Sam Caulder

It’s not customary for the Minnesota Twins to be particularly aggressive in the free-agent reliever market. In fact, the only bullpen arm they’ve signed to a multi-year deal over the last decade was Addison Reed, and that didn’t turn out particularly well. But times are changing. Tom Pohlad has pledged to take this organization to new heights. With that in mind, perhaps it’s time for the Twins to rethink how they invest in their bullpen. If Pohlad truly wants to do things differently, it starts with putting more money into the roster. One way to do that this offseason would be to pursue free-agent left-hander Adrián Morejón. Morejón ranks eighth overall on DiamondCentric’s free-agent list and is the top-ranked reliever available this winter. He made his major-league debut with the San Diego Padres in 2019 (at just 20 years old) and has spent his entire big-league career with the organization. He isn't ninth-inning specialist, having recorded just eight saves on 19 opportunities over the last three years. However, there might not be a better setup man in baseball, and his stuff is more good enough to warrant a relief ace role. He’s finished each of the last three seasons with an ERA of 2.83 or better and a FIP of 2.79 or better. He's been remarkably effective, and a change in his pitch mix this year helped take things to another level. In previous seasons, Morejón leaned on six different pitches to keep hitters off balance. This year, he simplified things a bit, relying more heavily on his changeup alongside his sinker, slider and four-seam fastball. The results speak for themselves. His whiff and chase rates both ranked in at least the 97th percentile among major-league pitchers. He struck out more than three of every 10 batters he faced, and even when hitters managed to make contact, they weren't doing much damage. Morejón's hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity allowed all ranked in the 90th percentile or better. His ground-ball rate was elite, too. All four of his primary pitches finished with a Stuff+ grade of at least 128, and each offers something different to keep hitters guessing. He regularly touches triple digits with his sinker, and that makes his changeup particularly nasty. It generated a whiff on 56% of swings against it. When hitters did make contact with either pitch, they frequently pounded the ball into the infield grass. Morejón allowed just one home run on those two pitches all season. The movement profiles of those offerings also complement each other beautifully. His sinker generates a lot of arm-side run, while his changeup features significant late drop. That's a particularly difficult combination for hitters to handle, especially when Morejón can turn to his slider, as well. His slider doesn't quite reach the elite 3,000-RPM threshold, but it comes close at just under 2,900 RPM. It’s also his main secondary offering against left-handers. They have to account for a fastball that can run in on their hands before trying to recognize a pitch that's roughly 10 MPH slower and moves sharply in the opposite direction. With that kind of spin and the movement of his other pitches, it's another weapon that makes his arsenal so difficult to square up. Then there's his four-seam fastball. It doesn't feature exceptional movement on its own, but that's hardly a problem when you're throwing it 99 MPH with a vertical movement profile that's entirely different from the sinker. Hitters have to prepare for two high-velocity fastballs that move differently, along with a changeup that falls off the table and a slider that can finish them off. Morejón's four-seamer generated a 43% whiff rate, which is an incredible mark for a pitch that hitters generally expect to put in play more often. Morejón's stuff is disgusting. Unfortunately for Minnesota, that ensures that he won't come cheap. The two most expensive relievers in baseball are also left-handed. Josh Hader signed a five-year, $95-million contract with Houston before the 2024 season, while Tanner Scott landed a four-year, $72-million deal with the Los Angeles Dodgers before the 2025 campaign. There’s an important distinction, though. Both Hader and Scott had established themselves as closers, while Morejón wasn't the Padres' primary ninth-inning option with Mason Miller in the mix. Scott also recorded more saves with San Diego after arriving at the 2024 trade deadline than Morejón managed over the course of that entire season. Still, a pitcher with Morejón's arsenal deserves an opportunity to close games. He'll likely be paid accordingly, regardless of whether a team initially views him as a setup man or its future closer. He’ll be 28 on Opening Day 2027, putting him in a position to seek a three- to five-year contract. An average annual value around $20 million, give or take, might be what it takes to get a deal done. That's nowhere close to