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Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling. View full article

By Friday at 7:00 pm, MLB teams will need to offer their pre-arbitration and arbitration-eligible players a contract for 2024. The Twins have already made their official decision on two arbitration-eligible players and have to make their decisions on seven more players. And those decisions come with several question marks. (Article updated Friday, 7:40 pm after roster decisions announced) Image courtesy of Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Article Update (7:40 pm): On Friday night, the Twins announced that they have tendered 2024 contracts to all seven arbitration-eligible players. It was also announced the Jovani Moran is expected to be having Tommy John surgery in the near future and miss the 2024 season. The Twins are trying to get him to sign a two-year minor league deal. In addition, the Twins did not tender a 2024 contract to RHP Ronny Henriquez. With Moran and Henriquez coming off of the 40-man roster, the roster is now at 36 players. There are 17 pitchers, three catchers, eight infielders and eight outfielders. ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- When the offseason began, the Minnesota Twins had nine players on their roster that were arbitration-eligible. Since then, the Twins made quick decisions on two of them. Soon after their playoff run concluded, Jordan Luplow and Jose De Leon were designated for assignment and became free agents. That leaves seven players that the Twins still need to make decisions about their 2024 status. Below, I will run through these seven players and make some notes on each. Several of them may involve answering some difficult questions. A few are pretty easy decisions. Please feel free to ask questions and discuss these decisions in the Forum below. Also, generally-speaking not many pre-arbitration players are non-tendered, but it has happened. We aren't going to try to project which, if any, of those players will be non-tendered on Friday. (Players sorted by MLB Trade Rumors Projections) 2B/OF Nick Gordon Service Time: 2.136 (two years, 136 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: If this decision had to be made after Gordon’s 2022 breakout season, it would have been simple. However, Gordon’s 2023 season started out very slow, but just when he started playing well, he broke his leg and was out the remainder of the season. However, he was an impressive teammate and cheerleader for the team in October! Potential 2024 Role: Gordon can play second base and performed well in left field and centerfield over the previous year. In a pinch, he can play shortstop and third base as well. He could be the left-handed side of platoons or a more traditional utility player, capable of playing at least five positions if needed. With the emergence of Edouard Julien, Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis, and the likes of Austin Martin and Brooks Lee potentially ready in the near future, playing time may be more and more limited. Biggest Question Marks: Gordon has had several injuries in his career. And while his 2022 season was just as good as Willi Castro’s 2023 season, Castro is the better defensive player at each spot on the field. Gordon is also out of options, so he couldn’t be sent to the minor leagues by the Twins without going through waivers. Prediction: The dollars are low and Gordon should have value to teams, including the Twins. I would predict that he will be tendered a 2024 contract, although I would think that the Twins front office might be looking to trade him to a team looking for a solid utility option. A trade could happen before Friday’s deadline, or anytime after Friday (assuming he is tendered). RHP Jorge Alcala Service Time: 4.014 (four years, 14 days) Arbitration Year: 2 of 3 Age in 2024: 28 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After pitching just twice in 2022, Alcala made the 2023 opening day roster. However, after 10 games and 15 innings, he went on the Injured List in mid-May and didn’t return until the final game of the season. However, in that game, he was displaying a fastball between 97 and 99 and a sharp slider. Potential 2024 Role: The “potential” for Alcala has been the same each of the past five offseasons. When healthy, he has a big fastball and quality secondaries that are inconsistent but have big… potential. He has the potential and talent to be the top set up man, joining Griffin Jax and Brock Stewart in getting the ball to Jhoan Duran. I’d like to see what he can do in a fully healthy season. Biggest Question Mark: Health. That’s it. Yeah, he can work on pitches too and become more consistent, but the only way to do that is to stay healthy and get the innings. Prediction: This should be a very easy decision. The Twins should absolutely tender him a contract. If it’s $1 million, that’s fine. A year ago, he avoided arbitration by agreeing to a one-year, $790,000 deal, just $70K over league minimum. With his limited pitching the last couple of seasons, I would think he would happily sign a one-year, $900,000 deal, or something in that range. Sure, the team can still look to trade him if someone sends a quality prospect. However, Alcala hasn’t been optioned in the past, so he’s got three years worth of options remaining which might allow him to work on things and get innings if he’s not with the Twins. 1B Alex Kirilloff Service Time: 2.141 (two years, 141 days, Super 2) Arbitration Year: 1 of 4 Age in 2024: 26 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $1.7 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Because of ongoing wrist pain, Kirilloff’s 2022 season ended after just 45 games. He had a surgery which involved shaving bones in his wrist to help alleviate the pain. The Twins brought him back slowly early in the 2023 season. He missed some time, but generally speaking, his wrist was not an issue. He played in 88 games and posted a .793 OPS with 14 doubles and 11 homers. He struggled in the playoffs and was removed from the roster in the ALDS series against the Astros due to a shoulder injury. He had surgery shortly after the Twins playoff run came to an end. Potential 2024 Role: When healthy, Kirilloff will be the primary first baseman. While his surgery turned out to be much more minor than feared, he could still miss some time early in the season. When he’s healthy, he is potentially an All Star bat. Can he still reach that level? Biggest Question Mark: That is the question. He will get healthy in time, though that has certainly become his biggest issue so far. He was pretty strictly platooned in 2023 due to some horrific numbers versus southpaws. Can he put up decent-enough numbers against same-siders to be an everyday player? Prediction: Easy decision. He will be tendered a contract. Can they negotiate a deal with him and his agent (Boras) to sign a deal for below the projection? Maybe. C Ryan Jeffers Service Time: 3.089 (three years, 89 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 3 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $2.3 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: After hitting a combined .203/.277/.384 (.661) in 152 games between 2021 and 2022, the Twins brought in veteran backstop Christian Vazquez on a three-year deal. Early in the season, Vazquez was playing approximately two out of three games. However, Jeffers started playing much better behind the plate and at the plate. In 96 games, he hit .276/.369/.490 (.858) with 15 doubles and 14 home runs. His OPS+ was 134! The Twins played six playoff games in 2023. Jeffers caught all six of them. Potential 2024 Role: Aside from “normal” catcher bumps, bruises and pain, Vazquez and Jeffers remained healthy throughout the 2023 season. The two should continue to split time, with Jeffers getting the start in two out of three games. If he’s hitting like he did in 2023, he could get more DH opportunities too. Biggest Question Mark: He’s a catcher. That alone comes with inherent risks of injury. That shouldn’t be a consideration in this discussion. So the big question for Jeffers in 2024 will be if he can replicate his 2023 success as opposed to revert to his 2021 and 2022 levels. Prediction: Another easy decision. In fact, these two sides should spend time this offseason working on a four or five year deal to keep him in a Twins uniform for a long time. LHP Caleb Thielbar Service Time: 5.131 (five years, 131 days) Arbitration Year: 3 of 3 Age in 2024: 37 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.0 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Since returning to the Twins before the 2020 season, Thielbar has been remarkably consistent, and remarkably effective as a setup man for the Twins. 2023 was the first time in his career that he missed significant time due to injury. He strained his oblique, probably came back too quickly, strained it again and then took longer to return the second time. So, he only pitched in 36 games, but in his 30 2/3 innings, he had 36 strikeouts and just six walks. For the first time since his 2013 rookie season, he had a WHIP of under 1.00. Potential 2024 Role: More of the same from Thielbar. Yes, he will be 37, but he hasn’t lost velocity, and his curveball continues to be a great pitch. He should continue to get crucial spots anywhere from the sixth through ninth innings. He can also continue to be a mentor in the bullpen. Biggest Question Mark: Can he stay healthy throughout most of the season? And obviously can he remain effective for another year? And on some level, how much longer does he want to continue pitching? Prediction: Sure, there are questions, but this is another easy decision for the Twins’ brass. Thielbar will be tendered a contract for 2024. And I would like to see the two sides come together and discuss a longer-term deal. Maybe it’s a series of options. $3 million for 2024, then an option for 2025 at $3 million that vests with 50 innings. If he is between 40 and 49 2/3 innings in 2024, the option vests at $2.5 million. If he’s under 40 innings, there could be a club option at $2 million but if they decline it, there could be a player option at $1.5 million. And, of course, Thielbar would have the right to retire at any point. The lawyers could get involved to creatively work through a one-year deal with a couple of options that would keep Thielbar pitching for his hometown team until he retires. UT Willi Castro Service Time: 4.017 (4 years, 17 days) Arbitration Year: 1 of 2 Age in 2024: 27 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $3.2 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Following the 2022 season, Castro had accumulated just over three years of service time with the Tigers. He was projected to make $1.7 million in his first year of arbitration, so Detroit non-tendered him. The Twins pursued him aggressively and he quickly signed a minor-league deal with the Twins in which he would make $1.8 million if he was with the Twins all season. Because of injuries and more, Castro made the Twins Opening Day roster, and after not playing for the first several games, he found a way to spend the entire season as a very valuable role player with the Twins. He was fantastic defensively at three infield positions. He did a nice job filling in left and center field as well. In his parts of four seasons with the Tigers, he accumulated 0.4 bWAR. In 124 games with the Twins in 2023, Castro ranked