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Every organization has players who are deemed untouchable when it comes to making trades. Here is a look at Minnesota’s assets that have little chance of being traded this winter. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Some organizations are not planning on contending during the 2024 season, which likely means they would be willing to trade away current value for future long-term pieces. Contending teams like the Twins must find the right balance between supplementing the current roster and adding future assets to open the team’s winning window. The Twins' current roster includes significant depth on the position player side, so that’s a strength from which the team will make moves. Minnesota’s lost TV revenue means the club plans to cut payroll by $15-30 million next season. Veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer are likely on the trading block to clear some salary space. After examining Minnesota’s roster, two player types are untouchable in trades. Current young players with surplus value moving forward and veteran players with high contracts and trade restrictions. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify each player's surplus value in a potential trade, so it’s easy to see why these players are untradeable. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF Surplus Trade Value: 45.1 The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already established himself as one of baseball’s best prospects. Minnesota pushed him to Low-A, and he posted a .989 OPS in his professional debut. His surplus trade value isn’t the highest in the organization because he is far from the big-league level. The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins because he is on his way to becoming a superstar. 2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 44.2 The Twins saw how valuable Lewis can be to the line-up in the second half of last season. He added muscle to his frame while rehabbing from two ACL tears, increasing his power production. He will get an entire off-season to acclimate to third base, his new defensive home. On a team with big names like Correa and Buxton, Lewis is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. 3. Pablo Lopez, SP Surplus Trade Value: 43.1 The Twins have yearned for an ace since trading away Johan Santana was. Lopez stepped into that role last season, and the front office quickly signed him to an extension. He had some ups and downs during his first season with the Twins, but he was fantastic in October. He will be at the top of the team’s rotation through 2027. The Twins continue to try to add to their rotation, so there is no reason to try and trade Lopez. 4. Brooks Lee, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 48.1 Lee has the highest surplus trade value of any player in the Twins organization because he is on the cusp of the big leagues. He has a full six years of team control, with some of those years being at a minimal cost. Jenkins and Lee are ranked closely on many national prospect lists, but Lee has a lower floor, and Jenkins has a higher ceiling. The Twins were lucky to get both players in their respective drafts, and the hope is they are in the middle of the team’s line-up for the next decade. 5. Joe Ryan, SP Surplus Trade Value: 39.1 Near last year’s trade deadline, I wrote that Ryan was the team’s most valuable trade asset. His performance struggled in the middle of the season as he dealt with a groin injury. However, there is hope that Ryan can have a healthy 2024 and reach his full potential. Some of his trade value has decreased because he is in his last pre-arbitration season. Still, the Twins want Ryan to take the next step and prove he can be a player they rely on in the playoffs. How would you rank the players listed above? Would the Twins consider trading any of these players for the right starting pitcher? Leave a Comment and start the discussion. View full article

Joe Ryan had an uneven 2023 season. After being one of the best pitchers in the AL in the first half, he was a completely different pitcher down the stretch. Where does he go from here? Joe Ryan's struggles are easy to summarize. In the first half of the season, he threw 107 innings with a 3.70 ERA and allowed 16 homers. In the second half, he threw 54 innings with a 6.09 ERA while allowing 16 homers in about half the time. It would be easy to say he needs to give up fewer homers, but the trick for Ryan is to find out how to achieve that goal. The knock on Joe Ryan throughout his minor league career was that he was too fastball-heavy and bound to be homer-prone. Through two seasons, this has proven to be true. Ryan still throws his fastball over half the time. While it's still a unique pitch that induces swings and misses, it's hard to deny that, as the league has seen it multiple times, they've found a way not to be fooled. Luckily, Ryan and the Twins have worked to add variety to his repertoire. First, in 2022, it was the sweeper, and in 2023, a split changeup became his second most used pitch. These different pitches have added different layers to Ryan's pitch mix for opposing teams to worry about, but neither has yet to emerge as a dominant offering thus far. Ryan was known to use almost purely fastball in the minors, so it's unsurprising that he hasn't picked up a new grip and immediately found a wipeout secondary. Pitching is always a work in progress, and Joe Ryan may be playing catchup when it comes to his offspeed pitches. Fortunately, Ryan and the Twins are investing plenty of resources into his development. Ryan spent time last offseason at Driveline, and things were paying off significantly during the first half. The facility helps pitchers tweak pitch characteristics and general mechanics, and another offseason of Ryan working to develop his offspeed stuff under their guidance can only help. They'll likely tweak the pitches he already has. They may even work on adding another. We may have to wait until the spring to find out. In addition to pitching specific endeavors, Driveline also works with players to help them physically get in the right place to endure a 162-game season. Health is an underrated factor for Joe Ryan headed into 2024. His dominant first half seemed so long ago, and many fans forget that the real turning point in his season was a groin injury that sent him to the IL. He was never the same after that point. It's reasonable to say that Ryan's injury had much to do with his sharp decline in the second half. He had a clean bill of health throughout his professional career before his IL trip in 2023, and the hope is that the injury was just a blip on the radar. He'll have a typical offseason to prepare for another grind in 2024, and Driveline may also assist in this. Joe Ryan will never be Sonny Gray when it comes to suppressing homers, but the degree to which he allows the long ball will determine what level of success he finds moving forward. His first half in 2023 wasn't smoke and mirrors. He was a dominant pitcher even as he continued to find consistency in his offspeed pitches. The hope is that further development and returning to good health can help Joe Ryan return to form and be the mid to high-end starting pitcher the Twins need. It's possible that Joe Ryan doesn't just return to form but has another level to reach. 2024 will tell us a lot about him. View full article

