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A slow-moving free agent and trade market continues to be the talk of the Winter Meetings, especially at the top end. That part of the market is most likely not in play for the Twins, who usually avoid diving into that tidal wave, and would rather see what washes ashore in the aftermath, so they, too, can only wait and watch. Here’s your Twins Daily dose of information. Image courtesy of © Peter Aiken-USA TODAY Sports While everyone bemoans how little is happening, there's actually some stuff happening. It's just a bit more workaday than we imagine when we think of the annual league convention. Buxton Health Optimism Twins fans know the drill when it comes to their star center fielder. While general optimism is welcome after any positive development, it should be taken with a grain of salt. A healthy Byron Buxton would be about as good of an addition as the club could make this offseason, but there’s a lot of winter to go, and then comes the minefield of spring training. But for what it’s worth, the team is extending some good news when it comes to their cornerstone player, saying he’s showing great signs of recovery after his knee surgery in October. Buxton was spotted in town last week, where he apparently met with surgeon Chris Camp and Twins’ trainer Nick Paparesta. "They felt like he was moving around about as well as they had seen him move around in a long time, which was great," said Twins President of Baseball Operations Derek Falvey. Buxton has now been cleared for all baseball activities, and he’s slated to undergo further evaluation later this week and into next. Could this development affect the club’s pursuit of another option in center field? That seems short-sighted, but this news does dampen the urgency to find an alternative full-time option, however slightly. Michael A. Taylor filled in admirably when thrust into a majority share of that role last year, but his market is also starting to take shape, with a handful of teams showing interest. Again, only time will tell, but the club seems confident that Buxton will be ready to go full-steam ahead when spring training opens in early February, and they confirmed their expectation that he should be in the mix for playing time in center. Relief Market Heating Up The Twins haven’t been linked to any relievers as of yet, but it’s reasonable to expect them to explore the market as the dust begins to settle like they have in years past. It’s highly unlikely that they would make a play for a marquee bullpen ace such as Josh Hader, but they’ll need to supplement their relief corps if they hope to have the same stability that they showed in 2023. That holds especially true after losing Emilio Pagan, who agreed to a two-year contract with the Cincinnati Reds over the weekend. Pagán was second on the Twins in relief appearances, and his rubber arm will be missed, despite some fan skepticism after an up-and-down 2022 campaign. The righty finished the 2023 season with a 2.99 ERA, with 8.4 K/9 and 2.7 BB/9 across 69 ⅓ innings pitched. Looking league-wide, the relief dominoes appear to be falling. Kirby Yates signed a one-year deal with the Texas Rangers, Chris Devenski inked a contract with the Tampa Bay Rays, and a handful of teams have been showing interest in hard-throwing Jordan Hicks. These options are in the mold of player that the Twins could target when they decide to make a move for a bullpen addition, but again, they have a history of waiting until the calendar flips. Expect them to look into modest one-year deals, and even some minor-league deals with invitations to spring training. Rule 5 Draft On Deck It hasn’t been part of this front office’s M.O. to make a selection in the Rule 5 Draft, but they're keeping an open mind (and they have some open roster spots) this year. These selections can be risky, as the player needs to occupy a spot on the team’s 26-man roster (or on the IL) for the entirety of the season if they wish to keep him in the organization. Then again, the only thing ventured is a $100,000 transaction fee. If the player doesn't stick, the Twins can offer the player back to whichever organization they were selected from, and get half that paltry amount back. With 38 men on the reserve list already and some looming logjams, it's still not actually likely that the Twins make a selection. However, they could see the flip-side of that coin. One of their breakout minor-leaguers from the last season, DeShawn Keirsey, Jr., was left exposed at the deadline to protect players by adding them to the 40-man. The 26-year-old center fielder began the year at Double A, where he had the best performance of his professional career, hitting .305/.363/.488 (.850 OPS) with 13 home runs in 91 games played. He was promoted to Triple-A St. Paul, where he continued to impress with his speed and defensive prowess. Keirsey’s player type is generally seen as an ideal Rule 5 candidate, as he is close to MLB-ready, and it’s easier to hide them on the bench or with limited playing opportunity. As a fourth outfielder/pinch runner, Keirsey could appeal to a plethora of teams. Here's hoping the Twins don't come to rue the day they passed him over for protection. Other news and tidbits: Buxton wasn’t the only right-handed hitter who got positive news on the injury front. Infielder Jose Miranda is also said to be showing improvement after a cleanup procedure on his right shoulder, and should be ready for spring training. The Twins once again improved their position in the MLB draft. Even though they finished the 2023 season with the 23rd-worst record, they will instead hold the 21st overall pick in next year’s draft, thanks to some shuffling due to the MLB Draft Lottery, which was held last night. Of course, it’s not as substantial of a jump as last year, where they were awarded the fifth overall pick while having the 13th-worst record. They went on to pick their current No. 1 prospect, Walker Jenkins. The Cleveland Guardians were awarded the first pick in the 2024 draft. What's on your mind as we head down the home stretch of the Winter Meetings? What do you realistically want to see the Twins do before the week is through? Let us know what you think in the comments, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Baseball is very much a team game, but in many cases, a small nucleus of transcendently talented players are the differentiators who elevate championship-caliber clubs. Minnesota has assembled a trio of star players in their primes who've shown they can play at an MVP-caliber level in the majors. But question marks abound for Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis, heading into a pivotal season. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, Matt Blewett, Nick Wosika-USA TODAY Sports Looking back at the most successful teams in recent MLB history, we see how the impact of multiple star players clicking at the same time can carry clubs to new heights. The most recent example is the World Series champion Texas Rangers, who were propelled by a pair of top-three MVP finishers (Corey Seager and Marcus Semien). Teams like the Dodgers, Astros, Phillies, and Braves have, similarly, been elevated by their star power. Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Bryce Harper, Ronald Acuna, Jr., and Matt Olson deliver massive value on the way to 100-plus win seasons and deep playoff runs. Pitching and depth both matter, as we've learned, but the reality is that having multiple everyday players on your roster who put up 5+ WAR can make up for a lot issues elsewhere. This concentrated production also tends to factor more heavily in October, where individual impact is accentuated. The Twins have long worked to build this kind of core, and are hoping it will all come together in 2024. Carlos Correa is entering his age-29 season, Byron Buxton his age-30 season, and Royce Lewis is looking to put in his first full MLB campaign at age 24. The Three North Stars It was always known that these three players could be destined for the tier of true major-league superstars. All were baseball prodigies from a very young age. Correa and Lewis were both No. 1 overall draft picks, and Buxton (No. 2 behind Correa in 2012) would've been the top pick in many other years. The Twins invested heavily to acquire these three–in money, draft capital, or both–and now the franchise has reached a point it's long been building toward: all three are in the majors, in their (ostensible) physical primes, and ready to join forces for a clear contender. Yes, there are question marks surrounding each of the three, as we'll discuss, but let's just look at what they've done when on the field. Here's a rough calculation of each player's fWAR per full season (averaged out for Buxton and Correa, extrapolated for Lewis): Carlos Correa: 4.7 fWAR per 150 games Byron Buxton: 4.2 fWAR per 150 games Royce Lewis: 6.2 fWAR per 150 games At a base level, if all three of these players stay mostly healthy next year and play to these standards of production, you've got a championship-caliber nucleus, plain and simple. Those are All-Star players at three critical positions. If we take one step farther into the realm of optimism, one could envision any of the three contending for an MVP in 2024. Correa wasn't far off from that form in 2021 or 2022. The same can be said for Buxton during that span, when on the field: he amassed 8.1 fWAR in 153 games. Lewis is the least proven, but his potential feels almost limitless, after watching him slug at a 40-homer pace while acclimating to major-league pitching. To whatever extent the clutch gene exists, Lewis has it in spades. That is undeniable. In addition to on-field production and pedigree, all three of these guys are leaders in the clubhouse, with intangible value that magnifies their positive impact. When you take away the injuries, it's easy to see why the Twins and their current front office have placed this trio at the center of their team-building scheme. Of course, you can't take away the injuries. The Elephant in the Room Let's just get it all out there. Correa is coming off the worst season of his career, in which he was plagued by signs of potential age-related regression even beyond the plantar fasciitis that bothered him for much of the season. Buxton's year was a depressing mess, casting doubt on his ability to stay on the field at all going forward, let alone play center field regularly. Lewis has played all of 118 total games over the past four seasons due to a medley of injuries, which extended into his brilliant rookie year. Coming off an 87-win season, it's understandable why many fans are yearning for more star power to be added to the mix this offseason, but that level of help probably isn't coming. The Twins will be focused on using what limited resources they have to replace their pitching losses and replenish their depth. They have little choice but to depend on these three core players as the foundations of their championship vision for 2024–because of the financial commitments they've already made to Correa and Buxton, and because of the ability Lewis has shown. There's an inclination for fans to focus on the negative or the downside in scenarios like these. After all, we've been conditioned to expect the worst when it comes to injury outcomes. But as this quiet offseason unfolds, I urge you to look at the bright side, and to consider the ceiling for the team if it all comes together next year. Reasons to Believe Setting aside the injury baggage, let's remind ourselves of the talent level these three players possess, and the highlights they've produced in big spots over the past few seasons. Is it plausible for all three to realize their top form next year? Here are some points for optimism: Not always, but plantar fasciitis is often an injury that lingers throughout a season before clearing up with extended rest during the offseason. That'll be the hope for Correa, who notably looked excellent in the playoffs after finally tearing the fascia late in the season. La Velle E. Neal III of the Star Tribune reported over the weekend that Buxton is "fully recovered" from his latest knee surgery and preparing for next season with the goal of playing center field. Given what a tough time he's had with the knee, I understand the widespread skepticism, but the team and its trainers are at least implementing a clear plan to address it. These things can take time. You'd like to think Lewis's catastrophic bad breaks are behind him. His twice-repaired right knee looked fully functional after his return this year. Hopefully going through some troubles with the oblique and hamstring helped him learn about managing his body and avoiding soft-tissue injuries going forward. For what it's worth, staying healthy and on the field was never a problem for Lewis prior to the two fluky ACL tears. The Time Is Now for This Twins Trio When Derek Falvey and Thad Levine took over the Twins front office, they inherited the first overall pick in their very first draft. They used it to select Lewis, setting in motion a team-building vision that is now reaching its planned fruition. Along the way, Correa and Buxton joined Lewis as core building blocks, signing two of the largest contracts in team history. This is it. This is what the Twins have been building toward and now we'll see if these three superstar-caliber players can come together and make magic. Down the line, they might be joined or succeeded at this level by the likes of Brooks Lee or Walker Jenkins, who arguably offer the same kind of upside. But for now, look no further than Correa, Buxton and Lewis as the decisive factors in Minnesota's outlook in 2024, regardless of what else happens this offseason. View full article

Every offseason, teams sign long-term deals that lock up players well past their prime. Looking at the current Twins roster, here’s how the team’s worst contracts rank. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports It’s the holiday season, and many shoppers are attempting to find the best deals on the season’s hottest items (Twins Daily even has a gift guide). Teams across baseball are trying to cross items off their own wish lists, but shopping for free agents is sometimes riskier than going for the almost-free big screen on Black Friday. Players are paid on past performance, and some fail to repeat that performance as age and other factors start to play a role. Last week at The Athletic, Cody Stavenhagen ranked baseball’s worst contracts based on what is owed to the player and the expected performance from that player. Some of the worst contracts include Javier Báez, Kris Bryant, and Anthony Rendon. The Twins have their own buyer’s remorse with some of the team’s long-term deals. 4. Christian Vazquez, C Original deal: Three years, $30 million 2024: $10 million 2025: $10 million The Twins had a need at catcher last season, following a poor year from Ryan Jeffers and the departure of Gary Sánchez. The front office quickly targeted Vázquez and signed him to a three-year pact. Trade rumors have surfaced this offseason that have the Twins shipping out veteran players to free up payroll space, but the team would probably need to eat some of the $20 million he is owed over the next two seasons. On Wednesday, Nick discussed Vazquez's value to the Twins, especially with a younger starting staff. According to FanGraphs, Vázquez was worth $7.6 million last season, even though his 65 OPS+ was his lowest total since 2018. The Twins also utilize a two-catcher rotation, which would be less feasible without Vázquez. It doesn't make sense for a team cutting payroll to trade Vázquez when his value is near its lowest point, and they would have to pay down his contract. 