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Matthew Trueblood

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  1. What I'm really trying to tell you is that Lewis might never belong in a regular big-league lineup again. He needs to be open to position changes because the team is (rightfully) no longer holding his old one open for him. Moving him around isn't about finding a way to get his bat in the lineup, from the team's perspetive. It's about him still having a career, because versatility is one way bad players can hang around a while.
  2. Boy, I just don't see what you're seeing in what Tom wrote. It seems like a very clear-eyed, even-handed take on a player in a very real career crisis! You're sort of acting like Tom is making up the major climb that now lies before Royce, but look at this more reasonably. Lewis has been an atrocious hitter for the last 21 months now, going all the way to August 2024. Lee isn't a viable shortstop, but he's hitting enough that they need to keep giving him some chance to show whether he can stick. Third base is probably his best spot. The team sent Lewis down and installed Lee at his old position! This isn't some flight of fancy; it's what the actual big-league team just did. I think you've gotta grapple with reality a little more here. Royce doesn't have a clear path back to the majors and his most likely one is not as the everyday third baseman. He needs versatility, or a new defensive home where he fits better into someone's plans, even if it's not the Twins'. I don't think any other org is out there hoping to pounce on him for a full-time job at third, either.
  3. I disagree with you about Kreidler, and maybe Gray, too. I believe in Keaschall's bat long-term, but he's still in a tough adjustment phase. I don't think Lee is ever going to be a consistently average-plus hitter. I think the far superior defense should be plenty of motivation for them to keep using Kreidler and Gray in all advantageous matchups (Kreidler every day, Gray against all righties) for a while, to find out what they have there. I'm fine with letting Arcia ride the bench, mostly, but if he keeps hitting like this, you might need to fit him in for OFFENSIVE purposes—and he's certainly a better defender than Keaschall at second, anyway.
  4. Absolutely. I think the best defensive alignment they could field, by far, is Gray at third, Kreidler at short and Arcia at second. I wonder if we see that a few more times in the days ahead.
  5. Give me good results over bad results every time, but I will say, he hasn't been right this month, either. The quality of contact isn't there. The directionality is still off. And behind the scenes, neither Keaschall nor the Twins are satisfied with the progress.
  6. Hitting .270 without power or defensive value is a good way to end up either starting for a very bad team or riding the shuttle between the majors and AAA for a good one...
  7. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images The plate appearance totals don't match up perfectly, but it's as close as you could ask it to be. Heading into Memorial Day, Luke Keaschall has played exactly 49 regular-season games in 2026, which is the same number he played in 2025. This time, he knows the daily grind of the majors better. This time, he hasn't had his progress interrupted by injuries. One would hope that he would be proving himself a robust part of the Twins' future, even if he couldn't quite replicate last year's tremendous rookie showing. Instead, the comparison of his freshman and (incomplete) sophomore efforts looks like this: 2025: 207 PA, .302/.382/.445, 4 HR, 19 BB, 29 SO 2026: 201 PA, .233/.318/.307, 1 HR, 19 BB, 32 SO He remains very good at putting the ball in play, but all the sting has been sapped from Keaschall's stick. He didn't exactly obliterate the ball last year, but his average exit velocity and his hard-hit rate are notably down this year. He overachieved in terms of hitting for both power and average last season, but even at a fundamental quality-of-contact level, he's seen a real degradation this year. Over the weekend, he was benched on consecutive days, as manager Derek Shelton elected to give him the same treatment he gave Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis during their own profound offensive struggles—right before each was shuttled off to the minors. Keaschall is younger, has hit better and is more clearly a part of the team's vision for the future than either Lewis or Wallner, so he's not likely to be optioned any time soon. As Shelton commits to making playing time a question of merit and production, though, Keaschall is already losing out. Brooks Lee, Ryan Kreidler, Orlando Arcia and Tristan Gray may not be Murderer's Row, but they all have substantially better offensive numbers than Keaschall has this year—and Keaschall is, by a wide margin, the worst defensive infielder in the group. All this is fairly shocking, because Keaschall actually came to camp this year having improved in what looked like the one area that would limit him as a hitter: bat speed. Last season, his average swing speed was just 66.9 miles per hour, according to Statcast—one of the lowest marks in the league. It's not possible to be any kind of power hitter with so little bat speed, so it looked as though Keaschall