Sam Caulder

The Twins are going to have a decision looming behind the plate that might be more important than it looks on the surface. So far this season, Ryan Jeffers is putting together a strong case for why he should be part of the team’s future. View full video

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images The Minnesota Twins entered spring training with a handful of rotation questions, and Zebby Matthews looked like one of the more straightforward answers. Even with some competition, injuries to Pablo López and David Festa seemed to clear a path for him to break camp in the big-league rotation. Instead, a rough spring changed the equation. Matthews was ultimately optioned to Triple-A, and the expectation at that point felt pretty simple: go to St. Paul, get right, and force the issue again. So far, that hasn’t happened, either. Through his first three starts with the St. Paul Saints, the overall line isn’t pretty. Matthews has thrown 12 1/3 innings, allowing 12 earned runs on 21 hits, including five home runs. He’s also walked four and struck out just 10. Those 21 hits jump off the page, and they’re not coming from a lack of control. Hitters are earning their way on base by putting the ball in play. A big reason for that becomes clear when you look at the swing-and-miss numbers; he’s just not missing bats right now. His swinging strike rate is sitting at just 11% thus far. That’s not a terrible number on its own, but after being in the 13-14% range over the last couple of years, it’s a noticeable decline. He’s also sporting just a 16.4% strikeout rate, which is a significant drop from his 25% rate last year in the majors. When that ability dips, everything else starts to get a little more fragile. More contact means more opportunities for hitters to square balls up, and that’s also showing up in the quality of contact. Opponents' average exit velocity against Matthews is up by about 2 MPH compared to last season, and when that’s paired with more pulled contact, it can lead to exactly what we’ve seen early on. Opponents have pulled 57% of the balls they’ve put in play against him, which is typically a sign that they’re seeing the ball well and getting the barrel out front. The five home runs he’s allowed are a devastating result of that consistent hard, pulled contact, but they're also a product of some bad luck. More than one out of every three fly balls he’s given up has left the yard. That’s not a rate that will hold over time, but it does highlight how little margin for error he’s had. A big part of that comes back to his stuff. Matthews’s velocity is down across the board. His fastball, sinker, and cutter are each sitting about 1 MPH lower than they were last season. His slider has dipped slightly, and his curveball is down even more significantly, by roughly 2.5 MPH. Even small drops like that can have a noticeable impact. If hitters don’t have to respect the same level of velocity, it becomes easier to time things up and make consistent contact. That can snowball quickly, especially when paired with a drop in swing-and-miss. It also helps explain why hitters have been so comfortable putting the ball in play. Without that extra life, Matthews hasn’t been able to generate the same level of deception or separation between his pitches. That said, there are still a couple of underlying indicators that engender optimism. His hard-hit rate currently sits at 38.3%, which is down slightly from last season. He’s also generating ground balls at a 45.7% clip, a strong shift for a pitcher who has historically been much more fly ball-heavy in the majors. In theory, that combination should limit damage, not amplify it. So there’s at least some element of poor luck mixed into these early results. With all that in mind, it’s worth noting that there’s also a mental side to this. Matthews came into camp with a strong shot at a rotation spot, particularly given the injuries around him, and to miss out on that opportunity can’t be an easy situation. Confidence and execution tend to go hand-in-hand, and early struggles can make both harder to regain. It’s important to keep the sample size in perspective. We’re talking about 12 1/3 innings here. That’s nothing over the course of a full season, and a couple of strong outings could shift his entire statistical profile in a hurry. Matthews has shown in the past that he’s capable of missing bats and limiting damage at a much higher level than this. But early trends still matter, especially when they’re tied to underlying changes in stuff. If his velocity and swing-and-miss numbers start to get back to 2025 levels, the results should follow. Right now, that’s the biggest thing to watch. The Twins are going to need starting pitching depth at some point this season, and Matthews is still very much part of that picture. But for now, this is a very slow start for a pitcher who hasn’t found any real consistency. View full article

