Cody Schoenmann

To reiterate the points made in my piece, Buxton is seventh if you filter this to AL-only, and he’s only 0.3 points of fWAR away from placing fourth. There’s a really good chance he surpasses Montgomery, McGonigle, Dingler, and even Kurtz if he sustains this performance. Witt Jr. and Alvarez are all but guaranteed to finish with more fWAR than Buxton. But what good is 9.0 fWAR for Witt Jr. if his team finishes 20 games under .500 and is out of playoff contention come August? Also, Buxton has been a meaningfully better hitter than Witt Jr. this season. Alvarez is a DH, and i highly doubt he ends the season with a wRC+ above even 170. Not to mention the Twins are more likely to make the playoffs than any club on this list other than the A’s. I’m a broken record at this point but there’s a clear path for Buxton to win.

Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-Imagn Images Before being demoted to Triple-A St. Paul a month ago, Royce Lewis was the Minnesota Twins’ primary third baseman, starting at the position nearly every game regardless of the opposing starting pitcher’s handedness. After he was quickly recalled on June 6, however, the 27-year-old was informed that he would be playing a much different role in the field, moving to the right side of the infield, primarily playing second and first base while occasionally mixing in at third. Ten games into his return with the parent club, Lewis has almost exclusively played first base, starting seven games there, two at second, and one at third. He also eventually moved over to first base in two of the three games at other positions. At the same time, Luke Keaschall has continued operating as Minnesota’s primary second baseman, starting seven of the past 10 games at the position. On the surface, this development shouldn’t come as a surprise. Keaschall has been Minnesota’s primary second baseman since early August 2025, and no other infielder has received substantial time at the position during that span. However, when Lewis was preparing to transition to second and first base at Triple-A, Keaschall was partaking in extended pregame work at first base: Despite undergoing pregame work at first, Keaschall has yet to appear at the position, signaling that Minnesota prefers him at second base over Lewis. Should they? Let’s take a look. Last season, Keaschall generated -2 Outs Above Average (OAA) at second base over 156 attempts. The then-22-year-old demonstrated poor range and a weak arm, but he wasn’t a trainwreck, leading club decision-makers to believe he could make the necessary adjustments to blossom into a serviceable-to-slightly above-average defensive second baseman in 2026—especially as he got another year of distance from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in August 2024. Unfortunately, that hasn’t been the case. Over 237 attempts at second base this season, Keaschall has netted -4 OAA, continuing to display poor range at the position while sporting one of the worst arms in the sport. Keaschall often struggles to field what should be routine plays to his right: Vndaa09fWGw0TUFRPT1fQlZKUVVWWUJWRkFBRDFFQVZnQUhBZ1FGQUZnRFdsSUFDd2NIQlZBRFZGZFhWbEJY.mp4 And his left: OTdQWFZfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdGWkFRVUdVd3NBQUFBQUFnQUhCVmNIQUFBQUFGY0FWbHhSVVZZQ0FGY0hWZ0FI.mp4 His poor arm also often negates Minnesota’s ability to turn double plays, shown below: NHlLMUJfWGw0TUFRPT1fVndnQVVWRUFVUUVBWGxaWFhnQUhVRkJmQUFNQ1ZsUUFDd2NDQWdBTkFGWUhVUVFD.mp4 This call was overturned, as Luis Rengifo was confirmed safe at first base. Given how routine the play looked, it is fair to assume most second basemen with serviceable arms would have successfully turned the double play. Keaschall, however, has demonstrated that he is unable to convert routine double plays time and time again. As mentioned earlier, Minnesota moved Lewis off third base, moving him to the right side of the infield. Still, he has barely played second base. Although that’s been the trend to this point, Lewis is probably a better defensive baseman than Keaschall, and could be inserted as an instant improvement at the position, fortifying the club’s middle infield defense alongside plus defensive shortstop Ryan Kreidler. Kody Clemens, Tristan Gray, and Kreidler could also mix in at the position, replacing Keaschall in the aggregate, similar to what the club did with Brooks Lee at shortstop earlier this season. Keaschall has consistently demonstrated poor range, shaky fielding, and one of the worst arms in baseball at second base for nearly a full season, confirming he won’t be the Twins' long-term answer at the position. That being the case, Minnesota would be wise to move him off the position and provide him opportunities in the corner outfield and/or first base, while keeping him in the lineup on a game-to-game basis. (Yes, a noodle arm is a problem in the outfield, too, but most players are capable of throwing better out there, where a crow hop and a longer arm action are often available to them. The difference-making throws on the infield require a quick release and easy power generation that are missing for Keaschall; he could still prove adequate as an outfield thrower.) Keaschall’s bat plays. There’s a strong chance he’s part of Minnesota’s short-, medium-, and long-term plans. Unfortunately, he isn’t a major league-caliber second baseman. That being the case, team decision-makers should be proactive and move Keaschall off second base. They can have him split time in the corner outfield and at first base (and potentially at designated hitter), while providing Lewis, Clemens, Gray, and Kreidler with more opportunities at second. View full article