would need to use his speed and good placement of the ball even to consistently generate doubles in the majors. That he ran into four homers in a third of a season's playing time felt semi-miraculous. In theory, he's made a major upgrade this spring. His average swing speed is now 69.2 MPH. That's still well below average, but batters who find the barrel often can produce power at that level. Spencer Horwitz, Michael Busch, Will Smith, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and other guys who have proved themselves capable of 20-plus homers a year live in that range. Admittedly, none of those are great comps for Keaschall, in terms of body type, handedness or bat path, but the point stands. You can have a pretty high ceiling as a hitter, once you get to 69 MPH or so. In practice, this has been nothing but bad for Keaschall—at least so far. Bat speed isn't primarily about the force you impart on the baseball because of that speed; you can generate just as hard a batted ball by squaring it up well. Bat speed matters, instead, because it lets you decide later and pull the trigger on the swing later—but so far, Keaschall has had no luck in redeeming that advantage for real value. With no noticeable or measurable change in his swing path and a significant increase in his bat speed, our default expectation should be that Keaschall would make contact farther in front of his body this year than he did in 2025. Instead, his contact point is almost identical to where it was last year. That tells us that he's making proper theoretical use of the advantage he's gained by swinging faster; he's deciding later. In practice, though, that's creating more problems than it's solving. Here's Keaschall handling a fastball down the middle the way a hitter like him should, last August. ZzY4bmxfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdsWUFnQlZBMWNBQ2xVS1VBQUhDUVlIQUZnQlZBSUFWMXdDVXdJQkJnVlNWQWRW.mp4 This is Keaschall as we all came to know him as a rookie: direct to the ball, frighteningly accurate with the barrel, and (perhaps most importantly) consistently on time. Now, here he is against another fat heater, last month. bGJ3a0JfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlZkVlhGVURVVkFBQVZFQ1V3QUhVdzVRQUFOVFYxY0FCbEJSVWdBTlZ3VldCQUlD.mp4 The temptation, when you see a batter foul a fastball off to the opposite field, is to say they were late on it. Watch closely, though. Keaschall wasn't late here. Rather, he was a hair early, in the timing and the shape of his newly accelerated swing. Set the moments at which he made contact on each pitch side-by-side, and you can see what I mean. Keaschall's arms are actually more extended in the still on the right. He misses the barrel and clips the ball with the high/outside part of his bat because he's already rotated a hair too far. This is normal, if a bit unfortunate, for a hitter who's newly added some bat speed. It's great to swing faster, but you have to learn to stay on time, too. That's a quick glimpse at the fight not to be too early, once you get faster. Now, here's how you can end up a little too late. Here are two cutters away from Keaschall, in early counts. One from last September: b0daM1hfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3aFdBRkVBVkFZQUQxSUxWZ0FIQTFRREFBQlRBbFlBQlFjQ0F3b0ZCbEpWQUF0Vw==.mp4 And one from April: cU93MFFfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdZSEFsUlFVUVlBRGdNSFZRQUhWUTlmQUZrR0FBTUFBUWNHVkZCWEFRRUJCd1JU.mp4 Keaschall hit both balls pretty squarely, but as any modern hitting coach will tell you, the difference between a squarely-hit ball pulled in the air and one up the middle on the ground is the difference between payday and pain. Keaschall got around the first of these offerings; he couldn't do so on the second. He's swinging faster this year, but you can't just swing fast; you have to swing on time. Here's the moment at which Keaschall first begins the descent phase of his leg kick—when his swing really begins, as opposed to his load—on each pitch. Last year, he was starting that part of his move before the pitch left the pitcher's hand. This year, it's more often coming just after release. The difference seems tiny, until you remember that the projectile he's trying to hit (at just the right angle, mind you) is coming in on the north side of 90 miles per hour and that the space in which he can produce the better kind of batted ball runs perhaps six inches from front to back. Again, in the long run, this should still be a good thing. Being able to decide later should yield better swing decisions, and if Keaschall decides he still needs to cheat a bit more to produce the contact he wants, he can now sacrifice some contact for power that was unreachable when his swing was one of the five or six slowest in the game. There are no guarantees about getting this evolution right, of course. Plenty of players have gotten permanently broken by trying to shore up some weakness, insufficiently cognizant of the costs of that improvement or simply unable to pay them without going talent-broke. On balance, though, it's fair to stay optimistic about Keaschall as a hitter. This adjustment period has been painful, but it's part of the process of going from good to (knock on wood) great. View full article
