Steven Trefz

Meet "Stevie" the elf. Think of him as a cross between Where's Waldo, Flat Stanley, & Circle-me-Bert. He's going to be joining me on the road this summer for some Twins away game excitement, and believe it or not summer starts tomorrow! Kansas City here we come! 70 degrees, a pleasant breeze, and hopefully a few bombas from our favorite nine. Pablo wheels and deals, Duran closes the door, and 2023's version of "Hope Springs Eternal" can finally turn the page to "Summer of Victory." I have a lot of excitement as I head into the first road series. My friend Jeff and I have plans to see the Negro League Hall of Fame on Friday during the off-day (luckily avoiding the first rain-out of the season). We seem to have great weather for baseball, and the stadium was built for day games. I've been asked quite a few times in the past week or so, "Why are you doing this?" Or, "What's your goal for these trips?" I really don't know any more... At first, it was mostly about the exhilirating thought exercise of planning the trips out, and seeing if it was even humanly possible (without a Billion-dollar organization backing me!). Then the trips became a way to recover relationships with friends and family that COVID and adulthood had pushed into the background. Then it became the stubborn cultural genetics within me that screamed "You can't quit now!" And now? Now, I answer those questions like this: "I'm going on these trips because somehow, some way, I believe that good and beauty and joy are going to find me on the road between here and there." At my local church, Fusion Church in Mitchell, SD, I just got done working on a sermon series entitled "On the Way." The theme addresses how most of the amazing and powerful Bible stories that we remember actually happened when Jesus and his friends were "on the way" to somewhere else. Someone stops him and asks for healing, someone walks with them for a while and asks key life questions. The group is headed somewhere, and notice someone or something that makes them stop and be present there for a while. Over the past three years, I've missed being "on the way" to other places. I need to be surprised by some new questions. I need to be struck by something I've never seen or experienced before. I need to be inconvenienced by a challenge or opportunity that crosses my path. Do I hope the Twins win every game this year? Of course. I'm the only human who has ever predicted them to go 162-0 and actually believed it could happen. But I know, win or lose, life is going to happen "on the way" to the games. I've updated my twitter handle if you want real-time in game updates from the stadium: @TwinsTrefz and my email: TwinsTrefz@gmail.com If you are headed to Kansas City this weekend, or any future road series, shoot me an email and let me know! I would love to celebrate a Twins win (or loss) with you "on the way." Grace and peace, Steve

The starting rotation stays in order. The bullpen is divided into high and low-leverage options. Advanced metrics point out statistical differences between home and away splits. Should these rotations be taken for granted as plug-and-play decisions? Or should the game's location play a larger role in determining which pitcher takes the hill? These questions led me to ask "What pitchers on the current roster stand out as “road warriors,” and who might be better off "getting a couple of extra days of rest" when the team takes a road trip?" Image courtesy of William Parmeter Where a baseball game is played has an impact on the game itself. This shouldn't surprise anyone. How much of an impact does location have on player success? That question is still up for debate. Park Factors continue to advance in quality and scope year after year. While we haven't seen this metric necessarily impact in-game decision-making, a look at the 2022 Twins season's home and away splits points out a few telling factors that might be worth a closer look during the 2023 season. Looking through the wonder that is FanGraphs, I dug into some of the Twins FIP information for 2022. Since I actually wanted to keep stadium type and normal schedule in the mix, I chose FIP over xFIP, but feel free