Riverbrian

I don't know a ton about Kreidler. I can see his offensive stats. They ain't good but I'm not going to place a ton of weight in the numbers of any player that has had 211 scattered plate appearances over 4 years. His minor league numbers are OK at times but nothing that says this guy is a major league hitter. I won't damn him and I won't celebrate him. Somehow... with the offensive numbers being average in the minors and very little opportunity provided in the majors leaving pure small sample ugliness at the major league level. He has somehow kept a 40 man roster spot since he was added September 1st, 2022. If you think about all the movement that takes place on the 40 man rosters on all 30 teams during a given year. This guy has kept a 40 man spot for 3 years and 4 months now. That's fairly impressive and shows something. The Tigers have selected the contracts of players, during this time, they have protected players from the rule 5 draft during this time. They have acquired free agents, they have made trades. Through everything Kreidler survived. So... I won't damn him nor celebrate him. With that said. At the end of spring training. All teams have attempted to fill holes and most teams are trimming rosters. The waiver wire should fill up. Teams who see upgrades from the pile will pick off the best of the waived and waiver someone else to make space. The odds are that Kriedler isn't going to be the best of that group. Therefore, I believe that Kriedler will find no available 40 man space across baseball. If there is some space somewhere due to an injury or something. Is there a 4th team out there willing to give him a 40 man spot. That's why I believe Arcia will break camp. Kriedler will clear waivers and be playing multiple positions in St. Paul. I could of course be wrong.

I'm not sure that Fangraphs is correct. Perhaps not updated because they normally do a real good job with this sort of thing. I believe that 2025 was his last option year. He got a 40 man spot in September 2022 and finished out the year with Detroit. He was optioned in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

This pretty much says it all. Our Twins are going for it.

Not all developing players have to turn into Manny Machado. Some can turn out to be Jake Cronenworth and still be a win for the organization. Just not as big a win. The only reason I'm pointing what is pretty obvious. Royce Lewis. Royce is a higher level importance because most of assume... he's the one of the three that has Manny Machado potential. The problem is... his clock is running out of time. He is currently at 3.142 Service time with 3 more years in Arbitration. Only 925 Scattered career AB's because of his excessive injuries. Gunnar Henderson with Orioles is a potential future Manny Machado at a similar service time point as Lewis. Gunnar has cranked out 600 plus AB's for all three of his full years in the majors. almost had as many AB's in a single season. Gunnar has 1,883 career AB's. His best year was his 2nd full season. 37 dingers. 893 OPS over 719 AB's. His down year was last year hitting .274 with 17 Dingers for an OPS of .787 over 651 AB's. Royce... we have been teased by a .921 OPS over 217 AB's in 2023 and completely floored by a .671 OPS over 403 AB's in 2025. All of this is just to say the obvious. Getting Royce to Gunnar levels is critical and we need him to get there this year... not the next year. If he has another down season. Even if he gets there the following year. We might be able to enjoy the fruits for one season before he becomes a serious trade candidate due to what is now pending free agency. Yes we need Wallner and Lee to improve this season. They come nowhere near what we need out of Royce Lewis this season. If he has another sub .700 season it will be a crushing value loss that will also accentuate the value loss of not trading Joe Ryan for value this season.

Great Post! I don't care about the rankings. I care about the development of the players they sign. Emmanuel Rodriquez was signed at age 16 in 2019 for 2.5 million. He was ranked 8th. That's all fine and dandy... the numbers are what the numbers are. However the most important number is 16. Age 16. The CBA states that the Twins have 5 years before a 40 man decision has to be made. This makes a 40 man decision necessary at age 21 in the case of Erod. The Twins added him after the the 2023 season to protect him from the rule 5 at age 21. He has since burned two of three options at age 23. To put this in perspective. Matt Wallner, Steer, Varland and Julien were Twins draft choices in 2019. These 4 players acquired in the same year. Are currently 28, 28, 28 and 26 years old. Steer has over 3 years of service time. Wallner and Julien have over 2 years of service time. Age matters. It matters a lot. Yes it's hard to project a 16 year old but it's even harder when we need them to be 40 man roster ready at age 21. The spillage from these timelines has to be a problem for the majority of these youngsters and the clubs trying to navigate their development and at the same time a huge financial windfall for the very few Juan Soto types who reach free agency at age 26.

