Sam Caulder

What if the next frontline arm in Minnesota is already in the system? Zebby Matthews has the pitch mix, the command, and the quiet confidence that scream breakout starter, and his upside might be even higher than people realize. Let’s talk about why the Twins could be sitting on something special. View full video

I think it's going to have to be Lewis, but health is going to be the key factor there. Outside of those four, you're hoping to get those top few prospects (Jenkins, Rodriguez, Culpepper) up early on, all of whom can contribute

Image courtesy of Raymond Carlin III-Imagn Images For years, the Minnesota Twins have largely played a station-to-station brand of baseball. They’ve relied on power, damage in the gaps, and waiting for the big swing. The Twins have never really built their game around stealing bases; it’s always been more of an afterthought. That could change in 2026. With Derek Shelton stepping in as manager, there’s real reason to believe the Twins are going to force the issue more on the basepaths. Shelton has a reputation for being more aggressive than most managers, and he hasn’t exactly hidden his intentions for the upcoming season. “I think the first thing is, I’m going to build off what happened in September,” Shelton told reporters in the early days of camp. “I really like what happened in September. Ultra-aggressive on the bases. Started to push the envelope a little bit. I think we have to continue on that. That’s proven to be good.” That’s a very clear directive: continue what worked, and put pressure on opponents. So, who can you expect to be aggressive on the basepaths this year? There are a couple of very safe bets to start with, beginning with Byron Buxton. We’ve known about Buxton’s speed for over a decade. Even as injuries have forced adjustments to his game, the speed has never disappeared. Last season, he stole 24 bases without being thrown out once. That’s elite efficiency, and efficiency is what earns a consistent green light. If Buxton is healthy, he’s going to run. It’s that simple. And hitting near the top of the lineup means more chances to turn a walk or single into immediate scoring position. Shelton’s philosophy, paired with Buxton’s track record, feels like a natural match. Then there’s Luke Keaschall, who might have the most upside in this entire conversation. Keaschall stole 14 bases in 49 MLB games last season. He added 11 more in just 28 games at Triple-A before his call-up. The speed translated instantly, but more importantly, the aggressiveness did too. He wasn’t waiting around to see how the league would adjust; he was forcing the issue. Here’s what really stands out: Keaschall has played exactly 162 minor league games in his pro career. In those 162 games, he stole 45 bases on 53 attempts. That’s an 85% success rate over what amounts to a full season. You don’t have to project anything – he’s already shown he can maintain that pace over time. The Twins haven’t had a player steal 40 bases in a season since Ben Revere did it in 2012. Keaschall is the type of player who could end that drought. If he and Buxton are batting one-two, expect movement, and expect action. That alone changes how opposing pitchers operate from the first inning on. The potential uptick doesn’t stop there, though. The next name, however, comes with a major caveat: Royce Lewis. Lewis has never been a high-volume base stealer in the majors. From 2022 through 2024, he stole just six total bases. Then, seemingly out of nowhere, he swiped nine just in the month of September. For his career, he’s 18-for-21 in stolen base attempts. That tells you he’s capable. The instincts are there, and his athleticism is obvious. The question isn’t whether he can run, it’s whether he’ll be healthy enough to attempt it consistently. That’ll be the tricky part. Staying in the lineup doesn’t automatically mean he’s physically able to explode out of a lead and slide aggressively into second. If he’s fully healthy, Shelton could absolutely encourage more attempts. But that hinges on durability. Another intriguing piece is Austin Martin. Martin isn’t likely to be an everyday player, and is not even a lock for the Opening Day roster, but he’s one of the better pure athletes in the team's mix. He stole 11 bases in 50 MLB games last year. Earlier in his minor league career, he swiped 35 bases in 2022, followed by 19 in 2023 and 15 in 2024 before totaling 14 between the minors and majors last season. The attempts have dipped, which likely reflects role more than ability. If he’s used as a platoon option against lefties or as a late-game pinch-runner, Shelton could weaponize him situationally. That’s where aggression can show up in smaller, but meaningful, bursts. And then there’s the pipeline. Emmanuel Rodriguez stole 10 bases in 65 games last season and could see time in the majors this year. Walker Jenkins has the athleticism to contribute on the bases when he arrives. Kaelen Culpepper stole 25 bases on 29 attempts in the minors last season. The larger point is this: the roster will have some speed. It’s just a matter of philosophy. The Twins haven’t been a high-volume stolen base team in recent years. Even when they’ve had individual speed threats, the overall approach has leaned conservative. That’s not necessarily wrong. But in today’s MLB environment, with rules that favor runners and limit pickoff attempts, being selectively aggressive can create a tangible edge. Encourage Buxton and Keaschall to run at the top. Mix in opportunistic aggression from Lewis when healthy. Use Martin strategically. Sprinkle in contributions from Rodriguez, Jenkins, or Culpepper as the season unfolds. It doesn’t require the Twins to suddenly lead the league in stolen base attempts, as they did after the deadline last year. It just requires them to make pitchers uncomfortable and defenses rushed. This feels like the year that could change. Not because the Twins are trying to become the fastest team in baseball, but because the manager and the personnel finally align with a more aggressive style. View full article

