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Max Kepler’s name has been tied to trade rumors for multiple seasons. After a terrific 2023 campaign, the Twins have three reasons to trade their right fielder. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Max Kepler has grown up in the Twins organization since signing as a teenager on the international market. There were plenty of ups and downs throughout his professional career. He was the Southern League Player of the Year in 2015 after he finished the season with a .327 batting average, nine home runs, and 18 stolen bases. He was a consensus top-60 prospect entering the 2017 season, and there was hope that he would begin to flourish at the big-league level. Kepler’s MLB career has been inconsistent on offense while developing into one of baseball’s best defensive right-fielders. From 2016-18, his OPS+ hovered just points below 100 while showing stretches where he could be one of the team’s best hitters. In 2019, he had a breakout season by hitting .252/.336/.519 (.855) with 32 doubles and 36 home runs. Baseballs weren’t being hit out at record rates after 2019, and Kepler’s OPS+ dropped to 97 from 2020-22. Minnesota reportedly attempted to trade Kepler following the season but didn’t like the value being offered in return. Minnesota’s payroll is likely dropping for next season, and trading veterans is one avenue to make other roster additions. Here are three reasons why the time is right for a Kepler trade. 1. Kepler's Contract is Expiring It’s now or never for the Twins to make a trade involving Kepler. He’s in the final year of team control after signing a team-friendly contract extension early in his career. An acquiring team could also extend a qualifying offer to Kepler next winter if he is traded during the current offseason. Eligible players would have received a one-year deal worth $20.3 million this winter, but no players accepted the qualifying offer. Kepler has been worth $17 million or more in every full season, and he’s been worth $20.7 million or more in three seasons, including last year. The Twins could always attempt to trade him at the trade deadline, but then he is a rental player who wouldn’t be eligible for the qualifying offer. 2. Kepler is Due for Regression Kepler’s offensive performance in the second half is one of the big reasons the Twins got separation in the division race. In 66 games, he posted a .926 OPS with 17 doubles, two triples, and 12 home runs. It seems likely that there will be some regression in his offensive output when compared to his career totals. Baseball-Reference projects Kepler to post a .746 OPS in 2024 with 21 doubles and 18 home runs. Those totals are decent for a strong defensive player, but other teams might be bought in on the improvements made by Kepler in the second half. Baseball Trade Values has Kepler with an 8.9 surplus value, which is higher than Jorge Polanco even though the latter has an additional year of team control. 3. Other Corner Outfield Options The Twins need to upgrade the current roster, including adding a starting center fielder and a playoff-caliber starter. Both of those needs come at a high cost in free agency or trade, which leaves the team looking for flexibility on the roster. Minnesota has other corner outfield options, including Matt Wallner, Trevor Larnach, Willi Castro, and Nick Gordon. Castro, a switch-hitter, is the only non-lefty in the group, so there isn’t much of an opportunity to play the platoon advantage. Wallner seems like a natural fit to slide over to right field to take even more advantage of his elite throwing arm. Then, the Twins can mix and match players in left field depending on the matchup. Kepler has been in the Twins organization for so long that it’s easy for fans to point out his flaws. There’s no question that he has been a vital role player for a Twins team attempting to return to winning baseball after a decade of ineptitude. Kepler's name made multiple appearaces in the trade proposals created for the Twins Daily Offseason Handbook (Click Here to Download). Some will be sad to see him go, and others will be happy to see him leave. Either way, it seems most likely for Kepler to be wearing another team’s uniform on the first day of spring training. Do you think the Twins will trade Kepler? How much value does he have after the 2023 season? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

After arguably his best season at the major-league level, Max Kepler's trade value is as high as it ever will be. Should the Twins take advantage of Kepler's sky-high market value or keep the 30-year-old veteran in the pursuit of a World Series run? Image courtesy of Nick Wosika - USA TODAY Sports In the classic transcendentalist novel Walden, author Henry David Thoreau wrote, "In any weather, at any hour of the day or night, I have been anxious to improve the nick of time, and notch it on my stick too; to stand on the meeting of two eternities, the past and present, which is precisely the present moment; to toe that line." The Twins find themselves at the meeting of two eternities, deciding whether or not they should keep the third longest-tenured Minnesota Twins player, Max Kepler, or trade him. Critically analyzing Kepler's past, present, and future is essential when analyzing whether trading him would be in the Twins' best interest. The Past On September 27, 2015, Kepler debuted for the Twins, striking out while pinch-hitting for Twins legend Torii Hunter during a 7-1 victory over the Detroit Tigers. Since then, Kepler has played in 966 games for the Twins, hitting .236/.319/.434 (.753) with 800 hits, 153 home runs, 390 walks, and 709 strikeouts. Despite posting two above-average seasons with the Twins in 2019 (122 wRC+) and 2020 (109 wRC+), Kepler's tenure with the Twins has consistently been plagued by frustration, vexation, and wasted potential. Interestingly, Kepler, despite posting below-average seasons in 2021 (97 wRC+) and 2022 (95 wRC+), seemingly regained his 2019 Bomba Squad form and posted what was arguably his best season as a Major League Baseball player, hitting .260/.332/.484 (.816) with 24 home runs, generating 2.6 fWAR and a 124 wRC+ over 491 plate appearances. Halfway through the 2023 season, many who follow the Twins were ready to cut ties with Kepler, struggling for a third straight season, and replace him with the younger Matt Wallner, who was tearing up Triple-A pitching at the time. Luckily, the front office ignored our pleas, and Kepler became a cog in the Twins' resurgent post-All-Star Break lineup, helping the franchise win their first AL Central title since 2020. It was reported the