  8. The plate appearance totals don't match up perfectly, but it's as close as you could ask it to be. Heading into Memorial Day, Luke Keaschall has played exactly 49 regular-season games in 2026, which is the same number he played in 2025. This time, he knows the daily grind of the majors better. This time, he hasn't had his progress interrupted by injuries. One would hope that he would be proving himself a robust part of the Twins' future, even if he couldn't quite replicate last year's tremendous rookie showing. Instead, the comparison of his freshman and (incomplete) sophomore efforts looks like this: 2025: 207 PA, .302/.382/.445, 4 HR, 19 BB, 29 SO 2026: 201 PA, .233/.318/.307, 1 HR, 19 BB, 32 SO He remains very good at putting the ball in play, but all the sting has been sapped from Keaschall's stick. He didn't exactly obliterate the ball last year, but his average exit velocity and his hard-hit rate are notably down this year. He overachieved in terms of hitting for both power and average last season, but even at a fundamental quality-of-contact level, he's seen a real degradation this year. Over the weekend, he was benched on consecutive days, as manager Derek Shelton elected to give him the same treatment he gave Matt Wallner and Royce Lewis during their own profound offensive struggles—right before each was shuttled off to the minors. Keaschall is younger, has hit better and is more clearly a part of the team's vision for the future than either Lewis or Wallner, so he's not likely to be optioned any time soon. As Shelton commits to making playing time a question of merit and production, though, Keaschall is already losing out. Brooks Lee, Ryan Kreidler, Orlando Arcia and Tristan Gray may not be Murderer's Row, but they all have substantially better offensive numbers than Keaschall has this year—and Keaschall is, by a wide margin, the worst defensive infielder in the group. All this is fairly shocking, because Keaschall actually came to camp this year having improved in what looked like the one area that would limit him as a hitter: bat speed. Last season, his average swing speed was just 66.9 miles per hour, according to Statcast—one of the lowest marks in the league. It's not possible to be any kind of power hitter with so little bat speed, so it looked as though Keaschall would need to use his speed and good placement of the ball even to consistently generate doubles in the majors. That he ran into four homers in a third of a season's playing time felt semi-miraculous. In theory, he's made a major upgrade this spring. His average swing speed is now 69.2 MPH. That's still well below average, but batters who find the barrel often can produce power at that level. Spencer Horwitz, Michael Busch, Will Smith, Cody Bellinger, Trent Grisham and other guys who have proved themselves capable of 20-plus homers a year live in that range. Admittedly, none of those are great comps for Keaschall, in terms of body type, handedness or bat path, but the point stands. You can have a pretty high ceiling as a hitter, once you get to 69 MPH or so. In practice, this has been nothing but bad for Keaschall—at least so far. Bat speed isn't primarily about the force you impart on the baseball because of that speed; you can generate just as hard a batted ball by squaring it up well. Bat speed matters, instead, because it lets you decide later and pull the trigger on the swing later—but so far, Keaschall has had no luck in redeeming that advantage for real value. With no noticeable or measurable change in his swing path and a significant increase in his bat speed, our default expectation should be that Keaschall would make contact farther in front of his body this year than he did in 2025. Instead, his contact point is almost identical to where it was last year. That tells us that he's making proper theoretical use of the advantage he's gained by swinging faster; he's deciding later. In practice, though, that's creating more problems than it's solving. Here's Keaschall handling a fastball down the middle the way a hitter like him should, last August. ZzY4bmxfWGw0TUFRPT1fRGdsWUFnQlZBMWNBQ2xVS1VBQUhDUVlIQUZnQlZBSUFWMXdDVXdJQkJnVlNWQWRW.mp4 This is Keaschall as we all came to know him as a rookie: direct to the ball, frighteningly accurate with the barrel, and (perhaps most importantly) consistently on time. Now, here he is against another fat heater, last month. bGJ3a0JfWGw0TUFRPT1fQlZkVlhGVURVVkFBQVZFQ1V3QUhVdzVRQUFOVFYxY0FCbEJSVWdBTlZ3VldCQUlD.mp4 The temptation, when you see a batter foul a fastball off to the opposite field, is to say they were late on it. Watch closely, though. Keaschall wasn't late here. Rather, he was a hair early, in the timing and the shape of his newly accelerated swing. Set the moments at which he made contact on each pitch side-by-side, and you can see what I mean. Keaschall's arms are actually more extended in the still on the right. He misses the barrel and clips the ball with the high/outside part of his bat because he's already rotated a hair too far. This is normal, if a bit unfortunate, for a hitter who's newly added some bat speed. It's great to swing faster, but you have to learn to stay on time, too. That's a quick glimpse at the fight not to be too early, once you get faster. Now, here's how you can end up a little too late. Here are two cutters away from Keaschall, in early counts. One from last