what the Twins have historically been willing to spend on relief pitching. But if Pohlad is serious about taking this team to new heights, he'll need to get comfortable making investments that Minnesota has traditionally avoided. The Twins entered 2026 with a bullpen that was a glaring weakness, and they're still facing plenty of uncertainty heading into the offseason. They need to increase their payroll, improve the overall quality of their relief corps and find a dependable left-handed option to balance the group. Morejón checks those boxes. He's young enough to be a long-term piece, has the stuff to handle high-leverage situations and has already demonstrated that he can produce at an elite level. Of course, there's a difference between identifying a great free-agent target and actually being willing to pay him. Morejón would represent a significant financial commitment, and there's no guarantee the Twins would be willing to compete with other teams for his services. But if Minnesota wants to build a better bullpen and prove that its approach to roster construction is changing, this is exactly the kind of opportunity Jeremy Zoll should explore. Image courtesy of Denis Poroy-Imagn Images View full article

The Twins have plenty of work to do in their bullpen this winter, and free agency offers a few intriguing options. Alex Vesia, Bryan Abreu and Kevin Ginkel could each give Minnesota a much-needed boost in different ways. View full video

Image courtesy of David Dermer - IMAGN IMAGES via Reuters Connect There are a few spots on the Twins’ roster that have some pretty large question marks heading into next season, and first base is certainly one of them. Minnesota has a few players capable of handling the position, including Kody Clemens, Royce Lewis and Victor Caratini. However, Clemens spent much of the second half of the season at second base, Caratini could be taking over as the primary catcher if Ryan Jeffers leaves in free agency, and Lewis has some performance concerns of his own. With that in mind, I think veteran first baseman Nathaniel Lowe could be an intriguing addition for the Twins this offseason. Lowe has spent time with six different teams over the course of his eight-year major league career, including four different clubs in just the last two seasons. That might raise some red flags at first glance, but there’s still plenty to like about what he brings to the table, particularly against right-handed pitching. Lowe finished the 2026 season with a .252/.317/.444 slash line and a .761 OPS, which is a respectable showing for a first baseman. He had posted an .820 OPS with the Cincinnati Reds before being moved to the Cleveland Guardians at the trade deadline, but his production took a hit following the move. Even with his struggles in Cleveland, though, his underlying numbers suggest he was a better hitter than his final batting line would indicate. His expected batting average was .268, 16 points higher than his actual mark. That strong mark placed him in the 80th percentile among major league hitters. Lowe also finished above league average in hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity, while his chase and whiff rates both ranked in the 65th percentile. It wasn’t an overly flashy season, but Lowe was a quality hitter who could provide some stability to a Twins lineup that needs it. More importantly, his splits suggest Minnesota could get the most out of his bat by using him in a platoon role. As a left-handed hitter, Lowe has consistently been much more effective against right-handed pitching than against southpaws. In 380 plate appearances against righties this season, he posted an .822 OPS. In his 49 plate appearances against left-handers, however, that figure plummeted to a putrid .297. Those numbers make it pretty clear that Lowe shouldn't be an everyday option regardless of the matchup. His defense also isn't good enough to make up for his offensive shortcomings against left-handed pitching, which is where the Twins could get creative with their roster construction. By bringing Lowe aboard as their primary first baseman, Minnesota could establish a platoon with Lewis. Lowe would handle the bulk of the starts against right-handed pitchers, while Lewis could get opportunities at first base when a lefty takes the mound. That arrangement could make sense for both players. While Lewis has struggled against right-handed pitching, posting a 77 wRC+, he was actually a productive hitter against lefties. His .738 OPS and 104 wRC+ against southpaws suggest he could be a valuable option in those matchups. Of course, that doesn't mean Lewis would be relegated to a short-side platoon role at first base for the entire season. He could still see time at second base and designated hitter, depending on how the rest of the roster comes together. However, having Lowe available would give Derek Shelton more flexibility