3. Randy Dobnak, SP Original deal: Five years, $9.25 million 2024: $2.25 million 2025: $3 million Dobnak’s extension was a strange contract from the moment it was announced, in March 2021. He was coming off a spring training in which he showcased an improved slider that looked like a strikeout weapon. Minnesota bought out his pre-arbitration and arbitration years, and obtained club options on his first three would-be free-agent years. It gave the Twins some cost certainty, but it looks like a poor deal in retrospect. Dobnak is no longer on the 40-man roster, after spending multiple seasons dealing with a finger issue. Last season, he made 31 appearances (26 starts) at Triple-A with a 5.13 ERA, a 1.65 WHIP, and 8.2 K/9. His contract isn’t going to break the bank, but it also wasn’t a move the team was forced to make at the time. 2. Byron Buxton, DH Original deal: Seven years, $100 million 2024: $15 million 2025: $15 million 2026: $15 million 2027: $15 million 2028: $15 million Buxton’s deal didn’t look bad when he signed it, but it has aged poorly over the last year. The Twins signed him as their everyday center fielder, and his damaged knees have limited him to DH duties. From 2021 to 2022, Buxton was worth over $30 million per season, even when averaging 76 games per season. Minnesota can hope that Buxton will return to the outfield at some point, but that's far from certain after not he didn't play a single defensive inning at the big-league level in 2023. His bat will have to carry him through the remainder of his contract, and he’s shown the ability to be one of baseball’s best hitters when he is healthy. In his career, there have only been two full seasons where he has been worth less than $15 million, so there is hope he will bounce back next year. 1. Carlos Correa, SS Original deal: Six years, $200 million 2024: $36 million 2025: $36 million 2026: $31.5 million 2027: $30.5 million 2028: $30 million Correa was named an honorable mention in the original piece at The Athletic because he was only worth 1.4 rWAR in 2023. Twins fans are well aware of Correa’s struggles this season as he dealt with plantar fasciitis. Minnesota hopes Correa can use the offseason to put his injury behind him and return to performing at his previous level. Last week, I wrote about Correa’s first season since signing his big contract and how he impacts the club’s future payroll decisions. Correa and Buxton are tied to the team’s roster through 2028, and nearly $50 million per season is being paid to these two players. Contracts that initially look bad can rebound and look reasonable, especially if Buxton and Correa can return to performing at an All-Star level. Free-agent deals rarely work out in the team’s favor. Clubs pay a premium for the contract's early years and suffer the consequences of declining performance in the back half of the deal. This trend is becoming even more pervasive with big-market teams, as they sign players to 10- to 12-year contracts to spread the money out and avoid paying more in luxury tax. Minnesota isn’t going to approach the luxury tax, so it is even more critical that the front office is spending money wisely on the free market. Do you agree with these rankings? Should Buxton rank higher than Correa? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins had some of the best pitching in MLB this past season. The pitching core carried the team throughout the season, and managed to keep the team around .500 even when the bats weren’t showing up. Now, they need a new core. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports This past week, the club lost two of its most valuable assets on the pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both pitchers had impressive seasons, considering Maeda was returning after an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The club has suffered so long without good pitching, so why would the front office allow such difficult departures? Because it was a part of the plan all along. There have been articles and rumors about the Twins wanting to cut a large chunk of their payroll, and even with keeping Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, the Twin's front office right now has an $88-million dollar payroll, a far cry from the 2023 $154-million Opening Day figure. The front office was well aware that three things would happen: They were going to lose Gray and Maeda, they would need more pitching, and they would need to trade some pieces to obtain new arms. Enter the club options of Polanco and Kepler. The Twins first picked up the options for Polanco ($10 million) and Kepler ($10.5 million), two of the Twins' cornerstone players and a fan-favorite duo. Kepler and Polanco have been a part of the Twins organization for 14 seasons, both signing as international free agents from Germany and the Dominican Republic, respectively. They were roommates in spring training for the 2010 season, forming what has proved to be an unbreakable bond. Naturally, when their options were picked up, fans were relieved and excited, but that’s not the end of the story. Polanco and Kepler are huge trade pieces for the Twins. Both players had their ups and downs in 2023. There are reasons why each is an imperfect fit for the 2024 team, but they each have considerable trade value. Kepler played the entire season, starting slowly in the first half, then finding his stride after the All-Star break. He had his best season since 2019, with 24 homers and a .260/.332/.484 line. Kepler hit in the second half of the season like he knew his job was in jeopardy and he’s still one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but is it enough? Unlike the potential in the infield, the Twins don’t have much immediate help coming in the way of outfielders. With Trevor Larnach being the other option for right field, trading away Kepler would be difficult to justify. The best option would be to bring in someone who would become a full-time outfielder for years to come and be ready to release Kepler after the 2024 season. The infield has some of the best players, and while Polanco is a fantastic, versatile player and a switch-hitter, the club has a lot of young talent that stepped up for the consistently injured veterans--and there is still more at Triple-A St. Paul. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both of whom have been improving and showing why they should get their shot in 2024, are knocking on the door. Polanco only played 80 games in the 2023 season due to a long and strenuous battle with injury, but when he was in the game, he produced at the plate and was able to cover second base and the hot corner. Polanco has another club option for 2025, worth $12.5 million with a $750,000 buyout. So, what’s out there that would allow the Twins to get value for Polanco and not to miss Kepler after his deal is up? Only a few pieces are needed to boost the Twins to where they are looking to be, and they don’t have to go far to find that talent. The Brewers have a lot of talent in their farm system, and some that have seen MLB time and who helped them reach the postseason in 2023. A small-market team with a surfeit of both relief pitchers and outfielders, they make perfect suitors. Based on the Twins’ need to replace so many high-quality innings, someone like Bryse Wilson, a rubber-armed long reliever, would be an excellent acquisition. Wilson, a righty who will turn 26 years old this month, has been in the league since 2018, having been drafted in 2016 by the Braves. He spent his formative years in Atlanta before being traded to Pittsburgh, who flipped him to Milwaukee last winter for a minimal return. Last season, Wilson pitched 76 2/3 innings, with six wins and no losses. One of his best games was a 10-6 win over the Padres late in August, in which he worked four scoreless innings of emergency long relief and struck out four, allowing only three baserunners. Wilson ended his season with some of the best numbers of his career: a 2.58 ERA, a1.10 WHIP, a 4.17 FIP. He’ll make around $1.5 million in his first trip through arbitration in 2024, but he’s a decent bargain at that price. Wilson needn’t be the centerpiece of a trade, though. Joey Wiemer, a loose cannon at the plate and in the outfield, still has a lot of potential and could be a huge acquisition. Weimer is a really strong hitter, but he struggled a lot throughout the season. Looking at his numbers, his best month at the plate was in June (.233/.337/.512) and that gives a small glimpse into what kind of player he is. Even with the poor numbers in July and August, Wiemer crushed it against lefties (.267/.298/.517) through the whole season, which is a huge asset to the lineup. He also has outstanding defensive metrics, with five total Defensive Runs Saved in 1,026 innings as a rookie, showing that he has room to grow offensively and defensively with plenty of years left to play. The Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders may be the blessing the Twins seek. With Kepler being a free agent next year, being 31 years old, and the unknown of Buxton, contributing to the overall inconsistency of the outfield, a player like Weimer could solve many problems for the team. Over at Brewer Fanatic, writer Ryan Pollak even