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Riverbrian

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Riverbrian last won the day on November 5

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About Riverbrian

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  1. Agreed. I'm aware of the size of the task. I'd rather not be in this position but they still need one. That's means they will have to cross their fingers and they will have to outbid the other teams who are also crossing their fingers. Arozorena or Suzuki would be great additions but... they still need to address the right side of the infield because they can't give it all to Lewis and say... OK... Let's try again.
  2. In consideration of my posting content and the volume of it. In consideration of myself making the same points in regards to injuries, role players, platoons, 26 and 40 man spots being pure gold. The same points that I repeat over and over and over again. You are seriously asking me this question? Analogies are not the only place that I'm failing. I do not believe that a short side platoon bat in Martin and a defensive replacement in Outman that is so bad offensively that he is not trusted to out hit the sub .600 OPS that Wallner was producing... Despite being a better defender is a sensible Plan B. Emma could have been Plan D but we kind of skipped over Martin and Outman.
  3. Both success and failure come in degrees. Santana was a success with the Twins.. Not so much with Cleveland in 2025. Cruz was a success with the Twins... not so much with the Nationals. Donaldson hit well for us but the interesting thing about Donaldson was the cost to move him. It doesn't matter what anybody thinks of IKF today. The Twins just traded Garver who had an .875 OPS and two years of control to the Rangers to get IKF. The Yankees took on the Donaldson contract to get IKF. The Twins gave them IKF and IKF wasn't cheap to acquire. It didn't work out well for the Yankees. Bell did alright. Not well enough for the Twins to pick up his option for 10 million. Signing Bauers is absolutely risky. We need a big bat. I don't want to pay a high price in prospects. Gotta buy someone. Throws hands up in the air.
  4. It's a risk. And it fails more than it succeeds. They need a big bat. I throw my hands up.
  5. I apologize for the analogy. Admittedly... it was tortured, without a doubt. I attempted to pivot from "poof" and failed. I apologize for the offense. I apologize for the failure. In my younger days, I could have come up with 10 better alternatives. I've slipped in my old age, and the times are much less tolerant of my efforts. Why do I think Wallner was the sole plan? I'm not going to prove it was the sole plan. How about... it wasn't a very good plan if there was. There certainly wasn't a publicized rumor of an OF upgrade. My indicators would be roster construction and managerial utilization. I really, really watched utilization last year. And then there's Tom Pohlad announcing that they were going for it. I assumed they weren't turning things over to the kids at that point and they didn't go with the kids so I my assumption could still be valid. But... that's another discussion. Other than that... admittedly... I have no idea what Plan B was. They have a depth chart, I assume. Next man up is the next man up. Qualifications be damned. If you think it was Emma... OK, it was Emma. However, that opens another discussion because Emma had 200-some PA in St. Paul and a 31.6% K rate in 2025. If I had to guess, he may well have been the plan. Because if Buxton got hurt, it wasn't going to be bulk work from Outman. So Emma (who has also been hurt quite a bit as you mention) might have been it. Kreidler was called up when Wallner was sent down. He went immediately into platoon with Outman initially. Interesting Note: Matt Wallner had a 27.3% K rate with the Saints in 2026. Jenkins? Maybe. He's our biggest prospect in quite some time. However, that's a 40-man addition with 102 PA. That's a pretty quick crank-up of the clock at age 20. What I'm reasonably confident about is this: It wasn't Outman. Outman was a very specific role player. Give Buxton a breather in CF, late-game defensive replacement, and pinch runner. No matter how bad things got for Wallner, Shelton didn't turn to Outman. He had 33 PA when Wallner was sent down. He started in CF four times when Buxton took a day off. He stepped in to play LF when Larnach moved to DH for a game. He stepped in to play RF on April 19. Wallner was originally in the lineup but was scratched that day with a reported rib injury. Interesting Note: Wallner had a rib injury. He sat two days before an off day and was back on the horse after that. No trip to the IL. Time to heal? Incidentally. The eventual dwindling also starting right about this time. Outman is out. He was never the guy. And this is why I hate role players. We always need them to be more than they are. The other role player was Austin Martin. We know it wasn't Martin. Someone had to cover for Larnach against left-handed starters. We all know that was Martin's assigned job. That, along with pinch running and late-game defensive replacement duties. That sort of thing. He eventually started playing RF, and he was killing all those lefties to start the season. But Martin didn't seriously move into RF until the Wallner demotion. And this, of course, exposed Larnach to more left-handed pitching. It's like a cat chasing its tail. Martin can't be the contingency plan if expanding his role just creates another contingency problem elsewhere. That's another discussion, of course. Then there's the timing. He had just struck 10 times in his last 12 PA's. The day of the Wallner demotion, Trevor Larnach was also out with upper-back tightness. Interesting Note: The Wallner demotion was sudden/urgent enough that they made the move with Larnach hurt badly enough to miss the next three games. The timing is... what? At the very least, it's worthy of questions. Outman also saw a major kick in playing time after the Wallner demotion. But it wasn't Wallner's departure that caused that uptick. It was Buxton, who developed a right hip flexor issue the very next day. The Wallner demotion right between Larnach and Buxton injury. It's why I keep talking about the role of role players over and over again. Because it's an important discussion... particularly right now, at this critical juncture. Ok... What do you think? Minnesota had some severe injury problems in May. Wallner's demotion came right in the MIDST of those injuries. Doesn't that seem suddenly urgent? Here's the real question. Do you think Minnesota had adequate coverage for Wallner? Especially if this fastball-exploitation problem already existed? And they are going for it. Myself... I don't think they had adequate coverage for Wallner, and I'm surprised you're even considering the possibility that they might have. To me, it looks like Wallner was selected... chosen... relied upon for a significant role. Not even a platoon attachment. It was every day Wally. To me that says, "Let's rock and roll."
