JD-TWINS

I missed the $10M Dead Money Entry for Correa ………. actually total of 15.9% over Budget ……. around $159 M.

My budget Total is just above that of the 2023 TWINS. …… it’s actually $10M less for guys on the field if one removed Correa’s money. I think that both Jeffers & Arraez could be signed for 2 year deals at a slightly smaller number of $19M each. Martin - Funderburk - Wallner can be traded assuming they are out of options. Overpay 10% and sign Martin Perez …… flex reliever starter IF needed. Healthy often - experienced - versatile. Ober is worthwhile in a new role as a bridge from starter to 8th or 9th inning. Can flex to starter occasionally IF needed. Experienced & versatile. ………If Perez & Ober have ERA’s hovering 4.00 or slightly above, it’s a WIN! Matthews - Morris - Gomez in the back end with Hoffman mixing in as he’s healthy. Lopez - Prielipp - Ryan - Rojas ……..get 3 full seasons of “starter innings (540 innings)” between these 4 guys. Assuming 4.5 months of health from Ryan & Lopez ……. Prielipp & Rojas can still get some innings breaks through the season. …….. Bradley & Kremer are 6 & 5 innings respectively, for 31 starts each. Keaschall or Buxton is DH v. LH pitching…….. they both play fairly regularly v. RH pitching in LF & RF……..Clemens sees time in LF ending games if Keaschall is a weak link defensively. Clemens also starts 30% of the time at 1B v. RH starters. Clemens also plays 10% of games at 2B. Arraez holds down 2B for ‘27 & IF Houston pushes his way in to the Roster in ‘28 …… Arraez can DH a bunch as Larnach will be gone. Jeffers for 2 years - Jackson for 1 year …….. perfect set-up to ease new, youth Catching pool into MLB reality. IF - if there’s great feelings around Abel’s health and abilities, Ryan could be shopped for a Bat or a solid reliever with longer control……. + MiLB prospect arm. My BUDGET would be $4M of Jeffers’s number actually being paid to a team that would be up for taking Victor Caratini off of our roster. C: Ryan Jeffers ($23.0M) 1B: Royce Lewis ($5.10M) 2B: Luis Arraez ($19.0M) 3B: Brooks Lee ($1.00M) SS: Kaelen Culpepper ($1.00M) LF: Luke Keaschall ($1.00M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Walker Jenkins ($1.00M) DH: Trevor Larnach ($6.30M) 4th OF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($1.00M) Utility: Cody Clemens ($3.60M) Utility: Ryan Kreidler ($1.00M) Backup C: Alex Jackson ($2.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.50M) SP2: Joe Ryan ($9.60M) SP3: Dean Kremer ($6.50M) SP4: Connor Prielipp ($1.0M) SP5: Taj Bradley ($4.50M) RP: Jeff Hoffman ($7.25M) RP: Bailey Ober ($6.90M) RP: Tommy Nance ($1.20M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Martin Perez ($6.6M) RP: Andres Gomez ($1.00M) RP: Andrew Morris ($1.00M) RP: Zebby Matthews ($1.00M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 9.61% over budget

Exactly - don’t need to read any other comments. Trade Caratini and eat half of the $10M owed inclusive of his buyout for ‘28. Take the $5M saved on Vic and add it to Jeffers $6M already being paid in ‘26. …… so he gets a $12M bump above Catcher spending in ‘26. Other option is to offer a lucrative 2 year deal to Jeffers (2 for $18.5M/year, as an example) as a firm bridge to Lackey & the other 2-3 young Catchers in the organization. Gotta do something positive to be “competitive”. ……….Can’t have Caratini as “lead Catcher” going into’27! Having Lee & Lewis & Keaschall all in the proper defensive spots to start the season would be a big boost over start of ‘26. Lopez out all season - Sands out 3/4 of season - Festa out all season - Banda out 1/2 season - Abel out 80% of season………etc. ……… Staff will start the year MUCG stronger in ‘27 even if Lopez isn’t ready & Banda is gone ………… assuming ”someone” will probably injured as well.

I’m not sure the suggestions were/are a reflection of Team’s current in-house options (the bench) v. just being poor suggestions. …… the guys gotta write about something though.