third among Twins hitters with 2.6 bWAR. He played strong defense. He hit .257/.339/.411 (.750) with 32 extra base hits. He stole 33 bases in 38 attempts, an element the Twins haven’t had for a long time. Potential 2024 Role: His role in 2024 should be very similar to what it was in 2023. He can play three to five times per week all over the diamond. The fact that he is a switch hitter allows him to give guys off at different spots regardless of that day’s starting pitcher. Biggest Question Mark: He was well worth the $1.8 million in 2023, and we can all picture him continuing to be valuable, but his 2023 production was significantly better than it had been the two previous seasons when he played over 110 games. Won’t the real Willi Castro please stand up? And, how does the front office see the combination of Castro and Gordon in the organization? Can they both be on the roster and provide value? Castro is a year younger. Prediction: This is really the first one where I’ve had to think about how much I buy into Willi Castro’s 2023 season. That said, I think the Twins will tender him a contract, try to come up with a little lower than projected number, and use his switch-hitting and defensive versatility in 2024. IF Kyle Farmer Service Time: 5.129 (five years, 129 days) Arbitration Year: 3 or 3 Age in 2024: 33 MLB Trade Rumors Projected 2024 Salary: $6.6 million Deadline Decision: Tendered 2023 Season: Farmer came to the Twins after the 2022 season from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for RH RP Casey Legumina. At the time, he was technically the Twins starting shortstop. As you all know, after a long and winding road, Carlos Correa came back to the Twins which meant it was back to the bench for Farmer. That said, Rocco Baldelli kept his bench active all season. Farmer got extended time at second base early in the season when Jorge Polanco was out. He got quite a bit of time at third base in between the Jose Miranda demotion and the return of Royce Lewis. And late in the year, he played shortstop most every day when Correa was resting his plantar fasciitis. In between, he was a platoon player, often splitting time with, and mentoring, Edouard Julien at second base. Solid defense around the infield. Fantastic leader and teammate. Generally mashes left-handed pitching. Took a fastball to the mouth and went through multiple surgeries. Potential 2024 Role: It would be the same general role for Farmer in 2024. Depending on how the right side of the infield shakes out this offseason, he could platoon at first and/or second base. He can pinch hit, DH, and even be that emergency catcher. Depending on health, it is likely his playing time would decrease. Biggest Question Mark: Payroll. Just what will the Twins payroll be in 2024. We know it’s going to drop, so can the Twins afford to pay a utility player over $6 million? Unfortunately that is the reality because my sense is that everyone associated with the Twins would love to bring Farmer back. Prediction: This is by far the most difficult decision for the Twins front office. As noted, if payroll remained the same, he would very likely be tendered, but with payroll down, we can’t assume that. We know his value to a big-league roster. You would hate to non-tender him and lose him for nothing. So, I don’t think they’ll do that. I do think that they will try hard to trade him for something over the next 24-36 hours, but if they can’t before Friday’s deadline, I would guess that they will tender him a contract and continue to try to deal him throughout the offseason. There are quick glimpses at the seven remaining arbitration-eligible cases that the Twins front office have to make decisions on before Friday evening. Will they tender all seven? How many do you think they will, or they should tender? Could they be looking to make a trade or two, either of these players or of some pre-arbitration players to make additional room on the roster? How many of these players should be considered for multi-year contract extensions? Feel free to discuss below. And again, check back over the next couple of days to find out what the Twins decided to do. View full article

Here's a roundup of a bunch of Minnesota Twins news items and topics, starting with Kala'i Rosario's performance in the Arizona Fall League. Also discussed is the Twins being shut out of the Silver Slugger nominations, how the Twins fared against the LCS teams this year, an interesting look into minor league statcast data by Baseball America and which of MLB's top-25 free agents they see as potential targets for the Twins. View full video

It may be hard for some people to believe it’s only been three years since 2020. The events of that year feel like a lifetime ago. For the Twins top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects from that year, it was a year of lost opportunity. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports The lost opportunity of 2020 was no prospect's fault. Minor-leaguers, like many others around the world, were dealt a bad hand; in some cases, at very costly times in their development. Some did get MLB playing time such as Ryan Jeffers who played in his first 26 MLB games in the shortened 60-game season. Others have yet to find the crack on an active roster after missing out on an entire professional season. Enough time has now passed and three full seasons of Major and Minor League Baseball have been completed. So where did each of the Twins' top 30 prospects, according to MLB Pipeline, finish their 2023 seasons? Let’s find out. On active rosters for the end of 2023 1. Royce Lewis At long last, Lewis arrived at the majors full-time, and he did not disappoint. He was still limited to 58 games, returning on Memorial Day and facing strained hamstring that sidelined him from July to mid-August. Lewis returned as the best power hitter with the bases loaded any rookie has ever been. He’s quickly become known as Mr. Grand Slam, per teammate Chris Paddack. He carried the team on his back in Game 1 of the Wild Card Series against Toronto, hitting the only two home runs the team needed to win. Lewis has finally arrived and exceeded the expectations that were put on him when he was drafted number one overall in 2017. The next mountain for this future star to climb over is remaining healthy for at least 75% of the season. If he can repeat the same level of success he had in the majors this year, then he will be a force to reckon with in 2024. 2. Alex Kirilloff Kirilloff didn't make it through the playoffs but he finished the regular season healthy. The injuries still derailed Kirilloff even as he reached a career-high of 88 games played in 2023. His best stretch of the season came from Memorial Day weekend until his shoulder injury sidelined him in Kansas City at the end of July, performing as one of the Twins' best hitters at the time. The unfortunate side with Kirilloff is his inescapability of the injury bug, but good news came through when doctors found no tear in his labrum surgery. As of now, he is projected to be fully healthy for spring training, which could lead to the first-ever fully healthy season of his MLB career. 3. Trevor Larnach Larnach had an up-and-down season both literally and figuratively. He split more time between the Twins active roster and St. Paul Saints than any other player. His time in St. Paul showed more flourishment than his time in the majors as he posted a .271/.384/.504 triple slash with a .888 OPS across 323 plate appearances with the Saints. But with the Twins, it was a .213/.311/.415 triple slash with a .727 OPS across 212 plate appearances. While it isn’t quite clear if Larnach will remain a Twin this offseason, his playing time both in the majors and minors over the last few seasons has landed him as a 4th outfielder with this team. Matt Wallner has surpassed him in the pecking order of Twins corner outfielders and Larnach turns 27 in February. If he wants to finally land a full-time role before he’s out of his prime age, he may have a better chance of that with a different team than the Twins. 5. Jhoan Duran Duran looked a little more human in 2023 than his lights-out rookie season last year. Despite that, he was still the hardest-throwing pitcher in baseball topping out the fastest pitch thrown in 2023 at 104.8 MPH. Even with five blown saves on the season and an ERA that jumped from 1.86 in 2022 to 2.45 in 2023, Duran was the man he’s lived up to be out of the bullpen when it mattered the most in the postseason. The sky will continue to be the only limit for Duran in 2024. Twins fans will continue to hope the flamethrowing 26-year-old will continue on his path as one of the best relievers this franchise has ever seen. 6. Ryan Jeffers The catcher's 2022 season pushed him into a backup role, but 2023 saw him improve from those struggles and take over the Twins' starting role in the postseason. With his numbers improving drastically from a .648 OPS in 2022 to .858 OPS in 2023, Jeffers cemented himself as the best right-handed hitting catcher in baseball this year. What’s most impressive, and is due credit to his battery-mate behind the plate, Christian Vazquez, is that both these men were healthy all season. And for the first time in a long time, the Twins had to only use two catchers on the active roster all year. The next hurdle for Jeffers is the amount of games played. He still has yet to reach 100 games played in a season in his career, falling just four short of the benchmark this year. However, if the Twins go through with the possibility of trading Vazquez to save on the payroll a bit, there will be nothing to stop him from 100 games in 2024. 12. Brent Rooker The Oakland Athletics did not have many bright spots in a depressing 2023 season. Fortunately, former Twin Brent Rooker was one of those bright spots. Rooker started off the year hot in April, leading the American League with a 1.245 OPS over 22 games. While he cooled off over the next two months, he was still rewarded with the lone all-star selection from the A’s this season. Rooker returned to performing at his All-Star level from April in the final months of the season, reaching the 30 home run mark with a .817 OPS on the season and playing in 137 games. Rooker will likely remain on the Athletics roster as their top power hitter to start 2024. Unless his breakout 2023 season has enticed a team enough to trade for him and bring him to a team that will be in a better place to contend for the 2024 postseason. 13. Akil Baddoo Baddoo kept himself on the Tigers' active roster for most of 2023 playing in 112 games for the runner-up in the American League Central. But Baddoo has not been able to recapture the magic he showed on the diamond during the first half of his rookie year. Baddoo has worked himself into the 4th outfielder role with the Tigers having only 357 plate appearances across those 112 games. His triple slash wasn’t glamorous by any means as he hit .218/.310/.372 with a .682 OPS. He is still a season away from arbitration eligibility and won’t turn 26 until August 16. Time is still favorable for Baddoo to show the success he had when he burst into the majors, but that will also be dependent on who else finds playing time in the Tigers outfield for 2024. 