Sam Caulder

The last handful of starts for Simeon Woods Richardson have described a troubling trend. At this point, it’s fair to wonder not just how long he remains in the rotation, but whether that role still makes sense at all. Were it not for the injuries that continue to deplete the team's starting staff, Woods Richardson might be in the bullpen already. When the Twins acquired Woods Richardson alongside Austin Martin at the 2021 trade deadline in exchange for José Berríos, the vision was clear. He was supposed to develop into a reliable starting pitcher—someone who could anchor the back end of a rotation, with upside. For a stretch, that looked plausible. He showed flashes of being a capable fourth or fifth starter, eating innings and keeping his team in games. Though 2024 ended in disappointment, Woods Richardson kept them afloat for a long stretch during which the team was badly diminished by injuries. Alas, 2026 has been a different story entirely. Through his first seven starts, Woods Richardson owns a 6.49 ERA and a 1.74 WHIP. He’s allowed 47 hits and 14 walks, while striking out just 17 batters. He’s not pitching deep into games, and the innings he does provide have often come with significant damage. The underlying numbers don’t offer much encouragement, either. His strikeout rate sits at a highly concerning 10.6%, one of the lowest marks you’ll find for a starting pitcher. He’s generating very few whiffs, and when hitters do make contact, they’re squaring him up with authority. His arsenal, which already is limited for a starter, simply isn’t playing. The advanced metrics paint a bleak picture across the board. Put simply, what the Twins are doing right now with Woods Richardson is not working. At some point, acknowledging that opens the door to a different solution. A move to the bullpen stands out as the most logical next step. There are clear indicators that Woods Richardson could thrive in a shorter-burst role. Most notably, his effectiveness the first time through the order has been excellent. His ERA sits at 1.20 when hitters haven’t already seen him, and he’s recorded 11 of his 17 strikeouts in those matchups. That version of Woods Richardson looks like a completely different pitcher. The drop-off after that is dramatic. The second time through the order, his ERA balloons to 14.66. Over 11 2/3 innings in those situations, he’s struck out just two batters, while allowing a .375 batting average and six home runs. It’s not a subtle decline; it’s a cliff. That split tells a pretty clear story. For two to three innings, Woods Richardson can be effective. After that, hitters adjust, his stuff flattens out, and the results spiral. A profile like that is far more aligned with a reliever than a starter. He doesn't lose a ton of velocity or movement as the game progresses, but hitters quickly get familiar with the relatively limited set of sequences and shapes he can throw at them. There’s also a compelling velocity component to consider. Woods Richardson’s fastball typically sits in the 92 to 93 mph range, which isn’t overpowering in today’s game, especially for a starter expected to turn a lineup over multiple times. As he works deeper into outings, that velocity can dip, leaving him even more vulnerable. In shorter stints, though, there’s reason to believe that changes. We’ve seen him reach back for 96 to 97 mph at times, with flashes of a different gear that simply isn’t sustainable over five or six innings. In a bullpen role, that higher velocity could become more consistent. A tick or two of added velocity, paired with a simplified approach, could make his entire arsenal play up. The timing of a potential move is complicated, but not prohibitive. With Mick Abel currently on the injured list, the Twins don’t have an abundance of rotation options, which makes it harder to pull Woods Richardson out immediately. Joe Ryan is likely to land on the shelf, too, after leaving Sunday's start with elbow soreness. Still, Abel has already resumed throwing bullpens and may not be far off from a return. When that happens, the Twins will have a decision to make. Connor Prielipp’s emergence adds another layer to the conversation. He’s looked sharp over his first three starts and offers something the current rotation lacks: a left-handed presence. Slotting him into the rotation not only injects upside but also creates better balance within the staff. Moving Woods Richardson to a relief role wouldn’t just be about addressing his struggles; it would also allow the organization to reconfigure its pitching staff in a way that maximizes everyone’s strengths. The Twins’ bullpen has not exactly been sharp. We just saw that group completely unravel with an eight-run eighth inning collapse on Saturday, and while one inning doesn’t define an entire unit, it does highlight how volatile things have been. This isn’t a bullpen that’s been consistently locking games down, and adding another arm that’s been promising in shorter bursts could really help stabilize things. None of this is to suggest that the Twins should give up on him. He’s still relatively young, and there’s enough of a track record to believe he can contribute at the major-league level. But continuing to run him out as a starter, hoping for different results, isn’t a particularly convincing strategy. Without Ryan, the decision is put off for a while. None of the available alternatives to Woods Richardson have done enough to give the team any reasonable measure of confidence in them, so they still need Woods Richardson as a starter. At some point, though, adjustments to the role and expectations aren’t just helpful; they’re necessary. For Woods Richardson, that adjustment may very well be the key to getting his career back on track.