Generally, like the thoughts…… I live in Cincinnati and Stephenson is a guy to stay away from……..after August 1 he had 12 hits and one HR over last 2 months. Certainly can’t sign more than a year at a time! Weak defense (arm) and hits as hot & Cold just like Caratini of 2026. Do not understand his WAR at 2.5?? To me, Jackson is better on both O & D…….no idea what he’d do in a bigger role though. Push HARD to sign Jeffers and then eat some of Caratini’s salary with a trade. Jeffers & Jackson works for me. Jeffers for $37M over 2 years …… money well spent. I keep Ober and transition him to PEN. He can be effective starting innings and could go 2+ innings a couple times per week. To me (& you) the Larnach move is obvious! 73% of pitchers are RH and he fits as a 15 game starter in OF who gets replaced in late innings if needed. Steady DH v. RH starters …… solid PH in appropriate situations? Lowe signed w/Reds for next to nothing ……. seems his value probably went up considerably with performance in Cincy & Cleveland. I guess he doesn’t exude power with his frame, but Clemens seems to have elevated to Lowe’s level or better……… I like a mix of mostly Lewis & maybe 25-30% Clemens at IB in ‘27. Kreidler or youth at 2B when Clemens is at 1B. Spend $$ on Jeffers and a Minter type (experienced/successful reliever) Minter seems as good of a choice as any other, on a healthy one year deal. With Ober - Matthews - Rojas - Prielipp - Festa (2 of the 4 at a minimum) in the PEN, then adding Sands & Banda to the mix………..I don’t see huge need for more PEN moves…….they have a dozen in the mix and with a Minter signing (or like) they could be very effective.

Jorge Mateo - De Los Santos ……..these guys do not help the Club improve or win games! Can’t add guys that can’t hit …… like Kiner-Faleffa …… have that guy in Ryan Kreidler (not as polished w/glove, but certainly effective) Bednar currently pitches for the Yankees…… seriously, people here need to be realistic…….. the Twins may have the 7th best offer to Bednar’s agent across MLB…… at best. Grichuk wasn’t signed by Team the past two seasons so now, after his best season v. LH hitting he is in Waaaay to high of demand for the Twins to be involved. …… I’d like him due to experience and grit & obviously, his ability with the bat…….just do not see this as realism with other franchises competing for his services. Tough to pry guys away from Playoff teams after a good year since, if they are at all worthwhile, the 2026 Club will extend a competitive offer.

Deep breaths…….,

My question is, what position does a new, BAT, difference maker PLAY? Outfield seems crowded at this point with existing possibilities (Keaschall/Buxton/Jenkins +/+)…….not saying they couldn’t go a different way with a FA or trade but seems very doubtful. Other Teams aren’t trading offensive catchers - Twins, nearly every time, would get outbid in FA….. seems too simple but loading up a deal for Jeffers for 2 years…….. $18M/year……. a good place to spend!……..if he signs, could trade Caratini & cover some of his salary to move him ……. saved $$ applied to Jeffers. Not a bunch of effective FA BATS available for 2B, that I can imagine. 1B is a probable ….. do they run it back with Royce & give him until the All-star break to maintain his spot? Any DH, that’s BETTER than platooning Larnach v. RH and Keaschall or Buxton v. lefties is going to cost waaay more than would be worthwhile, for the guy Team gets signed………no reason to release Larnach & try to sign a guy the might hit 7-8 more HR but hit 25 points less and strike out 5% more & pay more……..no real upside in that move. If they sign Jeffers (nearly zero chance IMO) they still have $$ to apply to relief help………I just saw Hoffman is having Elbow Surgery - never good!

Agreed! My point is if the Ownership doesn’t give parameters on spending & stick to them, at whatever level, the FO (any FO people) cannot create a cohesive plan year upon year. Getting the development to be at a high level is every team’s/organization’s goal. It’s a bit easier to not be great at that element if you have some $$ to spend. There are very few teams that have glaring strengths in drafting & developing……that part, having the Organization talent at the Top & getting it right are the strengths of Tampa - Milwaukee and a few teams that spend freely as well. …….. Milwaukee’s decision makers originated in Tampa…….. Twins just got their pitching coach from Tampa - hopefully, some organizational knowledge will rub off!