The Twins were carried by pitching for much of the 2023 season, especially when it came to the starting rotation. But how would their frontline arms match up with the starting corps of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks? How far off are they from looking like a World Series-caliber rotation? Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports While the Twins could not reach the World Series this year. We can assign blame to various factors, including lack of offense at critical moments, poor timing defensively at others, and savvy postseason-experienced veterans of an American League dynasty may have been too much to handle in a best-of-5 series. It takes a complete team to have success in the postseason. (And a little bit of good fortune.) But when you focus on the starting rotation, the Twins make an interesting comparison with those currently in the World Series. So, how do they stack up against these championship contenders? Staff Aces Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (3.22 ERA, 188 IP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 3.7% walk rate, 4.3 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 5.2 fWAR) Twins: Pablo López (3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 29.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 4.5 fWAR) As it stands, each of these three arms had stellar seasons, even ace-level in some respects. They each stayed healthy throughout the year, starting at least 32 games. All three had strong strikeout and walk rates under the hood and found themselves in the top 13 regarding wins above replacement for a starting pitcher. Montgomery was a mid-season addition at the trade deadline and had a fantastic two-month stretch with his new team, where he had a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts, even though his strikeout numbers were just OK. Gallen has been one of the best starting pitchers since being traded to Arizona in 2019, and he has taken a significant leap to ace status since the beginning of the 2022 season. The Snakes' top arm is becoming quite the household name after pitching 396 innings of 3.04 ERA ball over the last two seasons. These stats are purely looking at each player's regular season numbers. But if we consider the two brilliant performances that López accomplished in the playoffs, this one looks even closer. If the Twins had pushed the Astros series to a winner-take-all Game 5, López would have had another chance to shine under a national spotlight. With another start like his first two in the postseason (0.71 ERA, 12 ⅔ innings pitched, ten strikeouts, three walks), the Twins' ace might have a big enough reputation to top the other two arms, but instead the edge has to go to Gallen. Next arms up: Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 22.9% K-rate, 3.8% BB-rate, 2.5 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 177 ⅔ IP, 25.9% K-rate, 9.6% BB-rate, 3.2 fWAR) Twins: Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 24.3% K-rate, 7.3% BB-rate, 5.3 fWAR) There is a case that Gray had a superior season to López, but for this exercise, we'll have him line up as the second starter. Considering how the two lined up in the Wild Card series, it's only fair. Again, all three starters in this matchup had rock-solid campaigns, though Eovaldi missed a handful of turns in the rotation due to forearm soreness. Still, each pitcher showed top-of-the-rotation stuff when healthy and arms that you would easily roll out early in a playoff series. Eovaldi has lost a couple of ticks on his once-electric fastball, which is understandable for a 33-year-old veteran. But he still found a way to get out of jams by inducing plenty of ground balls (86th percentile). He was one of the best at limiting damage with runners in scoring position, where his opponents hit an anemic .168 against him (third-best in baseball, according to Inside Edge). That's extremely valuable, especially in high-octane settings like the MLB playoffs. Kelly has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game but showed a tendency to lose control in 2023. His chase rate was in the 88th percentile, and like Eovaldi, he got plenty of ground balls (68th percentile) to help him wriggle out of danger. While he isn't on the same level as Gallen, Kelly is still a formidable opponent. Gray had the best season of his career in 2023, and he will almost certainly find himself getting some Cy Young award consideration. He was as consistent as any pitcher in the game, with only two blemishes on his 32-start game log. Gray was the best of these three pitchers at limiting hard contact, especially on pitches in the strike zone (.394 opponent slugging, second-best in MLB). That helps to provide some context as to how he avoided giving up the long ball (just eight home runs allowed all season). Regular season numbers might point to Gray having the edge, but his start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS proved how anything can happen in one game. The Twins might not have Sonny Gray to include in this list next year, yet his abilities equal that of a good number two starter in any playoff series. Rounding out the playoff rotations: Rangers: Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 152 ⅔ IP, 28% K-rate, 7.2% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 96 IP, 22.3% K-rate, 6.2% BB-rate, 0.3 fWAR) Twins: Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 161 ⅔ IP, 29.3% K-rate, 5.1% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Here's where things get dicey for all three clubs. The rotations take very similar turns at this point in a series, as all three of these arms are likely facing short starts in high-pressure games. Scherzer is a slam dunk for the Hall of Fame when that time comes, but he finds himself playing through a nagging injury that kept him out of the rotation for weeks leading up to the ALCS. Still, the allure that made him an enticing trade acquisition at the deadline remains. He still possesses elite expected numbers (86th percentile xERA, 90th percentile xBA) and has an extensive history of turning it on in October (3.86 ERA, 29.2% K-rate across 140 career postseason innings). But he was lit up in his two starts in the ALCS, where he allowed seven earned runs in just 6⅔ innings pitched. Pfaadt was one of the better pitching prospects in Arizona's farm system coming into this season. His regular season numbers may have been pedestrian, if not disappointing, but he has been a revelation in the postseason. Across his four October starts, the righty has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP across 16 ⅔ innings pitched. Ryan should be considered an exciting arm for Twins fans going forward, but his lone playoff start against the Astros showed he's still a step behind the veterans in his rotation. In 2023, Ryan gave up home runs at an alarming rate (1.78 HR/9) and ran out of gas in the second half. His strikeout-to-walk rate shows there is still a lot to like for the 27-year-old, and it's encouraging to see him start his off-season with an evaluation from Driveline. Still, the edge has to go to the savvy veteran in Scherzer or the hot hand in Pfaadt. What do you think? How do you see the Twins' rotation matching the Rangers and Diamondbacks' rotations? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

