Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

Greggory Masterson

Twins Daily Contributor
  • Posts

    799
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    2

Greggory Masterson last won the day on December 26 2025

Greggory Masterson had the most liked content!

2 Followers

Social

  • Twitter
    GreggTMasterson

Recent Profile Visitors

35,275 profile views

Greggory Masterson's Achievements

  1. The premise of the backend in this writeup is that a) Sabato could fill one of the most gaping holes on this roster, even if it’s minor and b) they aren’t using this roster spot efficiently anyway. Even beyond Jackson and Sabato, it’s unclear how they would use that spot efficiently, short of calling up Jenkins, who himself would be the 5th or 6th outfielder and would push Lewis or Keaschall out of the lineup vs RHP and is not good against lefties. Gonzalez could be another option, but he’s not hitting at AAA and would be filling the same role. If you have an internal option in mind, I’d love to hear it.
  2. I will counter this question with a question: how many teams carry a third catcher who has started one game at catcher in the last month
  3. The Twins only had 4 draft picks in 2020. Culpepper was a 2022 guy. They lost their 3rd round pick signing Josh Donaldson, and their second round pick was Alerick Soularie, who they cut in 2024
  4. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints (photo of Aaron Sabato) The Twins selected Aaron Sabato with the 27th pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and the first baseman has had a rough go of it in the seven seasons since then. However, now might be the time to finally give him the call. When you draft a player with the First Base Only tag, he has to hit. Sabato was the highest-drafted first baseman in 2020—a draft mired by the uncertainty of only having a few weeks of scouting for players whose seasons were shut down in March—mostly because Spencer Torkelson was drafted as a third baseman. Unfortunately, Sabato’s minor league career is littered with not hitting. Or at least not hitting enough. He’s got a pretty standard first-base-only profile: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of homers, a low batting average, and enough walks to keep his on-base percentage above water. That batting average has, for the most part, been low enough to keep him from being taken seriously as a prospect. Across six minor league seasons, he’s mustered just a .230 average and has struck out over 30% of the time. That type of hitter generally doesn’t have a long major league career, or one at all. But Sabato has managed to hang around in the Twins organization, and every season, he’ll have a few weeks in a row that lead fans to think he might finally be putting it together. This season is as close as we’ve gotten to the fabled “putting it together.” Sabato began the 2026 season—his age-27 season—with Triple-A St. Paul. He played sparingly, in just four of the team’s first 17 games, registering 14 plate appearances and striking out in seven of them. Then he started getting opportunities. Starting with a three-hit night on April 16, he played nine of the team’s final 13 April games, slashing .310/.375/.621 (.996) with three doubles and two home runs across 32 plate appearances. And he really hasn’t looked back. Since April 16th, when he started playing consistently, he’s hitting .293 with 47 extra-base hits (20 home runs) and an OPS of .961. Even factoring in those bad first handful of games, his OPS sits at .936. The International League is a high-offense league, so raw OPS can be deceiving, but he sits about 30% above league average by wRC+. His .287 batting average at Triple-A in 2026 is the best mark at any level of his career, outside of his .305 average in 39 games at Double-A last season. His next-best year-end average in a sample of more than 50 games was .245 last season at Triple-A. His wRC+ has only been this high twice—in 39 games at Double-A last season and in 22 games at High-A in 2021. This might be a fluke, or it might be a player in the prime of his career having found an approach that clicks. He’s managed to produce against fastballs, off-speed, and breaking pitches alike—though he’s absolutely feasted on fastballs, with a .326 average and .433 wOBA. He’s still swinging and missing plenty, but he’s cut his strikeout rate down to 24% this year (which will increase if he gets a call-up). He’s cut down his walks over the last two years, but that has been a product of a more aggressive approach with pitches both inside and outside of the zone. Even with a reduced walk rate, the improvement in his batting average has given him a .356 OBP on the year, better than any season of his career outside of Single-A. And he’s pulling the ball more than he ever has, with a pull air percentage of 17%, which is merely on the higher side of average (72nd percentile), but the best mark of his career. And contextually, he’s a great fit for the Twins right now. Sabato has a staggering 1.243 OPS against lefties this season, slashing .364/.470/.773 against southpaws. The major league club, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom five in baseball against left-handed pitchers in batting average, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. It’s dire, with only five Twins with more than 10 plate appearances who have been league-average or better performers against lefties (wRC+, where 100 is average, in parentheses): Ryan Jeffers (165), Austin Martin (124), Royce Lewis (117), Byron Buxton (104), Kody Clemens (103). And it’s not even close after that. The next-best hitter is Josh Bell, who has a .667 OPS that’s 14% below league average. Right now, Victor Caratini is being trusted with first base against lefties, and he’s following close behind with a .607 OPS against southpaws this season, 21% below league average. The two have accounted for 64% of the team’s plate appearances against lefties at first base and designated hitter. It would be foolish to sit here and say “Well Sabato couldn’t be worse!” because he absolutely could. If he’s walking less and his strikeout rate jumps in his transition to the majors, he can absolutely be worse. If MLB pitchers can attack him with offspeed and breaking pitches for strikes, they’ll take away his biggest strength, demolishing fastballs. And even when he gets fastballs, it’s unclear that he’ll be able to keep up with MLB velocity, as the average fastball he’s seen thus far this season is around 94 MPH. But the bar for him to clear isn’t that high. If he were to muster just league-average offense against lefties, he would be a significant addition to this lineup. And there’s plenty of room for him. Tristan Gray and Alex Jackson are currently on the big-league roster (or at least one of them is, pending Kaelen Culpepper's corresponding move), but they are rarely playing. Gray has started just three of nine games since replacing an injured Byron Buxton a week and a half ago. Jackson has started three games since Ryan Jeffers returned from injury on July 10th, two of which were at first base against a lefty (in very limited action versus lefties, Jackson has a .382 OPS across 24 plate appearances). It’s rare that a team could reasonably have room for a first baseman who would strictly fill the short side of a platoon, but the Twins are in that position now. Even after Culpepper's promotion, or if Walker Jenkins were to be called up, there could still be room for someone like Sabato to try to keep the line moving against lefties, if they valued a platoon hitter and didn’t bite on one of several potential right-handed bats currently designated for assignment. Or perhaps he could be their September position player call-up when the roster expands by one hitter and one pitcher. Sabato doesn’t have a high ceiling in the majors, and projection systems like ZiPS don’t forecast him being even an average hitter at a position you need to hit. But right now, what’s the risk in giving him a shot a few times a week against left-handed pitchers? And it would be fun—if you dig big dudes who ding dongs, anyway. View full article
