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The Minnesota Twins had some of the best pitching in MLB this past season. The pitching core carried the team throughout the season, and managed to keep the team around .500 even when the bats weren’t showing up. Now, they need a new core. Image courtesy of © David Richard-USA TODAY Sports This past week, the club lost two of its most valuable assets on the pitching staff, Sonny Gray and Kenta Maeda. Both pitchers had impressive seasons, considering Maeda was returning after an 18-month recovery from Tommy John surgery in 2021. The club has suffered so long without good pitching, so why would the front office allow such difficult departures? Because it was a part of the plan all along. There have been articles and rumors about the Twins wanting to cut a large chunk of their payroll, and even with keeping Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, the Twin's front office right now has an $88-million dollar payroll, a far cry from the 2023 $154-million Opening Day figure. The front office was well aware that three things would happen: They were going to lose Gray and Maeda, they would need more pitching, and they would need to trade some pieces to obtain new arms. Enter the club options of Polanco and Kepler. The Twins first picked up the options for Polanco ($10 million) and Kepler ($10.5 million), two of the Twins' cornerstone players and a fan-favorite duo. Kepler and Polanco have been a part of the Twins organization for 14 seasons, both signing as international free agents from Germany and the Dominican Republic, respectively. They were roommates in spring training for the 2010 season, forming what has proved to be an unbreakable bond. Naturally, when their options were picked up, fans were relieved and excited, but that’s not the end of the story. Polanco and Kepler are huge trade pieces for the Twins. Both players had their ups and downs in 2023. There are reasons why each is an imperfect fit for the 2024 team, but they each have considerable trade value. Kepler played the entire season, starting slowly in the first half, then finding his stride after the All-Star break. He had his best season since 2019, with 24 homers and a .260/.332/.484 line. Kepler hit in the second half of the season like he knew his job was in jeopardy and he’s still one of the best defensive right fielders in the league, but is it enough? Unlike the potential in the infield, the Twins don’t have much immediate help coming in the way of outfielders. With Trevor Larnach being the other option for right field, trading away Kepler would be difficult to justify. The best option would be to bring in someone who would become a full-time outfielder for years to come and be ready to release Kepler after the 2024 season. The infield has some of the best players, and while Polanco is a fantastic, versatile player and a switch-hitter, the club has a lot of young talent that stepped up for the consistently injured veterans--and there is still more at Triple-A St. Paul. Brooks Lee and Austin Martin, both of whom have been improving and showing why they should get their shot in 2024, are knocking on the door. Polanco only played 80 games in the 2023 season due to a long and strenuous battle with injury, but when he was in the game, he produced at the plate and was able to cover second base and the hot corner. Polanco has another club option for 2025, worth $12.5 million with a $750,000 buyout. So, what’s out there that would allow the Twins to get value for Polanco and not to miss Kepler after his deal is up? Only a few pieces are needed to boost the Twins to where they are looking to be, and they don’t have to go far to find that talent. The Brewers have a lot of talent in their farm system, and some that have seen MLB time and who helped them reach the postseason in 2023. A small-market team with a surfeit of both relief pitchers and outfielders, they make perfect suitors. Based on the Twins’ need to replace so many high-quality innings, someone like Bryse Wilson, a rubber-armed long reliever, would be an excellent acquisition. Wilson, a righty who will turn 26 years old this month, has been in the league since 2018, having been drafted in 2016 by the Braves. He spent his formative years in Atlanta before being traded to Pittsburgh, who flipped him to Milwaukee last winter for a minimal return. Last season, Wilson pitched 76 2/3 innings, with six wins and no losses. One of his best games was a 10-6 win over the Padres late in August, in which he worked four scoreless innings of emergency long relief and struck out four, allowing only three baserunners. Wilson ended his season with some of the best numbers of his career: a 2.58 ERA, a1.10 WHIP, a 4.17 FIP. He’ll make around $1.5 million in his first trip through arbitration in 2024, but he’s a decent bargain at that price. Wilson needn’t be the centerpiece of a trade, though. Joey Wiemer, a loose cannon at the plate and in the outfield, still has a lot of potential and could be a huge acquisition. Weimer is a really strong hitter, but he struggled a lot throughout the season. Looking at his numbers, his best month at the plate was in June (.233/.337/.512) and that gives a small glimpse into what kind of player he is. Even with the poor numbers in July and August, Wiemer crushed it against lefties (.267/.298/.517) through the whole season, which is a huge asset to the lineup. He also has outstanding defensive metrics, with five total Defensive Runs Saved in 1,026 innings as a rookie, showing