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TopGunn#22

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TopGunn#22 last won the day on December 18 2021

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About TopGunn#22

  • Birthday 05/09/1958

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    Twins fan since 1964. I was 6 at the time.
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    General Sales Manager KAAL-TV

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  1. Great points by many on this topic. At this point of the cold Minnesota Winter everything is speculation. Which is fine, because speculation can sometimes warm your feet up. We will hit and score runs decently. Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson. They'll hit. I expect Kiriloff to break out. Will Sano be better? Will Garver ? Is Kepler hopeless, or will a new hitting coach get thru to him ? Will we stay healthy ? Those are all legit questions but in the grand scheme of the 2022 season it comes down to pitching (as it always does for EVERY baseball team). Will the Twins acquire at least ONE solid major league pitcher to lead the staff ? Will the young guns stay healthy and show their stuff in 2022 ? As others pointed out: Nobody said the Giants were going to be any good in 2021. They won 107 games !!! Back when the Royals first returned to the World Series I don't remember any "buzz" about them. The Braves had young pitching and thus "potential" but then Soroka was lost for the season and many of their "young guns" disappointed. Olney got ONE thing right. The A.L. Central is NOT the N.L. West or the A.L. East. The White Sox are GOOD. Detroit and KC are improving. The Guardians will pitch. But the Twins are not bereft of talent. With a couple shrewd moves (and shouldn't we EXPECT our FO to be able to make these moves?) the Twins could be right in the thick of it. Inaction by our FO will result in another last place finish. Which would (or should) lead to the dismissal of the FO as well as Rocco.
  2. I posted before reading everyone's comments because I just wanted to say what I think before taking in what others think. bean has laid out the depth (although I don't like seeing Cave listed anywhere Nice job bean)!! Look, I don't think anyone wants to give Arraez (or anyone else for that matter) away for "just a guy." We can certainly trade Arraez because he honestly hasn't had THAT big of a positive effect on our offense. Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently and in the lineup everyday. And Arraez in LF is O.K. in spurts but not as your "starting" LF. There WILL be injuries, but Miranda, Gordon, possibly Martin sooner than later are all capable options. Especially Miranda. Some will field better, some will hit with more power. Arraez is NOT a linchpin of our offense. He's a great Contact Hitter/On Base Machine, but he's not Buxton, Polanco, Donaldson, Sano (when he's swinging well). I'll bet you my house mortgage Kiriloff has a greater offensive impact this season than Arraez. It's tough to make an argument that missing the 7th, 8th or 9th best offensive player in your lineup is a death blow to your offense. If you can add a solid MLG starting pitcher (which we currently literally have almost NONE) you trade a guy like Arraez.
  3. These are all valid and good points Theo, and I would add each reason is why Arraez is the Twins 2nd best trade asset to Polanco. I'm not trading Polanco. I'm building with him going forward. In another post, I laid out how I would keep Arraez and trade Austin Martin if that is what it would take to acquire an Ace potential pitcher from the Marlins like Sixto Sanchez. Why would Miami trade a pitcher like that ? Because they already have TWO Ace level young pitchers in Rogers and Alcantara a STRONG #2 in Pablo Lopez as well as a very talented #3 in Cabrera. They also have young, high ceiling pitchers like Meyer and Luzardo. Quite simply, they're LOADED with young pitching but VERY short on offense. Arraez is ready to step into a place in Miami's lineup right now. Austin Martin would take a little longer, half a season at minimum. I'm NOT trading Miranda. He's playing 3B when Donaldson DH's. He's playing 2B when Polanco DH's. He's playing 1B when Sano DH's (which might be very often). He may not hit .300 like Arraez but his power and run creation will be superior. I'm risking it with Miranda. He's not starting 2022 in St. Paul. What more does he have to prove there ? Arraez is one of my favorite players on the Twins. But I'm moving him for Sixto Sanchez if possible. I'll be 64 in May. I saw Rod Carew when he came up in 1967. You can lay all the "comparisons" you want side by side of Carew and Arraez, even down to BOTH of them having knee problems. There ARE similarities. There is only one Rod Carew. To Miami, I stress the heck out of those similarities. But there is only one Rod Carew. I'm looking to add Sanchez to a staff that could see Balazovic, Winder, Duran and Canterino to go with Ryan and Ober. Arraez is my #1 chip to get him. Austin Martin is #2.
