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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    Surely lacking some organizational plan along with reasonable health from anticipated contributors. Tampa & Milwaukee & Cleveland are fabulous examples of what very shrewd FO/organization people can get done with less $$ resources. The KEY is they have discipline, a consistent philosophy, and a PLAN to operate within certain budget limits/goals. Minnesota spent $125M in ‘21 - $141M in ‘22 - $158M in ‘23 - $127M in ‘24 - $137M in ‘25 - $115M in ‘26 (after $$ adds from deadline trades)………the last 3 seasons have seen significant drops in spending w/o having this as a plan. They were averaging 5-7% payroll increase for a few years through ‘22…. ‘23 was the high & Team was in the playoffs. ‘25 & ‘26 spending were “planned on” in November/December shooting from the hip as compared to Tampa or Milwaukee or Cleveland. Of this past season’s spending $22M were paid to Lopez w/o any contribution on the mound……….$10M were paid against Correa’s salary in Houston. That’s $83M paid out for the players on the field through most of ‘26. No FO is going to succeed with this type of ownership behavior!
  2. JD-TWINS
    Not necessarily in 100% agreement but I did notice that you didn’t mention the guy I think is Most Overhyped - Emma Rodriguez. I would not feel bad at all if he was not on the roster to start & beyond ‘27. Morris looked great for a couple months & not so great on either side of those 2 months. 1 inning at a time is definitely his role. Pitch mix & 4-seam control are the things he & most other pitchers in the game need to refine. Abel threw 13 scoreless over his last 2 starts - he’s only thrown 59 MLB innings, so if healthy, I like him to be part of the mix going forward. Certainly not very established, as you point out. Morris - Hoffman - Gomez - Sands - Matthews - Ober - Festa - Parades - Acton are all Right Handers competing for PEN in ‘27……probably missed a couple? Banda - Funderburk - Rojas & ?? from Left side in PEN …,,….. could maybe make an argument by next July that 2-3 of these 12 guys could be part of the core going forward. Lopez - Ryan - Bradley - Prielipp - Abel - Kremer seems to be a group that “could” get it done but certainly not overwhelming for opponents……….Prielipp hasn’t pitched enough, with his tenuous health history, for me to think he’s part of the Core but he certainly made some steps forward - seemed much more comfortable over last handful of starts.
  3. JD-TWINS
    From May 1, until Banda got hurt at end of June, his ERA was 1.35 over 23 appearances. Sands hardly pitched all year & was expected to at least be a Top 4 guy from the PEN. Festa was a depth guy for rotation, then probably was to become what was Travis Adam’s spot…….longer relief. Abel gave up 0 runs over 13 innings in his last 2 starts. Festa is 25 & Abel is 24, so their “career stats”, IMO, aren’t really that significant. Team had to absorb the loss of Lopez as well, just because it happened at the beginning of Spring Training doesn’t mean that he doesn’t need to be replaced with depth that’s in place. …….then 2 more probable starters……..then Ober & then Ryan. The relievers aren’t exactly dominant guys but were counted on ……… losing 3 starters isn’t a typical occurrence for what ultimately becomes “a good Team” near the end of the season.
  4. JD-TWINS
    No offense but that’s bologna - Festa was a fringe rotation candidate ……. Abel had 2 very solid outings in a row and looked like an effective #4 starter going forward ……… Lopez was at the top of the Rotation. There are maybe 3 teams in the game that can absorb missing 470-520 innings from their rotation…….particularly when 1 guy is supposed to be your best……… Banda pitched to end of June this season and his last 2 of 3 months were solid. Woods Richardson going 0-7 with an ERA between 7.00-8.00 didn’t help either……..the guy just collapsed.
