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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez
Riverbrian replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'd shift you to 1B and let your left handed bat produce that career .842 OPS. I wouldn't worry at all about how many lefties are teammates of yours and I wouldn't worry about your .722 OPS against lefties either. I am awfully concerned about your age though. -
Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez
Riverbrian replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Oops... I used AB's for that portion. Good Denzel Clarke type catch on your part. -
Why the Twins Didn't Sign Luis Arraez
Riverbrian replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
To be clear... I don't think the Twins should go after Arraez either. Just want to post some numbers for consideration. 6,059 Plate Appearances for the Twins in 2025. 3,919 of those PA's were against Right Handed Pitching. 72% 1,697 of those PA were against Left Handed Pitching. 28% In 2025 The Twins as a team produced: .706 OPS vs Left Handers (Ranked 14th in MLB) .708 OPS vs Right Handers (Ranked 22nd in MLB) If you are looking at the splits, the rankings, the percentages. Isn't the hitting against right handers the bigger problem? How much of your limited resources do you commit to the 28% problem? What will that commitment leave for the 72% problem? -
MLB.com: Twins/Joe Ryan Going to Arbitration Hearing
Riverbrian replied to East Coast Twin's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Your last paragraph has my attention. -
I can't dispute anything you are saying. You don't see a lot of movement when it comes to the top rated prospects. The big boys are the teams most willing to part with prospects. They typical don't jump off the cliff with young players because they fill roster spots with Joe Ryan's via trade. Even those teams will hang on to Roman Anthony with both hands. I'll just say... Joe Ryan's trade value is pretty high right now and I don't think it will get higher. If Joe has the chance to get a player with talent beyond the #4 ranked prospect in a system. I'd do it. I think it's quite possible that desperation will over take discipline at some point. Once Framber and Ranger have signed. Once Peralta has been traded and the decent options have found new homes. Teams who still need starters will be a little more agreeable.
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Agreed. At some point... you do lose hope that the mechanics can be maintained to repeat that stroke. They've been getting quality coaching for a long time and pitching like bowling like golf is a matter of mechanics and the consistency of it. If they haven't figured it out by the time they hit free agency,,, it's fair to wonder if they ever will. In the end... I just remain hopeful that the big arm guy can repeat that stroke eventually. It's harder to teach a guy to throw 100.
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Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Myself... I'm trying to keep my head away from the work stoppage speculation. There is going to be a lot of words typed on the subject until the two parties sit down and try to work things out. Both sides will play the PR posturing game with us and we are always willing participants in this game. I have to believe that a stoppage is real bad news for both parties and I have to hope that they can figure things out with both parties understanding the damage done. Now... if there is a stoppage. If the owners need to get the players union to agree to the things being talked about. My guess... is that the service time would continue to accrue during the stoppage. The owners probably don't get the changes they want and a service time pause. Got to give to get. If baseball is down for a full year. Good Gravy. The damage to the sport would take multiple years to recover from. -
Come opening day. No matter what the Twins do this off-season. I will be optimistic because you never know what happens in the game of baseball. I get that I have a certain amount of pessimism watching the off-season as it progresses but I'll be ready to give them a chance on opening day. Now... One place where I do have some optimism in regards to the Twins is the young starters. From a stuff standpoint. Matthews looks great on the mound. He's got stuff and I'm excited to see him get better and I think he will get better if he stays healthy. I really like what I see with Abel and Festa from a stuff standpoint. If they can stay healthy... I think they can become productive major league pitchers. I've always like Bradley. Even when his numbers were down in Tampa... he had stuff that I could see paying off. SWR has produced decent numbers. His stuff doesn't excite me but... my excitement doesn't matter if the numbers are decent. Matthews is the guy I rank #1 if I had to bet on a top ranked pitcher developing out of the 5 guys I just listed and I would place a bet on all 5.