  5. The Twins selected Aaron Sabato with the 27th pick in the 2020 MLB Draft, and the first baseman has had a rough go of it in the seven seasons since then. However, now might be the time to finally give him the call. When you draft a player with the First Base Only tag, he has to hit. Sabato was the highest-drafted first baseman in 2020—a draft mired by the uncertainty of only having a few weeks of scouting for players whose seasons were shut down in March—mostly because Spencer Torkelson was drafted as a third baseman. Unfortunately, Sabato’s minor league career is littered with not hitting. Or at least not hitting enough. He’s got a pretty standard first-base-only profile: a lot of strikeouts, a lot of homers, a low batting average, and enough walks to keep his on-base percentage above water. That batting average has, for the most part, been low enough to keep him from being taken seriously as a prospect. Across six minor league seasons, he’s mustered just a .230 average and has struck out over 30% of the time. That type of hitter generally doesn’t have a long major league career, or one at all. But Sabato has managed to hang around in the Twins organization, and every season, he’ll have a few weeks in a row that lead fans to think he might finally be putting it together. This season is as close as we’ve gotten to the fabled “putting it together.” Sabato began the 2026 season—his age-27 season—with Triple-A St. Paul. He played sparingly, in just four of the team’s first 17 games, registering 14 plate appearances and striking out in seven of them. Then he started getting opportunities. Starting with a three-hit night on April 16, he played nine of the team’s final 13 April games, slashing .310/.375/.621 (.996) with three doubles and two home runs across 32 plate appearances. And he really hasn’t looked back. Since April 16th, when he started playing consistently, he’s hitting .293 with 47 extra-base hits (20 home runs) and an OPS of .961. Even factoring in those bad first handful of games, his OPS sits at .936. The International League is a high-offense league, so raw OPS can be deceiving, but he sits about 30% above league average by wRC+. His .287 batting average at Triple-A in 2026 is the best mark at any level of his career, outside of his .305 average in 39 games at Double-A last season. His next-best year-end average in a sample of more than 50 games was .245 last season at Triple-A. His wRC+ has only been this high twice—in 39 games at Double-A last season and in 22 games at High-A in 2021. This might be a fluke, or it might be a player in the prime of his career having found an approach that clicks. He’s managed to produce against fastballs, off-speed, and breaking pitches alike—though he’s absolutely feasted on fastballs, with a .326 average and .433 wOBA. He’s still swinging and missing plenty, but he’s cut his strikeout rate down to 24% this year (which will increase if he gets a call-up). He’s cut down his walks over the last two years, but that has been a product of a more aggressive approach with pitches both inside and outside of the zone. Even with a reduced walk rate, the improvement in his batting average has given him a .356 OBP on the year, better than any season of his career outside of Single-A. And he’s pulling the ball more than he ever has, with a pull air percentage of 17%, which is merely on the higher side of average (72nd percentile), but the best mark of his career. And contextually, he’s a great fit for the Twins right now. Sabato has a staggering 1.243 OPS against lefties this season, slashing .364/.470/.773 against southpaws. The major league club, on the other hand, ranks in the bottom five in baseball against left-handed pitchers in batting average, OPS, wRC+, and wOBA. It’s dire, with only five Twins with more than 10 plate appearances who have been league-average or better performers against lefties (wRC+, where 100 is average, in parentheses): Ryan Jeffers (165), Austin Martin (124), Royce Lewis (117), Byron Buxton (104), Kody Clemens (103). And it’s not even close after that. The next-best hitter is Josh Bell, who has a .667 OPS that’s 14% below league average. Right now, Victor Caratini is being trusted with first base against lefties, and he’s following close behind with a .607 OPS against southpaws this season, 21% below league average. The two have accounted for 64% of the team’s plate appearances against lefties at first base and designated hitter. It would be foolish to sit here and say “Well Sabato couldn’t be worse!” because he absolutely could. If he’s walking less and his strikeout rate jumps in his transition to the majors, he can absolutely be worse. If MLB pitchers can attack him with offspeed and breaking pitches for strikes, they’ll take away his biggest strength, demolishing fastballs. And even when he gets fastballs, it’s unclear that he’ll be able to keep up with MLB velocity, as the average fastball he’s seen thus far this season is around 94 MPH. But the bar for him to clear isn’t that high. If he were to muster just league-average offense against lefties, he would be a significant addition to this lineup. And there’s plenty of room for him. Tristan Gray and Alex Jackson are currently on the big-league roster (or at least one of them is, pending Kaelen Culpepper's corresponding move), but they are rarely playing. Gray has started just three of nine games since replacing an injured Byron Buxton a week and a half ago. Jackson has started three games since Ryan Jeffers returned from injury on July 10th, two of which were at first base against a lefty (in very limited action versus lefties, Jackson has a .382 OPS across 24 plate appearances). It’s rare that a team could reasonably have room for a first baseman who would strictly fill the short side of a platoon, but the Twins are in that position now. Even after Culpepper's promotion, or if Walker Jenkins were to be called up, there could still be room for someone like Sabato to try to keep the line moving against lefties, if they valued a platoon hitter and didn’t bite on one of several potential right-handed bats currently designated for assignment. Or perhaps he could be their September position player call-up when the roster expands by one hitter and one pitcher. Sabato doesn’t have a high ceiling in the majors, and projection systems like ZiPS don’t forecast him being even an average hitter at a position you need to hit. But right now, what’s the risk in giving him a shot a few times a week against left-handed pitchers? And it would be fun—if you dig big dudes who ding dongs, anyway.
