TopGunn#22

What I glean from the projected salaries for Jeffers tells me at worst...the Twins are going to get a comp pick at the end of round #1 (meaning the contract Jeffers signs will surpass $50 million in total). It also means that teams like the Yankees and Cubs will probably out spend us. Scott Boras does not give hometown discounts. So I think Ryan Jeffers is as good as gone. The logic why we should fight to bring him back as stated by several posters is sound. I just don't see the Twins winning a bidding war for Jeffers. So this leaves the Twins with a BIG NEED to have a PLAN for how they are going to fill this hole at Catcher. The Twins must realize that Caratini should be the back up. Who are the potential Catchers the Twins could make a trade for that could be counted on to be their #1 Catcher for 2 years (2027 & 2028)? The "plan" should be to bring in a guy that shoulders the bulk of the load and who sometime in 2028 steps back to make way for Vahn Lackey. This allows the Twins to trade Caratini either before the 2027 season begins or at the deadline, and then either way, just be done with Caratini well before the 2028 season. By that time Lackey will be in place and possibly Tait as well. Tinney will be a 1B who could play Catcher in a pinch, kind of like Ben Rice for the Yankees. So eventually, we need to see a list provided by the writers at TD of Catchers who could be acquired in a trade this off season. Teel, Davis, Quero, Susac, Campusano. A deep dive on these possible targets and what a trade for each of them could possibly look like.

The Twins are not constructed at this time to benefit from a "Full Time DH." Last year with Bell worked, but he WAS signed to be a 1B and occasional DH. Finally using him as a "Full Time DH" was, as Riverbrian so aptly put it..."done out of necessity." Buxton may well need to DH a lot coming out of Spring Training depending on his recovery from surgery. Keaschall will probably work very hard on OF defense this winter but at this time, he will not be the equal of Jenkins, E-Rod or Roden in the OF. Keaschall will probably be the full time leadoff hitter in the 2027 Twins lineup, so if Buxton opens the season on the IL or becomes the full time DH for the first month of the season, Keaschall will be getting AB's either as a DH or 3rd/4th OF, Keaschall WILL be at the top of the order. As a switch hitter who was fairly good from both sides of the plate, Bell was solid as a DH. Kind of like a Reggie Smith/Ken Singleton vibe without the OF defense of Smith. But the best outlook for Twins has multiple players cycling through the DH spot once Buxton is healthy enough to play the OF 4 times a week.

Clemens has proven himself to be a capable player. He's a better Utility guy than Castro ever was and he has greater defensive versatility. I'm O.K. adding a RH option at 1B to be used in a platoon with Clemens. Goldschmidt and Mountcastle fill that role. Ty France would be a better signing He would be a more regular 1B hitting against RH pitchers as well as LHP's with Clemens playing 1B against specific LHP's to give France a day off. I would prefer the Ty France route and just play Clemens at 2B the majority of the time and sit Clemens against LHP. I expect Marek Houston to rise to the challenge at AAA St. Paul and starting about June 1st, to be in the conversation for a call up. It very well could take until July 1st, but the longer range plan would be to have Lee-3B, Houston-SS, Culpepper-2B and then a Ty France/Cody Clemens 1B. That would be pretty darn good IF defense. With Jenkins and E-Rod replacing the Larnach/Wallner spots, and incremental improvement from Keaschall, (and Buxton of course) the overall, IF/OF defense would improve quite a bit. I don't think you can minimize what Marek Houston will bring to the overall defensive improvement of the Twins. Jazz Chisholm is not the answer. Brandon Lowe will be too expensive. I think Gleybor Torrez is slipping defensively. Ty France would cement Clemens at 2B for the first 2 or 3 months of the season with occasional starts at 1B against a tough RHP. And it leaves the door open for a Marek Houston promotion that will be a difference maker.

The ceiling for Debarge is as a Utility Infielder. He's got the Glove. While I'm encouraged by the swing adjustment, teams don't always send their best to the AFL anymore. The offense will always be a question and the strikeout rate is an issue. But if you're looking for a utility infielder with a great glove and speed...? Then Debarge has a chance to be that guy. He's got to prove himself at AA and then at AAA. That's at least 2-3 years from today.

