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After a Brutal Start to 2026, Royce Lewis Suddenly Can't Stop Hitting
Sam Caulder posted an article in Twins
For the past several seasons, Royce Lewis has been one of the most frustrating players in all of baseball. And unfortunately, there are multiple reasons why. Since 2021, Lewis has been plagued by lower-body injuries, including multiple ACL tears that have cost him significant chunks of development time. Every time it seems like he's gaining momentum, another setback happens. While the flashes of superstar potential have always been there, the consistency hasn't been. When a player misses that much time during crucial developmental years, it's hard not to wonder what could have been. Those injuries haven't just kept Lewis off the field. They've also made it difficult for him to establish rhythm, make adjustments, and build on previous success. As a result, his performance at the major-league level has been a roller coaster. That frustration reached a new level during the first two months of the 2026 season. Through May 17, Lewis was hitting just .163 with a .261 on-base percentage and a 53 wRC+. He wasn't just struggling; he was producing runs roughly half as well as an average major-league hitter. Eventually, the Twins decided something needed to change. Lewis was optioned to Triple-A, in hopes that he could reset both mechanically and mentally. While some viewed the move as a concerning development for a former No. 1 overall pick, it may end up being one of the most important decisions the organization has made all season. Once Lewis arrived in Triple-A, he immediately caught fire. Over a 13-game stretch, he hit .340 and launched eight home runs, reminding everyone exactly what he’s capable of. That hot streak earned him a quick return to the major leagues. And since being recalled on June 6, Lewis has looked like a completely different hitter. In a small sample of 33 plate appearances, he's hitting .379 with a .424 on-base percentage, five extra-base hits, and a stolen base. More importantly, the quality of his at-bats has looked dramatically different. The biggest difference? He's making contact. Before his demotion, He was striking out 31% of the time. Since returning, that number has plummeted to 13%. That's an enormous shift for any hitter, especially one who looked completely lost just a few weeks ago. So what's changed? For starters, it appears Lewis made a notable mechanical adjustment to his swing. While he's always had a small leg kick when he plants his front leg, that leg kick is now much larger. Leg kicks are a funny thing in baseball. Some hitters will have one, but abandon it to simplify their mechanics. Some hitters add one to help with timing and explosion. If the early results are any indication, that extra leg kick is working for Lewis. He's been a much more powerful hitter while remaining on time, and the swing data backs it up. Before being sent down, Lewis was averaging 73.8 mph of bat speed. That's not necessarily a bad number, but since being recalled, it's gotten even faster. Lewis is now averaging 76 mph of bat speed, a mark that's among the best of all major-league hitters. A bigger leg kick means more sheer force transferred into his front side, without necessarily losing control of his stroke. Not only is he swinging the bat faster, but the improved bat speed is translating into better results across the board. He's hitting the ball harder, he's making significantly more contact (which is likely a result of just trusting his swing more), and he looks much more like the version of Royce Lewis that Twins fans fell in love with a few years ago. But the changes don't stop there. In addition to swinging a faster bat, there appears to be a clear shift in what Lewis is trying to accomplish at the plate. One of the most telling indicators is his pulled fly-ball rate. Before his demotion, just 19.1% of the balls he put in play were in the air to his pull side. That's not a terrible number by any means, but pulled fly balls are one of the easiest ways for hitters to generate extra-base power. For a player with Lewis's strength and bat speed, you'd like to see that number a little higher. Since returning to the majors, that number has jumped. Over the past week and a half, his pulled fly-ball rate is up to 27%, which currently is in the 97th percentile of all major-league hitters. That may not sound like a huge gap on the surface, but it's a substantial adjustment in approach. It’s allowing his raw power to play up in games. As a result, his barrel rate has surged as well, and the overall quality of contact has taken a significant step forward. It genuinely feels like Lewis's swing has leveled up since returning from Triple-A. Now, it's important to remember that we're still talking about a very small sample size. Pitchers will make adjustments, and Lewis will inevitably cool off at some point. That's just how baseball works. The higher leg kick has helped him catch the ball with his barrel more often when he's been on time; here's the timing distributions for him by month for swings on which he's on time. Since his recall, he lines up the ball better on those swings, which is why we're seeing that pulled fly-ball contact. What this doesn't show you, though, is that Lewis is still early very often—in fact, a hair more so than before he went down. He's on time for the fastball, but still early on other stuff. Pitchers will start forcing him to sit back a bit more again, and he'll have to adapt. But even if the production regresses, the underlying changes are encouraging. The bat speed is up, the contact rate is up, and the quality of contact is up. But perhaps most importantly, his confidence appears to be back. Lewis looks like a different player right now, and when he's in a groove, he legitimately looks like one of the best hitters in the league. We've seen flashes of that before, where he looks capable of carrying an offense all by himself. The challenge has always been finding a way to sustain it. For now, though, Twins fans should enjoy what they're watching. Because this version of Royce Lewis is the player everyone has been waiting for. Let's hope he's here to stay, because my gosh, is this fun to watch. -
Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images For the past several seasons, Royce Lewis has been one of the most frustrating players in all of baseball. And unfortunately, there are multiple reasons why. Since 2021, Lewis has been plagued by lower-body injuries, including multiple ACL tears that have cost him significant chunks of development time. Every time it seems like he's gaining momentum, another setback happens. While the flashes of superstar potential have always been there, the consistency hasn't been. When a player misses that much time during crucial developmental years, it's hard not to wonder what could have been. Those injuries haven't just kept Lewis off the field. They've also made it difficult for him to establish rhythm, make adjustments, and build on previous success. As a result, his performance at the major-league level has been a roller coaster. That frustration reached a new level during the first two months of the 2026 season. Through May 17, Lewis was hitting just .163 with a .261 on-base percentage and a 53 wRC+. He wasn't just struggling; he was producing runs roughly half as well as an average major-league hitter. Eventually, the Twins decided something needed to change. Lewis was optioned to Triple-A, in hopes that he could reset both mechanically and mentally. While some viewed the move as a concerning development for a former No. 1 overall pick, it may end up being one of the most important decisions the organization has made all season. Once Lewis arrived in Triple-A, he immediately caught fire. Over a 13-game stretch, he hit .340 and launched eight home runs, reminding everyone exactly what he’s capable of. That hot streak earned him a quick return to the major leagues. And since being recalled on June 6, Lewis has looked like a completely different hitter. In a small sample of 33 plate appearances, he's hitting .379 with a .424 on-base percentage, five extra-base hits, and a stolen base. More importantly, the quality of his at-bats has looked dramatically different. The biggest difference? He's making contact. Before his demotion, He was striking out 31% of the time. Since returning, that number has plummeted to 13%. That's an enormous shift for any hitter, especially one who looked completely lost just a few weeks ago. So what's changed? For starters, it appears Lewis made a notable mechanical adjustment to his swing. While he's always had a small leg kick when he plants his front leg, that leg kick is now much larger. Leg kicks are a funny thing in baseball. Some hitters will have one, but abandon it to simplify their mechanics. Some hitters add one to help with timing and explosion. If the early results are any indication, that extra leg kick is working for Lewis. He's been a much more powerful hitter while remaining on time, and the swing data backs it up. Before being sent down, Lewis was averaging 73.8 mph of bat speed. That's not necessarily a bad number, but since being recalled, it's gotten even faster. Lewis is now averaging 76 mph of bat speed, a mark that's among