made the case Thursday afternoon that Wiemer will become trade bait. One pipe dream would be to acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade for Polanco. There is still uncertainty as to whether the Brewers are looking to trade Burnes, but based on the information out there, it would take at least $250 million for the Brewers to retain him in free agency after 2024. He’ll make in excess of $15 million via arbitration in 2024, an onerous amount for the Brewers at their expected payroll level The Twins could “rent” him for a year, but the Brewers know what he’s worth, and the package for Burnes would likely include a lot more than Polanco, such as the Twins’ 2024 competitive-balance draft pick or prospects. The front office has been known to shock the fan base in the offseason, so they could shock us again, but it’s more than likely that the Twins would rather hold onto the prospects and trade for controllable assets that would provide long-term solutions, like Wilson and Wiemer. With so many things up in the air, it’s really hard to say which way the Twins front office will go, but one thing for sure is to use Polanco and/or Kepler as trade pieces at some point to get the pitching that they need. It’s all part of the plan. View full article

The Twins have a good roster, but with potentially very little money to spend, as they start preparing for 2024. The Mets happen to be owned by a fellow with a lot of money who loves dynamic outfield prospects. Could a trade of Emmanuel Rodriguez for Pete Alonso make sense? Image courtesy of © Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports The Twins have a real team here. However, they fell short against the Astros, outclassed in their ability to take a professional at-bat. In addition to replacing the likely departing Sonny Gray, the Twins will have to decide whether adding a middle-of-the-lineup bat is worth pursuing. They could, and perhaps should, decide to allow the needed offensive improvement to come from within. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin will hopefully steal at-bats away from whatever middling veterans the Twins sign/retain. They will get a full season from Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Byron Buxton might reemerge, and there isn’t much reason to doubt Carlos Correa’s track record. Maybe we’ll see more of catcher-OPS-leader Ryan Jeffers. Still, that doesn’t sound particularly imposing unless all of those players play to their 85th percentile or so of performance, while all staying healthy. So it might make sense to add an established, durable bat. The problem is, the Twins may not have any money to spend, given their uncertain TV-rights situation. So they would either need to drop significant salary by trading Max Kepler or Jorge Polanco, or acquire a cheaper player that may cost a ransom in prospect capital from their middling farm system. Or maybe there is another way. Steve Cohen is still owner of the Mets, and may have a solution to the Twins conundrum that comes cheap salary-wise, while not costing their entire collection of top 100 prospects. The established bat in question is first baseman Pete Alonso. All five of his seasons have resulted in an OPS+ over 120. His lowest number of games played is 152 (he played 57 in 2020). His career platoon splits are separated by one hundredth of a percent. He has averaged 45 home runs per 162 games for his career, and while that may lead you to believe he is strikeout prone, that isn’t entirely true. His career strikeout rate is below the league average at 22.3% (vs 22.9% for the league). He has had multiple seasons in which he struck out under 20% of the time, pretty impressive for someone with that kind of power. Alonso will be 29 next year, in his final arbitration season. MLB Trade Rumors projects him for a hefty 22M salary. How would the cash-strapped Twins absorb that kind of salary? By trading away a prospect that catches Cohen’s eye. You see, Cohen is obsessed with building up his farm system, and has shown he is okay with throwing tens of millions of dollars to expedite the process, focusing on quality over quantity. He paid the Rangers 64M to take on the last year and a half of Max Scherzer’s contract in exchange for top prospect Luisangel Acuna, and the Astros got another 64M in exchange for Justin Verlander and their best prospect, Drew Gilbert. According to MLB.com, Gilbert ranks as the 52nd best overall prospect, while Acuna ranks 38th. In between them at 48th sits Emmanuel Rodriguez, the Twins’ third best prospect. It would seem to me that Cohen and his new PBO David Stearns, would be interested in acquiring a potential superstar slugger in Rodriguez in exchange for a player they don’t appear to be building around on an expiring salary. Chipping in 15M to make it happen would be pretty on brand, as well. Publicly, the Mets have expressed a desire to keep Alonso, however they were very direct towards Scherzer and Verlander in saying that 2024 will constitute a "competitive rebuild", leading to both pitchers agreeing to a trade. With Alonso a free agent in a year, he should be available. Rodriguez for one year of Alonso is still pretty risky. It's possible the “Polar Bear” would love playing for the Twins and be open to an extension a la Paul Goldschmidt with the Cardinals. But the reality is that any Alonso acquisition would likely be a one year pit stop for the slugger, while Rodriguez could debut as soon as 2024. And Rodriguez may be underrated at 48th best. Other publications have him ranked closer to the top 25, with immense power potential and elite strike zone recognition. His defense probably won’t be a major strength, but he runs pretty well and hit a huge grand slam in Cedar Rapids’ championship-clinching win a month ago. He’s been described as having a Max Muncy-type offensive profile, which paired with any sort of serviceable outfield defense and speed would be hugely valuable. But it probably means a batting average in the .210s, and that’s if things break right. If Rodriguez doesn’t adjust to the league and can’t get to his power, he’ll join a long list of failed power prospects who dominated the minor leagues but just had too many holes in their swing to thrive at the major league level. Brooks Lee is pretty much assured of being at least as good as, say, Gordon Beckham (terrible outcome, but rosterable), while Walker Jenkins could be Bryce Harper for all we know. We know prospects like Rodriguez flame out a lot, regardless of how great the farm system is. Some of the Muncy types make too little contact to matter, like the most recent iterations of Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo. Some guys are too passive at the plate, like the Twins were worried about with Edouard Julien. We also know the Twins have a somewhat similar player to Rodriguez in Matt Wallner, who has shown he can make at least some adjustments in the majors. To be clear, players like Rodriguez should be close to untouchable, but given the Mets' focus on stocking their minor league system with talent quickly, it might make more sense in this moment then it ever has to dangle him for a hitter like Alonso. What do you think? Would you pull the trigger on a trade like this one? View full article