that he has room to grow offensively and defensively with plenty of years left to play. The Brewers’ surplus of young outfielders may be the blessing the Twins seek. With Kepler being a free agent next year, being 31 years old, and the unknown of Buxton, contributing to the overall inconsistency of the outfield, a player like Weimer could solve many problems for the team. Over at Brewer Fanatic, writer Ryan Pollak even made the case Thursday afternoon that Wiemer will become trade bait. One pipe dream would be to acquire Corbin Burnes in a trade for Polanco. There is still uncertainty as to whether the Brewers are looking to trade Burnes, but based on the information out there, it would take at least $250 million for the Brewers to retain him in free agency after 2024. He’ll make in excess of $15 million via arbitration in 2024, an onerous amount for the Brewers at their expected payroll level The Twins could “rent” him for a year, but the Brewers know what he’s worth, and the package for Burnes would likely include a lot more than Polanco, such as the Twins’ 2024 competitive-balance draft pick or prospects. The front office has been known to shock the fan base in the offseason, so they could shock us again, but it’s more than likely that the Twins would rather hold onto the prospects and trade for controllable assets that would provide long-term solutions, like Wilson and Wiemer. With so many things up in the air, it’s really hard to say which way the Twins front office will go, but one thing for sure is to use Polanco and/or Kepler as trade pieces at some point to get the pitching that they need. It’s all part of the plan. View full article

Seattle just traded their 3B to AZ for a back up C and pitching prospect. They were looking for a second base upgrade before but this makes it even more important for them to trade a starting Pitcher to Minnesota for a package around Polanco. The pitcher acquired may not replace the starter we acquire but will help give them more depth. https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2023/11/dbacks-trade-seby-zavala-mariners-catcher.html A deal with trader Dipoto in Seattle will get done.

The Twins have to decide how to navigate a reduced payroll, and Jorge Polanco is an option to ship out and save some money. They also could use some reinforcements at first base. Could these two issues solve each other? Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco has cemented himself as a piece of the Twins' core. First, an All-Star caliber shortstop, then more recently, the everyday starting second baseman. Could Jorge Polanco make another change in position to address a roster need and remain in Minnesota? Edouard Julien is a core piece of the Twins lineup for years to come. Although his defense at second base remains suspect, he seemed to improve as the year went on, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins completely trusted him to cover the position to begin 2024. Brooks Lee also looms in Triple-A, with second base among the positions he could fill when he’s ready to debut. With Polanco still in the mix, his contract makes him a candidate to be shipped out due to the redundancy of his position. Switching him to first base could completely change the situation. Polanco isn’t the typical first base player archetype, but the Twins are no strangers to filling the position with nontraditional players. Luis Arraez played there in 2022 plenty, and even Alex Kirilloff is far from the prototypical slugging corner bat. The fact is that Polanco is a switch-hitter capable of putting up an offensive line that’s 15-20% better than league average. That should play just about anywhere. For as much of a question as Julien’s defense is, Polanco has been far from a Gold Glove second baseman since he transitioned from shortstop. 2023 was his best season by Defensive Runs Saved with a +1 mark. His range continues to decline, as noted by his -7 Outs Above Average measured by Statcast. Despite Polanco's solid defensive rep, going from him to Julien at second base might not be the drop-off someone would suspect. It’s hard to say Polanco would be a net positive defensively at first base, but with range being his main limiting factor, it could be worth a shot. It’s also possible that moving to a position where he doesn’t have to cover as much ground could help him stay on the field more. His hamstring issues in 2023 resulted from running out of the batters' box, but it’s fair to say that playing first base could take some pressure off his ankle, which has been an issue for years now. Should Polanco be a trustworthy first baseman, the Twins will have solved multiple problems. He can be the right-handed platoon with Kirilloff (if he's healthy) while still moving around DH and other infield positions. If Kirilloff’s injury woes persist, Polanco’s ability to switch hit would make him an everyday option if needed. The Twins could keep a franchise player on the roster and not have to go out looking for additional help at first base. Even at $10.5m in 2024 and $12m in 2025, Polanco’s contract with first base in his repertoire would be worth it. First base seems to be a priority this winter, and Jorge Polanco’s salary looks extraneous. Rather than dumping Polanco for what would likely be a disappointing return, the Twins should get creative and see if he can make yet another defensive transition. Do you agree? View full article