On June 5, New York Yankees outfielder Aaron Judge was placed on the 10-day IL with a right rib stress fracture, sidelining the perennial All-Star for six to eight weeks. Before fracturing his right rib, the 34-year-old was hitting .248/.375/.533 with 17 home runs and a 148 wRC+. Performing 48% better than league average, Judge was performing like one of the best hitters in the league. However, he was performing meaningfully worse than in 2024 and 2025, when he generated a combined 212 wRC+ and 111 home runs over 1,383 plate appearances, winning back-to-back AL MVP awards. Unfortunately, due to his six-to-eight absence and slow start (again, relative to previous seasons from Judge) to his 2026 campaign, the future first-ballot Hall-of-Famer is all but guaranteed not to earn his third consecutive AL MVP Award, opening the door for a new winner. At first glance, Kansas City Royals shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. and Houston Astros designated hitter Yordan Alvarez appear to be the co-favorites to earn the award this season. Headlined by his platinum glove-caliber defense at shortstop, Witt Jr. has generated the most Wins Above Replacement at Fangraphs (fWAR) among position players in baseball, with 4.0. Putting together a Judge-esque season himself (24 home runs over 318 plate appearances; 194 wRC+), Alvarez is close behind Witt Jr., generating 3.7 fWAR. West Sacramento (occasionally Las Vegas) Athletics first baseman Nick Kurtz has generated the third most fWAR in the AL, with 3.4, and a pair of Detroit Tigers in Dillon Dingler (3.2) and Kevin McGonigle (3.0) round out the top-five. Coming in with the sixth-most fWAR, however, is Minnesota Twins centerfielder Byron Buxton. Earning AL player of the week honors for the week of June 8-14, Buxton has been one of the hottest hitters in baseball this month, hitting .348/.388/.804 with six home runs and three doubles over 49 plate appearances. Buxton’s performance this June has been the peak of his best offensive season in the majors, wherein the 32-year-old has hit .276/.335/.606 with 23 home runs (the third most home runs hit in MLB) and a 154 wRC+ over 278 plate appearances. Buxton hasn’t been the same caliber of hitter as Alvarez or Kurtz this season. Kurtz has generated a 173 wRC+ and 18 home runs over 325 plate appearances, and Alvarez, as mentioned earlier, is the only AL batter with more home runs than Buxton this season, while also manufacturing 40 more points of wRC+. What separates Buxton from Kurtz and Alvarez, however, is that he is playing well above-average defense at an up-the-middle position in centerfield, while Kurtz plays first base and Alvarez exclusively hits. If Buxton can continue his elite performance at the plate while being a plus defensive centerfielder, he could surpass Kurtz and Alvarez as AL MVP favorites. As mentioned earlier, Dingler and McGonigle have generated more fWAR than Buxton. Yet, Buxton is outhitting both Tigers' position players, netting 16 more points of wRC+ than Dingler and 23 more than McGonigle. McGonigle is a rookie who has consistently been one of baseball’s best hitters this season. Dingler, on the other hand, has undergone a recent offensive renaissance while catching almost every game, helping him jump up the fWAR leaderboard. Still, however, given that McGonigle is the heavy-favorite to win the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and Dingler should regress at the plate soon, the Tigers' star duo likely aren’t legitimate AL MVP Award contenders. Witt Jr. has meaningfully outperformed Buxton in terms of fWAR. However, a significant portion of his fWAR accumulation has come from his stellar defense at shortstop. Witt Jr. might be the best defensive shortstop ever. Still, just like how hitting alone likely won’t be enough for Alvarez to don AL MVP honors, it is going to be exceptionally difficult for Witt Jr. to win the AL MVP primarily on his elite defense. Through 325 plate appearances, Witt Jr. has hit .284/.357/.450, which is good for a 120 wRC+. The 26-year-old has performed well offensively, but he hasn’t been a world-class hitter, which is a trait that should be necessary for any MVP award winner. The primary reason for Witt Jr.’s lackluster season at the plate (again, relative to Witt Jr.’s career norms) is that he has hit only nine home runs, resulting in a modest .450 slugging percentage (SLG). There is a chance Witt Jr. turns things around offensively and hits closer to the 169 wRC+ over 709 plate appearances performance he put together in 2024. If that occurs, he will likely win AL MVP honors. That said, though, if he doesn’t pick things up offensively and Buxton continues to perform at the rate he has, an argument could be made that Buxton’s elite offense and above-average defense are more valuable than Witt Jr.’s elite defense and above-average offense. The final consideration when discussing potential MVP award winners is team performance. Right now, the Twins have better playoff odds than the Royals and Astros. The Tigers have better playoff odds than Minnesota, according to FanGraphs. The Twins are still three games up on Detroit in the AL Central and Wild Card standings, however. Only two games out from the third AL Wild Card spot, Minnesota is very much in postseason contention and should continue to remain in contention late into the season. If Minnesota does make the postseason, Buxton will have had to play a significant role, meaning he avoided any serious injuries while maintaining his elite production at the plate. Again, a lot has to go right for both Buxton and the club. Still, given that Judge is hurt; Alvarez doesn’t play the field; Witt Jr. has performed much worse than Buxton offensively; Dingler, and McGonigle are likely due for regression while playing on a worse club; and Kurtz plays a position much lower on the defensive spectrum while hitting for less power than Buxton, the long-time Twins could win his first AL MVP award this season, signifying a triumphant display of perseverance for a player who was once one of the most injury-riddled players in the sport. View full article

