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TopGunn#22

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TopGunn#22 last won the day on December 18 2021

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About TopGunn#22

  • Birthday 05/09/1958

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    Twins fan since 1964. I was 6 at the time.
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    General Sales Manager KAAL-TV

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    Sports, Politics and Music

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  1. They need to make some moves and the sooner the better. Lopez has been solid for Baltimore. Bednar has been great for Pittsburg. I realize RP's are volatile year to year but those two guys have good arms and stuff and would be two excellent targets. I'm sure the Twins are talking with teams, but I'm afraid nothing really gets done until the deadline approaches.
  2. Great comments by many posters. I think I wore out the "Rec" or approval icons. Our FO needs to do something sooner rather than never for our BP. Our manager shot to notoriety on the strength of a record setting HR season. He really isn't very good with situational baseball, whether that's managing a BP or manufacturing a run when all you need is one run to win. This series is showing the gap between someone like Francona and Rocco. Give me back Paul Molitor...analytics be damned. It's a long season. But this stretch is shining a huge spotlight on all this team's flaws, from personnel to the managing and coaching. "Staying the course" doesn't seem to be an effective strategy. Some shaking up of the current situation is needed, whether that's trades or other moves.
  3. It will always depend on cost. But the Twins do have some organizational depth and if they are trading for assets that will or could be on the team in 2023 and beyond then I answer with an emphatic YES ! The percentage of "prospects" that bear fruit vs. those that do not is telling. For every Doyle Alexander trade for John Smoltz there are 50 where the better player at the moment helped the team he went to become better. The key with any trade, whether for bullpen or starting pitching or both, is that it has to be part of the team for more than just 2022.
  4. I had not considered a 3-team deal and had actually not considered Kepler going to the Padres. If we're looking at the Reds or A's, they wouldn't want Kepler. They'd want Kirilloff or Larnach. The Padres however, want to win NOW and would be very interested in someone like Kepler. I'm just not sure with a guy like Snell. His velocity and stuff appear to be as good as his Cy Young season, but the results are a far cry form it. Obviously, if you get "Cy Young Snell" it's a brilliant trade. But what he seems to be right now is nowhere near that. I do get the sense however that someone among Kepler, Kirilloff or Larnach may be the key piece in a trade to bring back a front line pitcher. I think Snell is too risky and other targets are more likely. I just can't see the Twins taking on the contract of Yu Darvish either.
  5. Looking at MLB Trade Values, Rogers is still valued at 60.4 at 24 years old. (that's no diminishment of value at all) That would cost you Larnach AND Miranda for equal value. That's a pretty hefty price. Rogers still has outstanding stuff and would unquestionably be our Ace going forward. The key is discovering why he's been pretty crummy this year and "fixing" him. I'd have to have a definite idea what it would take to "fix him" before I would make that deal. But he's younger, has more cost controlled years and possibly more talented than Montas/Castillo. And he's Left handed ! I'm not interested in Hendricks at all. The Yankee and Astro lineups would eat him alive. Marquez is intriguing. He's gone from a value of 60.0 not that long ago to now just 16.1. He's 27 years old and still has good stuff. You could get him for Miranda even up. One thing I will say about Marquez is that he's a horse ! He is a 200 inning pitcher and may just need to get away from Coors to rediscover his confidence. He may not project as a #1 or even a #2 but he could be a solid #3 who eats innings and helps keep your BP from getting overworked.
  6. I think it's time to get Kirilloff up. I like BOTH Larnach and Kiriloff, but Kirilloff has always had the bigger upside. I've always felt that at some point, BOTH would show themselves to be solid major league hitters and that because of Kepler, eventually, one would need to be traded for a player who could help the team more...like a SS or a SP. With Correa, I don't see us trading for a SS. Larnach profiles as a Jesse Winker type player and I'd think both the A's and the Reds would be interested in him as part of a Montas or Castillo deal. Either of those pitchers would lead our rotation and give us somebody who could be counted on to consistently throw close to 7 innings a start. That takes a little pressure off the BP and deepens the rotation. A top 3 of Montas/Castillo with Ryan and Gray is something I'd be confident in going into a playoff series. And I agree with the prevailing sentiment on TD. Why not get a scorching hot Kirilloff up and into the Twins lineup NOW (or at least very soon). He should probably slot into the 5 or 6 spot in that lineup and could even be our #3 at some point if he keeps raking. ANY lineup could benefit from THAT type of hitter.
