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JD-TWINS

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  1. JD-TWINS
    IF Kiriloff can’t go the obvious choice is Gallo at 1B………I’m curious to see if they consider Gordon there? He can play ground balls and lets Gallo stay in corner OF spot. No matter what happens at 1B Farmer has to play 20 - 25 games each at 2B & SS. Rest! He rests Miranda another 25 games at 3B. Also, due to his solid splits v. LH pitching, he’ll start those games at 3B while bumping Miranda to 1B. That’s 100 plus starts for Farmer if the other 3 guys stay healthy. Larnach is the LH hitting DH…..80 games. 50 games in LF. I refuse to think they will play Taylor ahead of Gordon in CF for more than a handful of games v. RH pitching. Gordon is solid & Taylor weak v. RH pitching. Taylor will start in CF v. LH pitching…..that’s 30 games or so. Taylor is late inning PH v. lefty relievers - late inning base runner - late inning D replacement ……….. INSURANCE FOR INJURIES. Buxton, if healthy, plays CF 80 games - DH 50 games. Gordon in CF for 50 games & LF for 80 games. Gallo 30 games in LF - 50 games in RF - 30 games at 1B - 10 games at DH. Kepler 110 games in RF
  2. JD-TWINS
    I had Ryan - CC - Polanco - Gray - Buxton…….I’m pissed I didn’t put Gordon on this list!! Gordon - gained 25 lb last year and could work out for first time in pro career. Last year was his 2nd in the SHOW & he got 405 AB’s playing wherever they needed him. No previous OF experience & he started 98 games out there. 28 doubles - 41 XBH …..50 RBI in the bottom half of line-up. Going to be WAY stronger this spring. He has to play against RH pitching!! 80% of the starters are RH. 80 games in LF - 50 games in CF - 575 AB’s & he hits 40 doubles this year!
  3. JD-TWINS
    They moved Urshela to open the spot for Miranda. 2000 innings at 3B & best player in minor leagues in ‘21. Period. Farmer was insurance and a cheap/effective option if CC was gone & a perfectly good placeholder for Lewis/Lee. Maybe all of ‘23 & into ‘24. Now we have a former starting SS as our utility guy. Excellent splits v. LH pitching. He’ll be at 3B for the LH pitchers & Miranda will shift to 1B. Taylor is a depth move. Can’t have Celestino in the SHOW! Buxton has played more than 100 games ONCE in 7 years. I’m a huge Gordon fan & am as mystified as anyone about the Gallo signing. $ reasons & his lack of ability to put ball in play coupled were what made up a bad signing IMO. My assumption was Kepler would be gone and the two salaries would wash. Not yet. If Kirilof is out again Gallo will pick up most of the starts at 1B & Gordon will play 140 games in OF. Gordon will get plenty of playing time! Can’t play Taylor in front of him v. RH pitching! 80% plus guys are RH so that’s a bunch of starts!! The guy had 28 doubles in 405 AB’s …….it was his first season with health in his pro ball career. He gained 25 lb in 6 months and is getting stronger & stronger. Don’t cheer for Taylor or Gallo this year and you should be good in ‘24. Go TWINS!
  4. JD-TWINS
    .366 BA with RISP in ‘22 .314 BA over 4 yr career (hit .291 in ‘21 - come on) Played 144 games last year 10 other guys in MLB hit .300 or better in ‘22 - seemed the highest BA in a group that big is special
  5. JD-TWINS
    There is no trade of Kepler for a stud relief pitcher. TD writers have covered nearly any practical trade for Kepler & we need to send additional prospects in any assumed scenarios. I too assumed Kepler trade immediately after the Gallo signing. Still did until Monday……. now, after really considering Kirilof - Buxton - Kepler - Larnach’s injury history’s, it actually makes sense to go into the year with Gallo able to play either corner OF spot & 1B. Kepler able to play RF daily. Buxton playing 80-90 games in centerfield…..Taylor/Gordon splitting the other 70 games in CF. Gallo - Gordon - Larnach splitting time in LF. Max is much better in a need for depth if a couple guys get hurt than having to dip to Celestino or Walner from St Paul. Either he or Joey has to go to a “team in need” at the trade deadline. Lewis & other options available by then.