September: b0daM1hfV0ZRVkV3dEdEUT09X0J3aFdBRkVBVkFZQUQxSUxWZ0FIQTFRREFBQlRBbFlBQlFjQ0F3b0ZCbEpWQUF0Vw==.mp4 And one from April: cU93MFFfWGw0TUFRPT1fQXdZSEFsUlFVUVlBRGdNSFZRQUhWUTlmQUZrR0FBTUFBUWNHVkZCWEFRRUJCd1JU.mp4 Keaschall hit both balls pretty squarely, but as any modern hitting coach will tell you, the difference between a squarely-hit ball pulled in the air and one up the middle on the ground is the difference between payday and pain. Keaschall got around the first of these offerings; he couldn't do so on the second. He's swinging faster this year, but you can't just swing fast; you have to swing on time. Here's the moment at which Keaschall first begins the descent phase of his leg kick—when his swing really begins, as opposed to his load—on each pitch. Last year, he was starting that part of his move before the pitch left the pitcher's hand. This year, it's more often coming just after release. The difference seems tiny, until you remember that the projectile he's trying to hit (at just the right angle, mind you) is coming in on the north side of 90 miles per hour and that the space in which he can produce the better kind of batted ball runs perhaps six inches from front to back. Again, in the long run, this should still be a good thing. Being able to decide later should yield better swing decisions, and if Keaschall decides he still needs to cheat a bit more to produce the contact he wants, he can now sacrifice some contact for power that was unreachable when his swing was one of the five or six slowest in the game. There are no guarantees about getting this evolution right, of course. Plenty of players have gotten permanently broken by trying to shore up some weakness, insufficiently cognizant of the costs of that improvement or simply unable to pay them without going talent-broke. On balance, though, it's fair to stay optimistic about Keaschall as a hitter. This adjustment period has been painful, but it's part of the process of going from good to (knock on wood) great.
  9. Versatility never hurts but Royce needs such an offensive overhaul. Why complicate it by asking him to learn a new position that also puts more pressure on the bat? I already thought demoting him was a head start on sending him somewhere (anywhere?) else this summer, but moving Lee to third so soon after they did it only increases my conviction about that.
  10. It's a bit interesting that they waited until Tristan Gray left for paternity leave to do it, though. I wonder if Lee will slide back to short (for a bit) once Gray returns, or whether it'll now be Gray and Kreidler alternating at short with Lee at third.
  11. And, since he's not really good defensively at any spot and has no speed, not even that. He has to hit to be a big-leaguer at all.
  12. By no means have the 2026 Twins gotten lucky. In fact, they can't catch a break. Their run differential (230 runs scored, 231 allowed) implies a 25-25 record, but they're 23-27. They lost their ace to season-ending elbow surgery on the first day of full-squad workouts in the spring, and their in loco Pablosis ace, Joe Ryan, has had multiple disruptions to his preparation and performance. Their star center fielder went off to international duty and found himself benched, slowing his start to the season. They had two strong breakout candidates in their rotation for the first month, but both are currently on the injured list. Now, their primary catcher is shelved for weeks by a broken bone in his hand. Their top two prospects got hurt in Triple-A. Given all that (and especially given the aforementioned 23-27 record), though, things feel oddly hopeful. The Twins are 5.5 games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central, but they've already proved they can hang with that team, beating them twice in three games at Progressive Field earlier this month. They're only 1.5 games out of playoff position. According to FanGraphs, they have a 23.8% chance to make the playoffs—down from their highest point during their early-season hot streak, but right in the same range they've been in for the last four weeks or so. While neither Matt Wallner nor Royce Lewis left the team much choice but to demote them to Triple-A, this situation made that decision both easier and more urgent. Ditto for their replacement of Simeon Woods Richardson in the starting rotation. Because of what now seem to be real problems—and not just slow starts—for the Royals, Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners, Astros and Blue Jays, the door to the playoffs remains open to this team. To give themselves a chance to push through it, the team needed to make changes. Here's a position-by-position breakdown of all 30 teams' wins above average, courtesy of Baseball Reference. The Twins' totals are highlighted. Rk Total All P SP RP Non-P C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF OF (All) DH PH 1 Atlanta Braves9.5 ATL4.8 ATL3.9 SDP1.4 LAD6.3 BAL0.9 ATL1.9 STL1.7 LAD1.8 KCR2.6 SEA1.5 LAD2.2 STL2.1 BOS3.2 PHI1.0 ATL0.2 2 Los Angeles Dodgers9.3 NYY4.3 MIL3.8 PHI1.2 CHC5.8 CHC0.7 ATH1.3 MIL1.7 CHW1.2 MIA1.7 NYY1.3 CHC1.5 BOS1.8 CHC2.7 LAD1.0 LAD0.2 3 New York Yankees7.3 PHI3.4 NYY3.6 ATL0.9 ATL4.7 ATH0.7 BOS1.1 PIT1.4 CLE1.2 CIN1.4 DET0.9 LAA1.1 ARI1.8 NYY2.7 HOU0.9 CHC0.1 4 Milwaukee Brewers3.5 MIL3.4 TBR2.5 COL0.8 BOS3.6 MIN 0.6 NYY1.1 