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Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
In other words. Another example of the Twins burning tomorrow for today. -
Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Sure... but... if that's the goal. It's probably a mistake if they don't get the marketing team cranked up to get people singing songs about the product. You and I and quite a few of us TD participants are uber fans. We make up a low percentage of the people who actually know who Jenkins or Culpepper are. The attendance needle starts moving when they start winning and marketing simultaneously. -
It's a 26 man roster. No leaders out of the other 25? In order to lead you need followers... Are the other 25 capable of following. They will talk to who they talk to. They will believe what they want to believe just like Tom Petty says on the album Damn the Torpedoes. 26 players and each one with a different personality. Not to mention a team full of coaches, analysts and scouts that players should be listening to along with the simple motivation of keeping a job in the profession. A leader without followers is just a guy taking a walk. I'm sorry... I'm not much for the intangible conversation. The Pirates were 19-41 in 2020. Would they have been 10-50 without his leadership that impressed Shelton? Bell has played on some bad teams... So where did he lead these bad teams to?
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Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
I hope your prediction is true because if it was my decision. I'd be flooding the roster with youth just to let the success/failure ratio fill some holes so there are less holes the following off-season. I would have rather they traded Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers for a young MLB ready SS but... Well... the Twins ain't gonna do that. With the direction they are going... I just don't see that happening. If Culpepper is legit. He needs time to make a loud statement in St. Paul and a month isn't enough time to make that statement. A statement loud enough that says it's OK to start his clock early... The Twins would also need to not look like a complete mess in April. Same thing goes for Walker Jenkins who we all assume is legit. There are future consequence for starting clocks early when they don't have to be rostered until Dec 2027. The consequences are that they reach free agency quicker. Starting the clock early on players who have a legit chance of being special... and doing so in a season that they are not playing for anything... is just another huge development mistake. Another example of the Twins burning development just to get through a season. And if the season doesn't mean anything... we will end up paying that bill in 2031 when Jenkins is a year from free agency at age 27 and the pundits are predicating it will take 12 years and 50 million AAV to sign with the Mets. So I see the main conditions for a Culpepper or Jenkins call up. 1. Jaw dropping success at AAA 2. A team winning enough games that they need them to compete. In the meantime. The Twins need to focus on the Pre-Arb players who are on the 40 man. Find out if they have anything to help us moving forward. Those players may not be Jenkins type talent but maybe they have enough talent that we don't have to sign anymore Josh Bell type players. -
Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
That's the thing that drives me crazy. In consideration of the 1B depth... Wagaman is almost necessary. Of course... as things stand today. If nobody else is brought in. Wagaman has options and can be placed in St. Paul for insurance... However... if he makes the 26 man roster and that can't be discounted. He will probably platoon with Clemens (Or Julien). This puts Bell at DH. If Bell is the DH. Larnach or Wallner will need to be traded because the DH spot is spoken for. When you consider that Bell and Larnach are almost the same statistically. We don't gain anything other than what we pick up in a trade... which is something I guess. We will have also used up 3 limited roster spots for 1B capable players... plus whatever sub-par SS that needs to be on the roster because you have to have a player who can play some decent SS because Brooks Lee is the only current Twin capable of playing SS. That adds up to 5 roster spots to handle DH, 1B and SS (Bell, (Clemens or Julien). Wagaman, Lee and Sub Par SS guy. Throw in two Catchers for 7 roster spots, Lewis and Keaschall to round out the IF and you are at 9. That leaves 4 spots for OF and 6 legitimate considerations for those 4 spots forcing the trade of Larnach or Wallner. -
Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Yeah I get that. Wagaman is here now. Someone had to go. The SS depth just pisses me off to the point that I'm "Slightly Bugged" that we just gave up a 12 on a scale of 1 to 100 and are now left with a 9. We got to at least land a 16 before the off-season is done because the Twins are going for it. I won't know who it will be but I will make this prediction right now. Whoever it is. If whoever it is stays healthy... they will get at least 100 AB's this year because others won't stay healthy. -
Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Like I said in my post. I also don't expect Fitz to remain on the 40 man with the Dodgers. It's not a big loss it's like choosing between Kevin Hart and Danny DeVito to get something down off the top shelf. The Dodgers just happened to have 40 man space at the moment and they claimed him and they may keep him when he goes unclaimed when they have to send him through waivers. All teams have roster space limitations that they must contend with. There is still off-season to go... there will be some other SS candidates who will become available when the 26 and 40 man rosters have to be finalized coming out of camp. And... The Twins could still shock us all with a trade of some sort to address the position better. For the moment though... On January 12th 2026. It just bugged me a little because I would have chosen Fitzgerald over Arcia... Over Kreidler as well. Right now... I can't discount the possibility that Arcia or Kreidler take a 26 man spot out of spring training. It's January 13th now. SS depth is a sore spot with me. All I can do is wait for news as it trickles in and see what the final product is and then how it performs. -
I've always assumed that they would have to spend some money on a free agent or two to build the bullpen back up. I also assumed that they wouldn't have much to spend on positions players because they would have to allocate limited dollars to the pen. I've been disappointed as I've watched talent come off the board. With that said. I like bullpen guys who can at least touch 100 mph. Sir Anthony is one of the bullpen guys that I had circled because he averages around 98 and throws the occasional triple digits. I also like bullpen guys that average over a K per inning because they got to dig out of jams from time to time. 79 K's in 62.2 innings last year qualifies for me. Go get him because there are not many of these big arm guys left and the Twins are going for it. Gonna need some big arms guys.