to run the names and numbers yourself to see what changes. The first thing that I noticed was that Jermaine Palacios ranked top ten in FIP in 2022. For those who weren’t paying attention, Mr. Palacios isn’t a pitcher, and only pitched 2/3 of an inning of mop-up time in one game for the Twins. Apparently, this advanced metric requires intentional sifting in order to establish helpful information. Jovani Moran and Chris Paddack are the first two current Twins players that crack the top of the FIP list, and these names are significant to the Twins’ plans in 2023. The crickets chirp until #148 with Griffin Jax making an appearance. Caleb Thielbar checks in at #183, and Bailey Ober ranked #214. Other than the utter lack of mainline Twins starters at the top of the road pitching success list, Jhoan Duran’s away FIP of 3.63 (ranking him 300th) serves as the most startling statistic. Especially since Duran's home FIP of 1.34 ranks him 30th. This trend obviously needs attention if the Twins are to make a playoff push in 2023. Is the split difference enough to warrant a bullpen rotation change on the road? Another interesting parallel trend comes in the fact that Joe Ryan and Emilio Pagan reside in similar places on the away FIP list, both on the home and away sides of the ledger. Ryan’s 3.62 FIP at home compares to his 4.47 FIP on the road, while Pagan’s 3.80 FIP at home balloons to a 4.83 FIP on the road. The rookie Ryan’s performance might be explainable through the lens of experience (or lack thereof), but Pagan’s trend points to a bigger problem at the back end of the bullpen when combined with Duran’s youthful struggles. As a team, the Twins fell in the bottom of the MLB in FIP on the road, with a move up the charts if xFIP is considered. With the bulk of the Twins starters residing on the bottom half of the list, this isn’t surprising but definitely needs some directional change in order to improve in 2023. Perhaps the brightest light that emerged from this research was the perspective on just how strong and balanced of a rookie campaign Moran provided. You can see how his presence in the bullpen became a source of hope for Twins territory as the season progressed. Pitching staff construction involves many variables game in, and game out. As metrics continue to develop for road games and individual ballpark success, it will be interesting to see just how much the Twins bullpen usage fluctuates from series to series. In a world where righty/lefty splits rule the game without a second thought, is the home/away split metric the next wave of overthinking baseball? It’s near impossible to manipulate the starting pitching assignments from series to series due to requirements and rhythm of off-days, but the bullpen could be a worthy environment for this strategy as the Twins look to improve in 2023. PREP FOR THE SEASON WITH PREVIOUS 2023 TWINS' ROAD TRIP GUIDES Trip #1 Kansas City & Miami (3/30-4/5) Trip #2 New York & Boston (4/13-4/20) Trip #3 Chicago & Cleveland (5/2-5/7) Trip #4 I love LA!? (5/15-5/21) Trip #5 Houston, We have a Correa! (May 29-31) Trip #6 Tampa to Toronto (6/6-6/11) Trip #7 Detroit to Atlanta to Baltimore (6/23-7/2) Trip #8 West Coast Bound Again! Oakland/Seattle (7/14-7/20) Trip #9 Kansas City & St. Louis (7/28-8/3 Trip #10 Detroit & Philadelphia (8/7-8/13) Trip #11 Milwaukee (8/22-8/23) Trip #12 Texas & Cleveland (9/1-9/6) Trip #13 Chicago & Cincinnati (9/14-9/20) Trip #14 Colorado (9/29-10/1) View full article

Great points! I do think that trying to nurse through injuries makes road games more complicated. Every time I've been injured or recovering from surgery, a nice 4 hour plane ride hasn't helped the performance of my work the next day. So would it make sense to play the "less skilled" but healthy player above a walking-wounded player on a road trip? Let the somewhat injured player take those two series off so that they can actually heal? Interesting points also about resting at home if "mandatory rest days" are still a part of 2023's strategy. I'm curious to see how the new training staff approaches this season in this regard. And I would add "in his prime" Tony Gwynn to the Twins 2023 roster in a heartbeat 🙂!

