWINS — LHP Martin Perez v. RHP Bailey Ober TUESDAY, AUGUST 18: BRAVES @ TWINS —RHP Tyler Mahle v. RHP Zebby Matthews WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 19: BRAVES @ TWINS — LHP Chris Sale v. RHP Taj Bradley FRIDAY, AUGUST 21: TWINS @ PADRES — LHP Connor Prielipp v. RHP Randy Vasquez SATURDAY, AUGUST 22: TWINS @ PADRES — RHP Dean Kremer v. RHP Casey Mize SUNDAY, AUGUST 23: TWINS @ PADRES — RHP Bailey Ober v. RHP Walker Buehler View full article

Good catch, I accidentally listed # of successful stolen bases as the denominator instead of SB attempts. It's been updated! (He's 5-for-13)

Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images Just over a month ago, on July 11th, the Twins selected Georgia Tech catcher Vahn Lackey with the third overall pick in the MLB Draft. It was a momentous occasion, marking the seventh time in Twins history — third in the last 25 years — that they've had a top-three draft pick. Lackey instantly became one of the stars in the system and one of the most compelling prospects in the minors. Here's a (very) early look at how his professional career has unfolded since the Twins called his name. A Historic Signing Bonus After selecting him third overall, behind Roch Cholowsky and Grady Emerson, the Twins wasted little time getting Lackey signed and into the organization. Within 10 days of the draft, the club had signed its entire class, including Lackey who received a $9,497,500 bonus. While slightly below slot ($9.7M), it was briefly the second-largest in MLB history (behind Cholowsky) before Emerson signed and pushed him to third. This isn't all that noteworthy because, as the sentence above indicates, these records are basically reset at the top of the draft every year. Still, a fun factoid. Signing Lackey slightly under-slot helped the Twins spread their draft pool around — combined with the under-slot deal they struck with second-rounder Carson Tinney, it helped enabled Minnesota to reel in third-round pitcher Ethan Wachmann for more than double his slot value at $2.25 million. “Just a great fit for our organization, on every front. Fantastic player, fantastic human being, great character.” - Twins scouting director Sean Johnson on Lackey (via MLB) An Emphatic Arrival in Prospect Rankings In Twins Daily's top prospect tracker (voted on by our creator community), Lackey immediately jumped in at No. 2, behind only Walker Jenkins. In a high-caliber farm system like this one — ranked sixth in baseball by FanGraphs — that's a strong place to debut. In Baseball America's latest prospect rankings, Lackey is also behind only Jenkins among Twins prospects, ranking 23rd overall (three spots ahead of recently-promoted Kaelen Culpepper). Jenkins ranks 10th, putting him at the elite prospect tier, while Lackey is right on the borderline. Keith Law of The Athletic is slightly more bullish on Lackey, ranking him 20th — one spot behind Jenkins, and one spot ahead of Cholowsky. MLB Pipeline has yet to release their post-draft update, but for context, last year they ranked third overall pick Kade Anderson 22nd overall in mid-August, nearly identical to where Lackey initially finds himself on the BA and Athletic boards. Anderson, a left-handed pitcher in the Seattle system, has been a quick riser and is now up to fifth overall in MLB Pipeline's current rankings. On the flip side, the No. 3 pick in 2024, Charlie Condon, debuted at 12th in those rankings (ahead of even first overall pick Travis Bazzana) but has struggled enough since to fall to 69th. Despite being drafted as a college star, Condon is the only player from the top nine of the class who's yet to reach the majors. Just a reminder that pre-draft hype is what it is, and that's really all we have to go on so far for Lackey, who has barely played in the minors yet. But there is a small sample's worth of performance to analyze. "Lackey might end up a plus defensive catcher with plus power and a plus hit tool, which may as well be a jackalope given how rare that profile is." - Keith Law, The Athletic Early Results in the Minors Shortly after signing, Lackey was assigned to Low-A Fort Myers, where he made his pro debut on July 30th. In his first game, the 21-year-old flashed a couple of his highly touted tools, drawing two walks and stealing a base. Since then he's played nine more games, and in that short time, it's been his defense more than his offense making highlight reels. Through 46 plate appearances, Lackey is batting .206 with only three extra-base hits, the first of which was a grounder chopped down the third-base