  6. Bring in a big King Kong bat. Clemens' flexibility gives you two aisles to shop from at 1B and 2B. Use that flexibility to find the biggest bat you can. Choosing between Clemens and Bauers or Clemens and Lowe? The presence of Clemens on the roster is like going to Target. Without Clemens, there's a wait at the checkout counter. With Clemens, it's like having two open lanes to choose from. I choose the one with Jake Bauers working behind the counter. But let's not split hairs. The Brandon Lowe line looks pretty nice as well. I'd also be careful putting too much stock in defensive metrics for a guy bouncing around multiple positions. The sample sizes at each position can be pretty small, and those numbers can be noisy. Kody Clemens' flexibility is a huge part of his value to the club.
  7. I didn't have a problem with you running me through AI. My comment was an attempt at humor. Although I will say this. I do find myself searching for that middle ground. If I'm too brief... understanding is hard to achieve. If I'm too long... the willingness to read all of it is hard to achieve. For clarity... I'm not defending Wallner. He and Lewis needed to be sent down. I said about time when they were sent down. Justification for the send down isn't necessary. Justification for his upcoming outright dismissal. I may require that and I believe I am justified to ask for justification because of how the Twins went into 2026 with Wallner as the sole PLAN. Only for a reversal one month later and NO PLACE TO GO. You did demonstrate a dwindling. I dwell often on the subject of dwindling. I contend consistently that when players dwaddle... they should be dwindled. Wallner was dwaddling. I'm not arguing the dwamotion to AAA. Weather it was Poof or a gradual walk down. It took a MONTH to go from the North Pole to the South Pole. His exact utilization. He started the first 13 games of the year. Sat his very first game on April 11. He went 0-4 on April 10th with his two strikeouts. His small sample OPS had fallen from .728 to .677. He had reached 28 strikeouts in 56 AB's. That game the Twins faced a left hander in Eric Lauer of the Blue Jays. In order for Wallner to take the night off. Trevor Larnach made the start in LF as Martin went to RF. (Larnach by the way homered off of Lauer). Martin was rostered to short side for Larnach. You don't like Poof... He's Gone. So let's go with my revised comparable of: Let's get back to my main point rephrased and the reason I started this discussion. Didn't the Twins know he had a drinking problem when they renewed their vows by naming him the starting RF and provided Outman as his backup. Martin as we both know was tied to Larnach. All Eggs are in the Wallner Basket because they never trusted Outman enough to turn to him. Outman was a Role Player. Back to his utilization. He has started 13 out of 14 games to this point. He started the next 5 games. He was not in the starting lineup on April 18th. Utilization is now 18 out of 20. The starting pitcher for the Reds that day was left hander Andrew Abbott. This is his 2nd time out of the lineup. Both times he rested left hander was the starter. Same thing as the game against Bauer. Larnach started in LF and Martin started in RF. More utilization details. Outman enters the game as a defensive replacement for Larnach in the top of the 8th inning. The Twins are up 4-3. The Reds would score in the 8th and 9th to take a 5-4 Lead. Larnach's spot now occupied by Outman comes up in the order with two out in the bottom or the 9th. Wallner pinch hits and K's to end the game. Outman at that point was 0 for 18. Wallner had an OPS of .613. I'd like to enter another point at this moment. There has been measured evidence, articles in the tribune and other sources along with discussion in this very thread about his inability to hit 95+ Fastballs as the reason he must go away. The Two pitchers he has sat against up to this point in the season were Eric Lauer and Andrew Abbott. Eric Lauer couldn't reach 95 plus with his fastball if he Happy Gilmored himself forward. Andrew Abbott can pump one up there on occasion but typically sits in the low 90's. Just more food for the overall thought. As you point out... his rest is becoming more frequent now. He sits again the next day against Cincinnati. This time it's right hander Brady Singer starting for the Reds. Josh Outman starts in RF (He went 2-4). 18 out 21 starts for Wallner. He sits the 3rd game of 3 game series against the Mets. 21 out of 25. He starts the next 4 games after that OPS falls from .620 to .564. He takes a seat on April 28th. He is now at 25 out of 30 games. The Twins are really losing patience now. Austin Martin is now getting RF starts against Right Handers. Wallner starts on April 29 and then sits the next two games. He ends April with 95 AB - 41 K's and .559 OPS. His utilization sits at 26 games out of 33 on May 1 despite turning to Martin more. He has 10 games left to live. He starts 7 of them. The first 3 games of his final 7... he actually goes 4 for 11 with only 1 strikeout. He finished the last 4 with no hits and 11 K's over his last 14. He throws up on his wife. She asks for a divorce. Yes his playtime was diminished... but despite his slightly diminished playing time and deservedly so... he remained the primary until Poof. On May 14... Outman was in LF, Kreidler was in CF