  4. First Covid, and now a lockout is doing MLB no favors whatsoever. And as mikelink45 pointed out, it's hurting EVERY MLB club and their young players who desperately need developmental time. ALL these young Twins pitchers have had their development disrupted (and injuries haven't helped either). The same with Lewis and other young hitters. The Twins still have the payroll flexibility to sign Pineda and then go big with either a Story or Rodon signing. Pineda is realistic and one of the other two probably a pipe dream. But trading someone like Arraez, Kepler, Martin or Larnach for young, controllable pitching, like Sixto Sanchez or Max Meyer from Miami or proven big league pitchers like Montas, Bassitt or Manaea from the A's is certainly something the Twins FO has to consider. You just can't go into next season with Ryan, Ober, Bundy and maybe Pineda/Dobnak. Competing in 2022 and being competitive in 2023 and beyond are not mutually exclusive goals. No team should ever be so shortsighted as to be "All IN" on the next season with no regard to the future. But there are trades the Twins FO could make or at least persue that could benefit the Twins in 2022 and beyond. Arraez, Miranda and Martin are "somewhat" redundant. Add in Gordon and Lewis and one or two of these guys can and should be moved. I don't trade Miranda. He's on the Twins from day one this season replacing Arraez once he's dealt. I don't trade Lewis. I've just simply got to find out what I have and he's currently more valuable to the Twins now, than what he could bring back. That leaves Martin. If I had the opportunity to deal Martin straight up for Sixto Sanchez (Martin 30.8 MLB Trade Values and Sanchez 30.0) I'd do it ! The Marlins have a glut of really talented, but really young SP'ing. We need a guy like Sanchez to build around our starting staff. Martin would be an extremely valuable addition for the Marlins. An on-base machine with positional flexibility and years of team control. Sanchez is READY to pitch in the big leagues, and heading a future Twins staff with Balazovic, Canterino, Winder, Ryan and Ober would be just fine with me. If I made a trade like this, I'd sign Story in a heartbeat. Royce Lewis could very well be my SS of the future and Story could move to 3B once the Twins move on from Donaldson. But Lewis could also be a pretty good LF'er. How about an outfield of Lewis, Buxton and Kepler ? Heck, Larnach could take over in RF and nothing would fall with Buxton and Lewis out there. Assets are just that...assets. You leverage them to make your team BETTER.
  5. Scouting here is so important, but so is realistic "projection" of what the player "could" be. I agree that international signing is a potential gold mine for talent. The thing is, so many of these guys are SO YOUNG that many of us will have forgotten about them for a couple years while they grow and mature in the low minors and then suddenly "remember" who they were once they finally get to High A or Double A. I'm glad we got 3 highly thought of players but I also know that the BEST one might be one of the other guys we signed later.
  6. In my humble opinion, Blyleven and Kaat were never "borderline" HOF'ers. Had Bert pitched for the Yankees his career stats would have seen him elected YEARS ago. Kaat, at minimum, should have had the Twins retire his number YEARS ago. As was mentioned, in 1966 there was only one Cy Young Award winner for BOTH Leagues. Koufax was "otherworldly" in his final big league season. Look up the stats. If the A.L. had named a CY Young winner as well, Kaat would have easily won. Plus, add on SIXTEEN (16 !!!) Gold Gloves and with 283 career wins he EARNED his ticket to Cooperstown. But yes, the TWINS should have put him in THEIR Hall of Fame YEARS ago. What I'm NOT sure of is this: When Joe Nathan is inducted into the Twins HOF, will we put up TWO #36's ???
  7. And Old fox, the Padres also have young LHP's like Gore and Weathers. If the Twins made an offer, one way to plug another hole in the lineup and lower the cost would be to take on the salary of Wil Myers in a deal. Myers would be the Twins LF'er and middle of the lineup hitter. The Padres appear to be very motivated to clear the salaries of Myers and especially Eric Hosmer. Once the lockout ends, I'd call 'em up.