As I outlined earlier this off-season, the Twins’ road woes in 2022 legitimately cost them the season. This led me to ask the question: As we prepare to welcome the 2023 version of the Twins into the new season, what position players on the current roster stands out as a “road warrior,” and who might be better off riding the pine when the team takes a road trip? Image courtesy of William Parmeter Anyone who has ever competed in an athletic event knows that a road game brings unique challenges. Travel, lodging, finding healthy meals, time away from family, time in front of fans cheering against you, finding suitable injury treatment, and changes in routine all present obstacles that need to be overcome in order to achieve success. The move from the Metrodome to Target Field exposed the influence that a particular ballpark layout and environment can have on a player. Any pitcher that tries to make a living at Coors Field (and any batter that took the money and ran from Coors!) can tell you that where you play the game matters too. It stands to reason that certain ballparks play into and out of a player's skill sets in different ways. Thanks to the afternoon-stealer known as FanGraphs, I dug into some of the batting wRC from road games information for 2022. Since I actually wanted to keep stadium type and normal schedule in the mix, I chose wRC over wRC+, but feel free to run the names and numbers yourself to see what changes. The top 40 names of best wRC on the road sounds like an All-Star roster. It’s also completely devoid of Twins players. Carlos Correa is the first to show up at #46, with a 42 wRC (126 wRC+). Luis Arraez joins the fray at #55, but of course he will be in the other dugout when the Twins come calling to Miami in early April. The next Twins entry is Gio Urshela at #112. Noticing a trend? The tide begins to turn towards 2023 with Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, Nick Gordon, and Byron Buxton cracking the top 160. I’m choosing to ignore Gary Sanchez being in there too, mainly just because I’m trying to keep this hopeful. As a team, the Twins fell in the middle of the MLB in wRC on the road, which is echoed by their 100 wRC+ score. This should be expected with very few outliers at the top of the success list, and very few players at the bottom. The top of the team list? A who’s who of playoff teams comes into focus. Noteworthy to me is Correa’s ability to perform amidst the boo-birds that he experienced all season long on the road. Royce Lewis’ amazing wRC+ (mid-300’s!) is tempered by the fact that we only got to witness it across eight road games. This speaks to the same injury and playing time issues that kept some of our better road performers to climb the list. Alex Kiriloff and Trevor Larnach showed their age and lingered towards the bottom third of the pack, and this is an area of professional ability that we can expect to grow into 2023. Rental players and minor leaguers/turned major leaguers due to necessity faired poorly, which is to be expected. This area is something to watch for as lineups get constructed on the road in 2023 as well, especially late in the season. Perhaps the brightest light that emerged from this research was the perspective on just how strong and balanced of a rookie campaign Miranda provided. You can see how his presence in the lineup became a source of hope for Twins territory as the season progressed. Lineup construction involves many variables. As metrics continue to develop for road games and individual ballpark success, it will be interesting to see just how much the Twins lineup fluctuates from series to series. In a world where righty/lefty splits rule the game, is the home/away split metric the next wave of overthinking baseball? Time will tell, but for Twins fans, improvement across this metric needs to happen sooner rather than later. PREP FOR THE SEASON WITH PREVIOUS 2023 TWINS' ROAD TRIP GUIDES Trip #1 Kansas City & Miami (3/30-4/5) Trip #2 New York & Boston (4/13-4/20) Trip #3 Chicago & Cleveland (5/2-5/7) Trip #4 I love LA!? (5/15-5/21) Trip #5 Houston, We have a Correa! (May 29-31) Trip #6 Tampa to Toronto (6/6-6/11) Trip #7 Detroit to Atlanta to Baltimore (6/23-7/2) Trip #8 West Coast Bound Again! Oakland/Seattle (7/14-7/20) Trip #9 Kansas City & St. Louis (7/28-8/3 Trip #10 Detroit & Philadelphia (8/7-8/13) Trip #11 Milwaukee (8/22-8/23) Trip #12 Texas & Cleveland (9/1-9/6) Trip #13 Chicago & Cincinnati (9/14-9/20) Trip #14 Colorado (9/29-10/1) View full article