Nor should they. It's a three legged chair. Take away a leg... the chair falls over. If you can't compete decently with one leg (Free Agency)... you better become a two legged chair and quickly. The Twins actually have 20 homegrown players on the 40 man at the moment. Only 4 teams have more. Cleveland 25, Colorado 24, Detroit 21 and Arizona 21. I recognize this. My complaints about the one year rental may cause some to think that I don't realize this but I do realize this. The Twins have no budget space to operate decently in free agency and that money has been gone for three off-seasons now. Those 20 Home Grown Players have to be better and the current state of 1B, SS and C is unacceptable.

I agree with everything you are saying. I'm not sure where the confusion is. Minor league signings happen with all 30 teams. I understand this. It's elementary stuff. It's not a concern of mine... I don't worry about them and I don't tear them apart and it's really not my intention to tear apart this Arcia signing either. A minor league deal is typical routine course of business for all 30 teams. However... According to your earlier post and it's a post that I agreed with. You and I both suspect that he is more than a minor league signing and it's because of the current depth at the SS position. If Arcia reports to St. Paul and has to prove himself into a roster spot... well alright. Our suspicions were unwarranted and this is just a typical routine course of business minor league signing. France playing every day for a contender is a huge issue and it's because they don't have the money to compete. A team with no budget left to significantly play in free agency and a team not developing enough talent to cover for having no budget. That leaves trades to staff your roster sufficiently since two legs of the three legged chair (Draft/Develop, Free Agency and Trades are the three legs) are not getting the job done. Just like you say in your post above. Trades? Well, Joe Ryan is going nowhere because they are going for it. Now we have 3 questionable legs. Can't trade our prospects for vet talent because vet talent costs money and we are tapped out. We have 20 million... spent 7 of it on a 1B and we still haven't even looked at the bullpen. I type a lot of words on this subject so yeah... I'm tilting. But... forget all the words that I've typed. Nutshell: I'm concerned because our 1B, SS and C depth is so thin that Arcia could sign a minor league deal and end up on the opening day roster. Signing Ty France for a million dollars doesn't bug me. It's needing Ty France to play every single day that bugs me. In a nutshell... I can see they are not going to spend... if they are not going to spend. You better start making your own.

True... Castro has that versatility which opens the doors for playing time possibility everywhere and that's a huge advantage for survival. Finding gems is also hard because opportunity has to present itself and versatility simply creates more opportunity. Castro was a NRI in 2023. Kiriloff and Polanco were injured as the Twins broke camp that year and Castro got a spot that he probably wouldn't have gotten otherwise. I don't believe it was anyone's intention for Willi to get playing time with that roster spot. At least not initially. Willi had 34 AB's in April 2023 and that ranked 13th on the team for the month and Willi didn't do a lot with those 34 AB's. For comparison purposes... Jose Miranda had 104 AB's in April 2023. Nick Gordon with 53 AB's had more opportunity than Castro was provided. He didn't get a lot of opportunity that April despite Kepler, Gallo and Farmer all spending time on the IL with Polanco and Kirilloff still out. Nothing screamed eureka for that first month with Willi. It may have been the end of Willi Castro right there but those additional injuries and that flexibility kept him floating along. His playing time shifted around May 12th. His OPS had also bottomed out right around that time. At 56 AB's into his 2023 season... his OPS bottomed out at .607 on May 15th. Starting on May 16th while getting nearly everyday playing time at multiple positions. Willi over the next 50 AB's raises his OPS from .607 to .788 going 16 for 50 with 3 dingers to close out May. From that moment Willi was now somebody. He had a bad June but he's still somebody and he's allowed to continue into July which was a good month into September and that was a fantastic month. He ends up 4th on the team in AB's for the year in a year that we were playoff bound.