The Minnesota Twins came into the 2023 season with Nick Gordon penned in as their utility man. After being the fifth overall pick during the 2014 draft, he'd finally found his footing at the highest level with a nice 2022 season. The year played out differently than planned, though, and now questions about his future are impossible to ignore. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports When the Twins took Nick Gordon out of high school with the fifth overall pick during the 2014 Major League Baseball draft, they did so hoping the bloodlines from father Tom Gordon and brother Dee Strange-Gordon would produce a high-level big leaguer. It took time for Gordon to mature physically, and he had a few setbacks along the way. Reaching the majors during the 2021 season, he never found a consistent home. Moving off of shortstop full-time as he progressed through the minors, Gordon exhibited positional flexibility. Playing third and second, he also spent time in the outfield. Gordon isn’t nearly as fast as his brother Dee was, but his instincts on the grass played well. When he hit .272 across 136 games last year, we saw the makings of a true asset at the highest level. Concerns for Gordon included a lack of plate discipline and only minimal ability to drive the ball. He did register 28 doubles and nine home runs in 2022, but his 105/19 K/BB needed to be improved. Still, the 111 OPS+ earned him plenty of reason to open on the 26-man roster as Rocco Baldelli’s primary utility player. Even after Minnesota claimed Willi Castro and signed Donovan Solano, there was no reason to believe Gordon’s job was in jeopardy. Just 34 games into his season, Gordon fouled a ball off his right shin and wound up with a fracture. That injury sidelined him the rest of the season, and despite working back with a group that included Chris Paddack, Jorge Alcala, and Byron Buxton, Gordon’s body didn’t allow him to get major-league game action after appearing in six games for the Saints. Now eligible for arbitration for the first time in his career, Gordon’s projected figure checks in at only $1 million. That’s only a nominal amount over the major league minimum, so many isn't the issue as far as bringin him back. Where he fits going forward is a question, though. Even if Gordon was still a shortstop, and he isn’t, Carlos Correa is the Twins' answer. Jorge Polanco is back to play second base alongside Edouard Julien, and first base isn’t an option for Gordon. Royce Lewis plays third base; Max Kepler and Matt Wallner will occupy the corners. Gordon played well in center field and certainly could rotate in for a healthy Buxton, but banking on that isn’t a good plan, and Minnesota will be looking for a Michael A. Taylor-caliber starting-level replacement. Beyond just starting roles, things got even more cloudy when Castro popped up with a 106 OPS+ and played better defensively. He’s also two years younger, and while projected to be slightly more expensive, the floor is arguably safer. Gordon looks the part of a major-league talent, but finding a fit with the Twins seems complicated. That all but necessitates a trade, and he should have an allure to a handful of organizations. While plenty of teams have players who can fill fringe roles, Gordon has shown he can do it at the highest level, and it comes at a cost that would rival the promotion of any prospect. With dollars always looking to be stifled at the back end of active rosters, Gordon is the perfect type of asset to round out a lineup or allow for a more significant contract elsewhere. Plenty of teams look to limit spending on a yearly basis, and Gordon, representing a straightforward opportunity to do that while still having starting chops, could be a selling point. Expecting a sizable return for Gordon would be misguided. Regardless of his former prospect or draft status, that isn’t happening. He could net a nice flier or bullpen arm, though, and the Twins may be inclined to see if that type of return is something they have an interest in. What do you think? Will Nick Gordon stay with the Twins during the 2024 season? View full article

The Twins are cutting and potentially slashing payroll this winter. While this will undoubtedly result in a rightfully negative response, it will create opportunity. Which players stand to benefit from the Twins reducing payroll? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports If the reports hold that the Twins are attempting to cut payroll from over $150m in 2023 to $125-140, the expectations for activity this offseason can be lowered significantly. The downside of this is obvious. The Twins likely can’t afford to bring in a proven slugger like Rhys Hoskins for first base. Safer Sonny Gray replacements, such as Eduardo Rodriguez or Aaron Nola, can be all but written off. There will be plenty of negativity around this news, and it’s all warranted. However, the payroll reduction will create opportunities for some players within the organization, likely the sole positive of pulling back on spending. Austin Martin With center field as one of the primary needs this offseason, Martin could be part of the solution. It would be great to sign Kevin Kiermaier or bring back Michael A. Taylor, but these names may price themselves out of the Twins' plans due to requiring multiple years or a one-year deal at a premium. Willi Castro became a passable center fielder in 2023, and they still hope that Byron Buxton will return to the field at some point. Austin Martin would be the fallback option, undoubtedly getting a big chance to stick in 2024 if everything stays the same. Martin slashed .263/.386/.405 in St. Paul last season, and the Twins are high on his ability to handle center. He stole 16 bases in 59 games, and his six homers were the most he’s hit in a season in professional ball. Martin’s skill set would be a great complement to the Twins' lineup with his ability to get on base and lack of strikeouts, and he could even become a platoon leadoff hitter against lefties if everything breaks right. Yunior Severino Even after Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder injury proved less significant than initially thought, the Twins likely need more confidence in the former top prospect’s ability to lock down first base for 2024. A right-handed option to platoon is a reasonable ask to insulate the position. Such a role may be less of a priority with limited funds available. Severino has little to prove after leading the minors with 35 homers in 2023. He got off to a rough start in his Triple-A debut but finished with a slash line of .233/.320/.511, and the Twins saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster after the season. Severino is a strikeout-prone light tower power hitter with a defensive profile likely to slot in best at first base. His ability to switch hit makes up for some of his lack of versatility, and he could carve out a career for himself as an all-or-nothing slugger capable of being a legitimate offensive weapon when he’s running hot. At 24 years old, Severino’s time may come in 2024, as the first call-up should Alex Kirilloff miss more time. Jair Camargo To combat the financial limitations, the Twins may not only spend less but look to shed salary from places they can afford to add elsewhere adequately. Should they decide to do so, Christian Vazquez becomes a prime candidate to ship out to another team. After not appearing in a single postseason game, it’s obvious Vazquez is the backup to Ryan Jeffers, and his total collapse offensively in 2023 makes him more replaceable despite his still great defense. Camargo profiles as a perfect backup catcher: He spent all of 2023 in St. Paul, hitting .259/.323/.503 with 21 homers in 90 games, he has received solid reviews on his defense and pitch calling, and his raw power gives him enough of a floor to be an asset to an MLB squad for several years. Camargo would likely debut in 2024 regardless after being added to the 40-man. Trading away an MLB catcher may push him onto the Opening Day roster. The Twins have internal options should they slash payroll, as in addition to the listed names above, they have several other young players on their way. Deshaun Kiersey Jr. may create a strong career for himself in center field. Several pitchers, such as David Festa, could see an earlier debut should the Twins shop in the bargain bin to replace Sonny Gray. At least with the deflating news comes the excitement of young players potentially debuting. Are there any other internal options that stand to benefit from the payroll decrease? Let us know below! View full article

