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TopGunn#22

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TopGunn#22 last won the day on February 23

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About TopGunn#22

  • Birthday 05/09/1958

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    Twins fan since 1964. I was 6 at the time.
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    General Sales Manager KAAL-TV

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    Sports, Politics and Music

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  1. I've thought about this a bit. Nothing frustrates me more watching the Twins than Max Kepler's inability to make teams PAY for shifting on him (well, maybe Colome closing and Shoemaker/Happ). If I just go by what Baseball trade Values has for Kepler his value has fallen too much to be any kind of a factor in a trade except as a thrown in. He's worth more than that to the Twins. I just can't buy the idea that he can't play CF because the Twins don't want to "wear him down." Come on. Should the Giants have played Willie Mays in the prime of his career in RF so they wouldn't "wear him out"??? Anyway, I'm fine with Max in RF and subbing in CF when Buxton gets hurt. But someone (a NEW hitting coach??) needs to work on his approach. When the "D" is GIVING you a hit if you can just push it to the left side, you NEED to adjust. It's not like Max is Joey Gallo (38 HR's). He needs to learn to push a bunt down the 3B line and go with an outside pitch. Heck, there's nothing wrong with DOUBLES. I could certainly see a platoon with a RH hitting OF'er as well. Until we see more positive things from Kiriloff & Larnach I would hold onto Max and work on his approach. I'd be more open to trading Arraez (who Rocco refuses to hit leadoff consistently) and Arraez has much more value as a trade piece with other prospects coming up who can play 2B, 3B, LF at the same value as Arraez.
  2. I think the term "Ace" gets thrown around waaaay to much. At least what I define as an "Ace." To me, an "Ace" is Sandy Koufax, Bob Gibson, Juan Marichal, Jim Palmer, Steve Carlton. Nowadays, that "Ace" is Max Scherzer, Jacob deGrom, Gerritt Cole, there are a couple more, but it's a short list. Berrios is NOT an "Ace" but he's a very capable. But as I've maintained, he's never had a season like Robbie Ray is having this year, or Rodon or Gausman. Most contending teams must have a pitcher at the head of their rotation who fits this profile...unless you're the Dodgers and you've got like...FOUR !! If the Twins wouldn't pay Berrios the $20 or so million per year he wanted, they'll need to find somebody who will provide MORE than Jose did at that price this off-season. They have some talented young pitchers in the pipeline, but they need to sign and or trade for a #1, #2 and #3 even if the #3 is a Pineda reunion because there's too much uncertainty with young pitchers and young pitchers always get babied with how many innings they pitch. They probably can't count on Ryan and Ober giving them 160-175 innings next year. They need THREE SP's. (anything Dobnak gives them would be a bonus). Berrios is NOT an "Ace" but he's a solid pitcher. Robbie Ray will pitch game #1 for Toronto. That tells you all you need to know about Robbie Ray vs Berrios. Ryu or Berrios will pitch games #2 & #3 (if there are games #2 & #3 for Toronto).
  3. I would say Kepler is a possibility, but a radical change in his approach has to happen. Not sure if max is being "stubborn" or if the hitting coach should be replaced, but if max looks back on this season (and 2020) and doesn't realize he's playing himself out of a starting position (on the Twins or any other team) he's not as smart as i thought he was. The Twins can't trade Kepler, because his value has crash-landed. They have to hang onto him at least for 2021. Jeffers may be a bounce back candidate, but with Garver and Rortvedt, I see Jeffers being traded for pitching. To Miami. Simmons and cave will need to bounce back with some other team. They need to be released. Arraez could be a candidate, but I'm looking at options to trade him for pitching. Arizona is a possibility. Gordon and Austin Martin can be the utility players. Arraez needs to be leveraged for pitching. Garver is someone I would look to have a better season in 2021. Time is running out on Sano. Next year needs to be his .240 40 HR's 100 RBI year. Maybe it's for us. Maybe it's for Colorado.
  4. That's what I've been thinking Max should be doing for some time. He does run well. Sacrifice some "power' to make more consistent "contact" and he'd be an improvement. If I pencil in Pineada #4, Ryan #4 and Ober #5 that means I need to sign a top flight SP as my #1 (Rodan, Ray, Stoman, Gausman) and I need to trade for my #2. (Alcantara, Montas, Bassitt). If I could somehow acquire an Eduardo Rodriguez or James Kaprillian I would have some "depth" while still having a Dobnak or Gant around. With this approach, I can see how things look for Balazovic, Winder, et al next season and if they're ready move em' up. I also still wonder, that while Sano is looking better, doesn't that also make him at least a LITTLE more viable as a trade candidate ? Not sure what Cron's status in Colorado is after this season, but if the DH comes to the N.L. I think the Rockies could be very intrigued with Sano's potential mashing at Coors. Maybe a blockbuster for Marquez ? Settle for a solid vet arm like Jon Gray ? I'd have to monitor the trade values, because I believe Sano is currently a negative but maybe Sano can get out from being underwater and a deal could be made. An outfielder like Connor Joe is interesting to consider from the Rockies as well.
