Riverbrian

I’ve been calling it the wall. They need to mitigate the upcoming crash into that wall. If the plan is for the expiring contracts to lead the way in 2027. They certainly could do it. However… after the season concludes. It’s a full speed crash into that wall and it won’t be pretty. thats why I advocate signing at least one upper level starter this off season to a multi year deal despite the current depth and trading off two (Ober and Kremer) to make sure youth is served in the 5th rotation spot. I think it’s a critical move.

I believe all front offices are capable of these type of mistakes. Not only capable but they all make them routinely. I'm just trying real hard to point it out so others see it and start questioning it. His fall from everyday RF to get the hell out of here was about as North South Pole as it can get. I want everyone to think about that. From there... I can tie it to the role player replacement we subsist on every year and not having safety nets for this as it's happening in the face of front office mistakes. As well as the unforeseen injuries. It stands to reason that If they can miss on the upside... they can miss on the downside. In this particular case... It's not ramming Royce Lewis over and over again until he gets it right. This was a 1 month complete assessment reverse. Same with SWR. It should send chills down everyone's spine in the face of 26 and 40 man limitations. Especially on a team that can't pave over the mistakes with Cash.

Could very well be. So... if that is the consensus on this board and the front office... it is what it is. It still leaves the original question: How does this giant hole in his swing develop so quickly? If the giant hole was apparent in March... How can a front office place him in such a prominent role to start the season. Keep him in the prominent role. And then... pull the plug... not to be plugged in again. This has become a Wallner discussion and I understand that was the natural path it would take. The true question is... Assessment in March and Assessment in May. It happened fast. Doesn't that make anyone question the accuracy of assessments... Positive or negative assessments. If they were wrong in March... Couldn't they be wrong in May.

Jose Miranda and Eddie Julien could be acquired for minor league contracts. Perhaps that is the fate of Matt Wallner.

If the Twins are serious about contending, they need to trade for a King Kong bat at first base. Pair that new addition with a resurrected 2024 Matt Wallner and a healthy 2023 Royce Lewis, and you instantly have three King Kong bats in the lineup. I'd rather bet on that kind of explosive talent than waste roster spots on low-impact role players. Wallner’s sudden drop from everyday starter to completely forgotten is still mind-boggling, but you don't swap that kind of potential for a safe bench piece. If Wallner is done. They better be right. Because... If he becomes king kong elsewhere while we Josh Bell this thing for another year. Another year goes by and our goals are further away.

The definition of homegrown? Whatever you all decide will be just fine with me. I recommend not getting distracted by that debate because this is really about one thing: VALUE. Joe Ryan probably had a value of $7–9 million when the Twins acquired him. Nelson Cruz was having a tremendous season. At the time of the trade, he was hitting .294 with a .907 OPS, 19 home runs and 50 RBI. He was a two-month rental with approximately $5 million in remaining salary. Tampa Bay decided it was worth taking on that salary and giving up Joe Ryan and Drew Strotman to get a King Kong bat for the stretch run. The Twins also received minor-league pitcher Calvin Faucher in the transaction who is currently a pretty good relief pitcher for the Marlins right now. Faucher is value that walked out the door. Fast forward to Joe Ryan's time with the Twins. His trade value probably peaked somewhere in the upper $60 million range. Today, I would estimate it's considerably lower, perhaps around $17 million. Those are my estimates, but consider the opportunity cost. The Twins potentially passed up an opportunity to acquire a Walker Jenkins-type prospect or perhaps two Culpepper-type prospects by holding onto Ryan rather than trading him when his value was higher. That's what I'm talking about. It's not just what a player gives you on the field. It's also what you could have received in exchange for him. The extreme value comes from young talent with years of control at a low price tag. The Twins need to get better at this and I'm not convinced they are even trying. Now let's talk about an extension. A Joe Ryan extension would probably cost at least $100 million over four years. That's a $25 million annual commitment. Here's the important part: You would be eliminating much of his surplus trade value. It doesn't mean Ryan suddenly becomes a worse pitcher. It means you've committed a substantial amount of money to his projected production, making him much more difficult to trade without retaining salary or accepting a lesser return. If you believe in Ryan, you can certainly make that commitment. But you have to understand what $25 million a year does to your budget. The Twins are not the Phillies. It's about value. The Twins need to understand value a whole lot better than they do. They actually did well with José Berríos. Berríos had approximately one-plus seasons of control remaining when the Twins traded him to Toronto. The Jays probably overpaid at the time. Austin Martin was their No. 2 prospect, and Simeon Woods Richardson was their No. 4. Both were highly regarded prospects, and Martin was also a top-20 prospect in all of baseball. The Jays were willing to pay that price because they wanted Berríos in their rotation for the long haul. He was still in his 20s, and they believed he was worth a substantial long-term commitment. But the moment Berríos signed that extension, the economics of his contract changed. His surplus trade value took a significant hit. That's perfectly fine for Toronto if its intention was to keep him for the duration of the contract. But it changes the equation if you're trying to trade him. After some rough years and declining performance relative to his salary, Berríos has become a much more difficult contract to move. Unfortunately, the Twins have also struggled to convert the value of the two highly ranked prospects they received in return. SWR is no longer with the organization. We essentially gave up on that investment. Austin Martin, who had tremendous value as a prospect at the time of the trade, has yet to develop into the everyday impact player the Twins hoped they were getting. His current role has been more of a utility player than the kind of player who generates significant trade value. And that's the bigger problem. If the question is whether the Twins should extend Joe Ryan, the answer is that they certainly could. But the organization has to produce VALUE elsewhere to offset that financial commitment. In other words, they can't afford to make the same mistakes with Austin Martin and SWR. They can't turn Emmanuel Rodriguez into another Trevor Larnach. The Twins have to get better at recognizing, developing, preserving and converting player value. You can't continually spend the organization's accumulated value without replenishing it somewhere else. That's how organizations like Cleveland and Milwaukee remain competitive without the financial resources of Philadelphia or New York. Get in the correct sandbox before you start to play.

