JD-TWINS

I understand the broad strokes comments about Payroll increases not being the cure all! Good decisions are tough to quantify in the near-term as lots of variables come into play going forward…….good decisions are hind-sight observations. Sure want to make positive moves & expect good results! However, Team cannot seriously improve the PEN via trade or FA w/o being willing to spend $15-$20M more in ‘27 (2 guys)….IMO. I do not think they sign any PEN pieces in off-season………they work with options in house and spend at the deadline (Minter - Hoffman types) via trade, if there’s an obvious need. Team cannot improve at Catcher without spending $5-$17M additional $$ over ‘26. There needs to be focus on 1 BAT improvement to be serious for any post-season chances. Maybe that’s not until the Deadline? It will cost some $$ over last 2 months or years going forward depending upon contract as well as a trade piece or two…..which is fine. LOTS of competition for good players in the market, that want $$$, so just wanting to “spend & sign guys” isn’t an easy task. ………. that competitive difficulty in signing guys really supports your point that they cannot rely on spending alone to fill the current voids. Wallner has been jettisoned, obviously, I like Ober in the PEN along side Rojas from the left side……..guys that can each throw 1+ - 3 innings per outing every 2-5 days depending upon pitches thrown. To me that’s valuable. It gets guys like Sands cut down to 1 inning max and not using him (them) with extraordinary expectations. I keep Ryan & see how things go & if it’s advantageous to sell at Deadline, then sure……. risk, sure but gives Team a real shot to be pretty decent out of Spring Training. I keep Larnach as the platoon guy opposite Keaschall & Buxton at DH. Larnach, when platooned, had very solid & “like years” in ‘24 & ‘26. He’s cheap at $7M for the value provided. I have no reason to think that Roden or Rodriguez will flourish as hitters and potential effective LH candidates at DH….big “maybe?” Trading Wallner & young pitcher ……… Roden & young pitcher may land a couple “potential assets” in the PEN…….. not counting on that working out. Buxton - Jenkins - Keaschall - Rodriguez - Gonzalez/Martin …….. Martin, to me is a stretch. He might go in a bundled deal with Roden or Wallner with a Team exploring OF depth/options. $157M in ‘23 …….$107M in ‘26 ……. gotta pay more $$ across the board to be competitive. Ryan - Larnach - Jeffers are all valuable players and paying them (guys like them) at market rates, does not swell the payroll to some level even approaching the ‘23 payroll spend……..Make a serious run at Jeffers & trade Caratini and pay $4M of &10M owed him and obtain a guy like Jackson IF $$ are that tight. …….. Jeffers leaves after QO year, or, if signed for multiple years, he can easily be moved when young guys in system are ready. Obviously, the various paths seem infinite at this point …….. am always hopeful that things will work out…….🤞

Unless he’s hurt - Jenkins is viewed as a Top 3 player on the Roster starting the season. Will he be healthy???? Clemens has certainly played his way on to the Roster over the past 1.6 years with the Twins! He’s definitely in the mix but more and more like Willi Castro roll v. everyday lock in line-up. …….. I’m 100% behind the Show Me school on earning a spot, so Jenkins isn’t a Star in my mind, yet, BUT, when healthy & with experience, his upside can’t be ignored …… they stuck with Lee - Clemens - Keaschall through early couple months of ‘26 with pretty poor performance from two of them with ups & downs with Clemens. Jenkins has enough obvious ability that he’s a lock on the Roster with a probable everyday spot in RF for the season…….regardless of Spring Training numbers.

Kody has been versatile and his splits aren’t wildly different ……. .233 v. LH & .241 v. RH. He’s on the Club! His 27HR’s can’t be dismissed! I don’t agree about the 2B defense… Team should be better there. I think he moves back & forth between 1B - 2B - Corner OF ………. really more of a guy that starts 75% of the time or more but he needs (Team’s responsibility) to hit down in the 6-7 spot in the line-up & not 3-4…….at least most of the time……..as you stated in part, his offense at 2B v. other guys in the game is high end, at least above average. Need better D there.

Surely lacking some organizational plan along with reasonable health from anticipated contributors. Tampa & Milwaukee & Cleveland are fabulous examples of what very shrewd FO/organization people can get done with less $$ resources. The KEY is they have discipline, a consistent philosophy, and a PLAN to operate within certain budget limits/goals. Minnesota spent $125M in ‘21 - $141M in ‘22 - $158M in ‘23 - $127M in ‘24 - $137M in ‘25 - $115M in ‘26 (after $$ adds from deadline trades)………the last 3 seasons have seen significant drops in spending w/o having this as a plan. They were averaging 5-7% payroll increase for a few years through ‘22…. ‘23 was the high & Team was in the playoffs. ‘25 & ‘26 spending were “planned on” in November/December shooting from the hip as compared to Tampa or Milwaukee or Cleveland. Of this past season’s spending $22M were paid to Lopez w/o any contribution on the mound……….$10M were paid against Correa’s salary in Houston. That’s $83M paid out for the players on the field through most of ‘26. No FO is going to succeed with this type of ownership behavior!