In 2026, the Twins could have a secret weapon in Austin Martin. He can play almost anywhere, he gets on base, and he gives the team flexibility that might just be invaluable over a long season. Think of him as Minnesota’s ultimate Swiss army knife. View full video

Marek Houston might not be the biggest name in the Twins’ farm system right now, but that could change quickly. In this video, we break down what he does well, why his skill set matters at shortstop, and how realistic his path to Minnesota actually is. View full video

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Matt Wallner is entering his fifth season on the big-league roster. At this point, we kind of know what he is—and we kind of don’t. He’s spent time in left field and at DH, but the overwhelming majority of his innings have come in right field for the Twins. That’s not by accident. He has an absolute cannon for an arm. According to Statcast, his arm strength ranked in the 99th percentile of all outfielders in 2025. It was 99th percentile in 2024 and 100th percentile in 2023. That gives him real defensive upside, despite the struggles he's had in properly positioning himself and getting to balls fast enough to let the arm play as well as it should. Offensively, it’s been even more of a rollercoaster. In 2025, Wallner hit just .202. That’s the number that jumps off the page, and not in a good way. His on-base percentage was .311, which is respectable for someone barely clearing the Mendoza Line, but when your batting average starts with a “.20,” there’s only so much spin you can put on it. The expected stats don’t bail him out. His expected batting average sat at .205, right in line with the results. This wasn’t a case of screaming line drives right at defenders or terrible luck. He simply didn’t make enough consistent, high-quality contact to deserve much better. It's not exactly a mystery why he struggled; we diagnosed his problems last summer. It’s also not the first time we’ve seen this. In 2024, Wallner broke camp with the team, but hit just .213 with 27 strikeouts in 59 plate appearances before being sent down to Triple-A. That’s understandable if you’re 22, but when you’re 26 (with multiple seasons of big-league time), those stretches feel more significant. To his credit, he responded. After getting called back up in 2024, he hit .272 with 25 extra-base hits over his final 55 games. The swing decisions improved, and the power played better, without him completely selling out for it. That stretch created real optimism heading into 2025. Unfortunately, it didn’t carry over consistently. League-wide offense isn’t what it used to be. A .275 hitter today is basically what a .300 hitter was 30 years ago. Pitchers are better, velocity is up, and bullpens are deeper. Context matters. Still, it's rare to see someone hit around .200 and be a truly impactful everyday player. Yes, there are exceptions. Kyle Schwarber has done it with the Philadelphia Phillies, but he’s also launching 45-plus home runs and posting elite on-base numbers. That’s a different tier of production. Arguably, that's the right road map for Wallner, but for all his bat speed and strength, he hasn't shown the same caliber of in-game power Schwarber has. Wallner’s 2025 pace over 162 games would’ve put him around 34 home runs, which isn’t bad. But if your profile is built around power, 34 feels more “solid” than “game-changing.” That’s roughly one home run every five games. Fellow age-27 Minnesota native Michael Busch hit 34 homers for the Cubs, but he also had a much lower strikeout rate and showed the ability to hit line drives to all fields. If you’re making your living off the long ball the way Wallner does, you’d hope for quite a bit more. Here’s where it gets interesting. There were real signs of progress under the hood in 2025. His strikeout rate dropped to 29%. That’s still not good, but it’s a significant improvement from the 36.4% mark in 2024. Yes, he made more bad contact, thanks to his flatter bat path, and yes, some of the strikeout decrease had to do with being more aggressive early in counts, but for a player with this much pop, being aggressive is ok. The raw power remains very real. His barrel rate stayed comfortably better than average, and his average exit velocity hovered north of 90 mph. Both numbers were lower than in 2024, but that's the cost of making more contact. When he squares it up, it goes a long way. The question is whether he can do so more consistently this season. Health hasn’t helped. Wallner got off to a slow start in 2025, then dealt with a midseason injury that stalled any momentum he was building. For a hitter who thrives on rhythm and timing, that matters. It’s hard to make adjustments when you’re constantly resetting. I want to believe in Matt Wallner. I want to tell you he’s about to put it together and become a 35-homer, .250 hitter with a .350 OBP and a rocket launcher in right field. But I can’t say that with full confidence. Too many signals are garbled, or pointing in the wrong direction. If he can push the batting average back into the .250 range, which he’s flashed before, his profile changes dramatically. A .250 hitter with a 12% walk rate and 30-plus homer power plays. Add elite arm strength (and maybe some better routes, with more experience and instruction) in right field, and now you’re talking about a very valuable player. Maybe the more likely outcome is something frustratingly but usefully in-between. PECOTA projects Wallner to hit .222/.326/.427 in 489 plate appearances this year: not fully available, not fully breaking out, but not struggling the way he did last year, either. There’s a lot of volatility with Wallner. His floor is a streaky power bat who doesn’t make enough contact. But the ceiling is a true impact corner outfielder who changes games on both sides of the ball. That’s why 2026 feels pivotal. If he has another season like last year, it'll be hard to muster much enthusiasm next spring. Indeed, it might be some other fan base doing the mustering by then. View full article