March 30th. Kansas City. April 2nd. Miami. Plans are set, trip will happen. April 13th. New York. April 18th. Boston. Plans are set, trip will happen. In December I put forth an imaginative dream. What would it be like to travel to every Twins away game in a season? I ran the mileage, started to count the costs, negotiated reality, and now its here. The first month of the Twins season is only two weeks away! How has my investment influenced my interest in spring training, or in Twins baseball in general? As we hypothesize the opening day lineup, I watch with interest, knowing that I'll be there to see a player's opening day national anthem. I'll be there to see the bench standing at the top of the steps throughout the first game. I'll see the amped up starting pitchers, and the sweating-even-though-its-50-degrees-out relievers. I'll see the umps and managers navigate the awkward nature of the first useage of the pitch clock in the regular season. I've been to opening day three times at Target Field, but never on the road. Will they give me the Bobby Witt Jr. bobblehead if I'm in my baby blue Correa jersey? Will the home fans show up on a Thursday afternoon, or will transplanted Twins fans rule the stands? Will my budget which involves minimal ballpark food and drink even last through the first game... I finally bit the bullet on securing my KC to Florida flight. We are locating hotels near the Cooperstown HOF for the off-day later in the month. The reality of a five or six man rotation begins to influence my chance at watching wins. March snow storms lead me to believe that weather will have its say in April too. I get to see Arraez vs. Lopez week one. I get to see friends that I haven't seen in years. I get to visit three of the holy places of baseball. If there is anything in particular that you would love to know about the experience, from the stadium's quirks, to the in-game experiences in different parks, to the food and drink, to the activities of the players when the cameras of off: let me know. I'm hoping your ideas and participation along the way will make for a shared experience. If you are headed to the games, drop me a message. If you have some must-see suggestions, I want to hear them! Only 14 more sleeps as my kids used to say. Welcome 2023 Twins season, I can't wait to see where this journey takes us! Steve Trefz

The 14th and Final road trip of the 2023 Twins season leads the team to the mountains of Denver. It’s time to finish this season on a Mile High note against the Rockies! Coors Field. Let’s begin… Image courtesy of Isaiah J. Downing-USA TODAY Sports Sept 29-Oct. 1 @ Colorado Rockies (3 games) Coors Field - 2022 attendance was 2,597,428 (ranked 6th out of 15 NL teams, 9th overall MLB) Say what you will about Rockies baseball, but the fans continue to know how to pack a stadium. It seems like just yesterday, but Coors Field has been fueling baseball physics controversy since 1995. After two seasons at the now-imploded Mile High Stadium, the Rockies moved into their “new” home at over 5,000 feet above sea level. Coors Field led the league again in “runs park factor,” and it wasn’t even close (coincidentally the second and third teams on the list for 2022 make up the 13th Road Trip of the season!). Baseballs fly here, humidor, and big dimensions be darned. Quirks of the stadium include seats in center field called the “Rockpile,” an in-park brewery, a purple row of seats in the 300 level which marks the Mile-High point, and a mixed-use development district around the ballpark. The National Ballpark Museum is across the street, and exists as a “must-stop” for anyone on a baseball tour de force. The Denver Art Museum, Rocky Mountain parks and trails, and the Denver Zoo all can provide some entertainment in between games. Colorado isn’t expected to be a nuisance to many this season, but they have shown consistent resilience at home. This last series of the 2023 season won’t be easy, as a weary Twins squad comes into one of the hardest ballparks to earn a ‘W’ in all of baseball. Odds are that the Twins will need the victories here, so here’s to hoping our bats are lively and our pitchers don’t read statistical reports about Coors Field. It’s 569 miles from my front door to Coors Field, an almost nine hour journey across the great prairie of Nebraska or South Dakota/Wyoming. Friends and family aplenty are looking forward to using this trip as an excuse to finally get to a game in Denver, like they’ve been planning to for almost 30 years now! I have a dream of finding a way to get a suite for the final game of the season. I also hope to keep paying my mortgage. To be continued… Now it's your turn to plan! If you have been to Coors Field, please post your list of "best seats" and "must sees." Anyone else planning on going to this final series of the 2023 regular season? Grace and peace Twins Territory! Let's play ball! PREVIOUS 2023 TWINS' ROAD TRIP GUIDES Trip #1 Kansas City & Miami (3/30-4/5) Trip #2 New York & Boston (4/13-4/20) Trip #3 Chicago & Cleveland (5/2-5/7) Trip #4 I love LA!? (5/15-5/21) Trip #5 Houston, We have a Correa! (May 29-31) Trip #6 Tampa to Toronto (6/6-6/11) Trip #7 Detroit to Atlanta to Baltimore (6/23-7/2) Trip #8 West Coast Bound Again! Oakland/Seattle (7/14-7/20) Trip #9 Kansas City & St. Louis (7/28-8/3 Trip #10 Detroit & Philadelphia (8/7-8/13) Trip #11 Milwaukee (8/22-8/23) Trip #12 Texas & Cleveland (9/1-9/6) View full article