The Twins need a Sonny Gray replacement and have an upcoming logjam in the infield. The Seattle Mariners have a wealth of starting pitching. Could the two teams match up this offseason in a deal? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Mariners were reportedly willing to discuss trading some of their young pitching last trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why on their depth chart. With several younger arms emerging to complement some quality veteran options, they’re in a position where they may feel comfortable making a big move. The Twins have become surprising candidates for a big move in recent years. Perhaps the two sides could agree on a win-win deal this winter. A few arms in Seattle can likely be ruled out immediately. Luis Castillo just began a five-year, $108m deal that takes him off the table. Robbie Ray was injured last season in year three of a five-year, $115m deal. His eventual return in 2024 may be a factor in the Mariners looking to deal an arm. It can also be assumed that this bunch has no cheap options. If a deal develops, the Twins will be parting with serious capital. It’s worth looking at each potential option and why they may be enticing to the Twins front office. Logan Gilbert With almost 400 innings in the last two seasons with low to mid 3s ERAs, Gilbert has established himself as a front-end starting pitcher at age 26. The only reason the Mariners would even consider parting ways with such an asset is that they have so many other quality pitchers who are even younger. Gilbert is an established workhorse that could bring tremendous value. Controlled through 2028, Gilbert will be in arbitration into his 30s. Whichever organization Gilbert is in will control him for nearly all of his prime, and some believe he's capable of picking up a few more strikeouts, which would bring him to an even higher level. Gilbert would immediately fill Sonny Gray's shoes as the #2 behind Pablo Lopez, and the Twins would feel great penciling him into game two of a playoff series. George Kirby Kirby was more effective than Gilbert in 2023, throwing 190 innings with a 3.35 ERA. He’s certainly lived up to his first-round pedigree, as Kirby attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix and threw seven different pitches in 2023 at least once. The Twins have seen firsthand that when Kirby is on, he can make easy work of opposing lineups, and like Gilbert, there may be another level to his game when it comes to strikeouts as he matures. Kirby would also be a legitimate #2 behind Lopez, and his pedigree includes tremendous health and dominance on the mound. At just 25 with team control through 2029, Kirby may cost even more than Gilbert, and it’s possible he’s not on the trade block at all. Bryce Miller Miller is certainly a step down from the top two in Seattle, but there’s a lot to like. His profile resemble's Joe Ryan's fastball-heavy approach, but Miller averages over 95 mph on the heater. His offspeed was a work in progress, but he sometimes dominated despite his decline in the 2nd half as he neared his innings cap. Miller finished the season with just over 130 innings, creating a floor to build off of in 2024. Being less established, Miller should cost less, but his six years of team control still won’t make him cheap. Other Options Seattle’s rotation also consists of younger names such as Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock, who only briefly debuted but carry pedigree and at least brief periods of success. It’s unlikely the Twins would take on such pitchers, but you never know what they may see that they could improve. Marco Gonzalez is also still in Seattle, and despite his season-ending early due to forearm issues, he’s been a solid pitcher for the entirety of his career. Should the Twins look in that direction, he could be a cheap back end of the rotation option. Cost The Mariners need more exciting options, particularly at second base, for the near future. This makes the Twins a perfect trade match. Edouard Julien has proven he’s a long-term solution at the position, which raises questions regarding players such as Jorge Polanco and top prospect Brooks Lee. With Polanco, as Twins fans know, the Mariners would get an immediate impact player at second base. Even with a reasonable $12m club option for 2025, the Twins would likely have to add significant prospect capital for someone on Gilbert or Kirby’s level. It would likely have to include a name like Emmanuel Rodriguez and other quality names. Brooks Lee could make up a significant part of a return if the Mariners are interested in him. It would be a big gamble on the Twins' part, but it could prove worthwhile if the Twins get a controllable Sonny Gray replacement in return. A trade with Seattle for a controllable starting pitcher would likely be shopping at the high end of the trade market. Sonny Gray’s possible departure can’t be understated, and this is where the Twins have to look. A trade with the Mariners would surely cost several well-known names. Is it worth it to pick up a potential front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher? View full article

MLB Network's Jon Morosi thinks there is a "very strong chance" the Twins will trade Jorge Polanco this winter (Video clip below). He said there is industry speculation that Polanco is very much on the market and that he will be traded before next season. Eduoard Julien and Royce Lewis have emerged as infield options for the Twins and that makes Polanco more expendable. What is Polanco's value with two years of control at team-friendly prices? Who is more likely to be traded Kepler or Polanco?