to put his players in positions to succeed rather than forcing Lewis into an everyday role at first. It might not be the flashiest move the Twins make this offseason, but it's one that could address a legitimate weakness on the roster. First base became a significant problem for Minnesota in the second half of the season, and while Lowe isn't going to provide Gold Glove-caliber defense, his bat would be a meaningful upgrade. Just as importantly, the Twins wouldn't have to commit to an everyday role at the position. They could lean on Lowe against right-handed pitching, give Lewis favorable matchups against lefties, and use the designated hitter spot to keep both bats involved when it makes sense. There could also be a financial incentive to pursue Lowe. With a salary floor likely on the horizon, Minnesota will need to increase its payroll, and adding an established major league hitter would be one way to do that without necessarily making a major long-term commitment. The Twins have plenty of areas to address this winter, and first base might not be the most pressing need on the roster. Still, Lowe could offer a relatively straightforward solution to a position that lacked consistent production down the stretch. If Minnesota is looking for an affordable veteran who can improve the lineup while giving Shelton more matchup flexibility, he's certainly a name worth considering. View full article

Image courtesy of Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season knowing their bullpen would be a weakness, and the front office did little to address that problem after last year's trade deadline fire sale. They felt the effects of that decision throughout the season, leaving another offseason with plenty of work to do. While the bullpen is in a better place than it was a year ago, there are still some significant holes to fill. Tom Pohlad and the front office have another opportunity to address those needs this winter. If the Twins want to compete in 2027, adding some reliable late-inning arms should be near the top of their offseason checklist. With that in mind, here are three relief pitchers the Twins should target in free agency. LHP Alex Vesia Vesia will probably be the most expensive option on this list, but with Taylor Rogers and A.J. Minter both set to become free agents, the Twins could use another reliable left-handed option in the bullpen. He’s established himself as a dependable reliever with the Los Angeles Dodgers, and his 2026 numbers suggest he could be a significant addition to Minnesota's relief corps. He finished the season with a 2.64 ERA and 74 strikeouts over 58 innings. Those are impressive numbers on their own, but the underlying data makes his performance even more appealing. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate ranked in the 95th percentile or better, while his hard-hit rate, barrel rate and average exit velocity were all within the top quarter of the league. Vesia consistently missed bats while limiting the quality of contact when hitters did put the ball in play. One of the more interesting aspects of Vesia's arsenal is his delivery. He throws almost straight over the top, with a 69° arm angle that helps his four-seam fastball generate a lot of run up in the strike zone. That fastball also helps his secondary pitches play up. Neither his slider nor his changeup has an especially impressive movement profile, but both pitches generate plenty of whiffs because hitters have to respect the fastball. Vesia figures to be one of the better relief pitchers available this winter, and his price tag will likely reflect that. The Twins have other needs to address, but if they're willing to spend on the bullpen, he would be a significant upgrade. RHP Bryan Abreu The Twins almost acquired Abreu at the trade deadline. Minnesota and the Houston Astros reportedly had a deal in place that would have sent Trevor Larnach to Houston in exchange for Abreu. The trade ultimately fell through, but perhaps his destiny was always to wind up in Minnesota. He had a somewhat disappointing 2026 campaign by his standards, finishing with a 3.73 ERA after averaging a 2.27 mark over the previous four seasons. However, there's still plenty to like about his underlying numbers, and one down year shouldn't erase what he's accomplished throughout his career. Both his whiff rate and strikeout rate ranked in the 91st percentile or higher, while all three of his pitches generate sharp vertical movement. His stuff remains good enough to miss bats at an elite rate, which is exactly what the Twins need from someone who could handle high-leverage situations. The biggest concern, with both Abreu and Vesia, is command. Abreu finished the season with a walk rate north of 15%, while Vesia also walked more than 13% of the hitters he faced. That's a problem for a Twins bullpen that already has too many relievers who struggle to consistently