If I'm being sensible, I can't see the Twins going for Bednar, no matter how much Shelton loves him due to the draft compensation and the fact that as good as he was, the Yankees will NOT let him leave. Morejon also requires draft compensation and is not a Closer. Guys like Iglesias and maybe Ryan Helsley with the Orioles would be good targets. Maybe even Kenley Jansen, who while no where near as dominant as he once once has a proven track record of closing games. I agree that having Hoffman as the set up guy that could close when needed is the best role for him. I like Gomez in the 7th inning. Now, if I'm being just a bit NOT sensible, I look at the track record of Iglesias and I say $15-$17 million for a one-year contract makes perfect sense. Especially if the plan (assuming the Twins actually HAVE a plan) is to entertain offers on Joe Ryan but keep him unless a team makes an offer too good to turn down. With a starting rotation of Ryan, Lopez, Bradley, Prielipp and Abel, a BP anchored by Iglesias and Hoffman is very close to the Duran/Jax years. The Braves may let Iglesias walk because they have a bevy of younger RP's ready and Robert Suarez, 2 years younger than Iglesias at 35 was challenging for the Closer role last year already. So if I'm being completely non-sensical, and I consider the stellar track record of Iglesias, maybe I'm the only team that offers him a 2-year contract for $10 million annually. Maybe $12 million annually. The Twins may need to do something like that to set them apart from all the one-year offers Iglesias will get. I refuse to let the star-crossed signing of Addison reed deter me from this plan. Reed was never on the level of a guy like Iglesias. The Twins need to focus on improving the team, not dwell on the failures of the past.

I want the Twins to continue with Prielipp as a SP. But I envision Rojas as a Tommy Hall kind of Swing-Man. A guy who can pitch 2 innings, maybe 3 if he's efficient, and give you a spot start on occasion. That's how the Twins used Tommy Hall in 1969-1970 and he was very good in that role. Rojas has great stuff but really needs to become more consistent with his command. I'd like him on the MLB roster and logging about 80-90 innings as a long reliever/spot SP. With Ryan/Lopez/Bradley/Abel and Prielipp as the top 5 and Matthews and Dean Kremer there is depth. Ober should be traded. Festa might finally surprise us and stay healthy. Matthews is also a guy who is a RH version of Rojas. Both of them could be long relief/spot starts to give the Twins bullpen and rotation some flexibility. Trading Joe Ryan would need to bring a SP back or an affordable FA SP addition. But I think the Twins hang onto Ryan and possibly deal him at the deadline if we are not contending.

I agree it was a no-brainer to offer Jeffers, and what the heck, it's just a one-year contract. There is almost no risk to offering. Catcher is a big issue for 2027, even if Caratini DOES bounce back to a degree, which I think he will. But Tom Pohlad needs to put his money where his mouth has been and get the Twins closer to what may become a negotiated "salary floor" even if that concept isn't applied until 2028. The Twins will either have Jeffers for a 2027 bridge year for Lackey, or they will receive some sort of draft compensation. I think the idea of offering Jeffers 3-years, $45 million or 3-years and $50 million is also a good idea. An offer like that could push the Yankees or Cubs to make an offer that easily clears $50 million and that pushes the Twins draft compensation to end of 1st round. Having Jeffers around for 3 more years is not necessarily a BAD option. I would pursue RP options that do not include Bednar and Morejon. There are other good options that would not take a draft pick away from the Twins.

Offering Jeffers the qualifying offer was the easy and logical first step. If he accepts, it's a sizable investment, but only for one season, and as others have pointed out, if there is an extended lockout, the Twins will see that $23 million dollar figure diminish as the lockout drags on. If he accepts, the Twins have solidified their catching position for at least whatever baseball gets played in 2027. That, and improved health of the SP staff and impact improvement from rookies like Jenkins, Culpepper, E-Rod and eventually Marek Houston gives the Twins an encouraging chance to be very competitive in the A.L. Central. Jeffers may not be a good pitch framer, but who cares? With the ABS system, Jeffers IS a very effective pitch challenger. To me, that's far more important than a skill that is by and large useless going forward. Having Jeffers for 2027 plugs their biggest hole for 2027. I wouldn't offer him longer than a 2-year deal, which is why he and Boras will probably decline and sign a contract for greater than $50 million with the Yankees. If Jeffers refuses, I think it's quite likely that the Twins get a high comp pick at the end of round #1. The draft is always a crap-shoot, but I'll take that extra pick that high in the draft anytime. This also gives Tom and Jeremy at least theoretically, another $23 million to improve the current roster, either by signing free agents, or making a trade that takes on some salary.

