Riverbrian

Big Game - Need a W Gavin Williams has stronger splits against left handed hitters. Therefore no Larnach and no Roden against the right hander. This will be the third time we have faced him this season. July 2nd was the last time. We lost the game 5-2. Larnach, Clemens Gray and Roden were in the lineup and went a combined 1 for 13. Only a hit by Gray. Switch hitters Lee and Bell went 0-8. The Twins only managed 3 hits total that game so it's not like our right handers were killing. In addition to the RBI single by Gray. Lewis had two hits including a home run. The first time we faced him was May 10 and we won that game 5-4. Larnach and Clemens were in the lineup and went a combined 4-8 aided by Kody going 3-4. If you factor in the the three switch hitters who hit from left handed batters box... Lee and Bell with one pinch hit appearance by Caratini against lefty Tim Herrin in the 9th. They also went 4-8. Which Williams will show up?

Starting Lineups are set primarily based on the what hand the starting pitcher throws with. The starting lineup gets the majority of the AB's in a game, the starting lineup makes the majority of defensive plays and the starting lineup does the majority of the baserunning in a baseball game. So... anything that is a primary factor in the determination of who starts a baseball game is quite significant. I have no doubt in mind... it is fact that our starting lineups are primarily determined by what hand the starting pitcher throws with. There are slight adjustments made but primarily... starting lineups are primarily determined by the hand of the starting pitcher. Major league pitching is 72% right handed and 28% left handed. That's everyone. We have zero pitching that throw with their feet unless you include Tyler Rogers. Our current roster goes against the averages. Our current roster contains three pure left handed hitters (Larnach, Clemens and Roden) and 3 switch hitters (Bell, Lewis and Caratini). That leaves 7 Right handed hitters to round out the roster. We can put 9 players in the starting lineup against the 28%. We currently put 6 batters max in the lineup against Right handers. Despite this disparity... Our hitting against right handed pitching has been great and is the the primary reason that we are still in contention. Team starting pitching is ranked 24th in baseball in ERA. Our Bullpen is ranked 27th in ERA. We are 5th in Team OPS vs Right Handed Pitching We are 26th in Team OPS vs Left Handed Pitching. We are 38-34 against right handed starters and 12-19 against left handed starters.

Not only did the Twins score 10 runs last night but they scored 10 runs without their two best hitters statistically. Jeffers and Buxton with a .950 OPS and .902 OPS respectively did not play. The Twins still have the top run producing offense in the American League with 4.81 Runs Per Game. The Twins average 5.01 Runs Scored per game vs Right Handed Starters and they have a 38-34 record when Right Handers Start the Game against them. The Twins average 4.29 Runs scored per game vs Left Handed Starters and they have a 12-19 Record when Left Handes start the game against them. The disparity is getting pronounced despite jamming the lineup with 8 players in right handed batters box against the southpaws and still struggling. Switch hitters Bell and Lee lead the team in AB's vs Left Handers. Bell is decent against them... 5th best on the team with a .710 OPS. Lee... has work to do with a .610 OPS against lefties. For comparison purposes... Trevor Larnach had a .608 OPS against lefties last season. The only left handed hitter we deploy against left handed pitchers is Kody Clemens. Kody is ranked 4th in OPS against left handed pitching with a .724. Cody had a .482 OPS in 89 PA''s against left handed pitching last year. In his prior seasons. Kody had a total of 21, 19 and 22 PA's against left handed pitching. The Twins are 7th in MLB in runs scored per game. There are 6 NL Teams with more runs scored per game. Yeah you can guess Dodgers, Cubs and Braves in that top 6 and you would be correct with and teams 3, 4 and 6. The Nats are #1 with an enormous 5.50 Runs per game. The Nats have 10 out of 13 players on their 26 man roster under 3 years experience. The Pirates and Esmerlyn (Who is this guy) Valdez are #2 and the Brewers #5. The good news is that we do face a Right Handed Pitcher this morning. We will stack the Left Handed Batters Box with 5 players at most if Caratini is hurt. 4 players if either Larnach, Clemens, Roden, Lee or Bell need a day.