1 1/2 games out from the third wild card spot.

every front office makes moves like these over a 162-game season. we need to recalibrate how we view microtransactions for relievers.

Image courtesy of © Jeff Curry-Imagn Images Last Friday, Pittsburgh Pirates starting pitcher Jared Jones returned to the PNC Park mound, making his first major league start since undergoing Tommy John surgery in May 2025. The home crowd celebrated Jones’s return, as the 24-year-old pitched 4 1/3 innings against the Minnesota Twins, surrendering five earned runs over 21 batters faced. However, the hard-throwing righty’s return to Pittsburgh’s five-pitcher rotation was partially overshadowed by how Carmen Mlodzinski (who held Pittsburgh’s fifth rotation spot for most of 2026) responded to Pirates decision-makers informing him that he would be transitioned back into the bullpen upon Jones’s return. “(I’m) still communicating with the organization and the people in my corner, whether that’s my family or my agency, about what is next,” Mlodzinski said, when asked about transitioning back to the bullpen during a media scrum last Thursday. Unsurprisingly, Mlodzinski’s quote took off among national baseball media, with many criticizing the 27-year-old’s dejected response to returning to the bullpen. Many of those critiquing Mlodzinski are doing so solely to profit from the salaciousness of a conflict between player and team, but for those viewing the situation more clearly, it's easy to see why Mlodzinski would be upset about the change in roles. Through 55 innings pitched, Mlodzinski has generated a 3.76 ERA, 3.31 FIP, and a 19.3% strikeout rate, while making nine proper starts. According to Wins Above Replacement at FanGraphs (fWAR), the righty has been Pittsburgh's fourth-most valuable starting pitcher, coming in behind Braxton Ashcraft, Paul Skenes, and Mitch Keller. Mlodzinski is firmly above the Pirates’ fifth-most valuable starting pitcher, Bubba Chandler, earning 1.0 fWAR over 44 innings pitched as a starter compared to Chandler’s 0.2 fWAR over 52 innings. Still, Pittsburgh opted to keep Chandler in the rotation over Mlodzinski, seemingly due to Chandler’s far superior raw stuff and higher ceiling as a starter. Pittsburgh placed Mlodzinski on the restricted list on Sunday, citing the pitcher expressing that he wasn’t ready to pitch in the series finale against Minnesota. Big-leaguers are unpaid while on the restricted list. However, the 24-year-old’s stint on the list was short-lived, as he was reinstated Monday night. In effect, they suspended him for two days and docked his pay for the missed time. According to Jason Mackey of MLB.com, Mlodzinski didn’t request a trade, and is expected to pitch out of the bullpen in a bulk role during the club’s Tuesday night contest against the Houston Astros. Still, animosity between Mlodzinski and Pittsburgh lingers, making a trade of the 27-year-old likely before the trade deadline on August 3. If that is the case, Twins top baseball executive Jeremy Zoll should aggressively pursue an early-June trade for Mlodzinski, handing the talented righty a solidified role in Minnesota’s five-pitcher starting rotation. Like Pittsburgh, Minnesota entered the 2026 campaign with a surplus of high-end starting pitching talent, headlined by Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, and budding stars Taj Bradley and Mick Abel. However, injuries have quickly decimated the club’s rotation depth, with Ober, Abel, and talented, young lefty Kendry Rojas on the 15-day IL for the foreseeable future. Losing these three arms, Minnesota is down to a four-pitcher rotation, headlined by Ryan, Bradley, a struggling Connor Prielipp, and an inconsistent Zebby Matthews. Mike Paredes is on the 26-man roster as a long reliever, at least for the moment, but even after the team picked up another Pirate (Justin Lawrence, a short reliever) in a cash deal Monday night, it's not clear who will start Thursday evening against the Royals. Minnesota is still in dire need of starting pitching depth, particularly if the club wants to remain in postseason contention as the dog days of summer near. ""Yeah, I think everything needs to be on the table," Zoll told reporters Monday about the apparent hole in the rotation. "We've worked through all the considerations ... but I think when you go true bullpen games, that can be challenging, but we probably need to see how we get through the next day or two and the state of the bullpen before we finalize any plans." Primarily throwing a four-seamer, splitter, sinker, and curve, Mlodzinski would instantly slot in as a valuable member of Minnesota’s starting rotation, likely filling the third spot behind Ryan and Bradley. Even if Ober, Abel, and/or Rojas return soon, Mlodzinski would be in position to retain a rotation spot, given Prileipp’s, Matthews’s, and Rojas’s inconsistency this season and the team's desire to keep Prielipp and Rojas from taking on too large a workload too quickly. Though it's hardly ideal, the team might well switch to a six-man rotation for some stretches, giving their young starters an extra day between appearances to both optimize recovery and slow their accumulation of innings. Any team that acquires Mlodzinski would want to avoid recreating the awkward series of events that has led to the promising righty’s falling out with Pittsburgh’s decision-makers. Given the injuries Twins starting pitchers have sustained this season, Mlodzinski would be all but guaranteed a rotation spot with Minnesota for the rest of the 2026 season, potentially playing an integral role in the club’s ability to return to the postseason for the first time since 2023. Besides, there's one person we know likes Mlodzinski as a starter, and who gave him that job for the first time at the end of spring training last year: then-Pirates manager Derek Shelton. "I think through the spring, we saw him not only increase in velocity, but saw him maintain the velocity, which was something that really made us feel confident that he can be a starting pitcher,” Shelton said after Mlodzinski returned to the rotation last March, having spent the previous two seasons working in relief. “It wasn't one time through the order; we saw it maintain in the fourth inning, fifth inning in Spring Training." There's familiarity between the manager and this prospective addition—and a history of the kind of trust and faith the pitcher clearly needs to feel from his superiors. There's also a glaring need. Presumably, the Pirates won't give up Mlodzinski for nothing—he remains under team control through 2029 and isn''t even arbitration-eligible until this winter. If the cost of acquiring him has been dramatically reduced by the tension between employers and employee, though, the Twins should swoop in. View full article

