Nick Nelson

For the Twins to sustain their success in the rotation, they'll need more young starters to step up the way Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland did in 2023. Which minor-league pitchers in the system have that immediate impact in them? Image courtesy of Ed Bailey, Wichita Wind Surge (photo of David Festa) The top-tier Minnesota Twins rotation in 2023 was headlined by veterans Sonny Gray and Pablo López, who both made the All-Star team and received Cy Young votes. Kenta Maeda's resurgent campaign also did yeoman's work. But the contributions of younger starters who stepped up should not be overlooked. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober were key cogs in the Minnesota rotation, combining for more than 300 innings and a whole bunch of quality starts. The Twins went 32-23 in their starts (.581), because (outside of an ugly stretch from Ryan when he was pitching hurt) they both always gave the team a good chance. When you can win at a clip like that behind your mid-rotation starters, that's a pretty foolproof formula for success. Louie Varland also played an important role in the journey of the 2023 Twins rotation. He stepped in as quality depth early on, while the unit was still stabilizing, and posted a 3.51 ERA across seven starts between April and May. These impact arms are exactly the prototype that Derek Falvey was recruited to produce: acquired at low cost (Ryan for a deadline rental, Ober and Varland with late-round draft picks) and developed into legit big-league assets. With Gray and Maeda moving on, the trio will likely be counted on more heavily in 2024. And with financial resources limited, the Twins might be counting on the next wave of internally-developed starters to provide depth next year and beyond. Who's got next? These seven prospects represent the best hope for meaningful pipeline impact in the rotation over the next season or two. Excluded from this list are a couple of top prospects who are multiple years away from the majors due to injuries (Connor Prielipp) or age (Charlee Soto). David Festa, RHP Age: 23 Finished 2023 Season: Triple A Don't be deceived by Festa's so-so ERA between Double A and Triple A this past year (4.19): he's a highly-regarded prospect who piled up 119 strikeouts in 92 innings and pitched in the 2023 Futures Game. A late-round draft pick (13th) in 2021 who has increased his fastball velocity dramatically in the Twins system, Festa follows very much in the footsteps of Ober and Varland. He still has an important hurdle (too many walks) to clear, but Festa is on the precipice of the big leagues and will likely get a long look in big-league camp next spring. Among pitchers on this list, he probably ranks highest at the intersection of upside and readiness. He turns 24 in March. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP Age: 23 Finished 2023 Season: Triple A Woods Richardson is right on par with Festa in terms of readiness, but his perceived upside has fallen off a cliff since the Twins first acquired him in the Jose Berrios trade at the 2021 deadline. The 2023 season saw his post a sub-20% strikeout rate in St. Paul, despite having two full seasons' worth of experience in the high minors. SWR's flat fastball and lagging control have thrown his future into doubt, especially as a starter, so his place in this starting pipeline list is tenuous. Then again, he's got a pretty good physical workload base (around 115 innings pitched in each of the past two seasons) and pitched well in the second half for the Saints (2.92 ERA in his final 12 starts), so for now, he's certainly in the mix. At this moment, Woods Richardson is probably sixth on Minnesota's starting pitching depth chart. Marco Raya, RHP Age: 21 Finished 2023: Double A Raya is probably significantly farther away than the previous two, for the same reasons why SWR is so close: development and workload. Whereas SWR has thrown 400 innings in parts of five minor-league seasons, the 21-year-old Raya has thrown fewer than 130 in two seasons. Moreover, the Twins have been carefully managing his usage; he never threw more than four innings or 60 pitches in a start this year. That all points to the Twins proceeding very cautiously and conservatively with their 2020 draft pick, although Raya can expedite his own journey through his performance, which he already (more or less) has. The righty finished his latest campaign at Double A. I suspect one or more of the polished pitchers below him will leapfrog Raya in the coming year, but since he's advanced further in the system than any of them, the young hurler currently stands above them on this list. Cory Lewis, RHP Age: 23 Finished 2023: High A Lewis is one of the most intriguing arms in the Twins' system, for a specific reason: he throws a knuckleball and it looks legit. Very few major-league pitchers are able to master the knuckler, but those who do can pretty reliably give hitters fits, as Lewis did in 2023 when he posted a 2.49 ERA, 10.5 K/9 and 2.9 BB/9 between Low A and High A. He allowed just six homers in 102 innings across 22 starts. He was named Twins Minor League Pitcher of the Year, an