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 22 - Slade Cecconi - Won - 10 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 38-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 5.01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters 4,29

Last Game Left Handed Starter July 21 - Parker Messick - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 2 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.29 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs RH Starters: Season Record vs RH Starters: 37-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.94

The 2 1 and 2 occurred against left handed starters. The 4 occurred against a right handed starter. Our Twins are 37-34 against Right Handed Starters and 12-19 against Left Handed Starters

Agreed That asymmetry is what has me started on this journey. I've made the contention that if you want to play the splits correctly. It isn't a left/right handcuff that only lasts as long as injuries allow them to last... it's rostering players who can primarily hit the 72%. I recognize the platoon split advantage. There are a lot of AB's over time that consistently show left vs left is the worst hitting matchup and left vs a right handed pitcher is the best hitting matchup. In other words... more left handers in the lineup is playing the split correct... more left handed pitchers in the rotation and in the pen is playing the split correctly. But forget all of that. You and I both know that this conversation is about talent... I could care less what batters box they stand in and I'm growing concerned that the conversation ceases to be about talent when teams are trying to math this thing together by making the platoon split the PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR LINEUP CONSTRUCTION. So I'm checking Wins and Losses to see if there is any reason for the platoon split to be that primary mechanism. Larnach and Wallner facing 72% of the pitching is going to require two roster spots of players to face the 28%. You are right... Kyler Fedko isn't going to be afforded that leniency. Austin Martin is also going to develop into nothing and the Twins need to develop. Not only to staff a 40 man roster with players that make the minimum but also for future trade value. Folks on Twinsdaily are talking about trading Larnach and in the same breath they say he doesn't have any value. Well,.. would we have more value coming back in a trade for Trevor Larnach if he could OPS .700 vs lefties. Yeah it's less than what he does vs right handers but still functional. What trade value can be gained if you just deny from the very beginning? If you deny from the beginning are you even trying to increase trade value. So... the question becomes... what do you gain in the short term? Does it win games now? That's why we rob the future... to win games right now!!! That's why I'm tracking win and losses. W's is why they do it. Have your SABR buddies run the numbers on a per AB basis. .343 OBP vs a .275 OBP. What exactly is the advantaged gained on a per AB or per game basis when it takes a larger sample to produce those differences. Gain? Cost? Did we win enough to justify the death of Austin Martin? Because we have to kill an Austin Martin in order to rob Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff or Matt Wallner or Julien. Or pay 4 or 7 million for a Margot or Grichuk. Did we lose every game Keirsay started last year? We were 11 and 10 in games that Keirsay started on a team that was 70-92. Would we have been 15-6 in those games if he wasn't allowed to play? Nature or nurture? Kody Clemens is currently our 4th highest OPS against lefties. Is that nature or nurture? I'm not sure Kody Clemens has been nurtured against either hands with his total plate appearances over 5 years. He wouldn't be facing lefties at all if Wallner was still around. Larnach has a .588 career OPS over his career. That's not good but it can't be denied that there has been no attempt other than last year to nurture it. You and I both know that .588 isn't static. Wouldn't it stand to reason that if a player is in a hot streak that that streakiness would also apply to matchups against left handers as well. If you are seeing the ball good you are seeing the ball good. I recognize the platoon advantage... it's real. But at what gain and at what cost. Just develop hitters. This season... I can tell you... We got a bunch of right handers on the roster who can't hit left handed pitching. What are we developing? Kriedler? Why doesn't anyone question this?

With the activation of Buxton and the demotion of Gray. The Twins 26 man roster is now composed of 7 Right Handed Bats - 3 Switch Hitters and 3 Left Handed Bats. I track these roster moves when they happen along with daily starting lineup composition for utilization purposes. I track utilization to use in conjunction with season record vs and season average runs scored. I've posted a few times the reason why I track these things. I believe it is fact: That starting lineups are primarily set based on what hand the starting pitcher throws with. I also believe that it is fact that starting lineups do the overwhelming bulk of the work. They get the majority of plate appearances... they do the baserunning and they are the ones who make the overwhelming majority of the defensive plays that occur during a game. In other words... The starting lineup gets the playing time that contributes to wins and losses in all facets of the game. The starting lineup is primarily influenced by the hand of the starter. I'm tracking Wins and Losses to see the result of this method of lineup determination. I have posted multiple times in this thread. I understand that this basic research. I purposely don't want additional metrics crammed into this. Win and Losses... the reason for everything is what I want. I understand that there are many factors that go into an end result. Joe Ryan giving up 6 home runs in 4 innings of work is a major factor and I understand this. What I am seeing thus far. We have the platoon advantage against left handed pitchers because we are able to stuff 8 batters even 9 batters in the right handed batters box against left handed pitchers. Against right handers... we have had 4 left handed hitters and are now down to 3. With 3 switch hitters we can send 6 batters in the left handed batters box against right handed hitters. This team does better against right handed starters despite having less of a platoon advantage.