Losing Pablo López leaves a real void in the Twins’ rotation, but it also opens the door for someone to take a leap. Which arms are ready to handle bigger innings, tougher matchups, and real pressure in 2026? In this video, we break down the in-house candidates who could step up and keep this staff from taking a step back. Players mentioned are David Festa, Mick Abel, Taj Bradley, and Connor Prielipp. View full video

The Minnesota Twins may have made one of the more overlooked moves of the offseason when they signed Josh Bell. On the surface, it didn't make a huge splash. But the underlying numbers tell a much more intriguing story. In this video, we break down why Bell’s 2025 profile points to a hitter who could be far more impactful than headlines suggest. View full video

Image courtesy of Image courtesy of John Vittas- Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Connor Prielipp was the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and at one point, he looked like he might go first overall. He’s currently the Twins’ No. 5 prospect and a top-100 overall prospect according to ESPN and Baseball America. On paper, he fits the mold: 6’2”, 210 pounds, left-handed, and armed with multiple swing-and-miss pitches. But his path hasn’t been smooth, and the reason starts early. As a 19-year-old true freshman at the University of Alabama, Prielipp was untouchable. In 21 innings, he didn’t allow a single run. He struck out 35, walked six, and gave up just five hits. It was absurd. At that point, the conversation wasn’t whether he’d be a first-round pick; it was whether he’d go No. 1 overall. Then came 2021. He was limited to seven innings as a sophomore before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Just like that, his trajectory shifted from a fast-rising ace to a rehab project. After recovering from Tommy John, Prielipp made his professional debut in 2023. But after just 6.2 innings, he underwent internal brace surgery to reinforce his surgically repaired UCL. Another setback, and another reset. So before he had even logged meaningful professional innings, he had already endured two significant elbow procedures. That context matters when evaluating everything that’s come since. We finally got a slightly longer look late in 2024. He threw 23.1 innings, 19 at High-A, finishing with a 2.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just seven walks. That looked like the Connor Prielipp the Twins drafted; attacking hitters and missing bats at a high clip. And the advanced numbers supported it. During that 2024 stretch, he posted a swinging-strike rate north of 24% and a CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) around 38%. Those are elite bat-missing indicators, especially for someone working back from major elbow surgery. But the stuff has never been the issue. Prielipp throws a four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup. His fastball typically sits 94-95 mph and can touch 97. It’s a strong pitch, but the slider is the headliner. On the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is league average and 80 is elite, his slider earns a 70. That’s firmly in plus-plus territory, and it’s quite literally one of the best sliders in professional baseball. His fastball carries a 60 grade, and his changeup sits around 55. The underlying data backs those grades up. Last season, he generated a 56% swing-and-miss rate on his slider and a 62% swing-and-miss rate on his changeup when hitters offered. When he’s ahead in the count, he has very legitimate put-away pitches. The overall dominance dipped in 2025. He climbed to Triple-A, throwing 82.