bean5302

I mean... that's true if the team is the Twins and they have a dozen question marks on the roster beyond the bullpen. I think the reliever results are a lot better than you're saying they are, but most teams don't have 5+ holes they need to fill in the bullpen, and most teams don't focus on bullpen issues when the rest of the team is a bunch of holes.

The fact he's in the top 20 has more to do with his age than his skills. Passive at the plate, can't control the run game, not great at blocking. I'll continue to say it. Age and experience combined are important when considering prospects. This was Jimenez's 4th professional baseball year, and he's got a long ways to go.

Should be interesting to see what happens with Ryan. I don't see any reason for Ryan not to push for arbitration at this point. He's an All Star. I would say that's a "Special Accomplishment" and argue for a salary closer to market value to follow in Skubal's footprint. Plus, I expect major changes to arbitration coming out of the CBA which will allow for substantial changes to the model.

They need to abandon it. Turns out just adding 5mph of velo in 2 years to any pitcher they draft late in the rounds doesn't automatically transform the pitcher into a stud. Falvey believed he discovered a market inefficiency and was willing to continue to double-down on it. For every moderate success like Ober, there's a Winder, who broke down trying to throw dramatically harder. There's a Balazovic who had their stuff flatten out or couldn't master controlling the max effort slinging. Falvey was not smarter than everybody else in baseball, and his strategies continued to fail year in and year out.

That has not been the trend in baseball. Players have always signed wherever offered the most money, with a little bit of wiggle room (like 5-10%) for preferred location. The Dodgers will have to cast off half their roster and will not look like a competitive team if a salary cap comes. That's not a premier destination anymore.

Jeffers is worth whatever an employer is willing to pay. Same as any job in a capitalist society. The contract estimates for Jeffers from models and non-Twins fans seem way too low to me. The top estimate is 3yrs $40MM with two other estimates below $20MM total, but I think teams are going to have to look hard at what Jeffers did and how he accomplished it. Jeffers has undergone a pretty radical transformation at the plate over the past couple years. Walk rates have skyrocketed, strikeout rates have cratered, contact has improved dramatically. He rarely whiffs and when he swings hard, he hits the ball hard. Projection models for salary estimators aren't bullish on Jeffers' future production. Even at a longer review, nothing really seems amiss except... he sucked against fastballs last year. Pitcher rarely threw fastballs Jeffers' way, but there's no way analysts don't catch on. It feels a lot like Trevor Larnach's adjustments. As Larnach adjusted to not be useless against changeups and breaking pitches, his ability to get on the fastball tanked. Then, Larnach re-adjusted to try and get to the fastball again, but the old weaknesses started showing again. Jeffers has historically been, overall, a little above a league average bat with mediocre catching skills and mediocre durability. He's never produced better than 2.6 fWAR in a season, and he averages just under 2.0. How much teams buy into the sustainability of the new Jeffers approach at the plate will dictate his value. I'm trending down on my estimates of his contract based upon independent estimates. If the Twins can sign Jeffers to that 3/40 contract without a NTC, I think that's certainly worth considering. Trade him when/if Lackey or Tinney is ready.

If the owners get a salary cap, the Dodgers are going to need to completely rebuild. It's tough to predict what they'll look like after. That said, Milwaukee feels like the next Astros franchise right now.

Much more likely Baldelli got the impression he wasn't a favorite candidate and wanted to save face by removing himself before he was eliminated. Just like how Falvey and the Twins came to a mutual decision to part ways.

There seems to be a false dilemma being created that Ryan Jeffers is the only catcher not currently under guaranteed team control next year who could potentially be on the roster. Even if the free agent market isn't flush with catcher talent, it's not like trades are off the table, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect Jeffers to repeat his 2026 career season. How much better is Jeffers than a different short term catcher the Twins could acquire? Or could the Twins acquire a longer term catcher with Tinney or Lackey? There are a lot of options other than sign Jeffers or lose 162 games next year.

Arraez was one of the best 2B in baseball last year at +12 OAA. Presumably because he changed his approach to fielding in order to maximize the lousy OAA metric. Players are beginning to talk about how OAA is making negative impacts on teams. Other than the severely flawed OAA metric, Arraez has graded out as an average-ish fielder at 2B. Side note TwinsDaily continuing to use British English for spell check is annoying AF.

From Spotrac, Jeffers projected contract is 3yrs $40MM . From some site I've never heard about Ogilvie, it's 2yrs $19MM The Athletic's Jim Bowden predicts 2yrs $15.5MM It's interesting to see the statistical analysis their engine provides rather than Twins fans perceptions of Jeffers. Basically, non-Twins fans suggest Jeffers should instantly gobble up a QO and the Twins would be on the hook for the $10-15MM overpay.

Given Zoll is still here, I see more of the same from ownership, and Zoll looks like Falvey 2.0. I don't know who the Twins will sign.

Exactly. No pre-AAA, MLB ready player has ever been extended because it burns options, reduces team control, and comes with enormous risk for little savings. There's no benefit to the team for doing it at all. Practicing this strategy would cripple every single MLB franchise. Even the Dodgers would be crippled by this strategy. Even add on the fact this is extra, extra, extra stupid because of the likelihood of a lockout. If Lackey was extended, he couldn't even continue to develop in the minors because he'd have to be on the 40 man and part of the MLB CBA.

Its like saying Shohei Ohtani and Brusdar Graterol are intertwined for the Dodgers. Ober and Kremer are intertwined. Ryan is a different story and he's not worth nearly as much as fans around here seem to think he is. I think the Twins could get maybe a little something for Ober, but this front office has proven time and again they can't help themselves when it comes to sign and trade. They keep everybody for some reason. So I'd advocate non-tendering Ober. If the Twins keep him, compare Ober to Kremer in spring training and trade the weaker looking of the two. This front office mess, though, we'll be keeping all three and standing pat.

Stupid decisions cripple franchises. But, by all means, advocate for making stupid decisions just because.