The Minnesota Twins constructed a 2023 team built around significant depth. After having to cycle through a handful of arms to complete the season, they became one of the best rotations in baseball. Repeating means they’ll need to add, but how? Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Going into the season, the front office made a difficult decision to flip fan-favorite batting champion Luis Arraez in exchange for Pablo Lopez. That worked out wonderfully for both teams, and the Twins got an Ace. They backfilled Arraez’s spot with Edouard Julien and now have much more praise for the move. Lopez will be back and start on Opening Day for Minnesota. Behind him, Sonny Gray is not expected to be back. Sure, he is a free agent and could be signed to a new deal by Minnesota, but he will have no shortage of suitors, and the front office shouldn’t be paying him for the Cy Young performance he put up this season. Allocating dollars to Gray would need to include a belief in his performance over the next two or three years, and Derek Falvey could undoubtedly opt to spend those dollars elsewhere. Therein lies the rub. This free-agent pitching class isn’t exactly ideal. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t ever going to be likely for the Twins, but he isn’t a pitcher next season, and the prognosis for the future remains uncertain. That leaves the top names being Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. Again, there will be no shortage of suitors for their services this year, and Snell coming off a Cy Young award isn’t going to drive his price down at all. Looking at the Twins rotation, though, it might not be about spending on the open market at all. The Twins know they need to increase pitching depth and doing something like pushing Bailey Ober to Triple-A makes sense. This year, that would probably come in the form of Louie Varland, but doing so with a starter that slots in just above him can’t happen. Lopez will be the ace, and then some combination of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Ober will work behind him. Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan, and they can find that match by contacting the 29 other teams. When looking to restock the Twins rotation, Derek Falvey hasn’t spent significantly on a starting pitcher. Lopez’s dollars came through an extension, and Gray had already brought team control with him. That means working a trade is already a path he has shown plenty of ability to do and has created depth within the rotation. The front office may consider a few depth arms worth packaging toward a more prominent player. Brent Headrick, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis are all varying degrees of players who may fall into this category. There is also the glut of infield options that the Twins have at their disposal. Brooks Lee is likely off the table, but Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Luke Keaschall, and Tanner Schobel are prospects for which playing time may eventually need to be found. Hitting on another arm through trade is something that should also bring a level of comfort due to the recent track record. Sure, the Twins front office has their fair share of misses, but the last two frontline starters that have been acquired represent substantial wins. It’s not every trade that you’ll find a Joe Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz lopsided outcome, but being able to effectively scout yourself and the competition when making big swings is a skill. No matter how the Twins go about player acquisition this offseason, they will have multiple options. Just because the crop on the open market may be expensive or less-than-ideal doesn’t mean the Twins have to participate. Falvey has done a great job reminding us that his work construction isn’t done until Opening Day arrives. View full article

Sonny Gray was among the American League’s most valuable pitchers during the 2023 season. Here’s how the Twins can use internal options to replace his value on the 2024 roster. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Sonny Gray walked off the mound in Game 3 of the ALDS with his head down. The Twins had returned to Target Field with a chance to take the series lead. Instead, Gray allowed more home runs than any other game this season. It was a disappointing end to what was likely his last appearance for the Twins. Gray turns 34 next month, and he’s reaching free agency for the first time. The Twins will make him a qualifying offer that amounts to a one-year deal of around $20 million. He will decline the offer, and the Twins can receive draft pick compensation if he signs with another team. Gray told reporters that money isn’t the only factor in his search, but he wants to be fairly compensated. It seems unlikely for the Twins’ front office to give Gray a multi-year deal, so the focus turns to replacing him. The Twins aren’t magically going to find a starting pitcher who will produce a five WAR season. Instead, the team will need to piece together value from multiple players. Chris Paddack Paddack returned from Tommy John surgery in the season’s final weeks and showed some tremendous stuff in a bullpen role. Some pitchers can struggle with their command after arm surgery, but Paddack filled up the strike zone and utilized all his pitches, including an increased use of his changeup. He will likely have an innings limit in his first full season back from surgery, but the Twins managed Kenta Maeda well this season. Paddack won’t be in the running for the Cy Young like Gray was this season, but he should fit nicely into the middle of the rotation and add value the Twins didn’t get in 2023. Potential Value: +2.0 WAR Joe Ryan Ryan’s sophomore season was a tale of two halves. Before the All-Star Break, Ryan posted a 3.70 ERA with a 1.01 WHIP and a 124-to-18 strikeout-to-walk ratio over 107 innings. His second half was marred by a groin injury that he tried to pitch through with some disastrous results. In 11 starts (54 2/3 innings), he posted a 6.09 ERA with a 1.48 WHIP while surrendering 16 home runs, the same amount he allowed in the first half in half as many innings. According to rWAR, Ryan provided less value to the Twins than Brock Stewart, Emilio Pagan, and Bailey Ober. The Twins can get more value from Ryan if he can spread his first-half totals over the entire season. