Riverbrian

You are a great poster on TD. I love reading your stuff. In my opinion. McMahon and Lewis had similar numbers last year. That's really the only comparison. I guess the other comparison is a cautionary tale. They both hit the major leagues around age 23. McMahon played in Colorado therefore despite 6 years in a row (not counting 2020) of 20 plus home runs.... OPS+ has never been kind to McMahon. He's been pretty consistent average to below average and as pointed out he makes a lot of money due to Colorado giving him a 6 year deal with two years and 32 million left on the deal. I believe that Royce has the talent to be special but if I'm the GM of another team. I'm not giving up anything special for him. Not until he shows he can bust out of this thing. Therefore his value is with the Twins. His value needs to be repaired and the Twins are all in on him. He will be given the playing time and nobody will be allowed to take his job no matter how he performs. We will live and die with Royce Lewis.

We have to start producing actual major league talent before any of this applies to anything. As long as we are bringing in Kyle Farmer types on one year deals. We are paper thin in regards to the infield.

Range Ratings are like Plastic. They are in everything. I'd really like to dispose of it but it's just piling up everywhere. The majority of plays are routine and this is causes a overweighting of small sample volatility. It causes the year to year swings that you perfectly illustrate for all to see... yet unquestioned by so many. This plastic is in WAR. To quote Radiohead. It wears me out... it wears me out.

Here's the deal. Whoever the Twins bring up to Minnesota. Kreidler, Fitzgerald or IKF. One thing is for sure. The club is betting everything on Brooks Lee.

If you are going to accumulate talent. You need flexibility. If you don't have flexibility... talent accumulation can't happen. If you can't accumulate talent... you will live and die by the health and performance of a thin layer.

The front office said they were looking for a power bat. We can debate weather Josh Bell has a power bat or not. Josh Bell isn't a true power bat in comparison to actual power bats but compared to Arraez from a power perspective... Josh Bell is King Kong. It doesn't matter if any of us think Josh Bell is a power bat. They said they wanted a power bat and Josh Bell is the guy they chose to fulfill that want. Now they can move on to finding the infielder they said they were looking for.

As it stands right now. Yep... He might be on the roster to handle emergency SS and CF duties. If the club goes with Fitzgerald instead or calls up Culpepper or acquires another SS capable player. Kreidler's 26 man spot would most likely be gone and then it's a matter of stashing him... keeping him after he takes a trip through the waiver process and goes unclaimed. If no other moves are made. I'd place my bet on Kriedler breaking camp and heading north because Fitzgerald can be stashed in AAA and Culpepper doesn't have to be added to the 40 man roster yet. I just think a SS capable addition is coming via trade or free agency.

He wasn't really OK 5 years ago based on his numbers in 2020. But, I'd be surprised if they didn't ask his thoughts since they worked directly with each other. Personality... Club House Presence. Was he fighting through an injury that year. Hey Derek... This is Derek. We are looking at Josh Bell. What do you think? How was your experience with him? Like I said... I wonder about Shelton's advocacy.

I understand that Lewis and Lee are our two obvious candidates for SS/3B and I understand that is why they are going to keep getting chances... I wasn't suggesting that they don't get those chances. I am pro-development. They need to develop. And I feel the same about young left handed hitters against left handed pitching. They need to develop as well. The point I'm making in a nutshell. Giving Lewis and Lee chances to work through it is actually more damaging due to 100% utilization but that is OK. And I'm Ok with it. The other is not OK according to the club... it is stopped from the very beginning. It only plays a role in 25% utilization and it requires a 2nd player to execute. That's why I put the comparison point up there. There are 13 roster spots. 4 platoon combinations are the most that you can have. The Twins have maxed out on those 4 platoon combinations. In order to set up 4 platoon combinations... you need right handed hitting cover. Adding more right handed cover in order to protect the left hander vs left hander is committing 4 players to 25% of pitching or limiting the amount of left handed hitters to to play the 75% of pitching. Injuries are just going to screw it up anyway and now you have your short side right handed hitter facing the right handed pitching more often than they face left handed hitting... the reason they were rostered in the first place. Just develop hitters... Period. Don't worry about the platoon split. Side with the left handed hitter over the right handed hitter in the case of tiebreakers. Pitchers are not treated this way. They have to develop against both hands. They have the same platoon splits to contend with but they can't be sheltered so they get to work on facing both sides of the plate. Hitters...They get strip mined for parts. I am not worried in the slightest about how many left handed hitters we have. Put more on the roster... Play the 75% not the 25%. I get what they are trying to do. They are trying to win baseball games by marginal degrees instead of developing talent that will blow past those margins regardless of what batters box they stand in. I get what they are trying to do... I disagree with what they are trying to do.