MIA1.3 ARI1.0 NYY1.3 CHC0.6 BOS1.1 NYY1.4 LAD2.6 TBR0.9 BOS0.0 5 Cleveland Guardians3.4 LAD3.0 CLE2.5 NYY0.7 NYY3.0 DET0.5 CHW1.0 CHC1.3 TEX0.7 WSN1.0 BAL0.5 MIN 0.9 WSN0.8 SEA1.9 ATL0.9 WSN0.0 6 Chicago Cubs3.0 CLE2.7 CHW2.4 LAD0.6 STL2.5 MIL0.3 HOU0.9 SEA1.3 KCR0.5 CLE0.9 TBR0.3 ATL0.8 TEX0.7 TEX1.5 CLE0.3 NYY0.0 7 Tampa Bay Rays1.7 ATH2.6 ATH2.4 ATH0.2 TEX2.2 SDP0.3 STL0.6 SFG1.1 HOU0.4 DET0.7 MIN 0.3 TOR0.7 CHC0.6 WSN1.3 CHC0.3 TBR0.0 8 Texas Rangers1.7 DET1.8 MIN 2.4 MIA0.2 ARI1.7 ATL0.3 PIT0.5 ATL1.1 SFG0.4 PIT0.7 BOS0.3 TEX0.6 LAD0.3 ARI1.1 MIL0.2 MIN -0.1 9 Athletics1.7 CHW1.6 PHI2.2 DET0.2 TBR1.1 LAD0.1 MIL0.4 CHW0.5 TBR0.3 TBR0.7 WSN0.3 SEA0.4 ATL0.2 ATL0.9 STL0.2 PIT-0.1 10 Chicago White Sox1.6 TOR1.6 LAD2.2 SEA0.2 HOU0.9 BOS0.1 SDP0.3 CLE0.3 CHC0.1 LAA0.5 TEX0.2 WSN0.2 CLE0.1 STL0.8 BOS0.1 ARI-0.1 11 Boston Red Sox1.1 SDP1.6 TOR1.8 CLE0.1 WSN0.7 TEX-0.1 TEX0.3 LAD0.3 TOR0.1 ARI0.5 LAD0.1 BAL0.1 KCR0.1 CLE-0.3 BAL0.1 HOU-0.1 12 Seattle Mariners0.7 MIN 0.8 DET1.6 SFG0.0 SEA0.7 KCR-0.1 CHC0.3 LAA0.2 DET0.0 HOU0.5 CIN0.1 PIT0.0 SEA0.0 TOR-0.3 NYY0.0 TEX-0.1 13 Philadelphia Phillies0.5 TBR0.6 PIT1.3 TEX-0.1 CLE0.7 HOU-0.2 BAL0.2 TBR0.2 SEA-0.1 CHW0.3 PHI-0.1 NYY0.0 TBR-0.1 BAL-0.4 WSN-0.1 KCR-0.2 14 Arizona Diamondbacks0.3 COL0.1 KCR0.7 TOR-0.1 PIT0.5 STL-0.2 CIN0.2 ARI0.2 PIT-0.1 CHC0.3 ATL-0.1 ARI-0.1 PIT-0.2 MIN -0.4 CIN-0.1 CIN-0.3 15 Kansas City Royals0.1 SEA0.0 CIN0.7 ARI-0.3 KCR0.4 COL-0.3 LAD0.2 TEX0.0 BOS-0.2 TEX0.2 COL-0.2 CHW-0.1 HOU-0.3 PIT-0.4 NYM-0.1 SDP-0.3 16 Pittsburgh Pirates0.1 KCR-0.3 SDP0.2 CHC-0.4 MIL0.1 PIT-0.3 PHI0.2 BAL0.0 ATL-0.2 SDP0.2 MIL-0.2 NYM-0.1 NYM-0.4 TBR-0.5 COL-0.1 MIA-0.3 17 St. Louis Cardinals-0.3 MIA-0.3 SEA-0.2 MIL-0.4 CHW0.0 MIA-0.4 MIN 0.1 ATH-0.1 LAA-0.3 STL0.2 PIT-0.2 CLE-0.1 CHW-0.4 KCR-0.6 ATH-0.2 CHW-0.3 18 Minnesota Twins -1.1 PIT-0.4 LAA-0.2 NYM-0.4 BAL-0.8 ARI-0.4 TBR0.0 WSN-0.1 COL-0.3 LAD0.1 CHW-0.2 KCR-0.1 ATH-0.4 CHW-0.7 TEX-0.3 ATH-0.3 19 Detroit Tigers-1.4 TEX-0.5 TEX-0.4 BOS-0.5 ATH-0.9 NYM-0.4 WSN-0.2 BOS-0.2 ATH-0.4 MIL0.0 NYM-0.3 HOU-0.2 TOR-0.5 NYM-0.8 DET-0.3 SEA-0.3 20 Toronto Blue Jays-1.6 NYM-0.9 STL-0.4 CHW-0.7 CIN-1.6 SFG-0.4 ARI-0.2 DET-0.2 STL-0.4 SFG-0.1 CLE-0.3 SDP-0.3 LAA-0.6 LAA-0.8 SEA-0.4 BAL-0.3 21 San Diego Padres-2.1 ARI-1.4 MIA-0.5 KCR-1.0 MIN -1.9 TOR-0.5 TOR-0.2 NYY-0.3 WSN-0.5 ATH-0.1 SDP-0.4 MIL-0.3 COL-0.7 HOU-0.9 LAA-0.4 LAA-0.3 22 Miami Marlins-2.4 CIN-1.4 NYM-0.6 WSN-1.0 LAA-1.9 SEA-0.5 COL-0.2 CIN-0.4 CIN-0.6 TOR-0.2 HOU-0.4 PHI-0.3 SFG-0.8 CIN-1.3 ARI-0.4 SFG-0.4 23 Cincinnati Reds-3.0 SFG-2.4 COL-0.7 MIN -1.6 MIA-2.1 CIN-0.5 LAA-0.3 KCR-0.4 PHI-0.6 NYM-0.3 STL-0.4 MIA-0.3 MIL-0.9 PHI-1.3 SDP-0.4 NYM-0.4 24 Washington Nationals-3.2 BOS-2.5 ARI-1.0 PIT-1.7 SFG-2.4 TBR-0.5 MIA-0.4 MIN -0.5 NYM-0.7 BAL-0.3 SFG-0.5 CIN-0.5 CIN-0.9 MIL-1.4 SFG-0.4 MIL-0.4 25 Houston Astros-3.8 CHC-2.8 HOU-1.7 TBR-1.9 PHI-2.9 LAA-0.5 NYM-0.5 TOR-0.5 MIL-0.7 PHI-0.3 ATH-0.5 COL-0.6 PHI-0.9 COL-1.5 MIN -0.5 CLE-0.4 26 New York Mets-4.8 STL-2.8 BOS-2.0 BAL-2.0 DET-3.2 WSN-0.7 SFG-0.6 HOU-0.6 MIN -0.7 ATL-0.4 TOR-0.5 SFG-0.7 BAL-1.0 DET-1.7 KCR-0.5 PHI-0.4 27 San Francisco Giants-4.8 LAA-3.3 CHC-2.4 CIN-2.0 TOR-3.2 CLE-0.7 CLE-0.6 PHI-0.7 SDP-0.8 SEA-0.4 ARI-0.6 TBR-0.7 SDP-1.2 ATH-1.8 MIA-0.6 STL-0.4 28 Colorado Rockies-5.0 WSN-3.9 SFG-2.4 STL-2.4 SDP-3.7 PHI-0.8 SEA-0.8 NYM-0.7 NYY-0.9 MIN -0.4 KCR-0.6 STL-0.9 MIA-1.2 SDP-1.9 CHW-0.9 TOR-0.6 29 Los Angeles Angels-5.2 HOU-4.7 BAL-2.8 HOU-3.0 NYM-3.9 NYY-0.9 KCR-0.9 COL-1.0 BAL-1.0 BOS-0.5 MIA-0.9 ATH-0.9 DET-1.5 SFG-2.0 TOR-1.0 COL-0.7 30 Baltimore Orioles-5.7 BAL-4.9 WSN-2.9 LAA-3.2 COL-5.1 CHW-1.1 DET-1.4 SDP-1.1 MIA-1.0 COL-1.0 LAA-1.3 DET-1.1 MIN -1.6 MIA-2.4 PIT-1.2 DET-0.8 Coming into this season, any hopes for this club to contend were anchored to their starting rotation being good. That hasn't happened in the way fans or the front office hoped and expected, in that Pablo López is out for the year and both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been sidelined, but lo, the unit has been a strength, after all. Bailey Ober is settling in as an obviously usable (though, just as obviously, vulnerable) keep-you-in-the-game guy. Woods Richardson was a disaster, but Zebby Matthews has looked just as good as Woods Richardson did bad. Bradley is on the cusp of returning to a rotation that now includes Connor Prielipp as a full and semi-permanent member, with fellow hard-throwing lefty Kendry Rojas as a more provisional piece. With Woods Richardson out of that picture, the team has come round to enjoying both ample upside and enviable depth in their starting corps, by however circuitous a route. Ryan, Ober, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, and whichever of Abel and Rojas is the right mix of available and effective can be the starting pitching depth chart of a playoff team. The (relatively) proactive fix of swapping Woods Richardson out for Matthews is echoed throughout the roster, where the team is (as expected) playing an even harder game of Whack-a-Mole. They entered the season with an utterly underpowered bullpen, and that unit still hasn't been good, so far. However, they're starting to cobble together a group that can be good, in the medium term. Already, they've churned through several external additions (Garrett Acton, Luis García, and Yoendrys Gómez), but more telling is what they've done with their