Not necessarily in 100% agreement but I did notice that you didn’t mention the guy I think is Most Overhyped - Emma Rodriguez. I would not feel bad at all if he was not on the roster to start & beyond ‘27. Morris looked great for a couple months & not so great on either side of those 2 months. 1 inning at a time is definitely his role. Pitch mix & 4-seam control are the things he & most other pitchers in the game need to refine. Abel threw 13 scoreless over his last 2 starts - he’s only thrown 59 MLB innings, so if healthy, I like him to be part of the mix going forward. Certainly not very established, as you point out. Morris - Hoffman - Gomez - Sands - Matthews - Ober - Festa - Parades - Acton are all Right Handers competing for PEN in ‘27……probably missed a couple? Banda - Funderburk - Rojas & ?? from Left side in PEN …,,….. could maybe make an argument by next July that 2-3 of these 12 guys could be part of the core going forward. Lopez - Ryan - Bradley - Prielipp - Abel - Kremer seems to be a group that “could” get it done but certainly not overwhelming for opponents……….Prielipp hasn’t pitched enough, with his tenuous health history, for me to think he’s part of the Core but he certainly made some steps forward - seemed much more comfortable over last handful of starts.

From May 1, until Banda got hurt at end of June, his ERA was 1.35 over 23 appearances. Sands hardly pitched all year & was expected to at least be a Top 4 guy from the PEN. Festa was a depth guy for rotation, then probably was to become what was Travis Adam’s spot…….longer relief. Abel gave up 0 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 starts. Festa is 25 & Abel is 24, so their “career stats”, IMO, aren’t really that significant. Team had to absorb the loss of Lopez as well, just because it happened at the beginning of Spring Training doesn’t mean that he doesn’t need to be replaced with depth that’s in place. …….then 2 more probable starters……..then Ober & then Ryan. The relievers aren’t exactly dominant guys but were counted on ……… losing 3 starters isn’t a typical occurrence for what ultimately becomes “a good Team” near the end of the season.

No offense but that’s bologna - Festa was a fringe rotation candidate ……. Abel had 2 very solid outings in a row and looked like an effective #4 starter going forward ……… Lopez was at the top of the Rotation. There are maybe 3 teams in the game that can absorb missing 470-520 innings from their rotation…….particularly when 1 guy is supposed to be your best……… Banda pitched to end of June this season and his last 2 of 3 months were solid. Woods Richardson going 0-7 with an ERA between 7.00-8.00 didn’t help either……..the guy just collapsed.

Who is back from the position player standpoint? My preference blended with how the FO/organization behaves, usually. LEWIS - (.164 BA prior to being sent down) had a .271 BA since June 10th ………. 14 HR’s in 124 games ……. 15 stolen bases. With any sort of success and 140+ starts, he can easily be a 20/20 guy, with 25/25 not far above a realistic prognostication. LEE is at 3B - CULPEPPER is at SS - CLEMENS is at 2B & back up at 1B & corner OF - LEWIS at 1B with some fill in duty at 2B………….. KEASCHALL in LF due to lack of arm - BUXTON is in CF - JENKINS is in RF ……….. Jeffers or someone they trade for will start ……. Larnach at LH platoon DH …….. w/Keaschall & Buxton from the RH side. E-Rod & Martin are depth OF with Clemens occasionally. Caratini is depth behind the plate. 1 spot still open …….. seems it’s a depth guy in IF. Not much changing from the end of ‘26 options. IMO, not many needed. Pitching must greatly improve!!! Spend $$ on 3 arms not currently in team’s future control. Arms obtained in trade or via Free Agency. CATCHER is the wildcard roster hole that needs to be plugged!

Estimating or predicting Wins for a SEASON is silly since there are way too many variables in play …….. i.e. Wallner’s zero to negative contribution - SWR was equally as bad as Wallner from a negative contribution standpoint - Banda/Sands/Lopez/Festa/Abel all missed SIGNIFICANT time …… Ryan MISSED a number of weeks…….. Lee was terrible as a SS, defensively ……. Lewis was mediocre over the entirety of the year …….. Buxton, once again, played less than 100 games. Culpepper - Jenkins got hurt and weren’t ready to help in August - Rodriguez slid into first base and needed thumb surgery, he too wasn’t ready in August. Stuff is going to happen to every Team - understood. Going to win some you probably shouldn’t and lose some that were squarely in your grasp. For this Team to Win 76 games, while blowing at least 20 other solid Win Opportunities………it did better than I would have expected. IF most of the things that happened, with injuries or unexpected poor performance from a few, the Team had a real shot at 88-90 Wins.