I do wonder about Shelton's advocacy in this deal. Josh Bell played for Derek in Pittsburg his first year as Manager. The Covid Year. It was perhaps Josh's worst year in the majors but Shelton gave him 223 AB's to produce a .669 OPS in 2020. Only Adam Frazier had more AB's that year for Pittsburgh. Side Note: Frazier produced a .661 OPS that year. That's what Shelton was running out there trying to compete. Let the Vets kill us was what Shelton was doing in 2020 with Adam Frazier and Josh Bell leading the way. It would be pretty crazy if the Twins signed Josh Bell without asking Shelton what he thought about Josh since they worked together many years ago. So... I assume that Shelton gave a thumbs up.

I agree with most everything you are saying. Maybe not the overall point or spirit of your post but it's accurate. Larnach's drop in his OPS was absolutely influenced by the increase against left handed pitching in 2025 and I appreciate you pointing that out. I have frequently and loudly campaigned against the Twins platoon system in regards to development. While campaigning against the Twins extreme platoon utilization. I have said multiple times that the overall OPS of our young left handed hitters will probably tumble if they allow our young left handed hitters to develop against left handed pitching and I believe that is 100% OK to let them tumble a bit. Larnach's .608 OPS against lefties last year isn't that impressive but the increased activity against them produced a higher OPS than any of his previous small sample sizes in the two years prior. Which was .579, .412. The Twins can focus on that .608 or they can focus on the .760 against right handers. I say don't worry about the 25%... Worry about the 75%. With more exposure... maybe that .608 increases to .650. Still not amazing but now he's in the ball park of what Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee produced playing every single day last year and that's OK with the Twins because Lewis and Lee are going to get the opportunity to work through it for a pay day down the road. No such pay day for left handed prospects against left handed pitching though. They just completely shut it down for two solid years. The Twins want to screw around playing marginal splits to slightly increase their chances in single AB situations but yet willing to completely erase any of these marginal gains with the constant of utilization of players who are producing those same numbers against both hands. Last year... Larnach reached base 29.7% of the time against left handed pitching. Lewis reached base 28.3% of the time against everyone. Lewis reached base 29.4% of the time against left handers. Brooks Lee reached base 28.5% of the time and 29.6% of the time against left handers. What exactly are we gaining on a per AB basis if the Twins are willing to just absorb what Lewis and Lee were doing overall. Lewis and Lee doing it is OK... part of the process but letting a left handed hitter face a left handed pitcher is not OK. I've passionately posted multiple times that the Twins just stop with the extreme platoon utilization that was screwing up the development of EVERY SINGLE LEFT HANDED HITTING PROSPECT knowing that it will cause a drop in overall numbers if they stopped doing it. You need your left handed hitters to develop fully just like they allowed their right handed hitters to develop fully. You have starved them for 2 years. Nobody should expect immediate results upon the lift of that ban. It's OK... if there is a platoon split difference. The important point is that 75% of pitching is right handed. If the Twins want to play the platoon split correctly. Go get hitters who can hit that 75% instead of chasing down hitters who can hit the 25% of pitching and wasting roster spots on them. If the Twins go back to adding short side specialists in order to waste roster spots chasing the 25%. You have to limit the number of left handed hitters in order to do that. Larnach, Wallner, Julien have already been compromised in the early stages of their career. Clemens, Outman, Roden, Erod and Jenkins will also need handcuffs to avoid that 25% problem and there are not enough 26 man slots to provide enough short side extra handcuff slots. The only way you can avoid this 25% problem is to limit the number of left handed bats and by limiting the number of left handed bats... you have lost focus on the 75% problem. If they spend 7 million on a short side specialist... which Bell doesn't appear to be based on his own splits... the front office will need to be replaced. If they try to make Martin a short side/pinch running specialist... Just throw Martin away right now. He will stop mattering to our future the very second they make that decision. Developing players need to develop 100%. By letting them do that... they increase their value to the team and they increase their value to other teams that would like to acquire them. The strip mining of our young prospects for the past few years is a big reason why our development of young hitting prospects has sucked. It's not the THEE reason but... it's a reason.