internal options. Gone is Justin Topa, a roster casualty whom the team also couldn't trust anymore. Into the mix are Woods Richardson (who has a real chance to be useful in a long relief role, if deployed correctly) and Andrew Morris, who has unceremoniously claimed the mantle of relief ace. Rojas might yet spend some time in the pen, too, as the rotation gets healthier and stabilizes. No team has gotten worse performances from its right fielders than the Twins, thanks to Wallner's all-around atrociousness, but he's now out of the frame. Minnesota is 26th in wins above average from third basemen, but now, Lewis is out of the way, too. The replacements for those players won't put the team in the top echelon at either spot, but they have a real chance to be better than Lewis and Wallner. The outline of a decent team is coming into focus. That invites the question: What's next? What does the team need to do to keep improving, so they can take advantage of this unexpected opportunity to stay relevant all summer? Firstly, as the chart shows, things still aren't good at shortstop. Brooks Lee has responded better to the influence of new hitting coach Keith Beauregard than his fellow last-wave top prospects, Wallner and Lewis, but he's still only batting .248/.299/.388. He's doing a slightly better job of making contact against breaking and offspeed stuff, but that's the only notable change in his profile. Nor has he become a viable defensive shortstop. Lee almost certainly could play a solid third base, and his bat is playable. In the medium term, then, the move is obvious: call up Kaelen Culpepper, test him at short, and slide Lee over. That will be risky at any point this year, though, and Culpepper isn't quite ready for it yet. Right now, the team will stick with Lee at that position, and the first change we're likely to see will be a slow shift toward more matchup play. Tristan Gray, Orlando Arcia and Ryan Kreidler form an underwhelming but extremely intriguing collection of role players on the infield. Gray brings a left-handed bat, with enough bat speed to be dangerous. Kreidler looked like he would never hit in the big leagues, but in a tiny sample this year, he's hitting in the big leagues. Arcia brings the most experience defensively, and while he'd be no more than a minor upgrade on Lee's glove at short, he would be a big step up from Luke Keaschall's glove work at second. That brings us to Keaschall, who has belatedly pulled his OPS to the right side of .600. He's just not going to work as a defensive second baseman, though any real move to another position has to wait, right now. He can hit enough to outpace his defensive woes, though, and the team now has several guys on the roster whom Derek Shelton can use to mitigate the damage Keaschall can do in the field. It won't be easy for the team to sustain the momentum they've built by winning three of their last four series. Ryan Jeffers's absence looms large. There are guys on this roster overperforming, and guys already coming back to Earth after hot starts. (Witness Trevor Larnach's .217/.280/.326 batting line in May.) They have a 10-game road trip to survive, beginning Friday, in which they'll play the Red Sox, White Sox and Pirates. Don't forget, either, that this team is just 23-27. They haven't exactly surged. They've just maintained a decent pace longer than expected. However, the chance before them is real. By staying afloat into (at least) the final third of May, they've checked the box Tom Pohlad put on their to-do list over the winter, when he made the then-improbable claim that the team would contend this year. Pohlad said last month that he would supplement the roster via trade this summer, if new top executive Jeremy Zoll came to him with a chance to do so. Now, that feels less like a pipe dream and more like a possibility. By winning just enough to stay alive, Zoll, Shelton and the team have bought themselves enough time to fix some of their most glaring flaws.
  13. Image courtesy of © Jordan Johnson-Imagn Images By no means have the 2026 Twins gotten lucky. In fact, they can't catch a break. Their run differential (230 runs scored, 231 allowed) implies a 25-25 record, but they're 23-27. They lost their ace to season-ending elbow surgery on the first day of full-squad workouts in the spring, and their in loco Pablosis ace, Joe Ryan, has had multiple disruptions to his preparation and performance. Their star center fielder went off to international duty and found himself benched, slowing his start to the season. They had two strong breakout candidates in their rotation for the first month, but both are currently on the injured list. Now, their primary catcher is shelved for weeks by a broken bone in his hand. Their top two prospects got hurt in Triple-A. Given all that (and especially given the aforementioned 23-27 record), though, things feel oddly hopeful. The Twins are 5.5 games behind the Guardians for first place in the AL Central, but they've already proved they can hang with that team, beating them twice in three games at Progressive Field earlier this month. They're only 1.5 games out of playoff position. According to FanGraphs, they have a 23.8% chance to make the playoffs—down from their highest point during their early-season hot streak, but right in the same range they've been in for