Sam Caulder

Image courtesy of Image courtesy of John Vittas- Fort Myers Mighty Mussels Connor Prielipp was the 48th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, and at one point, he looked like he might go first overall. He’s currently the Twins’ No. 5 prospect and a top-100 overall prospect according to ESPN and Baseball America. On paper, he fits the mold: 6’2”, 210 pounds, left-handed, and armed with multiple swing-and-miss pitches. But his path hasn’t been smooth, and the reason starts early. As a 19-year-old true freshman at the University of Alabama, Prielipp was untouchable. In 21 innings, he didn’t allow a single run. He struck out 35, walked six, and gave up just five hits. It was absurd. At that point, the conversation wasn’t whether he’d be a first-round pick; it was whether he’d go No. 1 overall. Then came 2021. He was limited to seven innings as a sophomore before undergoing Tommy John surgery. Just like that, his trajectory shifted from a fast-rising ace to a rehab project. After recovering from Tommy John, Prielipp made his professional debut in 2023. But after just 6.2 innings, he underwent internal brace surgery to reinforce his surgically repaired UCL. Another setback, and another reset. So before he had even logged meaningful professional innings, he had already endured two significant elbow procedures. That context matters when evaluating everything that’s come since. We finally got a slightly longer look late in 2024. He threw 23.1 innings, 19 at High-A, finishing with a 2.70 ERA and 41 strikeouts against just seven walks. That looked like the Connor Prielipp the Twins drafted; attacking hitters and missing bats at a high clip. And the advanced numbers supported it. During that 2024 stretch, he posted a swinging-strike rate north of 24% and a CSW% (called strikes plus whiffs) around 38%. Those are elite bat-missing indicators, especially for someone working back from major elbow surgery. But the stuff has never been the issue. Prielipp throws a four-pitch mix: fastball, slider, sinker, and changeup. His fastball typically sits 94-95 mph and can touch 97. It’s a strong pitch, but the slider is the headliner. On the 20-80 scouting scale, where 50 is league average and 80 is elite, his slider earns a 70. That’s firmly in plus-plus territory, and it’s quite literally one of the best sliders in professional baseball. His fastball carries a 60 grade, and his changeup sits around 55. The underlying data backs those grades up. Last season, he generated a 56% swing-and-miss rate on his slider and a 62% swing-and-miss rate on his changeup when hitters offered. When he’s ahead in the count, he has very legitimate put-away pitches. The overall dominance dipped in 2025. He climbed to Triple-A, throwing 82.2 innings across Double-A and Triple-A with a 4.03 ERA and 98 strikeouts against 31 walks. The strikeouts show the upside, and the stuff still plays. But perhaps most importantly, as Prielipp himself even acknowledged, was staying healthy. "Yeah, like you said, it was a good last year. The main thing for me was just to stay healthy through a full season, and I accomplished that." The concern last season wasn't health-related; it was the 94 hits he allowed and his 1.51 WHIP. A major reason for that was a .394 batting average allowed on balls in play, an extraordinarily high number that’s almost certain to regress. His fielding independent pitching (FIP) sat comfortably lower than his ERA, and his left-on-base rate was under 70%, suggesting some poor sequencing luck. Luckily, improvement doesn’t require a complete overhaul again; it requires tightening command and getting more neutral batted-ball outcomes. Even in 2025, his strikeout-minus-walk profile remained solid, reinforcing that his ability to overpower hitters is very real. But when he misses in the zone, high-level hitters can make him pay. Cleaning up command, especially when ahead in counts, will determine whether he takes another step. One interesting note: he threw his slider roughly a third of the time, more than any other pitch in his arsenal. Given his elbow history, that might raise eyebrows since sliders can be taxing. But when you have a 70-grade pitch that generates that many whiffs, it’s hard not to lean on it. In shorter bursts, that pitch could become even more devastating. Which brings us to the bigger question: what is Connor Prielipp long term? When asked about it, he addressed it directly. "So far, I'm told I'm being built up as a starter, so I'm cool with that plan, and we'll see where it goes." 34 of his 35 minor league appearances have been starts. He was drafted as a starter, but between the injury history and the Twins’ rotation depth, it’s fair to wonder if Prielipp's future is in the bullpen. That’s where I personally tend to lean. He’s made just one minor league start where he pitched into the sixth inning. I understand minor league pitchers often work shorter outings, especially while building back up from surgery. But when your average start hovers around three innings, projecting a traditional 180-inning major league starter becomes difficult. That doesn’t mean he can’t be a difference-maker. In fact, he could thrive in a late-inning role. Plenty of elite relievers dominate with two or three pitches. Prielipp has three above-league-average offerings that all move differently and play off each other. The fastball can overpower. The slider can put hitters away. The changeup neutralizes right-handers. In one or two inning bursts, that mix could be electric. He’ll likely open 2026 in Triple-A. But health permitting, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the majors at some point during the season, even if it’s a limited look. At this stage, the priority isn’t defining his role; it’s staying healthy and stacking innings. He’s absolutely one of those prospects with massive upside. If everything clicks and his arm holds up, he could anchor the back end of a bullpen, or perhaps carve out a role as a starter. But he’s also the type of arm where, if injuries resurface, we might look back years from now and wonder what could have been. That’s the battle with high-upside pitching prospects. The talent is obvious. The advanced metrics confirm it. Now it’s about durability and refinement. If his left arm cooperates, Connor Prielipp has the tools to be a real impact piece for the Twins someday. And that’s why he remains one of the most fascinating arms in the system. View full article

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