Box Score SP: Bailey Ober - 6 IP, 4 H, 1 R, 2 BB, 2 K (88 pitches, 56 strikes (64% strikes)) Home Runs: Ryan Jeffers (4), Byron Buxton (8) Top 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (0.19), Byron Buxton (0.16), Ryan Jeffers (0.16) Win Probability Chart The Twins came into the series opener against Toronto looking to stop the bleeding, after a pair of frustrating late losses to the Seattle Mariners. Behind a sharp start from Bailey Ober and a timely offensive breakout, they did exactly that. This wasn’t a game defined by chaos or a late collapse. Instead, the Twins steadily took control, turning a tight battle into a comfortable 7-1 win. They got contributions up and down the lineup, capitalized on mistakes, and rode strong pitching to get back in the win column. BAILEY OBER SETS THE TONE Ober didn’t overpower hitters, but he didn’t need to. From the start, he was in control. Despite allowing a leadoff single in the first, he worked efficiently, needing just 18 pitches to navigate five hitters. That became a theme. He pounded the zone early and often, throwing first-pitch strikes to 75% of the batters he faced, and kept Toronto off balance all night. Through three innings, he was sitting at just 42 pitches with seven whiffs, even with his fastball hovering below 88 MPH. It wasn’t about velocity; it was about command and sequencing. The only real damage came in the fourth, when Daulton Varsho turned on a fastball up and in and sent it over the right-field seats for a solo homer. Outside of that, Ober was in complete control. He cruised through six strong innings, marking his third straight quality start and his fourth consecutive outing of six or more innings. He exited in the seventh after allowing a leadoff bloop single, but by then, his job was more than done. MISSED CHANCES, THEN A BREAKTHROUGH Early on, it looked like it might be another frustrating night offensively. The Twins put immediate pressure on Kevin Gausman in the first, getting a leadoff double from Byron Buxton, but they couldn’t bring him home. It set the tone for the early innings, when opportunities were there, but the big hit was not. For three innings, Gausman largely kept them quiet despite some loud contact, including a deep flyout from Josh Bell that likely leaves the yard on a warmer night. The fourth inning changed everything. After Trevor Larnach worked a leadoff walk, Ryan Jeffers stepped in and worked an eight-pitch at-bat. It ended on a fastball over the heart of the plate, and Jeffers launched it into the bullpen in left-center for a two-run homer, flipping a 1-0 deficit into a 2-1 lead. It was the swing they had been missing early, and it shifted the momentum for good. ADDING ON AND PULLING AWAY Once the Twins grabbed the lead, they didn’t let up. In the sixth, Buxton provided another spark. Twins legend Justin Morneau noted on the TV broadcast how well Buxton was hitting when he saw the other team’s starting pitcher for a third time. About three seconds later, Buxton homered. He turned on an inside fastball and sent it out for his team-leading eighth homer of the season. From there, the lineup kept grinding. Larnach drew his second walk of the game and moved into scoring position, setting the stage for Austin Martin, who lined a ball into center to drive in another run and chase Gausman from the game. It marked the first time all season Gausman had allowed more than three runs in a start. But the biggest inning came late. In the eighth, the Twins took full advantage of defensive miscues from Toronto. After Buxton’s third hit of the night, a misplayed Jeffers pop-up and an errant throw allowed him to reach third, and Bell followed by ripping a ball off the wall to bring him home. Moments later, another throwing error allowed Jeffers to score, making it 6-1. Luke Keaschall drove in their seventh run on a sac fly, and the Twins pushed the game out of reach, turning a competitive matchup into a 7-1 advantage. BULLPEN SLAMS THE DOOR With Ober handing things off in the seventh, the bullpen took care of the rest. Anthony Banda navigated a quick matchup against lefties before turning things over to Andrew Morris, who continued to impress. Morris worked efficiently through the end of the seventh and the eighth, allowing minimal traffic and keeping Toronto from mounting any kind of response. In the ninth, Justin Topa came on to close it out. Nothing came of a leadoff walk; a game-ending double play capped off the night. Clean, efficient, and exactly what the Twins needed. After a couple of tough losses, this was a much-needed win. Strong starting pitching, timely hitting, and capitalizing on mistakes; it was a complete performance that got them back on track. What’s Next? The Twins and Blue Jays are back in action tomorrow night for game two of the series. Simeon Woods Richardson is on the hill for Minnesota, taking on his former team, and lefty Patrick Corbin will throw for Toronto. We saw this same pitching matchup in these teams’ first series in mid-April, with Toronto winning that one 10-4. