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ashbury last won the day on November 3

ashbury had the most liked content!


About ashbury

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  • Location:
    Western Nevada
  • Biography
    Retired software developer and product manager
  • Occupation


  • Interests
    Day hiking and trail building, baseball biographer

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  1. If Julien could be the headliner for Kirby, plus a good pitching prospect that we only hope becomes as good as Kirby, plus a couple of low-minors lottery tickets, I'd be really aggressive about making it happen. My interest in Gilbert would be only slightly, slightly lower due to one less year of control. Of course I'd defer to my player evaluation team for more in depth insight as to which one I want. But I especially see no black marks regarding injury or durability (*cough* Mahle *cough*).
  2. For the 3 current contracts named that are on the 40-man, we don't know yet. Acquiring top tier players who have any choice in the matter will always seem "not cost effective" because the collective bargaining agreement makes it that way. Multiple teams will bid up anyone perceived as above average, creating the classic s-shaped curve (here, money spent on the horizontal axis, value on the vertical). I'll go along with others that Donaldson's contract was bad for the Twins, because it cost them significant resources in trade to simply get out from under it. Buxton's contract has simply cost money, so far; the terms of the contract were meant to protect against injury but "oh, I can only DH today" for weeks on end proved to be a loophole, and if that persists through the life of the contract I'll change my view. Correa and Vazquez, I foresee them delivering more value than they have so far, so the jury's out. Dobnak is looking like a failure of player evaluation, with the finger injury being merely what triggered it. It bothers me more than it should, because the contract is the least consequential of those named.
  3. If the ground rule is to construct the 26-man from the current 40-man, I think I have to put Miranda in St Paul and roster Gordon. Limbo is for dancers from Trinidad.
  4. In 2023, the Twins averaged 4.6 runs a game while Pablo Lopez was on the mound. They averaged 4.7 for Joe Ryan. For Sonny Gray? 3.3 runs. Imagine that much difference in ERA - you think that might affect how often a good pitcher will get a 'W'? After the starter departed the game, the Twins averaged .9 additional runs in Pablo's games, .7 runs for Joe. In Sonny's games they averaged .4 more runs. So not only were they less likely to support him during his start, but they were less likely to come back to take a lead. There needs to be some context when looking at game results for a pitcher. There's wide variation in what goes on that's out of his hands, unless his name is Shohei and he picks up a bat.. https://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/MIN/2023-pitching.shtml#all_players_starter_pitching
  5. History is important, but no team can ride nostalgia forever. The AL Browns have been gone from St Loo for longer than they were there. Stories of those days don't carry relevance now. Keeping a place a "good baseball town" is not automatic. The Cards are doing something right, and their accomplishments in a market comparable to the Twin Cities should not be dismissed out of hand.
  6. Most of the time I'd opt to keep the superior player. If it's a question of truly elite talent at up the middle positions, with starting pitching as exactly in the middle as it gets, I widen my horizon a little. It also depends on what we could get for Julien. Wheels within wheels here. Good discussion.
  7. You selected that second decimal value with care, did you not. Straight out of college, excelled at high-A, not rookie league* or single-A. Next season, didn't miss a beat at AA. Acquitted himself decently at AAA, with a low enough BABIP to suggest his performance there will trend upward almost immediately next season. The Twins have been criticized for slow promotion of their prospects. Damned if they do, damned if they don't. Lee possibly could have OPSed 1.000 in rookie ball and then repeated the feat at single-A in his second year. But who the heck would want that? That's what you do with a Nate Baez type, who I see has put up nice numbers at single-A after college. Brooks Lee, you want to keep challenged. Brooks Lee shows all the earmarks of a keeper. No prospect is a sure thing - neither is an established veteran - human beings are like that. We "do know" about Lee, almost exactly as well as any player. Of course being a keeper makes him great trade bait if the target acquisition is significant enough. I'm on the fence, thinking we should keep him, but open to a trade for a great pitcher with years of control. * Okay, 4 games there
  8. Cheaper in the long run to just hire some mid-level FO person from Milwaukee or St Louis with 10 years' experience, and then listen carefully each time he or she says, "well, that's not how we did it back in...".
  9. Not only that, but they have to be careful how they tweak it. To avoid getting into two-strike counts at all, they could opt to go for less power (let's say), and then end up with an offense like Cleveland or Washington had this year - low strikeouts, but not a lot of runs scored despite that advantage. CLE and WAS had decent batting averages but low walk rates so their OBPs actually were below league average and they neither one hit with much power. The difficult dilemma is that if you cut down the strikeouts the wrong way, you apparently might cut down on walks and power at the same time, and then that's questionable progress. The solution is to have low strikeouts combined with good OBP and SLG like Houston and Atlanta did. Yes, get some good hitters. Why didn't somebody in the Twins FO think of this before? As you said, not sure how easy it'll actually be. That's why the on field staff gets paid the big bucks.
  10. No team does well at the plate when there are two strikes on the batter. OPS across the majors was .734, but once 2 strikes happen the OPS drops to .523 (in large part because, yes, that's when strikeouts can happen). It's not as if a change in approach with two strikes will turn our hitters into Babe Ruth - the Braves led the majors in two-strike OPS at .596. The Twins' two-strike results in 2023 were under a double whammy. First, they were near the league bottom in OPS at .482. So yes, doing more like the Braves, or even just reaching league norms, would help some. I notice for instance a large dropoff in HR rank with two strikes, compared to their lofty HR total overall. And second, they led the majors in plate appearances that reached two strikes. You're not going to really succeed, operating at a disadvantage more often than your opposition. So, they were in the unfavorable situation too often, and did badly when there. Fix either, and there'll be some improvement. Fix both, and they might really unlock something. (They've taken one good step by parting ways with Joey Gallo, who OPSed a mighty .406 with two strikes. He batted .087 in those situation. Cut the Mendoza line in half, and he was still under that.)
  11. An ace would be nice, a mid-rotation arm should be the aim, but my minimum standard is for acquiring someone who can be reasonably forecast to do better than Louis Varland's 2023 in the majors. That allows Louis to start 2024 at St Paul, and find whatever additional tweaks will let him dominate at AAA, which he didn't do in 2023 either. And while he works at his development, we have someone better to hold his place. Not to mention, you can't get through a season with 5 starters anyway.
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