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JD-TWINS

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  1. Pretty sure, as hard as this is to say, Kepler is a better value. Kepler at $9 million with some potential power upside as well as 25-30 point uptick in BA without shift. Bellinger is making $17.5 million I believe, and has been down for 3 years with only “potential” for that $ number.
  2. Exactly - nothing positive coming back in a Kepler trade. Nobody’s trading for gold glove with 15 doubles & .225 avg. at $9 million!!! Completely agree on our “outfield depth”……Jake Cave, seems like a great guy and super effort guy, not an MLB hitter. He’s Kepler with less power & 30 points less batting average. Gone. Celestino is OK on defense, no power & .230 average and clueless on bases, not a member of a good team. Gone. Garlick looks like Harmon Killebrew playing outfield. Emergency outfielder. No offense Harm! We have Buxton at 100 games in CF - Gordon in LF with Larnach there when Gordon plays CF or 2B. Kirilof seems to be the 1B - DH - LF blend with outfield being last option. Walner is limited. With existing contract, Kepler is a necessary evil with some potential offensive upside with shift change.
  3. White Sox definitely view TWINS as a competitor! No trade of a proven bull pen stud within the Division. If Lopez bounces back to the only good 3.5 months of his career and if Alcala is healthy are 2 big IF’s. They’ll get a chance. Moran is MLB solid & should be given more opportunities this year while Megill has legit top tier stuff. If Megill could develop a cutter or change-up he’d be great. Need a legit pitching coach to get the most out of all 4 of these guys!
  4. Sox aren’t trading Liam Hendricks inside their own Division! Wish they would but it’s a no go. I agree that one guy at $9- $10 million or a couple at $6 million make sense for good BP depth but who are these pieces?? Paying a $2.5 million guy $6 million & getting excited because he’s new doesn’t work! How about hiring a top line pitching coach and working with Trevor Megill on a cutter or a change-up? He’d be devastating!!! Need a back end BP guy to help get to Durhan! I still like Maeda in the pen for first half of year to bridge games from middle of sixth to start of eighth! Let’s make sure he’s healthy AND plug a hole with our club. To get help & depth with Maeda in pen we need to sign a front end starter - to me - that should be our number one focus, ahead of SS & ahead of RP. The guy from Mets is best left, that’s affordable. Name starts with a B? Anyway, Rodon seems to be out of our league relative to $. PLAN: Starter from Mets, internal fix with Megill & Maeda in pen, SS from the Rockies for $8 million (placeholder) & Wilson Contreras for offensive punch for 100 games at catcher & 25 at DH……….Contreras & Rockies SS = Correa & our current catcher’s offensive output & it’s more affordable - leaves more $ for pitching!
  5. W/o the shift his defense in RF is of more importance on some small level. 10-12 hits due to no shift is 25 points or more on 400 AB’s. He needs to hit more doubles & that should be doable with previous power numbers (one year with LIVELY ball) & his speed. He’s an RBI guy by accident/good fortune, not because he’s clutch. Bat him 7th or 8th. 25 -30 points on his average, keep walking at a decent rate, 10 more doubles & his standard defense and the TWINS win! Not too much optimism from the FO to justify this thinking.
  6. Agreed - Correa could be a nice luxury but when trying to build a team through farm system, it doesn’t seem to make a lot of sense to block the guys we have 8 months to 2 years away at SS. I’m not drinking the Cool Aid on Lewis after a 2 week stint but we need to assume he’ll contribute somewhere. Optimism via Farm at SS should be high. There’s 2 more guys behind Lewis to fill SS. If they add Correa and still budget pitching adds - OK. That doesn’t seem likely for the budget! Need a front end starter! Need relief depth in the back end! …….Pagan “turning it around” is recipe for disaster. We could go get the free agent SS from Colorado for $7-$8 million/yr. for 1-2 years. This plugs short-term hole and leaves lots of flexibility for spending on pitching……….maybe room for catcher help that can help on offense as well. 4 contributors (SS $8M - SP $22M - RP $8M - C $15M) vs. $34 million/year for Correa & “not being able to afford others” has to make better sense!!!
  7. Top end defender…..can’t stand his significant drop in driving the ball though! Should hit 30 points higher with elimination of the Shift - 10 more hits through the year. No reason he shouldn’t hit 15-20 HR with some focus to do so. That said, his ability to back up Buxton if needed, his elite ability in right field(taken for granted), his potential upside without the shift makes him a guy we have to keep until we know Larnach &/or Kirilof can stay healthy through the first half. Batting him 7th or 8th is fine. Trying to push him into top 5 slots just adds pressure and overestimates his probable production. Keeping/having 6-7 guys that can hit in front of him is obviously key ……..with that goal in mind, discussion of trading the guy that won the batting title, per the winter meetings, makes no sense to me!!