the last four weeks or so. While neither Matt Wallner nor Royce Lewis left the team much choice but to demote them to Triple-A, this situation made that decision both easier and more urgent. Ditto for their replacement of Simeon Woods Richardson in the starting rotation. Because of what now seem to be real problems—and not just slow starts—for the Royals, Tigers, Red Sox, Orioles, Mariners, Astros and Blue Jays, the door to the playoffs remains open to this team. To give themselves a chance to push through it, the team needed to make changes. Here's a position-by-position breakdown of all 30 teams' wins above average, courtesy of Baseball Reference. The Twins' totals are highlighted. Rk Total All P SP RP Non-P C 1B 2B 3B SS LF CF RF OF (All) DH PH 1 Atlanta Braves9.5 ATL4.8 ATL3.9 SDP1.4 LAD6.3 BAL0.9 ATL1.9 STL1.7 LAD1.8 KCR2.6 SEA1.5 LAD2.2 STL2.1 BOS3.2 PHI1.0 ATL0.2 2 Los Angeles Dodgers9.3 NYY4.3 MIL3.8 PHI1.2 CHC5.8 CHC0.7 ATH1.3 MIL1.7 CHW1.2 MIA1.7 NYY1.3 CHC1.5 BOS1.8 CHC2.7 LAD1.0 LAD0.2 3 New York Yankees7.3 PHI3.4 NYY3.6 ATL0.9 ATL4.7 ATH0.7 BOS1.1 PIT1.4 CLE1.2 CIN1.4 DET0.9 LAA1.1 ARI1.8 NYY2.7 HOU0.9 CHC0.1 4 Milwaukee Brewers3.5 MIL3.4 TBR2.5 COL0.8 BOS3.6 MIN 0.6 NYY1.1 MIA1.3 ARI1.0 NYY1.3 CHC0.6 BOS1.1 NYY1.4 LAD2.6 TBR0.9 BOS0.0 5 Cleveland Guardians3.4 LAD3.0 CLE2.5 NYY0.7 NYY3.0 DET0.5 CHW1.0 CHC1.3 TEX0.7 WSN1.0 BAL0.5 MIN 0.9 WSN0.8 SEA1.9 ATL0.9 WSN0.0 6 Chicago Cubs3.0 CLE2.7 CHW2.4 LAD0.6 STL2.5 MIL0.3 HOU0.9 SEA1.3 KCR0.5 CLE0.9 TBR0.3 ATL0.8 TEX0.7 TEX1.5 CLE0.3 NYY0.0 7 Tampa Bay Rays1.7 ATH2.6 ATH2.4 ATH0.2 TEX2.2 SDP0.3 STL0.6 SFG1.1 HOU0.4 DET0.7 MIN 0.3 TOR0.7 CHC0.6 WSN1.3 CHC0.3 TBR0.0 8 Texas Rangers1.7 DET1.8 MIN 2.4 MIA0.2 ARI1.7 ATL0.3 PIT0.5 ATL1.1 SFG0.4 PIT0.7 BOS0.3 TEX0.6 LAD0.3 ARI1.1 MIL0.2 MIN -0.1 9 Athletics1.7 CHW1.6 PHI2.2 DET0.2 TBR1.1 LAD0.1 MIL0.4 CHW0.5 TBR0.3 TBR0.7 WSN0.3 SEA0.4 ATL0.2 ATL0.9 STL0.2 PIT-0.1 10 Chicago White Sox1.6 TOR1.6 LAD2.2 SEA0.2 HOU0.9 BOS0.1 SDP0.3 CLE0.3 CHC0.1 LAA0.5 TEX0.2 WSN0.2 CLE0.1 STL0.8 BOS0.1 ARI-0.1 11 Boston Red Sox1.1 SDP1.6 TOR1.8 CLE0.1 WSN0.7 TEX-0.1 TEX0.3 LAD0.3 TOR0.1 ARI0.5 LAD0.1 BAL0.1 KCR0.1 CLE-0.3 BAL0.1 HOU-0.1 12 Seattle Mariners0.7 MIN 0.8 DET1.6 SFG0.0 SEA0.7 KCR-0.1 CHC0.3 LAA0.2 DET0.0 HOU0.5 CIN0.1 PIT0.0 SEA0.0 TOR-0.3 NYY0.0 TEX-0.1 13 Philadelphia Phillies0.5 TBR0.6 PIT1.3 TEX-0.1 CLE0.7 HOU-0.2 BAL0.2 TBR0.2 SEA-0.1 CHW0.3 PHI-0.1 NYY0.0 TBR-0.1 BAL-0.4 WSN-0.1 KCR-0.2 14 Arizona Diamondbacks0.3 COL0.1 KCR0.7 TOR-0.1 PIT0.5 STL-0.2 CIN0.2 ARI0.2 PIT-0.1 CHC0.3 ATL-0.1 ARI-0.1 PIT-0.2 MIN -0.4 CIN-0.1 CIN-0.3 15 Kansas City Royals0.1 SEA0.0 CIN0.7 ARI-0.3 KCR0.4 COL-0.3 LAD0.2 TEX0.0 BOS-0.2 TEX0.2 COL-0.2 CHW-0.1 HOU-0.3 PIT-0.4 NYM-0.1 SDP-0.3 16 Pittsburgh Pirates0.1 KCR-0.3 SDP0.2 CHC-0.4 MIL0.1 PIT-0.3 PHI0.2 BAL0.0 ATL-0.2 SDP0.2 MIL-0.2 NYM-0.1 NYM-0.4 TBR-0.5 COL-0.1 MIA-0.3 17 St. Louis Cardinals-0.3 MIA-0.3 SEA-0.2 MIL-0.4 CHW0.0 MIA-0.4 MIN 0.1 ATH-0.1 LAA-0.3 STL0.2 PIT-0.2 CLE-0.1 CHW-0.4 KCR-0.6 ATH-0.2 CHW-0.3 18 Minnesota Twins -1.1 PIT-0.4 LAA-0.2 NYM-0.4 BAL-0.8 ARI-0.4 TBR0.0 WSN-0.1 COL-0.3 LAD0.1 CHW-0.2 KCR-0.1 ATH-0.4 CHW-0.7 TEX-0.3 ATH-0.3 19 Detroit Tigers-1.4 TEX-0.5 TEX-0.4 BOS-0.5 ATH-0.9 NYM-0.4 WSN-0.2 BOS-0.2 ATH-0.4 MIL0.0 NYM-0.3 HOU-0.2 TOR-0.5 NYM-0.8 DET-0.3 SEA-0.3 20 Toronto Blue Jays-1.6 NYM-0.9 STL-0.4 CHW-0.7 CIN-1.6 SFG-0.4 ARI-0.2 DET-0.2 STL-0.4 SFG-0.1 CLE-0.3 SDP-0.3 LAA-0.6 LAA-0.8 SEA-0.4 BAL-0.3 21 San Diego Padres-2.1 ARI-1.4 MIA-0.5 KCR-1.0 MIN -1.9 TOR-0.5 TOR-0.2 NYY-0.3 WSN-0.5 ATH-0.1 SDP-0.4 MIL-0.3 COL-0.7 HOU-0.9 LAA-0.4 LAA-0.3 22 Miami Marlins-2.4 CIN-1.4 NYM-0.6 WSN-1.0 LAA-1.9 SEA-0.5 COL-0.2 CIN-0.4 CIN-0.6 TOR-0.2 HOU-0.4 PHI-0.3 SFG-0.8 CIN-1.3 ARI-0.4 SFG-0.4 23 Cincinnati Reds-3.0 SFG-2.4 COL-0.7 MIN -1.6 MIA-2.1 CIN-0.5 LAA-0.3 KCR-0.4 PHI-0.6 NYM-0.3 STL-0.4 MIA-0.3 MIL-0.9 PHI-1.3 SDP-0.4 NYM-0.4 24 Washington Nationals-3.2 BOS-2.5 ARI-1.0 PIT-1.7 SFG-2.4 TBR-0.5 MIA-0.4 MIN -0.5 NYM-0.7 BAL-0.3 SFG-0.5 CIN-0.5 CIN-0.9 MIL-1.4 SFG-0.4 MIL-0.4 25 Houston Astros-3.8 CHC-2.8 HOU-1.7 TBR-1.9 PHI-2.9 LAA-0.5 NYM-0.5 TOR-0.5 MIL-0.7 PHI-0.3 ATH-0.5 COL-0.6 PHI-0.9 COL-1.5 MIN -0.5 CLE-0.4 26 New York Mets-4.8 STL-2.8 BOS-2.0 BAL-2.0 DET-3.2 WSN-0.7 SFG-0.6 HOU-0.6 MIN -0.7 ATL-0.4 TOR-0.5 SFG-0.7 BAL-1.0 DET-1.7 KCR-0.5 PHI-0.4 27 San Francisco Giants-4.8 LAA-3.3 CHC-2.4 CIN-2.0 TOR-3.2 CLE-0.7 CLE-0.6 PHI-0.7 SDP-0.8 SEA-0.4 ARI-0.6 TBR-0.7 SDP-1.2 ATH-1.8 MIA-0.6 STL-0.4 28 Colorado Rockies-5.0 WSN-3.9 SFG-2.4 STL-2.4 SDP-3.7 PHI-0.8 SEA-0.8 NYM-0.7 NYY-0.9 MIN -0.4 KCR-0.6 STL-0.9 MIA-1.2 SDP-1.9 CHW-0.9 TOR-0.6 29 Los Angeles Angels-5.2 HOU-4.7 BAL-2.8 HOU-3.0 NYM-3.9 NYY-0.9 KCR-0.9 COL-1.0 BAL-1.0 BOS-0.5 MIA-0.9 ATH-0.9 DET-1.5 SFG-2.0 TOR-1.0 COL-0.7 30 Baltimore Orioles-5.7 BAL-4.9 WSN-2.9 LAA-3.2 COL-5.1 CHW-1.1 DET-1.4 SDP-1.1 MIA-1.0 COL-1.0 LAA-1.3 DET-1.1 MIN -1.6 MIA-2.4 PIT-1.2 DET-0.8 Coming into this season, any hopes for this club to contend were anchored to their starting rotation being good. That hasn't happened in the way fans or the front office hoped and expected, in that Pablo López is out for the year and both Mick Abel and Taj Bradley have been sidelined, but lo, the unit has been a strength, after all. Bailey Ober is settling in as an obviously usable (though, just as obviously, vulnerable) keep-you-in-the-game guy. Woods Richardson was a disaster, but