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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    If the question is would you rather go 60-102 or 80-82 that's a different question. Speaking for myself and probably 1 or 2 others. I just don't believe that going with youth automatically means 60-102 and I don't believe that vets mean 80-82. I'm not talking about the specific random numbers thrown out. It's the implication that youth is bad and vet is good or at least average that I'm not so sure about. Even if the youth is bad... At some point you'll have to turn your youth into vets... might as well get the process started. Cleveland and Tampa are routinely youthful and routinely competitive.
  2. Riverbrian
    There will be plenty of teams interested in Joe Ryan at this late date. Even teams that think they have the lions share of work done in roster construction. Some of those teams will receive bad news before February is up. Pablo Lopez won't be the last one in spring training with horrible news. When that happens to the Phillies or the Mets or the Mariners or the Astros or anyone that fancies themselves a contender. There will be less replacement options available to them because the lions share of work has been done. If Tom can just get past whatever... non baseball based strategy... that got him to this point. He might realize that Ryan has a different price tag now... a different desperation price tag attached to him. He has a choice. He can either take advantage of the desperation of the other teams or have his own desperation taken advantage of attempting to replace Lopez. I simply have no reason to believe that a baseball team in contention in 2026 is going to move the financial needle this year. I also have no reason to believe that 2027 will be any better... even if they can remain in contention in 2026. Every year... players are going to age out as we look keeping looking for Josh Bell over and over again.
  3. Riverbrian
    I know you and I mostly agree on the direction they should have gone. I also tend to think like you are here. Which... Well... this is the direction they are going. However.... I do believe it's not too late. Like Led Zeppelin said. "There's still time to change the road you're on". Attempting to replace Lopez with a Littell for example is a slippery slope. OK... you replaced him... what do you do in May when antother key player geos down. I think this is an early indication to do what they should have done. It's like the baseball gods are telling Tom Pohlad... OK... how about now? Trade Ryan and Jeffers get some young infielders in return. "Be a Rock and not a Roll".
  4. Riverbrian
    In this regard. The pitching doesn't worry me as much. I get it... Lopez and Ryan continuing to be Lopez and Ryan are vital because those are two very capable pitchers but at least we got a big group of replacements with potential that were going to be utilized at some point anyway during the 2026 season. The Infield on the other hand. Uff Da... we don't have near the talent level to absorb injuries or poor performance at every position. We are sitting with three infielders at 2B, 3B and SS who are prone to injury. Two coming off not very good seasons playing 3B and SS and a 2B who looked amazing in his first 182 AB's but has yet to reach 200 AB's and we have seen Lewis, Sano, Julien, Wallner and others look real good for 182 AB's before. Tristan Gray is going to be utilized heavily... count on it. He has to be decent. What will Kriedler do for us? The infield depth scares the pants on me... that's if I had pants. My pants are already scared off me by a potential Ryan injury that burns all of his current trade equity.
  5. Riverbrian
    The Twins need a Schittler or Yesavage type or two to rise up from the system. Shane Smith, Cameron, Patrick, Horton, Burrows, Misiorowski, Cantillo, Jobe, McLean, Waldrep, Ashcraft, Burns types. If that doesn't happen. 2027 will make 2026 seem like good times.
  6. Riverbrian
    I was sleeping in med school. This could be something it could be nothing but this was always a question of who and a question of when... it was never an "if" question. Multiple players are going to get hurt in 2026. Not just pitchers. Every year prior to this one. Is proof that multiple players will get hurt in 2026. Every year and every team in baseball is proof beyond a shadow of a doubt. We don't know who and we don't know when but it is going to happen, somewhere, somehow, someway. Logan Webb throwing 200 innings every year is a pretty rare accomplishment. Finding another pitcher with Webbish durability is extremely hard let alone finding three more to round out your rotation. In 2025... In all of MLB. 70 pitchers eclipsed 150 innings. Of those 70 that eclipsed 150 innings... 29 of them had ERA's higher than league average which shows that even if you find durability above average doesn't always come with it This Pablo thing may be something... it may be nothing... however... If Tom Pohlad, or anyone on this site was thinking that we got Ryan and Lopez so lets build around them. Oops!. That plan may not even make it out of February. Team success in 2026 was always going to depend on SWR, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Festa ETC. anyway.