The 13th road trip of the 2023 Twins season takes us through Chicago and Cincinnati. It’s time to take charge of the stretch run against the White Sox and Reds! Guaranteed Rate Field. Great American Ball Park. Let’s begin… Image courtesy of Kareem Elgazzar/The Enquirer / USA TODAY NETWORK Sept. 14-17 @ Chicago White Sox (4 games) Guaranteed Rate Field - capacity 40,615 - 2022 attendance was 1,976,344 (ranked 8th out of 15 AL teams, 19th overall MLB) The Twins’ second trip of the season to Chicago leads them into their final regular season series against an AL Central opponent. The last time they were here was in May, and the weather will probably be quite similar. Will the division crown be impacted by this long series? Or will this be a race to the middle for two teams long since lapped by the Guardians? Time will tell, but needless to say if the Twins plan on heading to the playoffs, mid-September in Chicago needs to be victorious. For a more detailed description of the ballpark, check out the summary of Road Trip #3 (linked below). It’s a weekend series, so will there be a Bears game in town? Fall brings potential college football road tripping as well, so keep your eyes on the schedules as they get released. Mitchell, SD, to Guaranteed Rate Field gates is 645 miles. Chicago to Cincinnati is only 292 miles, so this is a possible driving trip. Odds are I’m going to skip Chicago, however, and fly straight to the last three games of this road trip. Sept. 18-20 @ Cincinnati Reds (3 games) Great American Ball Park - 2022 attendance was 1,395,770 (ranked 13th out of 15 NL teams, 24th overall MLB) Home to baseball’s oldest franchise (going strong since 1882!), Great American Ball Park celebrates its 20th year of hosting the Reds in 2023. With a list of legendary players behind it, the team boasts a history of success, and has a Hall of Fame of its own to prove it. Like many teams, however, that history seems to stop in the 90’s. Built on the shores of the Ohio River, Great American Ball Park offers contemporary fans a baseball specific venue with waterfront views and quirky vibes. The higher up you sit, the better the view of both game and area. With wide concourses, and five levels of seating, finding a place to enjoy the game shouldn’t be an issue. When in town, cultural highlights include the National Underground Railroad Freedom Center and the Cincinnati Art Museum. Findlay Market’s beer gardens open on gameday, and riverboat cruises offer a unique way to spend the time between games. Some of the most recent Twins vs. Reds moments involve the past few years of trades. Who is getting the better end of these deals, as the Twins continue to flip prospects for starting pitching? Hopefully this series provides ample opportunity to see how Sonny Gray and Tyler Mahle are prepping for the playoffs, as opposed to watching Spencer Steer crank baseballs into the Ohio River. Increased interleague play over the next several seasons will give Twins fans a chance to evaluate these deals in tangible games, which raises interesting questions to the future of trades in MLB. Hiding players in the other league no longer applies. Home again, home again is 919 miles. As stated earlier, plane is the name of the game for this mid-week series. Almost done… one more to go! Now it's your turn to plan! If you have been to Guaranteed Rate Field or Great American Ball Park, please post your list of "best seats" and "must sees." Anyone else planning on going to these series? Grace and peace Twins Territory! Thanks for the help! PREVIOUS 2023 TWINS' ROAD TRIP GUIDES Trip #1 Kansas City & Miami (3/30-4/5) Trip #2 New York & Boston (4/13-4/20) Trip #3 Chicago & Cleveland (5/2-5/7) Trip #4 I love LA!? Dodgers & Angels (5/15-5/21) Trip #5 Houston, We have a Correa! (May 29-31) Trip #6 Tampa to Toronto (6/6-6/11) Trip #7 Detroit to Atlanta to Baltimore (6/23-7/2) Trip #8 West Coast Bound Again! Oakland/Seattle (7/14-7/20) Trip #9 Kansas City & St. Louis (7/28-8/3 Trip #10 Detroit & Philadelphia (8/7-8/13) Trip #11 Milwaukee (8/22-8/23) Trip #12 Texas & Cleveland (9/1-9/6) View full article