  6. JD-TWINS
    The Urshela deal was done first. Trading him & shedding $10 million and replacing him with the Farmer trade, at half the money makes perfect sense to me. Farmer was the Reds starting shortstop & is now our Utility guy. Miranda is taking Gio’s spot at 3rd……Farmer might be there 50 games this year so Miranda can play 1B v. LH pitching & to get some rest. Farmer will get 25 games at 2B & 20 games at SS. Taylor is a one year value guy! He will start in 30 games against LH starters ………..maybe another 30 Against RH starter, not as effective but necessary. Taylor will pinch hit against lefty relievers & pinch run occasionally & late inning defensive replacement often! Marlins really. wanted Arráez & we pushed to maximize return!
  7. JD-TWINS
    By the trade deadline we may be psyched about Max hitting .260 & his 55 RBI & 12 HR……..& ready to trade Gallo to anyone that will take him!!! Joey is definitely a glove first guy. Fingers crossed!
  8. JD-TWINS
    DEPTH from FA market with an experienced reliever ties a nice bow on the off season! If Falvey said that about our relief corps w/o actually trying to mislead competitors, it makes me sad! Chafin - Hand - Fulmer…….maybe another 1 or 2 options. As I mentioned in the TD article on how “Fulmer is regressing on spin rates & ball movement,” not that serious. All these guys are worthwhile because they won’t blink if they walk the first guy they face in the 7th or 8th. Been there!!! Pagan - López give me zero confidence in tight situations - the very nature of pitching the last 2-3 innings in a game. The stuff between there ears is nearly as important as the stuff coming out of your hand! None of options above are perfect, but experience in the Pen is difficult to quantify. IF we sign a FA arm & move Maeda to the Pen for long work, we displace the 2 guys nobody trusts, Pagan & López. BIG TRADE……Pagan - J. Lopez - Kepler Celestino……….for anybody!!!
  9. JD-TWINS
    Great bargain OR they are waiting to announce, but already have a deal in principle with, a FA reliever??? Waiting for Roster spot.
  10. JD-TWINS
    Wow! That was my reaction when Gallo was signed. I had no hard feelings relative to our desire or ability to sign Correa……..I did think it limited our ability to sign a Starter or Reliever from FA market. I do believe hat not spending on a reliever at this point is due to budget & the fact that we are paying both Kepler & Gallo. Your point of some base of around 5 million with over half, 6 million, in some incentive goal structure……..makes way better sense! Going into Spring Training with our potential mix of guys in OF & their health histories, Buxton - Larnach - Kepler - Kirilof ………it now seems to make a lot of sense for REAL depth to have both Kepler & Gallo around as well as Gordon. If they trade Max or Joey at some point in July due to successes of others that’s fine. I can’t watch the AAA subs we were starting daily last year because our front line guys were hurt. Hopefully, Gallo will perform at a level that is distinguishably better than Jake Cave & Gilberto Celestino. Both with advanced metrics & the eye test!
  11. JD-TWINS
    Just information: Gallo career stats Gordon 2022 stats OBP. .325. .316 Slg %. .469 .427 OPS. .794 .743 OPS,+ 109. 113 SO/100PA 40. 24 BB/100PA 15 5 HIT/100PA. 17. 25 Hopefully, Kirilof is ready to go this year……a new thought thought to maximize Defense if he’s not………instead of playing Gallo at 1B, which was my assumption based on experience - with Gordon in left, how about Gallo in LF 110 games & Larnach for maybe 50 & Gordon at 1B??? New twist…….good range at 1B……….shouldn’t be any more of a stretch than Arraez, right?
  12. JD-TWINS
    2022 review: Gallo Gordon AB’s. 350. 405 BB’s. 56. 19 BA. .160. .272 Hits. 56. 110 HR. 19. 9 3B. 2. 4 2B. 8. 28 Tot Base 125 173 OBP. .280. .316 RBI. 47. 50 I get this isn’t fair on all levels to Gallo looking at just 1 year. I think saying Nick Gordon “isn’t any good” must be ill informed or emotional or just unfair as well. However, this is closest to a full year Gordon has & it was his first healthy year after years of dealing with an intestinal issue. Even with a Gold Glove in OF, Gallo doesn’t show up as a better player at age 29 vs. Gordon at 25. Better value at $11 million vs. $.70 million??? Many counterpoints in this string as to why we should give Gallo the benefit of the doubt - OK, granted - how about giving Nick Gordon the benefit of the doubt?