14. Matt Wallner The Forest Lake native fulfilled expectations that were put to him during his brief call-up in 2022. The Twins' reigning Minor League Player of the Year exceeded his rookie status in 2023 and didn’t disappoint in the 76 games he played in. On top of a .249/.370/.507 triple slash and .877 OPS, Wallner quickly became one of the best throwing arms in the outfield per Baseball Savant landing, himself in the 100th percentile in arm strength. Wallner has forged himself into a power-hitting, laser pointer in the outfield that can throw almost any runner out, and it’s a valuable commodity for where the Twins start their outfield in 2024. As fellow Forest Lake native and avid Twins fan Aaron Rupar has said, “Wallner has done some of the coolest things as anyone raised in that town.” Seventy-six games in 2023 was only a sampling of what he can hopefully do in a full season’s worth of games in 2024. 25. Jorge Alcala 2023 looked to be a bounce-back year at the start for Alcala, who missed the majority of last year due to injury. The season did not turn out as many hoped for him, as he once again was limited to 11 games on the year because of injuries. On top of that, he looked rather dreadful across those 11 relief appearances posting a 6.23 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and walked 10 batters in 17.1 innings. He was left off the postseason roster despite seemingly having recovered from injury. Alcala enters his first year of arbitration this offseason. The Twins may consider cutting him loose due to his bad health and poor performance over the last two years. Alcala will be entering his age 28 season, and could still bounce back. Whether that’s in Minnesota or elsewhere remains to be seen. 28. Ben Rortvedt Rortvedt left the Twins alongside Josh Donaldson and Twin-for-a-day Isaiah Kiner-Falefa as a part of the salary dump of Donaldson to New York for Gio Urshela and Gary Sanchez. Rortvedt was either hurt or in the minors all of 2022, but that finally changed in 2023 as he made his Yankee debut on May 20 this year. Rortvedt was up and down all season with the Yankees and was far from glamorous. He only had a .118 batting average in 79 plate appearances across 32 games. Of course, his calling card is his defense, and that's been on display during his time in the majors. He'll keep working to carve out a niche as a quality backup. 30. Josh Winder After making 11 starts in the majors in 2022, Josh Winder converted into a full-time reliever with the Twins in 2023. Winder’s season had limitations due to injury but appeared in 40 games out of the bullpen between the majors and minors. Winder’s days as a starter are likely over, but he’s still a valuable asset to be in the Twins bullpen as the front office formulates what it’ll look like in 2024. Especially if he can maintain his role as a long reliever. Injured most of season 11. Matt Canterino Unlike the above players, Canterino did not play in the majors this season. In fact, he did not pitch at all as he recovered from a late-season Tommy John surgery he underwent in August of 2022. Given he is the only player from the Twins' Top 30 prospect list in 2020 to miss the entire 2023 season due to injury, he falls into this category for simplicity's sake. Before his Tommy John surgery in 2022, Canterino made a name for himself at Double-A Wichita. He had a 1.83 ERA in 34.1 innings across 11 games and was talked about as potential bullpen reinforcement for the end of the Twins 2022 season. The front office did add him to the 40-man roster last offseason to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. There have been no indications he will lose that spot this off-season which could make him a sleeper name to break into the Twins bullpen next spring training. 17. Nick Gordon Gordon started the season off cold, but he may have been cursed the same day teammate Kyle Farmer was drilled in the jaw. He only accumulated six hits across 21 games from April 12th to May 9th and just as he seemed to recover from a bad month at the plate, he broke his tibia in a game against the Dodgers on May 17th. The fracture left Gordon on the injured list for the remainder of the season, with other players such as Farmer, Edouard Julien, and Willi Castro stepping up in roles he often filled in 2022. Now, Gordon’s future with the Twins is up in the air. The Twins may not re-sign him through arbitration this season, and it’s more likely than not he won’t be a part of the team in 2024. 22. Jose Miranda It’s easy to say Miranda had the most disappointing 2023 season out of any Twin. The expectations were high coming off a breakout rookie season, but he fell short of them from the start. A shoulder injury in spring training kept him from playing in the World Baseball Classic, but the effects of that injury lingered into the start of the season. Miranda’s power at the plate was all but zapped away as he was homerless through the first 24 games of the season, before finally getting his first two of the year against the Yankees on April 26th in a 12-6 loss. That two-homer game was the high point of his season as he continued to decline in his performance at the plate, never having his batting average above .240 from that day on. Miranda was optioned down to St. Paul to fix his swing on May 10, and even after Lewis pulled his hamstring and landed on the IL, Miranda wouldn’t last more than five games before reinjuring his shoulder and effectively ending his season. Miranda’s future role with the Twins has more questions than answers. He’s fallen behind Lewis at third base on the depth chart, but could still work as the right-handed hitting side of a first base platoon with Kirilloff. Played in 2023, mostly in the Minors or Indy Ball 4. Jordan Balazovic Balazovic’s longevity with the Twins was tittering on the edge to start the 2023 season. Between a spring training scuffle that left him with a broken jaw, and a bullpen role with the Saints that wasn’t faring much better than his 2022 struggles, Balazovic looked as though he might be let go by the team in mid-June. Then the bullpen had too many injuries to count and he was the last man available in the pecking order of the 40-man roster options. His call-up to the majors turned out to be his saving grace. Balazovic didn’t give up a run in 5 innings over his first three career appearances. He had an even more impressive stretch that followed into July over 12 relief appearances, with only one outing in that stretch where he surrendered more than one run. But he ended the year on a sour note and his future with the organization is very much in doubt. 7. Keoni Cavaco The Twins top draft pick from 2019 missed out on what would've been his first pro season in 2020 and never seemed to recover. He hasn't produced at any level since. Cavaco spent the majority of last season with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. He barely hit above the Mendoza line with his batting average at .203 and had an OPS of .574 across 238 plate appearances in 63 games. Cavaco will not be turning 23 until June 2, 2024, but the young infielder will be growing old for the age group at High A. He needs emerge and break out in a big way. 9. Blayne Enlow Enlow spent the first two months of the season at Double A Wichita and had a dominant stretch posting a 3.17 ERA across 54 innings in 10 starts. Those numbers earned him a call-up to the St. Paul Saints in mid-June, and the effects of Triple-A hitting showed against his stuff. Enlow had a 7.94 ERA in 45.1 innings across 15 outings as a starter and reliever for the Saints. His struggles during his first month and a half with the Saints were bad enough to keep his numbers inflated as he improved over the last two months of the season with the Saints. Enlow still has a good opportunity to turn himself around in the early months of the 2024 season with St. Paul to make himself available as a bullpen call-up option to make his MLB debut with the Twins in 2024. 15. Gilberto Celestino Celestino may have spent a few days on the Twins active roster in 2023, but he never appeared in a game. All of his playing time came in St. Paul this year, and even that was limited to 59 games. His numbers at the plate weren’t as eye-popping as his defense still proved to be. Celestino posted a .244/.385/.386 triple slash with a .771 OPS in 245 plate appearances. The rushed development of Celestino during the center fielder shortage of 2021 proved costly to his hitting abilities. And with Castro filling in as the primary backup centerfielder to Michael A. Taylor, his role with the team doesn’t seem to be necessary anymore going into 2024. 16. Edwar Colina Colina made his MLB debut with the Twins in 2020 but hasn’t appeared in the majors since then. He was in the Rangers organization for all of 2023 pitching at Triple-A Round Rock. This marked his first season in professional baseball since his 2023 debut, and he struggled a bit after a two-year absence. Colina had a 4.65 ERA in 31 innings across 26 relief appearances. His most concerning aspect of his return was lack of command as he had 20 walks to 30 strikeouts adding up to a 1.5 K to BB ratio. Colina is in the Venezuelan League this Winter to refine his command and hope for a better outcome in 2024. 18. Travis Blankenhorn Blankenhorn has become a journeyman minor leaguer since the Twins released him in early 2021. This season was spent in the Nationals organization for Blankenhorn and he didn’t disappoint for the Rochester Red Wings posting a .262/.360/.517 triple slash and .877 OPS in 455 plate appearances across 108 games with them. He earned himself a roster expansion call-up in September and played in 10 games with the Nats, but only had a .161 batting average in 37 plate appearances. 19. Cole Sands Sands's greatest achievement in 2023 may have been the amount of MLB service time accumulated compared to amount of pitches thrown with the Twins. Sands pitched a total of 34 games between the Saints and Twins in 2023. His 19 games with the Saints were some of the most impressive from any pitcher on their roster in 2023 as he posted a 1.47 ERA in 30.2 innings of work. His numbers in his 15 games with the Twins weren’t exactly the same, but they still were an improvement from 2022 as he had a 3.74 ERA in 21.2 innings of work with Minnesota this year. 20. Will Holland Holland has never had a full season of success in the minor leagues since being drafted in the fifth round of the 2019 draft by the Twins. 2023 played out similarly to other seasons. He spent the whole season at Wichita and played in 101 games, but his offensive output was poor as he had a .197/.300/.306 with a .606 OPS. Holland has defensive versatility to play multiple positions on the field, but his offensive output at Double-A doesn’t show any signs of a promotion to Triple-A anytime soon. 21. Misael Urbina Urbina had his first full season up at High A but his performance there wasn’t all too impressive. Across 102 games, Urbina had a .180/.289/.282 triple slash with a .571 OPS across 412 plate appearances. Urbina’s development, like many others, saw drawbacks from the lost 2020 minor league season, and that still carried over into 2023 as he reached his highest level of pro ball yet. Urbina turns 22 in April next year with time still on his side but that window is closing on what he can do at higher levels if he doesn’t have a massive turnaround. 24. Yunior Severino No other minor leaguer hit more home runs across all levels in 2023 than Yunior Severino. His 35 home runs between Double-A and Triple-A powered him to an OPS just short of .900, at .898 on the season. Severino still isn’t a top-notch defensive player as he continued to shuffle around the infield playing all positions but shortstop. With the lack of a defensive home and being eligible for the Rule 5 Draft, there’s no certainty that he’ll remain in the organization for 2024. 