  5. JD-TWINS
    Who is back from the position player standpoint? My preference blended with how the FO/organization behaves, usually. LEWIS - (.164 BA prior to being sent down) had a .271 BA since June 10th ………. 14 HR’s in 124 games ……. 15 stolen bases. With any sort of success and 140+ starts, he can easily be a 20/20 guy, with 25/25 not far above a realistic prognostication. LEE is at 3B - CULPEPPER is at SS - CLEMENS is at 2B & back up at 1B & corner OF - LEWIS at 1B with some fill in duty at 2B………….. KEASCHALL in LF due to lack of arm - BUXTON is in CF - JENKINS is in RF ……….. Jeffers or someone they trade for will start ……. Larnach at LH platoon DH …….. w/Keaschall & Buxton from the RH side. E-Rod & Martin are depth OF with Clemens occasionally. Caratini is depth behind the plate. 1 spot still open …….. seems it’s a depth guy in IF. Not much changing from the end of ‘26 options. IMO, not many needed. Pitching must greatly improve!!! Spend $$ on 3 arms not currently in team’s future control. Arms obtained in trade or via Free Agency. CATCHER is the wildcard roster hole that needs to be plugged!
  6. JD-TWINS
    Estimating or predicting Wins for a SEASON is silly since there are way too many variables in play …….. i.e. Wallner’s zero to negative contribution - SWR was equally as bad as Wallner from a negative contribution standpoint - Banda/Sands/Lopez/Festa/Abel all missed SIGNIFICANT time …… Ryan MISSED a number of weeks…….. Lee was terrible as a SS, defensively ……. Lewis was mediocre over the entirety of the year …….. Buxton, once again, played less than 100 games. Culpepper - Jenkins got hurt and weren’t ready to help in August - Rodriguez slid into first base and needed thumb surgery, he too wasn’t ready in August. Stuff is going to happen to every Team - understood. Going to win some you probably shouldn’t and lose some that were squarely in your grasp. For this Team to Win 76 games, while blowing at least 20 other solid Win Opportunities………it did better than I would have expected. IF most of the things that happened, with injuries or unexpected poor performance from a few, the Team had a real shot at 88-90 Wins.
  7. JD-TWINS
    2024 & 2026 stats averaged (he’s an above average platoon bat) & it shows me why he should be kept through arbitration as the LH platoon DH ……… Keaschall & Buxton from the right side as probable DH candidates. They pay Victor Caratini $7M this year and he’ll cost $9M in ‘27 because he’ll get an additional $2M for his buyout….. paying Larnach $7M to be an effective DH against 73% of starters (RH pitchers) is a simple YES going forward. 2024/2026 blended: (he faced 118 AB’s v. lefties in ‘25 & it crushed his stats) .264 BA - .345 OBP - .435 Slug% - 14 HR/year with less than 400 AB’s ………..OPS of .780 - OPS+ of 116 & 121 respectively. As a platoon DH, what the hell is wrong with Trevor Larnach in ‘27? The TEAM spend was $106 M in ‘26 ……… can’t be anywhere near that low in ‘27!! He’s worth an additional $2.5M and Bell’s $7M will be freed up……… logically, it seems like a straightforward move for ‘27.
  8. JD-TWINS
    My assumption is there is the pull to keep Kremer as a depth option & am assuming he’s out of options. ……….go through a bargain arbitration for him ……… if he has a decent Spring he’ll be in the rotation early …….. certainly a probable trade piece as the season moves forward.
  9. JD-TWINS
    Nobody suggested wild spending - nothing even close to 50% of what the Dodgers or Mets spend! How about what the Twins spent in 2023? ……. $154M …… that’s the minimum they should be at in ‘26, regardless of who they drafted. Wallner has been in AAA for parts of 3 of the last 4 years, “to straighten himself out” ….. last year he was hurt twice & didn’t get sent down. He IS a big disappointment………. he had over 140 OPS+ in ‘24 ……….. is that a poor draft pick or just a guy that didn’t/hasn’t applied himself to get the most out of his ability? Lewis has had his knee reconstructed twice and has missed 3 chances complete seasons due to Covid and his knee issues. He’s had other soft tissue leg injuries & missed significant stretches. He seems to have settled in defensively since he made the move to 1B ……. his offense has been League average since his stint in St. Paul …………. does the responsibility that he’s missed essentially 4 seasons since being drafted in 2017 fall on the GM that drafted him? Emma has been highly touted for 3 years. He has averaged 60 games per season for the last 6 seasons ……… he slid head first into 1st base this year and needed thumb surgery. Is his ignorance/recklessness on the GM? Larnach is a platoon bat and highly successful when used that way! He should be the DH in ‘27 from the left side v. RH pitching (73% of pitchers in MLB) 2024 (full season) strict platoon …. .259BA - 116 OPS+ - .338 OBP - .434 slug% - .771OPS - 15HR - 52 RBI ………good numbers! 2026 (as of this morning) strict platoon … .266 BA - 116 OPS+ - .348 OBP - .424 slug% - .772 OPS - 12HR - 47 RBI ……. good numbers! What is wrong with this guy? He was hurt for parts of 3 years & in ‘24 he came around & had a decent season. In ‘25 organization decided to give him 118 AB’s against LH pitching & his lack of success knocked his numbers down that season. This year he’s essentially identical to ‘24. Solid. I don’t understand the Larnach hate? Kiriloff was a guy highly thought of after being drafted - hurt, hurt, & hurt again & then retired….. the GM should have a crystal ball? Btw, same FO drafted Culpepper & Jenkins.