I used 2025 stats only... the paragraph above starts with that disclaimer. A homer every 21 AB's to every 29 AB's a .417 SL to .404 in 2025. That's the basis of my saying "more". without clarification of "Little" or "Lot" more. I'm willing to retract has more power if I can keep the main point. Based on 2025 stats. We've added another Larnach type. It certainly doesn't imply that 2026 will just be a reproduction of those 2025 numbers. Someone or both may go up... Someone or both may go down.

OK... How do I feel? I expected it. I can't even get pissed like I want to be. I am taking Falvey, Zoll and Shelton at their words lately. They have been telling us and I believe them. They think this team can compete and they are going for it. This signing removes any doubts of this off-season's intention. We are not trading our trade chips. The rebuild is going to start at this specific point. The selling of the bullpen and the cashing out the Correa contract was the start and finish of the beginning of this re-whatever it is It just isn't the direction I would have gone... I'm disappointed to see more of the same. However... I've had time to prepare for it...at least two years of preparation... nothing snuck upon on me. So... getting past that. In the context of what the Twins are going to try and do. If you just consider last year's stats. We have basically added another Larnach to the lineup. I meant that comparison as complimentary but it's another Larnach sized production addition based on last year's numbers. Bell has more power but the overall production is about a Trevor Larnach contribution. I know some will take this as opportunity to say something about Larnach. Larnach isn't the point. I think that Larnach can hit so if that is what Bell brings... OK... it is what it is. If this is what they are going to try and do... it makes sense. It's the What they are going to try and do part that doesn't make sense but it's what they've consistently done. I fear it will lengthen the process of whatever process this is but they are going for it. Like digging a 5 foot hole with your toenails... they are going for it. SS will probably be addressed with IKF or Arcia. There will be bullpen pieces making one to two million each and that'll be your 20 million spent. There is no reason to make a 26 man decision now between the optionless Clemens or Julien. Someone could get hurt between now and the end of spring training. It's just not what I wanted them to do. They're going for it.

I'd love to see it but... I just doubt it would ever happen because there is really no financial benefit to relegate Boston College so James Madison can take their place. I just love the execution of relegation in the English Football System. It's actually beautiful. The worst teams have to fight like hell to stay up and it creates drama on both sides of the standings. If an FCS school like any of the Dakota or Montana schools wants to become bigger and play with the big boys some day. Relegation allows them to rise up the levels by simply winning and earning the advancement, They would get promoted without conference Presidents or conference committees standing in front of the door holding them back while they look at program infrastructure, the money coming in from donors, television market size and the number of seats in the stadium. If Montana works themselves up to the top level. It'll be up to them to stay up. In the case of Michigan getting relegated due to a suspension or a really shocking bad season. It would be a nightmare because that's a lot of money that will be playing Miami (Ohio) instead of Miami (Fla). However... if they are truly Michigan. It would most likely be a one year thing because they will get themselves right back and if they can't... they are just not Michigan and deserve to be where they are. It would be fun... It just won't happen.

Who knows. The slump was lengthy enough to make his incredible start the distant past. We will find out who he is because the Twins are going to give him every day playing time. My guess is that it's not an either or so all of that middle is the most likely future landing spot. There is a ton of real estate in between his incredible start and his lengthy slump. He could land anywhere in the middle. He may not be as good as he was He may not be as bad as he was.

Royce Lewis performing at the levels that everyone expected him to perform at is about as important as it gets. Royce is critical to the future of this team. Royce Lewis should be a superstar on a team that needs superstars. How big was his incredibly lengthy slump? Just imagine trading a player with a .850 or .900 OPS and replacing him a .671 OPS. Same every day playing time but you have a .671 OPS standing where a .900 OPS should or could be. It's like trading Jose Ramirez for Ryan McMahon... that's how big this is. That's how damaging Royce Lewis was all by himself.