the best of all major-league hitters. A bigger leg kick means more sheer force transferred into his front side, without necessarily losing control of his stroke. Not only is he swinging the bat faster, but the improved bat speed is translating into better results across the board. He's hitting the ball harder, he's making significantly more contact (which is likely a result of just trusting his swing more), and he looks much more like the version of Royce Lewis that Twins fans fell in love with a few years ago. But the changes don't stop there. In addition to swinging a faster bat, there appears to be a clear shift in what Lewis is trying to accomplish at the plate. One of the most telling indicators is his pulled fly-ball rate. Before his demotion, just 19.1% of the balls he put in play were in the air to his pull side. That's not a terrible number by any means, but pulled fly balls are one of the easiest ways for hitters to generate extra-base power. For a player with Lewis's strength and bat speed, you'd like to see that number a little higher. Since returning to the majors, that number has jumped. Over the past week and a half, his pulled fly-ball rate is up to 27%, which currently is in the 97th percentile of all major-league hitters. That may not sound like a huge gap on the surface, but it's a substantial adjustment in approach. It’s allowing his raw power to play up in games. As a result, his barrel rate has surged as well, and the overall quality of contact has taken a significant step forward. It genuinely feels like Lewis's swing has leveled up since returning from Triple-A. Now, it's important to remember that we're still talking about a very small sample size. Pitchers will make adjustments, and Lewis will inevitably cool off at some point. That's just how baseball works. The higher leg kick has helped him catch the ball with his barrel more often when he's been on time; here's the timing distributions for him by month for swings on which he's on time. Since his recall, he lines up the ball better on those swings, which is why we're seeing that pulled fly-ball contact. What this doesn't show you, though, is that Lewis is still early very often—in fact, a hair more so than before he went down. He's on time for the fastball, but still early on other stuff. Pitchers will start forcing him to sit back a bit more again, and he'll have to adapt. But even if the production regresses, the underlying changes are encouraging. The bat speed is up, the contact rate is up, and the quality of contact is up. But perhaps most importantly, his confidence appears to be back. Lewis looks like a different player right now, and when he's in a groove, he legitimately looks like one of the best hitters in the league. We've seen flashes of that before, where he looks capable of carrying an offense all by himself. The challenge has always been finding a way to sustain it. For now, though, Twins fans should enjoy what they're watching. Because this version of Royce Lewis is the player everyone has been waiting for. Let's hope he's here to stay, because my gosh, is this fun to watch. View full article
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Riley Quick is quickly (pun intended) becoming one of the most exciting Twins prospects to watch. The Twins drafted him with the 36th overall pick in last summer's MLB Draft, and the early returns on that investment have been extremely promising. Across 33 innings between Low-A Fort Myers and High-A Cedar Rapids, the 6-foot-6, 255-pound right-hander owns a 3.27 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He's also racked up a staggering 52 strikeouts compared to just 14 walks. Even those numbers don't fully capture just how dominant he's been. Quick's strikeout rate currently sits at a ridiculous 40.3%, which ranks fifth among all minor league pitchers with at least 30 innings pitched this season. That's not just good; that's not even just great. What Riley Quick is doing right now simply isn't normal. Of course, there's a reason he was available at pick #36 to begin with, and it had very little to do with his talent. Quick tore his UCL during his 2024 season debut at the University of Alabama and underwent Tommy John surgery shortly after. While the injury ultimately pushed him down draft boards, he showed plenty of promise upon returning in 2025, posting a 3.92 ERA over 62 innings. That's important context because his ability has never been in doubt. The question was always going to be whether he could get healthy and stay healthy. So far, he's answering that question with a resounding yes. Still, because of that elbow surgery, the Twins may ultimately decide to slow-play him through his development, which would be understandable to an extent. But what if they didn't? When the Twins drafted Quick, he already possessed a very impressive three-pitch mix. His fastball was a legitimate weapon, his slider generated lots of whiffs, and his changeup looked like a quality third offering. If the early results are any indication, all three pitches are still very much playing at a high level. Quick currently owns an outrageous 18.1% swinging-strike rate. For some perspective, fellow highly-touted pitching prospect Dasan Hill (who also has very impressive stuff) sits at 12.8%. Don’t mistake that as a knock on Hill. It's a testament to just how overwhelming Quick has been. The underlying numbers support that reality. Riley Quick, the 36th pick in the ‘25 draft, set a new pro career high in strikeouts last night for the @CRKernels and now has a 40.3 K% this season ? 4.2 IP / 4 H / 3 R / 2 BB / 9 K He topped out at 97.5 MPH and had a 70% whiff rate (7/10) on his SL on the day ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/zxcS3i73eZ — Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) June 12, 2026 At first glance, some might point to Quick's 4.32 ERA at High-A and have some questions. But that’s far from the full story. His strikeout numbers remain elite, his walk rate is manageable, and much of the damage against him can be attributed to a high BABIP rather than hitters consistently squaring him up. In other words, the stuff is still dominating, and that's what makes this conversation so interesting. Quick isn't some raw high school arm learning how to pitch for the first time, either. He comes from the SEC, which is widely regarded as the toughest conference in college baseball. Eight of the top 27 picks in last year’s draft class resided from that conference. Quick not only experienced that environment, but he thrived in it, as he struck out more than one of every four batters he faced. So you've got a pitcher whose stuff is playing at an extremely high level, who appears healthy, and who already owns a track record of success against high-level competition. If I'm the Twins, I want to see what he looks like against Double-A and Triple-A hitters. Regardless of my personal beliefs, that's not necessarily the route they'll take. Again, the elbow surgery is a factor here. The organization may have innings limits in mind and may prefer a more gradual progression. There's certainly logic behind that approach. At the same time, it's become increasingly common for organizations to move pitchers quickly through the minor leagues when the performance justifies it. Trey Yesavage of the Blue Jays is a great recent example. Toronto selected him in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft. He opened the 2025 season in Low-A, but his stuff was so dominant that the Blue Jays aggressively challenged him throughout the year. By this time last season, he had already reached Double-A. By mid-August, he was pitching in Triple-A. He eventually was promoted to the majors and carried that momentum into the postseason, playing a major role in helping Toronto come within one win of a World Series title. The similarities between Yesavage and Quick are hard to ignore as well. Both are mature college arms, both possess outstanding stuff, both have piled up gaudy strikeout totals, and both entered professional baseball with strong collegiate track records. The only big difference is that Yesavage didn't have a previous elbow surgery. But if Quick is taking the mound every fifth day, missing bats at an elite rate, and sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, I'd argue he's feeling pretty good. This isn't to say the Twins should completely abandon whatever development plan they've established for him; far from it. Player development isn't always linear, and organizations have more information than we do regarding workload, recovery, and long-term projections. Still, I think it would be a mistake not to see what you've got at, bare minimum, the upper levels of the minor leagues at some point this season. Pitchers with Quick's combination of size, athleticism, velocity, and swing-and-miss ability don't come around very often. The Twins may choose to be patient, and that's perfectly reasonable. But if he continues to flat-out overpower hitters, the organization is eventually going to run out of reasons to keep him in the lower levels of the minors. Will we see Riley Quick make his major league debut in 2026? Probably not, but the odds of that happening are—or at least should be—above zero. And if he keeps pitching like this, those odds are only going to keep climbing.