Contending teams must have a solid baseline to their roster entering the offseason. Usually, this includes a solid group of veterans with young, up-and-coming players ready to take on a more critical role. How does the Twins roster rank compared to the rest of baseball? Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Last season, there were strong teams in both leagues, with three teams winning 100 games or more. The Twins finished at 87-75, enough to win the AL Central by nine games, but it was the lowest win total of any division winner. Before free agency starts, clubs must evaluate their own roster and decide on their individual needs. FanGraphs and MLB.com combined resources to compile a list of the best rosters entering the offseason. As part of these rankings, Mike Petriello used FanGraphs’ depth charts and projects to find each team’s highest needs while ranking the clubs based on their current roster. Here’s a look at how the Twins ranked and some other questions facing the club this winter. How High Do the Twins Rank? Honestly, I clicked on the article and thought the Twins would rank in the middle of the pack. So I was surprised to see that MLB.com ranked the Twins as the sixth-best roster (41.3 WAR) entering the offseason. The teams ranking higher than the Twins are the Braves (51.4), Astros (46.6), Rays (45.9), Blue Jays (42.2), and Dodgers (41.5). It’s an interesting list of teams ahead of the Twins, with three teams winning 99+ games last season and the other two being Minnesota’s playoff opponents from last season. Also, the Twins are less than 1.0 WAR from moving into fourth place. Overall, it is an exciting place to start the winter, but there are other questions to answer. How Will the Twins Replace Sonny Gray? The Twins aren’t re-signing Gray, so the club must look into other options to fill his pivotal role at the top of the rotation. Internal options exist to recoup some of Gray’s lost value, including Chris Paddack and Louie Varland. However, neither of these pitchers is expected to perform at a Cy Young caliber level, and the Twins will want at least one more playoff-caliber starter. Last winter, the club traded for Pablo Lopez and developed him into one of the league’s best pitchers. The front office is expected to attempt to trade from the club's position player depth to improve the rotation. How Can the Twins Fill Holes in Center Field and First Base? According to FanGraphs ' depth chart and projections, center field and first base are the club’s other needs. Byron Buxton didn’t log a single inning in center field last season, and Michael A. Taylor is heading to free agency. The Twins have been rumored to be interested in Kevin Kiermaier, an elite defensive player, but he comes with his own injury history. There is a chance the Twins could turn center field over to a prospect like Austin Martin or DaShawn Keirsey, which likely wouldn’t happen until later in the season. The Twins received positive news regarding Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder surgery, giving hope that he can fully recover and produce at the big-league level. He’s missed significant time in recent seasons with various injuries, so his inclusion in the line-up is not guaranteed. Minnesota can try to work Jose Miranda back into the mix at first base after he missed time with his own shoulder injury. Another option is to give Edouard Julien more time at first base, which seems like an appropriate adjustment for his sophomore season. Where Do the Other AL Central Teams Rank? Based on current rosters and projections, the Twins are the odds-on-favorites to win the AL Central. Cleveland, 15th overall, is the closest team to Minnesota in the rankings and sits 4.4 WAR behind the Twins. Detroit finished ahead of Cleveland last season, but the Tigers rank 23rd with a 31.7 WAR. The Royals (26th) and the White Sox (29th) rank among the baseball’s bottom five teams, with the Rockies being the lone team with a worse WAR than Chicago. The Twins should easily win a second consecutive division title in MLB’s worst division. How Does Payroll Dropping Impact These Projections? Last week, reports surfaced from the GM meetings that the Twins payroll is expected to be $15-30 million below last season’s $155 million total. The team’s current revenue tied to its TV deal is in flux for next season, which is the biggest reason for the decrease in spending. Minnesota will likely trade away veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer to clear some money off the books. With less veteran depth, the Twins will likely see their projected WAR drop unless they improve their starting pitching. What are your thoughts on these rankings? Do the Twins have a top-10 roster entering the offseason? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins will have some internal decisions to make this offseason, and as they look to restructure their 40-man roster, some players will be pieced out in trades. One that seems likely and potentially valuable is Trevor Larnach. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota drafted Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were still getting their feet wet in the front office, and while Sean Johnson was still in charge of the draft, Larnach’s selection indicated a new direction. This current regime has leaned into college hitters with impressive exit velocities. As those sustain at the next level and give major league organizations something to work with, a player from a National Championship team in Oregon was plenty to get excited about. Three years into his big-league career, Larnach squeaked onto the Opening Day roster in 2023 but had been trending towards Triple-A for most of the spring. The one-time top-50 prospect had a .708 OPS through 47 games to start the season but got only brief stints in June and July while searching for his missing power. Despite being able to punish the baseball, Larnach’s game power has translated into just 20 dingers across his first 188 career games. Due to his inability to handle off-speed pitches at times, Larnach's lack of slugging prowess has held him back. When Joey Gallo went down late in the year for Rocco Baldelli’s Twins, it was Larnach who again got an opportunity. From the end of July to early September, Larnach had a .536 slugging percentage for the Saints, hitting seven home runs in a stretch of 38 games. The Twins were looking for that, and they were hoping it would finally translate. Filling in as Minnesota headed toward the postseason, Larnach drew starts in just four of eight games. Despite the sporadic playing time, he brought the power from St. Paul. Two of his four hits left the yard, and he doubled in a third. With a 5/3 K/BB, he showed solid plate discipline while stinging the ball when putting it in play, albeit in a small sample. There wasn’t much indication that Larnach would be on the postseason roster, even with Byron Buxton out of the equation. He is a corner outfielder blocked by both Max Kepler and Matt Wallner. That resembles much of the same situation Minnesota will find this offseason, with Kepler’s option already picked up. Although some luster has worn off for a soon-to-be-27-year-old, Larnach could be a late-bloomer, not yet arbitration-eligible until 2025. In dealing Larnach, Minnesota would be moving on from a position of surplus. The outfield corners are ripe with options for the Twins, and a major league-ready talent could be sold as a high-floor breakout candidate if the pitch is correct. Sending Larnach out in a deal isn’t going to result in a blockbuster, and he won’t be the cornerstone of something massive. He does represent much more than a throw-in, though, and the team control he comes with could be appealing to plenty of suitors. Whereas the idea of trading for a young high-ceiling prospect like Yasser Mercedes may be titillating due to what you could dream on, Larnach is a more of the realized version with an opportunity to blossom. Ultimately, Larnach represents an ideal candidate to be moved by Minnesota this winter, and freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster by adding a more necessary talent is enticing. Sometimes draft picks and prospects are about future capital, and while Larnach wouldn’t be playing to his potential in the organization he initially joined, cashing in on him in the form of another provides a lengthened arc for the story. What do you think? Is Trevor Larnach in the Twins organization on Opening Day in 2024? What type of return do you see him bringing back? View full article

