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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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Finding Defenders who can hit and Hitters who can defend is a tough thing to accomplish. Very few players have no warts and if they have no warts... They will be very expensive. Roster your best players and put them in positions that make the most sense in consideration of the context of your roster. I'll remind everyone that we had a 101 wins in 2019 with Jorge Polanco as our everyday SS and Sano at 3B. Mitch Garver at Catcher and Luis Arraez playing multiple positions.
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Ryan, Lopez and Ober are all free agents after next season. And we need to throw in Kremer. If my math is right... That's a large percentage of the starting rotation gone after 2027. The Twins front office could view these 4 pitchers as a final year of competitive window. They will then attempt to build around it. However... it's all about money people. That's 54 million on 4 pitchers. These 4 pitchers as a final year of competitive window. It's a solid rotation. However... Every one of these 4 pitchers will cost at least 10 million dollars and in the case of Lopez 21 million. It'll be around 54 million invested in 4 rotations spots. So... if the Twins are going to build around them. Where is the money going to come from to support this competitive rotation? The folks who want to offer Jeffers a QO are going to be disappointed when that 23 million takes payroll up to 132 million just to staff 12 of 26 roster spots. You will need to spend money to support that rotation and you won't have it. Jeffers is gone and we have recieved nothing. Ryan, Lopez and Ober will be gone and we will have received nothing for them. So... The Twins could trade Ryan this off-season in an attempt to mitigate... soften the massive rotation departure the following year. However... this is where I will be blunt. Ryan has nowhere near the trade value that he had last off-season. It's largely gone. We can still get a nice young player for him. But... not the really really really nice young player. To be blunt... his trade value will now bring back a player that we will strip mine for parts. So... take that value and reinvest in pitching. Young pitcher in return if you trade him. This rebuild could have started last off-season. It can still start this off-season with a series of trades. Or the rebuild will be shoved down their throats the off-season after that.
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Royce Lewis Day-to-Day With Shoulder Injury
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Oh Yeah... Our Catcher playing 1B. An option as well. -
Royce Lewis Day-to-Day With Shoulder Injury
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
Because of roster construction. If Lewis can't go. Either: Bell will have to play 1B during the games he can't. or Clemens will have to slide to 1B leaving 2B to filled by Kriedler or the return of Keaschall to the IF. or We give Ross some looks that will require someone departing the 26 man roster and whatever he does over those games will be ignored over the off-season anyway. -
I was sleeping in med school so I'm not qualified to diagnose his health issue or issues. The answer to the question posed is... a firm no. If an injury compromises his ability to field the baseball. It will probably compromise his ability to hit the baseball. If he has a particular ailment where his hitting is not compromised but his defense is. Well, yeah then of course and only for the length of time that the injury persists. Any attempt to mitigate future injuries through lighter utilization is simply compromising your baseball team to accommodate. If an injury occurs that is compromising his ability to play the game of baseball... he should go on the IL and heal. In the meantime... the Twins organization should staff it's 26 man roster like there is a possibility that Byron will get hurt. In addition... they should staff it's 26 man roster like there is a possibility that any player on the 26 man roster could get hurt.
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Be still my heart. It's nice to hear this expressed because I often feel alone. Even if its only with a tacit white flag qualifier. I'll take it. We called up Gonzalez over Rodriquez and everyone needs to pragmatically think about this. We called up Ggon over Erod. Our organization purposely called up a LESSER player because of HANDEDNESS. We chose the LESSER player on purpose. We are so unescapably tied to the concept that we purposely choose LESSER players to feed it... instead of breaking the chains of it and simply choosing BETTER players instead. When an organization purposely staffs LESSER players they are fundamentally broken because BETTER should be the selection criteria. We called up a LESSER player to join the other purposely staffed LESSER players. Jackson, Caratini, Kreidler So we could lock into a 9 player lineup that would then proceed to slowly and consistently fade out of contention. We locked in and we lessened the talent behind it which led to no escape route. Fate was in the hands of 9. BTW... The inevitable call up of Gonzalez over Rodriquez was set in motion years ago when the organization decided to take EVERY left handed hitting prospect and PURPOSELY make them dependent upon a lesser player. They will need to choose lesser players over better players 5 years from now because the calling up of a lesser players TODAY shows no inclination to create players who will break the dependance TOMORROW. How does this pertain to the trolling topic of this thread. We locked into 9 players and COLLECTIVELY they led us out of contention. The players who actually played are the ones. All 9 of them.