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At first glance, some might point to Quick's 4.32 ERA at High-A and have some questions. But that’s far from the full story. His strikeout numbers remain elite, his walk rate is manageable, and much of the damage against him can be attributed to a high BABIP rather than hitters consistently squaring him up. In other words, the stuff is still dominating, and that's what makes this conversation so interesting. Quick isn't some raw high school arm learning how to pitch for the first time, either. He comes from the SEC, which is widely regarded as the toughest conference in college baseball. Eight of the top 27 picks in last year’s draft class resided from that conference. Quick not only experienced that environment, but he thrived in it, as he struck out more than one of every four batters he faced. So you've got a pitcher whose stuff is playing at an extremely high level, who appears healthy, and who already owns a track record of success against high-level competition. If I'm the Twins, I want to see what he looks like against Double-A and Triple-A hitters. Regardless of my personal beliefs, that's not necessarily the route they'll take. Again, the elbow surgery is a factor here. The organization may have innings limits in mind and may prefer a more gradual progression. There's certainly logic behind that approach. At the same time, it's become increasingly common for organizations to move pitchers quickly through the minor leagues when the performance justifies it. Trey Yesavage of the Blue Jays is a great recent example. Toronto selected him in the first round of the 2024 MLB Draft. He opened the 2025 season in Low-A, but his stuff was so dominant that the Blue Jays aggressively challenged him throughout the year. By this time last season, he had already reached Double-A. By mid-August, he was pitching in Triple-A. He eventually was promoted to the majors and carried that momentum into the postseason, playing a major role in helping Toronto come within one win of a World Series title. The similarities between Yesavage and Quick are hard to ignore as well. Both are mature college arms, both possess outstanding stuff, both have piled up gaudy strikeout totals, and both entered professional baseball with strong collegiate track records. The only big difference is that Yesavage didn't have a previous elbow surgery. But if Quick is taking the mound every fifth day, missing bats at an elite rate, and sitting in the mid-90s with his fastball, I'd argue he's feeling pretty good. This isn't to say the Twins should completely abandon whatever development plan they've established for him; far from it. Player development isn't always linear, and organizations have more information than we do regarding workload, recovery, and long-term projections. Still, I think it would be a mistake not to see what you've got at, bare minimum, the upper levels of the minor leagues at some point this season. Pitchers with Quick's combination of size, athleticism, velocity, and swing-and-miss ability don't come around very often. The Twins may choose to be patient, and that's perfectly reasonable. But if he continues to flat-out overpower hitters, the organization is eventually going to run out of reasons to keep him in the lower levels of the minors. Will we see Riley Quick make his major league debut in 2026? Probably not, but the odds of that happening are—or at least should be—above zero. And if he keeps pitching like this, those odds are only going to keep climbing. View full article
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A huge spike in strikeouts hasn't been enough to offset another troubling development in Andrew Morris's recent outings.
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None of those pitches were located well, and all three mistakes wound up in the seats. That’s been the story for Matthews throughout much of his major league career so far. He pounds the strike zone. In fact, he may pound it a little too much. The encouraging part is that there’s still a tremendous amount of upside here. The home run problem is significant, but it also feels fixable. Matthews has a deep arsenal. He misses bats with his secondary pitches, he limits walks, and he works efficiently while consistently getting ahead in counts. Those are all traits that successful starters possess. The next step is simply improving his command within the strike zone. If Matthews can do a better job of keeping his pitches off the barrel and limiting hard contact, there’s still plenty of reason to believe in his long-term outlook. The ingredients are all there. The strike-throwing ability, the swing-and-miss stuff, and the ability to work deep into games are all things Zebby Matthews has. Now it’s just about refining his location. If he can get the home runs under control, a potential frontline starter is still very much within his range of outcomes. That’s obviously easier said than done, but we’ve also seen him dominate when teams aren’t squaring him up. The gap between where Matthews is now and where he can be might just come down to a few misplaced pitches each start. View full article
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Zebby Matthews Is Close to Breaking Out, But One Major Issue Remains
Sam Caulder posted an article in Twins
There’s a lot to like with Zebby Matthews as a player. For a pitcher that’s still on the younger side at just 26 years old, Matthews possesses the one fundamental trait that organizations covet the most: the ability to throw strikes consistently. Throughout his professional career, he’s shown outstanding control of the strike zone, limiting walks and forcing hitters to earn their way on base. Matthews owns a career 2.6 BB/9 rate, and his strikeout-to-walk ratio sits at an impressive 3.66-to-1. More often than not, that’s a formula for becoming a quality major league starter, and pitchers with those kinds of numbers find success. But there’s been something else that has plagued Matthews since arriving in the majors back in 2024. For the first couple years of his big league career, Matthews was allowing far too many hits. Across 117 innings between 2024 and 2025, he surrendered a staggering 145 hits. That comes out to 11.2 hits per nine innings, which is an alarming number for any starting pitcher. A lot of that damage was tied directly to the long ball. Of those 145 hits, 23 left the yard. So the hope coming into this season was that Matthews would be able to limit the total number of hits he allowed, but especially the home runs. If he could do that, the results would likely follow. Fast forward to mid-June, and to his credit, Matthews has done a better job of limiting overall contact. He’s allowing fewer than one hit per inning, his line-drive rate has dropped substantially, and he’s generating more ground balls than he did previously. The problem is that while the line drives have decreased, the fly balls have increased. And with more fly balls have come more home runs. Through just 36 innings with the Twins this season, Matthews has already allowed eight homers, including three on Thursday against the Tigers. Now, through 31 career major league starts, Matthews has allowed 31 home runs. That simply isn’t a recipe for long-term success. So what’s causing the quality-of-contact issues? I think it starts with the fact that his four-seam fastball has simply not been a very effective pitch. While Matthews' secondary offerings continue to generate swings and misses, the fastball has lagged behind. Opposing hitters haven't had much trouble handling it, and the whiff rate on the pitch sits at just 12% this season. That’s a concerning number considering how frequently he uses it. Matthews throws the four-seamer roughly 38% of the time, and when hitters put it in play, they’re doing damage. Opponents own a .500 slugging percentage on fastballs put in play against him this season. A big reason for that comes down to location. Matthews' fastball, along with his slider and curveball (his two main secondary pitches), are catching far too much of the plate. I mentioned his low walk rate earlier – Matthews has outstanding control of the strike zone. However, command of the strike zone is a different conversation entirely. Control is the ability to throw strikes. Command is the ability to throw quality strikes. And far too often, Matthews' pitches are finishing out over the heart of the plate. Thursday’s outing against Detroit served as a perfect example. The first home run he allowed came on a 2-1 curveball that was left right over the middle of the plate to Spencer Torkelson. The second was a 3-0 fastball that I’m not sure could’ve been more center-cut, and the third was