You would also have to account for the fact that the Twins behavior toward him in 2026 and his availability is a value signal for any team thinking about acquiring him. It reminds me of a joke. The Twins may have just made sure he's dead.

I assume the same. Weather he can be traded or if he signs a minor league contract with the Rockies or Padres. I don't know the answer to that. My other assumption is this: If he returns to 155 wRC+ with the Rockies. He becomes the next Rooker and the front office will have to answer for that when they are trying to figure out how to get some offense in 2027 and 2028. All I can do is simply wonder how he went from up here to down here in the span of a month.

I want a clean slate for the sake of this next wave that has hit our shores. Larnach is a dirty slate and I will defend Larnach until the cows come home. It certainly can't be ruled out for a team that has declared to go for it. Larnach will make sense in the way they have done things much like Larnach may make sense for a team like the Padres who is trying to rebuild a bit.

If the Twins did what you propose and had been doing what you propose. I wouldn't have reached the point I'm at with it. Partial exposure is better than no exposure. It's a sensible use of the platoon like other teams do as opposed to blanket out of the box over powering use of the platoon. What you propose allows for development and protection at the same time. I don't trust the Twins to do what you propose. I don't trust the Twins to do what I propose. They will have to show me that they understand the damage they have done in regards to development.

I think we are on the same page... We are just separated by the price of the potential toll to drive on that interstate. It may have changed in spring training. However... based on utilization in the beginning of the season. It sure looked like Bell at DH with Clemens/Caratini doing the platoon dance at 1B. When the off-season plans fell apart or started to crack. Bell started picking up more 1B out of necessity. Clemens started hitting against left handers out of necessity and Caratini eventually became the everyday catcher out of necessity due to the injury to Ryan Jeffers. To take that further... Keaschall was moved to the OF out of necessity, Lee was moved to 3B out of necessity. Clemens to 2B out of necessity. Lewis to 1B out of necessity. Gray and Kriedler were our SS's out of necessity. None of these necessities... were part of the off-season planning. It was an extraordinary amount of moves out of necessity that all deviated from the original off-season plan. It's why... I'm a broken record about the critical importance to staff the roster to the hilt. Stop with the specialists... such as DH or platoon players or pinch runners. A full time DH removes the flexibility to address the unforeseen necessities that happen every single year. The "DH specialist" is a luxury modern MLB rosters cannot afford, because unexpected injuries or terrible play will always rewrite the script.

Agreed... It will always come down to better decisions... no matter the rules of the game. However, if the Owners get anything close to what they are proposing. The roster building tools available to a team like the Twins change.

Just preparing everyone for the possibility of a full time DH already in house. Trevor Larnach is his name.

My desire to move on from Larnach has nothing to do with Larnach. I'm a big fan of Larnach. However... we need to clean the slate and remove all specialists so we can start fresh with the next wave for a better today and a much stronger tomorrow.

It's the perpetual yearly attempt at scraping by today while mostly ignoring tomorrow. Meanwhile we are beaten routinely by teams today by organizations that make decisions based on tomorrow. It's attempting to be Philadelphia without the money to be Philadelphia. Instead of attempting to be Milwaukee or Cleveland with more money to spend then they do. Unless the CBA changes everything. It has to stop.

I agree and I am a naturally resistant to any form of black and white because the truth is almost always in the middle. We can't use collective stats to make a blanket decision on DH rotation. They have to be individual decisions with the individual players. If a player truly struggles at it. You either avoid the situation by choosing someone else to serve as DH for that game or you continue to expose him to it until it isn't such a drain or mental stumbling block. The question is... What kind of damage is done in an individual game with one individual. It probably isn't significant for one individual game. Buxton for example had an OPS of .829 when playing CF and a .741 when in the DH spot. His numbers suggest that he does better as a CF. But, it's not like he can't perform at the DH spot and sometimes... the manager just may want to get him off his feet for a game. I'm willing to bet that a .741 OPS contains a 3 for 4 game in there somewhere.