360 foot shots to CF typically don't end well. Those 360 foot shots pulled to dead right are hitting an old lady in the head standing in the plaza while she looks for her grandchildren. Timing is probably the primary factor in how many green balls or hits are in the raffle drum for each player. There is luck but yeah... timing is what the game of baseball is all about. Those pitchers are doing everything they can do to disrupt the hitters timing. The pitchers who are best at it get the big contracts. The hitters who keep their timing for longer periods of time and punish mistakes more often than not also get the big contracts. The manager who can time players individual timing with opportunity can squeeze out an extra win or two or ten. Timing is probably the primary explanation for most slumps or most streaks. Sequencing also matters. When are you slumping? When are you streaking? Is the manager sitting you during a streak and playing a slumping player everyday during an extended slump. If you don't start with a streak... will you get a chance to streak later and erase the slump? If you absorb a lengthy slump for a big September... What do you gain in the end? Another point on timing and sequencing. How does Detroit have a run differential of +67 while Cleveland has a run differential of -5. Yet Cleveland wins 88 and Detroit wins 87. Timing and sequencing is how. It's not just timing your swing, it's timing when you time your swing. Timing is everything but in the end those margins are still pretty damn thin. In your post that I originally responded to. Actually, the sentence I responded to, is important for everyone to think about. It may or may not be what you intended but important nonetheless. One additional hit every 12 games would have raised Julien's BA 27 points. Those small x stats suggest that those 5 hits should have been home runs. That raises his SLG almost 100 points. It raises his OBP to around .368 and now we have an .800 OPS. Did Julien spend his streak (If he had one) of good timing in AAA? He didn't start well and down he went. If Clemens doesn't get insanely hot for two three weeks. Does Julien get called up from AAA sooner? 1 Event every three games and we LOVE Julien! 1 Event every three games and we don't need Josh Bell. 1 event every three games in April alone and maybe he sees May, June, July in the majors. At 208 AB's. One 5 for 5 day could have changed the perception toward Julien. The season that he had in 2025 while burning his last option is also a function of timing. Bad timing because timing not being on his side as he runs out of options forces a hard 26 man decision the following year. Yes... you are correct. Timing is everything. Especially in consideration of the thin margins that are deciding fates.

Correct.. I am talking generally. I'm not pretending anything. There are many posts of mine where I face the stiff winds on TD many times to point out that the Twins spent quite a bit. More than I ever thought they would ever spend. A severe correction doesn't shock me... nor do I care about the money... because I understand the revenue class of teams that the Twins have always been in. I've typed that many times. I'll get on Royce, Wallner and Larnach but right now... they are just part of this developing lack of development story. You just mentioned 3 guys devoloped under our care that don't play SS or 1B. Two spots where we don't even have a Royce, Wallner or Larnach to play those positions and scrimping pennies to fill. That is what I'm generally talking about!!! I understand why they signed Bell, Arcia, Wagaman, France. All of them. The reason they need to do that is what I'm generally talking about.

They don't have a choice and that is what ultimately bugs me. They have to have people fill the open spaces and they don't. It's the single purpose of the minor leagues... to produce choices. You and I both know that they have a budget and it's pretty safe to assume that no matter what that budget is... or weather people agree with it. We can all see that they are up against that budget based on how they are operating. The same way of operating since the RSN money dried up. They don't have a choice because they haven't produced players who are cost controlled with years of service available. Players who can gain from MLB experience and can then apply what they learned to future years. A youngster who can match what Arcia produces... should be an extremely low bar and we don't have that. They have put themselves in a situation where they have to run multiple low grade options at the problem. It's never specific player related for me that bugs me. Arcia himself doesn't bug me. Sign him to a minor league deal... that's fine but we can see the door is wide open for him to break camp with the club. It's the constant year after year need for Arcia or someone like Arcia that bugs me. Who knows... Arcia might bounce back significantly and have an average season and help us win a few games along the way. It doesn't matter because whatever he does. He will be here for one year and we are looking again. They had the opportunity to fix these rather larege development holes via trade this off-season. They passed on that opportunity. They are going for it. We will see how this (I believe it's a) mistake plays out down the road but I believe they have set the franchise back a year or two or three in order to go for it and they think Bell and Arcia is going for it. If Joe Ryan gets hurt this year and the Twins don't make the playoffs. The not trading Joe Ryan mistake will be enormous. I'm going to watch the rest of the off-season and see the finished product. They won't be looking for a 1B or SS. Check those boxes. It's been all quiet on the bullpen front. Let's see what they do. What OF will they move? At least one trade is coming.

Yep... the same guy. We were thin at the position going into the off-season. The addition of Arcia doesn't make it thick. This would have been the perfect off-season to acquire a MLB ready prospect who can play the SS position. But... they are going for it.