  7. Riverbrian
    If I had to grade the off-season at this point. F is the only grade I can give. I hate giving out F's because it just lacks creativity. However... there are two reasons that I can't give at least a D-. A. They didn't go the direction I thought they should go. I strongly believe that they should have at the very least cashed out Joe Ryan whose trade value will never be higher and cashed out the expiring contract of Ryan Jeffers. I strongly believed they should have done everything possible to bring in a young SS and a Young 1B to address the huge development holes, to address the current infield depth issue, to provide competition for the entire infield, to increase your odds of someone being successful on the development front. I strongly believe that they should have flooded the 26 man with youth and let competition reveal who will help going forward and lowering the amount of holes that need to be filled the next off-season and the next off-season after that. I strongly believe that no major league team should go into any season THIS THIN in the infield!!! This infield is incredibly thin... especially in consideration of a team that is GOING FOR IT. I am all for Lewis and Lee getting opportunity. I am strongly against not having a net for them. Bets are not hedged. all eggs are in one basket. No competition for playing time. If Lewis and Lee and Keaschall for that matter fail. There is no immediate solution. There is no future solution after Culpepper. B. Ok I didn't get what I want. I'll just have to live with that because they are on the road they are on. Here is the second reason for the F grade. Resource allocation. They spent almost their entire budget on basically two DH's. If they are not trading Jeffers... and if Jeffers is going to get the lions share of time behind the plate. Caratini is the 7 million dollar part time catcher that will have to DH to get 7 million dollars worth of AB's out of him. And there stands Bell for another 7 million dollars and that's the budget. There is simply no explanation for the off-season. But... I will be watching our prized free agent being a DH who hits good FOR A CATCHER.
  8. Riverbrian
    I'll give Derek Shelton a shot. I hope he does great... but he is starting in a hole with me. During his 5 years and change with the Pirates. He lived and died with Margot type vets. This is easily confirmed by simple review of his PA leaders every year of his tenure. His offensive development track record was horrible. This is easily confirmed by the Royce Lewis sized disappointment with Oneil Cruz and the Ke'Bryan, Suwinski, Gonzales sized development issues. Was that the front office or Derek? I don't know but the Twins and Pirates have been doing the same crap. The only difference is that the Twins spent significantly more money. Until this year.
  9. Riverbrian
    I gave you a thumbs up. I think your post is fair.
  10. Riverbrian
    Contenders... Maybe they will. Maybe they won't. Contender status in July will raise attendance and revenue... How Much? Going to have kick the marketing department into high gear to get the job done because previous marketing attempts were not able to sell... Joe Ryan, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis. So here comes attempt number 158. If they have the ability to kick the marketing into high gear to sell tickets in the face of the current fan malaise and the minor Bell and Caratini additions to cure that malaise. The marketing department could probably sell the fresh new young faces. Either way it is a tough sell to the public.
  11. Riverbrian
    The Twins are not the first team to run out of money. It is sad to watch. It's like a watching someone with a pulled hamstring limping to the starters block. This team will have to commit to youth eventually. It's inevitable and the most sensible path. The delay will be costly.
  12. Riverbrian
    To get a sense of the conditions in Minnesota you have to have a sense of the conditions with the other teams. Your post provides that. I would have traded Joe Ryan for the best SS possible but as you point out... there are other options. We didn't have to go into to 2026 this weak. The infield depth on this team is worrisome. Player development on the offensive side is not comparing favorably with the player development in other organizations.
  13. Riverbrian
    I don't remember many St. Louis re-toolings. The Cardinals typically spend about 20 to 50 million more than the Twins have spent in recent years. They've done a good job developing. From Alcantara and Gallen types who are traded for Ozuna types to Nootbaars types that do a decent enough job. This year Bloom is in charge and he has reset the Cards. Nootbaar is now the 2nd highest paid player at 5.3m. The Twins did not reset. Lets see who gets there first. I'll bet on the Cards.