Last off-season... we were just a Ty France move away. This off-season... after earning pick #3 in the upcoming draft because they were not just a Ty France type move away. The Twins are going to approach it as if they are just a Ty France type move away. Because it worked real well last off-season and we are in better shape this off-seasokn without Correa and an entire bullpen.

It's probably tough for Stearns to part with his prospects. He's not that far removed and probably still has Milwaukee juice on him. Prospects were his lifeblood and now he has to think about them differently.

The White Sox... just plain shouldn't... not at this moment. Unless the Phillies and Mets get excited or panicked at the same time and drive the price up themselves. They often say players get a little more focused in a contract year. This is essentially a contract year. It's an important year for him. If he gets himself focused. The White Sox can trade him at the deadline to any team that is in contention looking for an upgrade. With a return to form from Robert and just a few teams actually selling with more teams buying. His value could explode upward because he's demonstrating the star value that his skills promised. The acquiring team will pick up that club option. The White Sox could be happy with the return. If Robert has another bad year... it just doesn't matter. A team might trade for him and they may pay the 8 million rental cost but the team that acquires him won't be picking up the option. He's a struggling two month rental Hail Mary that gets nothing back in a trade. As for Buxton. I don't know... maybe they are? Buxton is a little more complicated with the no-trade clause and maybe the Twins are telling them that he isn't available.

I just counted 68 P4 and 68 G5 with Notre Dame in the P4 and Connecticut in the G5. The numbers add up. I'll take your idea and I'll add a relegation system. The bottom team from each division goes down to G5. The winner of each division goes up. (Pause)(Crickets) Yeah I know. I've over complicated something that was probably fraught with resistance in the first place. The NCAA doesn't appear to be strong enough to make suggestions like this and the conferences are fighting each other for real estate. But... Yeah I agree. They should level this thing off. They won't... but they should. I'd suggest groups of 64 so we can send 4 teams down right away. Syracuse, Oklahoma State, Purdue and Arkansas start in the G5! Send the official letters of relegation out right away.

Phillies and the Dodgers should probably pick up the phone and kick tires. Maybe even the Yankees. The Mets really really have to address CF. I like him on the Phillies as the best fit if they are trying to rebuild their OF and it seems they are. Dodgers... Can absorb his not rebounding. The Yankees have OF depth and can absorb his not rebounding.

Dear Carson, Go get some playing time. Hit a bunch of homers. Have fun Sincerely Riverbrian

Probably not. The speed power combo would be a dream acquisition... the unrealized potential would be a 20 million dollar nightmare. It would be a 20 million dollar bet that he can actually display that speed power combo enough to tempt you to pick up the 20 million club option after the season... which leads to another 20 million dollar bet. The guy just hasn't delivered on the hefty expectations placed on him for two seasons straight now. I wonder what Chicago can get for him. All that talent... somebody probably feels like they can get him back to good. Maybe that pending free agency bounce that some display. His performance was so bad that his price tag has cratered. Probably won't take a ton of trade capital so this one is all about the money. The money takes the me out... The Twins don't have the money available to swing and miss. MLB Trade Rumors had 3 teams as in on him. The Pirates are reportedly trying to find free agents who will take their money in an attempt to support their pitching. They may not find a significant free agent willing to live and eat in Pittsburgh. Trading for Robert might be an option for them at a very low price but what an incredible risk. The Pirates have never been flush with cash and they can't afford to miss when they finally say they are. I'd be shocked to see them take on Robert and add a Eugenio Suarez. How many big bats will the Pirates add. The Padres... who knows but my guess is that they would want Chicago to take on some of their hefty contracts. I really don't believe the Padres are working with money to spend. I believe they have to move some money just to spend some money. The Mets... Now that's a team that probably needs to test these waters. They can drop 20 million without much thought, they need a CF and it won't kill them if Robert makes it three straight bad years.

It will be up to Erod to keep it.