  8. I love it when guys on TD propose trades. It ALWAYS makes for good discussion, so Thank You 21bdl21 ! I agree with the comments that we don't need MORE prospects, especially pitchers. We have something like 16 legit pitching prospects so acquiring more just leads to 40-man roster headaches. If I'm giving up Arraez, I'm looking for a legit Big League pitcher who can help the Twins in 2022 and beyond with an extension. With a value (MLB Trade Values) of 27.9 Arraez is the Twins BEST trade piece NOT named Polanco. Arraez has defensive versatility and elite bat to ball skills. He should be able to bring back a very good pitcher...or TWO. Bassitt and Manaea from Oakland have a combined value of 35.5. (Bassitt 17.0 and Manaea 18.5). The Twins should be talking to Oakland about a deal centered around Arraez and looking to bring back Montas (39.6 value) or BOTH Bassitt and Manaea. The Twins should NOT be punting 2022. They should be building to compete in 2022 and beyond.
  9. In looking at some of the other comments where we're discussing if not Andrus, then who at SS ? I'll admit, Andrus is not high on my list of "I want him to be my SS." He's only a means to acquire solid, veteran pitching, which the Twins desperately need. That's the ONLY fascination I have with Andrus. If I'm the Twins FO I'm looking at Adelberto Mondesi from the Royals as a target. They have Nicky Lopez, a Gold Glove caliber SS as well as Bobby Witt Jr. Mondesi has TONS of upside potential, but all he's done is disappoint in K.C. I'd make a run at him. My other option would be to talk to the Cardinals about Paul DeJong. He's a solid glove with power who strikes out too much, but it appears he may no longer be in their plans as Sosa beat him out last year and the Cardinals are rumored to be considering Story. DeJong is only a 4.5 value and the electric arm of Alex Reyes is a 0.0 value. If I'm the Twins I offer Valimont or Sands for BOTH. Again, I've solved my SS problem in the short term and I've added an electric arm that seems to have fallen out of favor in St. Louis. I actually like this deal better as it's far less risky than the Oakland deal. I'd still probably circle back to the A's for a discussion because I feel Arraez is "their kind of player" and with a value of 27.9 and Bassitt and Manaea having a combined value of 35.5 I'd still like to see what they'd be willing to do. Imagine a Twins off-season that added a SS like DeJong and an arm like Alex Reyes as well as veteran SP's like Bassitt & Manaea and the biggest assets you parted with would be Arraez, Cole Sands and Valimont. I'd feel pretty good about that heading into 2022.
  10. Doc Gast, who else would you suggest other than SWR ? The Value made him the most logical for me, as the other similar value was Canterino and I REALLY like Canterino. Perhaps a couple of pitchers with a combined value of 8 to 10 instead of SWR? Brandon, we would never get Montas AND Manaea...BUT, we could get BOTH Bassitt and Manaea instead of Montas. This would be "quantity" (and pretty decent quality) over the Blue Chip of Montas, who is younger, better and controlled for more than just the 2022 season. But the idea of BOTH Bassitt and Manaea IS interesting if Oakland would part with both to get Arraez and SWR back. In that case, if I'm the Twins FO I'm monitoring how all my young pitchers perform in 2022. And I'm also measuring what I'm willing to do with Bassitt and Manaea up to the trade deadline and for 2023. If the Twins are in the thick of it in the A.L. Central (and with Bassitt & Manaea I'm thinking they WOULD be) I'm deciding which of Bassitt or Manaea I want to offer that 3-year $45 million dollar contract to and which one I either trade, or let walk after the 2022 season. But the key is, I want ONE of those guys in my rotation for 2023 for SURE. I want the veteran presence and stability going forward with my host of young guns. In a dream world, the Twins would be building a young pitching staff like the Baltimore Orioles in the early-mid 60's. Young pitchers like Bunker, Pappas, Barber, McNally and Palmer, but with savvy vets around like Robin Roberts, Dick Hall and Stew Miller. In every scenario I'm commenting on, I'm operating under the premise that the Twins are going to compete in 2022. Otherwise, why sign Buxton ? The "option" Andrus has for 2023 could be troublesome, but if Lewis shows he's ready, there would be a definite pathway to playing Lewis more in the second half of 2022 and Andrus doesn't get the needed AB's to qualify for making it a player option. Andrus is really nothing more than a decent stop gap until we know what we have (or don't have) at SS. he's a means to an end to acquire either Montas or both Bassitt & Manaea. But I'm interested in what Doc Gast would offer other than SWR. I hate giving a pitcher with potential like he has up too, but something has to entice Oakland to give us Montas or Bassitt/Manaea in addition to us taking Andrus off their books.