  5. Cody, I like the premise of your article and the discussion has been stimulating. I would lean toward tony&rodney, Mike Sixel and others in that while each of these 3 are interesting, I want to sign a top arm (Rodon, Robbie Ray, Gausman) and trade for ESTABLISHED SP's (Alcantara, Marquez, Lauer), perhaps a pitcher of two from the A's (Montas, Kaprillian, Bassitt). We've established that there will probably be a payroll of $125-$140 million (if the ownership and FO deems a contending team is necessary next season---and they better). We could use a complete list of FA pitchers (both SP's and RP's) as well as a nice list of speculative trade options. I'm not good at providing that. The FA's should have an estimated "cost" attached to them. (Rodon or ray 5-years $125 million). In my estimation, those two have done more this season than Berrios ever has. They would be worth the $125 million. We can speculate all we want on what it would take to acquire Sandy Alcantara and/or Frankie Montas via trade by using something like Baseball Trade Values. But with ALL the young pitchers we have striving to reach the big leagues and with "health" a factor for many of them looking to 2022, I'd rather focus on getting SP's with solid big league credentials as opposed to a "project." We have plenty of "projects." Much like needing a SS to either be the "bridge' to Lewis or a longer term fix if Lewis is OF bound, we need some solid major league pitchers who will give the FO time to sort out who will "make it" from the prospects and who probably won't. Pitching is a fungible asset (much like QB's in football). You can never have enough, and if you have an excess, you can always trade them to shore up other areas (much like the Marlins could this off-season, or the A's/Tampa Bay).
  6. gunnarthor, the Marlins would do this because they need a catcher for the future and they are loaded with arms. They are already playing Alfaro in LF because he's not very good defensively but shows the potential to be a decent hitter. If he was their catcher of the future, he'd be playing catcher exclusively. Jeffers is very good defensively and shows the potential to be a decent hitter. Larnach is the kind of high upside offensive player they would take a risk on (unlike Kepler, who just seems like he's hit a ceiling). The Twins (and I) do not like giving up young, controllable talent like Jeffers and Larnach, but we need a major league ready arm...NOW. And Alcantara would fit the bill. There's always a chance Miami says "no" and the Twins would have to look elsewhere. But as loaded with young arms as they are and with their need at catcher REALLY high as well as offense in general, I think a trade like like this has a chance. And from a Baseball Trade Values sense, it's fair.
  7. O.K. I'll give this a try: C Garver, Rortvedt 1B Kiriloff 2B Polanco 3B Donaldson SS FA C. Taylor, Galvis, Iglesias LF Arraez/Refsnyder/Rooker CF Buxton RF Kepler (his trade value is too low. Twins are better off sticking with him for now). DH Sano We will trade Jeffers 27.9 and Larnach 28.7 (56.6) total value to the Marlins for Sandy Alcantara (56.6 total value). Sign Danny Duffy SP. SP: Alcantara, Duffey, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Gant, Dobnak Sign or trade for a real closer: THAT GUY, Rogers, Duffey, Alcala, Theilbar, Minaya. I can see Austin Martin and Miranda being called up SOON (service time games).
  8. Good article Cody and good discussion. I also think the Twins keep him. While it would be nice to have a team take his salary off our hands if we accepted a middling prospect the ONLY way that would actually be favorable for the Twins would be if they invested the money saved into "top shelf" pitching (no Happ's, Shoemaker's or Colome's) or a starting SS. But he IS a solid bat in the lineup and he will be used at DH as well. It almost comes down to a Sano vs Donaldson question and as low as both players trade value is right now they are probably just better off hanging on to them. Doc Bauer is correct in pointing out that next year's trade deadline will be interesting. If the Twins are "contending" that would tell me that many of the pitching deficiencies have been addressed. it would also portend that our offense is getting what it needs out of Sano/Donaldson/Buxton and others. Unfortunately, I don't have a crystal ball so I don't know what the situation will be. But I see a Donaldson or Sano trade being much more likely at next year's trade deadline. But at this point, and depending on what our payroll limit is next year, we're better off keeping Donaldson.
  9. I just shake my head at the "approach" many Twins hitters have at the plate. And by that, I mean they DON'T seem to have any approach. Kepler is a prime example. The Twins need a new hitting coach in the worst way. I'm not saying that will "solve everything" but it's obvious to me the current coach is not up to the task. I agree with Doc that the offense has the "potential" to be fine next year and the primary focus HAS to be on pitching. That said, a different hitting coach would help with the current talent that needs "improvement" that being Kepler, Sano (who has been better these last 4-6 weeks) Garver, Kiriloff and Larnach. I do think a steady vet SS like Iglesias or Galvis as a bridge to Lewis/Martin or whoever, is a good idea as well as a 4th OF'er who bats RH. Those are minor moves but should be "on the list." I like the fact that Torres was suggested. It makes for a good conversation. But I would vote "No" as well. We need a glove at SS and that's not Gleybor.