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR Bailey Ober Ober finished third on the team among pitchers in rWAR behind Gray and Lopez, but he left other value on the table. He started the season in St. Paul, making four starts before joining the Twins rotation. At the end of August, the Twins sent him back to Triple-A to give him time off, and he made one additional start at that level. There is no question that he would have provided more value to the Twins if those five starts came at the big-league level. Next season, there should be fewer concerns about Ober’s workload after he threw over 170 innings for the first time in his career. He deserves to be in the Twins rotation coming out of spring training, and he might have a chip on his shoulder after the way he was used this season. Potential Value: +0.5 WAR Other Options The Twins will also have other internal options to complete the back end of the rotation. Louie Varland was fantastic in his transition to the bullpen at the end of the season. Minnesota might be tempted to leave him in that role, but that likely won’t happen to start the year. He should get the chance to start and earn the fifth spot in the rotation out of spring training. Despite struggling through different parts of the 2023 season, Simeon Woods Richardson is another intriguing option. He posted a 4.91 ERA at Triple-A with a 1.50 WHIP in 113 2/3 innings. Woods Richardson was nearly five years younger than the average age of the competition at his level, and St. Paul has proven to be a hitter’s park. He won’t begin the year in the rotation, but he should factor into the equation later in the year. Potential Value: +1.0 WAR There is also a potential for the Twins to go out and add another starting pitcher through free agency or a trade. Many were surprised by the Twins adding Lopez last winter when the rotation seemed to have five viable options. Minnesota’s front office values depth, and the team’s younger pitchers might need more time at Triple-A. How do you think the Twins will replace Gray? Do they have enough value with their internal options? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins decision to pull Joe Ryan after facing just eight Astros hitters has sparked some level of controversy among Twins fans. Here is why it was the correct decision. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett - USA TODAY Sports As the game of baseball and those who consume the game on a day-to-day basis continue to progress, the symbiotic relationship between the two appears to be heading toward a collective understanding: It is okay to pull pitchers when they are struggling instead of keeping them in for the sake of keeping them in. Like most efforts of progression, there are those stuck in what the status quo once was unwilling to open their minds, usually due to a stubborn belief system or the desire to combat change, typically induced by fear of the future and its unknown nature. Regardless, we find ourselves in a situation where Twins manager Rocco Baldelli and the organization still get critiqued for their tendency to have a "quick hook." Despite this outdated narrative continuing to run rampant, the Twins ranked fourth in Major League Baseball for innings pitched for starters, with 895 out of 1451 1/3 (62%) innings pitched by Twins pitchers thrown by starting pitchers. False narratives like the one surrounding Baldelli, the Twins, and the nature of "quick hooks" will continue as long as people elect to neglect the reality of situations. Often, the neglect is intentional. So, when the Twins pulled starting pitcher Joe Ryan after pitching two innings and facing just eight Houston Astros batters, numerous fans were unsurprisingly hypercritical of the situation and pounced on the chance to fault Baldelli and his "quick hook." Ryan began his Game 4 start against the defending World Series champion Houston Astros by getting second baseman Jose Altuve to ground to Twins' shortstop Carlos Correa on one pitch, third baseman Alex Bregman to fly out to centerfielder Michael A. Taylor, and the ever-daunting left fielder Yordan Alvarez to fly out to left fielder Willi Castro. Ryan looked effective, and there was no reason to doubt he would return for the second inning to face the Astros four, five, and six hitters. The Twins used three of their middle-to-high leverage relievers in Emilio Pagán, Kenta Maeda, and Griffin Jax the game before, and with Ryan mowing through the first three hitters, there was no reason not to attempt to get as much quality usage out of Ryan as possible. Twins third baseman Royce Lewis hit a solo home run in the bottom of the first, and the crowd at Target Field lit up. Everything was looking up for the Twins in the do-or-die Game 4, and Ryan came back out the bottom of the second holding a 1-0 lead. Ryan got Astros star right fielder Kyle Tucker to strike out, and Target Field exploded. Ryan was dealing, and many started wondering if this was the beginning of another Pablo López-esque style start that could help the Twins survive Game 4 and present them the favorable opportunity of facing the Astros in Houston with López on the mound for a win-or-go-home Game 5. Then, Astros left fielder Michael Brantley hit a 399-foot home run to deep right-center field, and the game was tied 1-1. Ryan, who sported a 20.5% home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) since the All-Star Break, gave up yet another home run, and all the momentum the Twins had, if you believe in such a thing, had dissipated. Brantley's home run was followed by a relatively innocent infield single by Astros centerfielder Chas McCormick, and many began to worry if Ryan, like he did many times after straining his left groin while warming up to face the Atlanta Braves on June 27, was going to implode. Luckily, McCormick's infield single was followed by Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena ground into a fielder's choice to his predecessor Correa, and the Twins were able to get by unscathed and remained tied 1-1 going into the bottom of the second. Shortly after Ryan and the Twins entered the dugout, Twins reporters noted that reliever Brock Stewart was warming up in the bullpen. Soon after this was announced, FOX Sports cameras spotted Baldelli shaking Ryan's hand in the dugout, all but confirming his departure from the tied game. Stewart entered the game for the Twins at the top of the third inning, and Ryan's night was officially done after just 26 pitches. Admittedly, getting taken out of the game after throwing just 26 pitches and giving up one run would be a peculiar move to make by a manager in a traditional start. Emphasis on "traditional." Game 4 of the ALDS, where your team is down 1-2 in a five-game series, is in no way a traditional start. It would have been negligent for Baldelli and the Twins to treat it like one. López, Gray, and Ober were all unavailable, as they had all made a start or pitched in the previous four days, so the Twins' only options were to either start Ryan or have a pure bullpen game where Maeda, Chris Paddack, or Louie Varland could have started. The Twins elected to start Ryan and shift to a bullpen game after just two innings, so it was functionally the same thing. As noted earlier, Ryan has struggled since