Through the first couple weeks of the season, Walker Jenkins is already showing some interesting trends. The power hasn’t shown up yet, but his approach, contact, and patience at the plate point to a hitter taking a real step forward. View full video

I have to imagine. Presumably he'll be the long-term center fielder, but short term corner outfielder

Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-Imagn Images Over the first couple of weeks of the St. Paul Saints’ season, top Twins prospect Walker Jenkins has given a glimpse of both the positives and the areas that still need to come along. On the surface, his numbers might not immediately jump out. He’s hitting just .242, and there’s only one extra-base hit to his name so far. But once you dig a little deeper, there’s quite a bit more going on—and much about which to be hopeful. The most encouraging development has been his approach at the plate. Jenkins currently owns an on-base percentage north of .400, which stands out immediately when paired with that .242 batting average. That disparity is fueled by his ability to consistently reach base via the free pass. Through 42 plate appearances, Jenkins has drawn eight walks, compared to just six strikeouts. That comes out to a 19% walk rate and a 14.3% strikeout rate, both of which are extremely strong marks. For context, he walked just nine times across 102 plate appearances in St. Paul last season. Not only is the discipline there, but it’s taken a very noticeable step forward. Jenkins's swing rate is down to 39.5%, after sitting above 50% in Triple-A last year. He’s being more selective, laying off pitches out of the zone (his chase rate is a sensationally low 17.2%), and consistently working himself into favorable counts. For a hitter his age, that kind of approach is a really strong sign. And when he does decide to swing, he’s connecting. Jenkins currently holds a 90.2% contact rate on pitches in the strike zone. The percentage of pitches on which he swings and misses is lower than it's been since his time with Low-A Fort Myers as a teenager. There are also signs of progress when it comes to the quality of contact. Jenkins’s average exit velocity is up over 91 MPH, with a 90th percentile EV of 109.6. His raw power has never been in question, but more consistent hard contact is an important next step in his development. That said, the power production hasn’t shown up in games just yet. He has just one double so far, and his isolated power (ISO) sits at .030. That’s obviously well below where you’d expect it to be, even with the improved underlying metrics. It's just not possible to stack extra-base hits without elevating the ball more than he is right now. Jenkins is currently sporting a 56% ground-ball rate, which is a notable jump from the 41% mark he posted last year. He'll have to refine his approach to allow that hard contact and that control of the zone to persist as he starts lifting the ball. It’s worth emphasizing just how small a sample this is. A mere 42 plate appearances aren’t enough to draw any firm conclusions, and things like ground-ball rate can fluctuate pretty widely across 30 balls in play. If that number starts to come down even a little bit, the power output should follow. Jenkins dealt with a hamstring strain during spring training, but that appears to be fully behind him. [Ed. note: It would be a HUGE problem if his hamstring were only partly behind him; we believe it is both literally and figuratively behind him for the time being.] He’s already stolen three bases on three attempts, which is a strong indicator that he’s moving well and trusting his body again. That added element on the bases is another part of his overall profile that can impact the game even when the bat is still coming around. Combined with his on-base ability, it gives him multiple ways to contribute offensively. The early returns don’t need to be loud (in terms of raw outcomes) for there to be clear progress in the underlying profile. What stands out most is Jenkins controlling the strike zone at a high level, limiting the swing-and-miss, and showing more consistent impact when he does make contact. Those are the kinds of traits that tend to translate over a full season far more reliably than any short-term, surface-level results. The next step is fairly straightforward: elevating the ball more consistently. If he continues to pair this level of contact quality with a more optimal launch angle, the extra-base production should begin to follow naturally. For now, though, this is an encouraging start to the season for the Twins’ top prospect. The underlying indicators point to a player who is refining his offensive game in real time, even if the box score power hasn’t fully caught up yet. It will likely still be a little while before Jenkins makes his way to the major leagues, but if this early-season foundation holds, he remains firmly on track for a midseason arrival. With his all-around offensive profile, he has the potential to settle in at the top of the Twins’ lineup as soon as this summer. View full article