26. Emmanuel Rodriguez He was signed as a 16-year-old out of the Dominican Republic in 2019, but COVID-19 delayed his first professional season until 2021. In 2023 Rodriguez felt some of the highest highs and lowest lows of his pro career so far. He enjoyed a sky-high walk rate and flashed big power while continuing to play an exceptional center field. At the same time, he continued striking out at a high rate with a lot of swing and miss in his game. Outside of Brooks Lee and Walker Jenkins, Rodriguez is the most exciting prospect in the Twins system. A strong performance in the Midwest League Championship Series has set him up well to start his 2024 season at Double-A Wichita. 29. Chris Vallimont Chirs Vallimont was claimed off waivers from the Twins by the Orioles in May of 2022. Over a year later, he made his MLB debut with the Birds on July 3. But that sole relief appearance where he only faced three batters would be his only action in the majors this year. Vallimont's contract was purchased by the Cleveland Guardians just three days later. He spent the remainder of the 2023 season at Triple-A Columbus throwing out of the Clippers bullpen. In 16 outings, he had an unimpressive 6.52 ERA in 29 innings. Out of professional baseball entirely 8. Wander Javier Javier once looked to be the next coming of Jorge Polanco, but that all dissipated as his performance stagnated and failed to elevate over several seasons. Javier had a minor league deal with the San Diego Padres in spring training but decided to retire from the game in March before the season even began. 10. Lewis Thorpe Thorpe threw his last pitch in the Twins organization on a cold Saturday afternoon on April 16th, 2022. During a comeback attempt with Independent League Kansas City Monarchs, he posted a 4.96 ERA in 81.2 innings across 16 starts, Thorpe then decided to return to his home country of Australia. The Australian Baseball League begins its 2023-24 season on November 16th, and Thorpe has found himself on the minor-league roster of his hometown Melbourne Aces. While his career in the majors may be over, he looks to continue it in the land down under. 23. Dakota Chalmers Chalmers spent time between the Dodgers organization and Independent Baseball in 2022. But his name was nowhere to be found in pro ball for the entire 2023 season. 27. Gabriel Maciel Maciel spent his 2022 season with the Oakland A’s High A affiliate. He elected free agency at season’s end and hasn’t been heard from since. Totals: 11 players on Active MLB rosters 3 players who could be on Active Rosters but are hurt 13 players who are in the Minors, Japan, or Indy Ball 4 players completely out of baseball The outcome from these top 30 MLB Pipeline prospects in 2020 just three years later is a strong showing for the franchise. One-third of the players ended their seasons in the majors, and half of them could find realistically themselves there in 2024. What’s most impressive is that the top six players (Lewis, Kirilloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, and Jeffers), all had some form of consistent playing time with the Twins this season. Rarely does a team’s former top five or six prospects earn those opportunities all at the same time, and all have a chance to do so again in 2024. View full article

The Twins fell short in the postseason, mainly due to a lack of hitting. Some players stepped up and established themselves as playoff threats, and others wilted under the pressure. Will the lineup be able to take the next step in 2024? Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports In 2023, the conversation for the Twins in the playoffs finally changed. There were media outlets in September suggesting it would be good for the five seed to “tank” in order to face three-seeded Minnesota in the Wild Card round since “bulletin board material” didn’t apply to such a cursed franchise. But no longer can the Twins’ chances be reduced to a hand wave and a chuckle – they won as many games as they lost, including nearly handing the Astros a loss in the ALDS for the first time since the Obama administration. Now the conversation has to be (as with all playoff teams) what the Twins need in order to go further in 2024. They didn’t hit much against the Astros (or the Blue Jays for that matter), with a number of their hitters failing to eclipse the .600 mark in OPS for the two rounds. However, we did see evidence of a few guys who could terrify future playoff opponents by virtue of what they did in October 2023. Edouard Julien: He drew five walks in the six games, with three extra base hits and zero errors/misplays on defense. His OPS for the playoffs was a stout 1.043. He did make two baserunning errors, one ghastly (game one of the ALDS), and one a product of bad luck (game four). Julien showed that his blend of power and patience will play in the postseason. His home run and double in game four gave the Twins some life, and his pinch-hit, bases loaded, two-out single in game two sealed a win. He is a playoff caliber leadoff hitter. Royce Lewis: He posted an OPS over 1.100 in the playoffs, with four home runs that put him on the precipice of setting the Twins’ all-time playoff record. After six games. He appeared to press at times, swinging at some spiked breaking balls in crucial moments, but he’s also played in only 76 career games to this point, including the playoffs. Seeing more pitchers and how they attack him should make him even more of a threat next October. Carlos Correa: He also eclipsed a 1.000 OPS, and threw in some of the savviest shortstop play I have ever seen with his pickoff of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and deke of Jose Abreu. His performance sealed his reputation as a known quantity in the playoffs, regardless of how his regular season goes. In 2020, he posted an OPS lower than what he posted in 2023 sans any plantar fasciitis issues. In the playoffs he hit for a 1.209 OPS and six home runs in twelve games that year. That isn’t to say he is automatic in the playoffs, but he will be ready. Jorge Polanco: This one is borderline. Polanco’s .653 2023 playoff OPS doesn’t stand out, except when you compare it to the rest of the Twins’ lineup. He drew four walks and popped a key three-run home run in game one of the ALDS that drew a collective gulp from everyone in the stadium that day. Polanco has proven he can hit in the playoffs. He was one of the few players to show up for the 2019 ALDS, hitting a first inning homer in game one, then tying the game with a single in the fifth. His defense is another matter. He went about 1-4 in fielding chances against Toronto and the specter of his missed flip in 2020 still haunts me to this day. Outside of those hitters and Kyle Farmer, the rest of the position player group didn’t inspire much confidence. Playoff pitching just doesn’t compare to the regular season. It rewards superstars (Yordan Alvarez) and guys who play within themselves (Martin Maldonado). It can be hard to identify who will play the Jason Kubel (1-29 career in the postseason) role in a given playoff series, and the Twins had a few this year. Chief among those was Ryan Jeffers. Outside of two hits in game one of the ALDS, Jeffers contributed nothing offensively. Two walks and a lot of strikeouts. He hit some balls hard, but he also made you wonder if keeping the playoff-tested Christian Vazquez on the bench for every game was the right move. Watching Vazquez’s at-bats down the stretch compared to Jeffers’ catcher-leading OPS made it a justifiable decision, but giving Vazquez a start or two may have butterfly-effected an extra scoring opportunity. We’ll never know. Matt Wallner went hitless in twelve plate appearances for the playoffs, although he did contribute three walks and a key hit-by-pitch. His inability to make contact against jumpy fastballs was exposed, and he’ll have to work and adjust in order to avoid a reputation as a mistake crusher who wilts against good pitching. Max Kepler was victimized by two terrible strike three calls against Houston, and he did collect a hit in his first five games of the playoffs. But even at his best, Kepler isn’t a cleanup hitter for a serious playoff lineup. He struck out 14 times in the six games and was worth -1.6% cWPA (championship win probability added) against the Astros. As a seven hole hitter, his skill set would play a lot better. Alex Kirilloff was playing through a torn labrum in his lead hitting shoulder, and performed as such. He is a little jumpy at the plate, even when healthy (taking strikes, then swinging at balls). But his elite plate coverage and all-fields power could be a major asset on future playoff teams. Now, having only three hitters clicking at the same time can certainly play in the playoffs. The 2019 Nationals provided proof of that concept with Juan Soto, Howie Kendrick and Anthony Rendon delivering a World Series championship that year. But ideally, you would want more lineup depth than that. Wallner has shown an ability to make adjustments, Jeffers has shown an ability to hit good pitching, Byron Buxton is always a wild card, and Kirilloff has shown the skill set to succeed in October. But if the front office doesn’t add another big bat this offseason, that may be a decision they could come to regret, especially given that the pitching will be hard-pressed to match this year's production. What do you think? Is the projected 2024 lineup good enough to take the next step as is, or does it need another piece? Sound off in the comments. View full article

The Twins signed Christian Vazquez last winter to add depth at the catcher position. However, he just finished one of the worst offensive seasons of his career, and Minnesota might need to shed some veteran salary. Image courtesy of Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports One year ago, the Twins wondered what to do about the catcher position. Gary Sanchez had led the team in appearances during the 2022 season but was heading to free agency. Minnesota wanted a veteran player to pair with Ryan Jeffers behind the plate. Early in the offseason, the Twins identified Vazquez as their top free agent target and quickly signed him to a three-year, $30 million deal. The team brought him in to provide solid defense, hoping he could provide some offense at the back end of the lineup. Vazquez struggled offensively during his first season with the Twins. In 102 games, he hit .223/.280/.318 (.598) with 19 extra-base hits and 82 strikeouts. His 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. According to FanGraphs, Vazquez provided the Twins with $7.6 million worth of value during the 2023 season. Over the last five seasons, Vazquez has been worth anywhere from $28.1 million (2019) to $2.7 million (2021). There have been good and bad seasons throughout his career, so the Twins can hope he bounces back in 2024. Even with poor offensive totals, Vazquez remains a strong defensive catcher. He ranked fifth among AL catchers in SABR’s Defensive Index when the totals were last updated. Baseball Savant ranked him in the 70th percentile or higher in Blocks Above Average and Framing while also being above average in Pop Time. His Caught Stealing Above Average moved from the 34th percentile last season to the 61st percentile in 2023. His defensive numbers and how