chpettit19

7 at 30 is an awful contract for the Twins. You'd be paying him through his age 37 season. And paying him at least 5 million more than the market is likely to bare. Twins fans would be complaining about that contract ruining their payroll (or cap) so fast. There are plenty of other ways to get the payroll up that don't include overpaying Joe Ryan on years and money. And, no, I don't think Joe Ryan is a top 10 pitcher in baseball. Top 20ish is a better argument.

Tarik Skubal may have something to say about "the top pitcher available."

For those who care, Keith Law just released his updated top 70. The Twins on the list are: 19. Jenkins 20. Lackey 31. Emma 53. Culpepper

I wouldn't put Lackey ahead of Jenkins yet, because, as you say, Jenkins is doing it in AAA already. But I have those 2 on a separate tier from everyone else. Emma is in his own world because the injuries are just so numerous it's hard to judge him at all. But, for me, it's Tier 1- Jenkins/Lackey, Tier 2- Culpepper, then everyone else.

I reject the idea that they "truly are contenders" so that plays no role in my thoughts at all. I wouldn't have had Larnach on my roster to start this year. Or Bell. I would've had Emma and Roden both on the opening day roster. I don't see them forcing him anywhere. That feels like an emotional reaction to the trade and not the reality. If they wanted to force an opportunity for him because they traded for him, he'd have been on the opening day roster. But he wasn't. And he's played recently because the starting CFer was on the IL. He's started 6 games for the Twins this year. If that's "forcing him into the lineup" I'd hate to see what he'd get normally. But the idea that "he had a month to establish himself" is really what I'm contending against. It's a month. Making a decision on him in a month is bad roster management. I'd argue they put themselves in a bad situation by trying to "compete" this year when they had no real shot at it.

Yeah, I'm not saying he's having a bad year, but the question being discussed was essentially where his career goes from here. Your argument was that he's shown he can make adjustments. I'm just saying he hasn't actually made those adjustments. I won't claim he'll be out of baseball in a couple years (top 10 picks aren't tossed aside easily), but I also don't think he's really shown anything sustainable. RISP are incredibly volatile.

I'm certainly not going to fight for the idea that Roden is some sort of key piece for the Twins future, but Trevor Larnach hit .213/.311/.415 in his age 26 season. That was his 3rd year in the bigs. Through those first 3 years he was hitting .222/.315/.385. Only real difference between Larnach's bat and Roden's is the slugging. If Roden can't slug the same .385ish that Larnach did, his career is over. But his sample size is way too small to make any final determination on yet. Again, not claiming he's any sort of vital piece, and he shouldn't be one to block Jenkins, but writing a player off after 183 PAs is a good way to lose a lot of good players. He's likely just a 4th OFer, but 4th OFers are also important. Because at some point during the season they're going to become a top 3 OFer. The Twins need to give him more runway to see if he can get settled and get his numbers up as they settle in over a larger sample size.

Just an FYI, but his chase rate has actually gotten worse. He's chasing more this year than he did last year. Difference is that he's swinging more in general and making more contact. He hasn't actually adjusted his approach in any meaningful way.

Joe Ryan is leaving the MN Twins. It's happening sometime in the next year and a half. This team isn't good enough to contend as currently constructed. Nobody other than us baseball nerds are paying attention as is. The Twins have already made him an offer. Dan Hayes reported his demands were 7 years/210 million. The Twins can already make that pitch to fans. But the casual baseball fans don't care about it anyways. Nobody has ever cared. That's one of the Twins biggest struggles is thinking that "hey, we tried really hard to spend money but the player just didn't want it" works. Nobody cares. Either you sign him or you don't. That's it. There is no try. He'll just be another cheap Pohlad no matter when Joe Ryan leaves. Trading him now when fan morale is already tanked is the best business decision he can make. It gives them the best chance to actually do what fans care about and that's build a winner. The team can't even get above .500 and you think fans are going to turn out next year because Tom didn't trade Joe until the offseason? Trading him in the offseason just makes it all the more fresh and stretches out the pain. They should've finished the sell off over the offseason and not put themselves in the situation to lose Lopez, Ryan, and Jeffers all over the next 2 seasons and give the fans more opportunity to say "cheap Pohlads." You don't get any slack for a team that's below .500 that you're not investing in. There is no casual fan who believes the Twins sitting below .500 are some "win now" team. Trading Jeffers now, Joe in the offseason, and losing Lopez at the deadline or offseason next year just stretches out the bad PR for another year and a half. There is no business upside in keeping Joe Ryan for 10 more starts that I can see. None. I see only downside. You want to start getting fans back? Get them excited for the future. No casual fan is investing in this team. But you move your vets with no future with the team and bring up the youth who you can sell as the future? That's the business move. Should've been done in the offseason, but Tom already screwed the PR situation up by making awful promises about competing this year. The move that can actually bring fans is showing them Jenkins, Culpepper, Mendez, Gonzalez, and the rest of the young guys. Trade Joe to add to the future. Holding him doesn't save any bad PR at all. It just stretches it out for a team with no chance to win and that no casual fan looks at in the standings and says "well, dang, Tom didn't let them trade Joe so now I see how hard they're trying to win even though they're a below .500 team."

I would add Tampa to this list.

Oh, I wouldn't bet on it, but it only takes 1 and he'll be asking for 7 still probably. I'd say the most likely deal is 4 years, followed by 5, then 6. AAV going down as years go up. That'd be my strategy if I were his agent, at least. And if there's a team looking to save on the AAV, he may talk them into that last year. But, no, I wouldn't bet on that and would be impressed if the agent can pull it off.

I don't know who all he'll be up against on the market, but I'd put the range from 4 to 6 years and 20 to 25 per year.

I wouldn't touch that contract for him. Would end up awful for the Twins. If those are truly the numbers he gave the Twins, they need to trade him now as he has no intention of staying here and a comp pick after another .500ish season next year would be awful asset management.

Why do you think they haven't? Joe Ryan has a mutual option for 2027. Those are essentially never picked up, but that isn't the point. The point is that Joe Ryan and the MN Twins discussed his future with the team last offseason. They had to in order to do that option in his current deal. Why would you assume they didn't also discuss 2028 and beyond? Dan Hayes has reported that the number the Twins were given is 7 years and $210 million to sign him. Sure sounds like they "showed some stones."

I don't buy this argument at all. What business reason is there for keeping him? Fan morale? Loss of ticket sales after trading him? Why is that any different than trading him in the offseason? What is the business benefit of holding Joe Ryan in a season you're already looking to set the all time low ticket sale record for Target Field and can't get or stay above .500? You're taking the business hit now, in the offseason, at next deadline, or next offseason. The business hit is coming in every scenario that doesn't include a Joe Ryan extension. What is the benefit of having that hit later vs now?