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In my opinion... This is the year to trade Joe Ryan. If there ever was a year... this is the year. Thinking they can contend this year... they better be right because there are real consequences to being wrong beyond losing baseball games in 2026. Delaying the trade decision until the deadline to see where the teams stands is incredibly risky. If he gets hurt or struggles. His current trade value craters. If he ends up needing TJ or something severe. His trade value go from huge to nil. We could get a Walker Jenkins type talent for Joe right now. We won't be able to get that kind of player if he gets hurt or struggles. He would have to maintain his health and performance just to come close to the same value that he has right now because value goes down when the clock ticks down. Only the scarcity of selling teams can restore the value lost... providing he stays healthy and similarly productive. I think we can mark this moment in time and easily determine during the course of 2026 if we wasted Joe Ryan's trade value for a shot at glory. We better have the glory because it's a lot to waste.
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Dodgers Claim Ryan Fitzgerald Off Waivers From Twins
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
This one bugs me a little. Just a little so I'm not even sure it's a bug. Why? Like I said... it's bugs me a little and only a little... However... If I had to choose between Fitzgerald and Arcia... I probably would have chosen Fitzgerald. I understand that it's like choosing Kevin Hart over Danny DeVito for which actor I prefer to get something down from the top shelf. Fitzgerald claimed by the Dodgers suggests that he might be a little taller than Arcia. It's probably a long shot that Fitzgerald stays on the Dodgers 40 man roster but also a possibility that he clears waivers when he is sent through to make room for someone else. I honestly wasn't expecting a waiver claim this go round. I understand that nobody really cares about either of the choices and won't lose a minute of sleep over either of them. However... unless the Twins have another trick up their sleeve. Somebody is getting a 26 man spot coming out of spring training between Kreidler and Arcia. -
Eric Wagaman Might Be the Next Kyle Garlick
Riverbrian replied to Cody Schoenmann's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
In 2019 Chris Taylor was the primary short side dance partner for Joc Pederson in LF. The problem with Chris Taylor serving that specific role is that he couldn't serve a specific role. His ability to play every position requires him to play every position. He can't just hang around in left field waiting for Madison Bumgarner. On top of that the Dodgers in 2019 were left handed hitting heavy. 4 of their 5 top hitters were left handed. The entire starting OF was left handed. Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger with OPS of .876, .817 and 1.035 respectively. Enter 27 year old Kyle Garlick who produced a 1,011 OPS against RHP over 262 plate appearances in Oklahoma City. When is he going to play on that team... with that outfield? The answer is against left handed pitching for Joc Pederson and a disposable short side platoon was born weather he deserves it or not. If Wagaman is taking this type of role. He no longer matters. There is no OPS large enough exclusively against lefties that will provide him a career of reasonable length.- 48 replies
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Wagaman BTW. 514 PA's last year with the Marlins. 330 of them against RHP. 64% of his plate appearances against Right Handers. You may be right... the Twins might try to short side him. Just like they tried to short side Margot in 2024. 343 PA's in 2024. 172 against RHP... 171 against LHP. Injuries are not going to allow a team to keep it platoon clean but lets give him a roster spot. Whose roster spot will Wagaman take? Someone needs a roster spot to backup SS. Are we going down to 4 OF's just so Wagaman can take a roster spot to short side platoon? I like Wagaman but to short side him... whose 26 man spot does he take in order to face only 25% of the pitching? Wagamen, Bell, Clemens, Julien are all candidates for 1B. One of them will for sure be off the 26 man unless Clemens or Julien can play SS in a pinch. Of that group... Only Wagaman can be sent to the minors without waivers being involved. Can Wagaman shield all those left handers by himself. Julien. Clemens, Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman Erod, and Jenkins all need that shelter from the nasty left handers? Do you turn Martin into a short side platoon at this stage of his career to create a 2nd platoon? Do you start trading or cutting left handed hitters because there isn't enough right handed cover and we have too many left handers to face the 75% of pitching? Wagaman... who I like BTW. 514 PA's - .674 OPS Ty France 490 PA's - .681 OPS I'm sincerely glad we picked him up. Some of us are not hating... some of us are just concerned with the infield depth overall, the budget to address it, the injuries that will occur and a front office declaring that they simultaneously going for it. Wagaman ranked 35th in OPS for rookies in 2025 (100 AB qualifier). Wagaman at least as options. So no complaints on Wagaman we need the depth at the position. Just questions on how this is supposed to work if most of these guys are not going to play much at all as you say.