Exactly! Brewers do have a generational young pitcher they pay $750K ……. nice scouting & great fortune!! They signed Churio to a long-term deal….smart. They have a broken down guy making a lot more money than his teammates & contributions warrant (similar to Buxton) in Yelich. The Brewers spent nearly $147M on roster salary in 2026. ………. That’s $35-$40M more than the Twins ……… still $10M less than the Twins spend in 2023. IF Twins had $35M more to spend going into the offseason last year, I firmly believe that a couple guys that they would have signed, coupled with a healthy Lopez would have had them at 90 wins……..Lopez health alone cost them a handful of wins. Just “spend normally” and be competitive.

The Royals were good from 2013-2016……….having a decade break on either side of one Title, to me, isn’t a very interesting franchise to follow. Winning the Series is extremely difficult but getting into post season with an opportunity to “get hot” or “get some breaks”, 50-60% of the time is a great team to follow. …….. the Twins aren’t getting to the playoffs with any regularity - that would drive fandom! Again, shooting for really bad, to hopefully become pretty good is a questionable approach…… the Astros tanked for at least 3 seasons to get the picks that propelled them. Do not remember them being noted as a frugal franchise but haven’t paid much attention to their spending…….they did take a relatively broken down Correa back for $23M of their money per year. White Sox had the absolute worst start mckelvey season record in history and consecutive 100 loss seasons……they barely made the playoffs once now and lost to a team they were up on 2-0, headed home. The Twins were in the playoffs and competitive in ‘23………. spent $155M. This year, starting the season, payroll was $106M. The $106 included $10M to Correa & $22M to Lopez. They had $74M spent on the field………either number is a telling contrast to the normalcy of 2023. The biggest difference between Cleveland & Tampa & Milwaukee is that this has been their strategy for a hell of a long time. Twins, mostly due to ownership, have no strategy nor plan. Signing Lopez & Correa (ownership committing) were moves that were a solid step, but then payroll went down, steeply after extending those two. That’s not a plan!! FO people aren’t miracle workers that can change an organization’s approach “whenever”, & get near-term results . Your comments “it’s not that hard”…….”it’s not rocket science” leads me to believe they should hire you to turn things down the right path.

Starting Pitching cannot be taken for granted, this seems to be the premise. Abel - Prielipp are a couple guys that showed very nice promise in bursts BUT the assumption that both or either will absolutely be available with good health in either ‘27 or ‘28 is the issue. Going into Spring Training this year most were just hoping Prielipp made it through the summer without injury ………. I don’t think anyone saw him throwing the innings and getting the starts he ended up with in ‘26, not with his history of physical ailments. Festa - Ober - Lopez - Ryan - Abel - Matthews - Bradley - Prielipp - Morris - Rojas ………..all 6 on the Top Line were injured for varying periods this year and most for significant chunks of time ….. 4 arms issues, leg issue, & blisters were the varying ailments. Ended up being so thin that they needed to trade for Kremer at the deadline. I guess the point is there needs to be, in modern baseball, a plan to have 10 guys assumed to be at MLB level capabilities going into Spring Training…………differing levels of capabilities but presumed capable w/o being a huge stretch.

Gotta come up with thoughts for articles in the off-season…….understood. Bohm is a decent player offensively…….essentially 2026 Brooks Lee stats year in & year out. As others have mentioned, keeping Lewis with the probability of a much higher ceiling is more prudent & gives Team every bit as much upside. Lewis might cost $5M with no strings & Bohm is probably middle teens in millions for 3 years. Don’t need that signing. Do need to spend a bit to improve. Payroll was $106M, with $10M & $22M going to Correa & Lopez for zero help on the field. $$ left for guys that played this year was at a $74M pace, until deadline moves. Guardian’s payroll was $75M - Tampa’s payroll was $98M - Brewer’s payroll was $144M……..IMO, Twins target should be $140M max for ‘27. I’d push hard to sign Jeffers & then find a trade partner for Caratini (will have to pay $5M of $10M owed him under his contract) …… this saves $5M to apply to Jeffers……they already pay Jeffers around $6.5M so after Caratini is moved you have $11.5M from last year’s total to apply to Jeffers. With QO, or better yet, a 2 year deal for $37-$38M the Team needs to spend an additional $8-$10M …….. Bell is gone (that’s $7M) to apply to Jeffers. If all else stays the same with Roster, I think they are around $110-$115M for ‘27, roughly. If they push to $140M it allows $20-$25M to spend on FA ……… this is after the typical raises via arbitration with many guys. I’m pretty optimistic about the future, starting immediately in ‘27. Lee at 3B from the jump helps winning% over ‘26. SAME with Culpepper & Jenkins. Re-signing Jeffers is maybe unlikely but it’s a good place to spend $$! I’m a proponent of Larnach for 1 more year, while platooning & essentially only acting as DH/pinch hitter. Might play a dozen games in the OF out of necessity? Keaschall & Buxton are the other side of the DH platoon. Keaschall - Buxton - Jenkins from left to right gives them a very competitive OF offensively and at least average defensively. Festa - Abel - Banda - Sands …….if any two of those guys pitch well, that strengthens the staff a bunch. Matthews - Rojas - Ober - Prielipp can battle for the 5th starter spot & at least 2 should then go to the Pen to contribute - just like Morris did in ‘26. 1 or 2 FA arms in PEN and a possible effective RH bat for OF/1B (either) or 2B would be $$ well spent in FA Market! Do NOT need Alex Bohm on the Roster!!