a first-pitch changeup that stayed elevated in the zone and got punished. None of those pitches were located well, and all three mistakes wound up in the seats. That’s been the story for Matthews throughout much of his major league career so far. He pounds the strike zone. In fact, he may pound it a little too much. The encouraging part is that there’s still a tremendous amount of upside here. The home run problem is significant, but it also feels fixable. Matthews has a deep arsenal. He misses bats with his secondary pitches, he limits walks, and he works efficiently while consistently getting ahead in counts. Those are all traits that successful starters possess. The next step is simply improving his command within the strike zone. If Matthews can do a better job of keeping his pitches off the barrel and limiting hard contact, there’s still plenty of reason to believe in his long-term outlook. The ingredients are all there. The strike-throwing ability, the swing-and-miss stuff, and the ability to work deep into games are all things Zebby Matthews has. Now it’s just about refining his location. If he can get the home runs under control, a potential frontline starter is still very much within his range of outcomes. That’s obviously easier said than done, but we’ve also seen him dominate when teams aren’t squaring him up. The gap between where Matthews is now and where he can be might just come down to a few misplaced pitches each start. -
Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Since getting called up to the majors in mid-April, Andrew Morris has been extremely streaky. The rookie right-hander finished the month of April with a 6.35 ERA, but rebounded very nicely in May, posting a much more encouraging 2.19 ERA. At times, Morris has looked every bit like a pitcher capable of sticking in the Twins' bullpen long-term. Recently, though, things have taken a turn for the worse. Despite a huge surge in his strikeout totals, Morris's last three outings have not been sharp. Across those appearances, he's allowed seven earned runs over just 4 2/3 innings, while giving up 11 hits and two walks. (He should have gotten more help from his defense in one of those outings, and arguably, the two runs he gave up then should not have been earned, but still.) While he’s recorded nine strikeouts during that stretch, the results simply haven't been there. So what's actually been going wrong for Andrew Morris? From what I've gathered, there are a couple of different reasons. The first is that his secondary pitches are not performing well. Over those three most recent outings, Morris has generated a collective whiff rate of just 19% on his secondary offerings. For a pitcher who relies on a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance, that's a concerning development. Hitters have simply done a better job of putting those pitches in play. When the swing-and-miss ability of those secondary pitches disappears, another issue tends to follow. The quality of contact he’s allowed has changed. Over this recent stretch, Morris' hard-hit rate has climbed substantially, to 44%. That trend is especially troublesome because limiting hard contact has been the best part of Morris's game since he arrived in the majors. On the season as a whole, he's been excellent at suppressing damage. His barrel rate ranks in the 95th percentile among major-league pitchers, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate sit comfortably within the top quarter of the league. Even when hitters have made contact against Morris this year, it generally hasn't been loud contact. That's a big reason why many of the underlying metrics continue to paint a much more optimistic picture than his traditional numbers would suggest. In fact, both his expected ERA and FIP are more than two runs lower than his actual 5.59 ERA. That's a massive difference. For much of the season, that gap suggests Morris has been the victim of some poor luck (and, again, that lousy defense), rather than poor pitching. His season-long numbers are inflated by results that don't necessarily match the quality of his performance. This recent stretch, however, feels a little different. The hard-contact problem is real, and if the best part of his game isn't performing the way it needs to, that's when things can become problematic. Now, with all of that said, it's important to note a couple of things before sounding any alarms. First, these struggles are very new. We're talking about a sample size of just three outings. That's not enough to suddenly rewrite everything we've learned about Morris over the first couple of months of his major-league career. Odds are good that this is nothing more than a bump in the road, which is extremely common for young pitchers adjusting to the highest level of baseball. Major league hitters make adjustments, and young pitchers have to learn how to counter them. That's part of the development process. The second thing worth mentioning is that Morris's fastball has been awesome. Even during this rough stretch, that pitch has continued to perform at a high level. He's consistently sitting around 97 MPH and has even reached triple digits at times. The velocity has certainly been there, but more importantly, so has the effectiveness. His whiff rate on the four-seam fastball has trended upward, which is an encouraging sign. If the fastball remains a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon, Morris already has a strong foundation to work from while he irons out the issues with his secondary pitches. That's a big reason why I'm not particularly worried about him right now. The underlying data still shows a pitcher who has been wildly unlucky for much of the season. His ability to limit barrels remains elite; his expected metrics remain strong; and his fastball continues to miss bats at an impressive rate. While the recent struggles are worth monitoring, they don't fundamentally change his outlook. As I mentioned earlier, the quality of contact piece is the biggest thing to watch. If hitters continue squaring him up and the hard-hit rate remains elevated, that's when the conversation becomes more concerning. But for now, I think this is simply a rough patch. Every young pitcher goes through them. And based on everything we've seen from Morris so far, there's still plenty of reason to believe he'll come out the other side just fine. View full article
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Breaking Down Andrew Morris’s Rough Stretch, and Why It’s Too Soon to Panic
Sam Caulder posted an article in Twins
Since getting called up to the majors in mid-April, Andrew Morris has been extremely streaky. The rookie right-hander finished the month of April with a 6.35 ERA, but rebounded very nicely in May, posting a much more encouraging 2.19 ERA. At times, Morris has looked every bit like a pitcher capable of sticking in the Twins' bullpen long-term. Recently, though, things have taken a turn for the worse. Despite a huge surge in his strikeout totals, Morris's last three outings have not been sharp. Across those appearances, he's allowed seven earned runs over just 4 2/3 innings, while giving up 11 hits and two walks. (He should have gotten more help from his defense in one of those outings, and arguably, the two runs he gave up then should not have been earned, but still.) While he’s recorded nine strikeouts during that stretch, the results simply haven't been there. So what's actually been going wrong for Andrew Morris? From what I've gathered, there are a couple of different reasons. The first is that his secondary pitches are not performing well. Over those three most recent outings, Morris has generated a collective whiff rate of just 19% on his secondary offerings. For a pitcher who relies on a diverse arsenal to keep hitters off balance, that's a concerning development. Hitters have simply done a better job of putting those pitches in play. When the swing-and-miss ability of those secondary pitches disappears, another issue tends to follow. The quality of contact he’s allowed has changed. Over this recent stretch, Morris' hard-hit rate has climbed substantially, to 44%. That trend is especially troublesome because limiting hard contact has been the best part of Morris's game since he arrived in the majors. On the season as a whole, he's been excellent at suppressing damage. His barrel rate ranks in the 95th percentile among major-league pitchers, while both his average exit velocity and hard-hit rate sit comfortably within the top quarter of the league. Even when hitters have made contact against Morris this year, it generally hasn't been loud contact. That's a big reason why many of the underlying metrics continue to paint a much more