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 20 - Tanner Bibee - Loss - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 37-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.94 --------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-18 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.37

Gonna be tight on the dirt.

At the all-star break... The Twins have 17 players with less than 3 years experience. That is tied with the Brewers and Pirates for 7th most. Of those top 9 youth led teams... the Marlins, Cards, Nats, A's Guardians, White Sox, Brewers, Pirates and Twins. Only the A's are clearly out of contention so experience doesn't seem to be an issue with other squads. Of the 17 players currently on the Twins roster. 10 are pitchers - 7 are hitters. Of the 7 hitters. Clemens, Kriedler, Gray are 3 of them. 2 of them... Martin and Roden are being strip mined for parts and will not be developed comprehensively. The other two Keaschall and Lee are being allowed to have a future. Hope they work out. I don't believe we have built anything. Opening Day Nats: 20 - Payroll 97 - All Star Break: 19 -- 48-49 Opening Day Cards: 19 - Payroll 99 - All Star Break: 20 -- 50-45 Opening Day White Sox: 18 - Payroll 87 - All Star Break: 19 -- 50-45 Opening Day Marlins: 18 - Payroll 73 - All Star Break: 23 -- 52-45 Opening Day Guardians: 18 - Payroll 84 - All Star Break: 19 -- 51-46 Opening Day Rockies: 16 - Payroll 122 - All Star Break: 15 -- 39-50 Opening Day A's: 16 - Payroll 95 - All Star Break: 20 -- 41-55 Opening Day Giants: 15 - Payroll 204 - All Star Break: 15 -- 41-55 Opening Day Twins: 14 - Payroll 107 - All Star Break: 17 -- 48-49 Opening Day Brewers: 14 - Payroll 129 - All Star Break: 17 -- 59-37 Opening Day Rays: 14 - Payroll 88 - All Star Break: 14 -- 56-38 Opening Day Pirates: 14 - Payroll 105 - All Star Break: 17 -- 50-47 Opening Day Astros: 12 - Payroll 237 - All Star Break: 10 -- 47-51 Opening Day Dodgers: 12 - Payroll 397 - All Star Break: 13 -- 61-36 Opening Day Red Sox: 12 - Payroll 196 - All Star Break: 16 -- 46-48 Opening Day Orioles: 11 - Payroll 166 - All Star Break: 11 -- 46-51 Opening Day Jays: 11 - Payroll 289 - All Star Break: 12 -- 45-51 Opening Day Mariners: 11 - Payroll 162 - All Star Break: 14 -- 48-49 Opening Day Reds: 11 - Payroll 126 - All Star Break: 10 -- 43-52 Opening Day Padres: 10 - Payroll 208 - All Star Break: 11 -- 48-48 Opening Day Angels: 10 - Payroll 183 - All Star Break: 15 -- 38-59 Opening Day Tigers: 9 - Payroll 217 - All Star Break: 12 -- 44-52 Opening Day Cubs: 9 - Payroll 233 - All Star Break: 10 -- 54-42 Opening Day Royals: 8 - Payroll 149 - All Star Break: 10 -- 38-59 Opening Day Mets: 8 - Payroll 366 - All Star Break: 12 -- 40-57 Opening Day Rangers: 8 - Payroll 186 - All Star Break: 13 -- 49-57 Opening Day Yankees: 8 - Payroll 319 - All Star Break: 7 -- 54-42: Opening Day D-Backs: 6 - Payroll 196 - All Star Break: 11 -- 49-47 Opening Day Phillies: 6 - Payroll 285 - All Star Break 7 -- 54-43 Opening Day Braves; 5 - Payroll 250 - All Star Break 11 -- 55-40

Last Game Left Handed Starter July 19 - Shota Imanaga - Loss - 1 Run Scored Lineup Composition: 5 RH 3 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-18 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.37 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Right Handed Starters Season Record vs RH Starters: 37-33 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.96

No doubt that there would have been a contingent of TD faithful screaming to trade Spencer Steer. I wouldn't have been one of them. 4 straight years of 20 homers. His average performance years in 2024 and 2025 would have been better than multiple Twins players in those years. Wouldn't have needed France with Steer. Possible wouldn't have needed Margot. Not knocking the trade... If you want a starter... they come with a price tag.