With 5 of our top 20 prospects catchers I wonder if the Twins would be willing to include one of their young catchers in a trade to acquire an MLB catcher? I wouldn't deal Lackey or Tinney, but I might consider one of Tait, Diaw or Jimenez in a package. I've got to believe there are several MLB teams who aren't satisfied with the catching talent in their minor leagues and would have interest.

Great points Teflon !! I'm really enjoying these articles. Everyone remembers Killebrew, Carew, Oliva and Puckett. This series digs a little deeper and remembers certain players for specific reasons and how they helped make the Twins an entertaining and good baseball team. Allison and Pascual were home grown, having moved with the Senators franchise to Minnesota. The Twins got Tovar from the Reds for LHP Gerry Arrigo in a trade the Twins clearly won. Tovar (nicknamed "Pepe" by his teammates) was always one of my favorite Twins. Battey was acquired along with Don Mincher in a trade with the White Sox for slugger Roy Sievers. The Twins needed a catcher and had an abundance of RH hitting sluggers (Killebrew, Allison) so they dealt Sievers for a future All Star and GG catcher and LH power hitter in Mincher. Another good trade made by the ballclub. The off season is upon us and labor strife awaits. I wonder what trades the Twins could make that could help us contend in 2027.

It's really too bad the Twins couldn't complete the Larnach for Abreu trade at the trade deadline, but if I was the Astros owner, I wouldn't have just vetoed the trade, I'd have fired the FO for even considering it. It would have been a steal for the Twins. MeleMouth makes a good point. A deeper dive on Abreu would be helpful. But I just gotta say, this kid has been lights out for 5 consecutive years. The Twins would still have had to wrestle for him in FA for next season even if we had succeeded in acquiring him, but I think he's an excellent target. He's always walked more guys than you would like. But he generally throws about 70 innings a season and strikes out about 90. That's pretty good. Chembry's suggestion of Evan Phillips is also good. So it comes down to cost Spotrac estimates Abreu (30 years old) to cost around $10-$11 million per year for 2-3 years. Phillips (32 years old) is estimated to get $9 to $10 million per year, probably a maximum of only 2 years. I guess I'd rather invest in the slightly younger Abreu but either would be a NICE addition. One of the reasons the Twins dismantled a pretty good BP was COST. Duran and Jax were in line for some healthy raises. Duran should have been extended if the Twins REALLY thought they were going to be contenders. Jax wanted to be a SP and he did a pretty credible job for the Rays. Would it have been better to just keep Duran and Jax? Probably. But the Twins are going to have to spend some serious money to bring in an Abreu and a Vesia or Minter. At least we got Taj Bradley for Jax (good trade) and Abel and Tait for Duran.

jmlease, I think you missed the point I was trying to make, which is probably on me for not explaining it well enough. When a team hits 307 HR's, no one would expect them to lead the league in SB's or even be middle of the pack. But that first season with Rocco set a tone and philosophy that the Twins would just out slug other teams. With power such a sought after commodity, and expensive as well, it was never a sustainable model. I don't disagree with the points you made, in fact I agree. Guys like Kepler, Polanco and Rosario could have run more, but how that would have improved a team that struck out a lot is questionable. But year after year, the Twins just didn't add any players who were capable of supplying speed or even a higher level of defense to their lineup or bench. And even after the rule changes to enhance and encourage the running game were instituted, Rocco was extremely slow to react. Willi Castro kind of lit the fire somewhat in the 2nd half of 2023 but the Twins under Rocco just generally ignored the SB. We never added a player like David Hamilton or Chandler Simpson who could pressure a team in late game situations as a pinch runner. The Brewers employ David Hamilton at 3B. A generally accepted "power" position. Would the Twins, under Rocco, ever play a 3B with a .650 OPS and 4 HR's but 30 SB's at 3B? Probably not. When Cesar Tovar joined the Twins he played 70 games at 3B in 1967 and 78 in 1968. Killebrew was primarily playing 1B with a little Rich Reese here and there. I don't know what kind of manager Rocco was in the minor leagues. But as a major league manager, he didn't believe in the running game. If the Twins weren't drafting or developing speed as you say, that's on the FO for sure, but was Rocco requesting some speed and defense guys be included in drafting and developing or had he bought into the 3 run HR or a strikeout and 2 men LOB philosophy? The game has changed a little from 2019 and Rocco will probably get another chance to manage somewhere. It will be interesting to see how Rocco approaches his lineup. I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt, but my gut tells me speed will not be a priority to him.