- 37 replies
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- trevor larnach
- royce lewis
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(and 2 more)
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These discussions... I don't know why I'm here. It's like putting your tongue on a canker sore. I don't know why I do that either. I'm not going to judge Derek Shelton. I have no idea how they are internally structured and I won't make assumptions. My judgements would be based on his doing what I think he should do and that's just plain unfair.
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September 11 - Left Handed Starter - Parker Messick - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 5 RH 2 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 20-25 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.39 --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- The September 12 game is difficult to determine if this game goes into the RH or LH Starter column. It was a bullpen game with RH Daniel Espino starting the game lasting two innings and LH Joey Cantillo the bulk pitcher throwing 4 innings. My decision is to place this game in the LH column and my reasoning is based on the lineup. IE... No Larnach in the lineup. Trevor Larnach has been consistently absent from the lineup when the lineup is set for left hander. The absence of Larnach an the bulk LH means LH Starter column means LH Starter Column September 12 - Left Handed Bulk pitcher Joey Cantillo - Won - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 3 Switch 2 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 21-25 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.38 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Last Game - Right Handed Starter September 13 - Tanner Bibee - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup composition: 4 RH 1 Switch 4 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 50-54 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.67
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45 Home Runs in 901 plate appearances is nothing to sneeze at. .755 OPS over 901 PA's is nothing to sneeze. Multiple positions DECENTLY is nothing to sneeze at. There are way too many people sneezing on this website. Until this organization can locate 13 better players. I sincerely don't understand why some cling to every negative they can find.
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I don't know who is following the daily grind of this page but for anyone that is. On July 28th... the Twins were 41-34 against Right Handed Starters with an 4.93 Runs Scored vs RH Starters The Twins have gone 9-19 against RH Starters since while the Runs scored vs RH Starters has plummeted down to 4.70. Our success with Right Handed Bats vs Right Handed Pitchers was keeping us alive. That particular combination of support is no longer supportive.
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Last Game Right Handed Starter September 9 - Keider Montero - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 50-53 Season Average Runs Scored: 4.70 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs LH Starters: 19-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.44
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The Twins Are Giving Their All, But It's Not Enough
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm hesitant to be that predictive. Twins RISP batting average was .280 and ranked #1 from opening day to July 31. Since August 1. RISP batting average is .240 and ranked 21st. Yes we have a significant drop in our success with runners in scoring position among other things. Meanwhile... the Tampa Rays have avoided this sort of RISP shenanigans. The Rays are ranked #1 in RISP batting average since August 1 with a .308 batting average. The Rays were #2 to the Twins #1 with a .278 up to July 31. The Twins have had 336 PA's with RISP since August 1. 69 Hits. 108 Runs. 34 games. The Rays have had 302 PA's with RISP since August 1. 93 Hits. 129 Runs. 34 games. Individually is a little more sample size challenged. Of those 69 hits since August 1 with runners in scoring position. 59 of them came from 6 players. Royce Lewis has had the most RISP opportunity since August 1 with 42 PA"s. He's done alright with 12 Hits for a .324 Average. Ryan Jeffers is 2nd with 38 and he's hit the RISP tank with a .190 BA and 6 hits. Kody Clemens has been the best RISP performer since August 1. He has a .429 batting average with Runners in scoring position only 28 opportunities. He also leads in RBI's since August. Kody Clemens had a .259 RISP BA prior to August 1. Ryan Jeffers had a .370 prior to August 1 and Royce Lewis was a .188 prior to August 1. These are all reversals or regression either positive or negative. Surprisingly. Lewis was not our worst RISP performer up to July 31. Byron Buxton was our worst RISP performer with a .171. Well... the worst if you toss out Wallner and Outman. I remain hesitant to predict. Especially when you have each individual player all riding what look like individual roller coasters to me. To me... the Twins needed a strong stretch run and they did not deliver. This has occurred while Shelton has basically locked in his starting lineup. Collectively the offense took a significant small sample size step down with the 9 player stability. -
Last Game Right Handed Starter September 8 - Drew Anderson - Won - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 2 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 50-52 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.73 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs LH Starters: 19-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.44
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I don't know what we would have gotten for Jeffers in the off-season. It's easy for me to say that I would have traded him in the off-season to get value back. So easy to say... that I will say it again. We should have. I don't know what we would have gotten in a trade. I do know that value is gone and I'm pretty certain that a 23 Million QO for a catcher is unprecedented and I do know that 30 million invested in the catching position would be a disproportionate budget allocation for what has historically been a low level budget.