  8. Can’t release Kepler, he’s part of the crowd…….can only carry 5 guys for OF on big club. Celistino’s defense is no better than Gordon - his bat is mediocre……brutal base runner. Buxton - Larnach - Gordon - Kepler - Wallner - Garlick - Kirriloff constitute OF options. Gordon can play 90% of his starts in OF & still be rostered as IF depth. Arraez is IF depth with Kirriloff at 1st when Arraez isn’t there. Wallner can be DH & OF depth. Need a SS or a 3rd baseman with Farmer filling the other spot. With 2 catchers, this gets us to 12 guys……13 pitchers. Contreras & Celestino are in St. Paul or pieces in a trade.
  9. Exactly!! Gordon “going back to the bench” talk is nuts. In my opinion he plays in left field every day there is a right handed pitcher and spells Buxton whenever he DH’s or rests. 40 plus starts in CF! Roughly 90 starts in LF & 6-8 games at 2nd base. Garlick or some fresh face right handed hitting outfielder in LF 50-60 starts. Celestino needs to add about 10lbs of muscle mass to be considered a real option at the plate. Outfielder that hits like a light hitting infielder. He’s an OK option defensively in CF & the worst baserunner on the roster. I don’t see him making big club.
  10. Completely agreed!! We need depth in the pen to help us get a psyche that our pen will hold leads/opportunities, Maeda can help make that happen, vs. crossing our fingers for Lopez! Maeda can stretch out in June/July if needed. Gotta get a front line starter to go with the 4-5 guys we have coming back. Gray-Mahle-Ryan-Ober are a fairly solid 2-5. Maeda supplementing starters in August, if needed, works.
  11. The guy deserves to be paid & the Twins making him a starter so they don’t feel guilty doesn’t make sense. Gotta settle the finances so he’s not pissed off all year but he should start in the pen to see what that can do for the Team. If they need to stretch him out they could over June/July with Archer approach to pitches. Need him healthy & contributing. Seems a slow path back and filling a need makes sense.
  12. Your roster, massaged a bit: Farmer at SS, cause we need somebody at SS, for $6 million ……Urshella gone (saves $3 million) & Miranda to 3rd……Kirriloff to DH & Gordon to LF. Larnach replaces Celestino. 12 field guys & 13 on Staff: Maeda to Pen with another experienced depth signee for $6-9 million & Megill or Moran fills out the Pen. Add front End starter to get to 13 pitchers and to consume most of the excess payroll $.
  13. 35 years old. Gutsy competitor who battled for Cy Young (in a Covid shortened 65 game schedule) in 2020. He has BullPen experience and may not have the durability to start again. We need QUALITY in the Pen & he would be a great add……I’d be psyched to see him pitch twice a week as a solid bridge to our 8th & 9th innings guys! New sign starter a must - Gray - Mahle - Louie - Ryan - Ober………That’s 6 guys w/o Maeda. I say we go with these guys and see how health and effectiveness are going through mid-June and if Maeda is healthy enough to stretch out and is needed in rotation for 2nd half then we have that option. It’s not his choice! He’s getting paid $9 million to help the team wherever needed & I think he would be happy doing just that!!
  14. Agreed - SS isn’t the magic answer. What was Greg Gagne’s OPS?? Nobody cares or cared. I assume Farmer is comparable at the plate. Front End Starter!! Back End depth!! If Gilberto plays on the Twins MLB roster again somebody should get fired for lack of prior upgrade! 5 left handed options ahead of him as well as Buxton as we stand today……plus we resigned Garlick.
  15. AGREED!! Don’t sweat SS like it’s an impossible riddle. Farmer as a bridge or a surprise solution…..use the $ for Front End Starter & Back End depth!!! Simple.
  16. I love these Metrics for relievers! The success % is subjective but I think 80% would denote “good”…….betwee 74-79% adequate. Below 74%, we need to probably move on. COMMAND is the pitching key and stuff (velocity & spin rate) don’t override command. Pagan has good stuff…..his new pitch at 81mph & more vertical tilt may be his savior? I just have no patience left nor potential confidence when strike outs at 38% clip are overshadowed by HR’s at TOO HIGH % clip. Just doesn’t seem to have a clue OR the necessary command! Would rather spend time developing a cutter or chang-up with Megill and giving him another year at $700K! With the 3 batter minimum for relievers, the% rate of success is even more important. Can’t fool the numbers (%) by just facing one batter per appearance.