  10. JD-TWINS
    2016 Indians did well with a modest payroll, getting to the World Series. 1997 Indians did well with a roster littered with high paid players, getting to the World Series.
  11. JD-TWINS
    However, I did conveniently mention “historical operating practices” regarding payroll totals! They INCREASED payroll year over year, consistently. Period. Sure Cleveland, for the past 10 plus years have not spent a bunch of $$. They do it well!! My point is not that it’s impossible to spend less & be successful - my point is you need a PLAN as an organization. In none of the “……3 successful organizations that are thrifty” did ownership drop spending 12%-19%-32% from a baseline amount, 3 years prior. Pirates - Reds - Seattle - White Sox - K.C. etc. are also teams I didn’t mention that would/could be a hell of a lot better, year to year, if they spent $$ at a higher rate…….. Reds sign Hunter Green ……hurt a bunch (just like Pablo & Byron) …… they paid Eugenio Suarez “off the scrap heap” & he is not good - they signed Lowe for 1st base platoon for low$ - with OK success…… everyone is “trying to be smart, within a budget”. Sometimes it works but often it doesn’t - not just a Derek Falvey issue……….Is it the Pirates GM’s problem Paul Skenes got knocked around for 3 months? You sign guys to live up to their baseball cards and often it just doesn’t happen - players play!
  12. JD-TWINS
    The OWNERSHIP approved a $33M/yr SS and the next year (after increasing salaries annually, for a decade 5-10%/year) reduced payroll from $154 to $135 …….12.5% decrease (after signing Correa!) ………. then they reduced payroll in ‘25 to $125M - 19% less than ‘23 ……… in ‘26 the payroll is $106M - 32% reduction from ‘23. With 4% annual (modest!) increases from ‘23 the Payroll for ‘27 would be $180M for the season……..fans “are hoping they will spend $120M…..” I don’t get the disassociation between the slashes in “payroll approach” & the lack of talent/depth to be highly competitive - I guess I’m clueless.
  13. JD-TWINS
    It’s a Sh….boatload about money!! Dodgers are spending $360 with $60 deferred……. Braves - Phillies - Cubs - Yankees - Red Sox ……… the Padres cut back to $220M for ‘26 …….money has little to do with year over year success though…… come on! I understand TV deals & 2-3X market size relative to TWINS…….. but cutting over a 1/3 of player salaries in 3 years is B.S. There are 2 consistent low spending outliers in the game …… Tampa & Milwaukee……… Marlins make a 2 month splash one in a while. Again, if it were 2032 and the TWINS hadn’t spent any money on payroll for the players since ‘23, then there would be room to bitch ……….. there’s been no plan! Nobody told Falvey when he extended Correa that the budget in ‘24 was going to be $135M & $125M in ‘25 & then $106M in ‘26 - do you agree with that???? ……….. was there a plan to increase roster spending 5-10% a year for a decade and then cut it by 35% over the following 3 years? The FO is plugging holes in a dam that’s been shot up by the Pohlad’s ineffectiveness as owners!