straining his left groin before his start against the Atlanta Braves on June 27. Going into the playoffs, I believed that Ryan had solidified himself as the Twins' third starting pitcher, but I was still cautious about his ability to perform at the level he had been before June 27. To add context, here are Ryan's numbers since returning from the 15-day IL on August 26: 4.79 ERA, 4.13 FIP, 3.57 xFIP, .345 BABIP, 1.77 HR/9, 16.3% HR/FB, 32.3% GB%, 75.3% LOB%, 149 TBF, 35 2/3 IP, 37 hits allowed, 19 earned runs allowed, seven home runs given up, nine walks, and 45 strikeouts. None of these statistics are particularly inspiring, but what stands out the most is Ryan's 1.77 HR/9 and 16.3% HR/FB. When Ryan was pitching injured from June 27 to July 31, he had a 4.13 HR/9 and 31% HR/FB, so he significantly improved his performance during the seven-game stretch from August 26-September 29, but he was underperforming nonetheless. To put Ryan's post-15-day IL stint performance into perspective, Fangraph deems any HR/FB of 13% or higher as "Awful," and Ryan had an HR/FB of 16.3%. So, despite the vast improvement, Ryan still gave up an awfully high amount of home runs. After Ryan gave up yet another home run to the Houston Astros before getting through their lineup just once, it is no surprise Baldelli and the Twins elected to take him out of the game after the conclusion of the second inning. Reliever Caleb Thielbar eventually gave up a two-run home run to Astros first baseman Jose Abreu in the top of the fourth, propelling the Astros to a 3-1 lead. The Astros held their lead, and the Twins eventually lost 3-2 and were eliminated from playoff contention, ending what was the Twins' best overall season since 2002. Though the Twins ended up losing and getting eliminated from playoff contention, their bullpen medley concocted of Stewart, Thielbar, Paddack, Jax, and Jhoan Duran gave up only two runs through seven innings pitched in a stellar performance. The Twins electing to go with what was functionally a bullpen game in Game 4 isn't what led to their demise. Instead, it was the Twins' four through nine hitters that went a combined 0-19 that let them down in the end. Pulling the home-run-prone Ryan was the correct decision for Baldelli and the Twins, and the bullpen's stellar performance is evidence. What do you think of the Twins pulling Ryan after the second inning? Was it the correct decision? Comment below. View full article

Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley have done plenty of damage to the Twins over the years, but Wednesday night may have been their biggest moments of damage against them over the years. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Sports Every Twins fan has a list of players they begrudgingly think back on who’s done the most damage to the team over the years. Players such as Frank Thomas, Mike Sweeney, Miguel Cabrera, Cliff Lee, Mark Mulder, etc. have always shunned some terror in fans' memories. Jose Abreu and Michael Brantley have been on fan lists for several years from their times with the Chicago White Sox and Cleveland Guardians. But the last two games of the ALDS against the Houston Astros to end the Twins' 2023 season, cemented them among the likes of Yankee players that have killed the Twins' postseason dreams over the last 20 years. Over their careers, both Brantley and Abreu have killed the Twins in almost a full season’s worth of games. Brantley has posted a .299/.356/.418 (.774) with nine home runs and 64 RBI across 134 career games against the Twins. Abreu has done much more damage, as many fans now. He has a .300/.363/.511 (.874) with 28 home runs and 109 RBI. But this season hasn’t been the same for either of them compared to earlier in their careers. Brantley only played in 15 games down the stretch after being out the whole season. Abreu had his worst season by bWAR at -0.1 in 2023. He never had a season with a bWAR below 2.0 before this year. Abreu showed signs of his old self as the Astros season winded down. He hit seven home runs, had 28 RBI, and posted a .835 OPS in 107 plate appearances across 26 games. That success didn’t trickle into his performance during the first two games of the Twins vs. Astros ALDS at Minute Maid Park. He went one for seven with a walk in those two games. The Twins' return to Target Field for Game 3 was Abreu’s moment to inflict more pain into Twins fandom, and he delivered. The Astros were mounting up a rally in the top of the first against Sonny Gray, runners were on the corners with one out. Gray tried to beat Abreu in his weak spot, down and inside. The second pitch was when Abreu made contact on a pitch and it didn’t come back. He put the Astros up 4-0. Abreu was kept quiet throughout the rest of the game, until the ninth inning. Kyle Tucker followed Yordan Alvarez’s solo home run with a walk. Abreu stepped up to face Bailey Ober. He only needed two pitches to pull the ball to left-center field and solidified the Astros win at 9-1. This was Abreu’s moment in an Astros uniform. All the trial and tribulation that showed signs of regression with age went away in Game 3 and he looked like the Jose Abreu of old in a White Sox uniform that won an MVP award. Before the start of Game 4, Astros outfielder and teammate of Abreu, Chas McCormick met with media members. He was asked about how he had seen Abreu handle his struggles from the season and what paid off in Game 3. “He handled it really well. It’s Jose Abreu. I’ve seen him playing against him, I’ve seen him hit 320 bombs. I think we’re getting that Jose Abreu right now, which is perfect. He can take us far and away if he hits like he did yesterday,” said McCormick. And if McCormick was looking into a crystal ball to see the future, Abreu did hit like he did in Game 3 during Game 4. Abreu had the game-winning hit, a two-run homer in the top of the fourth off Caleb Thielbar to put the Astros up 3-4. The Twins bats couldn’t come back from that moment outside of an Edouard Julien home run and it solidified the Twins elimination from the postseason Brantley sat out Game 3 while the Astros' young catcher Yainer Diaz took on the designated hitter duties in his place and Alvarez platooned left field. He would have his moment Brantley’s big moment for the Astros in this series came a couple of innings before. He tied the game off a Joe Ryan fastball and sent it into the right-center field bleachers. That tied the game up 1-1 in the second and showed the Astros were not going to let the Twins get a win here easily. And they didn’t on Wednesday night, those two homers were all the Astros needed as the Twins bats came up cold. Abreu and Brantley did what they have both done for 10 years now against this team and showed up when it mattered most for Houston. There are many other moments Twins fans will reflect on when it comes to Abreu and Brantley lighting up their bats against this team. But the moments from Tuesday and Wednesday night's games will be the ones fans remember as the worst moments of damage they’ve done to the Twins franchise. View full article