  13. JD-TWINS
    Gordon has played parts of 2 years. From January to June last year he gained 25 lbs and played wherever during his first healthy year in the majors. Last year in approximately 100 starts in OF & a dozen in the IF, he had 405 AB’s with 9HR & 28 doubles. He didn’t get enough at bats to strike out 200 plus times - a feat Gallo has accomplished twice. 190 plus K’s in another year. Gallo’s .986 OPS in one season, that is the outlier and it props up 2-3 other bad years. 103 hits & 206 strikeouts do not a good year make, in my opinion. Am a sixty year old sports fan - well aware of $11 million value to a team that spends $145 million/year. Not worried about the Pohlad’s going broke. His salary, at $11 million per year, is the 3rd highest behind Correa & Buxton on the everyday player roster. It’s not a big number for Cohen & the Mets but it certainly is for the TWINS. If we could, I’d release Gallo tomorrow & spend it on Relief Pitching talent. I don’t hate the guy - for the 3rd time, I like his defensive skills & position flexibility!! Certainly, I respect his power & if he hits his career average with 25 plus HR and plays D as well as we all expect in 125-130 games all is good. I do know that at some point this year you’ll be pulling your hair out when he strikes out for the 3rd time in a game - only normal reaction!
  14. JD-TWINS
    Vs. Lefties: Taylor CF - Buxton DH - Correa SS - Miranda 1B - Polanco 2B - Jeffers C - Gordon LF - Farmer 3B - Kepler RF My opinion is Gallo must be worst LH hitter v. LH pitching, not sure, he sits. Had similar thought you did but only carrying 2 catchers, probably can’t DH one of them in case Catcher needs to be replaced. Seems like there’s some reason that there’s risk with that move?
  15. JD-TWINS
    Farmer’s our back-up at 3B - SS - 2B……..that’s 75 starts just resting 3 guys. Gotta think that with his improved offense v. Lefties he will start every game against Lefties & Miranda will be at 1B in all those games…….maybe another 25-30 starts other than resting someone. Unless there are injuries that’s probably Farmer’s limit on playing time during regular season. Will probably get 10-20 AB’s as a pinch hitter as well late in games or key situations against left handed pitching. Miranda at 3B for 100 plus starts! I think he hits .275 with 20 HR - hoping he’s a doubles machine!!! Lots of line drives of his barrel. Stay healthy!!
  16. JD-TWINS
    Chasing balls out of the strike zone are how games are lost, but missing balls and making outs at a 33% clip on balls in the strike zone isn’t a winning formula. My point is specific to Mr. Gallo (even though it wasn’t clear) and the tendency to mask his pathetic (no other words for it at MLB level) .199 career batting average by handfuls of contributors here by citing his career OBP. I completely respect his apparent good eye at the plate and his tendency to make pitchers work! I think working a walk is a respectable way to get on base for anyone!! I just don’t think we should rationalize poor hitting with the view that respectable OBP makes up for not being able to make contact 33% of your AB’s. Playing in NY & LA being a reason to hit .169 in 2022 is hard to have respect for no matter who makes the statement. Bottom line is I understand, and am a fan of guys that can walk plus/minus 10% of their plate appearances! I think it’s great that Gallo offsets some of his BA & SO deficiencies by walking regularly. Really! I’ve said repeatedly that his multi position capabilities are a big advantage! He may end up being a savior at 1B if Kirilof can’t play! Look forward to maybe seeing the best outfield D in the league many nights this summer. I just think he’s a big risk pick up for the $ spent…….seems to neutralize Kepler in right or Gordon’s promise in left……...hope it works out!!!
  17. JD-TWINS
    My point of view, the game’s not played on spreadsheets. Comparing batting average v. OBP………..A base hit is better to move runners than a walk, period……..the defense has to play the ball & the runners are moving. Timing for walk v. a hit is real - bases empty walk is great. I’m not anti-OBP! Same with HR. HR with nobody on base 15 times per year isn’t that exciting when it comes to producing runs & wins……effectiveness is linked to timing. If a guy has 500 AB’s and hits .275 & his teammate hits .200 in the same 500 AB’s but they have same OBP at .335…….who’s more effective? To me, it’s nuts to think they are comparable. The .275 hitter is getting on 37 more times with a batted ball through the year. Has to be significantly more productive of the two. If there’s a guy on 3rd & 1 out or a guy on 2nd & 1 out who do you want at the plate? Walking and calling it effective is agreed to, v. producing an out, but how can it be comparable to a base hit in the same situation? I guess one could argue that a base hit with nobody on is an empty stat & not being particularly effective? I struggle with the concept that BA isn’t that valid as a contributor to productivity…….if someone’s on base it’s OK to compare Joey Gallo (.199) to Jose Miranda (.261)……..because their OBP may be similar or because Gallo may hit a HR 1 out of 45 times in that situation?