July 17 - Right Handed Starter - Colin Rea - Won - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 2 Switch 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 37-33 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.96 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- July 18 - Left Handed Starters - Matthew Boyd - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 3 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.48

Before the season started I marked the total of players with under 3 years experience on every roster. Along with payroll. Here at the all star break... I'm going to update the number of players with under 3 years experience and the current record of every team. Since there hasn't been a lot of trades to explain the number changes... it is safe to assume that injuries that increases and decreases in the total number of players under 3 years of experience are primarily explained by injuries. I ask you to draw your own conclusions. I've already drawn mine by tracking this for a couple of years now. There isn't a one sized fits all explanation for the number of players making the minimum, payroll and 2026 record. High numbers of players under 3 years experience doesn't mean wins and it doesn't mean losses and low number of players under 3 years experience doesn't mean losses and it doesn't mean wins. Talent and performance. My conclusion drawn has always been: There is enough youth on rosters that perform as well or better... or worse than the veteran player making more than the minimum eating away at budgets. Typically players under 3 years experience make the minimum. A higher number of players making the minimum means less spots to fill and more money to fill them with making youth critical to almost all organizations. The fact that there is no one size fits all shows that there is no reason to be afraid of youth. But again... draw your own conclusions. 2026 looks a lot like 2025 and a lot like 2024. I wasn't really looking at it in 2023 or earlier years. Is youth a problem on rosters? It doesn't seem to be a problem. Opening Day Nats: 20 - Payroll 97 - All Star Break: 19 -- 48-49 Opening Day Cards: 19 - Payroll 99 - All Star Break: 20 -- 50-45 Opening Day White Sox: 18 - Payroll 87 - All Star Break: 19 -- 50-45 Opening Day Marlins: 18 - Payroll 73 - All Star Break: 23 -- 52-45 Opening Day Guardians: 18 - Payroll 84 - All Star Break: 19 -- 51-46 Opening Day Rockies: 16 - Payroll 122 - All Star Break: 15 -- 39-50 Opening Day A's: 16 - Payroll 95 - All Star Break: 20 -- 41-55 Opening Day Giants: 15 - Payroll 204 - All Star Break: 15 -- 41-55 Opening Day Twins: 14 - Payroll 107 - All Star Break: 17 -- 48-49 Opening Day Brewers: 14 - Payroll 129 - All Star Break: 17 -- 59-37 Opening Day Rays: 14 - Payroll 88 - All Star Break: 14 -- 56-38 Opening Day Pirates: 14 - Payroll 105 - All Star Break: 17 -- 50-47 Opening Day Astros: 12 - Payroll 237 - All Star Break: 10 -- 47-51 Opening Day Dodgers: 12 - Payroll 397 - All Star Break: 13 -- 61-36 Opening Day Red Sox: 12 - Payroll 196 - All Star Break: 16 -- 46-48 Opening Day Orioles: 11 - Payroll 166 - All Star Break: 11 -- 46-51 Opening Day Jays: 11 - Payroll 289 - All Star Break: 12 -- 45-51 Opening Day Mariners: 11 - Payroll 162 - All Star Break: 14 -- 48-49 Opening Day Reds: 11 - Payroll 126 - All Star Break: 10 -- 43-52 Opening Day Padres: 10 - Payroll 208 - All Star Break: 11 -- 48-48 Opening Day Angels: 10 - Payroll 183 - All Star Break: 15 -- 38-59 Opening Day Tigers: 9 - Payroll 217 - All Star Break: 12 -- 44-52 Opening Day Cubs: 9 - Payroll 233 - All Star Break: 10 -- 54-42 Opening Day Royals: 8 - Payroll 149 - All Star Break: 10 -- 38-59 Opening Day Mets: 8 - Payroll 366 - All Star Break: 12 -- 40-57 Opening Day Rangers: 8 - Payroll 186 - All Star Break: 13 -- 49-57 Opening Day Yankees: 8 - Payroll 319 - All Star Break: 7 -- 54-42: Opening Day D-Backs: 6 - Payroll 196 - All Star Break: 11 -- 49-47 Opening Day Phillies: 6 - Payroll 285 - All Star Break 7 -- 54-43 Opening Day Braves; 5 - Payroll 250 - All Star Break 11 -- 55-40