line for a double. He's holding his own mainly thanks to a disciplined approach yielding an 11-to-8 K/BB ratio and .391 on-base percentage. What's really been eye-catching about Lackey in his initial action is the defense, and specifically his throws from behind the plate. Opponents have attempted 13 steals already against Lackey and he's gunned down five of them (38%), backing up his rep as a cannon-armed controller of the run game. The dude pops up and throws absolute peas. Much like on the offensive side, the sample is far too small to be worthy of drawing any serious conclusions, but it's a good reminder of Lackey's legit defensive skill set, which makes him nearly a lock to remain at catcher with Gold Glove potential. That element of his game is hugely important, because it will keep Lackey high on prospect lists even if his bat is a little slower to develop. What's Next for Lackey I would consider it unlikely that Lackey remains at the Low-A level much longer. Fort Myers is a fine place to get his feet wet, especially given it's the location of the organization's minor-league complex, but it's also a fairly conservative assignment for a top-three draft pick out of college. He could move up to High-A Cedar Rapids in the near future. The seasons for both Fort Myers and Cedar Rapids run only through the first week of September. Double-A Wichita goes through the second week, and Triple-A St. Paul the third. Is it possible the Twins could give Lackey a late-season taste of the high minors, as they did with Brooks Lee when he played a couple of games in Double-A in 2022? Either way, he'll be set to open up his first full professional season at Wichita, as Lee did. From there, the major leagues is really only a step away, making a 2027 MLB debut plausible. A more likely scenario is that comes up in his second full season, as Lee did, but either way, Lackey's advanced talent and polished will enable him to hop on the fast track if he's up to it. View full article

Image courtesy of Mike Watters-Imagn Images Twins prospect Emmanuel Rodriguez was activated from the injured list earlier this week and returned to the St. Paul Saints roster after missing more than three months with a thumb injury that required surgery. With less than two months remaining in the season, Rodriguez will look to hit the ground running and make up for lost time. The clock is ticking on his last year in the minors and unfortunately, the Twins have been able to learn very little about the 23-year-old's readiness. Patience is a central aspect of Rodriguez's game. His ability to take pitches and draw walks is almost unparalleled in the professional ranks. It's why has a .425 career on-base percentage in the minors, and a big part of why he's been viewed as one of the better prospects in the game — top 100 entering this year according to Baseball Prospectus (#48), Baseball America (#57) and MLB Pipeline (#74). Twins Daily had him ranked #3 in the Minnesota system, noting that he sported "one of the weirdest, most fascinating offensive profiles in baseball." During his time on the field in 2026, Rodriguez has put that profile on full display, slashing .270/.432/.487 in 34 games spent mostly with the Saints. But the outfielder also missed three months after undergoing surgery for a torn thumb ligament suffered while sliding into first base. It's far from the first time he's dealt with thumb issues in an injury-riddled career, and this latest instance bears extra weight at a time where the Twins really needed to see what they have in Rodriguez. When it comes to their ultra-patient outfield prospect, patience is no longer a luxury the Twins can afford on their end. That's because, as Aaron Gleeman recently covered on his website, Rodriguez will be out of options next spring, meaning the Twins will need to either carry him on the major-league roster or expose him to waivers and lose him. Sometimes in cases like this an extra option year is granted due to time lost on the IL, but Gleeman reports, "a league source with knowledge of the formula used to determine eligibility tells me he wouldn't qualify unless the rules change as part of a new Collective Bargaining Agreement." If that remains true, then the Twin will find themselves in a difficult spot, essentially forced to carry Rodriguez on the active roster out of camp if he's healthy. And if he's on the roster, he's going to need to be starting regularly, in an already-crowded outfield mix that includes Byron Buxton, Trevor Larnach (?), Luke Keaschall, Alan Roden, Austin Martin and soon enough, Walker