Friday night was the non-tender deadline and the Minnesota Twins made a couple of moves that surprised me. With news of the payroll being scaled back some, I figured Kyle Farmer was as good as gone either by trade or non-tender. Nope, he's still around. Another surprise was that Jovani Moran needs Tommy John surgery and so the Twins decided to remove him (and Ronny Henriquez) off the 40-man roster. Here is my reaction to these moves. View full video

Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler are both prime candidates to be traded this offseason, but their demand on the market will be dictated by how needy teams view their relative appeal versus the free agent classes at second base and right field. Let's see how they stack up. Image courtesy of Jeffrey Becker and Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Twins recently confirmed that they'll be looking to trim payroll this offseason, which may create some challenges as they aim to address a set of clear needs on the roster. One of the most straightforward ways for the front office to create some spending flexibility is by trading one or both of Jorge Polanco and Max Kepler. The longtime Twins mainstays are both under contract for around $10 million apiece next season; the club could clear as much as $20 million from the 2024 payroll by moving them and their salaries. Adding to the appeal of this idea: the emergence of standout rookies (Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner) at second base and right field, and the fact that both Polanco and Kepler boast solid trade value. That latter point is key, because as we've seen, this Twins front office isn't going to trade guys they like just for the sake of doing so. Both Polanco and Kepler are coming off solid seasons and, more importantly, the free agent alternatives at their positions aren't very compelling. The value Minnesota might get back in a trade for one or both of these veterans will be dictated by how much 2B/RF-needy teams are willing to give up, and that will be determined by how much more attractive Polanco and Kepler (and their contracts) are compared to signing a free agent for only money. Here's a look at how both players would rank on against the free agent classes at their respective positions, to give you an idea of the options being weighed by these teams. Right Field: Max Kepler vs. The Market Kepler's trade value: Following a breakthrough second half that re-established him as an All-Star caliber talent, Kepler has one remaining season under contract at $10 million. The short-term control could be viewed as a downside, but teams might also value the flexibility of a one-year deal versus locking into a 30+ year-old free agent for several years. In listing its position-by-position free agents, MLB.com ranks players by fWAR over the past two seasons (2022-23), so we'll add Kepler into that mix using the same lens. What we find is that Kepler outranks every single free agent right fielder, and is also the youngest of the bunch: Max Kepler (31 years old, 4.6 WAR) Teoscar Hernández (31, 4.3) Hunter Renfroe (32, 3.1) Jason Heyward (34, 1.8) Randal Grichuk (32, 0.4) Wil Myers (33, 0.3) Tyler Naquin (33, 0.1) Kevin Pillar (35, 0.1) Kole Calhoun (36, -1.3) Only Hernández, whom MLB Trade Rumors projected to get an $80 million contract coming off a fairly underwhelming season, is even in Kepler's range in terms of value over the past two years. And that's with Kepler being quite disappointing offensively for a large stretch of that period. The drop-off is especially steep for any team specifically targeting a left-handed hitting right fielder. Heyward, Myers, Naquin and Calhoun are not appealing targets at this stage of their careers – at least in anything resembling a full-time role. Kepler is the clear standout of the pack here. Second Base: Jorge Polanco vs. The Market Polanco's trade value: Polanco's contractual situation is even more favorable than Kepler's – he's controllable for two more years with a $12.5 million team option in 2025. Polanco has been an extremely consistent hitter, with an OPS+ of 110 or better in each of the past five full MLB seasons. Teams are sure to be wary of Polo's recent injury history, but a review of the free agent market at second base casts his risk level in a different light. Here's how Polanco ranks against this year's class by 2022-23 fWAR: Elvis Andrus (35 years old, 4.6 WAR) Jorge Polanco (30, 3.3) Whit Merrifield (35, 3.0) Tony Kemp (32, 1.5) Kolten Wong (33, 1.5) Adam Frazier (32, 1.3) Jonathan Schoop (32, 1.2) Rougned Odor (30, 1.0) Josh Harrison (36, 0.8) Hanser Alberto (31, -0.7) Leury García (33, -1.1) Pretty much everyone below the Merrifield line is a clear-cut backup-caliber player at this point, and no one's idea of an assertive solution to a middle-infield need. So then you've got Polanco near the top going against two mid-30s players in decline. Andrus technically edges Polanco in fWAR, but that's mostly because of a random 3.5-WAR last season that's an outlier from everything else he's done in the past six years. Merrifield has more appeal as a flex player than a full-time second baseman. No one in this class comes close to offering the offensive floor or ceiling of Polanco. With two reasonably priced years remaining under contract and a more consistent track record, I