  6. Dozens of players are traded every deadline. Fans love some and hate others. Fans also beg for their favorite players to come back. Admit it, you want them to trade for Luis Arraez, Sonny Gray, Louis Varland, and, if you're a real sicko, Tyler Wells. But for Twins fans, what would be the funniest possible Welcome Home trade candidates? Here's my top five. 5. Randy Dobnak, SP (KC) Randy Dobnak went from beloved folk hero to unwitting villain faster than any player I have ever seen because he had the temerity to commit two unforgivable sins. First, he was the last man standing in 2019 as the club's third-best starter after injury, ineffectiveness, and a lack of reinforcements sapped the Twins of all their starting depth. Second, he had the gall to sign a very modest contract that paid him nine million dollars over five years before getting injured. Twins fans have never forgiven him for that. He's a great story, perhaps bordering on a sideshow, a husky sinkerballer with a horseshoe mustache and a winning smile who was signed out of independent baseball and drove Uber in the offseason. After years marred by injury and ineffectiveness, Dobnak left the Twins organization not as an MLB rotation piece but as perhaps the most beloved St. Paul Saint of the Triple-A era. Why would the Twins trade for Dobnak? They've shown a penchant for using bulk relievers this season, and they might need a little more rotation depth even after acquiring Dean Kremer. And Dobnak has thrown 26 innings to the tune of a 1.04 ERA for the Kansas City Royals, including seven shutout innings against the Twins last week. 4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT (BOS) Isiah Kiner-Falefa had perhaps the shortest tenure as a Minnesota Twin in the modern era, as it didn't even last 24 hours. He was acquired in the 2022 offseason for Mitch Garver, alongside Ronny Henriquez. The following day, he was packaged with Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt and sent to the Yankees for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela. The Twins have trotted out several utility infielders to play shortstop for them this season, so what's one more? It's not like Kaelen Culpepper is beating down the doors. It's still early, anyway. They still have time to trade for him and then hours later send him somewhere else. 3. Brent Headrick, RP & Luis Gil, SP (NYY) - Specifically in return for Ryan Jeffers There's a lot going on with this one, but hear me out. Brent Headrick was a DFA casualty in 2025 (when the Twins bullpen was good), snatched away by the Yankees in February of 2025. He's put up a 1.84 ERA across 78 innings out of New York's bullpen and would have been a very good addition for the Twins—if they didn't already have four lefties in their bullpen after trading for A.J. Minter. Luis Gil was traded to the Yankees ahead of the 2018 season for Jake Cave. Gil was 19 at the time (a year older than Jhomnardo Reyes, who was just traded for Kremer, much to the chagrin of many fans), but he was excellent for the Yankees between 2024 and 2025, starting 40 games with a 3.45 ERA and winning Rookie of the Year in 2024. He's a great example of why self-scouting is so important, though he's struggled this season and is currently on the injured list. Were the Twins to trade Jeffers for this package, not too dissimilar to the Anthony Volpe-Camilo Doval (two Yankees who have been spiraling lately) package that circulated the baseball world last week, basically everyone would be mad. The anti-Jeffers-trade crew would be upset he was traded. The pro-Jeffers-trade crew would be upset at the return. The people who have never forgiven the Twins for trading away Gil would say it's too little too late. 2. Tyler Mahle, SP (SF) Tyler Mahle was the headliner for the Twins' most significant trade deadline during the Derek Falvey era. The Twins sent Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to Cincinnati for his services at the 2022 deadline for the last year and a half of Mahle's contract. They received nine starts for this investment, as Mahle was lost for the season twice in two years. He was solid when healthy (and to hear him tell it, he always was), but he just wasn't healthy. And Steer had a great start in Cincinnati, further frustrating Twins fans. Mahle continued to struggle with injury since leaving the Twins, but he had a 2.82 ERA in 16 starts with Texas last season, and since returning from a hamstring injury this season, he's got a 3.06 ERA in six starts. The Twins already made a trade for a backend starter in Kremer, but if they decided to shift some more assets around or bolster their rotation a bit more, Mahle could be a solution. As long as they don't Google "Tyler Mahle hamstring injury," anyway. "Oh but Gregg, you buffoon, the Braves just made a trade for Mahle last night!" I hear you say. Well, starting pitchers can be traded twice during a single deadline. Maybe the Braves will get cold feet. Ever heard of Jaime García?? 1. Emilio Pagán , RP (CIN) Emilio Pagán's 2022 is up there with the worst seasons for a reliever in Twins history. Not necessarily because he was the worst reliever, but because he had a penchant for giving up bombs at the most inopportune times: in the bottom of the ninth, against Cleveland, and in a pennant race. His meltdowns did put the Twins in position to draft Walker Jenkins, and he was actually pretty good in middle relief for the division-winning 2023 Twins, but Minnesotans never forget a slight. Pagán signed a two-year deal with Cincinnati ahead of the 2024 season and was a pretty effective closer for them in 2025, netting him another contract worth $10 million in 2026 with a player option for another $10 million in 2027. He's struggled this season and missed some time due to injury, but he had a 1.93 ERA in July and pitched himself back into the closer role just in time for the Reds to shop him. If you removed the Twins history component, he'd probably be on some lists for good fits with the Twins, as a low-end overpaid closer is a nice slot for the Twins who want to improve the pen without giving up much in the way of prospects. And if you haven't heard, Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic threw out Pagán's name as an option for the Twins. Honorable Mentions: Spencer Steer. Steven Okert, Michael Tonkin (as a signing, only to be waived August 10th), Dallas Keuchel, Trevor Richards, Daniel Susac View full article
  7. Dozens of players are traded every deadline. Fans love some and hate others. Fans also beg for their favorite players to come back. Admit it, you want them to trade for Luis Arraez, Sonny Gray, Louis Varland, and, if you're a real sicko, Tyler Wells. But for Twins fans, what would be the funniest possible Welcome Home trade candidates? Here's my top five. 5. Randy Dobnak, SP (KC) Randy Dobnak went from beloved folk hero to unwitting villain faster than any player I have ever seen because he had the temerity to commit two unforgivable sins. First, he was the last man standing in 2019 as the club's third-best starter after injury, ineffectiveness, and a lack of reinforcements sapped the Twins of all their starting depth. Second, he had the gall to sign a very modest contract that paid him nine million dollars over five years before getting injured. Twins fans have never forgiven him for that. He's a great story, perhaps bordering on a sideshow, a husky sinkerballer with a horseshoe mustache and a winning smile who was signed out of independent baseball and drove Uber in the offseason. After years marred by injury and ineffectiveness, Dobnak left the Twins organization not as an MLB rotation piece but as perhaps the most beloved St. Paul Saint of the Triple-A era. Why would the Twins trade for Dobnak? They've shown a penchant for using bulk relievers this season, and they might need a little more rotation depth even after acquiring Dean Kremer. And Dobnak has thrown 26 innings to the tune of a 1.04 ERA for the Kansas City Royals, including seven shutout innings against the Twins last week. 4. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, UT (BOS) Isiah Kiner-Falefa had perhaps the shortest tenure as a Minnesota Twin in the modern era, as it didn't even last 24 hours. He was acquired in the 2022 offseason for Mitch Garver, alongside Ronny Henriquez. The following day, he was packaged with Josh Donaldson and Ben Rortvedt and sent to the Yankees for Gary Sánchez and Gio Urshela. The Twins have trotted out several utility infielders to play shortstop for them this season, so what's one more? It's not like Kaelen Culpepper is beating down the doors. It's still early, anyway. They still have time to trade for him and then hours later send him somewhere else. 3. Brent Headrick, RP & Luis Gil, SP (NYY) - Specifically in return for Ryan Jeffers There's a lot going on with this one, but hear me out. Brent Headrick was a DFA casualty in 2025 (when the Twins bullpen was good), snatched away by the Yankees in February of 2025. He's put up a 1.84 ERA across 78 innings out of New York's bullpen and would have been a very good addition for the Twins—if they didn't already have four lefties in their bullpen after trading for A.J. Minter. Luis Gil was traded to the Yankees ahead of the 2018 season for Jake Cave. Gil was 19 at the time (a year older than Jhomnardo Reyes, who was just traded for Kremer, much to the chagrin of many fans), but he was excellent for the Yankees between 2024 and 2025, starting 40 games with a 3.45 ERA and winning Rookie of the Year in 2024. He's a great example of why self-scouting is so important, though he's struggled this season and is currently on the injured list. Were the Twins to trade Jeffers for this package, not too dissimilar to the Anthony Volpe-Camilo Doval (two Yankees who have been spiraling lately) package that circulated the baseball world last week, basically everyone would be mad. The anti-Jeffers-trade crew would be upset he was traded. The pro-Jeffers-trade crew would be upset at the return. The people who have never forgiven the Twins for trading away Gil would say it's too little too late. 2. Tyler Mahle, SP (SF) Tyler Mahle was the headliner for the Twins' most significant trade deadline during the Derek Falvey era. The Twins sent Spencer Steer, Christian Encarnacion-Strand, and Steve Hajjar to Cincinnati for his services at the 2022 deadline for the last year and a half of Mahle's contract. They received nine starts for this investment, as Mahle was lost for the season twice in two years. He was solid when healthy (and to hear him tell it, he always was), but he just wasn't healthy. And Steer had a great start in Cincinnati, further frustrating Twins fans. Mahle continued to struggle with injury since leaving the Twins, but he had a 2.82 ERA in 16 starts with Texas last season, and since returning from a hamstring injury this season, he's got a 3.06 ERA in six starts. The Twins already made a trade for a backend starter in Kremer, but if they decided to shift some more assets around or bolster their rotation a bit more, Mahle could be a solution. As long as they don't Google "Tyler Mahle hamstring injury," anyway. "Oh but Gregg, you buffoon, the Braves just made a trade for Mahle last night!" I hear you say. Well, starting pitchers can be traded twice during a single deadline. Maybe the Braves will get cold feet. Ever heard of Jaime García?? 1. Emilio Pagán , RP (CIN) Emilio Pagán's 2022 is up there with the worst seasons for a reliever in Twins history. Not necessarily because he was the worst reliever, but because he had a penchant for giving up bombs at the most inopportune times: in the bottom of the ninth, against Cleveland, and in a pennant race. His meltdowns did put the Twins in position to draft Walker Jenkins, and he was actually pretty good in middle relief for the division-winning 2023 Twins, but Minnesotans never forget a slight. Pagán signed a two-year deal with Cincinnati ahead of the 2024 season and was a pretty effective closer for them in 2025, netting him another contract worth $10 million in 2026 with a player option for another $10 million in 2027. He's struggled this season and missed some time due to injury, but he had a 1.93 ERA in July and pitched himself back into the closer role just in time for the Reds to shop him. If you removed the Twins history component, he'd probably be on some lists for good fits with the Twins, as a low-end overpaid closer is a nice slot for the Twins who want to improve the pen without giving up much in the way of prospects. And if you haven't heard, Dan Hayes and Ken Rosenthal at The Athletic threw out Pagán's name as an option for the Twins. Honorable Mentions: Spencer Steer. Steven Okert, Michael Tonkin (as a signing, only to be waived August 10th), Dallas Keuchel, Trevor Richards, Daniel Susac
  8. This is the continuation of my takeaways from a 90-minute conversation between Derek Falvey and the MLB Fan Council, of which I am a member. For part one, in which I walked through the timeline of an MLB trade deadline, check out my piece from Thursday. Today, I want to share a wide array of topics that were discussed during our call that don’t really fall into a cohesive narrative. More of a list of fun facts, answers to questions, and potpourri. Or, in Falvey’s case, maybe POBOABOpourri. What does shopping a player look like? No, GMs rarely call each other and ask “Would you like one lightly-used Matt Wallner?” The conversations are much more coy. As I mentioned in the last article, there are a dozen or so conversations between teams before a trade is finalized. Instead, they start by asking “Are you looking for anything” and attempt to steer the other team into the direction of a player they’re trying to shop. Why? Because it helps define what the other team likes and how they evaluate. It’s data that they can use in the future. And hey, they might even be interested in a player you have even less interest in holding on to, or maybe they’ll start courting you for a player you hadn’t previously considered moving, but would for the right price. You wouldn’t know that if you just led with the guy you’re wanting to get rid of. These coy conversations also set up three-way trades, because there might be a player type you can’t provide, but if a third team was involved, both parties could leave satisfied. Falvey also stressed that when talks started to heat up in this way, he’d try to let the player or their agent know that they were being discussed, even in somewhat preliminary discussions. Is it different making trades as a small market club? Falvey worked for bottom-half payroll teams in both Cleveland and Minnesota. For the most part, small-market teams rely more heavily on their prospect pool, because it’s cheap, controllable talent. It’s harder to pry prospects away from those clubs than it is for a big-market club that is more readily able to fill in holes in their roster in free agency. This isn’t always true, but on average, that’s a big difference between small- and large-market clubs. Do you start your offer pie-in-the-sky and hope the other team bites? Sure, if your player is in high demand. But if