Jenkins. The implications extend well beyond Rodriguez himself. Knowing they'll have little flexibility with him next spring, should the Twins be more motivated to trade Rodriguez this offseason? Or does his situation make it more important to move another outfielder and clear a runway for him? More immediately, should they accelerate his arrival this season, giving him at least a taste of the majors rather than asking him to break camp next year as an untested rookie with no safety net? That last consideration feels especially relevant given Rodriguez's unusual and volatile offensive profile. The huge power and elite patience give him tremendous upside, but the swing-and-miss could also make for a steep adjustment against major-league pitching. There's a plausible version of his future where Rodriguez becomes a middle-of-the-order force, but getting there might require some ugly stretches along the way. We've arrived at just what makes the lack of options so uncomfortable. What happens if the Twins enter next season expecting to contend and Rodriguez is batting .150 at the end of April? They can't simply send him to St. Paul to work through it. They'd either need to keep absorbing the growing pains or risk losing a talented 23-year-old for nothing. Maybe Rodriguez will make the whole issue moot by hitting his way into the Twins' plans over these final weeks, and leaving little doubt next spring. But after years of patiently waiting for his development to unfold, Minnesota is approaching a point where his roster status could start making decisions for them. The Twins need to use the time they have left this year — and the offseason that follows — to make sure they're not caught without a plan when that clock finally runs out. View full article

The fact that the decision has essentially been made for them does not mean they are in a good spot. Personally I thought trading Ryan — either at the deadline or in the offseason — was the obvious best course of action. I mean just look at the offer they rejected from Boston last year, franchise-changing. The way he was pitching as of a month ago would've opened up some pretty exciting possibilities. They are loaded on starting pitching depth going forward to absorb his loss. Alas, their leverage in any kind of trade talks has plummeted.

As the person on editing duty today, I'll wear this. The way I read it (and the way I'm sure Cody meant it) was "Joe Ryan's inability to hold up in the second half year after year puts the Twins in a tough spot." But I can see how it would read as unfairly accusatory. Obviously he's not trying to break down like this time and again.

What I struggle with is many of his plate appearances continuing to be so egregiously bad. Still seems like a lot of guesswork up there even when he's swinging well. Lewis has a 1.025 OPS in his last 12 games but a 15-to-1 K/BB ratio. As Sam notes in the article, the Twins don't need Lewis to necessarily keep up at this rate, but they can't have him go back in the tank. That kind of plate discipline lends itself to extended slumps.

Image courtesy of Jeff Hanisch-Imagn Images The Weekly Nutshell: The Twins swung a big trade on Monday, capping an active deadline stretch that saw three newcomers join the pitching staff. Unfortunately, Minnesota's play on the field was far less inspired. They were six outs away from getting swept in Kansas City before rallying to take a late lead in the finale. They followed a series-opening win in Milwaukee with back-to-back one-run losses, falling back to three games under .500 and losing ground in the postseason race. Since very briefly holding a winning record at the end of July, the Twins have stumbled badly, dropping six of their last eight. The offense is sputtering and the biggest stars are MIA. With 43 games remaining, the pressure is on for this club to get on track and reverse its downward trend. They are hoping the promotion of one of their top prospects can provide a helpful jolt. Weekly Snapshot: Mon, 8/3 through Sun, 8/9 *** Record Last Week: 2-4 (Overall: 58-61) Run Differential Last Week: -6 (Overall: -35) Standing: T-3rd Place in AL Central (3.5 GB); 1.5 games out of WC Latest Game Results Game 114 | KC 8, MIN 2: Royals Take Control From Start to Finish, Ryan Struggles Ryan: 5.1 IP, 5 R (4 ER), 7 H, 2 BB, 3 K Game 115 | KC 2, MIN 1: Offense Smothered by Cameron Again in 4th Straight Loss Twins offense: 2-29, 0 XBH, 1 BB, 10 K Game 116 | MIN 4, KC 3: Another Late-Game Comeback Steers Twins Clear of Sweep Twins bullpen: 3 IP, 0 R, 1 H, 1 BB, 4 K Game 117 | MIN 