Andrew Morris’s MLB debut might not look dominant in the box score, but the underlying numbers tell a much different story. From upper-90s velocity to advanced command and a deep arsenal, there was a lot more to like than what meets the eye. View full video

The early returns from the Twins' offseason moves are already impactful, as Josh Bell, Victor Caratini, and Taylor Rogers have wasted no time making their presence felt. With contributions from Tristan Gray and Eric Orze as well, this new group is quickly giving the Minnesota Twins exactly what they needed. View full video

It might be time for Kaelen Culpepper, as the young shortstop continues to show he’s ready for the next step. With his all-around production and steady play, the Minnesota Twins could have a real spark waiting in the minors. View full video

There have been some walks, and since splitters are generally tough to command consistently, that’s not super surprising. But the damage has been minimal. He’s allowing very few hits, keeping the ball on the ground, and stranding runners when needed. Like Rogers, his value comes from limiting quality contact rather than overpowering hitters, and so far, it’s working. Then there’s Tristan Gray, who’s carved out a role despite limited opportunities. Gray has just a fraction of the at-bats compared to everyday players, yet he ranks second on the team with eight RBIs, trailing only Bell. Six of those RBIs have come with the bases loaded, highlighting just how impactful he's been. In high-leverage situations, Gray has been one of the team’s most productive hitters. His ability to deliver in those moments has given the Twins the clutch hitting they’ve desperately needed. Defensively, he’s been steady on the left side of the infield, providing reliable play at both shortstop and third base. That versatility only adds to his value, especially considering the defensive performances of Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee up to this point. Individually, none of these moves dominated headlines over the winter. But collectively, the impact has been clear, and the numbers back it up. Bell has provided elite production in the middle of the order, while Caratini has brought consistency and contact. Rogers and Orze have helped stabilize the bullpen, and Gray has delivered in big moments despite limited playing time. It’s a good reminder that building a winning roster doesn’t always require massive moves. Sometimes, it’s about identifying the right pieces and putting them in positions to succeed. Through the first stretch of the season, the Twins have done exactly that. And it’s a big reason why they currently find themselves above .500. View full article

Taj Bradley isn’t just off to a strong start; he’s showing signs of becoming a true difference-maker in the Twins’ rotation. With elite swing-and-miss stuff and improving command, he might be exactly what Minnesota has been missing. View full video