he’s not in high demand, or no one wants to swim in those waters, you best bring it down. Setting the bar too high can close off some discussions, and other teams might look at your lofty asking price and send a package you might have taken to some other team for a lower return. I mentioned this in the first piece, but Falvey noted a few times that one of the keys to making trades is recognizing the cadence of other teams’ approaches. Some other GMs are known to set the bar very high and be willing to drop it, but others set the bar at a more reasonable level and do not budge. One fun tidbit that Falvey shared regarded the discrepancy between second-place offers. In some trades, the second best offer was very comparable to the winning offer, and a GM is essentially picking which flavor of ice cream he likes best. Other times, the gap between the winning offer and the runner-up is enormous. He chuckled, recalling some trades (none identified) that fans reacted to with a “that’s it?” manner, to which he’d say “You should have seen the other offers.” How do GMs communicate with each other? Mostly via text. Rarely does anyone call each other anymore, though some GMs only talk by phone. On the other side of the spectrum, GIFs and emojis have been known to find their way into trade discussions. Falvey specifically recalls being hit with a simple “☹” in response to a trade he proposed, and once when he forgot to reply to a fellow GM, he received a GIF of a prairie dog sticking its head out of a hole. Most clubs have similar player evaluation systems. How do you navigate trades when both teams are working from the same data? Falvey confirmed that most clubs are working with a lot of the same data. Furthermore, every club has access to previous trade data. There’s a figurative book in every front office that shows the value of previous trades, so anyone can figure out the answer to “What is a #2 starter with 2.5 years of control worth?” based on trades from past years. If that’s worth an A prospect and two B prospects, that’s the price. But clubs do differ in their evaluation of players nonetheless. From a prospect perspective, consider top 100 lists from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, ESPN, and The Athletic. There’s a lot of similarities between those lists, but there’s certainly disagreement on some names. The further down the minor league system, or the further down the list you go, the more disagreement there is. In the one A and two Bs example, you might be able to find a team that sees two of your C-level prospects as B-level. But with MLB players, the evaluation is more straightforward and concerned with years of control. Furthermore, teams are more likely to spend from areas of strength, and teams value players who address their weaknesses, which is effectively a difference in player valuation between organizations. Falvey also noted the role of player development in this process. Part of choosing the right prospect is knowing what your player development system can do. If there are specific weaknesses in a player’s game that your organization is competent in improving, that player is more valuable to you. Likewise, if your player development system struggles to develop certain skills, a player who needs that emphasis is less valuable. Scouts and analysts are both in the war room. How much disagreement is there between them? The ol’ Moneyball movie conundrum. Falvey stressed that this rivalry just isn’t what it’s made out to be. He’d ensure that scouts and analysts, on both the pro and amateur side, were in contact with each other frequently, not just during decision-making time. It’s important for everyone in the room, the war room here specifically, to understand the perspectives of people from different areas, even when they disagree. And they should disagree, he noted. Early in his career, he was consensus-seeking. But as he matured, he realized that there would never be consensus in any room where a real decision was being made. Silence probably meant someone was scared of speaking up. How is a Player to be Named Later (PTBNL) determined? Generally, PTBNLs are added to trades because the team needs to spend a little more time scouting the players in question. A list is submitted of players who can potentially be named later, and the team has a few weeks or months to continue scouting from that list before determining which player they would like to receive. PTBNLs can range in importance from the main piece of the return to a throw-in. As noted in the previous piece, many trades are agreed to close to the deadline, and a PTBNL can allow a team that didn’t have the time to fully scout the potential returns the weeks they need before completing a trade. These players can be chosen after the deadline. How do trades with players who have no-trade clauses (NTC) work? Players can work provisions into their contracts preventing them from being traded without their consent. Sometimes this is to any team; other times players will submit a limited list. But these guys still get traded. GMs keep in contact with agents to probe interest, because (as Twins fans know) teams can still call about guys with NTCs. Players are free to change their minds, or they might have strategically chosen teams that they know they might get traded to so they have a little leverage in an eventual move. Agents are pretty forthcoming with the players’ stances. Sometimes the conversation is between the player and GM as well. Falvey stressed that whenever something like this happened, he’d try to reach out to the player or their agent early, so as not to spring it on them at the end of negotiations, only for them to block the move. Leaks. Let’s talk about leaks Why do they happen? Members of front offices like to curry favor with reporters and will treat information like a commodity. Or they’ll use it to trade information with other clubs, and once another club has it, who knows where it goes. Or maybe they just want to feel important. Falvey noted that when a leak happened in his front offices, which was pretty uncommon, the circle who got to know things would shrink. Not only is it annoying, but it can also have negative consequences. Falvey mentioned that sometimes players would learn they were being traded before he had a chance to inform them. Or, perhaps worse, a trade would be reported as close to final when it never actually happened. Sometimes news would leak that a player was close to being traded to Team X, and he’d get messages from the GM of Team Y - who the player was actually going to - asking what happened to the deal they agreed to. Messes all around. Did you ever write a lineup card? Haha, no. If asked for an opinion, Falvey would put his hands up and shake his head. The closest Falvey ever got to writing a lineup card was in daily discussions between the manager and the medical staff, discussing which relievers were showing signs of injury or fatigue. Rarely, if ever, did a manager insist on using a player that the medical staff encouraged him to keep off his feet for the day if at all possible. Why would anyone trade with the Tampa Bay Rays? Someone asked a version of the question, “Why would you trade with a good organization? Don’t they know something you don’t?” which prompted someone to quote the Sam Miller tweet “LOVE this trade for the Rays. Who'd they give up? And who'd they get?” Falvey had a chuckle, and I reminded everyone of the Twins’ trades with the Rays for Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Yoendrys Gómez, and Jake Odorizzi. But it’s a good question. Falvey indicated that you can’t be scared of trading with anyone, though if a respected organization starts asking about a player far down your system’s internal list, your ears might prick up. In the same way, it sometimes happens that several teams will ask for a specific player in your organization in a way that might also change your evaluation of that player, or at least reconsider his case. Once again, Falvey brought up the cadence point and referred to the playbook that front offices build around rival teams. If you know how they approach discussions or how they conduct business around the trade deadline, you can anticipate their moves and act in a way that sets you up for success at the negotiation tables. View full article