8, MIL 6: Twins Rally Back from Early Deficit, Bullpen Hangs On Bell: 4-5, HR, 3 RBI Game 118 | MIL 4, MIN 3: Early Lead Disappears in Middle Innings, Hoffman Takes Loss Lewis: 2-4, 2 RBI Game 119 | MIL 4, MIN 3 (10): Brewers Take Game, Series Behind Key Defensive Plays Clemens: 1-4, HR, 2 RBI NEWS & NOTES The Twins made only one move on deadline day but it was a significant one, sending a three-prospect package headlined by Dasan Hill to the Blue Jays in exchange for veteran reliever Jeff Hoffman. The righty Hoffman joins A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer as outside reinforcements for a pitching staff that Jeremy Zoll and the front office bolstered semi-aggressively, as the Twins look to make a run from within this unspectacular American League field. Kendry Rojas was optioned and Cody Laweryson designated for assignment to make room for Hoffman, who immediately becomes the team's best reliever. The added rotation depth provided by Kremer's acquisition came in handy quickly when Joe Ryan landed on the injured list following another sub-par start in Kansas City on Tuesday. Openly exasperated with his physical limitations, Ryan was sent home for an exam and diagnosed with a mild glute strain, helping explain why his performance has taken a sharp downward turn of late. Zebby Matthews, optioned the previous week to make room for Kremer, returned to the Twins rotation before even making a start at Triple-A. The Twins didn't make any offensive additions at the deadline, but they sought a boost internally by promoting one of their top prospects in Kaelen Culpepper. The infielder was called up from Triple-A ahead of Friday's series opener in Milwaukee, with Tristan Gray optioned to the minors to make room. Culpepper started at shortstop and batted seventh in his debut. HIGHLIGHTS Culpepper started his MLB career with a bang, launching a solo home run in his second at-bat on Friday night to draw the Twins within one run in an eventual victory. On an 0-2 pitch, Culpepper took Brewers starter Shane Drohan deep to left-center for a 390-feet blast. Welcome to the big leagues, kid. I'm eager to see a lot more. Royce Lewis kicked things off in Kansas City with a four-hit night, then went on to add a homer and two doubles over the remainder of the week, extending his hitting streak to 13 games before an 0-fer snapped it on Sunday. Lewis has notched six extra-base hits and driven in seven runs across eight games this month, providing a rare spark for a lineup that's otherwise struggling to find big hits. Josh Bell enjoyed a four-hit game of his own, on Friday night in Milwaukee, and homered twice during the week to break out of a prolonged power slump. Bell had gone a full month in between home runs before taking Royals reliever Steven Cruz deep on Tuesday. Hopefully he's about to get locked into another hot streak, because the team could really use it. The freshly reinforced bullpen continued to look like the strength of the roster, allowing six earned runs in 20 innings for a 2.70 ERA. Slim margins for error meant that Hoffman and Yoendrys Gómez were tagged with losses on Saturday and Sunday by allowing one run apiece, but they mostly looked good, as did the rest of the relief corps. Kody Funderburk threw 4 ⅔ scoreless innings with eight strikeouts and one walk; he's given up one run in his past 15 appearances. Tommy Nance made three shutout appearances and has a 1.74 ERA since being acquired. Andrew Morris didn't allow a run in his 2 ⅔ innings of work, lowering his ERA to 3.09 for the season. It makes sense that the Twins focused mainly on relief upgrades at the deadline, given their overall talent level there, but the bullpen has strongly outpaced the rotation and lineup over the past month-plus and that continued to be the case last week. The Twins are staying in a lot of close games thanks to this unit, which has consistently shown that if handed leads it can hold them. LOWLIGHTS Leads are tough to come by. The offense is struggling to get anything going, especially against opposing starters. Thursday's finale against the Royals marked the ninth consecutive time an opposing team held the Twins to two or fewer runs through the first six innings. They managed to score three in the eighth of that one to come back and avoid a sweep, but have become far too dependent on those types of dramatic late-game rallies to ever win a game. Kody Clemens has authored a few of those big game-changing knocks, and added another on Sunday with his game-tying two-run homer, but prior to that he was 2-for-22 on the week