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM CT. Postgame Interviews Coming Soon! Bullpen Usage Chart SUN MON TUES WED THUR TOT Rogers 0 14 0 13 0 27 Morris 0 40 0 0 19 59 Banda 9 0 0 22 14 45 Funderburk 20 0 15 0 0 35 Garcia 0 0 23 0 0 23 Sands 7 0 13 0 0 20 Topa 10 0 0 0 12 22 Orze 0 0 0 28 0 28

The Minnesota Twins have a very solid catching situation for 2026, but that stability doesn’t extend beyond this season. While this might not be a universally popular stance, there’s a strong case to be made that the Twins should look to extend Ryan Jeffers. To be clear, this isn’t about handing out a massive long-term deal that could age poorly. A huge seven-year, $100 million type of contract would be quite excessive, and that’s not the type of commitment being suggested here. But Jeffers is set to hit free agency after the season, and he’s exactly the kind of player this organization should be looking to keep around on a shorter-term deal. Offensively, Jeffers has quietly been one of the more productive catchers in baseball, especially when viewed through the lens of positional expectations. He owns a career .747 OPS, which gives him an OPS+ comfortably above league average. That kind of production from behind the plate carries real value. It’s still early in the 2026 season, but Jeffers looks like a hitter who has taken another step forward. Through 92 plate appearances entering Thursday night, he’s hitting .293 with a .418 on-base percentage, along with three home runs. Just as importantly, he’s struck out 16 times while drawing 15 walks, a near one-to-one ratio that speaks to a much more disciplined approach. The underlying data supports what’s showing up in the box score. Jeffers’s average exit velocity has climbed above 91 miles per hour, second among all Twins hitters. He’s not expanding the strike zone, there’s very little swing-and-miss in his profile right now, and he’s consistently putting himself in favorable counts. This isn’t coming out of nowhere, either. Over the past couple of seasons, there’s been a noticeable shift in Jeffers’s approach at the plate. He’s become far more selective. His bat-to-ball improvements are real, and they’ve elevated his overall offensive floor while also raising the ceiling. Defensively, Jeffers isn’t going to stand out in the traditional ways. He’s not an elite blocker, and he doesn’t rank among the top catchers in terms of throwing out base stealers. But the modern game has introduced new ways for catchers to provide value, and this is where Jeffers separates himself. With the implementation of the ABS challenge system, Jeffers has been one of the most effective catchers in baseball. He leads the league in strikeouts gained via successful challenges, with 10, and among catchers with at least 20 challenges, he ranks inside the top 10 in both total successful challenges and overall success rate. That might seem like a niche skill, but it matters. In a league where every marginal edge can swing an at-bat or an inning, consistently winning challenges adds tangible value. Jeffers has shown an ability to read pitches, understand umpire tendencies within the system, and make the right call in high-leverage spots. That’s a modern defensive skill that isn’t going away, and it gives him an added layer of importance behind the plate. Then there’s the bigger picture. Jeffers’s contract expires after this season, while Victor Caratini is only under team control for one more year beyond that, with a mutual option for 2028 that (historically speaking) is unlikely to be exercised by both sides. Beyond those two, the organization’s long-term hope lies with Eduardo Tait, one of the top catching prospects in the game, along with intriguing depth pieces like Khadim Diaw and Enrique Jimenez. Tait, in particular, has the upside to become the catcher of the future. But he’s probably still at least two or three years away from making a real impact at the major-league level. That creates a clear gap between the present and the future, and Jeffers is the most logical bridge. If the Twins let him walk, what does that leave them with? Caratini for 2027, and then a likely trip to free agency to find another