  9. This is the continuation of my takeaways from a 90-minute conversation between Derek Falvey and the MLB Fan Council, of which I am a member. For part one, in which I walked through the timeline of an MLB trade deadline, check out my piece from Thursday. Today, I want to share a wide array of topics that were discussed during our call that don’t really fall into a cohesive narrative. More of a list of fun facts, answers to questions, and potpourri. Or, in Falvey’s case, maybe POBOABOpourri. What does shopping a player look like? No, GMs rarely call each other and ask “Would you like one lightly-used Matt Wallner?” The conversations are much more coy. As I mentioned in the last article, there are a dozen or so conversations between teams before a trade is finalized. Instead, they start by asking “Are you looking for anything” and attempt to steer the other team into the direction of a player they’re trying to shop. Why? Because it helps define what the other team likes and how they evaluate. It’s data that they can use in the future. And hey, they might even be interested in a player you have even less interest in holding on to, or maybe they’ll start courting you for a player you hadn’t previously considered moving, but would for the right price. You wouldn’t know that if you just led with the guy you’re wanting to get rid of. These coy conversations also set up three-way trades, because there might be a player type you can’t provide, but if a third team was involved, both parties could leave satisfied. Falvey also stressed that when talks started to heat up in this way, he’d try to let the player or their agent know that they were being discussed, even in somewhat preliminary discussions. Is it different making trades as a small market club? Falvey worked for bottom-half payroll teams in both Cleveland and Minnesota. For the most part, small-market teams rely more heavily on their prospect pool, because it’s cheap, controllable talent. It’s harder to pry prospects away from those clubs than it is for a big-market club that is more readily able to fill in holes in their roster in free agency. This isn’t always true, but on average, that’s a big difference between small- and large-market clubs. Do you start your offer pie-in-the-sky and hope the other team bites? Sure, if your player is in high demand. But if he’s not in high demand, or no one wants to swim in those waters, you best bring it down. Setting the bar too high can close off some discussions, and other teams might look at your lofty asking price and send a package you might have taken to some other team for a lower return. I mentioned this in the first piece, but Falvey noted a few times that one of the keys to making trades is recognizing the cadence of other teams’ approaches. Some other GMs are known to set the bar very high and be willing to drop it, but others set the bar at a more reasonable level and do not budge. One fun tidbit that Falvey shared regarded the discrepancy between second-place offers. In some trades, the second best offer was very comparable to the winning offer, and a GM is essentially picking which flavor of ice cream he likes best. Other times, the gap between the winning offer and the runner-up is enormous. He chuckled, recalling some trades (none identified) that fans reacted to with a “that’s it?” manner, to which he’d say “You should have seen the other offers.” How do GMs communicate with each other? Mostly via text. Rarely does anyone call each other anymore, though some GMs only talk by phone. On the other side of the spectrum, GIFs and emojis have been known to find their way into trade discussions. Falvey specifically recalls being hit with a simple “☹” in response to a trade he proposed, and once when he forgot to reply to a fellow GM, he received a GIF of a prairie dog sticking its head out of a hole. Most clubs have similar player evaluation systems. How do you navigate trades when both teams are working from the same data? Falvey confirmed that most clubs are working with a lot of the same data. Furthermore, every club has access to previous trade data. There’s a figurative book in every front office that shows the value of previous trades, so anyone can figure out the answer to “What is a #2 starter with 2.5 years of control worth?” based on trades from past years. If that’s worth an A prospect and two B prospects, that’s the price. But clubs do differ in their evaluation of players nonetheless. From a prospect perspective, consider top 100 lists from MLB Pipeline, Baseball America, ESPN, and The Athletic. There’s a lot of similarities between those lists, but there’s certainly disagreement on some names. The further down the minor league system, or the further down the list you go, the more disagreement there is. In the one A and two Bs example, you might be able to find a team that sees two of your C-level prospects as B-level. But with MLB players, the evaluation is more straightforward and concerned with years of control. Furthermore, teams are more likely to spend from areas of strength, and teams value players who address their weaknesses, which is effectively a difference in player valuation between organizations. Falvey also noted the role of player development in this process. Part of choosing the right prospect is knowing what your player development system can do. If there are specific weaknesses in a player’s game that your organization is competent in improving, that player is more valuable to you. Likewise, if your player development system struggles to develop certain skills, a player who needs that emphasis is less valuable. Scouts and analysts are both in the war room. How much disagreement is there between them? The ol’ Moneyball movie conundrum. Falvey stressed that this rivalry just isn’t what it’s made out to be. He’d ensure that scouts and analysts, on both the pro and amateur side, were in contact with each other frequently, not just during decision-making time. It’s important for everyone in the room, the war room here specifically, to understand the perspectives of people from different areas, even when they disagree. And they should disagree, he noted. Early in his career, he was consensus-seeking. But as he matured, he realized that there would never be consensus in any room where a real decision was being made. Silence probably meant someone was scared of speaking up. How is a Player to be Named Later (PTBNL) determined? Generally, PTBNLs are added to trades because the team needs to spend a little more time scouting the players in question. A list is submitted of players who can potentially be named later, and the team has a few weeks or months to continue scouting from that list before determining which player they would like to receive. PTBNLs can range in importance from the main piece of the return to