Players being signed to minor league contracts simply don't matter to me. All teams sign players to minor league contracts. What matters to me is the current depth of the SS and 1B position that puts these depth signings on the fringes of 26 man necessity. Arcia signed a minor league deal because nobody would offer him a 40 man roster spot. Nobody else will give Fitzgerald or Kreidler a 40 man spot. That's our current depth. 2026 is most likely going to hinge on Brooks Lee and I'm ok with Brooks Lee. I'm not going to bet against him but I'd rather place multiple bets. The ownership group and front office had a conversation and decided to go for it in 2026 and without enough money to PROPERLY fill these huge development holes at SS, 1B and C. Only SS has as anyone sniffing MLB ready (Culpepper) and he hasn't seen AAA yet. We will need Culpepper to come out of the box strong in St. Paul because we are a Brooks Lee injury away from Arcia playing every day.

Unfortunately. This sentence and it's implications will be lost by most. The margins are tiny on a per PA basis and it takes a lot of time or PA's to accumulate actual differences or separation and players will get torn apart over that separation on this website. One more hit every 12 games produces separation or closes separation. .315 was the 2025 MLB average OBP. Put in a 100 balls in the drum. Paint 31.5 of them Green... go ahead and round up to 32 green balls. Reach in and hope you grab a green one. The top hitters... the elite players at making less outs. They get 38 green balls. The really bad ones... get 27 Green balls. Now take all 3 drums and start drawing. Draw 100 balls out of each. Does anyone think it's impossible to draw more green balls out of the 27 green ball drum than the 32 green ball drum over 100 draws? How many draws do you need before replication occurs? The margins between good and bad are thin. These are the margins that determine playing time or no playing time. These are the margins that create a short side platoon.

The Twins are so thin at 1B that picking up Wagaman makes sense but... the question is... what really happens next. We can't assume health for anyone coming out of spring training... but what happens next if all the 1B options are healthy coming out of spring training. Possibility #1 - Josh Bell is our DH. Clemens (or Julien) platoon with Wagaman. Consequences of this alignment. The Twins will have one 26 man spot for either Clemens of Julien and neither of them have options. One of them was probably destined for this fate once Josh Bell was signed so the Wagaman signing doesn't change that pending decision.... Fitzgerald took care of that. Julien could be a trade consideration for a team like Colorado. However, this would put 2 1B's and another who will play 1B on the roster eating up a lot of space. I assume the Twins will break camp with Arcia or Kriedler. This leave space for 4 OF's on the roster and there are already 6 under immediate consideration with 4 other's knocking on the door (Roden, Erod, GG and Jenkins). This will force a trade of an OF. I assume with Bell handling DH... it would mean Larnach the most obvious candidate to be moved for a bullpen piece. They haven't really addressed the bullpen in free agency yet so I assume that a bullpen acquisition via trade is bound to happen. Possibility #2 - If everyone is healthy. Wagaman simply starts in AAA as depth. Needed depth. The Twins will still have to choose between Clemens and Julien for a multiple position role. Bell is our 1B and Larnach is our DH. Possibility #3 - The what happens next question will be solved via an injury removing the decision. I'll go with #3

Maybe not 100 percent but yeah... I'll bet that Arcia is on the 26 man roster day one. If he's healthy of course. If everybody on the infield stays healthy. It's probably a 75% chance he makes the roster anyway. If there is an injury anywhere on the infield. He's 100% on the roster. It's Arcia or Fitzgerald or Kriedler. Fitzgerald will go unclaimed at the price of free and he was the choice to give up a 40 man spots to make room for Wagaman. Or Kriedler who would also go unclaimed if DFA'd. I highly doubt the front office is going to go with Culpepper out of camp.

Are you sure? Are you saying those clubs never employed 1st or 2nd year Arb players?