Here's an overview of my initial reactions to the Minnesota Twins losing Game 4 of the ALDS to the Astros and being eliminated. It was disappointing to see the Twins fail to take advantage of a couple of good matchups at home. The umpiring was bad but the lineup was a let down. Tough way to end what was a fun season. View full video

Some people are responsible for the Minnesota Twins playoff run ending. Some are more responsible than others. Here are seven of them. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In the wake of a season-ending 3-2 loss to the Houston Astros, it’s important to note how wildly successful this year was for the Minnesota Twins. Ending a decades-long playoff drought, running away with a bad division in the second half, the rise of young stars like Royce Lewis and Ed Julien. But. As noted by a friend of mine, the season ends badly for every playoff team except one. Minnesota is not that one. So before the hurt and frustration wear off and the anticipation for building on the successes in 2024 begins, let’s vent one last time. Here are the things I'm still angry about on Friday. The offense. My god, fellas. I know we’re all (correctly) furious at the next group on this list, but even Rob Deer thinks you strike out too much. Hit the ball! Make them play defense! Please! The umpires. As a Minnesotan, you have two divine rights: To say where you were and what you were doing during the Halloween Blizzard of 1991; and Hold a seething, unfathomable rage against professional sports referees. Would it surprise you to learn that Wednesday’s home plate umpire blew the biggest call of the game in Houston’s favor? Of course not! You just saw another Minnesota team get worked over by the refs in deference to their sport’s defending champions last Sunday. ‘Twas ever thus. And the second you notice it, much less complain about it, some smug [redacted] will say the mistakes balance out and good teams overcome it. My response, honed by years of careful observation and hard-won experience, is this: No they don’t and [redacted] you, [redacted]. Byron Buxton’s body. Anyone who watched him try to run this year, and his admitted mental struggles with the DH role, knew a Kirk Gibson moment was wildly unlikely. The soft pop-up on Wednesday was, sadly, the appropriate end to his nightmare of a year. One of the most gifted athletes you’ll ever see in your life, constantly betrayed by his own body. The six biggest what-ifs of 2023 are as follows: Healthy Byron Buxton. Healthy Carlos Correa. Healthy Royce Lewis. What would the Twins have done without Michael A. Taylor? What would Game 5 in Houston have been like? (I honestly think the Twins win, that's how in the tank I am for Pablo.) Cutting the cord on Joey Gallo in June instead of September. Regression. As Sonny Gray or anyone who crammed for an accounting final will tell you: Math is cruel. Regular prices at Target Field. The family values sections, where you could get relatively cheap popcorn and Budweiser, didn’t exist for the playoffs. How are people on a budget supposed to be super loud and verbally abuse the opposition without cheap beer and salty snacks? Speaking of which… Arguing about how loud/not loud Target Field crowds are. If you thought Target Field crowds were plenty loud prior to 2023, the raucous, ear-splitting noise that literally assisted the biggest play of Game 2 versus Toronto should make you reassess. Admit you’re wrong! Apologize to Dan Hayes! He's a sweet, gentle boy! Bullpen games. I’m actually OK with Rocco’s quick hook of Joe Ryan and the plan in general. But I’m not OK with the pace of play when you’re hauling in new pitchers every inning. This is more of an aesthetic complaint than a strategic one. The pitch clock is the best pace-of-play innovation in baseball since they stopped putting amphetamines in the coffee. And with that, I would like to thank the 2023 Twins for being good enough that it was challenging to make fun of them every Friday. They were fun! View full article

In an incredibly well-pitched game, the Twins had hopes until the very last pitch of the game, but they couldn’t spark a rally rally. The 2023 Minnesota Twins season is officially over. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Box Score Starting Pitcher: Joe Ryan, 2.0 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 1 K (26 pitches, 18 strikes, 69.2%) Home Runs: Royce Lewis (4), Edouard Julien (1) Bottom 3 WPA: Jorge Polanco (-.240), Caleb Thielbar (-.202), Max Kepler (-.117) Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs) Teams exchange solo shots, Ryan gets pulled early The Twins were doomed on Tuesday afternoon after a poor first inning that saw Sonny Gray give up four runs, and Minnesota was unable to bounce back. This time, though, things looked completely different in the early going as Joe Ryan breezed through the top of the first on only ten pitches. Most fans and pundits wanted the Twins not to throw a pitch to Yordan Álvarez in this series anymore, but Ryan had no trouble getting him to fly out to end the inning. The offense was also in business early. Édouard Julien led off the home first with a long double to center. It was of no use, though, as Jorge Polanco hit a very soft liner directly at Jeremy Peña, who was able to tag out Julien quickly for a double play. Despite such a deflating play, the Twins didn’t come out empty-handed. In the following at-bat, Royce Lewis took José Urquidy deep for a line-drive home run to left to make it 1-0 Twins. That was Lewis’ fourth home run this postseason, and he’s now tied with Kirby Puckett for most home runs in a single postseason in franchise history (1991). At four home runs, Lewis is also tied with Greg Gagne for second-most homers all-time in franchise postseason history, behind only Puckett, with five. Ryan looked sharp again in the top of the second, recording two quick outs on only seven pitches. He got a first-pitch strike against Michael Brantley next, but on the very next pitch, Brantley tied the game with a solo home run to deep center. Chas McCormick singled next, but Ryan took care of Peña to end the inning. That’s when things took an unexpected turn. In a surprising move, Rocco Baldelli pulled Ryan from the game after two innings and only 26 pitches. Houston takes the lead with another home run Brock Stewart came in relief of Ryan in the third and took care of business with a 1-2-3 inning on 12 pitches. With the offense going 0-for-7 with a walk after the Lewis home run, the Twins brought lefty Caleb Thielbar in the fourth to face the southpaw trio within the heart of the Astros lineup. He managed to limit Álvarez to a single and struck out Kyle Tucker next. But when righty José Abreu stepped up to the plate, he clobbered an opposite-field two-run shot for his third home run in two days, making it 3-1 Astros. Chris Paddack took over to get the final out of the fourth, and he went on to toss a flawless 1-2-3 fifth with ease, with a pair of punch outs. While Urquidy continued to make Twins hitters look silly by retiring seven in a row, Paddack looked just as brilliant in the sixth with another 1-2-3 effort, this time