actually think he compares even more favorably against his class than Kepler against right fielders. Unsurprisingly, rumors are already circulating that the Twins intend to shop Polanco around this winter. Ultimately, his value in a trade will be dependent on how confident the team acquiring him is that Polanco can stay healthy. The veteran infielder played in only 80 games this year due to injury issues, and often looked hobbled down the stretch, although he was able to play in every playoff game. Even with the risk that comes attached to him, Polanco compares favorably to aging players like Andrus and Merrifield in free agency. Kepler's drawbacks are also healthily outweighed by his strengths in comparing him to the right field market. As the Twins reach the end of the road with these two long-tenured fixtures, they find a very favorable offseason environment for talking trade. Both players figure to be in high demand. View full article

Jon Morosi of MLB Network reported that people around the industry believe there’s a very strong chance the Minnesota Twins will trade Jorge Polanco. I discussed what I would target in a trade for Polanco, his trade value and some considerations that might make him more attractive on the market. This is going to be a very interesting offseason. View full video

The Twins are cutting payroll. Here are six bad impacts - and one good one. Image courtesy of © Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports Two days ago, we framed the Twins payroll situation, emphasizing that before the individual roster decisions needed to be made, some more significant decisions needed to be made. The top one was what the Twins would do about their expiring $54M TV deal. What is clear is that $55M in gross revenue is at stake. The Twins (and most MLB clubs) claim they spend slightly over 50% of their gross revenue on players' salaries. That could mean an estimated $30M drop in payroll. That's the bad news. The really bad news came yesterday: that is the plan. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins Opening Day payroll is likely in the $125-$140M range, down roughly $15-30M from last year's ~$155M Opening Day Payroll. If you play with Twins Daily's Payroll Blueprint for even five minutes, you'll see just how limiting that is because their default payroll is already $115-$125M. Here are the six crummiest results you'll find. 1. See Ya, Sonny The Twins were likely to be measured chasing free-agent starting pitching; they have been ever since Falvey took charge of the Twins in 2017. To return to last year's (admittedly) excellent standard, they must sign at least one pitcher that can replace the American League ERA leader, Sonny Gray. That's not going to happen now. Today's Offseason Handbook story details the starting pitching market and categorizes players as "too hot" (the Twins won't pay that much), "too cold" (the Twins can afford them, but they don't replace Gray), or "just right" (they can replace Gray but could be expensive). Today's news means they're targeting pitchers that only need a one-year contract, all of whom will fall in the "too cold" or below category. They could sign a pitcher at the level of Kenta Maeda, or a riskier pitcher with higher upside on a make-good contract, or a veteran #4 or #5 pitcher who can eat some innings. But whomever they choose, they aren't replacing Gray - or anyone even near his level - via free agency. 2. So-so Center Fielder and Blowing Off Batters Dreaming of adding that big, right-handed bat this winter? Keep dreaming. Unless payroll is subtracted in some other way (which we'll get to), this cut only leaves money for one mediocre bat to be added. That one is likely spoken for: the Twins need a center fielder. With Michael A. Taylor becoming a free agent and Byron Buxton's health in question, center field is the one "to do" that must get done. This payroll cut means it won't be a high-end option like Cody Bellinger or Japan's Jung Hoo Lee. The Twins are likely limited to precisely the level of Taylor or below while hoping that some of their prospects, like Austin Martin, challenge for the role by midyear. 3. Desirable Duo The Twins want Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco on the roster next year. The veteran duo will not need to be moved to hit the new payroll level. But trading either would give the team an additional $10M for other needs. So, while the Twins won't actively shop Polanco and Kepler, they won't need to. Polanco is more valuable than any other second baseman (indeed, middle infielder) free agent. Max Kepler would be a top-10 hitter in this thin free-agent market. Teams looking to get better are already asking about them. In addition, any team the Twins approach about a trade (for, perhaps, a starting pitcher) will ask for Polanco or Kepler as a possible return. So, this cut doesn't mean they'll be moved; I'd still put the chances as less than 50% that either will be traded. But it does mean the Twins front office will have a better reason to listen. 4. Farewell Farmer The Twins have one borderline case for arbitration, and payroll cuts are not good news for borderline arbitration cases. Offering Kyle Farmer arbitration guarantees him approximately $6-7M to be a utility player. The Twins now need that money for a less luxurious role, like a center fielder. Farmer will either be non-tendered by the Twins next week before the non-tender deadline (11/18) or traded to a team that needs a shortstop, the same way the Twins did when they acquired Farmer last year. Either way, he won't be on next year's roster. 