Twins were shopping Kepler last offseason when his perceived value was much less than it is now, so should the Twins finally execute the decision they have been meandering over for some time now? The Present It is late November, and after the Twins exercised Kepler's $10 million team option for 2024, he will be under team control for one more season. For many reasons, above-average veteran players on expiring contracts are enticing to contending teams, and with the corner outfield free agent and trade market being scarce this offseason, teams may be willing to shell out surprisingly favorable offers to the Twins for Kepler's services. This train of thought was already expressed nationally when The Athletic's Keith Law wrote that he "sees the upside" with Kepler and wouldn't have been surprised if a team had offered him a 4-5 year contract worth $20-25 million per season on the open market. So, with Kepler's trade value rising, what type of package could the Twins net in return? If the Twins were to trade Kepler, it would make sense for them to make another position player for a starting pitcher swap, like they did trading Luis Arráez to the Miami Marlins for Pablo López last offseason. Similarly to last offseason, the Twins need a frontline starting pitcher, and they yet again have a surplus of Major League-ready left-handed corner bats, like Kepler, to trade. Starting pitchers the Twins could execute this trade for include Edward Cabrera of the Marlins, Alex Cobb of the Giants, and Nestor Cortes of the Yankees. Although these three pitchers possess value and would slot in as the Twins' number two starter behind López, the Twins could instead sign free-agent pitchers of similar value, like Michael Wacha or Seth Lugo, without having to part with their starting right fielder. The Future The Twins plan on reducing their payroll this offseason. Regardless, with Kepler costing only $10 million and the Twins not having a reliable corner outfield option beyond Wallner, who will likely be the Opening Day starting left fielder, it would be in the World Series-hopeful Twins best interest to keep Kepler at his current salary. Suppose the Twins keep Kepler, and he again produces at an above-average rate in 2024. In that case, the Twins will then be tasked with deciding whether to extend Kepler the qualifying offer, offer him a contract extension, or let him walk in free agency. The 2025 qualifying offer will likely be between $21-22 million, as it currently sits at $20.325 million and steadily increases every season. Offering Kepler, who will be 31-year-old, a four to five-year deal worth $20-25 million would likely come back to haunt the Twins as he is an inconsistent and moderately volatile player who could quickly revert to his late-2020-to-mid-2023 ways, but extending him the one-year, $21-22 million would make sense for both parties. The Twins could keep an elite defensive corner outfielder, who would be coming off two straight above-average offensive seasons, at a reasonable rate while not committing to a long-term contract that could backfire. On the other hand, Kepler could capitalize off two straight admirable seasons and earn his first big payday at 31 years old. Regardless, the Twins front office is tasked with making a tough decision this offseason. They could trade Kepler for an above-average starting pitcher or keep him and ride out his last season under team control in pursuit of their first World Series title since 1991. Should the Twins keep or trade Kepler? If the Twins traded Kepler, who would you want them to get in return? Comment below. View full article

Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are both prime candidates to be traded this offseason, but their demand on the market will be dictated by how needy teams view their relative appeal versus the free agent classes at second base and right field. Let's see how they stack up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins recently confirmed that they'll be looking to trim payroll this offseason, which may create some challenges as they aim to address a set of clear needs on the roster. One of the most straightforward ways for the front office to create some spending flexibility is by trading one or both of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. The longtime Twins mainstays are both under contract for around $10 million apiece next season; the club could clear as much as $20 million from the 2024 payroll by moving them and their salaries. Adding to the appeal of this idea: the emergence of standout rookies (Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner) at second base and right field, and the fact that both Polanco and Kepler boast solid trade value. That latter point is key, because as we've seen, this Twins front office isn't going to trade guys they like just for the sake of doing so. Both Polanco and Kepler are coming off solid seasons and, more importantly, the free agent alternatives at their positions aren't very compelling. The value Minnesota might get back in a trade for one or both of these veterans will be dictated by how much 2B/RF-needy teams are willing to give up, and that will be determined by how much more attractive Polanco and Kepler (and their contracts) are compared to signing a free agent for only money. Here's a look at how both players would rank on against the free agent classes at their respective positions, to give you an idea of the options being weighed by these teams. Right Field: Max Kepler vs. The Market Kepler's trade value: Following a breakthrough second half that re-established him as an All-Star caliber talent, Kepler has one remaining season under contract at $10 million. The short-term control could be viewed as a downside, but teams might also value the flexibility of a one-year deal versus locking into a 30+ year-old free agent for several years. In listing its position-by-position free agents, MLB.com ranks players by fWAR over the past two seasons (2022-23), so we'll add Kepler into that mix using the same lens. What we find is that Kepler outranks every single free agent right fielder, and is also the youngest of the bunch: Max Kepler (31 years old, 4.6 WAR) Teoscar Hernández (31, 4.3) Hunter Renfroe (32, 3.1) Jason Heyward (34, 1.8) Randal Grichuk (32, 0.4) Wil Myers (33, 0.3) Tyler Naquin (33, 0.1) Kevin Pillar (35, 0.1) Kole Calhoun (36, -1.3) Only Hernández, whom MLB Trade Rumors projected to get an $80 million contract coming off a fairly underwhelming season, is even in Kepler's range in terms of value over the past two years. And that's with Kepler being quite disappointing offensively for a large stretch of that