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chpettit19

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chpettit19 last won the day on January 31

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About chpettit19

  • Birthday 01/26/1985

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  1.    TheLeviathan reacted to a post in a topic: Line up construction and base running
  2.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  3.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  4.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  5.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  6.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  7.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Matt Wallner Has Made the Right Adjustment
  8.    Cris E reacted to a post in a topic: Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried
  9.    Cris E reacted to a post in a topic: Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried
  10.    Greglw3 reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  11.    Carnealio reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  12.    karcherd reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  13.    Mike Sixel reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  14.    DJL44 reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  15. chpettit19
    I don't expect him to have reverse splits for his career, but he absolutely murdered left-handed pitchers in the minors. Including at AAA. Like over a .900 OPS. The Twins undying obsession with platooning everyone lead to 46 PAs against lefties in 2023 and 44 PAs against them in 2024. The very definition of small samples. He got 97 last year and we saw the OPS start to rise. There's no reason to believe Matt Wallner can't hit lefties. In sample sizes over 50 PAs a season he's done incredibly well against them. He's been a victim of Twins macro-analytics.
  16.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  17.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  18.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Royals 3, Twins 1: Wallner’s Early Blast Not Enough as Twins Fall Flat in KC
  19.    Mike Sixel reacted to a post in a topic: Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried
  20.    chpettit19 reacted to a post in a topic: Can Twins Afford to Play Trevor Larnach Regularly in the Outfield?
  21.    MGX reacted to a post in a topic: Orioles 8, Twins 6: The Piggyback Doesn't Work But At Least They Tried
  22. chpettit19
    .782 within 2 runs. .708 within 1. Yeah, late and close is bad at .577. But those other 2 numbers aren't bad at all. .719 was the average OPS in baseball last year. .782 is well above average while .708 is just below. This idea that Wallner has been atrocious with runners on and is simply "not clutch" is based on people's feelings from last year. The 2 seasons before he was outstanding. It's all smallish sample size. But Matt Wallner has not been this awful black hole in the lineup with runners on base. Even in close games. Since the start of the 2023 season, Matt Wallner is 59th in baseball in wRC+ with runners in scoring position for players with at least 60 PAs in that time. There are 992 players with at least 60 PAs in that time period. He's 59th. 2 outs and RISP? 47th out of 962. High leverage? 52 out of 1060. High leverage, 2 outs, and RISP? He does crater there. Below average with a wRC+ of 80. So, he ends up in the section of the list with Yordan Alvarez (wRC+ 83), Francisco Lindor (81), Brandon Nimmo (80), Christian Yelich (79), Matt Chapman (79), and Teoscar Hernandez (73). I'm betting there aren't many fans screaming about teams needing to get rid those guys. Probably not many claiming those guys are "knee shaking terrified." That Alvarez fella has a .944 OPS in the postseason. Guess he only "appear(s) to tense up and (be) knee shaking terrified" during those regular season games, but not postseason ones?
  23. chpettit19
    The roster is very poorly built with too many DHs, but Austin Martin does not steal bases at will. He's 19 for 26. That's a 73% success rate. 80% is generally viewed as the absolute bottom for an effective base stealer. Once you get below 80%, you're actually negatively affecting your team. Austin Martin has not been a good base stealer to this point of his career. Keeping Larnach was always a risky decision. Nobody was going to take him at that contract number and once you brought Bell in you didn't have the DH spot against righties available anymore. It's awful roster building, but let's not make Martin into more than he is.
  24. chpettit19
    Interesting. They may have changed things since last time I looked. I'll see if I can dig up where I was when I checked this out a couple years ago.
  25. chpettit19
    Some, yes. https://www.milb.com/st-paul/news/broadcast-release
  26. chpettit19
    I don't remember the exact setup, but I believe there's a pretty cheap ($5-10/month) streaming package available from MLB for MiLB.tv. I don't know if that package includes every game (I have MLB.tv so mine always shows every game available) or just a portion of them each day. But my experience with MiLB.tv has been positive and don't think there should be any question about the quality of broadcast or anything if that's a route that's an option for you.
  27. chpettit19
    I'm not convinced it was Martin making that determination on his own, but he better not be looking for a cutoff man before he determines where he throws it. Infielders better be calling out where the throw goes so he knows where he's going without having to look down and read the field. I don't think Lee was there for a throw to 3rd, I think he was there for a throw home. Basallo is a terribly slow runner. There are plenty of LFers who get to that ball, get behind it, and unleash a legit throw towards the plate. Martin's first mistake was not getting behind the ball so he could make a strong throw in. It wasn't super easy to get behind, but I think he could've rounded it more than he did. I think O'Neill would've taken 2nd even if Martin tried to throw there with his momentum going towards the wall and his lack of arm strength in general. The throw decision was not at all the only problem on that play.
  28. chpettit19
    He threw the 10th most pitches in baseball between opening night and day. Only 4 guys hit 90 pitches. 1 (Hunter Brown) had 102. WAY too early to start complaining about 85 pitch starts. But I don't expect there to be a significant difference in how the pitchers are handled this year. But we'll have to wait more than 1 game to make that determination.
