Minnesota Twins Bullpen Confidence Rankings: Can You Trust Anyone, Anymore?

Coming into the season, the outlook for the Twins’ bullpen felt fairly clear. There were interesting arms and a handful of intriguing profiles, but not much certainty. Through the first few weeks, that hasn’t really changed. As a whole, this unit hasn’t been very strong, and the biggest issue has been inconsistency. It’s been difficult to know what you’re going to get from one night to the next. Even the hurlers who have flashed the ability to cruise through a tough patch in the opposing lineup seem to struggle when asked to do it two or three times in a short span.

There have been a few bright spots, along with some real concerns. With that in mind, here’s where my confidence currently sits, working from lowest to highest.

Zero Faith: Anthony Banda
Coming into the year, Banda felt like someone who could carve out a legitimate late-inning, high-leverage role. That hasn’t come close to materializing. Through 10 2/3 innings, he’s sitting on a 9.28 ERA, allowing 13 hits, three walks, and hitting three batters. It’s not just the results, either; it’s the lack of any real rhythm. We haven’t seen him string together multiple solid outings, and in a 12-appearance sample, that becomes hard to ignore. Opponents are hitting .302 against him, the highest mark in the bullpen (among regular contributors), and there just isn’t much here right now that inspires confidence.

Familiar, but Not Fun: Justin Topa
It’s not exactly reassuring that the two relievers I trust the least are also among the most frequently used. Topa’s surface-level numbers don’t jump out in the same way. A 3.86 ERA is perfectly passable. But once you dig a little deeper, it becomes harder to buy in. A 1.54 WHIP paired with a 13.7% strikeout rate suggests that ERA is a bit lucky. He does a nice job generating ground balls and limiting loud contact, but the consistency hasn’t been there, which again feels like a recurring theme with this group. He’s the type of arm that can get through an inning cleanly one night, and then spend the next outing working out of constant traffic. That volatility makes him difficult to fully trust; he'd be a better fit for a team with a better defense.

Next up, I’ve got a tie, and fittingly, it’s between two left-handed options.

Sortable Southpaws: Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk
Neither has done much to distinguish themselves, in a positive way. Both are carrying WHIPs north of 1.50. Neither generates much swing-and-miss, and both have run into issues with walks. On the surface, Funderburk’s 2.00 ERA looks far more appealing than Rogers’s 7.27, but the underlying numbers tell a different story. Funderburk’s 5.80 FIP and 6.47 xERA suggest he’s been living on the edge, and that some regression could be coming. In reality, both pitchers have fallen into that same inconsistency trap. There just hasn’t been a reliable rhythm, and at this point, it’s hard to feel overly confident in either left-handed option when the game is on the line.

The Hard-Throwing Youngster: Andrew Morris
Morris has been deployed as more of a length reliever, typically working in two- to three-inning stints. That role matters here, because if we were strictly evaluating him as a one-inning arm, he’d probably land higher on this list. The issue is what happens after that first inning. We’ve seen him run into more trouble the deeper he goes into outings, which has inflated his numbers, including a 7.71 ERA that doesn’t exactly scream reliability.

But context is important. Half of the earned runs he’s allowed came on one swing, a bases-clearing double by TJ Friedl in a spot where Morris arguably shouldn’t have been in the game. Another two runs came on Bo Bichette’s game-winning double after Morris had already exited, with those runners inherited and ultimately allowed to score. When you look beyond the ERA, there’s actually a lot to like. His stuff has arguably been the best of anyone in this bullpen. He’s generating a ton of chase out of the zone, limiting hard contact, and attacking hitters with confidence, reflected in a strong 5.9% walk rate. If the Twins can keep him in more controlled two-inning bursts (or even shift him to a traditional one-inning role), there’s a good chance the results start to match the underlying performance.

That brings us into the top three.

The Journeyman: Garrett Acton
Yes, there’s definitely some small sample influence here. Acton has only thrown 6 ⅔ innings, but it’s been an impressive stretch. He’s running a 2.70 ERA with a 2.54 xERA, and the underlying metrics are hard to ignore. A 34% whiff rate and 30.4% strikeout rate jump off the page, and he’s done an excellent job limiting hard contact. The stuff is playing well. The only reason he isn’t higher is the limited sample. If these numbers were stretched over 30 or 40 innings, we’d be having a very different conversation—one where he’s probably sitting at the top of this list, if only because of the uninspiring competition for that honor.

Why Aren't You Better? Cole Sands
In a bullpen like this, that placement says quite a bit. It’s not about overpowering stuff or eye-popping velocity. It’s much simpler than that; he’s steady. He’s predictable in the best way possible. Sands owns a 3.48 ERA, which is right in line with what we’ve come to expect from him, and there’s real value in that kind of consistency, especially in a group that hasn’t had much of it. He was probably my preseason pick as the most trustworthy reliever in this bullpen, and while the start hasn’t been dominant, there’s little reason to move off that stance. When he enters a game, there’s a level of calm that just doesn’t exist with most of the other options. However, two years ago, we got an extended look at a version of Sands who could dominate. Since the start of last year, that guy has shown up only in brief glimpses.

Somehow, a Relief Ace: Eric Orze
If the Twins needed to name a primary closer tomorrow, Orze would get my vote without much hesitation. He’s leaned heavily on his splitter, and it’s been a legitimate weapon, generating whiffs on over 30% of swings. Even when hitters make contact, they’re not doing much damage. His average exit velocity allowed, along with his hard-hit and barrel rates, all sit in the 83rd percentile or better among major-league pitchers.

He’s missing bats at an above-average rate, generating strikeouts, and while the command isn’t perfect, it’s more than manageable, with a 9.3% walk rate. (Keep in mind that, with ABS having shrunk the strike zone, the league's overall walk rate is 9.7% so far this season.) The underlying metrics back it all up, with both Orze's FIP and xERA sitting at an elite 2.38. The results have been good, and the data suggest they could be even better moving forward. Yes, he’s blown a save, which does not help my case. But he’s also the only reliever in this bullpen to have multiple save opportunities, which says a lot about how he’s already being trusted.

In a bullpen searching for stability, Orze has provided it. Right now, he stands alone as the arm I trust the most.