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The Twins Are Giving Their All, But It's Not Enough
Riverbrian replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Regression is a roller coaster. But Yeah... we seem to be in the midst of a market correction. The lineup is locked in. We've chosen 9 and Shelton is rolling with those 9. Since August 13 (The Return of Buxton to Iowa). The lineup has been pretty locked in. Buxton replaced by Jenkins has been the only change. Since August 24... Jeffers has been in the lineup 12 out of 13 times. Shelton is going with his horses and has locked in for the stretch drive. Caratini has joined Jackson, Kreidler, Gonzales and now Ross as permanent residents on the bench. The locked in lineup failed. Regression to the mean? Quite Possibly or just a bad dip. The numbers they relied upon have gone topsy turvy for a bit. Against Right Handed Pitching our Right handed hitting lineup was carrying the club. That went away. We have been locked in and we have gone 5 wins 12 losses against right handed starters since Field of Dreams. We had a couple of monster games scoring 11 and 15 runs in back to back contests against the Tigers during that 5-12 stretch. Take those two games out and the team has averaged 3.4 Runs per game against Right Handed pitching during a 3-12 stretch. We locked in to a static lineup and the run scoring dried up in a small sample during a time when small sample stretches are critical. Our performance against right handed starters was paying the bills. The bank account seems to be a little drained at the moment. -
September 6 - Bullpen Game - Loss - 1 Run Scored (Recorded as a RH Starter) Lineup Composition: 4 RH 2 Switch 3 LH (Standard Lineup against Right Handed Starters) Season Record vs RH Starters: 49-51 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.75 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- September 7 - Troy Melton - Loss - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 2 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 49-52 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.74 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs LH Starters: 19-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.44
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Last Game Left Handed Starter: September 5 - Anthony Kay - Won - 6 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 2 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 19-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.44 ----------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Record vs RH Starters: 49-50 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.79
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Last Game Right Handed Starter September 4 - Erick Fedde - Loss - 1 Run Scored Lineup Composition: 4 RH 2 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 49-50 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.79 ------------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Record vs LH Starters: 18-24 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.40
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I get all that. My sentence wasn't an opportunity statement or complaint toward the mistreatment of Fedko. Although I fully admit that that bone does exist in my body. This was a statement toward what I believe... and I may be wrong... yet I do believe... the decision on who to call up was limited to those who stand on a certain side of the plate.
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Rules state that injured players can't be placed on standard outright waivers. The Twins needing a 40 man spot for Ben Ross could only release Fedko to create the opening needed for Ross. If he was healthy... He could have gone through the normal waiver process and return to the Twins if he went unclaimed. Fedko with Minnesota. He will just go down as another momentary contract selection that was made based on the batters box that he stands in.
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First round pick of the Mets in the 2020 draft. Drafted 19th overall out of High School. That was the year that Austin Martin was picked 5th overall by the Blue Jays. It was the year that Torkelson and Kjerstad were can't miss superstars coming out of college. He was ranked the 5th ranked prospect in the Mets system according to mlb.com when they traded him to the Cubs at the 2021 Deadline. He had 32 AB's total when he went down with a season ending injury at Port St. Lucie. While injured and out for the year he was traded to the Cubs for Javier Baez and Trevor Williams. The Mets didn't know what they had in PCA. Jed Hoyer has stated that the Cubs wanted pitching prospect Matt Allen in return. The Mets refused Matt Allen but was OK including the real young Pete Crow Armstrong. PCA was steadily advanced up the system. He would accumulate a total of 1120 minor league plate appearances. His OPS over those 1120 PA's ended up at .883 which is impressive for a player his age but not overly impressive. Only 275 PA's out of the 1120 PA's total came at the AAA level (.820 OPS). For comparison sake. Emmanuel Rodriquez in the Twins system has accumulated 1511 minor league PA's (432 at AAA) and has produced a minor league overall OPS of .920. (.899 at AAA). These are numbers to chew on. There is perspective in comparison. I'm not saying Erod will become PCA. That would be ridiculous to even imply. But then again... with opportunity... who knows. I am saying that teams don't always know what they have. And in case anybody wants to send birthday cards. PCA was born March 25th, 2002 and Erod was born February 28th, 2003. PCA is 11 months his elder.
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It's a poor choice if you miss the point. Agreed. All teams go through down stretches. Yes... The Dodgers haven't had as many of those things.
- 164 replies
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- derek shelton
- jeremy zoll
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