period. The drop-off is especially steep for any team specifically targeting a left-handed hitting right fielder. Heyward, Myers, Naquin and Calhoun are not appealing targets at this stage of their careers – at least in anything resembling a full-time role. Kepler is the clear standout of the pack here. Second Base: Jorge Polanco vs. The Market Polanco's trade value: Polanco's contractual situation is even more favorable than Kepler's – he's controllable for two more years with a $12.5 million team option in 2025. Polanco has been an extremely consistent hitter, with an OPS+ of 110 or better in each of the past five full MLB seasons. Teams are sure to be wary of Polo's recent injury history, but a review of the free agent market at second base casts his risk level in a different light. Here's how Polanco ranks against this year's class by 2022-23 fWAR: Elvis Andrus (35 years old, 4.6 WAR) Jorge Polanco (30, 3.3) Whit Merrifield (35, 3.0) Tony Kemp (32, 1.5) Kolten Wong (33, 1.5) Adam Frazier (32, 1.3) Jonathan Schoop (32, 1.2) Rougned Odor (30, 1.0) Josh Harrison (36, 0.8) Hanser Alberto (31, -0.7) Leury García (33, -1.1) Pretty much everyone below the Merrifield line is a clear-cut backup-caliber player at this point, and no one's idea of an assertive solution to a middle-infield need. So then you've got Polanco near the top going against two mid-30s players in decline. Andrus technically edges Polanco in fWAR, but that's mostly because of a random 3.5-WAR last season that's an outlier from everything else he's done in the past six years. Merrifield has more appeal as a flex player than a full-time second baseman. No one in this class comes close to offering the offensive floor or ceiling of Polanco. With two reasonably priced years remaining under contract and a more consistent track record, I actually think he compares even more favorably against his class than Kepler against right fielders. Unsurprisingly, rumors are already circulating that the Twins intend to shop Polanco around this winter. Ultimately, his value in a trade will be dependent on how confident the team acquiring him is that Polanco can stay healthy. The veteran infielder played in only 80 games this year due to injury issues, and often looked hobbled down the stretch, although he was able to play in every playoff game. Even with the risk that comes attached to him, Polanco compares favorably to aging players like Andrus and Merrifield in free agency. Kepler's drawbacks are also healthily outweighed by his strengths in comparing him to the right field market. As the Twins reach the end of the road with these two long-tenured fixtures, they find a very favorable offseason environment for talking trade. Both players figure to be in high demand. View full article

The Minnesota Twins will have some internal decisions to make this offseason, and as they look to restructure their 40-man roster, some players will be pieced out in trades. One that seems likely and potentially valuable is Trevor Larnach. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota drafted Trevor Larnach with the 20th overall pick during the 2018 Major League Baseball Draft. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine were still getting their feet wet in the front office, and while Sean Johnson was still in charge of the draft, Larnach’s selection indicated a new direction. This current regime has leaned into college hitters with impressive exit velocities. As those sustain at the next level and give major league organizations something to work with, a player from a National Championship team in Oregon was plenty to get excited about. Three years into his big-league career, Larnach squeaked onto the Opening Day roster in 2023 but had been trending towards Triple-A for most of the spring. The one-time top-50 prospect had a .708 OPS through 47 games to start the season but got only brief stints in June and July while searching for his missing power. Despite being able to punish the baseball, Larnach’s game power has translated into just 20 dingers across his first 188 career games. Due to his inability to handle off-speed pitches at times, Larnach's lack of slugging prowess has held him back. When Joey Gallo went down late in the year for Rocco Baldelli’s Twins, it was Larnach who again got an opportunity. From the end of July to early September, Larnach had a .536 slugging percentage for the Saints, hitting seven home runs in a stretch of 38 games. The Twins were looking for that, and they were hoping it would finally translate. Filling in as Minnesota headed toward the postseason, Larnach drew starts in just four of eight games. Despite the sporadic playing time, he brought the power from St. Paul. Two of his four hits left the yard, and he doubled in a third. With a 5/3 K/BB, he showed solid plate discipline while stinging the ball when putting it in play, albeit in a small sample. There wasn’t much indication that Larnach would be on the postseason roster, even with Byron Buxton out of the equation. He is a corner outfielder blocked by both Max Kepler and Matt Wallner. That resembles much of the same situation Minnesota will find this offseason, with Kepler’s option already picked up. Although some luster has worn off for a soon-to-be-27-year-old, Larnach could be a late-bloomer, not yet arbitration-eligible until 2025. In dealing Larnach, Minnesota would be moving on from a position of surplus. The outfield corners are ripe with options for the Twins, and a major league-ready talent could be sold as a high-floor breakout candidate if the pitch is correct. Sending Larnach out in a deal isn’t going to result in a blockbuster, and he won’t be the cornerstone of something massive. He does represent much more than a throw-in, though, and the team control he comes with could be appealing to plenty of suitors. Whereas the idea of trading for a young high-ceiling prospect like Yasser Mercedes may be titillating due to what you could dream on, Larnach is a more of the realized version with an opportunity to blossom. Ultimately, Larnach represents an ideal candidate to be moved by Minnesota this winter, and freeing up a spot on the 40-man roster by adding a more necessary talent is enticing. Sometimes draft picks and prospects are about future capital, and while Larnach wouldn’t be playing to his potential in the organization he initially joined, cashing in on him in the form of another provides a lengthened arc for the story. What do you think? Is Trevor Larnach in the Twins organization on Opening Day in 2024? What type of return do you see him bringing back? View full article