a throw-in. As noted in the previous piece, many trades are agreed to close to the deadline, and a PTBNL can allow a team that didn’t have the time to fully scout the potential returns the weeks they need before completing a trade. These players can be chosen after the deadline. How do trades with players who have no-trade clauses (NTC) work? Players can work provisions into their contracts preventing them from being traded without their consent. Sometimes this is to any team; other times players will submit a limited list. But these guys still get traded. GMs keep in contact with agents to probe interest, because (as Twins fans know) teams can still call about guys with NTCs. Players are free to change their minds, or they might have strategically chosen teams that they know they might get traded to so they have a little leverage in an eventual move. Agents are pretty forthcoming with the players’ stances. Sometimes the conversation is between the player and GM as well. Falvey stressed that whenever something like this happened, he’d try to reach out to the player or their agent early, so as not to spring it on them at the end of negotiations, only for them to block the move. Leaks. Let’s talk about leaks Why do they happen? Members of front offices like to curry favor with reporters and will treat information like a commodity. Or they’ll use it to trade information with other clubs, and once another club has it, who knows where it goes. Or maybe they just want to feel important. Falvey noted that when a leak happened in his front offices, which was pretty uncommon, the circle who got to know things would shrink. Not only is it annoying, but it can also have negative consequences. Falvey mentioned that sometimes players would learn they were being traded before he had a chance to inform them. Or, perhaps worse, a trade would be reported as close to final when it never actually happened. Sometimes news would leak that a player was close to being traded to Team X, and he’d get messages from the GM of Team Y - who the player was actually going to - asking what happened to the deal they agreed to. Messes all around. Did you ever write a lineup card? Haha, no. If asked for an opinion, Falvey would put his hands up and shake his head. The closest Falvey ever got to writing a lineup card was in daily discussions between the manager and the medical staff, discussing which relievers were showing signs of injury or fatigue. Rarely, if ever, did a manager insist on using a player that the medical staff encouraged him to keep off his feet for the day if at all possible. Why would anyone trade with the Tampa Bay Rays? Someone asked a version of the question, “Why would you trade with a good organization? Don’t they know something you don’t?” which prompted someone to quote the Sam Miller tweet “LOVE this trade for the Rays. Who'd they give up? And who'd they get?” Falvey had a chuckle, and I reminded everyone of the Twins’ trades with the Rays for Joe Ryan, Taj Bradley, Yoendrys Gómez, and Jake Odorizzi. But it’s a good question. Falvey indicated that you can’t be scared of trading with anyone, though if a respected organization starts asking about a player far down your system’s internal list, your ears might prick up. In the same way, it sometimes happens that several teams will ask for a specific player in your organization in a way that might also change your evaluation of that player, or at least reconsider his case. Once again, Falvey brought up the cadence point and referred to the playbook that front offices build around rival teams. If you know how they approach discussions or how they conduct business around the trade deadline, you can anticipate their moves and act in a way that sets you up for success at the negotiation tables.
  10. Image courtesy of Vincent Carchietta-Imagn Images While other teams drag their feet toward the August 3 MLB trade deadline, the Twins got the festivities started early and pounced on a trade for Mets reliever A.J. Minter Thursday night. Minter is on an expiring deal, and is due approximately $3.5 million for the rest of the season. Everyone and their mothers are aware that the Twins need relief pitching if they want to make a push for the postseason, even if their ragtag bullpen has been holding it together in the month of July. In fact, Minter joins a unit that's just hitting its stride. Their collective FIP was 4.19 in relief in March and April; 4.42 in May; and 5.61 in June, but it's 3.65 in July, and their bullpen ERA for the month is even lower. Minter clearly fits into the Twins’ late-inning mix alongside Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, two right-handed pitchers who have been trusted with the eighth and ninth innings in most recent games. The Twins have not had a trusted lefty reliever to turn to since losing Anthony Banda for the season to a lat strain; this addresses the easiest and most urgent need in their pen. Other left-handed short relievers who have seen action for the Twins include Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk, who have had some bright spots this season but have been marred by inconsistency. Rogers has an ERA of 5.03, and Funderburk has skated by with a 3.52 ERA despite walking 15% of the batters he’s faced. Rogers has struggled to find his command at times, as well. Minter, on the other hand, has been excellent at limiting walks this year, only walking two batters in 23 innings. Limiting walks to this degree is probably unsustainable, but in his career, he’s issued walks at about half the frequency as Funderburk has this season. Multiple injury issues have limited Minter to 67 2/3 innings since the beginning of 2024. However, he’s got a combined 2.37 ERA (about 80% better than the average pitcher) during that span. It's 2.35 this year and 3.18 for his career. Given the state of the Twins bullpen, he easily slots in as the top lefty and somewhere in the top three pitchers overall. Presumably, Derek Shelton will now feel empowered to play matchups with Morris, Gómez and Minter at the back ends of games, pending further additions to the group. The Twins have had the 8th worst ERA in baseball from their lefty relievers at 4.21, and that figure includes Kendry Rojas’s 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings as a long reliever. They desperately needed to improve their lefty relief corps, particularly in light of Banda being lost. Minter's raw stuff has been eroded by injury and age (he's 32), and he doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. In his prime, he averaged about 97 MPH on his four-seamer, but it’s been slipping since 2022. In 2026, it’s averaging about 93 MPH, and his four-seamer has been hit hard, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Minter throws almost exclusively fastballs, throwing a cutter over half the time and his four-seamer about a third of the time. Combine those two with a seldom-thrown sinker, and fastballs make up about 90% of his arsenal. At this stage in his career, his cutter is his dominant pitch to both lefties and righties, though slightly more frequently against lefties. There’s about five miles per hour of separation from his four-seamer, and it can play a bit more like a slider. He’s also got a changeup that he’ll use against righties as a chase pitch, throwing it about 15% of the time to them. In contrast with the tall, lanky, east-west movers that are Rogers and Funderburk, Minter is a sturdy but shortish athlete who throws from a three-quarters slot and can work north and south. His four-seamer has lost a bit