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images Box Score Starting Pitcher: Mick Abel - 6 IP, 4 H, 0 R, 3 BB, 6K (102 pitches, 70 strikes (69% strikes)) Home Runs: Josh Bell Top 3 WPA: Mick Abel (0.37), Brooks Lee (0.31), Josh Bell (0.17) Win Probability Chart (via Baseball Savant): The Twins came into Thursday afternoon riding a three-game winning streak, with a chance to finish off a four-game sweep of the Tigers—who started the season as the favorites to win the AL Central. Behind a bounce-back effort from their starter and a late offensive breakthrough, they did exactly that, grinding out a 3-1 win to wrap up the series. They didn’t dominate from start to finish. But they pitched, they adjusted, and when the moment finally came late, they delivered. MICK ABEL RESPONDS After a tough start to his season, Mick Abel really needed a clean outing. It didn’t start easy, though. For much of the afternoon, Abel was pitching with traffic on the bases. Soft contact, long at-bats, and a couple of walks pushed his pitch count up early, forcing him to work through constant pressure. With any young pitcher, the risk is that mounting pressure will eventually burst the pipe. Happily, Abel never let it do so. He leaned on his fastball to generate whiffs and consistently got ahead in counts, throwing first-pitch strikes to 19 of the 25 batters he faced. Even when Detroit put runners in scoring position, which they did in five of his six innings, he found a way out every time. By the middle innings, things started to settle. A much more efficient third and fourth frame stabilized his pitch count, and from there, he was in control. He mixed all five pitches, generated swings and misses throughout the day, and kept hitters from ever connecting on a big swing—though there were a few long, loud fly balls, including a double by Javier Báez that dented the right-field wall. The final line tells part of the story: six scoreless innings while working around traffic in nearly every frame. But the bigger takeaway was how Abel handled adversity. Detroit went hitless in 11 at-bats with runners in scoring position, and Abel never looked uncomfortable. For a pitcher looking to reset his season, this was a big step in the right direction. QUIET EARLY, JUST ENOUGH TO STAY CLOSE The Twins had chances early, but couldn't break through against Jack Flaherty. They put together quality at-bats right away. Trevor Larnach worked a one-out walk in the first, and Josh Bell followed with a single. Matt Wallner smoked a ball 102 MPH, but right into a double play that killed the rally. That set the tone for much of the afternoon. There was traffic, and there was hard contact. But there wasn’t a run until the fourth inning. Bell changed that with one swing, jumping on a first-pitch slider and driving it out to right-center for a solo home run. It came off the bat at 106 MPH and traveled over 400 feet, giving the Twins a 1-0 lead in a game where every run felt massive. From there, it settled into a true pitcher’s duel. Flaherty matched Abel for most of the day, keeping the Twins from adding on and forcing them to wait for another opportunity. Meanwhile, they came back to knot things up 1-1 as soon as Abel left, in the seventh. BROOKS LEE DELIVERS THE MOMENT The game finally cracked open in the eighth, and it came down to one at-bat. After a Wallner walk and a Victor Caratini base hit, Royce Lewis fought through visible discomfort to reach base and load them, and the Twins had their shot. Two outs, tie game, bases loaded. Brooks Lee stepped in. He worked the count full, giving himself a chance to live out every young baseball player’s dream, and he delivered. Lee ripped a single through the right side, scoring two and turning a 1-1 game into a 3-1 lead. After a slow start to his season, that swing felt significant—not just for the game, but for the embattled Lee, who hadn't started the game and erupted with uncharacteristic emotion when he came up with the game-winning hit. BULLPEN HOLDS ON The tablesetter for that feast was an uncomfortable stint from the bullpen. Newly acquired reliever Garrett Acton made his Twins debut in the seventh and immediately ran into trouble. A hit batter and a ground ball through the infield set up Detroit’s first real breakthrough, and a sacrifice fly tied the game at 1-1. It wasn’t clean, and the inning took 23 pitches—not ideal for a bullpen that had already been heavily used in recent days. But Acton bounced back. After the stressful seventh, he went back out in the eighth and needed just 12 pitches to retire the side in order. That quick inning ended up being massive, keeping the game tied and giving the offense a chance to respond. Once the Twins grabbed the lead in the bottom half, it was up to Eric Orze, and he delivered. Despite a couple of balls in play to start the inning (including one that looked like it might fall for a hit; Byron Buxton made a great play), the defense held up. Orze finished it off with a strikeout, locking down the save and sealing the sweep. The bullpen bent, but it didn’t break. That group deserves some credit, especially in the context of the series as a whole. With four different relievers recording a save in this series (Cody Laweryson, Justin Topa, Kody Funderburk, and Eric Orze), the Twins leaned on a mix of arms to navigate tight games and protect leads throughout. It’s a sign of both the workload they’ve taken on and the trust the staff has in different options late in games. What’s Next The Twins will head north of the border tomorrow to start a three-game series with the reigning American League champions, the Toronto Blue Jays. Simeon Woods Richardson will take the hill for the Twins, with left-hander Patrick Corbin throwing for Toronto. First pitch is set for 6:07 PM CT. Postgame Interviews Coming soon! Bullpen Usage Chart SUN MON TUE WED THU TOT Rogers 18 0 12 0 0 30 Funderburk 3 20 0 20 0 43 Sands 21 0 12 9 0 42 Topa 15 0 14 10 0 39 Laweryson 0 14 0 25 0 39 Banda 0 17 0 0 0 17 Orze 0 12 19 0 14 45 Acton 0 0 0 0 35 35 View full article