I've often remarked on TD that as fun as the 2019 season was for the Twins it totally messed up their philosophy going forward and certainly damaged Rocco as a manager from the end of that season onward. How else can you explain Rocco being completely unwilling to steal a base, even after the rules were changed to improve the success of base stealing? The Twins in the post Andy McPhail era have never demonstrated an off season or trade deadline "plan." They never seemed to identify a specific need and strategy to fill that need, whether it be a FA or a trade. Nelson Cruz was a late spring training addition. He wasn't somebody the Twins identified early, prioritized, and then went out and got. Can anyone name the best trade deadline deal the Twins made in the Mauer-Morneau-Santana-Nathan-Hunter era? A trade for an impact player to help the Twins win a playoff series? Remember, that star-studded team never even won a single playoff game. The ability of the Brewers, Rays and Cleveland to trade established, star level players for prospects and develop those prospects (rinse and repeat) is what has really separated them from the Twins. The example of Ryan Jeffers and Joe Ryan not being traded at the most advantageous time is as good as it gets for a comparison. I had mentioned in a previous post a couple days ago that the value in "trading" is that you get to identify and acquire a specific player or players that fill obvious weaknesses on your ball club. When you draft, it's all about projectability. When you trade, projectability is part of the equation, but the strengths a player has that you've identified your team needing have manifested themselves more clearly. I don't see Jeremy Zoll as any kind of improvement in what the Twins have had for the last 20-25 years. Until the Pohlad family finally sells and new owners re-hire a completely different front office I don't trust the Twins to make the right kind of trades to reconfigure this roster into a contender. I think with future talent like Jenkins, Lackey, Houston. Culpepper, and current guys like Keaschall and Lee there is a chance they could be good. Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Zebby and others need to stay healthy and take big steps forward as well. But teams like the Brewers, Rays and Cleveland are just better at trading than the Twins are at this time.

The 3 pitchers suggested were excellent. I would have included Mick Abel as well because while his health is the 1 thing that has held him back, he has tantalized with his stuff. As we approach the off season, I'm O.K. with Ryan, Lopez and Taj Bradley as #1-#3 but I'm also interested in seeing what a Joe Ryan trade could bring back. In other words, I wouldn't be opposed to those three at the top, but I think 2027 should be a year devoted to young talent, so I'm also not opposed to a Joe Ryan trade if the return is good. For both Zebby and Rojas, I don't think they need to be completely defined at this point. A mix of starting AND relieving for both would be O.K. with me. Depending on what we would get back in talent with various trades, we may have other arms that would be in the mix. The hope is that the new pitching coach can improve the command of guys like Matthews and Rojas and just make them better pitchers in general.

I agree wholeheartedly David Maro !! It's time to move on from a significant portion (33% sounds about right) of the 40 man roster. There are guys on it who are clearly not part of the long term plan and several of those guys are also no longer part of what should be the short term plan (2027 & 2028). As I said before, there are plenty of players who have not performed up to expectations on every other major league ballclub. It's time to play the lottery with them. I'm not suggesting the Twins will uncover a bunch of Johan Santana/David Ortiz types, but there are certainly some players out there who could use a change of scenery. The Twins should be prepared to accept a player or 2 to move on and do O.K. We had Jeff Hoffman in camp a couple years ago and let him walk. Maybe Trevor Larnach or Bailey Ober or Royce Lewis catch lightening in a bottle. Maybe, maybe not. But it's time to move on, get what we can in trades and turn the page. At least when you trade guys you can be very specific about the guys you're looking to get back. A 1B, a catcher, a guy like Jordan Lawler that can play OF or IF who is a RH bat, a bullpen or SP with potential. And again, the Twins are not the only team in MLB who have 40 man issues like this. We have an abundance of catching talent in the minors right now. Every team in MLB would be interested in adding a young catcher. The Twins should be prepared to include someone like Tait, Diaw or Jimenez in a trade to bring something pretty good back. An electric arm with command issues the Twins think they can fix. A 1B blocked from the major league roster by an All Star. A catcher who is already in the MLB but who's getting displaced by a top prospect (like Campusano in San Diego). It's time to fully embrace the youth movement while still maintaining a competitive team. The bar is pretty low to be competitive in the A.L. Central. Not having Lewis, Ober, Larnach, Wallner and others doesn't necessarily make the Twins un-competitive. Especially if they make some shrewd deals to reconfigure the roster. There will be good days and bad days with a heavy emphasis on young talent. But the payoff down the road is what the Twins should be looking at.