he handles a pitching staff are the main reasons the Twins continued to split time between their two catchers. Minnesota’s evolving payroll situation is in flux entering the offseason. The Twins are unsure of their television home for 2024 and beyond after their contract with Bally Sports expired at the season’s end. As John wrote over the weekend, the team’s TV rights were worth $54.8 million in 2023, and that revenue is in question for next season. Last year, the Twins' payroll was a team record $154 million on Opening Day, and the Twins have roughly $124 million committed for next season if they bring everyone back besides free agents. The Twins can trade away higher-priced veterans to open some spending, but the team will likely have to pay some of Vazquez’s contract to get anything back. The Twins have an intriguing catching prospect that played the entire 2023 season at Triple-A. Jair Camargo was acquired along with Kenta Maeda from the Dodgers leading into the 2020 season. At the time, he was a 20-year-old catcher who had yet to play a game above the High-A level. In 2023, he played 90 games at Triple-A and hit .259/.323/.503 (.826) with 16 doubles and 21 home runs. Camargo became a minor-league free agent last year but quickly signed to stay with the Twins. He is a logical candidate for the Twins to add to the 40-man roster, and they will need to do so before he again becomes a free agent at the completion of the World Series. Would the front office trust him enough to take over a backup role to Jeffers? The free-agent catcher market is sparse this winter, which might make teams more interested in trading for Vazquez. Former Twins Mitch Garver and Gary Sanchez are some of the best options, and both players have flaws in their game. Garver is seen more as a DH option, with the Rangers giving him fewer than 30 starts behind the plate. In addition to Garver's forearm surgery that cut his 2022 season in half, Jonah Heim has become an All Star backstop for the Rangers. Sanchez struggled to find an organization last season before finding a home in San Diego and posting a 116 OPS+ in 72 games. Neither player is considered strong behind the plate, and that’s why organizations might start looking for trade options. The Twins still like Vazquez, and they likely believe he can return to his previous offensive production. He previously had poor seasons and bounced back nicely the following year. However, Vazquez is 33 years old, and he’s caught over 6,200 innings at the big-league level. That’s a lot of wear and tear on a player’s legs, which can impact offensive performance toward the end of a career. Minnesota must decide which version of Vazquez will enter spring training next season. Depth became a theme for the 2023 Twins, and it’s likely one reason the team won the AL Central. Minnesota was lucky to make it through the season by only needing two catchers for the entire season. That won’t happen again next year, so the Twins will likely keep Vazquez and find other spots on the roster to make cuts. Will the Twins keep Vazquez or try to trade him? What kind of value does he have on the trade market? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins showed their hand this offseason when Ryan Jeffers started every game. With Christian Vázquez under contract through 2025, the Twins could have a compelling offseason regarding the catching tandem in place. Image courtesy of Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports Christian Vázquez struggled significantly at the plate throughout much of 2023. His down year came to a head in the postseason, where his lack of a single appearance confirmed that he's undoubtedly the backup to Ryan Jeffers moving forward. On the wrong side of 30 years of age, and with multiple years of a relatively high salary remaining, could the Twins shake up the catching mix this winter? The Twins aggressively pursued Christian Vázquez last winter, eventually signing him to a 3-year, $30m contract to ensure he came to Minnesota. The bottom fell out in the deal's first year, as Vázquez posted a .598 OPS. His barrel rate plummeted to just 3.2%, and he struck out a career-high 23.1% of the time. At 32 years of age, it's fair to wonder whether this was a skills decline rather than just a down year. To the credit of Vázquez, he was still a plus defender behind the plate, something that the Twins indeed value for good reason. His blocking and framing were still excellent, even if his pop time declined. The defense is a significant consideration for two reasons. From the Twins' perspective, it may help bridge the gap between his offensive decline and the price tag. We know by now that the Twins believe in a near timeshare behind the plate to keep their catchers fresh. As long as Vázquez remains a plus defender, he'll likely still be seen as a perfectly viable option to start roughly half of the time in 2024. On the other hand, the defense could offer one final chance for the Twins to get out of the remaining $20m through 2025. After such a down year offensively, it may be hard to envision teams lining up to trade for Christian Vázquez, but it's not impossible. Just one offseason ago, the Twins had to go to great lengths to outbid multiple other teams. It may be tempting if they're willing to pay down at least some of the money to trade him and have a few million to spend elsewhere. When it comes to backup catchers, there are always plenty of options. Another significant factor in how the Twins pursue the catching position for 2024 likely has much to do with their opinion of Jair Camargo. The 24-year-old spent all of 2024 in St. Paul with a league-average .253/.323/.503 slash line. He slugged 21 homers with adequate defense behind the plate. He may not be a top prospect, but if the Twins believe he can hold his own offensively and play passable defense, he would likely be a fine backup catcher. The allure of this scenario is that Camargo would make the league minimum instead of $10m. The Twins could sign another glove-first backup at a more appropriate price tag, with Camargo still waiting in the wings in the event of injury. There may not be exciting names hitting the open market to replace Vázquez. Still, a player such as Victor Caratini could make sense as a switch hitter who provided near-league-average offense and plus defense last season and still won't break the bank. The Twins will have to decide this winter whether so much shuffling would be worth it at such a low-impact position. With revenues likely to decline with the TV network situation, it could be a reasonable way to save a few million. It's also possible they still see Vázquez as worthy of his $10m price tag, which would be fair given his strong defense. Perhaps they even project him to bounce back to some degree with the bat in 2024. After signing a sizeable three-year deal, it's been an odd first year for Christian Vázquez. Should the Twins look to move on from Christian Vázquez in 2024 to reallocate some payroll? Do they have what they need in Jair Camargo, or can they find another worthy replacement? Let us know below! View full article

We all dig the long ball! If you're like us, you really liked these 2023 Twins home runs. Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports With the season now at a bittersweet end, Twins fans should consider what matters most: our favorite moments when hitters smashed a ball out of the park. Although this list is entirely subjective, I did my best to collect a diverse set of well-timed dingers from the season. Let's review. 13. Joey Gallo Breaks Statcast vs. Hayden Wesneski (Cubs), May 13. Exit Velocity: 110.6 mph, Distance: 422 feet Most Twins fans would probably be happy to forget Joey Gallo’s frustrating Twins tenure. But the former Ranger had a monster start to the season, including a 1.066 OPS in the first month. In particular, how could anyone forget Gallo’s monster three-run shot against Cleveland that broke Statcast, the analytics tracker. Speculation about the distance of the ball took over Twins Twitter—did Gallo break 500 feet?—before the reported distance came in at a surprisingly minuscule 422 feet (the culprit turned out to be the poor launch angle; in fact, Alex Kirilloff hit one the same distance that day). But for those watching, the eye test made it seem like Gallo smacked it to another dimension. 12. Max Kepler Comes in the Clutch vs. Paul Sewald (Diamondbacks), August 6. Exit Velocity: 110.4 mph, Distance: 438 feet Max Kepler was the consensus favorite among Twins Daily writers for Most Improved Player of the Year. Continually cited as a DFA candidate throughout the early months, Kepler's sudden power surge came at opportune times, including several late innings smacks that often turned the scoreboard back in Minnesota’s favor. Just a week after the trade deadlines, Kepler faced down Mariners-turned-Diamondbacks closer Paul Sewald. Down a run going into the bottom of the ninth, Kepler wasted no time and launched the pitch to tie the game. It was one of several moments that the right fielder made count in the second half. 11. Matt Wallner Goes Very, Very Far vs. Paul Blackburn (Athletics), September 26, Exit Velocity: 114.5 mph, Distance: 463 feet There was a lot of hope for Matt Wallner coming into the season after his late-season debut in 2022. Even during a slump late in the season, Wallner continued to get on base and prove his worth. During a final week game against the Athletics, Wallner smoked one from starter Paul Blackburn with the bases loaded a massive 463 feet, one of the longest home runs of the season that had fans in the upper deck scrambling for a ball they never expected to land anywhere near them. Expect a lot more like that next season. 10. Carlos Correa Declares His Time vs. Devin Williams (Brewers), June 13, Exit Velocity: 108.6 mph, Distance: 408 feet It became a running joke in my household that I would declare Carlos Correa finally “back,” only to watch another week of struggles due to his injuries. Correa’s lack of clutch hitting this season may have frustrated Twins fans, though most writers on this site would argue his playoff performance wiped away the slate. Even within that struggle, Correa found quite a few moments to awe fans and teammates alike. None felt like a personal victory, as much as a bottom of the 9th smack against the Brewers. Closer Devin Williams had already given away the lead on a Michael A. Taylor home run. Fans were already joking that Correa was due for a double play with a runner on first. Instead, the shortstop took a 1-1 pitch deep to left field to walk it off. He immediately pointed at his wrist in one of his classic moves: “It’s my time.” 9. Ryan Jeffers Lasers the Ball vs. Bryan Abreu (Astros), May 29, Exit Velocity: 117.4 mph, Distance: 374 feet There were several highlights as Ryan Jeffers rose from backup catcher to Joe Mauer’s apparent heir, as both the team and fans saw a swing that seemed full of dynamite. What has always made Jeffers’s dingers fun is how incredibly unique they are. Rather than get the right launch angle, the dingers look like cruise missiles. How else can you categorize this critical extra inning hit against the Astros in May? Coming off the bat at 117 mph, look at how quickly the ball gets out to the Crawford Boxes. It’s a shame Jeffers could not match it during the ALDS, but the potential remains. 