and his OBP has sunk to .287. Brooks Lee also homered on Sunday but was 1-for-14 coming into the game and his OPS is sagging back toward the 600s. Victor Caratini was 2-for-11 and hasn't homered since June. Alan Roden went 1-for-7 and is running a .527 OPS in his latest stint with the Twins. Minnesota's best hitters are either injured (Byron Buxton) or mildly slumping — Ryan Jeffers was 3-for-19 last week and Trevor Larnach 1-for-11. Save for the modest hot streaks from Lewis and Bell, no one's picking up the slack in a lineup that constantly shortcircuits. The timely-hitting magic that elevated the offense's results in the first half has predictably dried up, as demonstrated over the weekend (2-for-18 with RISP on Saturday and Sunday). It was profoundly frustrating to watch the Twins lineup get shut down by Randy Dobnak and Noah Cameron at Kauffman Stadium five days after they did the same at Target Field. These are not exceptional pitchers and you'd like to think Minnesota's hitters and coaches would come up with some sort of plan seeing them both in such short succession. Alas, the Twins had no answers, scoring just two runs in 13 innings against the Royals starters in a pair of losses to clinch the season series for KC. Four of six games in the past week were decided by one run, and six of the past eight. On the one hand, with margins being this tight, one could reasonably surmise the Twins were just a few missed swings or lucky breaks away from going 6-3 on this road trip instead of 3-6. On the other hand, they've been getting generally outplayed, and clutch late-game heroics have bailed them out several times. The Twins could have easily gone 0-6 against the Royals over the past two weeks on merit. That's tough stuff against a team pacing for 95 losses. Upgrades to the bullpen aren't going to be meaningful if the offense can't find some life and start building some leads here and there. TRENDING STORYLINE The Twins are a fringe playoff contender, tied with Cleveland for the eighth-best record in the AL. They are one of six teams within four games of a Wild Card spot. They've now fallen behind the Tigers in the Central standings. In order to have a shot at making the dance, they're going to win significantly more than they lose the rest of the way. Can they hang in there with their two best players sidelined indefinitely? Buxton received an injection in his ailing hip and there's no clear timeline in place for his return. Ryan's glute injury was deemed relatively minor but it was enough to land him on the IL so he'll miss a couple weeks at least, and who knows what kind of effectiveness level can be expected when he's back on the mound. The Twins are in a tough place, compelled to show patience and get both Buxton and Ryan as healthy as possible while also recognizing that the team's hopes for this season hang in the balance. Every game matters and the absence of Minnesota's two All-Stars is deeply felt. Culpepper's arrival will hopefully help awaken the Buxton-less lineup, but if the Twins really want to push their chips in, they need to find a way to get Walker Jenkins to the big leagues. Jenkins homered twice for the Saints on Thursday and is batting .357 this month. He's ready, and he's talented enough to make a real impact on Minnesota's fortunes. LOOKING AHEAD With their latest nine-game road trip in the books, the Twins return home with two three-game series slated for the coming week, although one of the "home games" (on Thursday) will actually take place in Iowa for the Field of Dreams Game. The Orioles should present a pretty even match-up for the Twins, with nearly identical records and run differentials. The difficulty level only goes up from there, with the Phillies (63-56) followed on the schedule by the Braves (71-47) and Padres (61-57). Can the Twins survive this gauntlet through some of the National League's finest teams? We'll find out. But first they need to take care of business against Baltimore. MONDAY, AUGUST 10: ORIOLES @ TWINS — LHP Trevor Rogers v. RHP Dean Kremer TUESDAY, AUGUST 11: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Brandon Young v. RHP Bailey Ober WEDNESDAY, AUGUST 12: ORIOLES @ TWINS — RHP Shane Baz v. RHP Zebby Matthews THURSDAY, AUGUST 13: PHILLIES @ TWINS — RHP Aaron Nola v. RHP Taj Bradley SATURDAY, AUGUST 15: PHILLIES @ TWINS — LHP Jesus Luzardo v. LHP Connor Prielipp SUNDAY, AUGUST 16: PHILLIES @ TWINS — RHP Andrew Painter v. RHP Dean Kremer View full article