The 12th road trip of the 2023 Twins season takes a mammoth triangular trek through the middle of the county via Texas and Cleveland. Because, why not try to finish the season covering almost 3000 miles in 6 days. It’s time to start the playoff push against the Rangers and Guardians! Globe Life Field. Progressive Field. Let’s begin… Image courtesy of David Richard-USA TODAY Sports (photo of John Adams who passed away last week) Sept. 1-3 @ Texas Rangers (3 games) Globe Life Field - 2022 attendance was 2,011,381 (ranked 7th out of 15 AL teams, 18th in all MLB) Texas exists as an outlier in the baseball universe. Even Moon’s Baseball Road Trips doesn’t know what to do with it. A trip to a Rangers game gets lumped in with a “heartland” road trip which starts at Target Field of all places. This trip follows an off-day, so no such luck for me. Globe Life Field opened to empty seats in 2020 thanks to the Covid pandemic. The seats didn’t necessarily fill up for mediocre baseball in 2022 either. Continued aggressive spending and a state-of-the-art stadium hope to propel the Rangers to better days ahead in 2023. The retractable roof at the new ballpark offers 71-degree days when the world outside is boiling in Arlington. The trend towards “entertainment district” stadium usage continues here, as teams seek to maximize fan spending for blocks in all directions. While in the entertainment district you can go to Six Flags, a waterpark, AT&T Stadium, and a mall. What you can’t find is a downtown vibe (this may be a positive to some fans) or easy public transit. The Rangers are recent entries into the MLB history books, but they have a unique tie to the Twins. In 1972, the Washington Senators found a new home (sound familiar?) in Arlington, Texas. Until then, the Dallas-Fort Worth area only hosted minor-league experiences. Some have argued that they’ve mostly only hosted minor-league experiences since then too. Two American League pennants, Nolan Ryan and Pudge Rodriguez, Nelson Cruz’s prime, and absolutely no Twins rivalry highlights that I could think of. It will be interesting to see if the Rangers are actually playing for something by the time the Twins come to town, or if we will be seeing their Triple-A team. This is a marathon trip, but these daily sprints will matter as September gets started. 12.5 hours and 820 miles from my front door to Globe Life Field. Cleveland follows with no off-day in between. I know its difficult to line up all of the games for all of the teams, but this seems excessively trying for a team hoping to be a part of a playoff push. Earlier in the season there was a three-day solo trip to Houston; can’t they be paired together? Whining won’t get me any closer to the next series though, its time to hop a plane for Cleveland. Sept. 4-6 @ Cleveland Guardians (3 games) Progressive Field – 35,401 - 2022 attendance was 1,295,869 (ranked 12th out of 15 AL parks, 25th overall MLB) Check out road trip #3 for a more extensive review of Progressive Field. For now, let’s just name the fact that the Central Division title most likely will come down to the Twins work against the Guardians. The Twins only have two series against the central in the last four weeks of the season, and both are on the road. Whether or not this unique scheduling quirk benefits the team remains to be seen, but coming off of last season’s final trip to Cleveland, we can’t have a repeat of that collapse at Progressive. 1,200 miles from Arlington to Cleveland, and less than 24 hours to get there. Again, the Twins were given no favors to set them up for this crucial divisional series. If the Twins can take four out of six, the remaining 980 miles home won’t seem so far. Go 1-5, and September could be setting up for yet another late-season disappointment. Now it's your turn to plan! If you have been to Globe Life Field or Progressive Field, please post your list of "best seats" and "must sees." Anyone else planning on going to these series? Grace and peace Twins Territory! Thanks for the help! View full article

Truth. I find myself making flight plans for getaway days, and thinking...what if there is a rain delay? The team can change their charter flight time...I don't think my airlines care :) But I also am a show up 90 minutes early guy...so we shall see how that works in reality.

That's what I was starting to wonder, if we can't just use my blog throughout the season to be an unofficial fan caravan site. We generally stick out in a road stadium anyway, but I think it would be a great way to build some community. Keep your eyes out for info closer to the season's start!