  7. I certainly think Miranda is a trade chip and would use him in a trade for either Montas or Castillo. I'd hang onto Steer if I dealt Miranda just to have a little backstop for prospects and because I think Steer is undervalued as a prospect (at least according to MLB Trade Values). I think a package of Miranda and Ober (once healthy) could be the foundation of a deal to bring a Montas or Castillo to the Twins. I'd hate to give up either one, but you've gotta give something of value to get something of value. Ober would step into either the A's or Reds rotation and Miranda would step into either of their lineups. Miranda's position versatility would get him into the lineup at either 3B, 1B or DH. Plenty of opportunities. However, to do this, the Twins FO would need to lock Montas or Castillo up for a minimum of 5 years at equal to Berrios money or a little higher. I believe both Montas and Castillo are superior pitchers to Berrios, so I'd pay the freight to get that SP #1 with Ace potential to front my rotation.
  8. I would still be looking for a SP (Montas ?) so that Archer could fill that long/middle guy role and a closer like Lopez or Bednar so that I could double up with Duran and whomever that would be. Better pitchers with better stuff (back end types) push everyone in the pen down a peg. But I'm also looking for guys I would have for the rest of this year and beyond. I'm not making any trades that are a short term rental unless I "steal" the guy. The trade has to be made for the "now" and the future.
  9. I'm with Greglw3 on this. Correa is a franchise player. The kind of guy a team should build around. I know Pena is doing well for the Astros, but franchise SS's just aren't the type of player a team should just let walk. If the goal is to win a World Series then the Twins need to sign him long term. Buxton is a superstar talent who the team feels can't play more than 100 games in a season. The Twins signed him to a contract that protects them as well as Buxton. In other words, it's "affordable." If there is ONE position I'd be willing to shell out $30 million a year it would be for a SS who is the league's Platinum Gold Glove winner and who has a proven record of Post-Season Heroics. Correa is THAT GUY. A team with Correa, Buxton, Polanco, Kirilloff, Larnach, Royce Lewis and Arraez as it offensive/defensive core with the young pitching coming up SHOULD be able to compete for 5-10 years. When you have a franchise player like Buxton, who may or may not be in the lineup on any given day, you need a true superstar like Correa to provide that leadership and stability every day. I'll still take whatever Buxton can give me. But I want and need Correa to be the foundation everything is built on. I say we take full advantage of Houston's "mistake."
  10. I don't think so. I'd have to see more from Thor to warrant my interest. The low K rate concerns me and we've got enough 5-inning max starters as it is. The Twins need a #1 who they can count on for 7 innings virtually every start. Thor, at best, would be Archer 2.0.
  11. I think we CAN compete. The Yankee series showed that. It also exposed our inherent flaws that make us vulnerable to being swept out of the playoff (yet again). The Astros pretty much handed us our heads earlier, but we're not really THAT far away from competing with them. Past Twins FO's (after 1991) and I'm speaking primarily of the Terry Ryan years 2002-2010 or so (and to another degree 2019) have never made moves that would have put the team over the top. That's what I would like to see done differently by the current FO while still guarding some of those top prospects. They've already shown they are "somewhat" capable of that with the Petty for Sonny Gray deal. (and with the Correa signing). I'd like to see what else they could do.
  12. I had posted a Montas trade on TD yesterday in which Steer was part of a deal for Montas. I think Steer's 3.30 "value" as currently rendered is too low and I would think the A's would be interested in him. I don't think the Twins need to acquire TWO SP's. One of Montas/Castillo/Mahle would be sufficient for this year/future years for me. With the emergence of Smeltzer and the eventual return of Maeda, Paddock etc...I think the Twins have plenty of good SP options for 2022 and beyond. What is needed is a STUD #1 which Montas or Castillo could provide. They also could really use TWO bullpen pieces to lengthen out the pen. I'm advocating for Jose Lopez (Baltimore) and AJ Puk (as part of a Montas trade). There are certainly interesting options elsewhere, but those are the two I've put forth as being good fits and reasonable assets that wouldn't be prohibitively expensive. The Twins have a number of young players that look like they are ready to contribute at the major league level right now or very soon. It's time leverage this into some acquisitions to help the team this year as well as future years. I'm not into one-year rentals THIS year. Maybe in the future I would be. But for this team, in 2022, I'm looking for this year benefits as well as the future.