honor that went to Varland each of the past two seasons. C.J. Culpepper, RHP Age: 22 Finished 2023: High A Stop me if you've heard this before: Culpepper was a 13th-round draft pick by the Twins who has significantly improved his velocity as a pro to put himself on the prospect radar. (You heard it earlier in this very article.) The California Baptist University product garnered a lot of strong reviews during his first full pro season in 2023, handling himself well at two levels of A ball as a 21-year-old. As opposed to starters who succeed on a specialized three-pitch mix, Culpepper unleashes a diverse arsenal with at least six different offerings, a la Sonny Gray. He showed solid command and kept the ball in the yard while tossing 86 innings in his first pro season. It's not unthinkable that he could put himself in line for a 2024 debut, though the following year feels more likely. Zebby Matthews, RHP Age: 23 Finished 2023: High A Matthews was selected in the eighth round of last year's draft, within five rounds of Lewis (9th) and Culpepper (13th), in what is looking to be a fruitful stretch of sleeper college arms harvested by the Twins. Of course, the coming year will tell us a lot about the true viability of this trio, as they start graduating to the high minors and facing advanced hitting. Success for college pitchers in A ball is not necessarily all that telling, though it is encouraging. Like Lewis and Culpepper, Matthews offered plenty of positive signs during his first full season in the system, posting a 3.84 ERA, 9.6 K/9, and 1.3 BB/9 between Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids. He threw 105 innings to build a strong workload baseline and implant himself in the starting pipeline. Like Culpepper, he relies on a deep repertoire, more than specific standout pitches, so it will be interesting to see if he can develop a true weapon to elevate his game. Andrew Morris, RHP Age: 22 Finished 2023: High A Yet another product of the 2022 draft class, Morris was a relatively high-profile pick as a fourth-rounder who received a $500,000 bonus. He achieved stellar results in his first full go against pro competition, posting a 2.88 ERA over 84 innings between the two A-ball levels. Morris is more of a "floor over ceiling" guy, according to MLB Pipeline, but he could factor as a back-of-rotation option for the parent club as soon as this year. Who's your guy in this group? Weigh in. View full article

Baseball is very much a team game, but in many cases, a small nucleus of transcendently talented players are the differentiators who elevate championship-caliber clubs. Minnesota has assembled a trio of star players in their primes who've shown they can play at an MVP-caliber level in the majors. But question marks abound for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, heading into a pivotal season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett, Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Looking back at the most successful teams in recent MLB history, we see how the impact of multiple star players clicking at the same time can carry clubs to new heights. The most recent example is the World Series champion Texas Rangers, who were propelled by a pair of top-three MVP finishers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien). Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, and Braves have, similarly, been elevated by their star power. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Matt Olson deliver massive value on the way to 100-plus win seasons and deep playoff runs. Pitching and depth both matter, as we've learned, but the reality is that having multiple everyday players on your roster who put up 5+ WAR can make up for a lot issues elsewhere. This concentrated production also tends to factor more heavily in October, where individual impact is accentuated. The Twins have long worked to build this kind of core, and are hoping it will all come together in 2024. Carlos Correa is entering his age-29 season, Byron Buxton his age-30 season, and Royce Lewis is looking to put in his first full MLB campaign at age 24. The Three North Stars It was always known that these three players could be destined for the tier of true major-league superstars. All were baseball prodigies from a very young age. Correa and Lewis were both No. 1 overall draft picks, and Buxton (No. 2 behind Correa in 2012) would've been the top pick in many other years. The Twins invested heavily to acquire these three–in money, draft capital, or both–and now the franchise has reached a point it's long been building toward: all three are in the majors, in their (ostensible) physical primes, and ready to join forces for a clear contender. Yes, there are question marks surrounding each of the three, as we'll discuss, but let's just look at what they've done when on the field. Here's a rough calculation of each player's fWAR per full season (averaged out for Buxton and Correa, extrapolated for Lewis): Carlos Correa: 4.7 fWAR per 150 games Byron Buxton: 4.2 fWAR per 150 games Royce Lewis: 6.2 fWAR per 150 games At a base level, if all three of these players stay mostly