  14. Riverbrian
    I will be paying attention to the Cardinals. How they do in 2026 and the years to follow. It may not be this year but If I had to place a bet on who makes the playoffs first between the Cards and the Twins. I'll take the Cardinals.
  15. Riverbrian
    There is no doubt in my mind that I would have gone a different direction. Now that the direction has been laid out. Or has been laid out... so it seems. We still have off-season to go. Will it work? It's possible. The Rotation has the possibility to keep us in games where a little bit of offensive improvement will produce more wins than most of us expect. If it works? It only works for 1 year. We will still have to dig ourselves out again in 2027. It's going to be hard to make this work in 2026. Yes... the starting pitching has to do it's job and keep us in game and I do believe it's possible. In addition to that... the bullpen has to be at least average. It's possible. Let's see how they do. In addition... the offense has to be better. The offense can't afford to absorb three players getting over .387 AB's of sub-700 OPS (Lee, Lewis and France) while only producing two players with over 207 AB's with an OPS over .800 (Buxton and Keaschall). If they do have to absorb this many sub-par players... they will have to win games with their legs and we don't seem to have the legs to be that type of team. I haven't even gotten to defense that will contribute to the starting pitching keeping you in games to allow your offense to win you some games. It's a very difficult path to take... that if successful... brings a 1 year reward.
  16. Riverbrian
    If Miller was on the table and they chose Tait. They better be right about this. If Tait is everything we hope. He will work 120 games a year in 2028 at the soonest. Most likely 2029. If they have to convert him to 1B. He needs to hit like a 1B and not produce at a Caratini hits good for a catcher level. If they have to convert him to 1B... We will need another catcher. We can tack on to what we have already invested financially addressing the position. The Twins have spent 44 million to cover one spot for 5 years. On top of 44 million... we have also spent one of the top closers in baseball with multi years of control addressing the position. We spent trade value that could have acquired the 23rd ranked prospect in baseball? Choosing a potential 120 game player that is 3 years away over a potential 162 game player possibly 1 year away or maybe even this year. Choosing a player that will also most likely hit less. Choosing a player that only has lower level data compared to a player that has actual upper level data and remains higher ranked. If they chose Tait? They better be right. Development failure is costly. It cost us Aiden Miller?
  17. Riverbrian
    Of all the paths they could have taken. I think they are choosing the hardest and longest path. It is also the most expensive path. If it doesn't work... the cost isn't just not working. It will have cost us time because what needs to be done will still need to be done. It will have cost us trade return value and probably a significant trade return value because time shrinking on years of control does that sort of thing. They are attempting to spend themselves to a playoff birth while simultaneously reducing payroll. Like trying to thread a needle with an SUV. Ladies and Gentlemen... they are going for it!
  18. Riverbrian
    I'm not holding Shelton accountable. I'm going to give Shelton a fair shot just like I gave Baldelli a fair shot. I've never called for the head of Falvey, Baldelli or TC Bear. I have criticisms obviously but I've always considered them constructive. I'm just saying that the Pirates and the Twins look a lot like each other. The Twins have had more success but they spent quite a bit more. Both franchises in my opinion... need to take on a more aggressive attitude toward the development of younger players. It's quite possible that Shelton is going from a frying pan into another frying pan.
  19. Riverbrian
    The information I used was just 2024. I didn't choose that year specifically just didn't have to post 2023, 2022, 2021 or 2020. I chose 2024 off the top of my head. I have looked at every year that Shelton was with the Pirates and could have made the post longer. I don't assume that managers have carte blanche. Very few in any profession have carte blanche when they have superiors to answer to. In baseball, I assume that the front office is going to provide the direction and the manager has to work under the conditions that exist. If the front office or manager are not on the same page. The Manager has to go. So I assume based on longevity that Shelton was on the same page. Assumptions for sure because how would I, You or anyone on TD know for sure. I'm saying I don't see a lot of difference in the conditions that exist. The only difference is that the Twins spent 160 million in 2024 while the Pirates spent 122 Million. Small Payroll Team in Win Now Mode? Yeah... OK... And the Twins are not in Win Now Mode? Is that 160 Million payroll still available? How has the offensive prospect development gone for the Pirates? How has it gone for the Twins? Pitching development both teams seem to be doing decently. I don't see a lot of difference in the conditions that exist.