catcher, anyway. At that point, you’re probably paying a similar price for a player who wouldn’t be as productive, and certainly won’t have the same level of familiarity with the pitching staff or the organization. Jeffers offers stability in a spot where stability is hard to find. He’s a known commodity offensively; he’s developed into a reliable presence behind the plate in ways that align with the modern game; and he already has established relationships with the Twins’ pitchers. For a team that could be trending younger in the near future, that kind of presence carries weight beyond the stat sheet. That’s why a short-term extension makes so much sense. Something in the range of three years would allow the Twins to maintain continuity at catcher while giving Tait the time he needs to develop properly. It avoids a long-term commitment that could become problematic, while still addressing a clear organizational need. As long as the financial aspect stays reasonable, extending Ryan Jeffers feels like the kind of move that checks every box. It strengthens the present, protects against uncertainty in the near future, and buys time for the next wave of talent to arrive. For a team trying to balance competitiveness with sustainability, that’s a path worth taking. Of course, Jeffers hss agency here, too. He's unlikely to take a three-year deal right now, not only because he's a Scott Boras client (that can be overcome, in certain cases) but because he's playing so well in the last year before he could reach the market. This winter is likely to be marred by a lockout, but last time that happened, some players signed early deals that have gone well for them (if somewhat less so for the teams involved). A version of the deal signed by Sean Murphy after he was traded from the Athletics to Atlanta, though, might work. Murphy officially signed for $73 million over six years, but he was further from free agency at the time. If the Twins are willing to guarantee Jeffers $57 million over four years (a $14-million annual salary, plus a $1-million buyout) with a club option for 2031, they could keep him from entering free agency this fall. They should, at a minimum, consider it.

Coming into the season, the outlook for the Twins’ bullpen felt fairly clear. There were interesting arms and a handful of intriguing profiles, but not much certainty. Through the first few weeks, that hasn’t really changed. As a whole, this unit hasn’t been very strong, and the biggest issue has been inconsistency. It’s been difficult to know what you’re going to get from one night to the next. Even the hurlers who have flashed the ability to cruise through a tough patch in the opposing lineup seem to struggle when asked to do it two or three times in a short span. There have been a few bright spots, along with some real concerns. With that in mind, here’s where my confidence currently sits, working from lowest to highest. Zero Faith: Anthony Banda Coming into the year, Banda felt like someone who could carve out a legitimate late-inning, high-leverage role. That hasn’t come close to materializing. Through 10 2/3 innings, he’s sitting on a 9.28 ERA, allowing 13 hits, three walks, and hitting three batters. It’s not just the results, either; it’s the lack of any real rhythm. We haven’t seen him string together multiple solid outings, and in a 12-appearance sample, that becomes hard to ignore. Opponents are hitting .302 against him, the highest mark in the bullpen (among regular contributors), and there just isn’t much here right now that inspires confidence. Familiar, but Not Fun: Justin Topa It’s not exactly reassuring that the two relievers I trust the least are also among the most frequently used. Topa’s surface-level numbers don’t jump out in the same way. A 3.86 ERA is perfectly passable. But once you dig a little deeper, it becomes harder to buy in. A 1.54 WHIP paired with a 13.7% strikeout rate suggests that ERA is a bit lucky. He does a nice job generating ground balls and limiting loud contact, but the consistency hasn’t been there, which again feels like a recurring theme with this group. He’s the type of arm that can get through an inning cleanly one night, and then spend the next outing working out of constant traffic. That volatility makes him difficult to fully trust; he'd be a better fit for a team with a better defense. Next up, I’ve got a tie, and fittingly, it’s between two left-handed options. Sortable Southpaws: Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk Neither has done much to distinguish themselves, in a positive way. Both are carrying WHIPs north of 1.50. Neither