  14. JD-TWINS
    The flippin ownership spent $154M in ‘23 & $106M in ‘26………… until the past TWO SEASONS there has been no plan to spend at record low levels. The BREWERS & RAYS have had a plan in place and run their organizations with this approach as “the rule”………the comparison is the Yankees spending $150M less next year and then saying, “I don’t understand why they’ve regressed …… the RAYS can do it” The FO is not as competent as the Rays - the guys for last number of years in Milwaukee came from the Rays……they are exceptional!! IMO, cannot point out TWO organizations that have success with depressed payrolls for 20 years, to where the Twins have been in the last couple years …… WITHOUT A LONG-TERM PLAN to be a depressed spending organization.
  15. JD-TWINS
    I’m not a Pohlad’s ownership proponent …… Tom seems to have given himself a “plausible out” with his statement you share here. With $106M payroll in ‘26 with $10M going to Houston for Correa……..$22M going to Pablo Lopez ………$74M on the field for the season ……. sickening is the only way to describe the support from Ownership. That said …….. a number of things didn’t quite go according to plan. Pitching: Lopez out for season - Ober will be down 10 starts - Ryan will be down 8 starts - Abel started 3 games - Sim Richardson started 10 games & went 0-7 with a 7.74ERA & -1.3 WAR in first 2 months - Festa threw ZERO innings - those are just some of the issues…….. Sands ineffective/hurt - Banda started to shine over 7-8 weeks, then hurt, etc. Offense: Matt Wallner disappeared - Buxton played 93 games & maybe 75 that were healthy - Keaschall didn’t hit for first 10 weeks - Lewis was sent down - Jeffers breaks his hand & misses 8 weeks - Caratini & Bell are essentially feast or famine - Rodriguez & Jenkins were hurt for a loooong stretch, no support/depth that was expected at some point, etc., etc. Defense: Keaschall can’t play 2B - can’t play CF (understandable) - struggles a bit in RF - can’t throw at all!! Brooks Lee - complete bust at SS. I get that most/many here will say that these things happen and there should be depth in an organization. Very true. To me, the FO has very little culpability in this season’s results ………. without support from ownership this Team, entering Spring Training had a more than reasonable roster to compete/win the AL Central. However, with $106M spend ……… the depth is pretty difficult for any Player Personnel department to overcome…… at last with any realism for positive results!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Sands - Banda - Nance - Hoffman - Acton - Morris - Paredes - Guzman - Funderburk - Raya - ……….this is the starting point for the PEN in ‘27 at the end of September. Matthews - Ober - Rojas are possibilities for relief ………need to utilize talents at MLB, not at AAA. Lopez - Ryan - Abel/Kremer - Bradley - Prielipp are the probable top Rotation candidates. One or two signings (Minter like guys) for the PEN would really help depth & effectiveness. Currently 19 names for 13 roster spots.
  17. JD-TWINS
    Larnach in ‘26: .350 OBP ….. .265 BA …….. 11 HR with 420 PA’s ……. assuming Jeffers is gone, he has the 2nd highest OPS+ on the Team going into ‘27. Only Buxton is higher in ‘26 and he’s played 93 games & likely won’t play again. He made $4.5M this year and may make $7.5M (tops) in ‘27. He’s perfect platoon LH bat for DH (73% of pitchers are RH) and “can play corner OF if needed”……….LH Pinch-hitter off the bench as well…………$7.5M is nothing once Bell & Jeffers are gone………the Team needs to spend $135-$140M in ‘27 if Tom is serious about “being competitive”. Putting Roden ahead of Larnach is some twisted fantasy …….. anointing Emma is nuts (he’s averaged 60 games/year for 6 seasons) & if organization was sold on him he’d be on the roster right now! Keaschall - 114 OPS+ Clemens - 115 OPS+ Larnach - 116 OPS+ Buxton - 129 OPS+ Jeffers - 143 OPS+ Larnach & Keaschall/Buxton in platoon DH role in ‘27. As they say, you play to win the game, not to see what prospects might be able to do………..prove yourself at AAA and when called on force your way on to the roster. Getting a spot because the fans don’t think paying the 3rd or 4th best hitter on the roster $7M is a good idea, makes no sense. Keaschall - Buxton - Jenkins - Rodriguez - Gonzalez in OF for ‘27 with Larnach at DH.