  20. Riverbrian
    The scary part is this. If you look at the Pirates utilization under Shelton. Just look at 2024 before you look at the other years. It looks familiar. Prospect failure and players like a 37 year old McCutchen leading the way. Tallez and Connor Joe getting playing time... both of whom can't find work today. Not to mention Grandal and Michael A. Taylor just before they fall off the cliff. Michael A got 300 AB's in 2024. OPS .543. 300 AB's.... they kept feeding him just like we kept feeding Vazquez and Margot. Falvey and Rocco may be gone but be careful what you wish for. I don't expect change. Hope to be surprised.
  21. Riverbrian
    Hate the numbers but I love the upper level velocity. If you are going to take a chance on someone. I'll take the guy with upper level velocity.
  22. Riverbrian
    Exactamundo and with your usual stellar research to back it all up! Nothing has to be permanent. You have examples of this in your post and there is more where that came from. Can you hang zeroes? How many can you hang? Put the best thirteen guys on the roster. The best 13 at getting MLB batters out.
  23. Riverbrian
    Your comments are fine. You have my respect. You have always been a solid poster whose opinions are worth listening to and I do. I don't have the inside knowledge of what transpired in 1984. I just found your comment interesting in comparison with my own subjective personal standpoint. When you say it's time to stop finger pointing at the Pohlad's. I don't necessarily disagree with your personal opinion because it comes from a different place. It was just interesting to me because after decades of never really knowing who to exactly point fingers at... I am finally ready to start pointing fingers in the direction of ownership going forward because of the recent unmistakable public actions that leaves no doubt that Tom is in complete charge. Was Falvey to blame or was Falvey just trying to execute what ownership wanted while sitting in the background. I don't know. We have office dynamics where I work that can get in the way of doing exactly what I think we should do in regards to what I'm in charge of doing. There are times where I have to just simply work under the conditions that exist with very little hope of changing the conditions. I have also worked in other office dynamics where my department was my department with little questions asked. My superiors didn't attach unnecessary filters to what I thought needed to be done. How do the Twins operate? I've never known so I haven't finger pointed. I have complained constantly on my pet concerns but I've never said Falvey, Baldelli or the Pohlad's have to go. I assume there is a budget. I don't know what that budget is but I assume there is one and I assume the Twins budget will always be well below what the Phillies, Blue Jays and Yankees are able to spend... Let Alone the Mets and the Dodgers current spending levels. The Twins can't compete in that arena... they need to compete in the arena that they can win with. The Twins need to transition quickly to what Milwaukee and Cleveland are doing and then out spend them. Instead of the Phillies arena and being considerably out spent. Prior to Tom stepping into the limelight. I've never known who to blame. Now that he's in the spotlight and is the guy left standing in what is obviously a direction disagreement... I now know. I found that interesting.
  24. Riverbrian
    I don't know who to blame. I've never known who to blame exactly so I've never asked for the blood of strangers. There is no doubt in my mind now. Tom is in charge. I've never known who is responsible. I know now. Tom has told everyone that he is in charge. For the first time in decades... I actually know where to point the finger going forward.
  25. Riverbrian
    Your timeline matches up with what I've been noticing all along. Never knew what direction the winds were blowing from but the winds were blowing with contradictory statements. I was wondering what changed when Shelton arrived saying that they were going to develop young players to Early December when he started talking about the jump from AAA to Majors being a difficult thing and announcements of keeping Ryan, Lopez and Buxton coming around that same time. Both statements might be what Shelton believes but these two statements can represent a change in direction. Yes... I would watch that documentary if it existed. Probably watch it 10 times like it's Forest Gump or something. It's why I'm tending to believe that this might be Tom Pohlad in charge and setting
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