In comparison with their peers (Typical spending range). They were money aggressive for the first 5 or 6 years from Cron and Schoop to Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez. They hit a financial wall in 2023 and they became not aggressive going on 3 years straight now. No deals at the deadline in back to back years of contention (2023 and 2024). They have become financially passive on a grand scale and I've always assumed that is because the money is no longer there. There just seems to be no adaptation to the funds not being there as we go on year 3 as you mentioned. I don't expect them to ever spend enough money to make it work with money being the thing that plugs the holes left by the lack of development. Once you reach the point that you have to sign Ty France for everyday playing time at a million for financial reasons.... It's over at that point... you are out of cash and you need to change course. That's out of Money with a payroll in the 150 range. That range is now 50 to 60 less and you still need a Ty France. They must adapt to succeeding with multiple pre-arb players like Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to do and you have to commit to multiple pre-arb players in order to do that and this would be the perfect time to start. Develop or Die and the development track record has been unable to develop a hitter that can survive the jump from AAA to the Majors. Shelton can say it's a hard jump to make... I believe that it is but Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to navigate this hard jump multiple times and stay competitive. Hard Yes... Impossible? No it's not impossible as evidenced by Cleveland and Milwaukee.

It certainly wasn't a rebuild. It may not be a retooling either. It just might be business as usual. In regards to the bullpen... I agree with everything you say. I'm half not worried about pen and half worried about it. My not worried half comes from many years of looking at the bullpens of every team. Successful bullpens contain pitchers that most haven't heard of. Closers are created by giving someone the closer role. My worried half comes from the size of the job to be done, It might be without precedent. I don't recall any bullpen this blown up.

Just think about this for a second. The rebuild of this roster began on July 30 2025 and it ended on July 31 2025. My wife can't even drive to Ashley and buy a chair for the living room in one day.

I totally understand. You are absolutely correct. The CBA clearly shows the roster limitations that all teams must adhere to and those limitations force teams to make decisions on who gets 40 man spots and 26 man spots. Every player has a ticking clock attached to them and points of time where hard decisions must be made on them because of these roster limitations. I believe the players that they must decide between... the differences are razor thin. They are looking at a big pile of players in the middle with different strengths in weaknesses to choose from. There is simply no way for clubs to avoid spillage because development isn't linear. It's why I have been repeating over and over again for years. Every 26 man roster spot is gold and shouldn't be wasted. If the front office wants to screw around, waste roster spots on specialists, short side platoons, pinch runners, defensive specialists or PEOPLE THEY WON'T PLAY period. They will compromise discovery, they will compromise development and leave them no choice but to be searching for one year filler year after year after year. Compromising discovery. It's important because they don't know which players rise out of that big pile of players in the middle. If they knew... Ronny Henriquez and Brent Rooker would still be in Minnesota. They don't know and therefore... I seriously doubt if any of the posters on Twinsdaily know what GG, Rosario or Fedko can become. The future of these players are TBD... unless the Twins have already pre-determined their fates. It's the one sure thing. If the Twins don't believe in a player... they can guarantee their fates by not calling them up or not playing them when they do get a call up.

The front office doesn't know either. The future for all players is TBD, Coaches get paid to do something and I've always assumed they are paid to improve players. So as long as players can get better this means that stats are the past not the future. If players CAN'T get better. Just fire the coaches, analysts, all support staff because they are not necessary. We can just look at the numbers of a 22 year old in Wichita and stamp no chance on their forehead. I'm not a fan of pre-determination.

It's a question of better players. Different answers to how.

With your knowledge in these matters. I like knowing that you are having the same recurring thoughts.

I was sad when they traded Arraez because at the time of the trade. He was the one guy... and I mean the one guy in the lineup that I felt could get a hit at any time. I'm fine with the trade now. Pablo Lopez has turned into a plus addition at based on his numbers downticking... I'd say that they cashed in Arraez at the optimum time. When watching him play... It was hitting that I enjoyed. It was hitting that made him special. That aside. In regards to the question. Why isn't he scoring runs? No idea other than he's not an aggressive base runner. He's not the guy to grab that extra base and he certainly isn't going to knock himself home. That can explain some of it but not enough of it. His runs scored... as with nearly everyone but perhaps more so with Arraez is going to depend on the players behind him. You'd figure just getting on base would take care of it naturally. His best OBP year was his first year in Miami. Solar and De La Cruz were just not what other teams have on their rosters. The 2nd best OBP was his last year with Minnesota. I wasn't crazy about that 2022 Twins lineup that year either. So perhaps... it's sequencing. He just happened to have his best OBP years when the teams he played for were not very good and now that he's playing for a team like the Padres... His OBP has gone down.