optimistic picture than his traditional numbers would suggest. In fact, both his expected ERA and FIP are more than two runs lower than his actual 5.59 ERA. That's a massive difference. For much of the season, that gap suggests Morris has been the victim of some poor luck (and, again, that lousy defense), rather than poor pitching. His season-long numbers are inflated by results that don't necessarily match the quality of his performance. This recent stretch, however, feels a little different. The hard-contact problem is real, and if the best part of his game isn't performing the way it needs to, that's when things can become problematic. Now, with all of that said, it's important to note a couple of things before sounding any alarms. First, these struggles are very new. We're talking about a sample size of just three outings. That's not enough to suddenly rewrite everything we've learned about Morris over the first couple of months of his major-league career. Odds are good that this is nothing more than a bump in the road, which is extremely common for young pitchers adjusting to the highest level of baseball. Major league hitters make adjustments, and young pitchers have to learn how to counter them. That's part of the development process. The second thing worth mentioning is that Morris's fastball has been awesome. Even during this rough stretch, that pitch has continued to perform at a high level. He's consistently sitting around 97 MPH and has even reached triple digits at times. The velocity has certainly been there, but more importantly, so has the effectiveness. His whiff rate on the four-seam fastball has trended upward, which is an encouraging sign. If the fastball remains a legitimate swing-and-miss weapon, Morris already has a strong foundation to work from while he irons out the issues with his secondary pitches. That's a big reason why I'm not particularly worried about him right now. The underlying data still shows a pitcher who has been wildly unlucky for much of the season. His ability to limit barrels remains elite; his expected metrics remain strong; and his fastball continues to miss bats at an impressive rate. While the recent struggles are worth monitoring, they don't fundamentally change his outlook. As I mentioned earlier, the quality of contact piece is the biggest thing to watch. If hitters continue squaring him up and the hard-hit rate remains elevated, that's when the conversation becomes more concerning. But for now, I think this is simply a rough patch. Every young pitcher goes through them. And based on everything we've seen from Morris so far, there's still plenty of reason to believe he'll come out the other side just fine. -
Box Score SP: Zebby Matthews - 6 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 4 K (81 pitches, 51 strikes (63% strikes)) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Zebby Matthews (-0.22), Brooks Lee (-0.06), Tristan Gray (-0.05) Win Probability Chart The Twins entered Thursday’s series finale against the Tigers in Detroit looking to secure a series victory. With a win, Minnesota would not only take the series, but also build a much-needed response within the division. Instead, it turned into a rough afternoon from the start. Zebby Matthews took the mound coming off seven strong innings in his previous outing, but the Tigers quickly seized control and never let go, rolling to an 11-0 win that sent Minnesota to another frustrating defeat. The Twins dropped to 31-39 on the season. EARLY OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES SET THE TONE Detroit starter Keider Montero needed just eight pitches to dispatch the top of the Twins’ order in the first inning, setting an early tone of dominance. Trevor Larnach popped out, Byron Buxton popped out, and Kody Clemens struck out to end a quick frame. The only real spark early came in the second inning, when Royce Lewis worked an eight-pitch at-bat and lined a two-out single. Minnesota couldn’t build on it. That pattern repeated throughout the afternoon—brief baserunners, but no sustained pressure. MATTHEWS RUNS INTO EARLY TROUBLE AGAIN The first inning immediately tested Matthews, as Kevin McGonigle ripped a leadoff double that just barely stayed in the park. A sacrifice fly from Riley Greene brought home the game’s first run, giving Detroit a 1-0 lead before Matthews had settled in. He did briefly stabilize, needing just 21 pitches through two innings, but the third and fourth proved costly. In the fourth, Dillon Dingler continued his strong series against Minnesota with a double, and Austin Martin made a highlight-reel diving catch to save additional damage. Still, the Tigers broke through when Colt Keith drove in a run, and Spencer Torkelson launched a two-run homer to left, turning a tight game into a 4-0 lead. Matthews’s efficiency couldn’t mask the damage—he continued to avoid long innings, but the ball kept leaving the yard or finding gaps. It felt like the TGwins gave him strict instructions to keep filling up the zone no matter what, since they needed length from him to reset their bullpen. He did his best, but paid for that approach. TIGERS BREAK IT OPEN WITH THE LONG BALL The fifth inning brought more of the same. Gleyber Torres jumped on a fastball and sent it over the right-field wall for a solo homer, pushing the lead to 5-0. In the sixth, Colt Keith added another blast—this time a no-doubt shot to right-center—making it 7-0 and marking Matthews’s third home run allowed of the day. It was the first dinger Keith had hit all season. Despite pitching efficiently in terms of pitch count, Matthews couldn’t escape the long ball, and Detroit steadily stretched the lead. By the time his outing ended, he had thrown six innings on just 81 pitches, but had allowed seven runs and three home runs in a difficult start. NO ANSWERS OFFENSIVELY The Twins’ offense never found traction against Montero or the Detroit bullpen. A brief seventh-inning rally saw Lewis collect his second hit of the day and Victor Caratini add a single, but Minnesota stranded runners and couldn’t break through. Earlier opportunities were few and far between, and even when they reached base, the Twins struggled to deliver anything resembling a sustained threat. LATE INNINGS TURN INTO A ROUT The game spiraled further in the late innings. After Matthews exited, the Tigers continued to pour it on. Kerry Carpenter added a walk, Riley Greene homered again in the seventh, and Dillon Dingler collected yet another hit in a dominant series. The eighth inning turned into a full-blown avalanche, with Detroit hitting multiple home runs to extend the lead to double digits against position-player pitcher Alex Jackson. The ninth inning came and went quickly, as Lewis struck out looking to end the game, sealing an 11-0 defeat. It was a series that began with opportunity and ended with a lopsided loss, as Minnesota once again struggled to compete within the division. The Twins will head into their next stretch still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball after a day where nothing clicked in Detroit. What’s Next? The Twins return home tomorrow to begin a three-game weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Stopper Joe Ryan toes the rubber for Minnesota, and it’ll be right-hander Kyle Leahy for St. Louis. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM. Postgame Interviews Coming Soon! Bullpen Availability Chart
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Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images Box Score SP: Zebby Matthews - 6 IP, 9 H, 7 R, 1 BB, 4 K (81 pitches, 51 strikes (63% strikes)) Home Runs: None Bottom 3 WPA: Zebby Matthews (-0.22), Brooks Lee (-0.06), Tristan Gray (-0.05) Win Probability Chart The Twins entered Thursday’s series finale against the Tigers in Detroit looking to secure a series victory. With a win, Minnesota would not only take the series, but also build a much-needed response within the division. Instead, it turned into a rough afternoon from the start. Zebby Matthews took the mound coming off seven strong innings in his previous outing, but the Tigers quickly seized control and never let go, rolling to an 11-0 win that sent Minnesota to another frustrating defeat. The Twins dropped to 31-39 on the season. EARLY OFFENSIVE STRUGGLES SET THE TONE Detroit starter Keider Montero needed just eight pitches to dispatch the top of the Twins’ order in the first inning, setting an early tone of dominance. Trevor Larnach popped out, Byron Buxton popped out, and Kody Clemens struck out to end a quick frame. The only real spark early came in the second inning, when Royce Lewis worked an eight-pitch at-bat and lined a two-out single. Minnesota couldn’t build on it. That pattern