7-8. Byron Buxton Obliterates It…Twice vs. Brandon Walter (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 112.2 mph, Distance: 466 feet vs. Justin Garza (Red Sox), June 22, Exit Velocity: 111.9 mph, Distance: 465 feet Fans will debate the contours of Byron Buxton’s disappointing season, not only due to the injuries that once again plagued his availability but also the poor performance as a Designated Hitter. Although the All-Star had transformed himself from a hit-and-run guy into a power hitter, the DH position seemed to change his mental stance and balloon his strikeout rate. But when that power came, it sure did. His June 22nd game against the Red Sox showed the Buxton that we all desperately desired, pulverizing not just one but two dingers. The first was 466 feet, and the second nearly matched it at 465 feet. No hitter since the Statcast Era began had ever hit multiple home runs over 460 feet. Buxton’s response? “They all count the same, so if they go over, they all feel good.” Let’s see it again next year, Buck. 3-4-5-6. Royce Lewis, Holy S**T! vs. Xzavion Curry (Guardians), August 27, Exit Velocity: 98.2 mph, Distance: 393 feet vs. Chris Stratton (Rangers), August 28, Exit Velocity: 111.7 mph, Distance: 423 feet vs. Lucas Giolito (Guardians), September 4, Exit Velocity: 107.6 mph, Distance: 401 feet vs. Jesse Scholtens (White Sox), September 15, Exit Velocity: 99.9 mph, Distance: 397 feet How can you even begin to explain it? Royce Lewis, He is Him. Lewis hit four grand slams throughout the season, a ridiculous record that already put him on the top of numerous Twins record lists. They all came after he spent over a month recovering from an oblique strain, almost like he was never injured in the first place. Luck is always a factor in whether a player will even have an opportunity, but Lewis relished it. None of these dingers were particularly unique, but the fact it kept happening, repeatedly felt like a new page of baseball had arrived in Minnesota. If I had to choose only one, I would choose the third against Cleveland. The smash against Lucas Giolito made the game a 6-0 ball game, and, more importantly, signaled to the still barely in-the-running Guardians that their season was over. The Era of Lewis has arrived. 1-2. Royce Lewis Breaks the Curse vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 105.5 mph, Distance: 386 feet vs. Kevin Gausman (Blue Jays), October 3, Exit Velocity: 104.2 mph, Distance: 397 feet I initially began drafting this list before the playoffs. Only minutes into Minnesota’s first playoff game did it become apparent I needed a different home run to top this list. The game that ended Minnesota's 0-18 playoff curse perhaps surprised some as boppers from both sides of the plate went quiet - except one. Minnesota beat the Blue Jays 3-1. The entire difference was, once again, Royce Lewis. Lewis put himself and the entire Twins team on the map through his dingers to left and then to center, both off Cy Young candidate Kevin Gausman. Only to add insult to injury, these were his first two plate appearances in over a week after a hamstring pulled him out of the regular season. The man could barely run to first base, and here he was, creating a Minnesota Miracle. By the end of the team’s run, Lewis popped four home runs over the six playoff games. The cruelest part of the end of the Twins season? Having to wait a whole year for Lewis to cement his name as a new "Mr. October." Did you have any favorite home runs from the season? (Perhaps from the Yankees series?) Include them in the comments below. View full article

The Minnesota Twins finished out their 2023 regular season on Wednesday night. Although it didn’t end the way they had hoped, the season was nothing short of a resounding success. Looking toward 2024, it’s now worth wondering which players will be back. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s club was able to accomplish new heights this season because of the roster the front office built. It wasn’t only the talent that the club had at its disposal, but the way the team gelled. Veterans to rookies, and everyone in between, was able to do their job while creating a significant feeling of clubhouse camaraderie. Last week MLB Trade Rumors put out their yearly arbitration projections. The site is the gold standard for such things, and most agreements often fall closely to their suggested numbers. The Twins have nine players eligible for arbitration this offseason, and not all of them are likely to return. Here is how I see the group shaking out: Guaranteed - Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M), Alex Kirilloff ($1.7M) There are a couple of players that may trend towards this designation, but no one hits it quite like Jeffers and Kirilloff do. Minnesota spent $30 million on Christian Vazquez this offseason, and they would probably be open to parting with him this offseason. Jeffers broke out in a big way posting an .858 OPS with a career-high 96 games played. He was originally slated as the 1B to Vazquez’s 1A, but his production forced the Twins’ hand. He will be back next season as the regular starter for Baldelli. At first base, 2023 gave Kirilloff the opportunity to fully establish himself at the position. Not only did he get a late start due to injury ramp-up during spring training, but he also missed time with a shoulder issue. Offseason surgery is again on the table, and while he didn’t do anything to cement his claim at the position, his 117 OPS+ was hardly an issue. He should be expected to be the Opening Day starter at first, but finding a capable right-handed platoon partner makes a lot of sense. Highly Likely - Willi Castro ($3.2M), Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Arguably the team’s MVP for his production as a swiss-army knife, Castro joined Minnesota on a minor league deal after spending the entirety of his career with the Detroit Tigers. He posted a ridiculous 153 OPS+ in 36 games during 2020 as a rookie, but his 106 OPS+ in 124 games this season was much more impressive. He played every position except for first base and catcher while giving Baldelli a switch-hitting option throughout the lineup. He established himself as one of the best utility players in baseball and took that crown from a teammate also on this list. The only real reason Thielbar wouldn’t be back is that his number continues to creep upwards. The Twins haven’t shown an affinity to spend on the bullpen, and this would be more than a $500k jump from 2023. Thielbar’s secondary numbers were not as good as they have been, and he was uncharacteristically burned by the long ball. Houston got him multiple times in the American League Division Series, and though that can leave a sour taste, he is still one of the league’s best left-handed relievers. Somewhat Unlikely - Kyle Farmer ($6.6M), Jorge Alcala ($1M) When Minnesota acquired Farmer from the Reds, I was told that his presence was the exact type of player the franchise desperately needed a season ago. A consummate professional who can be a steadying voice in the clubhouse, he continued to go out and do his job. He provided the same offensive value he gave Cincinnati each of the past two seasons and proved invaluable as a starting-caliber shortstop when Carlos Correa missed time. His number jumping up another $500k or so makes the decision difficult, but for a team looking at a level of veteran continuity, it could be sensible to bring him back. At just $1 million, it’s not that Alcala is expensive. He has been paid at the Major League level for quite some time to produce very little, however. A mainstay on the 60-day injured list, Alcala has thrown just 19 2/3 innings since 2021. When he did pitch this year, he was not good, and the secondary numbers have never agreed with the level that the production has equated to. Minnesota could bring him back to round out the pen, but finding another Brock Stewart, Jeff Hoffman, or similar minor league signing to take a spot probably has a higher success rate. Highly Unlikely - Jordan Luplow ($1.6M), Nick Gordon ($1M), Jose De Leon ($740k) We already saw the Twins go down the hole of designating Luplow for assignment. Rather than completing the process, they kept him around and he ultimately made it through the end of the season. He was brought in off of waivers from Toronto after the front office decided against doing anything at the trade deadline. It was odd to decide the right-handed bat was necessary just days after opting against a better trade option, but he’s not someone who can’t be replaced internally. This was nothing short of a lost season for Gordon, who started badly and finished injured. He never made his way back to the Major League roster and owned a .503 OPS in just 34 games. He carved his way into the Twins' plans, despite being a former first-round pick with lost prospect luster, by creating defensive utility. Castro all but took over that role, and did so at a higher level. For $1 million it’s not going to break the bank to keep him around, but with Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, or a few other prospects close it’s hard to find room for him. Once the dangled return from the Dodgers in exchange for Brian Dozier, De Leon made his way to Minnesota as a minor league free agent. He started a game and made 11 other appearances totaling 17 1/3 innings. Despite looking like a decent relief option, he blew out his elbow and underwent Tommy John surgery for the second time in his career. It was a disappointing result for a guy who has already battled back so many times. There’s no reason to offer him arbitration, but Minnesota could stay in touch and look at keeping him around on another minor-league deal. What do you think of the players up for arbitration from the Twins? Who would you keep and who would you part with? Share your thoughts in the comments. View full article

