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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    We are all going to feel real silly when Tristan Gray hits the game winning three run homer with two outs in the ninth in game 7 of the World Series knocking in Caratini and Bell. With Joe Ryan giving up 2 runs over 8 innings and Justin Topa shutting the door with the 3 K's in the ninth to close it up as the Pirates fans go home stunned. Shelton gets the last laugh.
  2. Riverbrian
    Agreed on all. However... We still have training camp yet to be identified injuries that will influence the need of a Julien for example. I assume that... If everyone is healthy... a decision will need to be made between Clemens and Julien. I just don't assume that everyone will be healthy come opening day. That should keep Julien, Outman and Jackson out of the immediate mix.
  3. Riverbrian
    Interestingly... He was a member of the 40 man folks in Boston so he comes to Minnesota requiring a 40 man spot or a trip through the waiver wire. The Red Sox were at 41... this brings them to 40. The Twins were at 41... this brings them to 42. So... if my math is correct. Two players will have to be moved off the 40 man. Just my opinion but I'd guess that Gray, Brujan and Kriedler are the top considerations to be designated for assignment. Jackson could also be a consideration with the addition of Caratini. 42 on the 40 man could also be a strong indication of a trade in the very very very near future. However... if the team is trying to set up for a run at the AL Central title in 2026. Any legitimate trade value that we send elsewhere would probably bring back a major league ready talent that also requires a 40 man spot. The off-season churns along.
  4. Riverbrian
    2022-2023 seemed to be quick developing market if I recall correctly. I also think it's possible that the 2023 outlier earliness was due to an aggressive approach to Carlos Correa. I think it's possible that Correa was a singular target that off season. I think it's possible that we would have never signed Gallo and Vazquez if Carlos Correa would have just signed with the Twins without the Giants/Mets head fake. I believe Correa signing with the Giants caused the quick pivot to Gallo/Vazquez.
  5. Riverbrian
    I feel the same. However... somebody need to come up with better names for those seasons.
  6. Riverbrian
    Are you still writing 2025 on your checks?
  7. Riverbrian
    Quality over Quantity is an interesting debate... I certainly don't have the answer to it. I'd guess it's a combination. With the assumption that 16 year olds are indeed hard to project... it would certainly require a lot of research to stand on firmer ground on the quality/quantity thing. However... I suspect that we are asking the wrong question or looking in the wrong place. Signing the young IFA is simply entry into a system. I suspect that the system is what needs to be discussed and analyzed because age 16 to 22 has to be critical development years. Some organizations seem to produce more IFA fruit. Some produce less. Why is that? It's quite possible that the answer lies in the development system. Not the entry point as a hard to project 16 year old?
  8. Riverbrian
    Complete the painting. You can't understand a Salvador Dali painting after a few strokes. If you have a lobster in your right hand and a telephone in your left hand. It won't make sense until you put them together.
  9. Riverbrian
    Especially since we spent 7 million on Bell.
  10. Riverbrian
    Due to catchers needing to working with pitchers... study film, call pitches, frame and all that stuff. I can certainly justify the need to consider the defensive side of the equation. However... With Jackson included the price tag is now 15 million for the position. We are currently $100 million in payroll commitments. So if my math is correct 15% of payroll committed to the position at this point. Only 3 teams are paying more at the moment and all 3 teams are paying more to one player making more. Dodgers - Will Smith will make 16M Atlanta - Sean Murphy will make 15M Phillies - JT Realmuto will make 15M It should be pointed out that these teams have estimated payroll of 429, 263 and 281 million dollars. All of the 29 other teams have someone queued up at the position who make the minimum. I'm sure Caratini will be just fine in comparison with his catching peers. I don't have a problem with him personally. The allocation is a problem... the development is a problem. 14 million out of 20 million spent is a problem. Jeffers will have to be traded or this is ridiculous.
  11. Riverbrian
    Many of you were asking for a catcher? Many of you were willing to commit limited resources to acquire that catcher. Congrats to those who wanted this hole addressed. I mean that sincerely. There is no snark intended. However... I can't join you in that celebration. The allocation of limited resources weighs heavy on my mind. About a month ago. December 10 to be exact. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins had about 20 million to spend. It doesn't mean that the "league source" he mentioned is/was accurate. If the "league source" was close. We have spent 14 of that 20. Josh Bell produced a .741 OPS over 533 PA's at age 32 in 2025. That is valued at 7m for 1 year. Victor Caratini produced a .728 ZOPS over 344 PA's at age 31. That is valued at 7m for two years. Catchers play less, produce less and are consistent over pays. This is how we spend limited resources. We have segued from Vazquez at 10m for 3 years to Caratini at 7 million for 2 years. Thats progress but the budget remains limiting. Ryan Jeffers will probably be the top free agent catcher next year and we have spent 44 million addressing the 2nd catcher position over a span of 5 years. Trading Jeffers and Larnach can create 11 million in payroll space to add to the 6 remaining. However they are running out of options to spend that 17 million on. They could spend that 17 million on a trade upgrade. That will cost prospects most likely.