healthy next year and play to these standards of production, you've got a championship-caliber nucleus, plain and simple. Those are All-Star players at three critical positions. If we take one step farther into the realm of optimism, one could envision any of the three contending for an MVP in 2024. Correa wasn't far off from that form in 2021 or 2022. The same can be said for Buxton during that span, when on the field: he amassed 8.1 fWAR in 153 games. Lewis is the least proven, but his potential feels almost limitless, after watching him slug at a 40-homer pace while acclimating to major-league pitching. To whatever extent the clutch gene exists, Lewis has it in spades. That is undeniable. In addition to on-field production and pedigree, all three of these guys are leaders in the clubhouse, with intangible value that magnifies their positive impact. When you take away the injuries, it's easy to see why the Twins and their current front office have placed this trio at the center of their team-building scheme. Of course, you can't take away the injuries. The Elephant in the Room Let's just get it all out there. Correa is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he was plagued by signs of potential age-related regression even beyond the plantar fasciitis that bothered him for much of the season. Buxton's year was a depressing mess, casting doubt on his ability to stay on the field at all going forward, let alone play center field regularly. Lewis has played all of 118 total games over the past four seasons due to a medley of injuries, which extended into his brilliant rookie year. Coming off an 87-win season, it's understandable why many fans are yearning for more star power to be added to the mix this offseason, but that level of help probably isn't coming. The Twins will be focused on using what limited resources they have to replace their pitching losses and replenish their depth. They have little choice but to depend on these three core players as the foundations of their championship vision for 2024–because of the financial commitments they've already made to Correa and Buxton, and because of the ability Lewis has shown. There's an inclination for fans to focus on the negative or the downside in scenarios like these. After all, we've been conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to injury outcomes. But as this quiet offseason unfolds, I urge you to look at the bright side, and to consider the ceiling for the team if it all comes together next year. Reasons to Believe Setting aside the injury baggage, let's remind ourselves of the talent level these three players possess, and the highlights they've produced in big spots over the past few seasons. Is it plausible for all three to realize their top form next year? Here are some points for optimism: Not always, but plantar fasciitis is often an injury that lingers throughout a season before clearing up with extended rest during the offseason. That'll be the hope for Correa, who notably looked excellent in the playoffs after finally tearing the fascia late in the season. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported over the weekend that Buxton is "fully recovered" from his latest knee surgery and preparing for next season with the goal of playing center field. Given what a tough time he's had with the knee, I understand the widespread skepticism, but the team and its trainers are at least implementing a clear plan to address it. These things can take time. You'd like to think Lewis's catastrophic bad breaks are behind him. His twice-repaired right knee looked fully functional after his return this year. Hopefully going through some troubles with the oblique and hamstring helped him learn about managing his body and avoiding soft-tissue injuries going forward. For what it's worth, staying healthy and on the field was never a problem for Lewis prior to the two fluky ACL tears. The Time Is Now for This Twins Trio When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, they inherited the first overall pick in their very first draft. They used it to select Lewis, setting in motion a team-building vision that is now reaching its planned fruition. Along the way, Correa and Buxton joined Lewis as core building blocks, signing two of the largest contracts in team history. This is it. This is what the Twins have been building toward and now we'll see if these three superstar-caliber players can come together and make magic. Down the line, they might be joined or succeeded at this level by the likes of Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, who arguably offer the same kind of upside. But for now, look no further than Correa, Buxton and Lewis as the decisive factors in Minnesota's outlook in 2024, regardless of what else happens this offseason. View full article