repeated throughout the afternoon—brief baserunners, but no sustained pressure. MATTHEWS RUNS INTO EARLY TROUBLE AGAIN The first inning immediately tested Matthews, as Kevin McGonigle ripped a leadoff double that just barely stayed in the park. A sacrifice fly from Riley Greene brought home the game’s first run, giving Detroit a 1-0 lead before Matthews had settled in. He did briefly stabilize, needing just 21 pitches through two innings, but the third and fourth proved costly. In the fourth, Dillon Dingler continued his strong series against Minnesota with a double, and Austin Martin made a highlight-reel diving catch to save additional damage. Still, the Tigers broke through when Colt Keith drove in a run, and Spencer Torkelson launched a two-run homer to left, turning a tight game into a 4-0 lead. Matthews’s efficiency couldn’t mask the damage—he continued to avoid long innings, but the ball kept leaving the yard or finding gaps. It felt like the TGwins gave him strict instructions to keep filling up the zone no matter what, since they needed length from him to reset their bullpen. He did his best, but paid for that approach. TIGERS BREAK IT OPEN WITH THE LONG BALL The fifth inning brought more of the same. Gleyber Torres jumped on a fastball and sent it over the right-field wall for a solo homer, pushing the lead to 5-0. In the sixth, Colt Keith added another blast—this time a no-doubt shot to right-center—making it 7-0 and marking Matthews’s third home run allowed of the day. It was the first dinger Keith had hit all season. Despite pitching efficiently in terms of pitch count, Matthews couldn’t escape the long ball, and Detroit steadily stretched the lead. By the time his outing ended, he had thrown six innings on just 81 pitches, but had allowed seven runs and three home runs in a difficult start. NO ANSWERS OFFENSIVELY The Twins’ offense never found traction against Montero or the Detroit bullpen. A brief seventh-inning rally saw Lewis collect his second hit of the day and Victor Caratini add a single, but Minnesota stranded runners and couldn’t break through. Earlier opportunities were few and far between, and even when they reached base, the Twins struggled to deliver anything resembling a sustained threat. LATE INNINGS TURN INTO A ROUT The game spiraled further in the late innings. After Matthews exited, the Tigers continued to pour it on. Kerry Carpenter added a walk, Riley Greene homered again in the seventh, and Dillon Dingler collected yet another hit in a dominant series. The eighth inning turned into a full-blown avalanche, with Detroit hitting multiple home runs to extend the lead to double digits against position-player pitcher Alex Jackson. The ninth inning came and went quickly, as Lewis struck out looking to end the game, sealing an 11-0 defeat. It was a series that began with opportunity and ended with a lopsided loss, as Minnesota once again struggled to compete within the division. The Twins will head into their next stretch still searching for consistency on both sides of the ball after a day where nothing clicked in Detroit. What’s Next? The Twins return home tomorrow to begin a three-game weekend series against the St. Louis Cardinals. Stopper Joe Ryan toes the rubber for Minnesota, and it’ll be right-hander Kyle Leahy for St. Louis. First pitch is set for 7:10 PM. Postgame Interviews Coming Soon! Bullpen Availability Chart View full article
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It's Time to Start Worrying About Dasan Hill
Sam Caulder replied to Sam Caulder's topic in Twins Minor League Talk
I hear you, but High-A is not filled with 23 and 24-year-olds. I mentioned in the piece that it's far too soon to give up on him, but walking nearly one in every five batters after two months is a problem -
Image courtesy of Malamut Photography (photo of Dasan Hill) The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season without a clear-cut, consensus top-100 pitching prospect anywhere in the organization. That isn't necessarily a criticism of the system. They have several intriguing arms throughout the minors, but none carried the kind of national attention typically associated with elite pitching prospects. The hope, however, was that Dasan Hill would eventually become that guy. After a breakout 2025 campaign that saw him post an ERA in the low 3.00s while striking out 31% of the hitters he faced, Hill looked like one of the most exciting young pitchers in the organization. At 6-foot-5 with a power left-handed arsenal and swing-and-miss stuff, the upside was obvious. If everything clicked, there was a path for Hill to develop into a future frontline starter. Unfortunately, this season has brought far more questions than answers. Through 33 innings with High-A Cedar Rapids, Hill owns a 6.82 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. He's allowed 34 hits and struck out an impressive 53 batters, but those strikeouts have largely been offset by 30 walks. That's where the real concern lies: the command issues are becoming impossible to ignore. Hill's stuff is still gross, there's no denying that. In fact, the bat-missing ability that made him so intriguing in the first place is still very much present. After posting a 31% strikeout rate last season, he's actually increased that number to 33% in 2026. That's an elite figure. But when you're not locating, it doesn't really matter how good the stuff is. Hill's walk rate currently sits at an absurd 18.6%, and he's essentially handing out a free pass nearly every inning he takes the mound. That simply isn't going to work at higher levels of professional baseball, and opposing hitters have clearly figured that out. One of the most telling statistics in Hill's profile this season is his swing rate. Opposing batters are offering at just 40% of the pitches he throws. That's an absurdly low number, especially when considering the quality of his arsenal. For comparison, Taj Bradley (who has been dealing with command issues of his own this season) has a swing rate of 46%. A lot of his misses aren’t remotely close, either, and Hill is still significantly lower than that. Hitters have essentially adjusted their approach. They're forcing Hill to prove he can throw strikes consistently before offering at anything. And until he demonstrates that ability, there's little reason for opposing lineups to become more aggressive. What's even more concerning is that this problem has gotten worse as the season has progressed. Over his last four starts, Hill has issued 14 walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Even if you remove the worst outing from that stretch — the appearance in which he walked six batters while recording only two outs — he's still averaging roughly a walk per inning. At this point, the lackluster command can no longer be written off as early-season rust. We're more than two months into the season, and this has become a very legitimate problem. And that's especially frustrating, because despite the ugly ERA and the alarming walk totals, there are still plenty of things he's doing well. For starters, he's generating ground balls at an extremely strong rate and doing an excellent job limiting extra-base damage. Opponents haven't been consistently squaring him up, which is important context when evaluating a pitcher whose surface-level numbers look this rough. There's also a significant amount of bad luck mixed into the equation. Hill currently owns a .427 batting average on balls in play, which is an outrageously high number. While pitchers certainly have some influence over BABIP, a mark that extreme is not sustainable, even with the worse defense generally played in the minors. Eventually, that number is going to come down, and when it does, his hit totals should improve considerably. Hill will keep missing bats, too. Which means this entire conversation really comes back to one thing: the walks. If he can reduce the free passes and throw strikes more consistently, many of the other issues could begin correcting themselves rather quickly. The problem, of course, is that command isn't something pitchers simply decide to improve overnight, and this isn't exactly a new issue. Ever since the Twins selected Hill in the 2024 draft, command has been the biggest question surrounding his profile. The stuff has always been outstanding, but the ability to consistently locate within the strike zone has remained a work in progress. That's why these struggles are particularly concerning. This isn't a pitcher who suddenly lost command after years of throwing strikes. This is an existing weakness that has gotten even worse. The Twins were hoping he would take a major step this year toward becoming a future ace. Instead, he's spent the first two months raising serious questions about whether he'll be able to stick as a starter long term. Regardless of how much upside is in there, pitchers eventually have to throw strikes; that’s why they’re “pitchers” and not “throwers.” And until Dasan Hill gets that piece under control, he's likely going to remain stuck in the lower levels of the minor leagues. View full article