against hitters three to five. That included a strikeout against Álvarez. Fans might allow themselves to feel very excited about Paddack’s presence in the Twins rotation next year. Twins get one back, get Urquidy out of the game Urquidy made it eight consecutive batters retired when he got Michael A. Taylor to ground out to open the sixth. But his night was about to be over. Julien got his second hit of the night, a solo home run to left, snapping a collective 0-for-14 for the Twins offense since the first inning and cutting Houston’s lead to only one run. Jorge Polanco flied out next, but not before fighting for seven pitches and hitting a bullet (100.7 mph) to deep center. Dusty Baker brought in Hector Neris to try to get the inning’s final out, but Lewis worked a six-pitch walk to keep the Twins rally going. Max Kepler came to the plate representing the go-ahead run, and he got ahead of Neris in the count, 2-0. But the Astros reliever settled down and, with a big help from home plate umpire Jansen Visconti, got Kepler to “strike out”, ending the inning. It’s all about the bullpens, and the Astros hold on Griffin Jax came in to pitch the seventh, and he retired the side, making it ten consecutive Houston batters retired in a row. Had the offense been able to make some noise in the home half, the Twins could get some momentum going. But Neris did a tremendous job tossing a 1-2-3 inning. Then, Jhoan Durán was brought in for the eighth, and he also kept the Twins’ chances alive with a scoreless frame, making it 13 consecutive Astros retired. Target Field got loud in the bottom of the eighth when Byron Buxton walked up to the on-deck circle. Donovan Solano struck out to open the inning, and Buxton had the chance to tie the game next. His at-bat, however, was short-lived. He took the first two pitches for an even count but swung on the third one to pop out to shallow right. Julien struck out next to end the inning, making it seven consecutive Twins batters retired. With the Twins season on the line, Durán needed to put up another zero in the top of the ninth. He handed Álvarez his second strikeout of the night on three pitches, then got Tucker to ground out, taking it to the bag himself. After an Abreu single, Brantley jumped on the first pitch for an easy lineout to center. It was up to Polanco, Lewis, and Kepler against former Twin Ryan Pressly to save Minnesota’s season in the bottom of the ninth. Each of them worked full counts against Pressly, but he didn’t crack, and all three ended up being struck out. Bullpen Usage Spreadsheet SAT SUN MON TUE WED TOT Maeda 43 0 0 25 0 68 Paddack 19 0 0 0 29 48 Ober 0 0 0 38 0 38 Thielbar 18 0 0 0 17 35 Stewart 0 22 0 0 12 34 Durán 0 7 0 0 23 30 Pagán 14 0 0 14 0 28 Jax 0 0 0 9 18 27 Varland 0 0 0 0 0 0 View full article

The Minnesota Twins have looked for offense from a handful of different places this season, and often it has come from the youngsters in their lineup. As they fell flat against the Houston Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS, it was the youth that cost them most. Image courtesy of © Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports Rocco Baldelli’s club should’ve felt a good deal of comfort going into Game 3. The Houston Astros were starting righty Cristian Javier, and despite him being incredible during the 2022 World Series run, he had been nothing close to that this season. Rather than piling on behind Sonny Gray, the offense was nowhere to be seen. Even before Javier continued to throw up zero after zero, it was Alex Kirilloff making one of the worst plays of his young career. Having debuted against the Astros during the 2020 postseason when Josh Donaldson couldn’t go for the Twins, it felt like this might be a spot where he got things going. Instead, starting at first base, he recorded an error that led to four first inning runs. With Yordan Alvarez stepping into the batter’s box, Kirilloff missed a routine double-play ball that had just a .070 expected batting average. Houston’s slugger pushed Jose Altuve to third base on the play, and Kyle Tucker drove in the first run during the very next at bat. Gray then served up a meatball to former White Sox first baseman Jose Abreu, and before the Twins even stepped up to the plate, they were down 4-0. Kirilloff’s gaffe was the epitome of any number of miscues Minnesota fans have grown far too accustomed to seeing. Like a Gary Anderson or Blair Walsh missed kick, this one was entirely on the player failing to execute. Phil Cuzzi wasn’t there to incorrectly impact Joe Mauer, and neither D.J. Reyburn or Brian Knight were behind the dish to screw things up. Kirilloff just came up empty, in one of the biggest games of his career. Unfortunately for the Twins young first baseman, the defensive issue wasn’t the only one. He’s been non-existent at the plate all series as well. After posting a .793 OPS this season, good for a 117 OPS+, he has gone 0-for-9 with four strikeouts in five starts this postseason. He’s not a traditional slugger, but as a guy who has game power that can run into a pitch, he’s been nothing close to valuable at the plate. Minnesota would likely be struggling if their primary first baseman wasn’t producing, but it isn’t just Kirilloff, and that makes things worse. Matt Wallner, playing in the postseason in front of his hometown fans, has been in the same boat. Despite slumping during part of the second half, it seemed the Forest Lake native had figured things out. He had continued to take walks, and then found a way to drive the baseball again. Although he is still trotting 90-feet to first base, the rest of his production has been completely non-existent. Going 0-for-8, Wallner has also struck out in five of those at bats. Not only is he showing an inability to drive the baseball and do damage, but he has looked overmatched at the plate. Maybe the moment has become too big for some of Minnesota’s youth. That is something that could be said for the first at bat from Royce Lewis during Game 3. After chasing three pitches out of the zone, he squandered an opportunity to add, and it was an expansion of the zone we haven’t seen from a guy who has consistently done damage. Lewis missed during the latest game, but has come through the rest of the postseason. Edouard Julien is in a similar boat, and we’ll see how Joe Ryan can show up soon. Either way, youth propping up a roster has benefits until familiarity comes into play. Maybe Baldelli needs to turn starts over to Donovan Solano and Willi Castro on Wednesday, but the reality is that it’s unfortunate Minnesota hasn’t gotten more from Kirilloff and Wallner. Maybe their moment is yet to come, and that could be necessary if they want to advance. No matter what, even if it’s a lot to ask, the team needs more from a pair that is still wet behind the ears. Houston isn’t going to be beat by the Twins getting nothing from corner spots, and the combination of starters against right-handed pitching have now begged the question as to whether they are up to the task. View full article