Within the span of one week, Minnesota's top three free agent pitchers all just came off the board, leaving a definitive and sizable void remaining in the Twins staff. How will the front office make up for the losses of Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda, and Emilio Pagan, who combined to account for nearly half of the value delivered by Twins pitchers this past season? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Erik Williams, Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports The story of the 2023 Twins pitching staff was the gains they made following an underwhelming 2022 campaign: From one year to the next, Minnesota improved from 20th among MLB teams in fWAR (10.7) to fourth (19.7). Conversely, the story of this offseason so far for the Twins pitching staff has been losses -- specifically, the confirmed departures of three pitchers who were instrumental in driving this year-over-year improvement. Sonny Gray, Kenta Maeda and Emilio Pagan all took huge steps forward in terms of production, combining for 7.9 fWAR between the three of them. That number figure accounts for nearly the entirety of the team's 9-WAR increase from below-average in 2022 (10.7) to elite in 2023 (19.7), and it represents 40% of Minnesota's total pitching WAR this past season. Given how they contributed to one of the league's best pitching staffs, it comes as no surprise that these three free agents were all in high demand, and among the first to come off the market. Each received a deal that exceeded many expectations, and kept the cost-cutting Twins from seriously pursuing reunions with any of the three. Now, they're tasked with making up for all that lost pitching value. In some ways, these players and their own journeys represent the path to another top-tier pitching staff next year. The Twins need other players to step up and break through in the same ways as this trio just did: In 2022, Gray was more on the precipice of being a dependable frontline starter, battling with durability issues that limited him to 120 innings. In 2023 he pulled it all together and had a career year. Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober seem to currently be in similar places to where Gray was a year ago, with the the ingredients to reach another level if they can stay healthy and lock in. In 2022, Maeda didn't pitch at all. He was recovering from Tommy John surgery, which set him up for a return in 2023 that was, overall, good enough to earn the 35-year-old a $24 million contract in free agency. Here the parallel to Chris Paddack is self-evident, and Paddack has a head-start on where Maeda was a year ago, in that he already returned to the major-league mound successfully. In 2022, Pagan... well, we know how things went for him. Despite having enough raw stuff and ability to preserve the team's faith, he repeatedly imploded on the mound in big spots. But the volatility of relief pitching works both ways, and sometimes it really does click in almost an instant for talented arms. There are several other players in Minnesota's bullpen mix who could feasibly make a Pagan-like leap next year, and the impending return of flame-thrower Matt Canterino looms large in this regard. Of course, even if the Twins are able to make up for some of these key free agency losses via internal improvements, there is no denying that they need to look outside in order to replenish their pitching staff, which has a few existing weak spots in addition to its clear openings. This front office has proven it has no appetite for outbidding the field to buy high in free agency. If they make acquisitions on this front, it will likely be of the lower-caliber variety (think J.A. Happ) or a high-risk venture with some reward. More likely the Twins will use the same avenue to try and replace these pitchers as they used to acquire all three in the first place: trading for multiple years of control at a reasonable price point. In each case the front office dealt from its pitching depth (Chase Petty, Brusdar Graterol, Taylor Rogers) to target arms that could factor into their plans -- including Paddack. This plan comes with its own premium but it can be financially feasible given the team's annoying constraint. How close can they come to replacing the upside and stability they just lost, and what will they have to give up to do so? These are the questions looming as the Twins reckon with the finality of Gray, Maeda and Pagan officially moving on, leaving critical roles in the rotation and bullpen vacant. I suspect that as usual the Twins front office will get creative and show patience. But options are prone to start coming off the board quickly as the Winter Meetings get underway on Monday. View full article