  18. JD-TWINS
    We were 1 out less than league average per start……….. 6 pitches less per start than league average. 78 pitches v. 84 pitches Ober - Archer - Gray - Bundy - Winder - Mahle ALL either were injured on & off in ‘22 or had been in previous season. If Archer started we all hoped he’d get through 4 innings w/o imploding!!! Ryan was a Rookie. What’s the problem with Baldelli????
  19. JD-TWINS
    He’s 35 & has X years experience in MLB. Long relief today is more than 3 outs…….I think he’d be great in 1.3 - 2.3 inning stints! The other long relief options I’ve seen posted are Ober & Winder. Their experience is measured in multiple months.
  20. JD-TWINS
    It appears they are holding still with current relievers until that point. Maybe they have a deal outlined with one of these guys? Fingers crossed! I still want the Maeda contract adjusted slightly so they can use him in the Pen. BEST long relief option. Any of the 4 guys above are worth signing, not because they have outstanding stuff, but because they won’t blink in the 8th inning in July nor September after they just walked a guy. Our current relief corps is young or not a lot of intestinal fortitude (J. Lopez/Pagán) shown to date. We’d be really solid with one of those guys & Maeda displacing Pagán & López. PEN: (1 of FA above) plus Maeda - Jax - Duran - Megill - Moran - Thielbar - Alcala
  21. JD-TWINS
    Kenta Maeda is my choice - comes with experience in that role!!
  22. JD-TWINS
    Seriously - I’ve never heard of a guy named Brown? Unless Taylor gets hurt or hits sub .150, Garlick - Contreras - Celestino don’t even get free tickets to games in Minneapolis. Gordon - Larnach - Buxton - Gallo - Kepler - Taylor is about as deep as an outfield can get. If Kepler’s traded, that change’s the possibility that somebody from AAA is involved at some point in the year. Gotta think Walner would be the logical choice. Celestino has 3-4 ifs in his description for future. Martin - Lewis seem to be ready to go, at least with what’s been seen so far. Give Martin a couple months this spring & let Lewis finish his re-hab and they will jump ahead of the other AAA alternatives. They can hit!
  23. JD-TWINS
    I’m a pro Gordon guy after 2022! He’s an OUTFIELDER! To me he’s got enough speed & hits with enough consistency against RH pitching to be as close as we can get to a prototype lead-off guy. He could be more selective and maybe walk 3-4 times more per month! With 575 AB’s this year he could be a 38 doubles guy. He won’t be cheated on swing. Vs. Left handed starters I think Michael Taylor makes sense. He can steal a base occasionally. He can run & his spilts against Lefties suggest he’ll start against all left handers. These guys are athletic & durable. I like Gallo 1st maybe 10-15 times per year if Gordon is sitting against a RH. He would be good against power arms or somebody that isn’t a great control guy early. With the former he might turn a fastball around & with the latter he can use his ability to walk. Julien’s gotta make the team before I speculate with him in any spot in order. Lewis could drop into the #1 spot after July & we probably shed ourselves of either Gallo or Kepler. LH opposition starter (30 games): Taylor - Buxton - Correa - Polanco - Miranda - Farmer - Gordon - Jeffers - Keppler RH opposition starter (130 games): Gordon - Kirilof - Correa - Larnach - Polanco - Vazquez - Kepler - Miranda - Gallo Obviously, Buxton will play 100 games or so against RH pitching and alternate with Larnach at DH & Gordon in CF. With LH pitching being a personal target for success and the fact that he’s spelling Miranda - CC - Polanco ……….Farmer will be playing 120 games this year……….maybe a surprise?
  24. JD-TWINS
    Correct, we don’t have an obvious guy and match-ups will drive who gets slotted there daily. One thing I don’t have to IMAGINE is that Gallo has hit at a .199 clip over his career, and this has a great chance of not having success as a “get on base” guy. Considering other options.
  25. JD-TWINS
    Sure - am concerned about every player’s health that has been on IL previously with more than a minor ailment. Your examples of other guys shoulder problems & recovery rates were informative but nothing gives the FO nor the fans a warm feeling. Lopez’ 2022 is encouraging but not any kind of guarantee. P. López - yes Maeda - fixed? T. Mahle - yes Gray - routinely tender Ober - yes Larnach - routinely out Polanco - yes Winder - in & out Buxton - YES Kirilof - YES Am probably missing an obvious one or two guys? These guys are key pieces to our success, so, fingers crossed. Health killed us last year & there’s 38% of our roster listed here that we should have legitimate questions about……..how many of these 10 start the season healthy?….,,how many get through June unscathed??
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