  29. chpettit19
    Did you watch him play any of those games or do you just have numbers? I'm aware of the numbers. I also watched him play. There are very real concerns over Houston's ability to hit enough to get to the majors. Noah Miller has never had outrageous K numbers and he's a premier fielding SS, too, but there's very real questions about him being able to hit enough to play in the majors. That .162 BABIP isn't automatically bad luck. He was not having good ABs or putting good swings on the ball. He absolutely can improve, and maybe he will from the jump this year. But he was overwhelmed by A+ pitching last year. His offense was questioned before the draft and after the draft by many scouts. And not just the power side. The hope for him at this point is probably to be Taylor Walls. Who, by the way, had a 14.8% K rate in A ball at 21. And 15.6% K rate in A+ ball. Just looking at K rate doesn't actually tell you that much. Shoot, Eduardo Tait isn't on this list because of questions with his hit tool and he had a 19% K rate at A ball as an 18-year-old.
  30. chpettit19
    Culpepper struggled, but not like Houston. Houston was atrocious. Culpepper put up an 85 wRC+ in his brief A+ stint after being drafted. Houston was a 34. And it felt worse than that in the handful of games I watched. He barely passed the "Cavaco test" for me. None of this dooms him by any means. He appears to be a hard worker and he can absolutely improve and impress in his first full season. But Culpepper and Houston's struggles were not the same. Culpepper looked like he wore down, Houston was flat out overmatched.
  31. chpettit19
    Thank you for proving our point. Teams carry those vets to play 2 games a week. The Twins sign them to start every day. Ty France was the Twins everyday 1B. He wasn't here to play twice a week and Rocco said as much in February. Harrison Bader was signed to play every day. He wasn't here to play twice a week and he said as much during the offseason. Joey Gallo wasn't signed for $11 million to play twice a week. Kody Clemens was waived by the Phillies and became an everyday starter for the Twins. The Twins are not treating these guys like contending teams treat them. That is the point. That is our complaint. The fact that you can't see the difference says all we need to know. You are the one who has a narrative they refuse to give up despite ample undeniable evidence, including the team and players themselves stating the opposite. And despite you pointing out yourself that these types of signings aren't meant to be opening day starters. You're arguing our point back to us but somehow think we're the ones who don't understand the difference between how the Twins have built their team the last handful of years vs actual contending teams. Some of the most impressive mental gymnastics I've seen around here in a while.
  32. chpettit19
    Except I was right about everything outside of him having a career year offensively. You're still trying to stick to the idea that he was brought in as a 4th outfielder. Shoot, a couple comments up you suggest Gallo was an $11 million 4th outfielder/backup 1B. I was 100% right that he was brought in as an everyday OF and fully acknowledged from the jump that his defense was top notch. He figured out his offense and made it a great signing. I have no problem admitting that or taking heat for my stance that he wouldn't be good enough to fill the everyday role he was brought in for. Wasn't the first time I was wrong and won't be the last. The difference is, even with hindsight and multiple people providing you undeniable evidence, you are continuing to be wrong about Gallo. If Bader had been signed as a 4th OFer, or France as a bench bat, I wouldn't have had any problem with either signing. I am on here all the time defending depth signings. But I will complain about every Bader and France as everyday players signing from now until I die. They are bad moves, even if some turn out surprisingly well. You're a Mets fan who liked Bader and have continued to claim he was signed as a 4th outfielder despite him saying he was signed as a starter before the season and him playing as a starter from the jump. The absolute refusal to acknowledge things even after the fact is what separates us. But, hey, you do you, my friend.
  33. chpettit19
    Matt Wallner was called up and sent down multiple times. You're just making stuff up because you have a narrative you want to stick to. Pot, meet kettle. Yes, people have things they stick to. I'm positive you are going to be bringing up Bader for years. Get off your high horse. You don't like talk about veterans being held too long? Don't come on an article about veterans being held too long and comment. Get over it.
  34. chpettit19
    Even faced with him playing over a quarter if the season in the middle of the season while he was one of the best hitters in AAA and Gallo was one of the worst in the majors and you can't just say the Twins held Gallo too long. Unreal. Maybe it's time to give up calling out other people holding onto narratives too long. Enjoy your night.
  35. chpettit19
    The false narrative is that Gallo didn't hold anyone, namely Matt Wallner, back from getting PAs after he completely fell apart at the plate. Here's the actual, verifiable facts of the 2023 season between Gallo and Wallner. From May 1 to the end of the season: Joey Gallo hit .163/.288/.374/.663 in 267 PAs with the big club Matt Wallner his .259/.374/.527/.901 in 243 PAs with the big club Yes, that's correct, Matt Wallner's OBP was as high as Gallo's slug. During that time, Matt Wallner also played 48 games in AAA. The entire month of June and half the month of July had Matt Wallner absolutely destroying AAA pitching after having put up an OPS of over 1.000 in his brief time with the Twins early in the season. Joey Gallo played 16 games with 53 PAs and an OPS of .674 in June. Also had 53 PAs in July with an OPS of .567. Again, Matt Wallner was in AAA setting the world on fire this entire time. In May, Gallo put up an OPS of .654 while Wallner was crushing AAA. It seems reasonable to have given him that month to see if he'd collect himself based on how he started the season, but June and July there was no excuse. He absolutely held Matt Wallner back. You are the one providing a false narrative. At a minimum he cost Wallner roughly 100 PAs in the majors in the heart of the season. Joey Gallo not being cut by the end of May in 2023 absolutely, positively, 100% held Matt Wallner back in AAA.
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