Zebby Matthews has looked just as good as Woods Richardson did bad. Bradley is on the cusp of returning to a rotation that now includes Connor Prielipp as a full and semi-permanent member, with fellow hard-throwing lefty Kendry Rojas as a more provisional piece. With Woods Richardson out of that picture, the team has come round to enjoying both ample upside and enviable depth in their starting corps, by however circuitous a route. Ryan, Ober, Bradley, Prielipp, Matthews, and whichever of Abel and Rojas is the right mix of available and effective can be the starting pitching depth chart of a playoff team. The (relatively) proactive fix of swapping Woods Richardson out for Matthews is echoed throughout the roster, where the team is (as expected) playing an even harder game of Whack-a-Mole. They entered the season with an utterly underpowered bullpen, and that unit still hasn't been good, so far. However, they're starting to cobble together a group that can be good, in the medium term. Already, they've churned through several external additions (Garrett Acton, Luis García, and Yoendrys Gómez), but more telling is what they've done with their internal options. Gone is Justin Topa, a roster casualty whom the team also couldn't trust anymore. Into the mix are Woods Richardson (who has a real chance to be useful in a long relief role, if deployed correctly) and Andrew Morris, who has unceremoniously claimed the mantle of relief ace. Rojas might yet spend some time in the pen, too, as the rotation gets healthier and stabilizes. No team has gotten worse performances from its right fielders than the Twins, thanks to Wallner's all-around atrociousness, but he's now out of the frame. Minnesota is 26th in wins above average from third basemen, but now, Lewis is out of the way, too. The replacements for those players won't put the team in the top echelon at either spot, but they have a real chance to be better than Lewis and Wallner. The outline of a decent team is coming into focus. That invites the question: What's next? What does the team need to do to keep improving, so they can take advantage of this unexpected opportunity to stay relevant all summer? Firstly, as the chart shows, things still aren't good at shortstop. Brooks Lee has responded better to the influence of new hitting coach Keith Beauregard than his fellow last-wave top prospects, Wallner and Lewis, but he's still only batting .248/.299/.388. He's doing a slightly better job of making contact against breaking and offspeed stuff, but that's the only notable change in his profile. Nor has he become a viable defensive shortstop. Lee almost certainly could play a solid third base, and his bat is playable. In the medium term, then, the move is obvious: call up Kaelen Culpepper, test him at short, and slide Lee over. That will be risky at any point this year, though, and Culpepper isn't quite ready for it yet. Right now, the team will stick with Lee at that position, and the first change we're likely to see will be a slow shift toward more matchup play. Tristan Gray, Orlando Arcia and Ryan Kreidler form an underwhelming but extremely intriguing collection of role players on the infield. Gray brings a left-handed bat, with enough bat speed to be dangerous. Kreidler looked like he would never hit in the big leagues, but in a tiny sample this year, he's hitting in the big leagues. Arcia brings the most experience defensively, and while he'd be no more than a minor upgrade on Lee's glove at short, he would be a big step up from Luke Keaschall's glove work at second. That brings us to Keaschall, who has belatedly pulled his OPS to the right side of .600. He's just not going to work as a defensive second baseman, though any real move to another position has to wait, right now. He can hit enough to outpace his defensive woes, though, and the team now has several guys on the roster whom Derek Shelton can use to mitigate the damage Keaschall can do in the field. It won't be easy for the team to sustain the momentum they've built by winning three of their last four series. Ryan Jeffers's absence looms large. There are guys on this roster overperforming, and guys already coming back to Earth after hot starts. (Witness Trevor Larnach's .217/.280/.326 batting line in May.) They have a 10-game road trip to survive, beginning Friday, in which they'll play the Red Sox, White Sox and Pirates. Don't forget, either, that this team is just 23-27. They haven't exactly surged. They've just maintained a decent pace longer than expected. However, the chance before them is real. By staying afloat into (at least) the final third of May, they've checked the box Tom Pohlad put on their to-do list over the winter, when he made the then-improbable claim that the team would contend this year. Pohlad said last month that he would supplement the roster via trade this summer, if new top executive Jeremy Zoll came to him with a chance to do so. Now, that feels less like a pipe dream and more like a possibility. By winning just enough to stay alive, Zoll, Shelton and the team have bought themselves enough time to fix some of their most glaring flaws. View full article
  14. Feels like one of those names that shows up a lot in the Boston phonebook, so sure! I mean if you mean AROLDIS, then no.
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