Kyler Fedko? The Triple-A Slugger?

Since the beginning of the 2015 MLB regular season, the Minnesota Twins have had 23 different catchers attempt a throw to second base. Of those 23 catchers, Caleb Hamilton had the slowest average pop time, averaging 2.13 seconds over three attempts in 2022. On the flip side, Ben Rortvedt averaged the fastest pop time among Twins catchers during that stretch, averaging 1.92 seconds over eight attempts in 2021. That was until Alex Jackson made his first start behind the plate as a member of the Twins last Friday. In the bottom of the third innings of last Friday night’s contest between the Twins and the Boston Red Sox, Andruw Monasterio attempted to steal second base on Connor Prielipp. Monasterio’s steal attempt was snuffed, however, as Jackson threw him out to end the bottom half of the inning. Upon throwing Monasterio out, Jackson generated the quickest pop time of any Twins catcher in the Statcast era, exchanging the ball from his glove to second base in 1.87 seconds. Vndaa09fWGw0TUFRPT1fQUFkUUJnZFhVUWNBWGxVRVV3QUhWQU5mQUZoV1cxWUFBbEFHVWdVSFZRWUJWQVpY.mp4 Jackson netting this record, if you will, shouldn’t come as a surprise to those who follow the sport. In 2025, Jackson tied for the sixth-fastest pop time of all catchers in baseball while with the Baltimore Orioles. The backstop made minimal appearances behind the plate from 2022 through 2024, due to his offensive shortcomings. However, he also tied for the fifth-fastest pop time (tied with Rortvedt, funny enough) of all major league catchers in 2021. The driving force behind his long-standing top-of-the-league pop time, however, has been his elite arm. Jackson’s throw to second base came in at 82.6 MPH, which is the 13th-fastest throw of all catchers this season. Unsurprisingly, the veteran backstop had the 15th-fastest throw down to second base last season, coming in at 83.4 MPH. Combining Jackson’s elite arm with his plus exchange time (he tied for the 12th-fastest exchange time in 2025), Minnesota has one of the best run-game mitigating catchers in baseball. Jackson’s addition to the 26-man roster came at the unfortunate expense of losing Ryan Jeffers (who was in the midst of a career year offensively) to the 10-day IL with a broken left hamate bone. Still, while Jackson won’t be able to make up for Jeffers’s absence in the batter’s box, he will add value behind the plate, likely being Minnesota’s best defensive catcher since Joe Mauer transitioned into a full-time first baseman in 2014. View full article