  13. Yes jorgenswest, that is essentially what I am saying. They have a LOT of young talent that is starting to contribute and looks like true Major league talent, not just "a prospect with potential." Any trade the FO makes has to be made with the intent of making the team better this year, but also for 2023 and beyond. A Montas or Castillo would absolutely need to be signed to a 4-5 year extension. They simply can't give away a Larnach/Kiriloff, Miranda, Ober, Winder, Martin etc...without making sure that the guy they get back is leading our rotation for several more years. Bullpen pieces like Puk and Lopez would also be key. I know bullpen's are somewhat volatile from year to year. But arms like Lopez and Puk should provide stability in the future as well. Lopez and Puk would also allow the Twins more flexibility with guys like Duran and Canterino. Can Duran and Canterino become starting pitchers? If they can, their "value" skyrockets. If not, they would just add to a bullpen with electric arms and power stuff. One guy that nobody talks about anymore is Miguel Sano. With Kirilloff, Arraez, Miranda for 1B and each of these guys along with Sanchez and others for DH, where does Sano fit on this team ? I would offer that he doesn't. The problem with Sano is that he's a negative trade piece right now based on his $10-$12 million contract. Who would want him ? Much like Donaldson, he's a guy with offensive potential but a contract that impedes his tradability. I've always thought Colorado or Boston would be good fits for Sano, but haven't spent anytime trying to see what a trade via MLB Trade Values would look like. But essentially, the Twins could have Correa on this team for this year for certain. After this year, it's all speculation and crystal ball type stuff. As long as Correa is my SS I'm trying to win NOW. The guy is just too good of a post-season player to take for granted. The Yankees look epically good this year (and man, that's saying something when you're talking about the Yankees). The Astros look tough with that lineup and a Hall of Fame Verlander fronting the staff. The Dodgers, as always are loaded. But baseball is a funny game. who expected the BRAVES to emerge as last years World Series Champion ??? Get in the playoffs and see what happens !
  14. It's not just that Kirilloff is hitting for a high average. It's that his power is there. I, for one, would love to see him called up and rotated between 1B, LF/RF and DH. With the majority of pitching being RH he should be in line for plenty of AB's. Kepler is having a better year and that's good to see. Less power than we'd like, but better AB's. Larnach and Kirilloff are somewhat redundant but there would be nothing wrong with having all three in the lineup together. But a GOOD Kirilloff along with an up and coming Larnach really gives the Twins options in a possible trade package to bring a Montas/Castillo level starter to the rotation. Also, I agree with FlyingFinn, any word on Balazovic ? Is it an injury ? Or something else ? This guy has so much promise!! But like Duran, Ryan, Winder etc...he's got to be healthy to realize that promise.
  15. There is no way to "read the minds" of our own FO much less the minds of other teams FO's. You can use MLB Trade Values to "create" a trade but it's all just speculation (but still fun to plot anyway). I believe the Twins SHOULD make a deal and spend some of that prospect capital not just for this season but to build beyond this season. Any deal for a Montas or Luis Castillo needs to be made with a commitment to sign Montas/Castillo to a fair, long term (5 years or so) contract upon making the trade. That said, here are two deals that would help the Twins this year and beyond: Twins Get: Montas 37.00 and AJ Puk .50 A's Get: Ober 15.8, Miranda 16.50 Steer 3.30 Wallner 3.00 and Strotman 1.50 The Trade favors Oakland 40.10 to 37.50. The Twins will need to over pay to win the bidding war for a Montas caliber pitcher. Oakland gets a SP, 1B/3B, 2B/3B, OF and RP at various stages of providing immediate talent to their major league roster and future talent. Steer for example, is vastly under-valued at 3.30 right now in my opinion. He's tearing up AA and AAA. He's ready for a promotion. Would the A's see it the same way ? Hard to say. But Montas steps into the #1 slot and Puk provides another lefty in the pen. Trade #2 Twins Get: Jose Lopez RP Baltimore .80 and Carmona 1.10 (a low level, somewhat low ceiling minor league 3B) Orioles Get: Cavaco 3B 2.40 The Orioles win this trade 2.40 to 1.9. I actually think Lopez is undervalued as I think he's found a home as the Orioles closer and his stuff plays well at the back end. Frankly, I'd make this trade even more one-sided and remove Carmona if I had to. Lopez gives the Twins another option to close on days Duran can't and a good 8th inning option as well. It pushes everybody but Duran back one slot. Baltimore get a high upside guy who may benefit from a change of scenery. Just the type of trade Baltimore needs to make. The trades may be laughable to some. But they work on the MLB trade Simulator and there is at least "some" logic for either side to consider pulling the trigger.
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