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I don't have an issue with any of these signings. I actually like the Wagaman signing. He at least has options. However... Cris? If things go well? When have things gone well? By well... how many Royce Lewis PA's would that be? Go back and review. Take note of how many players got at least 100 AB's in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021. If that isn't enough. Keep going until you notice the consistency. Who will be the 17 players required to get through 2026? Who will be the 17 who play in at least 30 games? Hopefully that recurring back issue that Brooks Lee deals with has been completely cured? I'm not sure the Twins are going to rip the redshirt off of Culpepper when Lewis is grabbing his hamstring on opening day? I guess it's possible they start the Culpepper clock in April when Keaschall takes a fastball off the forearm? I'd still say unlikely but certainly possible because they selected the contract of Keashall on April 17 last year. One day after they traded for Jonah Bride on April 16th and 9 days before they traded for Clemens out of necessity. Now Jonah wasn't 1 of the 17 that I counted to get through the 2025 season because he was 20 PA's short of 100. But it's worth pointing out that it was April 16th and the Twins are already fishing outside the organization for new starters. With Miranda gone as it turns out forever, Lewis still not available and Keashall about to break his forearm on April 25. 33 Games - 17 Starts for Bride while Clemens made 93 starts. Just didn't see that coming in the off-season prior to 2025.
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- eric wagaman
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These signings don't mean a thing unless... Unless or until they become the best or only option and there is a high probability that they easily become the best or only option. They can sign all the Arcia's they want to minor league contracts for all that I care. When Arcia is leading the team in AB's in the month of May. I'll care and it isn't hard to see a scenario where that is the case. It's not the individual players that I object to... it's the need for these players that is the source of my strong objections. Injuries occur... they occur a lot. When they occur and they will. We can all take note of the number of AB's they get. If they perform in those AB's... we can all pat the front office on the back, say way to go and marvel at their craftiness. Your article is spot on and it gets to the heart of the problem. Taking your thought one step further. The 4 players you list in your article. They are probably it for the off-season. So... As we stand today. Joe Ryan is not being traded in order to compete in 2026. Arcia, Wagaman, Kreidler and Jackson are the acquired support brought in to support not trading Joe Ryan so they can compete in 2026. We need Joe Ryan to compete and we offer Arcia, Wagaman, Kriedler and Jackson to augment/justify that need for Joe Ryan in order to compete. Impossible path to navigate forward with Joe Ryan pulling them toward victory while Arcia, Wagaman, Kriedler and Jackson are pulling that Ryan momentum backwards. Who exactly is the architect of this half measure off-season plan? Falvey? Zoll? Pohlad? All 3?
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Hats off to you Matthew. I'm always appreciative of attempts like these and therefore appreciative of the work you put into it. You admit it isn't fool proof but it's a good start to a story that should be told. My recommendation would be to include more than the top and bottom guy from each game. That'll require a formula but this would be information that I would be interested in reading. Clemens won baseball games for us last year. HIs overall numbers, his streakiness, his career are all stumbling blocks to Kody getting credit for those wins but... for those of us who watched the games... We saw it... Kody Clemens won baseball games for us and some cases... almost by himself. What did you have for Ryan Fitzgerald? He came big in a few of the few games that he played. Just curious.
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- luke keaschall
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