No position has more question marks around it for the Twins than center field. Byron Buxton has undergone a surgical knee repair once more, but leaving his CF outlook hazier than ever. Even if he does return, how long can he keep playing out there? Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Michael A. Taylor made himself a standout for the Twins in Buxton’s absence this season. In the scenario that he doesn’t re-sign, the internal organizational options don’t pan out as well as having a semi-healthy Buxton or a returning Taylor. Willi Castro proved himself useful as a backup and left-handed hitting platoon in center with Taylor. But he would be very stretched as a starter and the Twins value his versatility. Then there’s Austin Martin. Martin ended the season strong with the St. Paul Saints and has set himself up well to make his MLB debut in 2024. But he’s still a player who doesn’t need to be rushed and still has elements of his game to iron out. It’s hard to see him arriving before Memorial Day, at least as a full-time option, unless injuries force the front office’s hand. Another option is Nick Gordon, who missed the majority of the 2023 season with a broken tibia. While Gordon looks to be healthy, his future with the organization is in question as Castro has overtaken him in the pecking order as the team’s super-utility man. Gordon is arbitration eligible and out of options, which doesn't help his case. Royce Lewis may be another option in center this upcoming season too. However, for now the Twins and Lewis both seem to be opposed to a return to the outfield, after his last start in center ended with a torn ACL. While he did remain healthy with his knees upon his return on Memorial Day this season, Lewis still experienced some leg issues during the season, including a hamstring strain that forced him to finish on the IL. There are many who still believe his best-fit position is center field, but it’s possible Lewis remains on the infield to ensure longevity in playing time versus risking another injury that puts him out for a long while. Removing Lewis as an option in center, that leaves Castro as the only man currently on the Twins' outfield depth chart that can hit from the right side of the plate. And the last thing the Twins outfield needs is another left-handed hitter, which makes a reunion with Taylor, or a signing like Kevin Kiermaier or Harrison Bader, the best outfield options in free agency. If payroll limitations price these higher-end free agents out of Minnesota's range, there are some lower-tier right-handed hitting center fielders that can work as a one-year deal, platoon options alongside Castro, Martin, or Lewis. Kevin Pillar, Jake Marisnick, and even former Twin Aaron Hicks are all suitable fallback options if Taylor signs elsewhere. Pillar played in 81 games with the Braves this last season. The Braves used him more frequently as a defensive option than for his offense, as he slashed .228/.248/.416 in 206 plate appearances. Pillar would remain that defensive-first, bat-second option to keep things afloat until the Twins line up their primary center fielder. Marisnick played less than Pillar, showing up in 46 games between the White Sox, Tigers, and Dodgers this year. Marisnick had a .228/.248/.416 triple slash in 83 plate appearances. The limited playing time and injuries this season do show a decline in his performance, but Marisnick will only be 33 and has shown the ability to mash lefties. Speaking of players who showed they still have something left in the tank, former Twin Aaron Hicks. After being released by the Yankees on May 26th, Hicks revitalized his career with the Orioles on May 30th. Hicks played in only 65 of the remaining 106 games on the season but he had his best stretch of games at the plate since 2018. Hicks posted an .806 OPS in 236 plate appearances with the Birds. The switch-hitter has always been more effective swinging from the right side, and that was definitely true in 2023. He may not be the player he once was, but he’s likely the best fallback of this group if the Twins miss out on the top CF names in free agency. It bears noting that Hicks rarely played center down the stretch in Baltimore, more often starting in the outfield corners. The offseason is still young and the options in centerfield outside of Buxton are still plentiful. However, with the Twins likely to move slow and facing payroll constraints, it behooves us to become familiar with the lower tier of free agents. View full article

Michael A. Taylor was an adequate center field replacement for Byron Buxton during the 2023 regular season. The Twins will need to find another center field backup plan for the 2024 season, with Taylor becoming a free agent. Should the Twins look to Harrison Bader to fill that role? Image courtesy of Sam Greene/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Most who follow the Twins have an unwavering appreciation of Byron Buxton, as evidenced by the standing ovation he received during his sole at-bat during the 2023 ALDS against the Houston Astros. In an ideal world, Buxton would be healthy enough to play 130 or more games annually, patrolling center field at a platinum-glove level while also being a power-hitting cog in the top half of the Twins lineup. Unfortunately, that is not the world we live in. In seasons past, the Twins front office would ignore this reality. Instead of investing resources into above-average backup center fielders like Kevin Pillar, Jackie Bradley Jr., or Jake Marisnick, who could step into a starting role fairly seamlessly, the Twins opted for replacement-level players such as Jake Cave, Rob Refsnyder, and Gilberto Celestino. The Twins also used to shift Max Kepler from right field to center field whenever Buxton had to miss games, but that is no longer a viable option either. Finally, the front office invested in a reliable center field contingency option when they traded for former Kansas City Royals starting center fielder Michael A. Taylor last January. The initial plan was for Taylor to be the Twins' fourth outfielder, but he quickly became the everyday center fielder. In his first and potentially lone season with the Twins, Taylor hit .220/.278/.442 (.720) with a 96 wRC+, 1.7 fWAR, and a career-high 21 home runs in 388 plate appearances over 129 games played. The MLB average for wRC+ among centerfielders during the 2023 season was 98, so Taylor was a relatively average center fielder offensively, which matches the eye test. He also made two incredible defensive plays during the postseason, most notably saving Twins reliever Louie Varland from giving up an RBI extra-base hit to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman in Game 1 of the American League Wild Card Series. Nevertheless, Taylor fit in well and performed much better than the Caves, Refsnyders, and Celestinos of seasons past. Taylor is an unrestricted free agent this offseason. While the Twins could bring him back, there is reason to believe Taylor might not perform as well as he did in 2023, leaving the Twins with yet another below-average Buxton replacement. If the Twins elect to move on from Taylor, there is a younger free agent centerfielder with more upside the Twins could sign in Harrison Bader. After making his debut with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2017, Bader spent four more seasons with the Cardinals before getting traded to the New York Yankees for left-handed starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery during the 2022 Trade Deadline. Bader became the Yankees' primary center fielder before struggling with injuries during the 2023 season. Eventually, the Yankees waived Bader during the unprecedented roster max exodus performed by the Angels, Yankees, and other teams, and the Cincinnati Reds claimed him off waivers. Bader finished the 2023 season with the Reds, hitting .161/.235/.194 (.429) with five hits, one double, and zero home runs over 34 at-bats. Bader generated just a 15 wRC+ during his time in Cincinnati. Admittedly, Bader's numbers to end the season are uninspiring, but none of the players claimed off waivers post-trade deadline performed well. The real Bader, we hope, lies in his 2022 and early 2023 performances with the Yankees. Here are Bader's numbers with the Cardinals and Yankees in 2022 and before he was waived in 2023: 2022 - Cardinals, Yankees - .250/.294/.356 (.650), 313 PA, 73 hits, ten doubles, five home runs, 17 stolen bases, 19.8% K%, 4.8% BB%, .106 ISO, 85 wRC+ 2023 - Yankees - .240/.278/.365 (.643), 310 PA, 69 hits, 11 doubles, seven home runs, 17 stolen bases, 18.1% K%, 4.5% BB%, .125 ISO, 76 wRC+ Neither Bader's 2022 or 2023 season performances are encouraging, but once context is provided, Bader's lackluster numbers and intrigue begin to make more sense. First, Bader performs best when used in a platoon role. He struggles mightily versus right-handed pitching but