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The Minnesota Twins entered the 2026 season without a clear-cut, consensus top-100 pitching prospect anywhere in the organization. That isn't necessarily a criticism of the system. They have several intriguing arms throughout the minors, but none carried the kind of national attention typically associated with elite pitching prospects. The hope, however, was that Dasan Hill would eventually become that guy. After a breakout 2025 campaign that saw him post an ERA in the low 3.00s while striking out 31% of the hitters he faced, Hill looked like one of the most exciting young pitchers in the organization. At 6-foot-5 with a power left-handed arsenal and swing-and-miss stuff, the upside was obvious. If everything clicked, there was a path for Hill to develop into a future frontline starter. Unfortunately, this season has brought far more questions than answers. Through 33 innings with High-A Cedar Rapids, Hill owns a 6.82 ERA and a 1.94 WHIP. He's allowed 34 hits and struck out an impressive 53 batters, but those strikeouts have largely been offset by 30 walks. That's where the real concern lies: the command issues are becoming impossible to ignore. Hill's stuff is still gross, there's no denying that. In fact, the bat-missing ability that made him so intriguing in the first place is still very much present. After posting a 31% strikeout rate last season, he's actually increased that number to 33% in 2026. That's an elite figure. But when you're not locating, it doesn't really matter how good the stuff is. Hill's walk rate currently sits at an absurd 18.6%, and he's essentially handing out a free pass nearly every inning he takes the mound. That simply isn't going to work at higher levels of professional baseball, and opposing hitters have clearly figured that out. One of the most telling statistics in Hill's profile this season is his swing rate. Opposing batters are offering at just 40% of the pitches he throws. That's an absurdly low number, especially when considering the quality of his arsenal. For comparison, Taj Bradley (who has been dealing with command issues of his own this season) has a swing rate of 46%. A lot of his misses aren’t remotely close, either, and Hill is still significantly lower than that. Hitters have essentially adjusted their approach. They're forcing Hill to prove he can throw strikes consistently before offering at anything. And until he demonstrates that ability, there's little reason for opposing lineups to become more aggressive. What's even more concerning is that this problem has gotten worse as the season has progressed. Over his last four starts, Hill has issued 14 walks in just 8 1/3 innings. Even if you remove the worst outing from that stretch — the appearance in which he walked six batters while recording only two outs — he's still averaging roughly a walk per inning. At this point, the lackluster command can no longer be written off as early-season rust. We're more than two months into the season, and this has become a very legitimate problem. And that's especially frustrating, because despite the ugly ERA and the alarming walk totals, there are still plenty of things he's doing well. For starters, he's generating ground balls at an extremely strong rate and doing an excellent job limiting extra-base damage. Opponents haven't been consistently squaring him up, which is important context when evaluating a pitcher whose surface-level numbers look this rough. There's also a significant amount of bad luck mixed into the equation. Hill currently owns a .427 batting average on balls in play, which is an outrageously high number. While pitchers certainly have some influence over BABIP, a mark that extreme is not sustainable, even with the worse defense generally played in the minors. Eventually, that number is going to come down, and when it does, his hit totals should improve considerably. Hill will keep missing bats, too. Which means this entire conversation really comes back to one thing: the walks. If he can reduce the free passes and throw strikes more consistently, many of the other issues could begin correcting themselves rather quickly. The problem, of course, is that command isn't something pitchers simply decide to improve overnight, and this isn't exactly a new issue. Ever since the Twins selected Hill in the 2024 draft, command has been the biggest question surrounding his profile. The stuff has always been outstanding, but the ability to consistently locate within the strike zone has remained a work in progress. That's why these struggles are particularly concerning. This isn't a pitcher who suddenly lost command after years of throwing strikes. This is an existing weakness that has gotten even worse. The Twins were hoping he would take a major step this year toward becoming a future ace. Instead, he's spent the first two months raising serious questions about whether he'll be able to stick as a starter long term. Regardless of how much upside is in there, pitchers eventually have to throw strikes; that’s why they’re “pitchers” and not “throwers.” And until Dasan Hill gets that piece under control, he's likely going to remain stuck in the lower levels of the minor leagues.
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Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-Imagn Images Luke Keaschall was one of the Twins' most exciting players entering the 2026 season. After a mini-breakout during his rookie campaign a year ago, it looked like Minnesota had found its long-term answer at second base. Keaschall hit .302 with an .827 OPS last year, showed elite bat-to-ball skills, and looked capable of becoming a fixture near the top of the lineup for years to come. While he certainly still could be, that success has not carried over into this season. Entering Wednesday night's game, Keaschall is hitting just .247 with a .638 OPS. That's a significant drop-off from what he did a year ago, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to chalk it up to nothing more than a slow start. What's especially disappointing is that it looked like he was beginning to turn the corner in May. After struggling through the early portion of the season, Keaschall hit .291 during the month, with seven extra-base hits and three stolen bases. The quality of his at-bats appeared to improve, the results were finally starting to follow, and it seemed like his rough April was simply a temporary bump in the road. Instead, June has brought him right back to where he started. So far this month, Keaschall is hitting just .250 with a .595 OPS. The underlying data doesn’t offer any reassurance, either. His expected batting average sits at just .228, which is notably lower than his already uninspiring .247 mark. Often, struggling hitters can point to bad luck as a reason for optimism. That's not the case here. Additionally, his quality of contact has been absolutely abysmal. His SLGCON, or slugging percentage on contact, sits at just .372. Not only is that comfortably the lowest mark among Twins hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, but it's roughly 180 points below league average. When Keaschall makes contact, there just isn't much damage being done. The rest of the batted-ball profile tells a similar story. His average exit velocity, his barrel and hard-hit rates all sit near the bottom of the league. That's not the profile of someone who is getting unlucky; that's the profile of someone who is consistently getting outmatched. Even the area of his game that has traditionally been his biggest strength has taken a step backward. Keaschall's bat-to-ball data remains solid overall, but it isn't as strong as it was during his rookie season. He's making less quality contact while chasing and striking out more. That's a difficult combination to overcome. All of it has contributed to him finding himself near the bottom of the Twins' lineup more frequently in recent weeks. Could this simply be a sophomore slump? Sure, young players struggle all the time. The league adjusts. Pitchers find weaknesses, and development isn't always a straight line. But we're also more than two-and-a-half months into the season at this point. This is no longer a small sample size, and right now, Keaschall is not helping the Twins at the plate. As someone who was extremely optimistic