It feels odd to say, but his managing moves have largely worked, and his team broke the most exhausting streak in sports. Most of the criticisms he's faced are unfounded. Could Rocco Baldelli actually be an asset as manager? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports One thing to know about baseball fans is that they all hold the firm belief that their team’s manager is terrible and holding their team back from limitless success. Plenty of Yankees fans hate Aaron Boone, thinking he’s too soft on his players. Blue Jays fans think John Schneider is too beholden to analytics. Astros fans think Dusty Baker is too beholden to Martin Maldonado. Even Guardians fans liked to roast Terry "Tito" Francona for insisting on playing Myles Straw, Cam Gallagher and Amed Rosario. Torey Lovullo and Dave Roberts? Bad in-game moves. Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell? Patsies for the front office. And a vocal (at least on social media) segment of Twins fandom think that Rocco Baldelli is complete trash. They think he focuses too much on analytics, resulting in an over-reliance on platoon matchups, and quick hooks for his starters. It doesn’t seem to matter much that Twins starters were second in baseball in innings pitched. It doesn’t seem to matter that the Twins' use of platoons in the second half likely saved their season. For the year the Twins ranked sixth in baseball in wRC+ for pinch hitters, including being third in all of baseball with a 124 wRC+ in the second half. They were also third in hitting lefties during the second half. It also doesn’t seem to matter that Baldelli has altered his approach to match his personnel: In 2022, with a flammable pitching staff that struggled across the board to pitch effective innings deep in games, Twins starters ranked 20th in innings pitched. In 2019 with the bomba squad, the Twins had the eighth fewest pinch hitters. In 2023, with guys like Alex Kirilloff, Matt Wallner and Edouard Julien all major liabilities against lefties, the Twins had the third most pinch hitters. Fans criticize Baldelli for Twins hitters striking out too much, not hitting situationally, and not bunting to move runners over. The truth is that the Twins ranked eleventh in baseball in bunt hits, with 13, and 19th in sacrifice bunts, with twelve. This despite an offense that led the American League in home runs. More importantly, they also ranked fourth in wRC+ with runners in scoring position. The strikeouts were historically high, and contributed to Houston pitching shutting them down in games three and four of the ALDS, but for one, Baldelli wasn’t telling them to do that. Two, when the Twins were struggling offensively in the first half, their strikeout rate was 26.8%, most in baseball. In the second half, when the Twins were the third most productive offense in baseball, their strikeout rate was 26.4%. And three, it is on the front office to add more contact to the lineup in 2024, but they don’t have to do much. Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo are free agents and struck out 33.5% and 42.8% of the time respectively, both incredibly high numbers. The Twins young hitters can hopefully improve, particularly Wallner and Julien. And the reinforcements at Triple A, Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, struck out 16% and 16.3%, respectively. The team that Carlos Correa compares this team to, the 2015 Astros, had the second highest strikeout rate in baseball that year. I don't have to tell you how it's gone since then. The main takeaway I have about Baldelli is that his team ended the playoff futility streak. You can claim that the team won despite him, but the reality is that the streak presented more of a mental challenge than any sort of game strategy hurdles (Although he graded out pretty well there, too). For 19 years, the Twins played tight in the playoffs. They started that way this year, too. Game 1 of the Wild Card series began with Kirilloff whiffing on a foul ball, then Jorge Polanco making a throwing error to the same batter. But from that point on, the Twins were solid defensively, played smart, and although their hitting wasn’t great, they got the W. And then two more. Players did not criticize Baldelli at any point, even when they were at their lowest in May and June. Sonny Gray was rumored to be miffed about Baldelli removing him from games before he wanted to, but he pitched his most innings since 2015. It has been reported that he wants to return, as well. Joe Ryan had opportunity to blast Baldelli and the coaching staff for removing him after two innings on Wednesday, but he didn’t. He understood that the best chance the Twins had to win that game was to throw all of their high-octane relievers, and not only did the Twins hold Houston to three runs, they didn’t allow any add-on runs after Jose Abreu’s home run in the fourth. If you have watched any Twins postseason games in the past 22 years, you know that may be a first. Baldelli won division titles his first two years. In 2021, Josh Donaldson, JA Happ, Matt Shoemaker and Alex Colome made sure there wouldn’t be a three-peat. In 2022, the team entered the trade deadline fairly healthy and leading the division. Then 19 players went down with season-ending injuries. The Twins made noise for the first time in decades these past few weeks, and some credit has to go to Baldelli. It’s hard to quantify, but I’ll try. Being considered an elite manager is part luck, part pure longevity and part skill. And you either need a lot of skill or a lot of luck to reach the longevity part. It took Bruce Bochy winning a championship in 2010 before he was given credit for pulling the right strings and uniting clubhouses. After 16 years of managing. Francona ended the Red Sox curse his first year on the job, so he was playing with house money. That made it easier to believe that his players loved him and would run through brick walls for him. Brandon Hyde took his Orioles through an entire rebuild. Most of the time, managers that lead rebuilding clubs are replaced once the team gets good (poor Rick Renteria). Hyde was allowed to see his team through to success, and now is regarded as a manager of the year candidate. Whether his newfound reputation as a hard nosed but smart manager is due to opportunity, or due to merit, is impossible to know. Baldelli is polished and professional to the media, but an uncouth New Englander behind the scenes. Gabe Kapler in the streets, Tommy Lasorda in the sheets, if you will. Time after time, when pressed about what caused the turnaround this season, players referred to an energetic, close-knit clubhouse where guys were communicative and accountable (compare that to the White