generates much swing-and-miss, and both have run into issues with walks. On the surface, Funderburk’s 2.00 ERA looks far more appealing than Rogers’s 7.27, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Funderburk’s 5.80 FIP and 6.47 xERA suggest he’s been living on the edge, and that some regression could be coming. In reality, both pitchers have fallen into that same inconsistency trap. There just hasn’t been a reliable rhythm, and at this point, it’s hard to feel overly confident in either left-handed option when the game is on the line. The Hard-Throwing Youngster: Andrew Morris Morris has been deployed as more of a length reliever, typically working in two- to three-inning stints. That role matters here, because if we were strictly evaluating him as a one-inning arm, he’d probably land higher on this list. The issue is what happens after that first inning. We’ve seen him run into more trouble the deeper he goes into outings, which has inflated his numbers, including a 7.71 ERA that doesn’t exactly scream reliability. But context is important. Half of the earned runs he’s allowed came on one swing, a bases-clearing double by TJ Friedl in a spot where Morris arguably shouldn’t have been in the game. Another two runs came on Bo Bichette’s game-winning double after Morris had already exited, with those runners inherited and ultimately allowed to score. When you look beyond the ERA, there’s actually a lot to like. His stuff has arguably been the best of anyone in this bullpen. He’s generating a ton of chase out of the zone, limiting hard contact, and attacking hitters with confidence, reflected in a strong 5.9% walk rate. If the Twins can keep him in more controlled two-inning bursts (or even shift him to a traditional one-inning role), there’s a good chance the results start to match the underlying performance. That brings us into the top three. The Journeyman: Garrett Acton Yes, there’s definitely some small sample influence here. Acton has only thrown 6 ⅔ innings, but it’s been an impressive stretch. He’s running a 2.70 ERA with a 2.54 xERA, and the underlying metrics are hard to ignore. A 34% whiff rate and 30.4% strikeout rate jump off the page, and he’s done an excellent job limiting hard contact. The stuff is playing well. The only reason he isn’t higher is the limited sample. If these numbers were stretched over 30 or 40 innings, we’d be having a very different conversation—one where he’s probably sitting at the top of this list, if only because of the uninspiring competition for that honor. Why Aren't You Better? Cole Sands In a bullpen like this, that placement says quite a bit. It’s not about overpowering stuff or eye-popping velocity. It’s much simpler than that; he’s steady. He’s predictable in the best way possible. Sands owns a 3.48 ERA, which is right in line with what we’ve come to expect from him, and there’s real value in that kind of consistency, especially in a group that hasn’t had much of it. He was probably my preseason pick as the most trustworthy reliever in this bullpen, and while the start hasn’t been dominant, there’s little reason to move off that stance. When he enters a game, there’s a level of calm that just doesn’t exist with most of the other options. However, two years ago, we got an extended look at a version of Sands who could dominate. Since the start of last year, that guy has shown up only in brief glimpses. Somehow, a Relief Ace: Eric Orze If the Twins needed to name a primary closer tomorrow, Orze would get my vote without much hesitation. He’s leaned heavily on his splitter, and it’s been a legitimate weapon, generating whiffs on over 30% of swings. Even when hitters make contact, they’re not doing much damage. His average exit velocity allowed, along with his hard-hit and barrel rates, all sit in the 83rd percentile or better among major-league pitchers. He’s missing bats at an above-average rate, generating strikeouts, and while the command isn’t perfect, it’s more than manageable, with a 9.3% walk rate. (Keep in mind that, with ABS having shrunk the strike zone, the league's overall walk rate is 9.7% so far this season.) The underlying metrics back it all up, with both Orze's FIP and xERA sitting at an elite 2.38. The results have been good, and the data suggest they could be even better moving forward. Yes, he’s blown a save, which does not help my case. But he’s also the only reliever in this bullpen to have multiple save opportunities, which says a lot about how he’s already being trusted. In a bullpen searching for stability, Orze has provided it. Right now, he stands alone as the arm I trust the most.