Regression hitting like a load of bricks, key players failing to step up in favorable matchups, and regular-season warning signs coming to roost: These were the defining letdowns that led to Minnesota's postseason exit. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports I want to start by saying that, at long last, a lot went RIGHT for the Twins in these playoffs. They snapped a 19-year losing streak, they triumphantly swept the Blue Jays at home, and they made the defending champs sweat in the ALDS. You're not going to catch me calling this year a failure. But at the end of the day, the Twins did come up short. And they did so in rather painful fashion, after Sunday night's victory set them up in very favorable position to come home and take control against the Astros. So here in this postmortem, we'll dissect four key things that went wrong for the Twins and led to their exit in the second round of the playoffs. 1. Legitimate fears came to fruition. This is the banner headline that encapsulates several different subplots. The frustrating thing about Minnesota's most fatal flaws in the postseason is that, in many cases, they weren't that hard to see coming. These were concerns that long loomed in our minds, and caused apprehension as we looked ahead to the high stakes of October. In particular, these are three striking examples of how our fears turned into reality. The offense goes back into its shell: Performances like Tuesday and Wednesday were the team's calling card in the first half, as they compiled strikeouts at a historic rate and frequently no-showed in the runs column. Even with all the improvement in the second half, those kinds of games were still mixed in -- the byproduct of a lineup prone to striking out in bunches, and shriveling up in damage spots. Regression slaps Sonny Gray in the face: There were clear signs of unsustainability in the 33-year-old's phenomenal regular season numbers. Namely: Gray's penchant for wriggling out of jams and limiting home runs to an extreme degree. All that regression pretty much came to a head on one devastating pitch to Jose Abreu with two runners on in Game 3. Alex Kirilloff playing hurt: The oft-injured first baseman missed all of August with a shoulder issue that seemed pretty serious, but made it back to play 19 games in September. His numbers were fine (.766 OPS) but Kirilloff hardly looked like he was at his best, and the team noticeably took it easy with his usage. Fears that his shoulder might still be bothering him were confirmed when AK exited Game 3 and was removed from the roster afterward. 2. Ryan Jeffers failed to live up to the team's hopes. The Twins really put their eggs in the Jeffers basket, and understandably so. He had a tremendous season, ranking second among MLB catchers in wOBA and second among all Twins position players in fWAR. Rocco Baldelli figured he had a big advantage in being able to run out that kind of bat behind the plate, so he did so in all six games. Unfortunately, Jeffers did not deliver, managing just two singles and two walks in 25 plate appearances. The decision to use Jeffers exclusively meant, in turn, that Christian Vazquez saw zero action in the entire postseason. Again, it's justifiable given how bad his bat was all season, but Vazquez was signed in large part for his seasoning on the big stages of Boston and Houston. He's battle-tested, but never got tested in this losing battle. 3. The lefty bats couldn't capitalize or cash in. One of the biggest reasons for optimism around the Twins in these playoffs was how well their lefty-powered lineup was set up for success based on match-ups. Minnesota's ALWC opponent, the Blue Jays, threw two right-handed starters. The Astros brought a bullpen devoid of lefty arms into the ALDS. Players like Kirilloff, Edouard Julien, Max Kepler and Matt Wallner were in a position to shine after hammering right-handed pitching all year long. With the exception of Julien, none did. Kirilloff went 0-for-9 while playing hurt. Wallner was 0-for-8. Kepler went 5-for-23 (.217) with 10 strikeouts, one walk, one run scored, and zero batted in. He struck out looking at strike three to end the Twins' season on Wednesday, exploding into frustration as his lifetime playoff average dropped to .146. 4. Caleb Thielbar's biggest weakness came to bite him. Thielbar has been a spectacular performer and awesome story in the Twins bullpen. Returning from pseudo-retirement in his mid-30s, he's put together one of the better multi-year stretches for a reliever in Twins history, posting a 3.21 ERA since 2020. He was really good once again this year, despite missing time with an oblique injury, but one issue haunted the left-hander: home runs. He gave up seven this year in just 30 ⅔ innings, with his fastball victimized most frequently. Here, in contrast to Sonny Gray, you'd hope for a little positive regression; home runs had never really been a big problem for Thielbar in the past, and 30 innings is a small sample size. But the long ball was most definitely a problem for Thielbar in this ALDS. In Game 1 he gave up a homer to Yordan Alvarez, extending Houston's lead from one to two in the seventh inning. That one hurt, coming immediately after Minnesota's offense narrowed the deficit in the top half. But it didn't hurt as much as the next one. On Wednesday, Jose Abreu got hold of a 1-0 pitch from Thielbar -- a fastball -- and drove it over the fence in right for a tie-breaking (ultimately game-winning) home run. According to Baseball Reference it was the single most pivotal play of the series. Mistakes and missed opportunities are magnified on the big stage in October. These are the ones that will have an outsized impression in my mind as I look back at this run and what could've been. View full article

Facing a surefire Hall-of-Famer in Justin Verlander, the Twins staged a rally against the Astros' bullpen after falling behind early. Jorge Polanco and Royce Lewis homered, but Yordan Alvarez homered twice, and Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressley held the last two innings to secure the win in game one. Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Box Score: Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober: 3 IP, 4 H, 3 ER, 0 BB, 2 K (43 Pitches, 28 Strikes, 65%) Home Runs: Jorge Polanco (1), Royce Lewis (3) Bottom 3 WPA: Ober (-.159), Alex Kirilloff (-.130), Matt Wallner (-0.96) Win Probability Chart (Via Fangraphs): The Twins took care of business at home against a mercurial Toronto Blue Jays team, allowing one run over the two games en route to the first postseason sweep in Twins/Senators history. Pablo Lopez and Sonny Gray were as advertised, but the offense let quite a few opportunities slip away. Against the defending champion Astros, the lineup would likely need to produce. The Astros were the only AL team that outhit the Twins in the second half, and still feature a menacing, experienced lineup. The Twins turned to Bailey Ober for game one, citing the Astros lack of at-bats against him, as well as Joe Ryan's inability to keep the ball in the ballpark. It would seem Ober had the moxie to take on a tough team on the road, given his domination this year against the Orioles in Baltimore (7 IP, 0 ER), and against the Dodgers in LA (6 IP, 1 ER). The Astros started the legendary Justin Verlander. He has not quite pitched to the elite level he had established over the years, but maintains decent velocity, exceptional command and knee-buckling breaking stuff. The casual fan might think this was a lopsided pitching matchup, and they would be proven right. The first inning started great. Edouard Julien drew a walk as Verlander had trouble commanding his breaking pitches. Jorge Polanco then drove a hanging curveball for a sharp single. Royce Lewis then got ahead in the count before grounding into a double play to extinguish most of the rally. Max Kepler then walked, but Verlander got Alex Kirilloff to tap out to end the threat. A 23 pitch inning with only 10 strikes from Verlander might have been considered a win. But as he has done so often, Jose Altuve jumped on a first pitch fastball and crushed it 377 feet for a 1-0 Houston lead. Ober settled down after that, getting pop-ups from Alex Bregman and Jose Abreu and convincingly striking out Yordan Alvarez on a high fastball to limit the damage. The Twins built another threat in the second. After Carlos Correa bounced a single off the second base bag, Matt Wallner lined out. Ryan Jeffers then drove a hanging breaking ball into left field, giving the Twins runners on first and second with one out. Michael A. Taylor then jumped on the first pitch, a fastball, and tapped into an inning-ending double play. After an uneventful bottom of the second, Julien started the third by banging an 0-2 fastball off the wall in left-center field for a double. But after a Polanco strikeout, Royce Lewis lined a grounder sharply to Bregman, who caught Julien trying to advance and tagged him out after a brief run-down. Kepler then struck out on a beautiful curveball from Verlander to end the inning. After impressively getting Altuve to pop out to start the third, Ober had a slide slip out of his hand that hit Bregman. He then threw a middle-middle changeup to Alvarez, who does not miss such pitches. 3-0 Astros. That spelled the end of Ober's outing. Kenta Maeda was warming prior to Alvarez's home run, and entered to start the fourth. It is unclear whether Ober would have been allowed to go longer had he kept the score 1-0, but in any event Maeda worked a scoreless fourth. He pitched around a single and walk to Martin Maldonado, but got Altuve to ground out to end the frame. Unfortunately for the Twins, Verlander had found his command by that point and started mowing down hitters with ruthless efficiency. Taylor was mercifully hit with a pitch behind in the count in the fifth, but Julien and Polanco struck out on curveballs to end whatever threat that represented. The Astros added insurance in the fifth. Bregman singled and Alvarez drew a walk. After a Tucker lineout, Abreu popped up to left field. However, Wallner was shading Abreu to the gap and couldn't it down, allowing the fourth run to score. Chas McCormick then singled sharply to Wallner, who came up firing to nab Alvarez at home. Abreu deked Kirilloff into cutting the ball off to retire him at third while Alvarez score the fifth run. It is hard to say if Wallner's throw would have been in time, but it certainly looked like there was a chance. Chris Paddack took over for Maeda in the sixth and pitched a perfect inning. Good timing, because Verlander was out of the game after six. Wallner led off the seventh with one of his customary hit-by-pitches, Jeffers singled, and after two strikeouts, Polanco launched a Hector Neris fastball for a three-run homer. Lewis then followed with a homer of his own to cut the lead to one. Unfortunately for the Twins, Alvarez was due up the next inning. After Paddack retired Bregman on strikes, Rocco Baldelli brought in Caleb Thielbar to face "Air Yordan." Thielbar has struggled with the home run ball, and Alvarez doesn't care who pitches to him. A curveball was left up just a little, and the Astros' DH crushed it to make it a two-run game. This was crucial not just for its impact on the game, but the rest of the series. The Twins purposely did not carry Kody Funderburk this round, mainly because the Astros lefties don't have much in the way of platoon splits. If Thielbar was supposed to represent the Twins' counter to Alvarez/Tucker, that didn't get off to a great start. It will interesting to see whether Thielbar gets another crack at them. Another key play happened after Abreu walked. Trying to advance on a wild pitch, Jeffers gunned him down as he appeared to coast into second Correa seemed to deke Abreu by motioning for Jeffers not to throw, then made a quick tag for the final out. The Twins threatened again in the eighth, with Correa delivering his second hit, a leadoff double against Bryan Abreu. But Wallner and Jeffers struck out, while Willi Castro grounded out sharply to Altuve to end the frame. Ryan Pressley pitched a 1-2-3 ninth for the save. The good: Polanco took good swings all night and looked more comfortable at third, making a nice spear of Tucker's line drive in the fifth. Lewis got his first hit since his second home in game one against Toronto, and made it count with a long home run in the seventh. Paddack was sharp, retiring all four batters he faced. The Twins got to Neris for four runs and forced ace reliever Bryan Abreu to throw 29 pitches. Correa had two hits and was again impressive in the field. Jhoan and Duran did not have to pitch, while Abreu and Pressley did, portending a potential advantage in game two. The bad: Ober made two bad pitches, and paid a big price. Maeda was dinked and dunked into allowing his two runs, but clearly wasn't the shutdown reliever he had been with the Dodgers. Julien made his crucial baserunning mistake after his double to start the third. He may have thought there were two outs, or he just lost focus. Either way, it cost the Twins while Verlander was still finding his command. What’s Next: Pablo Lopez (11-8, 3.66 ERA) faces off against Framber Valdez (12-11, 3.45) as the Twins look to even the series. Postgame Interviews: MON TUE WED THU FRI SAT TOT Maeda 0 0 0 0 0 43 43 Thielbar 0 10 4 0 0 18 32 Durán 0 14 13 0 0 0 27 Jax 0 8 15 0 0 0 23 Paddack 0 0 0 0 0 19 19 Varland 0 2 17 0 0 0 19 Pagán 0 0 0 0 0 14 14 Stewart 0 0 13 0 0 0 13 Funderburk 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