Sox clubhouse). That’s on Baldelli. Sure the personnel was responsible for the offense coming to life in the second half. But Wallner, Julien and Royce Lewis were still rookies, and it takes a certain vibe to get young players acclimated to the big leagues quickly and productively. That’s partly on veterans like Kyle Farmer, Kepler, Gray and Correa creating that atmosphere. But keeping veterans bought in and happy with their situation, even if they aren’t playing as much as they would like, is on Baldelli. There’s also what he didn’t do. Baldelli never lashed out at the media, he never threw his players under the bus (except once for Kepler, but that tactic had the desired effect), and he never gave away game plans or strategies other teams could exploit. He also has had zero off-the-field issues. His players never showed him up, and the main criticisms he faced were from the very nuanced gang over at SKOR North trying to drive up engagement by citing the same disproven tropes I mentioned earlier. It’s still possible that Baldelli is more of a neutral-ish manager overall, but one more division title and a little more playoff noise in 2024 (his sixth year as manager) will cement him as not just an asset, but a franchise-altering presence. If that happens, we should worry less about who wants him fired, and more about him jumping ship for a higher-profile job somewhere else. When was the last time that was a possibility? View full article

The Twins had three Gold Glove Finalists, but the trio failed to win the top honors. Here are the highs and lows for the team in the final SDI rankings. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final totals for the 2023 season. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 3.2 SDI (2nd), Sonny Gray 3.0 SDI (3rd) Lopez and Gray were Gold Glove finalists and finished in the top three in the final SDI rankings. Gray made a tremendous jump in the season’s second half to move from the bottom half to the top five. Lopez ranked well for a large portion of the season and might have put himself in contention for a Gold Glove in future years. Former Twins pitcher Jose Berrios won his first Gold Glove and ranked as the top pitcher in the AL, according to SDI. He has been a tremendous defender throughout his career, so it was long overdue for him to take home the hardware. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.5 SDI (4th), Ryan Jeffers -0.3 SDI (10th) Vazquez saw his offense suffer during the 2023 season, but his defense continued to rank near the top of the league. He more than doubled his SDI total from August 13th to the season’s end, which can be challenging for catchers at the end of a long season. Jeffers had a positive SDI earlier in the season but saw his total drop in the second half. He still finished in the top 10, and the Twins had enough confidence in him to start every playoff game behind the plate. It will be interesting to monitor how this duo continues to rank in future years as they work together. First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (5th) For most of the season, the Twins had no one qualified for the SDI leaderboard at first base. Alex Kirilloff’s injury forced the Twins to use other options at first, including Gallo. The Twins had confidence in Gallo playing first base when they signed him last winter because bench coach Jayce Tingler worked with Gallo in Texas. Gallo’s defense wasn’t outstanding, but he did enough to finish among the top five AL first basemen in SDI. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins used Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco at second base during the 2023 campaign, with both struggling defensively at the position. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he was worth -7 OAA during the current season. Julien entered the season with a reputation as a poor second base defender, but he worked hard and saw improved results. He had a -2 OAA in the middle of August and ended the season with a 0 OAA. Minnesota will need to decide on their defensive alignment for the 2024 campaign, and Julien might get more time at first base. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Minnesota used a variety of players at third base this season, including Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, and Royce Lewis. Miranda’s defense was poor (-6 OAA), but a shoulder injury impacted him throughout the season. Lewis was learning a new position after playing shortstop for most of his professional career. He moved from a negative OAA in August to a positive OAA by the season’s end. With a full offseason, one can expect Lewis to be even better at the hot corner in 2024. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -2.7 SDI (9th) Correa was a surprise inclusion on the list of Gold Glove Finalists, but that speaks to how much the players and managers respect him in the voting process. He didn’t rank well by many defensive metrics, including a negative SDI and 1 OAA. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was one of the reasons for fluctuations in his metrics. Twins saw what he could mean defensively in the playoffs, with Correa making multiple game-changing plays. Following the season, the Twins named Correa the team's best defensive player as part of the Diamond Awards. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.5 SDI (4th) Castro didn’t have a strong defensive reputation when he joined the Twins, but he put together solid numbers at multiple positions. He played six defensive positions and posted a positive OAA at second base, third base, and shortstop. Left field was the lone outfield position where he didn’t have a negative OAA (0 OAA in LF). Joey Gallo ranked among the AL’s top 10 in August, but he played more first base down the stretch (see above). Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (5th) Taylor looked like a potential Gold Glove finalist at mid-season before stalling out. He dropped from a tie for third in SDI to fifth overall in the final rankings. His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 90th percentile. Taylor was everything the Twins could hope for and more in center field, and the team will need to re-sign him or find a replacement this winter. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.5 SDI (5th) Like Kepler’s bat, his defense made considerable strides in the second half. In August’s SDI update, he ranked 9th among AL right fielders, and he finished the year in the top-5. The Twins have always thought highly of Kepler’s defensive value, and he finished the year with an OAA in the 86th percentile. Kepler’s slow start( some due to injury) likely cost him a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who would you rank as the team's top defender? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Twins are cutting payroll. Here are six bad impacts - and one good one. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal. What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news. The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M. Here are the six crummiest results you'll find. 1. See Ya, Sonny The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray. That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive). Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency. 2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder. With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear. 3. Desirable Duo The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs. So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return. So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen. 4. Farewell Farmer The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder. Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster. 5. Harvesting the Farm Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects. 6. Foul Up Fan Support After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS. That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources. Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it. 7. The Silver Lining is Streaming One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years. Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are reducing their payroll in 2024, but with several contracts coming off the books this offseason, they still have some room to make additions this offseason. Here's a breakdown of what the budget looks like based off the reported payroll target. View full video

Matt Wallner had a frustrating postseason debut in 2023, and many fans were rightfully disappointed. It’s worth noting that despite a poor stretch of five games, Wallner should have established himself as an exciting part of the 2024 lineup. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Matt Wallner is a great story, being one of several native Minnesotans on the Twins roster in 2023. Many fans have been rooting for him since being drafted by the Twins 39th overall in 2019. His debut in 2022 left a lot of questions about his ability to hold up against MLB-level pitching. 2023 was far from perfect, but headed into 2024, Wallner should have fans feeling a bit better. Fans hate strikeouts. Twins fans especially do after watching the home team strike out a record number of times in 2023. They’ve also been subject to long stretches of hollow at-bats by hitters such as Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo in recent years, which has turned them particularly sour to whiffs. Strikeouts are a part of Matt Wallner’s game; there’s no way around it. Even in Triple-A, he struck out just a shade under 30% of the time in 2023. His 31.5% rate improved from the 38.5% he posted in limited action in 2022. The question with players like Matt Wallner isn’t whether they will strike out. It’s whether they make the strikeouts worth it. In 2023, Matt Wallner showed that he can make the trade-off worthwhile. In 254 plate appearances, Wallner slashed .249/.370/.507, good for 44% above the league average hitter. He walked 11% of the time and was on a 30+ homer pace for an entire season. Max Kepler had the lowest strikeout rate on the Twins, with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and Wallner outpaced him in OPS .877 to .816. Matt Wallner’s 2023 is a prime example of how a high strikeout rate can be worth it. More encouraging even than Wallner cutting his strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023 is the fact that pitchers seemed to find a hole in his swing midseason, and Wallner was able to adjust back. The strikeouts became a focal point when Wallner went 0-16 with eight strikeouts from September 5-10, causing some to wonder whether we were watching things play out similarly to Trevor Larnach earlier in the season. Wallner took a day off to make some adjustments and finished the season, slashing .354/.456/.646 with a 28% strikeout rate. As a hitter who tries to wait out the pitcher to make a mistake, the strikeouts go hand in hand with the power and walks. Anything close that he doesn’t want to hit, he’ll spit on. Sometimes, he’ll miss pitches in the zone with two strikes, leading to higher strikeout rates. It’s an approach that could become a lot easier to accept if the Twins don’t have such a strikeout-heavy team in 2024. Joey Gallo and his 42.8% strikeout rate will be off the roster next season. Michael A. Taylor and his 33.5% strikeout rate may be as well. With fewer all-or-nothing hitters in the lineup regularly, Wallner should be a better complementary hitter in the Twins lineup, especially when contact specialists such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin debut. It’s still a limited number of at-bats for Wallner in his career, but the high ceiling he’s shown, along with the ability to adjust, should be very encouraging. He may always be prone to stretches of low points to go along with the highs, but the hope is that as he develops, he becomes more consistent and continues to be able to adjust back to opposing pitchers. Five games in October shouldn’t warp fans' view of Matt Wallner. He had an unbelievable year, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have a chance at an everyday role in 2024. Is he due for regression? Could he possibly even improve upon his impressive 2023? Let us know below! View full article

The two long-tenured Twins are now under contract for 2024. That doesn't necessarily mean either will be playing in Minnesota next year. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In a move that shouldn't have caught anyone off-guard, the Minnesota Twins announced on Thursday that they are exercising their respective team options for 2024 on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Among current Twins players, only Byron Buxton has been around as long as these two long-time fixtures, who are now locked into their contracts for the coming season. Both have their question marks, to be sure. Polanco has dealt with continual lower-body injuries in the past couple of seasons, and Kepler's performance was perpetually underwhelming up until the midway point of 2023. Still, at the prices their options entail -- $10 million for Kepler, $10.5 million for Polo, these decisions were truly no-brainers. Each player would command far more on the open market, and as such, will draw trade interest if the Twins are so inclined. This procedural move sets the stage for an offseason that will likely be dominated by trade speculation around both Polanco and Kepler. The right fielder and second baseman are proven commodities who were both arguably made redundant by the emergence of standout rookies this year -- specifically, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Kepler's offensive breakout and outstanding right field defense make him a strong asset. Polanco has been one of the most consistent offensive performers in the middle infield across the league. Shortcomings aside, these are good players still in their primes, with short-term and relatively low-cost commitments. That will make them attractive to other clubs, but also makes them attractive to the Twins, who clearly like both players a lot beyond what they bring to the field. They also like depth. The future for both Kepler and Polanco remains to be seen, but for now, as expected, they are under contract to play for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. View full article

Here's a roundup of a bunch of Minnesota Twins news items and topics, starting with Kala'i Rosario's performance in the Arizona Fall League. Also discussed is the Twins being shut out of the Silver Slugger nominations, how the Twins fared against the LCS teams this year, an interesting look into minor league statcast data by Baseball America and which of MLB's top-25 free agents they see as potential targets for the Twins. View full video

Minnesota's championship window has been thrust open. The front office's decisions this offseason could prove pivotal in dictating whether the Twins take the next step or stumble. Here's a primer on what lies ahead, including arbitration decisions, pending free agents, and 40-man roster considerations. The Twins are in good shape heading into this offseason. They just won the AL Central behind a youth-fueled surge in the second half, and made noise in the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years. They're able to bring back a majority of their roster, and could field a contending team without making a single move. The front office has a stable base to build from as they aim to elevate the Twins to a commanding presence in the American League. But they also have some challenges in front of them. Looking ahead to a high-stakes offseason, here's a rundown of key things to know about the roster, the payroll, and big decisions that loom on the horizon. TEAM OPTIONS AND ARBITRATION DECISIONS The first thing the front office will need to sort out, before figuring out who they want to add, is who they want to keep. Many players (like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton) are under guaranteed contract, but in other cases the Twins can exercise optional control over players via either contract options or arbitration. (Arb estimates courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.) Team Options for 2024: Jorge Polanco ($10.5M) Max Kepler ($10M) Arbitration Eligible in 2024: Kyle Farmer ($6.6M) Willi Castro ($3.2M) Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) Alex Kirilloff: ($1.7M) Jordan Luplow: ($1.6M) Jorge Alcala: ($1M) Nick Gordon: ($1M) Plenty of no-brainers among this crop, but also some tricky decisions. It's fair to say several players on the list are trade candidates, with Farmer and Kepler standing out as most likely candidates. PENDING FREE AGENTS These are the members of the 2023 Twins who are set to hit the open market after the World Series concludes, starting with the reigning team MVP: Sonny Gray, SP Michael A. Taylor, CF Emilio Pagán, RP Kenta Maeda, SP Donovan Solano, 1B Joey Gallo, 1B/OF With the exception of Gallo, these all feel like players the Twins need to either re-sign or replace in their roles. Finding a way to offset the (presumed) loss of Gray atop the rotation is priority No. 1, but it will also be important to develop strong depth and contingencies behind Buxton in CF and Kirilloff and 1B, as Taylor and Solano provided this year. 2024 ROSTER AND PAYROLL PROJECTION The table below shows a very-early layout of the Twins 2024 roster as it currently projects, absent any offseason moves. For now, this projection assumes that the team brings back Kepler, Polanco, and all of their arb-eligible players sans Luplow and Gordon. As you can see, the baseline payroll in this scenario is a little under $120M, or about $30 million short of their 2023 payroll. Whether spending will increase, decrease, or stay the same is a rather complex topic for another day. But in any case, there should be some spending money available and the Twins can easily open up more. 40-MAN ROSTER AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT In order to protect their newly-eligible prospects from the Rule 5 draft, and to make room for new offseason additions, the Twins will need to create some space on the 40-man roster. They got a head-start on that process over the weekend by outrighting Andrew Stevenson and José De León. That leaves them at 36 – subtracting all soon-to-be-free agents – which is a pretty good place to start. Especially since there are still several players still on the roster who could be removed without much trepidation (Luplow, Oliver Ortega, etc.). The Twins are going to need some of that room, and not only for hopeful outside additions via free agency and trades. Several minor-leagues are entering the phase of eligibility for the Rule 5 draft, which means Minnesota must add them to the 40-man roster by mid-November or risk losing them to another team. These players include: Jair Camargo, C Austin Martin, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Yunior Severino, IF DaShawn Keirsey Jr., OF Michael Helman, IF Cody Laweryson, RHP Jose Salas, IF Chris Williams, 1B I'd argue that at least the top three on that list are absolute must-adds, and you can make strong cases for several others. These are the decisions and opportunities that will present themselves once the offseason gets underway. And it's not too far off. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily all winter for unrivaled coverage of all the Hot Stove action. View full article