  17. He’s essentially an offensive even trade with Urshella but a better option at short…….plus the $3.5 million saved that hopefully we spend on the staff. He is a bridge to Lewis or he’s there all year…….can play 3rd as well. At 32, getting out of Cincinnati & having a chance to be in playoffs may produce a spark as well! I live here & watching the Reds is tough, can’t imagine playing everyday as a reasonably talented professional. I liked Urshella but every $1.5-3.5 million we can save that can be used for a front end starter or relief depth is worth a shot!! Hopefully, there’s a plan.
  18. Gray’s complaints about how he was used are empty & ridiculous. He’s been hurt part of nearly every year for 8 years. Hip along with various arm issues make him the poster child for limited innings. He’s got to hear that with whatever club he’s with, not just pitching for Rocco! I live & watched in Cincinnati, same with TWINS, 7-10 weeks pitching then 2-3 weeks on IL. That said, I like him - his competitive streak - his stuff!! I think offering $45 million for 3 years would be a nice offer for him & reasonable for the Twins. He would be taking on great risk not to extend prior to this year at that $ level.
  19. Not just for weitz41 but for all the doubters: Gordon played CF when Buxton couldn’t play during first half and played LF almost every other day. Why is he not a starter based on his offense in 2022? His offense matches Rosario’s less 8-10 homers. Young, can run, SS arm…….don’t understand why he’s not penciled in for LF everyday & occasionally in CF or 2B? Hit .270 last season with 40 double potential! My opinion, just because you can play multiple positions shouldn’t relegate you to playing 3 times a week at varying spots. If Larnach/Kirriloff can hit with some pop & hit .275 or better then carve a spot in right or left and move Gordon around where/when needed. Don’t see the benefit in not continuing the opportunity for Gordon from the jump in 2023 based on real 2022 results!!
  20. PITCHING COACH, with skills is key! If guys could be “fixed” there would be no pitchers struggling with good stuff - not real to fix guys. Guys fix themselves or they wash out. Can’t fix command in the zone with coaching - it’s execution. Koufax was mediocre to bad for six years & then dominant for 5-6 yrs by finding the right release point that gave him some control - then increased confidence, and so on. Good coach can help tweak - maybe work on a guy’s head a bit? Lopez could be an innings eater in 5th-7th with a 3.5 ERA, worst case……in my opinion. He threw in 44 games prior to All-Star break last year with 19 saves. With that many appearances (success) maybe he can only get 3 outs or less per outing? Something changed - I think it’s between his ears - hopefully a pitching coach can sort it out!!
  21. Boxberger sounds like a low value add with a 25% meltdown rate. We can get that success rate with a rookie or some other $750,000 guy. Moore is old and, as mentioned, we probably don’t need another lefty at this point. Montero could be a nice experienced arm to set-up for Duran! $6 million/year for 2 years. Number of saves in 2022 along with other success has to be weighed with his attachment to 106 win team - gotta have opportunities to get these stats!!! NEED a pitching coach with track record!! Can somebody work with Trevor Megill to develop either a cutter or a change-up?? WAY too good of stuff for the results seen to date! Plus curveball & plus fastball with no other options and not enough fastball command. Needs to be coached up and he could be as effective as Duran! We need to add a top end reliever…….Trevor May nor Taylor Roger’s fit that role.
  22. He’s 24 & this was his first year as a reliever. They have fallen back and it worked out as well as anyone could imagine in his rookie year in the SHOW!! They moved him for health reasons - he stayed strong. Opportunity to be one of top 5 relievers in the game for next 10 plus years.
  23. We’re talking about a guy who had mediocre success as a starter with arm problems. He was highly effective as a reliever in a set-up role generally. His WAR, I assume, was higher than any of our starters. He should be moved to closer this year & he’ll have even more value. He’s used to seal wins as a reliever and as a starter, he may pitch well and with potential spotty support as a starter he may go 11-13 like Nola did this year. Biggest deal, in my opinion, is keeping a valuable asset healthy & productive……..,just like DHing Buxton to keep him in the line-up.
  24. Debating who’s better is opinion based on some level for sure……Valdez is 4 years younger than Wheeler, so in my opinion he has a better upside. Valdez had like 20 quality starts or more this year. I’d love to have Nola or Wheeler in MN, I just don’t view them like I view Cole or some others mentioned. The root here was should Duran start or relieve and in my opinion he’s more valuable, with much less health risk out of the pen. Better value in each appearance out of pen/chance to seal a win and probably 15 more appearances out of pen vs. starter. Team better served from pen than trying to create an ACE due to exceptional stuff.
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