throw strikes. Still, Abreu's walk rate was comfortably the worst of his career, so there's reason to believe he can improve in that area. His track record gives the Twins a legitimate reason to expect a bounce-back season in 2027 and beyond. Coming off a down year, he could also be more affordable than he would’ve been after another dominant season. He comes with some risk, but the upside is difficult to ignore. If the Twins want an established late-inning arm without paying the absolute top of the market, he would be an intriguing target. RHP Kevin Ginkel Ginkel has spent his entire major league career with the Arizona Diamondbacks, and his results over the past couple of seasons probably don't inspire much confidence at first glance. He finished with a 7.36 ERA in 2025 before posting a 4.12 mark this year. However, there's more to his recent performance than those numbers suggest. He dealt with recurring shoulder issues in 2025 that limited him to just 25 2/3 innings. Despite his struggles, he finished with a 3.64 FIP, suggesting he pitched considerably better than his ERA indicated. The underlying numbers were encouraging again in 2026. Ginkel ranked in the 77th percentile or better in both strikeout rate and whiff rate, while his chase rate landed in the 94th percentile. He continued to generate swings and misses, and hitters had a difficult time laying off pitches outside the strike zone. Unlike Vesia and Abreu, Ginkel also did a much better job limiting walks. He's finished with a walk rate of 6.2% or better in each of his last two healthy seasons, which would be a welcome addition to a bullpen that needs more reliable command. Ginkel is essentially a two-pitch pitcher, relying primarily on his slider and four-seam fastball. He doesn’t have as deep an arsenal as some other options on the market, but his stuff has been effective enough to make the combination work. Given his inconsistent results over the past two seasons, the Twins probably wouldn't need to pay top dollar to bring him aboard. There's some risk involved, especially considering his fairly recent shoulder problems, but his underlying numbers suggest there's still something worth pursuing. Vesia offers the most reliable production, Abreu brings high-end strikeout stuff, and Ginkel could be a more affordable option with the potential to outperform his recent results. If the Twins can land the right combination of those profiles, their bullpen could look considerably different in 2027. View full article

Image courtesy of Kelley L Cox-Imagn Images The Twins decided to be aggressive at the trade deadline, and while they ultimately fell short of their postseason goal, they were still able to add a few controllable arms in the process. One of those arms was Jeff Hoffman's. Hoffman was the most expensive reliever Minnesota acquired, but he also looked pretty darn good during his brief stint with the Twins. Across 18 innings, he posted a 2.50 ERA and 2.43 FIP, allowing just nine hits while striking out 27 batters. He also walked 12, and command has been an area he’s struggled with in the past. Still, there are very few pitchers in baseball with better pure stuff than Hoffman, and while he can be streaky, he should get the first crack at the primary closer role for Minnesota in 2027. His underlying numbers make a pretty compelling case for that role. His strikeout, whiff and chase rates all finished in the 98th percentile or better among MLB pitchers. That's the type of profile you'd expect from a premier closer, and his pitch mix gives him multiple ways to get hitters out. His slider is particularly nasty, generating whiffs on more than 50% of swings last season. That’s elite for any pitch, let alone one that’s making up just under half of his usage. Pretty nuts. The four-seam fastball is another legitimate weapon, featuring an incredible movement profile with more than 16 inches of rise and nearly 14 inches of tail. It also finished with a Stuff+ grade of 115, which was better than Joe Ryan's four-seam fastball–which has been widely regarded as one of the better four-seamers in the league. He also has a splitter with a strong movement profile, giving him a legitimate three-pitch mix that can keep hitters off balance. When Hoffman is locating all three pitches, there's a lot to like about his arsenal. That hasn’t always come easy for him, however. Command has been a concern throughout Hoffman's 11-year MLB career, and his time with the Twins was no exception. His walk rate jumped to 15.6% in Minnesota, which is far too high for any pitcher expected to handle consistent high-leverage opportunities. For context, Hoffman's career walk rate sits right around 10%. That's a much more manageable number, especially when paired with the strikeout ability he's displayed throughout his career. If he can maintain a strikeout rate north of 30%, a walk rate around 10% is something