The season is officially over, but for the Minnesota Twins front office, their work is just beginning. Here are 6 key priorities for the Twins as they look to build on their success from 2023. Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports The Twins front office is in a fairly good place heading into the 2023-24 offseason, with a lot of continuity built into their division-winning roster and relatively few blatantly obvious needs. But they do have needs. Here at Twins Daily, the baseball season never ends. We'll be firing up end-to-end offseason coverage soon, with planned weekly themes in November plus cool bonus content for TD caretakers. Sign up now to make sure you don't miss out! The following top priorities will guide much of the discussion throughout the coming months Here are the boxes the front office must check this winter: ☐ Find a front-end starter to replace Sonny Gray. The Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer. Presumably Gray will turn it down. From there, it becomes very difficult to see the two sides coming back together, though it's not impossible. (See: Carl Pavano, 2011.) That means the Twins front office is tasked with replacing their 2023 team MVP. Gray is going to leave some big shoes to fill as the co-ace who paired with Pablo López to lead one of the best rotations in franchise history. He ranked third in the majors in ERA, trailing only the two surefire Cy Young winners (Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole). Gray was individually worth more than five wins, according to FanGraphs. He was also the team's best pitcher in 2022. It's a big void that will be tough to offset. But the good news is that the front office should have considerable money to spend – their current projected 2024 payroll is at least $30 million lower than this year's – and plenty of intriguing trade chips in their overloaded position-player corps. The latter is especially noteworthy, since this regime has shown a clear knack for trading to acquire frontline starters, with a track record that includes Kenta Maeda, López, and of course Gray. ☐ Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher. Even if the Twins are able to once again pull off a high-scale move to acquire a high-end starter, they shouldn't stop there. The planned 2023 rotation depth included not just Gray, but also Maeda and Tyler Mahle, who are free agents as well. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are nice to have on hand, but the front office should be targeting high-upside additions to raise the ceiling on this unit. The presence of so many proven solid options gives them a stable enough floor to take some risks, which is a fun place to be. The Twins might consider pursuing an opportunistic trade – like, say, for disgruntled Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah – or targeting one of the numerous buy-low candidates in free agency, a group that will include Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and James Paxton. Pete Maki's pitching program instills confidence that the Twins can mine some gold, and suddenly Minnesota is a rather attractive destination for starters. ☐ Make decisions on long-tenured veterans. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: they've been around longer than almost anyone in the clubhouse, and they are both coming off quality seasons (albeit with some ups and downs). The Twins have team options on both for 2024, and it's all but assured those options be exercised. That doesn't mean they will be back. Both Kepler and Polanco could draw significant trade interest for a team that – as we've discussed – needs to backfill some pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have young talent pushing these longtime mainstays. On another front, the Twins must make a decision regarding their other longest-tenured player: Byron Buxton. While trading the hobbled 29-year-old isn't an option, the front office needs to reach a firm stance on what they can expect from Buxton in 2024, and orchestrate their roster-building accordingly. ☐ Figure out the plan at first base. Alex Kirilloff is sadly headlong down the same path as Buxton – too frequently injured to be relied upon from a planning standpoint. His upcoming shoulder labrum surgery leaves the future of first base in a state of limbo. One plan would be to go out and target a new player who could potentially take over as full-time first baseman if Kirilloff can't go. Another would be to think creatively about internal options. For example, top prospect Brooks Lee looks ready to go and currently has no clear path to the big-league roster, with a crowded infield picture. But if first base is open... ☐ Re-evaluate the hitting program. To their credit, David Popkins and the hitters pulled things together in the second half. Buoyed by the immediate success of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, Minnesota's offense was among the league's most potent after the break Still, their whiff-heavy profile continued to make them an especially boom-or-bust unit, and ultimately led to their exit from the playoffs. After setting a new MLB strikeout record as an offense, Minnesota struck out 28 times and scored three total runs in Games 3 and 4 against Houston. It doesn't sound like the Twins are inclined to fully disassociate from this offensive identity – "I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat, go deep into a count and possibly strikeout, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it," said Derek Falvey – but they need to find some balance. Whether that means shaking up the roster a bit, targeting players who specialize in hitting for contact, or making alterations to their training and instruction programs (though it sounds like the main coaches will be back), there are several ways the Twins could approach this. ☐ Extend at least one young building block. The future is here. This is a great moment to lock down some stability, cost assurance, and long-term control. The three rookies mentioned above are all candidates for extensions that will provide them with financial security and the Twins with a bit of extended control. (I favored trying to opportunistically strike a deal like this with Lewis last spring, but alas, that ship sailed.) The Twins could also consider extending one of their younger pitchers, like Ryan, Ober or Jhoan Duran. Another option would be to take the Rays approach and strike a long-term contract with a top prospect who's yet to debut, such as Lee. The bottom line is that, with relatively few major outside needs to address this offseason, the Twins can look inward and aim to take care of business that sets up their proven internal core for longevity and success. View full article

Here’s an overview of some of the early offseason timeline and some important decisions facing the Twins over the next month or so. Among the topics discussed are a Sonny Gray qualifying offer, the team options on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer’s projected arbitration salary and prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. View full video