Image courtesy of Troy Taormina, Kevin Sousa-Imagn Images The Twins came into this trade deadline with one clear mandate: add a high-caliber righty reliever to the back end of their bullpen. Yes, they made other additions to bolster the depth of their staff in A.J. Minter and Dean Kremer, but the big prize was always going to be a premier arm that could slot into the late innings alongside — or ahead of — Yoendrys Gómez and Andrew Morris. They thought they had their guy in Bryan Abreu of the Astros. Unsubstantiated rumors later turned into confirmed reports that Minnesota and Houston had a deal in place sending over Trevor Larnach in exchange for Abreu, only to have it nixed by Astros owner Jim Crane in the final stages. So the Twins evidently pivoted, turning their attention toward pushing talks across the finish line for Blue Jays reliever Jeff Hoffman. At the end of the day, the sum result is fairly similar in terms of player acquired. The Twins landed a veteran reliever with dominant stuff, an excellent track record, and plenty of experience pitching in big situations. Either one would have done the trick. Since 2023, Hoffman ranks 15th among MLB relievers in fWAR with a 3.22 ERA and 3.21 FIP; Abreu ranks 17th with a 2.72 ERA and 3.31 FIP. Both have seen their stock drop a little this year — Abreu more so, as he's run into walk and home run troubles — but both have also quelled any performance concerns with strong recent runs. All other things being equal, you'd probably lean toward Hoffman, mainly because he has an additional year of control extending into 2027. But it's close. Either one would have satisfied the biggest need Minnesota's front office sought to address. The difference is in the diverging paths required to get there, and implications for the organization going forward. It's pretty rare that we get the tea on a trade that fell through in the manner we did with this Abreu effort, but since it's out there, we can weigh its merits alongside the deal that actually ended up getting done. Larnach has one remaining year of control and is likely on the verge of exiting the Twins' plans in a crowded outfield mix. He's creating a bit of a logjam as upcoming players like Walker Jenkins vie for opportunities, but Larnach has also been one of the team's most important players to up to this point, ranking second among Twins position players in fWAR. Trading him would embody the idea of threading a needle between buying and selling. You run the risk of somewaht weakening an offensive unit that already shows signs of regression, but at the same time, you address your top priority without sacrificing any real future value. With their pivot to Hoffman, the Twins steered much harder into a traditional "buy" posture. They kept Larnach, along with everyone else on the big-league roster, but at real future expense. The headliner of a three-player package sent to Toronto is Dasan Hill, who was arguably the best pitching prospect in the organization and one of the higher-upside lefties to ever come through this system. Twins Daily named Hill the Twins' minor-league starting pitcher of the year in 2025, and had him ranked as Minnesota's #6 prospect entering this season, behind only the now-graduated Connor Prielipp among pitchers. We described the former second-rounder as "Oozing top-of-rotation potential after fanning 83 over 62 IP in first season out of HS." Though his own stock has ticked down a bit this year amid major control issues, Hill's upside remains undeniable. He was at #9 on our prospect tracker before the trade, still top 10 and one of just four pitchers among the top 15. That's a real loss, but one that might not be fully felt at the moment because he's 20, unrefined, and still years away from MLB readiness. It's the kind of move an all-in contender makes without blinking. For the Twins, who are straddling the line between contending and rebuilding, it's far from a no-brainer. Trading Larnach for Abreu would have carried minimal future implications, good or bad. Abreu, an impending free agent, wasn't going to be here next year and Larnach probably won't either. The pivot to Hill-for-Hoffman is a much more consequential decision. Hoffman is under contract next year, which does add more value but also entails its own level of risk: a 34-year-old relief pitcher making $8 million (even with Toronto paying down part of his salary) is hardly some surefire proposition. In fact it runs counter to the general philosophy of a Twins team that has rarely dedicated that kind of payroll to any single reliever. By changing course in their pursuit of a legit late-inning arm, even if not necessarily by their own volition, the Twins radically altered the risk/reward stakes of their biggest deadline move. Whether they ultimately chose this path or simply adapted to the one left available, the failed Abreu deal may prove every bit as significant as the Hoffman trade itself. If Hoffman helps anchor a playoff push over the next two seasons, surrendering Dasan Hill should be an easy price to justify. But if Hill develops into the frontline starter his talent suggests is possible, this deadline won't be remembered for the reliever Minnesota acquired, but for for the prospect they had to give up after their first plan fell apart. View full article