It was a decision that seemed weird at the time, and now seems even weirder as the self-inflicted negative PR takes its toll in early offseason discourse. Why did the Twins reveal their intentions to decrease their payroll? What did they stand to gain? Image courtesy of John Bonnes, Twins Daily The Twins didn't exactly hold a press conference to announce it, but they might as well have. In early November, shortly after the conclusion of the World Series, team leadership left little ambiguity about the spending outlook for 2024. “We’ve pushed our payroll to heights that we had never pushed it before with the support, certainly, of ownership,” Derek Falvey said. “We know there is some natural ebb and flow to that. Will it be where it was last year? I don’t expect that. I expect it [to be] less than that. Some of that may come more organically.” Some follow-up reporting from Dan Hayes for The Athletic brought even more detail to light: the team foresees "significant payroll cuts" of up to $30 million. This journalistic revelation was less overt than Falvey's open on-the-record admission, but still, you don't get the sense it was some tightly-held secret. Clearly Twins leadership–or at least certain elements of it–didn't mind having this narrative out there in the public sphere. WHY? Coming off a division-winning campaign and a long-awaited postseason breakthrough, the Twins were riding high. They had a prime opportunity to parlay the excitement surrounding this team into a robust winter of season ticket sales and sponsorships. Even if reduced spending was an inevitable reality (and arguably a reasonable one), why come out and say it right away? What is to be gained? Falvey and this front office are too strategic, too intentional to just let something like this slip accidentally. There was a rationale behind getting the word out there. Maybe that's what is most annoying about it for those of us trying to analyze from the outside; it's really hard to find an obvious answer. The effects of setting this vibe for the offseason have been fairly predictable. The widespread reaction to nearly every piece of Twins-related news is colored by resentment toward dropping payroll in a moment of great opportunity. Parting with longtime scouts from the previous regime? Cheap. Failing to re-sign Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda? Classic Pohlads. Never mind that these decisions adhere to the same general philosophies this front office has pretty much always followed. The Twins are willingly inviting this narrative. So again, I ask: why? There's got to be some sort of motivation behind this course of action. In trying to land on an explanation that seems viable, a few potential objectives come to mind. They're trying to create awareness of the TV situation and its implications. This strikes me as most probable. While many Twins Daily regulars are likely aware of the team's collapsed broadcasting deal with Diamond Sports Group and what it means for the overall revenue picture, a majority of casual fans are not clued in. Not everyone's going to be empathetic to a mega-rich operation making fractionally less profit, but at least it gets an associated (and arguably valid) causal factor out there. Hayes's article makes this framing clear: "Following the expiration of a Bally TV deal that netted them $54.8 million last season, Falvey acknowledged the team’s payroll wouldn’t be nearly as high," he wrote. If a public perception is formed that "better TV deal = higher payroll", it could help the team curry support in its quest to find a new solution. They're trying to influence market expectations. The Twins love to find a competitive advantage wherever they can get it. If players, agents, and other front offices believe the Twins are intent on reducing their payroll, it could influence perceptions in interesting ways. Perhaps another team discounts the stealthy Twins in negotiations for a key player. A stretch? Perhaps. But it'll be a feel-good story for everyone if the Twins end up shooting higher than expected and can talk about how they went past their comfort zone to get the guy they wanted. They're lowering expectations so they can exceed them. Under-promise, over-deliver? The optics of even coming close to repeating their record-setting payroll of 2023 would now be pretty good, given that the team has proactively dampened expectations. I know most of us are zeroing in on the lower end of that $125-140 million range Hayes laid out, to the extent that going beyond that would now feel like a pleasant surprise. It matters, because the difference between those two figures would have a sizable impact on what the front office is realistically able to do this offseason when it comes to upgrading the team, or even making up for the losses they've already experienced in free agency. Unfortunately, this is probably wishful thinking. What I keep coming back to is, why come out with it now? If the Twins ended up spending marginally less next year than they did this year, I don't think too many people would notice or care. The up-front framing of these cuts as significant is glaring to me, and makes me expect the worst. They're trying to soften a big blow. Maybe we are all right to be zeroing in on the low-end $125 million target. Maybe that's the whole point. I don't have any specific insight beyond what's out there, but it wouldn't shock me if the Twins feel overextended after going big last offseason and then losing the RSN honeypot. If Falvey is merely leveling with us and being transparent about the steep drop-off to come, I find it hard to begrudge him. I still just don't get it from a business standpoint. Even if the front office leader's corresponding point about payroll–that the Twins can succeed with a lower one because they've built the infrastructure to do so–is accurate, he had to know how the comment and insinuation would be perceived. The reignited payroll narrative is now casting an additional pall over a series of Twins-related headlines that have not been received well: Dick Bremer being ushered out of the broadcast booth, tenured scouts being dismissed, several key free agents signing elsewhere. Hopefully, somewhere on the other side of this, there is a vision to turn the tides and revitalize morale. Right now, all I'm seeing is an avalanche of bad press and buzz-killing vibes. It makes me wonder what exactly the Twins are trying to do from a business and brand standpoint, as much as a baseball one. View full article