Image courtesy of © Eric Canha-Imagn Images After making his major-league debut on Jul. 5, 2025, Travis Adams struggled in his first cup of coffee in the majors, generating a 7.49 ERA, a 5.39 FIP, and a 31-to-17 strikeout to walk ratio over 33 2/3 innings pitched. The then-25-year-old navigated an unpredictable role, jumping between starting games and coming in as a stretch or short reliever on an appearance-to-appearance basis. Given his late struggles, Adams failed to solidify a spot on Minnesota’s 26-man roster late last season, meaning the now-26-year-old would need to compete for a spot in the club’s eight-pitcher bullpen this spring training. Unfortunately, Adams pitched only 2 2/3 innings this spring before being sidelined with right elbow inflammation in mid-March. Luckily, the righty’s elbow sustained no structural damage, and he returned to the mound on a rehab assignment at Single-A Fort Myers in mid-April, before joining the Triple-A St. Paul Saints later that month. Upon his return to St. Paul, Adams’s surface stats were uninspiring, including a 9.00 ERA over six innings pitched. Still, his 2.69 FIP suggested the right-hander had been unlucky, and that maybe something new was happening. Due to 40-man roster constraints, Minnesota promoted the struggling Adams to the parent club on May 9 when Taj Bradley was placed on the 15-day IL with right pec muscle inflammation. The former mid-level prospect made two appearances for the Twins over a four-day stretch, earning a 7.36 ERA over 3 2/3 innings pitched. Again, however, his underlying metrics suggested he was pitching better than his counting stats. Over that exceptionally small sample, Adams netted a 2.01 FIP and 25% strikeout rate, suggesting he had again been the victim of poor luck. Still, Minnesota demoted him on May 14 to make room for starting pitcher Zebby Matthews on the 26-man roster. Interestingly, Twins decision-makers were quick to provide him another opportunity, recalling him five days later after designating veteran right-handed reliever Justin Topa for assignment. (Technically, he replaced Ryan Jeffers, who was placed on the 10-day IL, but he took Topa’s spot in the bullpen.) In two appearances since May 19, Adams has been unhittable over 14 batters faced, posting a 0.00 ERA, 1.85 FIP, and 30.8% strikeout rate. The righty has generated these results over two separate two-inning appearances, against the Houston Astros on May 19 and the Boston Red Sox on May 22. Adams particularly played an integral role in Minnesota’s 8-6 comeback win against Boston, which was arguably their most impressive win of the season. He then earned his first career save against the Red Sox on Sunday. Again, I am analyzing a very small sample. Still, it appears that Adams has made meaningful strides toward becoming an effective short reliever in a bullpen desperate for serviceable internal options. Adams’s early-season success appears to be the product of an altered arsenal, highlighted by a shift in his change and cutter usage. In 2025, the righty used his changeup only 17% of the time. He's raised his usage rate to 30% this season. The pitch has an average movement profile. However, he's using it more effectively, almost exclusively throwing it low in the zone to left-handed hitters. It's posted a .104 expected batting average against (xBA) and a .108 expected slugging average against (xSLG), showcasing its effectiveness against lefties. bGJ3TDdfWGw0TUFRPT1fVWdKUlhWTUVVZ0lBWFFjTEFBQUhWUU5VQUFBTlVGa0FWMWNHQkFzQ1Z3RURBUU5m.mp4 His cutter has also made strides, with Adams using it 22% of the time this season, up from 19% in 2025. It's a truer cutter this season than last, with more backspin and less blending with his slider. Attacking hitters high in the zone, the pitch has netted a similarly impressive .166 xBA and .185 xSLG in 2026. The cutter and change have gotten more exercise, while he's all but shelved his curveball and sinker. Adams’s fastball still needs work; it has below-average velocity and an unimpressive movement profile. Yet, it appears that Adams has refined his arsenal against both left- and right-handed hitters this season. As improbable as it would have sounded even a few weeks ago, he could remain effective and finally solidify a long-term role in Minnesota’s bullpen. View full article