  11. I voted "Like to Read a little more" because as always "It depends on what else you get back." Here is a trade scenario based on MLB Trade Values where we acquire Andrus a little somethin' else: Athletics Get: Arraez 27.9 and Simeon Woods-Richardson 9.6 Total 37.5 Twins Get: Elvis Andrus -4.2 and Frankie Montas 39.6 Total 35.4 It's a bit of an overpay for the Twins but the A's would do it to get a versatile bat and a young pitcher with very good potential. I'd do it in a heartbeat for the Twins because I get Montas to head my rotation for at minimum 2 seasons while my young pitchers sort out who's a keeper and who isn't. One thing I have to applaud the current FO for is that at times we've listed at least 16 young, up and coming pitchers in the Twins organization. 16 !! We can't possibly expect all of them to work out and with our current dire need for "experienced" pitching (that is also fairly young and talented) we can afford to part with ONE promising arm to get a proven big league #1 or #2. AND, while Andrus may not be the BEST SS out there he does check several boxes. 1: He's a dependable fielder and he's durable. He still has decent bat to ball skills, in other words, he won't put up a Simmons type offensive year. 2: He's a perfect stop gap SS while the Twins figure out that Austin Martin is their future LF'er and Lewis either shows he's the future SS or he's a RF/3B candidate. Montas is valued at 39.6. Bassitt is 17.0 and Manaea is 18.0 for a total value of 35.5. If you wanted, you could swap Bassitt and Manaea in for Montas and get a little something more from Oakland, but I'm choosing Montas because Bassitt and Manaea are one season acquisitions and Montas has Ace potential and is multiple. Plus, with the pipeline of young pitchers ripening in our organization, we don't need 2 "placeholders" we need an Ace to build around. If Montas ends up being the equal of Berrios (or even better) then I sign HIM to the extension Jose wanted because by that time, the Twins will have multiple, young pitchers who are extremely affordable contributing at the big league level. THIS is why I would consider trading for Elvis Andrus.
  12. So the alternative is not to do anything because this FO is lousy ?? I'll agree, I lack a certain degree of confidence in this FO given that they've completely failed in 2 of their 5 years. But inaction is inertia and without any movement, we're right back in last place. The trading of Arraez is something I've often suggested on TD with various trade offers. Everyone knows that despite him being one of my favorite players, I'm earnestly suggesting trading him for pitching. I don't think the Twins would miss him at all given the young talent ready to take his place and the DIRE need to upgrade our pitching staff. Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order and give him 550 AB's anyway. Arraez probably hit 6th as much as he hit leadoff of 2nd in the lineup. As was stated right off the bat, it all depends on what you get for him. But isn't that the case with ANY trade ?? And there is NEVER a guarantee that the trade will work out. NEVER. If there was, do you think the Cubs would have traded Lou Brock to the Cardinals for Ernie Broglio ? Or the Dodgers Pedro Martinez for Delino DeShields ?? To those clamoring to trade Donaldson or Sano, I understand your desire, but I think MLB Trade Values is a great site to play around with trades to see what the relative "cost" would be. It's not perfect, but what is ? It at least gives you an idea of what could work or what would never work. Here are some values of Twins players in a trade. Keep in mind that Donaldson and Sano are NEGATIVE trade values, meaning that in order to move them, you either have to take back someone else's bad contract or accept entirely fringe prospects. Arraez 27.9 Polanco 31.6 Larnach 22.6 Kepler 23.6 Sano -7.1 Balazovic 14.5 Jhoan Duran 6.9 Donaldson -19.1 Austin Martin 30.8 Jeffers 19.2 Kiriloff 37.0 Miranda 11.7 Rooker 1.9 Sabato 3.0. I listed a bunch to give you an idea of each players relative value. Now lets look at some trade values for the Miami Marlins to give additional perspective and to create a trade. T. Rogers 96.7 Alacantara 75.3 Pablo Lopez 57.1 (25 yrs old) Sixto Sanchez 30.0 (23 yrs old) Max Meyer 22.2 Jesus luzardo 10.0 (23 yrs old) Cabrera 14.9 (23 yrs old). You can easily see we can't afford Rogers, Alcantara or