The veteran catcher sure seems to be on the chopping block as the Twins look to cut payroll. Would trading Christian Vázquez for salary relief be a short-sighted move? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports On its face, the idea of trading a backup catcher who makes $10 million seems like a pretty logical method of lowering payroll without substantially downgrading the team. Especially when that catcher is coming off a truly hideous offensive season where the starter in front of him emerged as one of the game's best backstops. And so it comes as no surprise the Twins are said to be "aggressively" trying to move Christian Vázquez (among others) as next week's Winter Meetings approach. An uninspiring free agent class for catchers, headlined by Gary Sánchez, is helping create a market to shop Vázquez even coming off a 2023 campaign where he posted a sub-.600 OPS and ceded his starting job. I'm not trying to say that losing Vázquez would be some sort of disaster, with Ryan Jeffers establishing himself as a true standout and Jair Camargo recently joining the 40-man roster. Vázquez had become so extraneous to the Twins by October that he didn't get a single postseason AB – although I'd argue this owed more to their belief in Jeffers than a lack of faith in Vázquez. Things change from year to year. Just because Vázquez had a down year offensively doesn't mean he can't rebound and get back near the average-ish level that was his baseline the previous four years. And also, focusing on his bat does not tell the full story of what Vázquez provides by a longshot. Most defensive metrics (including SDI) ranked the 33-year-old among the game's best catchers – far better than Jeffers. His presence should not be overlooked in assessing the team's remarkable pitching breakthrough, or overall run prevention prowess. Whether you're looking at blocking, framing, or throwing, Vázquez graded out extremely well. Yes, $10 million for a backup catcher feels like a luxury. But it's better to look at the tandem of he and Jeffers as a combined cost of a bout $12.5 million, which is a very reasonable commitment to one of the most critical positions on the field. It's important to think about the insurance Vázquez provides for Jeffers, who has quickly become one of the franchise's most key assets. Let us not forget what a priority it was for the Twins to go out and get a veteran catcher a year ago, and why. They targeted Vázquez and went out of their comfort zone by adding a third year to their offer for him, specifically because Jeffers had proven so unreliable from a health and production standpoint. One good season, as impressive as it was, does not eliminate these concerns for Jeffers. Looking ahead to 2024, one of the most glaring concerns for the Minnesota Twins is regression. The team would be leaving themselves with little protection behind the plate by subtracting the trusted veteran safety net that is Vázquez; another significant injury to Jeffers would leave the completely untested 24-year-old Camargo atop the catching depth chart. Sure, you could say Vázquez is a luxury. But he doesn't seem like the kind of luxury that a team with World Series aspirations should be looking to part with – rather the kind they should be looking to add. View full article

The Twins have a handful of pitchers on their 40-man roster with tenuous holds on their spots. As the front office seeks to upgrade in the offseason, any one of these five players could find themselves at risk of being the odd man out. Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports I'll start out by acknowledging what you already know: young and controllable arms are very valuable in baseball. For that reason, none of these decisions will or should be taken lightly. We've seen countless times how a small shift in pitching role, or a minor tweak to mechanics or pitch mix, can completely turn around a wayward pitcher. The Twins won't be eager to move on from any of these five, who have all shown some level of potential while pitching on the big-league stage. With that said, the front office will likely be seeking to shake things up on the pitching staff this offseason, targeting new talents and projects to take on. There are currently four open spots on the 40-man roster, but those could be claimed quickly as the Twins fulfill needs in the rotation and position-player corps. After being extended arbitration earlier this month, Jorge Alcala will likely be given every chance to overcome his injuries and make the 2024 bullpen, although that isn't