The DH spot can be a rotation and an opportunity to use the DH that makes the most sense out of the defensive choices. If you have Keaschall, Emma, Buxton and Jenkins in the lineup. Keaschall would be the natural choice to DH for that game. I'm not sure about the "DH Penalty". There is evidence that there is a DH penalty. However, That's collective involving many players over a long period of time. It doesn't address individual's where some are fine and some are not. You would also have to factor in that sometimes players play DH due to injury and the injury can effect (or affect) performance at the DH position. Regardless... the DH penalty wouldn't be strong enough to be a problem in the small sample size of one game.

Keeping both Larnach and Austin Martin on the roster is a trap. Rostering Larnach forces management to carry Martin as his right-handed platoon shield, which immediately blocks Walker Jenkins and forces him down to AAA to at least start the year. Without Larnach... Martin's role-player status will attach to Emmanuel Rodriguez’s development. Which will in turn, turn Emma into a future Larnach... forever dependent upon more Austin Martin specialization. Martin's presence on the roster will also ensure that Gonzalez is called up over Jenkins if Martin gets hurt. Unless Martin goes to Triple-A (or gets traded) to learn how to hit righties, he has almost zero long-term value to this team and very little current value since his short side status will be over run by the need to hit right handers anyway. If you want to escape this trap. They have to stop rostering role players that just feed the same machine over and over again. Choose a roster based on talent. Realized or unrealized talent.

NO The DH position should be used for additional playing time to accommodate the talented depth that the organization needs to staff the roster with... in order to build a roster for 162 games. And it was Tom Pohlad who stated correctly that last years roster was not built for 162 games. A DH and Role Players is going to repeat 2026 all over again. You will need the DH spot in order to stop your dependence on Role Players. Unless they are bringing in a King Kong Bat for the DH position like a Nelson Cruz. The Answer is NO. Josh Bell is a fine hitter... He is not a King Kong Bat. Instead of carrying a one-dimensional slugger who locks down the DH spot, a flexible roster allows an organization to carry multiple high-upside utility players or young prospects. It ensures that when an inevitable injury occurs, or a young player has an OPS of .400, the drop-off in production is minimized because the bench players have been getting regular at-bats. If you are going to staff your roster with talent. Staff your roster with talent and use the DH to make it work.

This touches on a possible explanation. Maybe Wallner wasn't listening? If an employee isn't listening it can lead to eventual abandonment and a therefore pretty stunning fall from grace.

I believe that Wallner is out of options. It's sink or swim time for him. Another complication. It can't be ruled out that Larnach is back next year. This team is going for it according to Tom Pohlad. Larnach was one of our better hitters against one hand of the sub species and he can DH next year with the addition of Emma and Emma is a required 26 man roster placement now. If Larnach is back. We all know that Martin has to be back because the Twins have methodically built Larnach over the years to require a Martin to handle the other smaller sub species of pitchers. Buxton, Keaschall, Emma, Larnach and Martin is your OF. No Wallner... No Jenkins.

Options are a very powerful thing. Having options available for minor league assignment is a powerful thing. Having options to replace him at the major league level is also a powerful thing. He was sent down when Trevor Larnach came of the IL with a toe injury to start the season. It was a pretty complicated stretch to start 2024. Lewis was hurt and that put Martin on the roster. Margot was also on the roster as a short side specialist. Kepler got hurt. So... I agree. The Commitment wasn't very strong in 2024. But... the commitment was pretty clear in 2026.

The Twins may have been absolutely right to send Wallner down. But that doesn't absolve them of the much bigger question: How did a player they had so recently committed to as an important part of their plans go from indispensable to apparently expendable in 135 plate appearances? And why was there no better contingency plan?

I was trying brevity. Last time I wasn't brief... you ran me through AI to shorten it. I was aware of his timeline. For the discussion I'm raising. I'll stand by Poof... He was gone. Since he went from full confidence to... never to return? Seemingly 135 PA's erased the 1,000 PA's of rather high OPS prior. They didn't just lose confidence... they reversed an organizational commitment in 135 PA's. If you'd like... I'll go with... he got drunk... stumbled around... threw up on his mother in law and his wife divorced him, 1 month after they renewed their vows in front of friends and family. If I were to lengthen it to add context... I would have mentioned the presence of role players Outman and Martin as his potential replacement while he was walking around the room with a lamp shade on his head. I could have gotten pretty detailed on his utilization. I've been watching utilization and posting on it. I could have mentioned that we faced 17 left handed pitchers in those fateful 43 games. He started 33 out of the 43 games. There were 11 games in May... He started 7 of those 11 games. Even hit as high as 5th in the order on May 7. That was 5 games before Poof... he was gone. It was still Wallner over Outman according to club assessment or according to Shelton's utilization. In those final 5 games in Twins uniform. . He started 3 of them. In those final 3 starts he went: K, FC, K, F8 - K, K, K, K - K, K, K, K. Poof. That's 10 K's in his last 12 PA's. Including 8 K's in his last 8. I was in complete agreement that he needed to be sent down. His timing was completely gone. In 3 games his OPS fell from a terrible .609 to a terrible .551. The Twins chose him... they backed him up with Outman. They tried hard to prove the concept. And now nobody believes he will be back. That is a stunning fall from grace. That was a stunning front office missed assessment. It is a possible overcorrection.