Lopez. Just too expensive. And if I'm the Marlins, those are my core pitchers I'm hanging on to and building around. So lets say the Twins want to acquire Sixto Sanchez. He's very talented but not one of the BIG THREE. Marlins get: Arraez 27.9 and either Larnach 22.6 or Kepler 23.6. Trade value is either 51.5 or 50.5 depending on if we traded Larnach or Kepler. Twins Get: Sixto Sanchez 30.0 and Max Meyer 22.2 Total 52.2 . The Twins are not giving up enough. To acquire two young pitchers from the Marlins, I think the Twins would need to slightly overpay, so adding Sabato 3.0 or Rooker 1.9 makes a slight overpay and a workable trade. Possibly the Twins include a pitcher like Strotman if the Marlins want to add an arm back instead of all bats. The Marlins do this because they have a glut of young arms but desperately need offense. Arraez provides a top of the order bat who would primarily play 2B but also provides versatility. They get an OF bat with either Kepler or Larnach and they either add a power bat/future DH (Sabato or Rooker) or a future BP arm in Strotman. All players with the exception of Kepler are young and cheap for the future with the exception of Kepler, who is still on a very team friendly contract. The Twins get two young arms in Sanchez and Meyer. Sanchez would open the season in the Twins rotation. Meyer would be added to the LONG list of Twins pitchers who could make a mid-season debut. If this was the trade that involved Arraez I'd be on board.
  13. I agree Doc Gast, I always get excited for this too. This is where I always hope the Twins find the next Oliva, Carew or a Clemente or Marichal. For me, the excitement is almost exclusively Latin ballplayers because the Twins have seldom ever tried and have really never had success with Asian ballplayers, but yes, I was VERY hopeful (unrealistically of course) that we would sign Ohtani. I also like that this is always "separate" from the regular MLB draft. It's like it's own special little draft. Players drafted in the International Draft are often so young, it's easy to lose track of them once their drafted. I'll try to look up more on the guys that Dman provided as well. Thanks Dman !!
  14. I've seen enough of Smeltzer to want him to be included in a trade package or just released. Not a fan.
  15. The Twins seem to have some money to spend (SP, SS, LF ), and some trade pieces to shore up weak areas (SP and BP). I think Arraez is redundant and aside from Polanco the highest valued trade asset the Twins have. The Twins offense will be just fine without Arraez and Rocco refuses to put him at the top of the order consistently anyway. To the guys who made the point that they would like to see the Twins do BOTH (give opportunities to young talent for development AND acquire some SP and maybe a SS, I agree 110%. The A.L. Central is winnable. We aren't going to have a 105 win team in the A.L. Central. We. Can. Compete. I'd sign Trevor Story. SS hole filled and a good bat in your lineup. I'm not worried about his "Coors Field Effect." He'll hit. I would package Arraez to pick up a SP and I wouldn't worry about how many years of control I'd get, although it would be a strong consideration. Montas, Sixto Sanchez, Bassitt, Manaea, and a host of others are interesting. I'd bring back Big Mike for some "glue" and depending on Danny Duffy's health I'd look at him as well. LF is kind of a black hole. Larnach, Rooker, Celestino, even Miranda (who would replace Arraez's role) could all be a factor out there. I'm interested in Garlick, Refsynder, Cave et all. If THOSE are my options...give me a young player ! The Conforto suggestion is also interesting, maybe even Eddie Rosario. If the Twins were willing to take on an undesirable contract Wil Myers would be interesting in a trade that would also bring back Gore or Weathers. The only other place I could POSSIBLY look to spend some money would be on a TRUE closer. I think Taylor Rogers could be that guy, but to me it's clear Rocco doesn't. How else do you explain sticking with Colome last season as the hole the Twins were digging for themselves got bigger and bigger. I think the Twins have GOBS of In-House options for their Bullpen. And I think whatever roles they carve out for these Young Guns gives the team control over innings and usage while getting a good look at what they might have.
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