a lock. The following five could be considered less likely to make it through the offseason without exiting the organization via DFA or minor trade. Jordan Balazovic, RHP Heading into the 2020 season, we had Balazovic ranked as the fifth-best prospect in the Twins system. He would move up to the status of No. 1 pitching prospect when Brusdar Graterol – ranked one spot ahead – was traded shortly thereafter. At the time, Balazovic was coming off a stellar year in Single-A, and at age 21 was on track to eventually impact an MLB rotation. Unfortunately, since the lost COVID season, the righty has struggled with pretty much everything: control, hits, home runs. The 2023 season was especially tumultuous for Balazovic; he missed time in spring training after an off-the-field altercation, and once again got rocked at Triple-A. He did break through to the majors with 18 appearances, but gave up 12 walks and five homers in 24 innings. A smokescreen of unsustainable early success gave way to the reality of an overmatched pitcher. “Jordan was really good about identifying and being honest with the way he was throwing the ball,” manager Rocco Baldelli said when Balazovic was demoted in late August. “He said, ‘I just have to get in the zone.’ … I liked him taking that level of responsibility on. He was very direct and that felt good. He knows what he’s trying to accomplish.” Balazovic proceeded to issue 11 walks with four strikeouts in 10 innings for the Saints after getting sent down. A brutal end to a brutal year that leaves the 25-year-old's future here in limbo. He still has some traits to like – namely a big frame and a fastball that can elevate in the zone – but it's fairly to easy imagine the front office moving on and picking a new arm to develop with this roster spot. Josh Winder, RHP The Twins were very high on Winder coming out of spring training in 2022, to the point that they surprisingly kept him on the Opening Day roster. He was impressive early on, before familiar shoulder issues cropped up and derailed his season. Winder has since been unable to shake those recurring right shoulder woes, and was limited to just 70 ineffective innings between the majors and Triple-A this season. He stands 6-foot-5 with a great slider, giving him a strong reliever profile, and even throws 95 to boot. The problem is that Winder's fastball, despite its velocity, has been a batting-practice pitch in the majors, yielding a .537 wOBA this year and .485 last year. Simply non-viable. He turned 27 in October. Cole Sands, RHP Sands has been up and down over the past couple of seasons, filling in as needed with 26 appearances (three starts) and 52 innings. The sum result has been a 4.99 ERA and 5.06 FIP – not good. He's in a very similar boat as Winder, running dangerously close to the "Quadruple-A player" designation at age 26 with no real record of MLB success. I think the Twins will be a little more inclined to keep Sands over Winder because he is younger, has been healthier, and his fastball at least shows signs of being usable. Plus Sands has a really interesting secondary mix that is worth building around as a reliever. Brent Headrick, LHP The left-hander was a somewhat surprising add to the 40-man roster last offseason, in that he wasn't really on the prospect radar. The Twins liked his ability to factor as immediate major-league depth, and they were valid in assessing him as such. Headrick made 14 appearances for the big-league club in 2023, handling the load capably at times. Still, his performance could hardy be described as impressive. Headrick finished with a 6.31 ERA and 6.10 FIP in 26 innings for the Twins. His performance in Triple-A also wasn't great (4.68 ERA in 75 innings) but as a hard-throwing lefty who can provide length and strike people out, I don't think Headrick is especially likely to exit. Simeon Woods Richardson, RHP I don't really believe Woods Richardson is at risk of being dumped this offseason, which is why he's at the bottom of this list. He's young enough to have upside, and seasoned enough to offer big-league depth. But the theoretical upside in his game is fading fast. Woods Richardson's 2023 season was discouraging in almost every way. His velocity dwindled, his stuff lagged and his numbers were dreadful, even though he was seemingly healthy throughout the season. To put his 19.3% K-rate at Triple-A in some context, it was lower than Randy Dobnak's. The right-hander is still only 23 and I suspect the Twins would at least let him loose in a full-time relief role before letting him loose. That said, it wouldn't surprise me if he was a toss-in for some trade package this offseason. Managing pitchers like these is a delicate balance. You never want to give up too early, but holding too long can mean costing yourself opportunities to roster and develop different arms. We'll see where the Twins land this offseason on these five fringe figures in the team's pitching plans. View full article

The kids did step up! They had the most impactful rookie class in franchise history and won 87 games. I think that's why people would understandably like to see some investment around that core.