I could be wrong but I don't see increased or even peak value. Jeffers will be available to the acquiring team for two months. I'm sure the Yankees would love to acquire him but his value logically would be much higher if the acquiring team had him for a full year instead of two months. No doubt that Jeffers has been hitting fantastically and he may fetch a decent prospect but Jeffers has always been an upper level hitting catcher. A full year vs two months. I don't see increased or peak value. The closest comp I can find for a catcher rental was our old friend Christian Vazquez back when he actually hit the ball... when he was traded from the Red Sox to the Astros as a two month rental. The Red Sox did great in that trade because of the performance of Wilyer Abreu but that wasn't predicted by anyone because Wilyer and Enmanual Valdez were the 30th and 29th ranked prospects in the Astros system. I hope no one is expecting a major league ready reliever in return. The teams that need Jeffers is also going to need their relievers. It's a prospect deal most likely and the Twins are currently buyers not sellers. Caratini is actually statistically worse than he has been the past two seasons. Lower BA... Lower Slug but he does have time to make that up. However... the Twins already out bid all of the other teams for his services. Unless we throw in money... I don't see peak value with Caratini. Besides... the Twins will need catchers next year. Caratini is signed... the Twins shouldn't move him. I'll concede that Jackson may be peak value. They are obviously reluctant to try and get him through waivers but... I'm not sure that Jackson at peak value provides a return. I think in the end... Jeffers needs to be traded for prospects to replace the prospects that we will be trading for relievers.

None of our catchers are peaking in regards to trade value. Jeffers is now a rental. Caratini has a contract with a higher dollar amount than the other 29 teams were willing to pay. Jackson will certainly not exceed the value of Jeffers or Caratini.

Maybe... I have no idea how the market will pay out. Competition for his services should drive the price up but I'm under the impression that major league front offices are pretty disciplined. I agree that he will most likely be the top catcher in the free agent market. To my knowledge... only two catchers have been offered a QO since 2018 and both declined. Grandal was offered a 17.9 QO. Turned it down and he signed for 18.7 One Year. Realmuto was offered a 18.9. Turned it down and he signed for 5 years/123 million. Realmuto was coming off three years of .825, .820, .840 OPS which is something Jeffers achieved once in 2023. I'm not knocking Jeffers but the QO should be around 23 million and we don't have a lot of precedence set at the catcher position.

You are correct. It doesn't tell the whole story. However... I wasn't clear about why I chose Cal Raleigh in the first place. He was chosen because the he is the current owner of the highest AAV for a catcher in baseball. The most important point is this. No catcher is paid anywhere near the expected QO. Cal Raleigh is pretty special.

There are currently no catchers making 20 million a year. Cal Raleigh has an AAV of 17.5 If a QO is offered. Jeffers will take it.

July 10 - Right Handed Starter - Grayson Rodriguez - Loss - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 2 Switch - 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 34-33 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.97 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- July 11 - Right Handed Starter - Ryan Johnson - Won - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 2 RH - 3 Switch - 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 35-33 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.97 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- July 12 - Right Handed Starter - Jose Soriano - Won - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH - 2 Switch - 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 35 - 33 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.57

Taj without a doubt.

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 9 - Gavin Williams - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH - 2 Switch - 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 34-32 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 5.00 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.57

The front offices don't know. They know better than you and I but they don't know. The Twins acquired Kody Clemens on April 26 when Keaschall got hurt. Baldelli sat on Clemens until May 14. He was given the Fedko treatment until Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton collided with each other and suddenly Baldelli had no choice but to give this stranger a shot. Baldelli didn't know. If he knew... he would have inserted Clemens into the lineup on April 27. If Clemens struggles just a little when they have nobody else to turn to... he isn't here today. Kody went 11 for 22 once he got opportunity.,, that gave him more opportunity. If he was right handed... he would have been platooned off the radar. His survival took multiple injuries including a collision of super stars... it took exact hot streak timing... it took having no one else to turn to. It took being left handed and not right handed to survive the platoon killing floor. Yeah... absolutely... the Twins got lucky... they didn't know. The Twins got lucky and they had to be incredibly unlucky just to get this incredibly lucky.

I wasn't happy with his original signing because I wasn't happy with the lack of internal options that made his signing necessary. That had nothing to do with Clemens himself. I'm glad he got opportunity to show what he was capable of. Using qualified hitters only. BY OPS... he is currently the 42nd best hitter in baseball in 2026. We hope that our prospects develop into that. We should be thankful for the free addition of Kody Clemens. For those who can't warm to him after what he has done this season while making the minimum... I'm not sure what to say. What would it take for them to get behind him? Perhaps nothing because he's been pretty damn good and there are way too many people who are not behind him.