  12. Riverbrian
    This is exactly how I feel. They have reset the salary level but not the expectation apparently and I'm not sure that is going to work. The cost of this venture... is the future. This team has been cashing in on their future for too long now and keeping Joe Ryan is just another version of this paying today with the future. If it works... I'll tip my cap. If it doesn't I'll point to this off-season as a wasted pivot point. A pivot point that will have to happen at some point. The bill will come due. It's actually already due. Come trade deadline. You are a buyer or you are a seller. Anything else is standing still. After two years of standing still in buy position. We had our first year of selling in 2025. The most likely outcome of 2026. Year two of selling. As you point out... Joe Ryan will be less valuable. Ryan Jeffers will be less valuable with two months to go. We will be shopping for Josh Bells replacement with another limited budget because the budget won't increase until they start getting somewhere and trading at the deadline is not getting somewhere. It sure seems like 2026 would be the perfect year but flood the team with youth to get them further along the road for 2027 but that is not what they are doing apparently. Stepping back financially, stepping back in the bullpen, filling holes with waiver claims but not dialing down expectation nor making a full commitment to getting back as quickly as possible is one of the oddest plans I could imagine. Apparently I don't have to imagine it. It's going to happen right in front of us all.
  13. Riverbrian
    I realize that every list has to include Killebrew and Tony O. However... I'm going to take them off my personal list because I was pretty young and don't have direct memories of them. DH - Morneau C - Mauer 1B - Hrbek 2B - Carew 3B - Gaetti SS - Smalley LF - Buxton CF - Puckett RF - Hunter Utility - I feel like Cuddyer belongs somewhere
  14. Riverbrian
    When I was in my early 20's many moons ago. I had no money. I was starting a career. Employed full time in my chosen profession making entry level. I couldn't afford a decent apartment on my own so I took on a roommate to split rent. It worked out great for awhile. I won't say I was comfortable... it was check to check but I knew I had the money for rent and food and other stuff. Then my roommate lost his job and everything changed. Now I have the entire rent to pay and my room mate is eating my food because I'm a nice guy, the roommate was a friend and I couldn't bring myself to throw him out into the snow. I clearly remember going to the supermarket... full time employed... loading up on Ramen Noodles and deciding if I could afford shampoo. I remember my room mate coming home with a 5 pound block of cheese that he picked up at a food bank or something. He put that thing in the fridge and it was the only thing in the fridge... there it was,,, stamped U.S. department of agriculture... I swallowed pride along with that horrible tasting cheese. Why did I tell this story. The Twins ran out of money. I've been there... I recognize the behavior.
  15. Riverbrian
    Your spell check auto-fill thing changed Brujan to Brutal.
  16. Riverbrian
    Nothing to worry about. He will be moved off the 40 man roster after we sign Kyle Tucker this week. Due to his service time. He will have the option of refusing assignment. That would be risky for him because I believe he gives up guaranteed money on a split contract. I believe that's around $500,000 while he toils in St. Paul.
  17. Riverbrian
    I'm careful handling that stuff. I'm waiting for aWAR, cWAR. dWAR and eWAR to eliminate those bothersome gaps.
  18. Riverbrian
    I'd shift you to 1B and let your left handed bat produce that career .842 OPS. I wouldn't worry at all about how many lefties are teammates of yours and I wouldn't worry about your .722 OPS against lefties either. I am awfully concerned about your age though.
  19. Riverbrian
    Oops... I used AB's for that portion. Good Denzel Clarke type catch on your part.
  20. Riverbrian
    My response was probably a reaction to the title of the article. Specifically the use of the word "Catalyst". I wasn't implying that he can't lead. It's my little personal war against this type of justification for the lower dollar one year vet.
  21. Riverbrian
    To be clear... I don't think the Twins should go after Arraez either. Just want to post some numbers for consideration. 6,059 Plate Appearances for the Twins in 2025. 3,919 of those PA's were against Right Handed Pitching. 72% 1,697 of those PA were against Left Handed Pitching. 28% In 2025 The Twins as a team produced: .706 OPS vs Left Handers (Ranked 14th in MLB) .708 OPS vs Right Handers (Ranked 22nd in MLB) If you are looking at the splits, the rankings, the percentages. Isn't the hitting against right handers the bigger problem? How much of your limited resources do you commit to the 28% problem? What will that commitment leave for the 72% problem?
  22. Riverbrian
    The tortoise motivating the hare,
  23. Riverbrian
    Your last paragraph has my attention.
  24. Riverbrian
    I can't dispute anything you are saying. You don't see a lot of movement when it comes to the top rated prospects. The big boys are the teams most willing to part with prospects. They typical don't jump off the cliff with young players because they fill roster spots with Joe Ryan's via trade. Even those teams will hang on to Roman Anthony with both hands. I'll just say... Joe Ryan's trade value is pretty high right now and I don't think it will get higher. If Joe has the chance to get a player with talent beyond the #4 ranked prospect in a system. I'd do it. I think it's quite possible that desperation will over take discipline at some point. Once Framber and Ranger have signed. Once Peralta has been traded and the decent options have found new homes. Teams who still need starters will be a little more agreeable.
  25. Riverbrian
    Agreed. At some point... you do lose hope that the mechanics can be maintained to repeat that stroke. They've been getting quality coaching for a long time and pitching like bowling like golf is a matter of mechanics and the consistency of it. If they haven't figured it out by the time they hit free agency,,, it's fair to wonder if they ever will. In the end... I just remain hopeful that the big arm guy can repeat that stroke eventually. It's harder to teach a guy to throw 100.
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