After two days of speculation of who would start game one of the American League Division Series, the Minnesota Twins made it official: Bailey Ober will be taking the mound in Houston on Saturday afternoon. Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Coming off of the Wild Card round sweep of the Toronto Blue Jays earlier this week, there was no clear answer on who would be the game one starter for the divisional round. Joe Ryan made the most logical sense at first, as he was the one slated to start a game three, should that have been necessary earlier this week. There was a growing sense, though, that due to Joe Ryan’s style, he might not be the best fit to pitch in Houston. Joe Ryan is notably a fly ball pitcher, allowing nearly 50% of all batted balls to be launched into the air. As a result, Ryan was very home run prone this season, allowing 32 home runs in 29 appearances in 2023. In a ballpark like Houston, with the power alley to left field, a homer-prone pitcher like Ryan is a recipe for disaster. Additionally, Joe Ryan has struggled mightily since his groin strain in Atlanta at the end of June. Since June 27, Ryan has a 6.62 ERA with 24 allowed home runs in 14 games. Going away from Ryan in Game 1 made a lot of sense. Taking Joe Ryan out of the picture, Baldelli’s choices really came down to Kenta Maeda and Bailey Ober. With Maeda now positioned into a hybrid-bullpen role, Ober just made the most sense. Though he didn’t make the Opening Day roster, Bailey Ober has been a steady force for the Twins all season, tossing a 3.43 ERA. While Ober also allows his fair share of fly balls (49%), he has done a better job keeping the ball in the ballpark, allowing less than a home run per nine innings. Ober is coming into game one on a bit of a roll, as he posted a 2.08 ERA in the month of September with 26 strikeouts compared to just three walks. Game 1 will be Ober’s first ever postseason appearance, but he does have some experience against the Houston Astros, with a 4.50 ERA in 10 innings back in 2021. How do you feel about Bailey Ober being named the Game 1 starter? Leave a comment below and start the conversation. View full article

The Twins beat the odds and upset the Blue Jays in the Wild Card Series. So, how do the Twins compare against the Astros for each game of the ALDS? Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Dan Szymborski has run ZiPS models at FanGraphs, and it is widely considered one of baseball's most accurate predictors. His model uses growth and decline curves based on player type to find trends and make predictions. According to Szymborski, his playoff model gears much more toward the playoffs' micro-level than the regular season's macro-level. He explained this process by saying, "The ZiPS game matchup tool has a built-in lineup estimator that projects every pitcher's and batter's line against every other pitcher and batter, so there is no need to look at a team's generalized offensive strength. The playoffs also come with the benefit of being able to run the full, more robust model of ZiPS rather than the simpler model used during the regular season, a compromise necessitated by the fact that projecting a majors' worth of players takes more than a day." These results can change as the rosters are finalized, and official starters are announced for each team. Here is how Szymborski sees the Twins and Astros series playing out over the next week. Game 1 Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Bailey Ober Twins Win Probability: 38.3% The Twins' top two starters aren't available after pitching in the Wild Card Series, so the team must shift to a different pitcher for Game 1. Joe Ryan was scheduled to start Game 3 in the previous series, but the Twins decided to start Ober. Minute Maid Park is a home run friendly environment, and Ryan allowed a career-high 1.8 HR/9 compared to 1.4 HR/9 for Ober. FanGraphs originally had the Twins at 38.1% win probability, so switching starters had a small positive impact. Verlander has made 35 starts in the postseason and pitched over 200 innings for multiple World Series champions. The Astros should be favored in Game 1. Game 2 Expected Starters: Framber Valdez vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 38.7% Valdez has been one of the American League's best pitchers over the last three seasons while being a workhorse at the top of Houston's rotation. That being said, this win probability insults what Lopez has done on the mound this season. Lopez was among the AL's best pitchers during the 2023 season in multiple categories. Pitching in Houston can be challenging for any opponent, but he will be on full rest for Game 2, allowing him to return for Game 5 if necessary. This game is shaping up to be a pitcher's duel. Game 3 Expected Starters: Cristian Javier vs. Sonny Gray Twins Win Probability: 50.7% According to ZiPS, Game 3 is the lone game the Twins are favored to win. Gray's start in the Wild Card Series was also the only game Minnesota was projected to win, so there is still hope for the Twins. Twins Daily named Gray the team's Pitcher of the Year and MVP earlier this week, and he's mentioned how vital this playoff run is to him and his family. Javier posted a 4.56 ERA with a 1.27 WHIP in 162 innings this year. This game will be critical for the Twins offense to put up some crooked numbers against the starting pitcher. Game 4 Expected Starters: Jose Urquidy vs. Joe Ryan Twins Win Probability: 48.9% Urquidy missed time during the 2023 season with right shoulder inflammation, and his on-field performance struggled for the first time in his career. In 16 appearances (63.0 IP), he posted a 5.29 ERA with a 1.43 WHIP and a 45-to-25 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Ryan pitch significantly better at Target Field this season compared to his road appearances. In 14 home starts, his ERA was 1.38 runs lower and opponents posted an OPS that was 167 points lower. One of the two teams will face elimination during this game, so both starters will likely have a short leash. Game 5 Expected Starters: Justin Verlander vs. Pablo Lopez Twins Win Probability: 37.2% There is the potential for this to be an epic pitching matchup If the series goes five games. Verlander is a future Hall of Fame member at the end of his career. Lopez has been the ace pitcher the Twins have sought since Johan Santana was traded away. Anything can happen in a winner-take-all game, so the win probability should be closer to 50%. Overall Odds Using the ZiPS model, the Twins probability of winning the series is 36.4%. The odds of the Twins winning in three games is 7.5%, the odds of winning in three games is 15.2%, and the odds of winning in five games is 13.7%. The Astros won three more games than the Twins during the regular season and had to fight for a division title until the season's final day. Houston is more vulnerable than in previous seasons, but they are still the clear favorites on paper. Can the Twins beat the odds for the second straight round? Do you agree with the ZiPS playoff projections? Should the Twins be favored in any of the other games? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article