5. Harvesting the Farm Don't get too attached to your favorite Twins' prospect because this cut means it's much more likely they'll get traded away this year. If the Twins can't replace their pitching or center fielder with money, they'll resort to trading prospects. The good news is that this has often worked well for the Twins. Jake Odorizzi, Gray, Maeda, and Taylor came from trading away prospects. 6. Foul Up Fan Support After waiting almost 20 years for a postseason win, Twins fans finally experienced a postseason run. When the Twins won that first game of the Wild Card Round and then advanced, tickets that cost $4 for Game 1 of the Wild Card were selling for $100 for Game 3 of the ALDS. That support, I'm sure the Twins hoped, would transform into season ticket holders. But the easiest way to squash any support from the Twins fan base is to threaten their team by withholding resources. Minnesotans are too familiar with that song after hearing it for 60+ years and multiple ownership groups. This storyline has plagued the Twins throughout their career and is the single most damaging narrative to marketing the team. And now the team is reinforcing it. 7. The Silver Lining is Streaming One piece of good news: the Twins clearly understand the value of streaming their games on the internet. Streaming rights have been the source of this conflict, ending their TV deal. If they're sacrificing tens of millions of revenue, they think they have identified avenues for fans to stream content in 2024 that have not existed for years. Whatever the new TV solution is, those fans who have cut the cord will get to watch their Twins in 2024 and beyond. It'll just be a more financially slimmed-down version of the team. View full article

The Minnesota Twins are reducing their payroll in 2024, but with several contracts coming off the books this offseason, they still have some room to make additions this offseason. Here's a breakdown of what the budget looks like based off the reported payroll target. View full video

The two long-tenured Twins are now under contract for 2024. That doesn't necessarily mean either will be playing in Minnesota next year. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports In a move that shouldn't have caught anyone off-guard, the Minnesota Twins announced on Thursday that they are exercising their respective team options for 2024 on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco. Among current Twins players, only Byron Buxton has been around as long as these two long-time fixtures, who are now locked into their contracts for the coming season. Both have their question marks, to be sure. Polanco has dealt with continual lower-body injuries in the past couple of seasons, and Kepler's performance was perpetually underwhelming up until the midway point of 2023. Still, at the prices their options entail -- $10 million for Kepler, $10.5 million for Polo, these decisions were truly no-brainers. Each player would command far more on the open market, and as such, will draw trade interest if the Twins are so inclined. This procedural move sets the stage for an offseason that will likely be dominated by trade speculation around both Polanco and Kepler. The right fielder and second baseman are proven commodities who were both arguably made redundant by the emergence of standout rookies this year -- specifically, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner. Kepler's offensive breakout and outstanding right field defense make him a strong asset. Polanco has been one of the most consistent offensive performers in the middle infield across the league. Shortcomings aside, these are good players still in their primes, with short-term and relatively low-cost commitments. That will make them attractive to other clubs, but also makes them attractive to the Twins, who clearly like both players a lot beyond what they bring to the field. They also like depth. The future for both Kepler and Polanco remains to be seen, but for now, as expected, they are under contract to play for the Minnesota Twins in 2024. View full article

Minnesota's championship window has been thrust open. The front office's decisions this offseason could prove pivotal in dictating whether the Twins take the next step or stumble. Here's a primer on what lies ahead, including arbitration decisions, pending free agents, and 40-man roster considerations. The Twins are in good shape heading into this offseason. They just won the AL Central behind a youth-fueled surge in the second half, and made noise in the playoffs for the first time in almost 20 years. They're able to bring back a majority of their roster, and could field a contending team without making a single move. The front office has a stable base to build from as they aim to elevate the Twins to a commanding presence in the American League. But they also have some challenges in front of them. Looking ahead to a high-stakes offseason, here's a rundown of key things to know about the roster, the payroll, and big decisions that loom on the horizon. TEAM OPTIONS AND ARBITRATION DECISIONS The