What I would do is quite simple. I would trade Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers. Ryan has the value to acquire a Jenkins type prospect and that should not be wasted. Jeffers is also necessary to cash in because he will probably be the top free agent catcher next year. I want a young 1B and a young SS and bullpen additions. I spent 18 million out of the reported 20 million. I spent it on two bullpen arms. Best of what's left. Pete Fairbanks and Seranthony Dominguez were both signed two year contracts at 10M per and 9M per respectively. For the Trades... I used BBTV as the guide. I know some don't like BBTV but it's the only guide I have. I hope to achieve some realism but there is no way of knowing if you achieved. I made 3 trades. One huge and straight forward. The other complicated but also huge... even bigger . The other trade is getting a young 100 mph arm for the bullpen. Trade 1: Joe Ryan to the Giants for Bryce Eldridge. There is our first baseman for the next 6 years. Jenkins range rated talent. Joe Ryan goes home and the Giants would be a team that could really use someone like Joe Ryan. Trade 2: Trevor Larnach and Eduourd Julien to the Padres for reliever Bradgely Rodriquez. The Padres are trying to cut payroll and they have a lot of holes to fill and they are cutting payroll. The Padres need to be creative. It will be interesting to see what Preller actually does. Trevor would be a good fit for the Padres as is. Julien could be of value to Padres. They are rumored to be shopping Cronenworth. Trade 3: This one is for fun. I blew it up big just to have some fun with it. Three team trade between the Twins, Red Sox and D-Backs. In order to move Jeffers for a SS. The market for Jeffers is hard to figure everyone can use him but most have primary's so I just looked at teams rumored to be talking with Realmuto. The Phillies and Red Sox seem to be it. The Rangers just signed Danny Jansen. So Jeffers to the Red Sox and the SS close to price for Jeffers would be Jordan Lawler. Plus Speed and a little pop. Solid AAA numbers... Rough MLB Start. He will do... so the D-backs are in the deal. The Red Sox were rumored to be talking to the D-backs for Katel Marte so let's make that happen. The Red Sox are rumored to be shopping Duran. I included Bailey Ober and Alan Roden and here is what everyone gets. The numbers are close enough to a match on BBTV. So... I'm happy to report that all 3 teams agreed to the deal. Red Sox: Marte, Jeffers and SP Mitch Bratt D-Backs: Duran, Ober, Cases and Roden. Twins: Lawler and Payton Tolle I'm keeping Buxton and Lopez to lead this new squad forward. Lawler, Lewis, Keaschall and Lee will cover 2B, 3B and SS and all 4 will compete for playing time. With the trades of Larnach and Roden. Erod comes out of camp with a MLB job. Outman is on the roster because I'm willing to give him two months to show that he can play. GG or Jenkins will replace him if he doesn't. He gets until June. Catcher position is punted. They will bat 9. It's OK. Just catch and call a good game. We will build the other position spots first. Starting pitching is young but so are the position players. Let's see what they can do. I'll start with Lopez, Bradley, Zebby, SWR and Tolle. We have Abel and Festa are a phone call away. Swap Abel and Tolle is you want... Either way it is fine. The Bullpen... I spent some money and I apologize for that. I grabbed the two best available arms and gave them two year contracts. Welcome to Minnesota Pete Fairbanks and Seranthony. Bradgely Rodriquez acquired. Prielipp into the pen. Raya are doing pen work in AAA waiting for a call up. C: Alex Jackson ($1.8M) 1B: Bryce Eldridge ($0.8M) 2B: Luke Keaschall ($0.80M) 3B: Royce Lewis ($3.00M) SS: Jordan Lawlar ($0.80M) LF: Austin Martin ($0.80M) CF: Byron Buxton ($15.00M) RF: Emmanuel Rodriguez ($0.80M) DH: Matt Wallner ($0.80M) 4th OF: James Outman ($0.80M) Utility: Brooks Lee ($0.80M) Utility: Kody Clemens ($0.80M) Backup C: Jhonna Pereda ($0.80M) POS: Carlos Correa Dead Money ($10.00M) SP1: Pablo Lopez ($21.75M) SP2: Taj Bradley ($0.80M) SP3: Zebby Matthews ($0.80M) SP4: Simeon Woods Richardson ($0.80M) SP5: Payton Tolle ($0.80M) RP: Pete Fairbanks ($10.00M) RP: Seranthony Dominquez ($9.00M) RP: Cole Sands ($1.30M) RP: Justin Topa ($2.00M) RP: Kody Funderburk ($0.80M) RP: Connor Prielipp ($0.80M) RP: Eric Orze ($0.80M) RP: Bradgely Rodriquez ($0.80M) POS: Add Dead Money Here ($0.00M) Payroll is 19.77% under budget