  10. I agree with Doc. Why Arraez isn't hitting leadoff EVERY single game is beyond me. He sets the table. That's what leadoff guys are supposed to do. Rocco just can't seem to "get" that. Speaking of Rocco, what is this obsession with presenting Colome with save opportunity after save opportunity ? Any Twins fan who was SHOCKED Colome gave up the tying 3-run BOMB to Judge yesterday hasn't been paying attention. It was INEVITABLE. All he's done this year is give up HR's late in games. Why would we expect any other outcome. Test somebody else rather than just handing the ball to Colome. I will grant Sano his recent production. I was and still am all for trading him to somehow acquire better pitching. However, he's such a negative trade asset that we're probably better off keeping him and hitting him 7th. That kind of power near the bottom of your order can be beneficial.
  11. I still maintain that 2022 (and this coming off season) SHOULD be the make or break for this FO. They have done some good things. Our minor leagues are stocked with good, young pitching prospects. But in 5 years here they have had two epically BAD off seasons. They need to sign Buxton (he who bunts with 2 on and nobody out in the bottom of the 9th and nobody out) and sign one A+ FA starter, TRADE for one A+ starter, sign a middling vet for the #3 spot (a Pineda, Eduardo Rodriquez etc...type) and bring in a bona fide closer and sign a "bridge" SS until we have a better idea of what Lewis & Martin can do. That's their assignment. If they fail miserably they will have a 50% off season failure rate in 6 years and a change (I have no idea who, that's purely up to the Pohlad's to figure out) will be needed. Rocco is included in this. If you're going to make a change, make it a clean sweep.
  12. Speaking of bunting...with 2 on and nobody out in the 9th inning in Friday, 9/10's game, in what scenario is the BEST thing for Buxton to do but BUNT ??? Buxton is a terrible bunter. He's supposed to be a future MVP candidate and he's BUNTING with the winning run at 2B ? I would love to know if that was HIS bright idea or if it was a signal from the bench. If it was Buxton's, his psyche is too fragile. I know he's been slumping since he came back but geez !! Would Vlad jr, Soto, Tatis jr. Mookie, Trout, Ohtani, Tim Anderson, Freddie Freeman, et all BUNT ?? But back to winning off seasons. You can set your team up to effectively compete with a strategically successful off season or you can doom them to fail if you make boneheaded moves. As I've pointed out and will do so again: The White Sox signed Hendricks, Lynn and Keuchel. Our FO countered with Colome, Shoemaker and Happ. Game. Set. Match.
  13. I'm firmly on the fence with this FO. They DID inherit a solid core, and YEARS of BAD Twins teams under Terry Ryan had helped stock the minor leagues with high draft picks. This FO took a Twins team that Molitor miraculously guided to a playoff spot in 2016 (and earned him Manager of the Year) and then completely spit the bit in that off-season to gift Twins fans with the abomination that was 2017. They DID win back to back division titles in 2019 & 2020 but continued the Twins inability to even win ONE playoff game since the early 2000's (I would add that the FO's inability to make any kind of big splash in either 2019 or 2020 at the trade deadline didn't help either). And it's fair to point out that as a whole, the division was at a low point in those years. The division title was ripe for the taking. And now we see the fruits of a disastrous off season that saw our division rival White Sox completely checkmate us in every conceivable move, trade, acquisition. This FO has an "incomplete" report card. They COMPLETELY FAILED in 2017 and THIS year. A bad move here or there can be excused, in fact, should be expected and accepted. Nobody bats 1.000 in personnel decisions. But I maintain this FO has had those two real clunkers and frankly with "analytics" guiding us, I expected better. I didn't expect the two epic fails they've blessed Twins fans with in 2017 and this year. I maintain that "relevance" in 2022 is crucial, to the team, the fanbase and this FO. They better hit a HOMERUN this off season.
  14. He's pitching like his career depends on it. And it does. When you come out of nowhere (like Theilbar has) EVERY time you go to the mound is a chance for management to justify cutting you loose if you don't measure up. He certainly deserves a contract for next season. LH relief pitchers are a "commodity." I hope the Twins and Caleb can reach a deal that's fair.
  15. I agree Mike. It should make the job easier for the Twins FO to go out and sign a SOLID FA SP, TRADE for a SOLID SP and then dumpster dive like they usually do for a "serviceable" vet like a Pineda, Eduardo Rodriguez or a Dylan Bundy type (maybe Dobnak gets healthy). We've only seen a couple starts, but I like what I see. Except for one mistake pitch to the red hot Cubs rookie Schwindel, he's been VERY impressive. I think his slider is filthy, and as has been mentioned, his arm angle on his fastball makes his 91-94 mph SEEM faster. There sure is a fair amount of deception to his delivery. I hated to see Nellie Cruz go, but I knew he had to be traded. Not sure what we'll get with Strotman, but Ryan looks like a keeper. We will also have to wait and see how Balazovic, Duran, Canterino and Winder look this off-season and monitor their health closely.
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