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Generally speaking, it's an exaggeration to say their bullpen has been the Twins' biggest strength. The unit has been quite bad overall, which was predictable after they gutted the relief corps at last year's deadline and did little to address it in the offseason. Except, of late, the bullpen actually has been this team's biggest strength. Since the start of July, Twins relievers rank 10th among MLB teams in fWAR, fifth in ERA, and ninth in Win Probability Added. Their starters, meanwhile, are 21st in WAR, 23rd in ERA, 21st in WPA. Their offense: 21st in WAR, 19th in wOBA, 6th in WPA. (That knack for timely hitting keeps on propping them up.) Prior to the additions of Jeff Hoffman and A.J. Minter, I certainly wouldn't say I felt confident in the Twins bullpen to keep performing at the level it did in July ... but, I might have felt more confident in that unit's outlook than the rotation or the lineup. Let's start with the starters. Here you've got: Joe Ryan openly battling arm fatigue as he lapses into familiar second-half struggles. Bailey Ober averaging 87 MPH with his fastball. Connor Prielipp already venturing into unprecedented workload territory as he nears 100 innings. Dean Kremer bringing in a 6.50 ERA and hoping to gravitate back toward his career norm of mediocrity. Zebby Matthews optioned to the minors (for now) with a 5.22 ERA this year and 5.64 for this career. Pablo López, Mick Abel and David Festa all out for the season. In the rotation mix, only Taj Bradley is inspiring a ton of confidence from both a durability and performance standpoint. And even then, there is a turbulent track record to contend with. The admirable depth boasted by Minnesota's starting corps entering this season has been whittled away, to the point where Kremer comes aboard as a credible upgrade. I wonder if we'll look back in two months lamenting the lack of one more front-end starter. Offensively, the Twins offer a little more reason for optimism. They continue to pace all American League teams in runs scored, although as mentioned earlier, it's a bit of a deceiving indicator. Twins hitters lead all of baseball in OPS with runners in scoring position. All their scoring up to this point is banked, but a big gap between overall performance and RISP is a glaring regression flag. Sure enough, we've already been seeing this play out in recent weeks, with the lineup drifting into long stretches of silence. The Twins rank 21st in runs scored since the break, identical to their hitting WAR rank for the season. Although the front office didn't make any additions to the position player group, they also didn't make any subtractions, which could be viewed in some ways as an investment in the offense. Trevor Larnach and Ryan Jeffers have been the club's two best hitters (sans the injured Byron Buxton), and both were circumstantial trade candidates. Minnesota held onto both — perhaps to the detriment of their long-term benefit — in order to at least hold steady in terms of bats. Ultimately, the Twins are asking their rotation and lineup to solve their own problems. There will be no external cavalry riding in to stabilize a thinning starting staff or reignite an offense that's cooled after carrying the club for much of the season. While that may feel unsatisfying in the moment, it's a defensible approach. Front offices can't afford to chase the last three weeks. The bullpen that looks like a strength today looked like one of baseball's biggest liabilities a month ago, and few areas of the sport are more volatile than relief pitching. Jeremy Zoll and company weren't buying July's results so much as insulating themselves against what history says is likely to come next. If those additions prove necessary, they'll look prescient. The bigger question is whether the starters and hitters can rediscover their form without the same kind of reinforcement. View full article