about Keaschall entering the season, I take no pleasure in saying this, but it's time for the Twins to option him to Triple-A. If he were providing strong defense at second base, perhaps the offensive struggles would be easier to stomach. But that hasn't been the case. Keaschall has been a negative on both sides of the ball, which makes it increasingly difficult to justify keeping him in the lineup every day while the team tries to keep itself afloat in the playoff picture. It's not as if the Twins have shown any hesitation when it comes to optioning players; they've already done it this season with Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner. If the organization believes a player will benefit from a reset, they have shown a willingness to make that move regardless of the player's pedigree. Additionally, I don't think it's a coincidence that the Twins have been giving Lewis opportunities at second base. Part of that undoubtedly relates to Brooks Lee's transition to third base (Lewis’s primary position) and the organization's desire to create defensive flexibility. But if Keaschall were truly succeeding, he wouldn't be losing starts to a hitter carrying a .162 batting average. That tells you something. So who would take Keaschall’s spot if the Twins decide to send him down? Well, there may be an intriguing replacement already waiting. This would be a great opportunity to see where Kaelen Culpepper is at. Promoting Culpepper would require a 40-man roster move, so it wouldn't be a completely simple decision. Somebody would need to come off the roster. Still, there are plenty of reasons why the move makes sense. Culpepper can play second base, shortstop, and third base. He would immediately give Derek Shelton additional flexibility throughout the infield, and defensively, he's been better than Keaschall this season. More importantly, it would allow the Twins to accomplish two goals at the same time. Culpepper would get a chance to experience major-league pitching and begin his transition to the next level. Meanwhile, Keaschall could head to Triple-A, take a step back, work through his struggles in a lower-pressure environment, and rebuild some confidence. That sounds like a win-win scenario. Would optioning Keaschall be popular among fans? Probably not. Nobody likes seeing a young player with this much talent get sent down. But these situations happen all the time. Development is very rarely linear, and sometimes the best thing for a player's long-term future is a temporary step backward. Right now, there isn't a strong argument for keeping Keaschall in the majors when he's struggling offensively, struggling defensively, and still has minor-league options available. Let him get a reset, let him rebuild his confidence, and then let him come back a better player. View full article
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It's Time for the Twins to Send Luke Keaschall Back to Triple-A St. Paul
Sam Caulder posted an article in Twins
Luke Keaschall was one of the Twins' most exciting players entering the 2026 season. After a mini-breakout during his rookie campaign a year ago, it looked like Minnesota had found its long-term answer at second base. Keaschall hit .302 with an .827 OPS last year, showed elite bat-to-ball skills, and looked capable of becoming a fixture near the top of the lineup for years to come. While he certainly still could be, that success has not carried over into this season. Entering Wednesday night's game, Keaschall is hitting just .247 with a .638 OPS. That's a significant drop-off from what he did a year ago, and it's becoming increasingly difficult to chalk it up to nothing more than a slow start. What's especially disappointing is that it looked like he was beginning to turn the corner in May. After struggling through the early portion of the season, Keaschall hit .291 during the month, with seven extra-base hits and three stolen bases. The quality of his at-bats appeared to improve, the results were finally starting to follow, and it seemed like his rough April was simply a temporary bump in the road. Instead, June has brought him right back to where he started. So far this month, Keaschall is hitting just .250 with a .595 OPS. The underlying data doesn’t offer any reassurance, either. His expected batting average sits at just .228, which is notably lower than his already uninspiring .247 mark. Often, struggling hitters can point to bad luck as a reason for optimism. That's not the case here. Additionally, his quality of contact has been absolutely abysmal. His SLGCON, or slugging percentage on contact, sits at just .372. Not only is that comfortably the lowest mark among Twins hitters with at least 100 plate appearances, but it's roughly 180 points below league average. When Keaschall makes contact, there just isn't much damage being done. The rest of the batted-ball profile tells a similar story. His average exit velocity, his barrel and hard-hit rates all sit near the bottom of the league. That's not the profile of someone who is getting unlucky; that's the profile of someone who is consistently getting outmatched. Even the area of his game that has traditionally been his biggest strength has taken a step backward. Keaschall's bat-to-ball data remains solid overall, but it isn't as strong as it was during his rookie season. He's making less quality contact while chasing and striking out more. That's a difficult combination to overcome. All of it has contributed to him finding himself near the bottom of the Twins' lineup more frequently in recent weeks. Could this simply be a sophomore slump? Sure, young players struggle all the time. The league adjusts. Pitchers find weaknesses, and development isn't always a straight line. But we're also more than two-and-a-half months into the season at this point. This is no longer a small sample size, and right now, Keaschall is not helping the Twins at the plate. As someone who was extremely optimistic about Keaschall entering the season, I take no pleasure in saying this, but it's time for the Twins to option him to Triple-A. If he were providing strong defense at second base, perhaps the offensive struggles would be easier to stomach. But that hasn't been the case. Keaschall has been a negative on both sides of the ball, which makes it increasingly difficult to justify keeping him in the lineup every day while the team tries to keep itself afloat in the playoff picture. It's not as if the Twins have shown any hesitation when it comes to optioning players; they've already done it this season with Royce Lewis and Matt Wallner. If the organization believes a player will benefit from a reset, they have shown a willingness to make that move regardless of the player's pedigree. Additionally, I don't think it's a coincidence that the Twins have been giving Lewis opportunities at second base. Part of that undoubtedly relates to Brooks Lee's transition to third base (Lewis’s primary position) and the organization's desire to create defensive flexibility. But if Keaschall were truly succeeding, he wouldn't be losing starts to a hitter carrying a .162 batting average. That tells you something. So who would take Keaschall’s spot if the Twins decide to send him down? Well, there may be an intriguing replacement already waiting. This would be a great opportunity to see where Kaelen Culpepper is at. Promoting Culpepper would require a 40-man roster move, so it wouldn't be a completely simple decision. Somebody would need to come off the roster. Still, there are plenty of reasons why the move makes sense. Culpepper can play second base, shortstop, and third base. He would immediately give Derek Shelton additional flexibility throughout the infield, and defensively, he's been better than Keaschall this season. More importantly, it would allow the Twins to accomplish two goals at the same time. Culpepper would get a chance to experience major-league pitching and begin his transition to the next level. Meanwhile, Keaschall could head to Triple-A, take a step back, work through his struggles in a lower-pressure environment, and rebuild some confidence. That sounds like a win-win scenario. Would optioning Keaschall be popular among fans? Probably not. Nobody likes seeing a young player with this much talent get sent down. But these situations happen all the time. Development is very rarely linear, and sometimes the best thing for a player's long-term future is a temporary step backward. Right now, there isn't a strong argument for keeping Keaschall in the majors when he's struggling offensively, struggling defensively, and still has minor-league options available. Let him get a reset, let him rebuild his confidence, and then let him come back a better player.