and Martin was in RF to face Braxton Garrett. According to Statcast. He faced 54% fastballs. I don't know how many of those fastballs were over 95 mph. But... I'll go back to my point. Didn't the Twins know he had a drinking problem when they renewed their vows by naming him the starting RF and provided Outman as his backup? Was it possible: The Twins didn't suddenly discover that Wallner was susceptible to fastballs. Wallner wasn't discarded when the Twins first recognized his deficiencies. He was discarded when their willingness to tolerate those deficiencies ran out with a 19-24 record. How can anyone refuse to consider possibility of over reaction? If this is indeed the end. Or refuse to consider the possibility that they walked a tight rope with Wallner with no safety net. Knowing what they quite possibly knew.
  8. I’ve been calling it the wall. They need to mitigate the upcoming crash into that wall. If the plan is for the expiring contracts to lead the way in 2027. They certainly could do it. However… after the season concludes. It’s a full speed crash into that wall and it won’t be pretty. thats why I advocate signing at least one upper level starter this off season to a multi year deal despite the current depth and trading off two (Ober and Kremer) to make sure youth is served in the 5th rotation spot. I think it’s a critical move.
  9. I believe all front offices are capable of these type of mistakes. Not only capable but they all make them routinely. I'm just trying real hard to point it out so others see it and start questioning it. His fall from everyday RF to get the hell out of here was about as North South Pole as it can get. I want everyone to think about that. From there... I can tie it to the role player replacement we subsist on every year and not having safety nets for this as it's happening in the face of front office mistakes. As well as the unforeseen injuries. It stands to reason that If they can miss on the upside... they can miss on the downside. In this particular case... It's not ramming Royce Lewis over and over again until he gets it right. This was a 1 month complete assessment reverse. Same with SWR. It should send chills down everyone's spine in the face of 26 and 40 man limitations. Especially on a team that can't pave over the mistakes with Cash.
  10. Could very well be. So... if that is the consensus on this board and the front office... it is what it is. It still leaves the original question: How does this giant hole in his swing develop so quickly? If the giant hole was apparent in March... How can a front office place him in such a prominent role to start the season. Keep him in the prominent role. And then... pull the plug... not to be plugged in again. This has become a Wallner discussion and I understand that was the natural path it would take. The true question is... Assessment in March and Assessment in May. It happened fast. Doesn't that make anyone question the accuracy of assessments... Positive or negative assessments. If they were wrong in March... Couldn't they be wrong in May.
  11. Jose Miranda and Eddie Julien could be acquired for minor league contracts. Perhaps that is the fate of Matt Wallner.
  12. If the Twins are serious about contending, they need to trade for a King Kong bat at first base. Pair that new addition with a resurrected 2024 Matt Wallner and a healthy 2023 Royce Lewis, and you instantly have three King Kong bats in the lineup. I'd rather bet on that kind of explosive talent than waste roster spots on low-impact role players. Wallner’s sudden drop from everyday starter to completely forgotten is still mind-boggling, but you don't swap that kind of potential for a safe bench piece. If Wallner is done. They better be right. Because... If he becomes king kong elsewhere while we Josh Bell this thing for another year. Another year goes by and our goals are further away.
  13. The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me. I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE. Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary. Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million. Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher. That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. Now let's talk about an extension. A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment. Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return. If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies. It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do. They actually did well with José Berríos. Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment. But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him. After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move. Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return. SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment. Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value. And that's the bigger problem. If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment. In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach. The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value. You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else. That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York. Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play.
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