  18. JD-TWINS
    Keeping Jeffers for a bridge or offering him an extension for 3 years makes sense. He can be traded in ‘28 or ‘29 if it makes sense……… he can DH ……… Trading Caratini, if Jeffers signs up would be a way for the Team to offset nearly all of Jeffer’s raise. Caratini makes $7M & has a $3M buyout for ‘28……..seems there’s no way they would keep him in ‘28 - therefore his salary is $10M owed while with the Team in ‘27…….Basically, Jeffers current salary + Caratini’s cost going forward = 80% of a QO for Jeffers……..should not hesitate. (I do think a Caratini trade would take another solid prospect from Twins OR they would have to pay some of the $10M he’d be owed)
  19. JD-TWINS
    I get your sentiment but it seems that with the draft capital spent this year, the Team is surely looking for two of those four to be competent, at a minimum………Nobody has “a catcher”, at least not until the post season. Lead Catchers are around 115 games per year…...that’s 35-40 for the 2nd guy………Team has 4 vying for 2 spots opening by ‘28, at the latest……….seems to me that one of the 3 behind Lackey is a probable trade piece after things sort out in ‘27.
  20. JD-TWINS
    I think he starts Tuesday with Prielipp coming in to start the 5th inning. Good usage of pitches for both of them. Prielipp could also Piggyback with Kremer as a solid combination. Joe’s gotta pitch well, not just work on his delivery & feel. 7 Series left ……. if they win all 7 series (no sweeps) they go 15-7………82-80 & squarely in the mix. ……. tonight is the first mountain to climb.🤞🤞
  21. JD-TWINS
    Ober .. 113 innings .. 4.37 ERA … 7-4 …..1.7 WAR …….21 starts Prielipp ..105 ins ...5.28 ERA …4-7 ….. -.2 WAR ……20 starts Gotta pump the brakes on handing Prielipp a rotation spot when/if all guys are healthy. Possibly having him pitch twice per week in 2-3 inning stints from the PEN could bring more value to the Club & more effectiveness from Prielipp? Makes no sense to waste his innings in St. Paul. Can’t imagine Ober & Kremer & Ryan are all on the Club, let alone in the Rotation to start the season …….somebody’s got to go. Rojas is also another possible/probable depth guy for the Rotation going forward.
  22. JD-TWINS
    To me, Minter was a “splash signing” …….10th year in MLB with a career 3.10 ERA. He makes $11M/year as a one inning specialist. I’d love to sign him for ‘28 as well ……… gotta spend some $$ on valuable pieces!
  23. JD-TWINS
    Diaw good enough to Catch at MLB level in ‘27? Spend on Jeffers (QO) - Minter - Larnach? ………. that’s $40M They have plenty of inexpensive youth……… Rodriguez - Gonzalez - Keaschall - Culpepper - Jenkins ……..Lee - Lewis - Clemens, all 3 total $11M? ………..8 guys for $16M! Not sure if they still owe Houston another $10M for Correa?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Rotation options w/o changes: Bradley - Matthews - Ryan - Kremer - Prielipp - Rojas - Abel - Lopez - Ober ($50M) PEN options w/o changes: Banda - Sands - Hoffman - Morris - Festa - Gomez - Funderburk - Anderson - Nance ……. I can’t take Adams seriously & Minter & Rogers are gone. ($28M) 18 guys currently at varying levels of health and effectiveness……….to me, absolutely should be able to get, at a minimum, 10 effective guys from this group to bring North in ‘27. Rodriguez - Gonzalez - Jenkins - Keaschall - Culpepper are all minimum guys ………. Lee - Lewis - Clemens - Jackson ($13M total) Buxton - Caratini cost $25M including Caratini’s ‘28 buyout. This group costs $106M ……… Tom can’t go forward with the “competitive slant” without spending another $35 - $40M! …… right? Seriously question, he has to add payroll and sign 3-4 other players at a minimum - right? Thoughts? Praying for some spending floor to be enacted for ‘27 or starting in ‘28!
  25. JD-TWINS
    Lackey isn’t Catching to start ‘27………’27 is “the future” he described. Why would they let Clemens go???
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