first thing the front office will need to sort out, before figuring out who they want to add, is who they want to keep. Many players (like Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton) are under guaranteed contract, but in other cases the Twins can exercise optional control over players via either contract options or arbitration. (Arb estimates courtesy of MLB Trade Rumors.) Team Options for 2024: Jorge Polanco ($10.5M) Max Kepler ($10M) Arbitration Eligible in 2024: Kyle Farmer ($6.6M) Willi Castro ($3.2M) Caleb Thielbar ($3M) Ryan Jeffers ($2.3M) Alex Kirilloff: ($1.7M) Jordan Luplow: ($1.6M) Jorge Alcala: ($1M) Nick Gordon: ($1M) Plenty of no-brainers among this crop, but also some tricky decisions. It's fair to say several players on the list are trade candidates, with Farmer and Kepler standing out as most likely candidates. PENDING FREE AGENTS These are the members of the 2023 Twins who are set to hit the open market after the World Series concludes, starting with the reigning team MVP: Sonny Gray, SP Michael A. Taylor, CF Emilio Pagán, RP Kenta Maeda, SP Donovan Solano, 1B Joey Gallo, 1B/OF With the exception of Gallo, these all feel like players the Twins need to either re-sign or replace in their roles. Finding a way to offset the (presumed) loss of Gray atop the rotation is priority No. 1, but it will also be important to develop strong depth and contingencies behind Buxton in CF and Kirilloff and 1B, as Taylor and Solano provided this year. 2024 ROSTER AND PAYROLL PROJECTION The table below shows a very-early layout of the Twins 2024 roster as it currently projects, absent any offseason moves. For now, this projection assumes that the team brings back Kepler, Polanco, and all of their arb-eligible players sans Luplow and Gordon. As you can see, the baseline payroll in this scenario is a little under $120M, or about $30 million short of their 2023 payroll. Whether spending will increase, decrease, or stay the same is a rather complex topic for another day. But in any case, there should be some spending money available and the Twins can easily open up more. 40-MAN ROSTER AND THE RULE 5 DRAFT In order to protect their newly-eligible prospects from the Rule 5 draft, and to make room for new offseason additions, the Twins will need to create some space on the 40-man roster. They got a head-start on that process over the weekend by outrighting Andrew Stevenson and José De León. That leaves them at 36 – subtracting all soon-to-be-free agents – which is a pretty good place to start. Especially since there are still several players still on the roster who could be removed without much trepidation (Luplow, Oliver Ortega, etc.). The Twins are going to need some of that room, and not only for hopeful outside additions via free agency and trades. Several minor-leagues are entering the phase of eligibility for the Rule 5 draft, which means Minnesota must add them to the 40-man roster by mid-November or risk losing them to another team. These players include: Jair Camargo, C Austin Martin, OF Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF Yunior Severino, IF DaShawn Keirsey Jr., OF Michael Helman, IF Cody Laweryson, RHP Jose Salas, IF Chris Williams, 1B I'd argue that at least the top three on that list are absolute must-adds, and you can make strong cases for several others. These are the decisions and opportunities that will present themselves once the offseason gets underway. And it's not too far off. Make sure you stay tuned into Twins Daily all winter for unrivaled coverage of all the Hot Stove action. View full article

The season is officially over, but for the Minnesota Twins front office, their work is just beginning. Here are 6 key priorities for the Twins as they look to build on their success from 2023. Image courtesy of Stephen Brashear-USA TODAY Sports The Twins front office is in a fairly good place heading into the 2023-24 offseason, with a lot of continuity built into their division-winning roster and relatively few blatantly obvious needs. But they do have needs. Here at Twins Daily, the baseball season never ends. We'll be firing up end-to-end offseason coverage soon, with planned weekly themes in November plus cool bonus content for TD caretakers. Sign up now to make sure you don't miss out! The following top priorities will guide much of the discussion throughout the coming months Here are the boxes the front office must check this winter: ☐ Find a front-end starter to replace Sonny Gray. The Twins will extend Gray a qualifying offer. Presumably Gray will turn it down. From there, it becomes very difficult to see the two sides coming back together, though it's not impossible. (See: Carl Pavano, 2011.) That means the Twins front office is tasked with replacing their 2023 team MVP. Gray is going to leave some big shoes to fill as the co-ace who paired with Pablo López to lead one of the best rotations in franchise history. He ranked third in the majors in ERA, trailing only the two surefire Cy Young winners (Blake Snell and Gerrit Cole). Gray was individually worth more than five wins, according to FanGraphs. He was also the team's best pitcher in 2022. It's a big void that will be tough to offset. But the good news is that the front office should have considerable money to spend – their current projected 2024 payroll is at least $30 million lower than this year's – and plenty of intriguing trade chips in their overloaded position-player corps. The latter is especially noteworthy, since this regime has shown a clear knack for trading to acquire frontline starters, with a track record that includes Kenta Maeda, López, and of course Gray. ☐ Gamble on another high-upside starting pitcher. Even if the Twins are able to once again pull off a high-scale move to acquire a high-end starter, they shouldn't stop there. The planned 2023 rotation depth included not just Gray, but also Maeda and Tyler Mahle, who are free agents as well. Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Louie Varland are nice to have on hand, but the front office should be targeting high-upside additions to raise the ceiling on this unit. The presence of so many proven solid options gives them a stable enough floor to take some risks, which is a fun place to be. The Twins might consider pursuing an opportunistic trade – like, say, for disgruntled Blue Jays starter Alek Manoah – or targeting one of the numerous buy-low candidates in free agency, a group that will include Frankie Montas, Jack Flaherty and James Paxton. Pete Maki's pitching program instills confidence that the Twins can mine some gold, and suddenly Minnesota is a rather attractive destination for starters. ☐ Make decisions on long-tenured veterans. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco: they've been around longer than almost anyone in the clubhouse, and they are both coming off quality seasons (albeit with some ups and downs). The Twins have team options on both for 2024, and it's all but assured those options be exercised. That doesn't mean they will be back. Both Kepler and Polanco could draw significant trade interest for a team that – as we've discussed – needs to backfill some pitching. Meanwhile, the Twins have young talent pushing these longtime mainstays. On another front, the Twins must make a decision regarding their other longest-tenured player: Byron Buxton. While trading the hobbled 29-year-old isn't an option, the front office needs to reach a firm stance on what they can expect from Buxton in 2024, and orchestrate their roster-building accordingly. ☐ Figure out the plan at first base. Alex Kirilloff is sadly headlong down the same path as Buxton – too frequently injured to be relied upon from a planning standpoint. His upcoming shoulder labrum surgery leaves the future of first base in a state of limbo. One plan would be to go out and target a new player who could potentially take over as full-time first baseman if Kirilloff can't go. Another would be to think creatively about internal options. For example, top prospect Brooks Lee looks ready to go and currently has no clear path to the big-league roster, with a crowded infield picture. But if first base is open... ☐ Re-evaluate the hitting program. To their credit, David Popkins and the hitters pulled things together in the second half. Buoyed by the immediate success of rookies like Royce Lewis, Edouard Julien and Matt Wallner, Minnesota's offense was among the league's most potent after the break Still, their whiff-heavy profile continued to make them an especially boom-or-bust unit, and ultimately led to their exit from the playoffs. After setting a new MLB strikeout record as an offense, Minnesota struck out 28 times and scored three total runs in Games 3 and 4 against Houston. It doesn't sound like the Twins are inclined to fully disassociate from this offensive identity – "I would rather have a guy have a great at-bat, go deep into a count and possibly strikeout, but give us a chance to actually give us a baserunner or actually look for a ball in the middle of the zone and pulverize it," said Derek Falvey – but they need to find some balance. Whether that means shaking up the roster a bit, targeting players who specialize in hitting for contact, or making alterations to their training and instruction programs (though it sounds like the main coaches will be back), there are several ways the Twins could approach this. ☐ Extend at least one young building block. The future is here. This is a great moment to lock down some stability, cost assurance, and long-term control. The three rookies mentioned above are all candidates for extensions that will provide them with financial security and the Twins with a bit of extended control. (I favored trying to opportunistically strike a deal like this with Lewis last spring, but alas, that ship sailed.) The Twins could also consider extending one of their younger pitchers, like Ryan, Ober or Jhoan Duran. Another option would be to take the Rays approach and strike a long-term contract with a top prospect who's yet to debut, such as Lee. The bottom line is that, with relatively few major outside needs to address this offseason, the Twins can look inward and aim to take care of business that sets up their proven internal core for longevity and success. View full article

Here’s an overview of some of the early offseason timeline and some important decisions facing the Twins over the next month or so. Among the topics discussed are a Sonny Gray qualifying offer, the team options on Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco, Kyle Farmer’s projected arbitration salary and prospects who need to be protected from the Rule 5 Draft. View full video