Naming moves from last offseason is a weird way to disagree with my assessment of this offseason. Are you really saying that making obvious moves on Kepler, Polanco and Gray is a deviation from the status quo?

The offseason is off to a quiet start across the league, but things figure to start heating up as the Winter Meetings fast approach. Here's a quick rundown of where things stand with the Twins, who've been busy setting themselves up to make some moves. Image courtesy of Ron Chenoy-USA TODAY Sports There's no other way to frame it: The start of this offseason has been flat-out deflating for Minnesota Twins fans. After watching a promising ALDS fizzle out at Target Field, we've since been informed directly by the team's leadership that we can expect payroll cuts next year. It's a splash of cold water following the franchise's much-awaited resurgence. Thus far, everything we've seen from the Twins in a slow start to the offseason has been suggestive of a commitment to the status quo. There have been no real surprises or curveballs yet. But that doesn't mean some aren't in store. Read on to catch up on any moves or headlines you might've missed. Twins Extend Arbitration To All Eligible Players Minnesota's front office characteristically waited until the very last minute to make their decisions public, but ultimately ruffled no feathers when the deadline to extend 2024 contracts for arbitration-eligible (and pre-arb) players arrived on November 17th. The Twins extended offers to the following seven players, whose salary estimates for next year are listed alongside: Kyle Farmer, $6.6M Willi Castro, $3.2M Caleb Thielbar, $3.0M Ryan Jeffers: $2.3M Alex Kirilloff: $1.7M Nick Gordon, $1.0M Jorge Alcala, $1.0M Just because these players were offered arbitration, that does not assure they'll be on the team next year. In some cases (i.e. Farmer) it's probably more likely they won't be. But for now, all seven remain in the Twins' plans. Prospects Added to 40-Man, Suspects Subtracted Earlier, the Twins had added four prospects to their 40-man roster in order to protect them from the upcoming Rule 5 draft: Emmanuel Rodriguez, Austin Martin, Jair Camargo, and Yunior Severino. You can read about the minor-leaguers who were NOT added, and thus left vulnerable to getting plucked away when the Rule 5 takes place, here. These additions have been counterbalanced by a number of marginal or injured players being removed and outrighted from the 40-man roster, including all the departing free agents (Michael A. Taylor, Tyler Mahle, Donovan Solano, Kenta Maeda, Sonny Gray, Dallas Keuchel, Emilio Pagan, Joey Gallo) as well as relievers Jovani Moran and Ronny Henriquez. Gray was extended a qualifying offer, which he rejected, so in the likely event he signs elsewhere, the Twins will get draft pick compensation. All of this shuffling leaves the 40-man roster at 36, as the Twins turn their attention toward acquiring new talent. Twins Said To Be Shopping Vázquez Last offseason, the Twins' top priority was signing Christian Vázquez, and they got it done before Christmas. This year, their top priority already be unloading his contract. According to MLB insider Robert Murray, via Foul Territory TV, "The Twins are looking to cut payroll and have aggressively tried to move certain players, including Christian Vázquez." Just a bummer of a headline and tone-setter for this offseason, as alluded earlier. For the Twins to immediately go into open cost-cutting mode following such an energizing, breakthrough season is horrible optics. Alas, here we are. Vázquez is coming off one of his worst offensive seasons, but rated out well defensively and clearly has some level of demand in a sparse catching market. Still, it's tough to envision the Twins getting much more than salary relief in return for trading the veteran and his remaining two years, $20 million. Detroit Zeroing In on Maeda Elsewhere, it sounds like momentum is building toward a deal between Maeda and the Detroit Tigers, which would keep the right-hander in the AL Central following his four-year stint with the Twins. The Twins were said to be in the mix for Maeda, but I don't get the sense they are prepared to win a bidding war for the 35-year-old coming off a good-not-great season. With Detroit looking to take a step forward and overtake the Twins after finishing second this year, snagging away Maeda would be an interesting development for a budding rivalry. The Hot Stove has been cool thus far, but it's bound to heat up soon. Stay tuned to Twins Daily for real-time coverage and discussion of the MLB offseason. View full article