the Twins can live with. Approaching a 16% walk rate, though, is a different story. Hoffman isn't the only member of Minnesota's bullpen who struggled to consistently find the strike zone this season, though. Yoendrys Gómez finished the year with a walk rate north of 13%, which was higher than Hoffman's season-long mark of 10.3%. Andrew Morris was better in that department, posting an 8.4% walk rate, but he didn't have the same overall success as Hoffman. That doesn't mean the Twins should ignore the command concerns. If anything, they highlight why Minnesota needs to improve their bullpen depth this offseason. But Hoffman has the type of stuff that can make those occasional walks easier to overcome, provided he can get back closer to his career norms. It's also possible the Twins learn from their mistakes this past offseason and increase their payroll by adding more established late-inning arms. There should be several quality options available, and assuming a salary floor is implemented, the bullpen would be an easy place for Minnesota to spend money while addressing one of its biggest roster needs. I certainly expect the Twins to add relief options this winter, and hopefully, one or two of those additions will be capable of challenging for the ninth-inning role. Minnesota is (potentially) a playoff team with a better bullpen this year, and relying on the same group of arms without adding meaningful competition would be a questionable approach. However, there are already financial considerations that make Hoffman an appealing option. The Twins owe him north of $7 million of his $11 million contract next season, which is already lower-end closer. Maybe Minnesota surprises everyone and spends lucratively on one or two additional bullpen arms. There are certainly situations where that investment would make sense, particularly if the Twins want to turn their late-inning group into a genuine strength. But based on what we've seen from this front office and ownership, I'm not expecting them to make that kind of commitment. More likely, the Twins will look for a few affordable additions who can provide depth and compete for high-leverage opportunities. That approach would leave Hoffman in a pretty good position heading into 2027. Barring the emergence of a young arm or the addition of a true, premier closer, I doubt Minnesota will have one pitcher who receives every save opportunity. Having multiple options for the ninth inning would be a good thing, especially given Hoffman's occasional command issues. Still, there's a difference between having a primary closer and giving someone every save opportunity. Hoffman has the track record, underlying numbers and raw stuff to earn the first crack at the job, even if the Twins want to keep other options available. His brief stint in Minnesota showed what he can bring to the bullpen when he's at his best. If he can get his walk rate back under control, there's plenty of reason to believe he can be a reliable late-inning option. The Twins have plenty of work to do before their bullpen is where it needs to be, but Hoffman is a good starting point. Minnesota should continue adding arms this offseason, yet unless one of those additions clearly separates himself from the pack, Hoffman should enter spring training as the favorite to close games in 2027. View full article

A disappointing season and a crowded group of young position players have put Gabriel Gonzalez at a crossroads, and the Twins may be better off turning the former top prospect into a piece that can help them win now. View full video

Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Postseason baseball is in full swing, and the Twins are not a participant. That means it’s time to shift the focus to this offseason and beyond, and the Twins will have some important decisions to make this winter. One of those decisions is what to do — or what not to do — with catcher Ryan Jeffers. Jeffers had a career year offensively in 2026, slashing .256/.353/.461 for an impressive .814 OPS. After a few seasons of inconsistent production at the plate, he finally put everything together offensively and established himself as one of the more productive catchers in the league. And while he’s not known for his elite blocking and receiving, or his ability to gun down runners trying to steal a base, the Twins had the most successful ABS challenges of any team this year. A lot of that is because of Jeffers. He’s developed into one of the better catchers in the league, but there’s one pretty significant problem: He’s no longer under contract. Which brings us to the question of whether the Twins should make an attempt at bringing him back. The general consensus around this situation is that Jeffers is probably gone this winter, and I don’t disagree that that’s the likeliest outcome. But if I’m the Twins, I’m doing what I can to bring him back for next year, and