hits left-handed pitching very well. Here are Bader's platoon splits with the Yankees in 2023: Versus Left-Handed Pitching - .343/.392/.687 (1.079), 74 PA, 23 hits, seven doubles, four home runs, five walks, 12 strikeouts Versus Right-Handed Pitching - .208/.243/.267 (.510), 236 PA, 46 hits, four doubles, three home runs, nine walks, 46 strikeouts Bader is below average when facing right-handed pitching, but he performs like an elite hitter against left-handed pitching. Also, Bader is a truly elite defensive centerfielder. Here are Bader's defensive metrics according to Baseball Savant: 95th-Percentile Range (OAA) 82nd-Percentile Arm Value 91st-Percentile Arm Strength 85th-Percentile Speed Taking Bader's formidable plate presence when facing left-handed pitching and adding to his premium defensive prowess in center field and immense speed, he becomes one of the best platoon players in baseball. Now, after taking this information in, you are probably thinking to yourself something along the lines of, "Aren't Taylor and Bader essentially the same player?" And, while reasonable to think, the difference between Taylor and Bader lies in their potential for the 2024 season. Bader (29) isn't much younger than Taylor (32) and he has a history of getting hurt year after year. But, as evidenced by his elite defensive center field prowess and plus base-running abilities, Bader provides higher-upside than the known commodity who is likely to regress in Taylor. The Twins have internal options in Willi Castro, Nick Gordon, Austin Martin, and DaShawn Keirsey, who could patrol centerfield if Buxton cannot. Still, it would be malpractice for a team hoping to make a deep playoff run to rely on players better used in utility roles in Gordon and Castro or an inexperienced player like Martin or Keirsey Jr. to start at what is one of the most vital positions in the sport. With this being recognized, signing a veteran right-handed hitting center fielder like Bader or Taylor to, at the very least, platoon with Gordon or Castro would be in the Twins' best interest. While there are more attractive free agent centerfield options in Cody Bellinger, Kevin Kiermaier, and Lee Jung-hoo, Bader is still an intriguing centerfield option with more upside than Taylor. Keith Law of The Athletic predicts Bader will net a one-year "prove it" deal worth $5-6 million. Fellow The Athletic writer Jim Bowden is essentially on the same page, predicting Bader will get a one-year, $8 million contract. With the announcement of the Twins planning to cut their payroll by $20-30 million this upcoming offseason, signing Bader to a one-year deal worth $5-8 million is one of the few places the organization could realistically spend money to improve the 26-man roster. Bader is a low-risk, high-reward platoon bat that the Twins could partner with Gordon, Castro, Martin, Keirsey, or, if the Twins are ever so fortunate, a healthy enough to play centerfield Buxton. Also, it is believed the Twins put in a claim on Bader when the Yankees waived him, so it is reasonable to think the Twins will express interest in him this offseason. Should the Twins sign Bader? Do you prefer Bader or Taylor? Do you think Bader would work well in a platoon with Gordon, Castro, Martin, or Keirsey? Comment below. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have signed players to a number of precedent-shattering contracts in the past few years. Let's take a look at how these long-term commitments might affect their ability to pursue other big-time deals this offseason. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009. Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million). These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were. Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option): In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.) So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit. The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration. Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60). The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25. This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely. But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility. Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason. If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter. View full article

The Minnesota Twins need a quality starter in centerfield. There is no way around it. Image courtesy of © Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports They prefer a healthy Byron Buxton for most of a 162-game schedule, but a healthy Byron Buxton available for most of a 162-game schedule has yet to present itself. How can they recapture the magic of Michael A. Taylor in 2024? When the Minnesota Twins extended Byron Buxton, they knew what they were getting: An elite talent when on the field, but a growing unknown how often that would be each season. His 92 games played in 2022 was the second-highest total of his career, and he has reached the 100-game milestone once in his career. Therefore, having someone available to compensate for an extended absence in centerfield is a must. Over the years, Minnesota has tried to make a patchwork plan fit. Gilberto Celestino, Jake Cave, Nick Gordon, Rob Refsnyder, and others played substantial time at center, but none adequately played the part. If Buxton was reliable for 120 or more games, a quality backup may suffice in his absence. Realizing that hoping and wishing can't be the plan, Derek Falvey addressed the situation for the first time last winter. When they acquired Michael A. Taylor from the Kansas City Royals in exchange for Evan Sisk and Steven Cruz, the Twins not only brought in a player to supplement Buxton but one that could conceivably start instead of him. Taylor has left plenty to be desired offensively throughout his career, but he's a Gold Glove talent in the field and has had stretches of decent production at the dish. Taylor proved to be worth every penny. He played in 129 games for Minnesota this year, and he would have been in Rocco Baldelli's lineup more if not for a late-season injury. Buxton never saw the field for the Twins, meaning it was Taylor's job to cover the centerfield grass nightly. Beyond that, his 94 OPS+ was the second-highest output of his career. He blasted a career-best 21 homers, and without another proper centerfield option on the roster, his presence was not only welcomed but necessary. A free agent this offseason, for the 33-year-old Taylor, replicating his 2023 is unlikely. He followed his career-best 104 OPS+ in 2017 with a 69 OPS+ the year after. He did have a 90 OPS+ in 2022 with the Royals but posted just a 74 OPS+ from 2018-2021. For the sake of continuity, Minnesota may opt to reunite with a known commodity, but it will likely come at a higher cost than the $4.5 million he made a year ago. If they want to replace him, getting it right is imperative. Similarly to someone like Donovan Solano, finding another option to fill a utility role in the starting lineup isn't an incredible proposition. Doing so with the right mix of cost and output in hopes of replicating the Taylor or Solano level of success is more complex. The Twins will have the free agent market to explore, and this front office has also shown an affinity towards trades. The answer probably isn't immediately within the organization. Spending on a player like Cody Bellinger isn't part of the Twins' plan. They could opt for Kevin Kiermaier, but he's the only real option in free agency outside of Taylor himself. Aaron Hicks isn't returning, and neither Kevin Pillar nor Harrison Bader can be regulars on a serious contender. It would be asking a lot of Austin Martin to step up immediately, and it doesn't appear the Twins are interested in moving Royce Lewis off of the dirt. For now, the plan for center is unknown. It would be great if Buxton responds well to his latest knee surgery and ultimately takes time away from whomever the front office brings in, but that can't and won't be the expectation. Falvey executed well in dealing for Taylor, and he found everything necessary in an alternative option. Replicating that success will be challenging, but Minnesota must get it right. With a position so important to any roster, especially this one, the Twins can leave no stone unturned. View full article