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.03 ERA and 98 strikeouts against 31 walks. The strikeouts show the upside, and the stuff still plays. But perhaps most importantly, as Prielipp himself even acknowledged, was staying healthy. "Yeah, like you said, it was a good last year. The main thing for me was just to stay healthy through a full season, and I accomplished that." The concern last season wasn't health-related; it was the 94 hits he allowed and his 1.51 WHIP. A major reason for that was a .394 batting average allowed on balls in play, an extraordinarily high number that’s almost certain to regress. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) sat comfortably lower than his ERA, and his left-on-base rate was under 70%, suggesting some poor sequencing luck. Luckily, improvement doesn’t require a complete overhaul again; it requires tightening command and getting more neutral batted-ball outcomes. Even in 2025, his strikeout-minus-walk profile remained solid, reinforcing that his ability to overpower hitters is very real. But when he misses in the zone, high-level hitters can make him pay. Cleaning up command, especially when ahead in counts, will determine whether he takes another step. One interesting note: he threw his slider roughly a third of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Given his elbow history, that might raise eyebrows since sliders can be taxing. But when you have a 70-grade pitch that generates that many whiffs, it’s hard not to lean on it. In shorter bursts, that pitch could become even more devastating. Which brings us to the bigger question: what is Connor Prielipp long term? When asked about it, he addressed it directly. "So far, I'm told I'm being built up as a starter, so I'm cool with that plan, and we'll see where it goes." 34 of his 35 minor league appearances have been starts. He was drafted as a starter, but between the injury history and the Twins’ rotation depth, it’s fair to wonder if Prielipp's future is in the bullpen. That’s where I personally tend to lean. He’s made just one minor league start where he pitched into the sixth inning. I understand minor league pitchers often work shorter outings, especially while building back up from surgery. But when your average start hovers around three innings, projecting a traditional 180-inning major league starter becomes difficult. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a difference-maker. In fact, he could thrive in a late-inning role. Plenty of elite relievers dominate with two or three pitches. Prielipp has three above-league-average offerings that all move differently and play off each other. The fastball can overpower. The slider can put hitters away. The changeup neutralizes right-handers. In one or two inning bursts, that mix could be electric. He’ll likely open 2026 in Triple-A. But health permitting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the majors at some point during the season, even if it’s a limited look. At this stage, the priority isn’t defining his role; it’s staying healthy and stacking innings. He’s absolutely one of those prospects with massive upside. If everything clicks and his arm holds up, he could anchor the back end of a bullpen, or perhaps carve out a role as a starter. But he’s also the type of arm where, if injuries resurface, we might look back years from now and wonder what could have been. That’s the battle with high-upside pitching prospects. The talent is obvious. The advanced metrics confirm it. Now it’s about durability and refinement. If his left arm cooperates, Connor Prielipp has the tools to be a real impact piece for the Twins someday. And that’s why he remains one of the most fascinating arms in the system. View full article

Gabriel Gonzalez was outstanding in 2025, but with how crowded the Twins outfield is, will he earn a promotion to the big leagues this year? In this video, we take a look at his skill set and what to expect in 2026. View full video

Kendry Rojas dominated the minor leagues last season until he got to Triple-A. In this video, we take a look at whether he can get back to producing like an ace or if he‘ll disappoint in 2026. View full video