A year after the Minnesota Twins found themselves watching a postseason berth slip out of their grasp, they have instead flipped the script and utilized depth to capture an AL Central Division title. With the regular season complete, there are a handful of players who most contributed to such a solid 2023. The 2023 season was out of the norm for the Minnesota Twins in that they carried more depth than the organization had previously shown an inkling to, and pitching became a strength fans haven’t seen in quite some time. Making a move to acquire pitching prior to the season, the Twins parted with their 2022 MVP in Luis Arraez. Pablo Lopez ultimately became everything the organization had hoped would be, and the deal looked like a good one for both sides. Rocco Baldelli again had to manage through more than a few key injuries, and he had plenty of youth step in along the way to help the club hold serve. Holding off the Cleveland Guardians was a bit hairy at times, but Minnesota ultimately won the division going away. Although the MVP in both leagues is often seen as a hitter’s award, it became too obvious to ignore the strength of Minnesota’s pitching this season. With Lopez finishing second in the voting, Sonny Gray earned the Twins Daily selection for the 2023 Minnesota Twins Most Valuable Player. Acquired from the Cincinnati Reds in exchange for former first round pick Chase Petty, Gray was a piece Derek Falvey thought that Rocco Baldelli’s starting rotation desperately needed. A proven veteran with a track record of strong performance, the hope was that Gray could lead a patchwork group. In 2023, Gray did the leading and then some. Despite Lopez pitching on Opening Day for the Twins, it was Gray who spoke up during spring training and then continued to back it up all season. Talking about the short starts that became customary for Minnesota pitchers in 2022, Gray conveyed a desire to go deeper into games and have the starting pitchers impact more games. With a better overall group, it wasn’t a surprise at all that Baldelli found himself with a group that could save a bullpen. Logging 184 innings across 32 starts, Gray blitzed by the 119 2/3 tally he posted last season. Remaining healthy for the duration of the season was certainly a big key, but the quality of performance was also substantial. Gray finished with a 2.79 ERA that was right in line with his 2.82 FIP. His 2023 ERA was the lowest total he has posted as a big leaguer since 2015, and the innings were higher than at any point since that same season. Gray’s performance allowed him to make an All-Star appearance for the first time since the 2019 season, and he was more than a deserving participant as a pitcher for Minnesota. Joined by Lopez from the rotation, the pair enjoyed a nice week of celebration in Seattle at T-Mobile Park. Over the course of his career, Gray has struck out 200 batters just one time (2019). His 183 strikeouts matched the same total from his 2014 season, and he sat down batters while keeping them from burning him with the big fly. Surrendering only eight home runs across nearly 200 innings of work is impressive, and the 0.4 HR/9 was not only a career best, but led the league as well. Considering how dominant New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole performed this season, it was going to be difficult for Gray to find himself near the top of the American League Cy Young voting. Still, he will wind up with a deserving number of votes given the totality of his production. Not only did his 5.3 fWAR lead all Twins pitchers, but it was 3rd in all of Major League Baseball, and led the American League. In the final year of a contract paying him $50.7 million over five years, Gray will be a free agent this offseason. It stands to reason that the Twins will unquestionably hand him a qualifying offer, estimated to be around $20 million for the 2024 season. Despite passing comments on retirement, this appears to be a prime opportunity for Gray to cash in on another multi-year deal, and how much he grabs from the open market has only gone up with each outing he has made for Minnesota. It’s because of the performance Gray has shown this season that both he and Lopez become no-brainer decisions to start key games in the postseason. The Twins' strength has been on the mound all year, and their pitching racking up a major league record in strikeouts is a testament to that fact. While the lineup had plenty of key producers, especially down the stretch, finding consistency in the form of Gray has been unparalleled during 2023. Join me in congratulating Sonny Gray on being named the Twins Daily Most Valuable Player for the 2023 season. Final Balloting Points Tally Sonny Gray 87 Pablo Lopez 72 Max Kepler 56 Royce Lewis 43 Ryan Jeffers 33 Edouard Julien 32 View full article

When a team gets next to no offensive production from its main superstars and still wins the division, somebody must have exceeded expectations and delivered in the clutch. Here are the 2023 winner of the Twins Daily "Most Improved Twin" award. Before we begin, a word of caution to this year’s winners. Last year's winners didn't find much success in 2023. Griffin Jax saw his advanced stats drop across the board after receiving honorable mention in 2022. Luis Arraez got traded after being mentioned. Gilberto Celestino barely made it back to the major league squad and just got designated for assignment. Nick Gordon won the honor in 2022 and then fractured his leg in Dodgers Stadium mid-May and has yet to return to the Twins. Usually you win an award such as “Most Improved” by struggling at some point, so regression might be inevitable. For now, let’s enjoy this celebration of improvement, and we’ll worry about next year…next year! 2023 Honorable Mentions Willi Castro: .257/.339/.411, .750 OPS, 8.3% BB rate, 24.2% K rate, 2.7 bWAR, 2.5 fWAR When the Twins signed Castro to a minor league deal with an invitation to spring training before the 2023 season, expectations were low. It’s not often that a Detroit Tiger castaway finds success elsewhere, and the signing was viewed as a low-risk insurance policy on spring training injuries. In April, Castro found his way into the lineup, and it didn’t go well. His .176/.300/.324 line actually looks better than it felt in real time. But as Greggory Masterson pointed out in August, the misfortune and timing of teammates’ injuries allowed Castro to remain in the big leagues and he began to find his niche in the offensive and defensive game plans for the club. Perhaps most importantly, Castro single-handedly forced the Twins to start stealing bases again. His 33 swipes paced the club (team total was only 86), and it was his relentless pursuit of taking an extra base in May that put the strategy back on the map for a reluctant coaching staff. As Hunter McCall noted in July, Castro went from castaway to part of the long-term mix due to his utility and speed. Not many infielders could make this play a reality. And not many outfielders could make this play a reality. Castro made both plays, and then some. Therefore, we have honorably mentioned him. Emilio Pagan: 69.1 IP, 2.99 ERA, 23.8% K rate, 7.7% BB rate, 1.4 bWAR, 1.1 fWAR, 0.952 WHIP In a Week 3 game in Boston, Emilio Pagan surrendered six runs to the Red Sox, raising his ERA to 7.88 over six appearances, and all but guaranteeing a raging fan base and a relegation to low-pressure relief outings for the remainder of his disappointing Twins career. As the Twins head into the playoffs, Pagan found a way into the most crucial moments of the stretch run, lowered his OPS from .776 to .553 from 2022 to 2023, and limited his opponents to five home runs over the course of the entire season, down from 12 in 2022. The turn-around was everything that Twins management had expected, Twins fans had scoffed at, and the team desperately needed in a season where key bullpen arms continued to find their way to the IL or struggled in key situations. Lou Hennessy named the “Paganaissance” in July, and Matthew Taylor offered apologies on behalf of Twins Territory for our lack of faith. If the Twins finally break their postseason curse, Pagan will be a key reason why. Ryan Jeffers: .276/.369/.490, .858 OPS, 9/9% BB rate, 27.8% K rate, 3.3 bWAR, 2.7 fWAR Ted Schwerzler pointed out at the end of July that Jeffers was starting to figure out what everyone suspected he was capable of. The “breakout” tempered somewhat in September, but Jeffers’ power did come alive as the season ended (nine of his 14 home runs were hit in August/September). He found himself pinch hitting and being thought of as an offensive threat again as the year went on. Defensively, Jeffers improved behind the plate by throwing out 25% of runners, his highest rate in four seasons. He registered positive runs above average across the major defensive advanced stat metrics, and managed to stay consistently sharp despite platooning 50/50 with Christian Vazquez all season. How that ratio changes in the postseason remains to be seen, but since the Twins are undefeated in the games Jeffers has homered in his ability to contribute to playoff success as a game changer both at and behind the plate is obvious. 2023 Most Improved Twin! Max Kepler: .260/.332/.484, .816 OPS, 9.2% BB rate, 21.6% K rate, 2.9 bWAR, 2.6 fWAR At the Eating Crow diner, the number one spot on the menu is reserved for the Kepler-burger. Hopes were high for the long-time Twin with the removal of the shift and with his health finally operating at full speed. April couldn’t have gone worse for the Twins right fielder, or so we thought, but he proved us wrong with an even worse May performance. Kepler entered June with a slash line of .195/.273/.398 (.671), and yet the Twins held fast to their desire to send him out into the outfield day in and day out. Their resolve and belief paid off, and Twins Territory happily ate their Kepler-burgers. August’s line of .314/.392/.616 (1.008) couldn’t have come at a more necessary time, and his 24 home runs and 66 RBI paced the club. Most important for the Twins playoff hopes, Kepler came through in the clutch more often than any other Twin in history. Kepler’s rise from “bench him!/trade him!/cut him!” pariah to gold glove candidate with Team MVP potential has been well documented on Twins Daily. See Matt Braun’s or Greggory Masterson’s articles to ride the rollercoaster that was Kepler’s season. So it is with great jubilation and much satisfaction that we award Max Kepler with the Twins Daily 2023 Most Improved Player Award. He was the clear choice, and this redemption story couldn’t have found a better young man to star in it. Will the Twins pick up his option for 2024 and continue the story? Kepler’s ability to keep this feel-good season rolling through the playoffs will go a long ways towards answering that question. For now, let’s just enjoy the season that was before we turn our eyes towards World Series dreams. What are your thoughts on selecting Max Kepler as the Twins Most Improved Player? How about the other candidates? Anybody that you would remove or add to the list? View full article