2024 & 2026 stats averaged (he’s an above average platoon bat) & it shows me why he should be kept through arbitration as the LH platoon DH ……… Keaschall & Buxton from the right side as probable DH candidates. They pay Victor Caratini $7M this year and he’ll cost $9M in ‘27 because he’ll get an additional $2M for his buyout….. paying Larnach $7M to be an effective DH against 73% of starters (RH pitchers) is a simple YES going forward. 2024/2026 blended: (he faced 118 AB’s v. lefties in ‘25 & it crushed his stats) .264 BA - .345 OBP - .435 Slug% - 14 HR/year with less than 400 AB’s ………..OPS of .780 - OPS+ of 116 & 121 respectively. As a platoon DH, what the hell is wrong with Trevor Larnach in ‘27? The TEAM spend was $106 M in ‘26 ……… can’t be anywhere near that low in ‘27!! He’s worth an additional $2.5M and Bell’s $7M will be freed up……… logically, it seems like a straightforward move for ‘27.

My assumption is there is the pull to keep Kremer as a depth option & am assuming he’s out of options. ……….go through a bargain arbitration for him ……… if he has a decent Spring he’ll be in the rotation early …….. certainly a probable trade piece as the season moves forward.

Nobody suggested wild spending - nothing even close to 50% of what the Dodgers or Mets spend! How about what the Twins spent in 2023? ……. $154M …… that’s the minimum they should be at in ‘26, regardless of who they drafted. Wallner has been in AAA for parts of 3 of the last 4 years, “to straighten himself out” ….. last year he was hurt twice & didn’t get sent down. He IS a big disappointment………. he had over 140 OPS+ in ‘24 ……….. is that a poor draft pick or just a guy that didn’t/hasn’t applied himself to get the most out of his ability? Lewis has had his knee reconstructed twice and has missed 3 chances complete seasons due to Covid and his knee issues. He’s had other soft tissue leg injuries & missed significant stretches. He seems to have settled in defensively since he made the move to 1B ……. his offense has been League average since his stint in St. Paul …………. does the responsibility that he’s missed essentially 4 seasons since being drafted in 2017 fall on the GM that drafted him? Emma has been highly touted for 3 years. He has averaged 60 games per season for the last 6 seasons ……… he slid head first into 1st base this year and needed thumb surgery. Is his ignorance/recklessness on the GM? Larnach is a platoon bat and highly successful when used that way! He should be the DH in ‘27 from the left side v. RH pitching (73% of pitchers in MLB) 2024 (full season) strict platoon …. .259BA - 116 OPS+ - .338 OBP - .434 slug% - .771OPS - 15HR - 52 RBI ………good numbers! 2026 (as of this morning) strict platoon … .266 BA - 116 OPS+ - .348 OBP - .424 slug% - .772 OPS - 12HR - 47 RBI ……. good numbers! What is wrong with this guy? He was hurt for parts of 3 years & in ‘24 he came around & had a decent season. In ‘25 organization decided to give him 118 AB’s against LH pitching & his lack of success knocked his numbers down that season. This year he’s essentially identical to ‘24. Solid. I don’t understand the Larnach hate? Kiriloff was a guy highly thought of after being drafted - hurt, hurt, & hurt again & then retired….. the GM should have a crystal ball? Btw, same FO drafted Culpepper & Jenkins.

2016 Indians did well with a modest payroll, getting to the World Series. 1997 Indians did well with a roster littered with high paid players, getting to the World Series.

However, I did conveniently mention “historical operating practices” regarding payroll totals! They INCREASED payroll year over year, consistently. Period. Sure Cleveland, for the past 10 plus years have not spent a bunch of $$. They do it well!! My point is not that it’s impossible to spend less & be successful - my point is you need a PLAN as an organization. In none of the “……3 successful organizations that are thrifty” did ownership drop spending 12%-19%-32% from a baseline amount, 3 years prior. Pirates - Reds - Seattle - White Sox - K.C. etc. are also teams I didn’t mention that would/could be a hell of a lot better, year to year, if they spent $$ at a higher rate…….. Reds sign Hunter Green ……hurt a bunch (just like Pablo & Byron) …… they paid Eugenio Suarez “off the scrap heap” & he is not good - they signed Lowe for 1st base platoon for low$ - with OK success…… everyone is “trying to be smart, within a budget”. Sometimes it works but often it doesn’t - not just a Derek Falvey issue……….Is it the Pirates GM’s problem Paul Skenes got knocked around for 3 months? You sign guys to live up to their baseball cards and often it just doesn’t happen - players play!

The OWNERSHIP approved a $33M/yr SS and the next year (after increasing salaries annually, for a decade 5-10%/year) reduced payroll from $154 to $135 …….12.5% decrease (after signing Correa!) ………. then they reduced payroll in ‘25 to $125M - 19% less than ‘23 ……… in ‘26 the payroll is $106M - 32% reduction from ‘23. With 4% annual (modest!) increases from ‘23 the Payroll for ‘27 would be $180M for the season……..fans “are hoping they will spend $120M…..” I don’t get the disassociation between the slashes in “payroll approach” & the lack of talent/depth to be highly competitive - I guess I’m clueless.