potentially even longer than that. With league-wide spending likely looking radically different next season due to the negotiations around the new Collective Bargaining Agreement, the Twins will be one of the many teams that need to increase their budget. In the MLB owners’ initial proposal back in July, there was a proposed salary cap and salary floor, with the salary floor set at $171.2 million. For context, the Twins’ payroll in 2026 was around $115 million. They’re going to have to spend some money anyway, and I think there’s a strong case to be made for Jeffers to get some of that money. If Jeffers is out the door, Minnesota’s starting catcher for next year would likely be Victor Caratini. He posted a .627 OPS this year. His glove behind the dish is much better than his bat, but a low-.600s OPS hitter just isn’t startable, even at catcher, which isn’t exactly known for being a strong offensive position. Unless the Twins want Caratini starting 100 games next year, they’re going to need someone else until someone like Vahn Lackey or Eduardo Tait is ready for the majors. I’d argue spending more to bring Jeffers back makes more sense than signing or trading for someone else. He’s already familiar with the pitching staff, and has proven he can provide legitimate offensive production at a position where that’s especially valuable. The first and biggest decision the Twins will have to make is whether to offer Jeffers the qualifying offer. The qualifying offer is expected to be worth roughly $24 million this offseason, which is a heck of a lot of money for a catcher. According to Dan Hayes of The Athletic, Jeffers would be unlikely to accept it. But if the Twins offer it to him and he signs elsewhere this winter, they’d receive a draft pick following the first round. The problem might be what happens if Jeffers actually accepts. The Twins’ baseline payroll is expected to be around $110 million for next season, so a $24 million qualifying offer would immediately push that number upward of $130 million. That would leave a pretty significant chunk of the Twins’ payroll already spoken for, and just how can we expect the Pohlads to increase the payroll? It’s easy to say they should bring him back after the season he just had, but $24 million for one year is a massive commitment for a team with a limited budget. There’s a very real possibility the Twins decide that number is simply too high and let Jeffers walk rather than risk having that much money tied up in one player for one season. The other option is a multi-year deal. This would obviously be tougher to pull off, since Jeffers is coming off a career year and the catcher market continues to evolve. Caratini just signed a two-year, $14 million deal this past offseason, and Jeffers would certainly be worth a lot more than that after his 2026 season. Across the league, the top four catcher contracts in terms of annual average value are Cal Raleigh at $17.5 million, J.T. Realmuto at $15 million, Will Smith at $14 million and Salvador Perez at $12.5 million. However, not all of those contracts are the same. Realmuto and Perez are older catchers on shorter deals, whereas Raleigh and Smith are on longer-term deals, and both are around the same age as Jeffers. Given his production this year, Jeffers is going to be looking for as big of a contract as he can get. He’s 29 years old, coming off the best offensive season of his career and entering free agency as easily the best catcher available. And with Scott Boras representing him, I don’t think the Twins should expect to get him on a short two- or three-year deal at a discount. A four-year, $60 million contract would probably be closer to the floor than the ceiling, and something in the neighborhood of $80 million might be more realistic. I’d still be interested in bringing Jeffers back, but committing at least $60 million to him over four (or more) years is a much bigger decision than simply giving him the qualifying offer. Especially when the Twins have Lackey and Tait in the organization and presumably hope one or both of them can eventually take over behind the plate. That doesn’t mean a long-term deal wouldn’t make sense. Jeffers has proven he can be a productive offensive catcher, and having him around for the next few years would give the Twins a legitimate answer at a position that has been somewhat difficult to figure out. But they’d have to be comfortable committing a significant amount of money to him while also knowing that their top catching prospects could eventually make that contract more difficult to justify. Minnesota will have to decide on the qualifying offer for Jeffers within five days of the World Series ending, so we’ll have a lot more information then. It would obviously be great to have someone like Jeffers behind the plate, but the business side of things might make that a lot tougher for the Twins. View full article