Gotta come up with thoughts for articles in the off-season…….understood. Bohm is a decent player offensively…….essentially 2026 Brooks Lee stats year in & year out. As others have mentioned, keeping Lewis with the probability of a much higher ceiling is more prudent & gives Team every bit as much upside. Lewis might cost $5M with no strings & Bohm is probably middle teens in millions for 3 years. Don’t need that signing. Do need to spend a bit to improve. Payroll was $106M, with $10M & $22M going to Correa & Lopez for zero help on the field. $$ left for guys that played this year was at a $74M pace, until deadline moves. Guardian’s payroll was $75M - Tampa’s payroll was $98M - Brewer’s payroll was $144M……..IMO, Twins target should be $140M max for ‘27. I’d push hard to sign Jeffers & then find a trade partner for Caratini (will have to pay $5M of $10M owed him under his contract) …… this saves $5M to apply to Jeffers……they already pay Jeffers around $6.5M so after Caratini is moved you have $11.5M from last year’s total to apply to Jeffers. With QO, or better yet, a 2 year deal for $37-$38M the Team needs to spend an additional $8-$10M …….. Bell is gone (that’s $7M) to apply to Jeffers. If all else stays the same with Roster, I think they are around $110-$115M for ‘27, roughly. If they push to $140M it allows $20-$25M to spend on FA ……… this is after the typical raises via arbitration with many guys. I’m pretty optimistic about the future, starting immediately in ‘27. Lee at 3B from the jump helps winning% over ‘26. SAME with Culpepper & Jenkins. Re-signing Jeffers is maybe unlikely but it’s a good place to spend $$! I’m a proponent of Larnach for 1 more year, while platooning & essentially only acting as DH/pinch hitter. Might play a dozen games in the OF out of necessity? Keaschall & Buxton are the other side of the DH platoon. Keaschall - Buxton - Jenkins from left to right gives them a very competitive OF offensively and at least average defensively. Festa - Abel - Banda - Sands …….if any two of those guys pitch well, that strengthens the staff a bunch. Matthews - Rojas - Ober - Prielipp can battle for the 5th starter spot & at least 2 should then go to the Pen to contribute - just like Morris did in ‘26. 1 or 2 FA arms in PEN and a possible effective RH bat for OF/1B (either) or 2B would be $$ well spent in FA Market! Do NOT need Alex Bohm on the Roster!!

I agree that Bradley should get consideration! I agree Keaschall’s defense is a problem, to say the least………..3rd most effective offensive player in the A.L. for the last 3 months coupled with 3.0 WAR (inclusive of his defense being a negative with WAR) are too much of a big deal to ignore or discount. To me …… Keaschall - Bradley - Clemens …… Bell. AVAILABILITY, and the lack of with Buxton & Jeffers, is a big deal ……. having good numbers for 3 months & not playing much at all the other 3 months is not worthy to be in an MVP conversation. ……… same with Jeffers missing 2+ months. Bell had enough RBI and was available whenever called upon, essentially daily……..Bell helped win a bunch of games! Clemens hitting with power and playing 3-4 positions, as needed, gets him in the mix.