of carry this season; the Twins might work with him to restore it. Still, he can stretch the zone vertically better than either of his new lefty colleagues—assuming both of them remain part of the cohort. Minter's roster spot will have to come at someone's expense; it might be Funderburk or Rogers. From a thousand-foot view, Minter is something of an ideal pitcher for the Twins to invest in for the stretch run. He's not one of the 10 top relievers on the market this deadline, which is reflected in the modest cost to acquire him early, but he has both playoff and late-inning experience aplenty, and he fills the gap left by Banda with more left-handed talent than the Twins have had from their bullpen this season. He slots in just fine throwing the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning, depending on the situation. And he allows the Twins to focus on adding more in the coming days, without worrying about checking the lefty reliever box off of their list. It ain’t the sexiest, and there are injury and age questions, but it’s a quality addition for a team trying to sneak into the playoffs without selling the farm. View full article
  11. While other teams drag their feet toward the August 3 MLB trade deadline, the Twins got the festivities started early and pounced on a trade for Mets reliever A.J. Minter Thursday night. Minter is on an expiring deal, and is due approximately $3.5 million for the rest of the season. Everyone and their mothers are aware that the Twins need relief pitching if they want to make a push for the postseason, even if their ragtag bullpen has been holding it together in the month of July. In fact, Minter joins a unit that's just hitting its stride. Their collective FIP was 4.19 in relief in March and April; 4.42 in May; and 5.61 in June, but it's 3.65 in July, and their bullpen ERA for the month is even lower. Minter clearly fits into the Twins’ late-inning mix alongside Andrew Morris and Yoendrys Gómez, two right-handed pitchers who have been trusted with the eighth and ninth innings in most recent games. The Twins have not had a trusted lefty reliever to turn to since losing Anthony Banda for the season to a lat strain; this addresses the easiest and most urgent need in their pen. Other left-handed short relievers who have seen action for the Twins include Taylor Rogers and Kody Funderburk, who have had some bright spots this season but have been marred by inconsistency. Rogers has an ERA of 5.03, and Funderburk has skated by with a 3.52 ERA despite walking 15% of the batters he’s faced. Rogers has struggled to find his command at times, as well. Minter, on the other hand, has been excellent at limiting walks this year, only walking two batters in 23 innings. Limiting walks to this degree is probably unsustainable, but in his career, he’s issued walks at about half the frequency as Funderburk has this season. Multiple injury issues have limited Minter to 67 2/3 innings since the beginning of 2024. However, he’s got a combined 2.37 ERA (about 80% better than the average pitcher) during that span. It's 2.35 this year and 3.18 for his career. Given the state of the Twins bullpen, he easily slots in as the top lefty and somewhere in the top three pitchers overall. Presumably, Derek Shelton will now feel empowered to play matchups with Morris, Gómez and Minter at the back ends of games, pending further additions to the group. The Twins have had the 8th worst ERA in baseball from their lefty relievers at 4.21, and that figure includes Kendry Rojas’s 2.76 ERA in 16 1/3 innings as a long reliever. They desperately needed to improve their lefty relief corps, particularly in light of Banda being lost. Minter's raw stuff has been eroded by injury and age (he's 32), and he doesn’t throw as hard as he used to. In his prime, he averaged about 97 MPH on his four-seamer, but it’s been slipping since 2022. In 2026, it’s averaging about 93 MPH, and his four-seamer has been hit hard, so that’s something to keep an eye on. Minter throws almost exclusively fastballs, throwing a cutter over half the time and his four-seamer about a third of the time. Combine those two with a seldom-thrown sinker, and fastballs make up about 90% of his arsenal. At this stage in his career, his cutter is his dominant pitch to both lefties and righties, though slightly more frequently against lefties. There’s about five miles per hour of separation from his four-seamer, and it can play a bit more like a slider. He’s also got a changeup that he’ll use against righties as a chase pitch, throwing it about 15% of the time to them. In contrast with the tall, lanky, east-west movers that are Rogers and Funderburk, Minter is a sturdy but shortish athlete who throws from a three-quarters slot and can work north and south. His four-seamer has lost a bit of carry this season; the Twins might work with him to restore it. Still, he can stretch the zone vertically better than either of his new lefty colleagues—assuming both of them remain part of the cohort. Minter's roster spot will have to come at someone's expense; it might be Funderburk or Rogers. From a thousand-foot view, Minter is something of an ideal pitcher for the Twins to invest in for the stretch run. He's not one of the 10 top relievers on the market this deadline, which is reflected in the modest cost to acquire him early, but he has both playoff and late-inning experience aplenty, and he fills the gap left by Banda with more left-handed talent than the Twins have had from their bullpen this season. He slots in just fine throwing the seventh, eighth, or ninth inning, depending on the situation. And he allows the Twins to focus on adding more in the coming days, without worrying about checking the lefty reliever box off of their list. It ain’t the sexiest, and there are injury and age questions, but it’s a quality addition for a team trying to sneak into the playoffs without selling the farm.
  12. The whole "smartest guy in the room" thing never landed for me. Not because I'm some Derek Falvey acolyte, but because it never made sense as a criticism. You can say he's good or bad at his job, or he makes good or bad decisions, but what does "He thinks he's the smartest guy in the room" even mean? Was he supposed to make a trade or signing, then say. "I don't know if this was a good move; I'm not very bright," to the media? It was his job to do what he thought was the smart thing to do!
  13. Listen, this is is just what Falvey says *most* front offices do. I’ve seen enough deadline deals to be convinced that at least one trade a year is completed between two inebriated GMs, or maybe even a mascot and an organist.
  14. One of the many benefits to doing it this way is that different members of the front office have connections with different teams. The lead is always going to be kept in the loop, but a lot of trades are at least started by an Assistant GM saying “Hey I have the framework of a trade worked out with Team X’s top assistant. Do you like any of these options?” The leads for both teams will have final say, but you can go through 5 times the ideas with 5 guys working the phones instead of 1
  15. I think that you can say a lot of things about Derek Falvey as a GM, but it’s hard to find someone willing to say anything bad about him as a human. When a member of the league office introduced him to us at the start of the discussion, he noted that Falvey was one of his favorite people in all of baseball. The meeting was scheduled for 60 minutes, but Derek just kept taking questions and went 30 minutes over.
×
×
  • Create New...