Image courtesy of © Denny Medley-Imagn Images A couple of weeks isn’t enough time for the standings to mean much, but it is enough time for early narratives to start forming. When it comes to Byron Buxton, the early numbers describe a hitter who is searching for answers. Through his first stretch of games, the production simply hasn’t been there. He snapped an 0-for-20 slide on Monday night, but entering Wednesday, he’s hitting just .158, with a .233 on-base percentage. His OPS (.496) is worse than all but two stretches of this length from 2025: one after he came off the injured list in mid-August, and another in mid-September, long after the season was lost. He's mired in a significant slump. That doesn’t sound much like Byron Buxton. And in some ways, it hasn’t been. While the results have been rough, the underlying metrics tell a very different story about how he’s actually swung the bat to open the year. Start with the quality of contact. Buxton owns a hard hit rate of exactly 50%, meaning half of the balls he’s put in play have come off the bat at 95 miles per hour or harder. That's a strong number in any context, and typically the kind of mark you would expect from a hitter producing far better results. Of course, exit velocity alone does not tell the full story. It doesn’t account for launch angle, and that’s where things start to get a bit more complicated. Buxton’s average launch angle sits at 32°, which is extremely high and helps explain the early struggles. An angle that high on average means a hitter is hitting too many routine fly balls or pop-ups, and that’s definitely been true for Buxton. Buxton has simply gotten too far under pitches, limiting the damage he’s capable of doing. But even with that in mind, there are strong signs that luck has not been on his side. His barrel rate currently sits at 10.7%, which places him in the 66th percentile across Major League Baseball. A barrel is a batted ball that combines ideal exit velocity and launch angle, generally at least 98 MPH off the bat with a launch angle between 25° and 31°. That’s the type of contact most often associated with extra-base hits. Buxton has recorded three barrels so far this season. He does not have a hit on any of them. That, alone, is a strong indicator that the results have not lined up with the process. When hitters are consistently producing that class of contact, the outcomes tend to follow. In Buxton’s case, they simply haven’t yet—although the nature of analyzing small samples like this is such that we can't quite say he's consistently barreling the ball, either. Because of who he is, the hard contact feels more like a signal, and the poor results feel like noise. It could turn out to be the other way around. That’s where the bigger picture comes into focus. Buxton hasn’t been perfect at the plate. The elevated launch angle is something to watch, and there are adjustments he can make to turn more of those fly balls into line drives. His BABIP is just .214, but it's hard to label that as bad luck while he's hitting so many fly balls. As Twins fans learned the hard way over long years with Max Kepler, hitting it in the air at an extreme rate is good for power production but bad for BABIP. He can and will refine his process, to get back to hitting the ball on lower lines. He's catching the ball farther out in front of his body and getting around it more this year, despite a lower swing speed. It's no wonder he's producing some suboptimal flies. This isn’t a case of a hitter who looks overmatched. It’s a hitter who’s hitting the ball hard, producing a solid rate of barrels, and maintaining a strong presence in the sweet spot, all while seeing very little to show for it in the box score. That combination usually doesn’t last very long, and indeed, even the numbers that corroborate the poor results hint at an opportunity to unlock big value with a relatively minor set of adjustments. Over the course of a 162-game season, those underlying metrics have a way of winning out. Balls that are currently finding gloves will start to drop in; well-struck fly balls will begin to carry a bit farther (especially as the weather warms up); and line drives will start to split gaps instead of being caught. When that shift happens, the stat line can change in a hurry. When he’s on, Buxton is one of the most exciting hitters in the game, capable of changing a lineup with both power and elite speed. That version of him didn’t just disappear overnight; the underlying data still shows the raw talent. Right now, the results have not matched the process. But over time, they usually do. It’s not a matter of if Buxton turns things around, but when. View full article

Joe Ryan has shown a little bit of everything in his first three starts: flashes of dominance mixed with inefficiency and bad luck. A closer look at his underlying performance shows a story that doesn’t necessarily match the surface-level numbers. View full video