Riverbrian

360 foot shots to CF typically don't end well. Those 360 foot shots pulled to dead right are hitting an old lady in the head standing in the plaza while she looks for her grandchildren. Timing is probably the primary factor in how many green balls or hits are in the raffle drum for each player. There is luck but yeah... timing is what the game of baseball is all about. Those pitchers are doing everything they can do to disrupt the hitters timing. The pitchers who are best at it get the big contracts. The hitters who keep their timing for longer periods of time and punish mistakes more often than not also get the big contracts. The manager who can time players individual timing with opportunity can squeeze out an extra win or two or ten. Timing is probably the primary explanation for most slumps or most streaks. Sequencing also matters. When are you slumping? When are you streaking? Is the manager sitting you during a streak and playing a slumping player everyday during an extended slump. If you don't start with a streak... will you get a chance to streak later and erase the slump? If you absorb a lengthy slump for a big September... What do you gain in the end? Another point on timing and sequencing. How does Detroit have a run differential of +67 while Cleveland has a run differential of -5. Yet Cleveland wins 88 and Detroit wins 87. Timing and sequencing is how. It's not just timing your swing, it's timing when you time your swing. Timing is everything but in the end those margins are still pretty damn thin. In your post that I originally responded to. Actually, the sentence I responded to, is important for everyone to think about. It may or may not be what you intended but important nonetheless. One additional hit every 12 games would have raised Julien's BA 27 points. Those small x stats suggest that those 5 hits should have been home runs. That raises his SLG almost 100 points. It raises his OBP to around .368 and now we have an .800 OPS. Did Julien spend his streak (If he had one) of good timing in AAA? He didn't start well and down he went. If Clemens doesn't get insanely hot for two three weeks. Does Julien get called up from AAA sooner? 1 Event every three games and we LOVE Julien! 1 Event every three games and we don't need Josh Bell. 1 event every three games in April alone and maybe he sees May, June, July in the majors. At 208 AB's. One 5 for 5 day could have changed the perception toward Julien. The season that he had in 2025 while burning his last option is also a function of timing. Bad timing because timing not being on his side as he runs out of options forces a hard 26 man decision the following year. Yes... you are correct. Timing is everything. Especially in consideration of the thin margins that are deciding fates.

Correct.. I am talking generally. I'm not pretending anything. There are many posts of mine where I face the stiff winds on TD many times to point out that the Twins spent quite a bit. More than I ever thought they would ever spend. A severe correction doesn't shock me... nor do I care about the money... because I understand the revenue class of teams that the Twins have always been in. I've typed that many times. I'll get on Royce, Wallner and Larnach but right now... they are just part of this developing lack of development story. You just mentioned 3 guys devoloped under our care that don't play SS or 1B. Two spots where we don't even have a Royce, Wallner or Larnach to play those positions and scrimping pennies to fill. That is what I'm generally talking about!!! I understand why they signed Bell, Arcia, Wagaman, France. All of them. The reason they need to do that is what I'm generally talking about.

They don't have a choice and that is what ultimately bugs me. They have to have people fill the open spaces and they don't. It's the single purpose of the minor leagues... to produce choices. You and I both know that they have a budget and it's pretty safe to assume that no matter what that budget is... or weather people agree with it. We can all see that they are up against that budget based on how they are operating. The same way of operating since the RSN money dried up. They don't have a choice because they haven't produced players who are cost controlled with years of service available. Players who can gain from MLB experience and can then apply what they learned to future years. A youngster who can match what Arcia produces... should be an extremely low bar and we don't have that. They have put themselves in a situation where they have to run multiple low grade options at the problem. It's never specific player related for me that bugs me. Arcia himself doesn't bug me. Sign him to a minor league deal... that's fine but we can see the door is wide open for him to break camp with the club. It's the constant year after year need for Arcia or someone like Arcia that bugs me. Who knows... Arcia might bounce back significantly and have an average season and help us win a few games along the way. It doesn't matter because whatever he does. He will be here for one year and we are looking again. They had the opportunity to fix these rather larege development holes via trade this off-season. They passed on that opportunity. They are going for it. We will see how this (I believe it's a) mistake plays out down the road but I believe they have set the franchise back a year or two or three in order to go for it and they think Bell and Arcia is going for it. If Joe Ryan gets hurt this year and the Twins don't make the playoffs. The not trading Joe Ryan mistake will be enormous. I'm going to watch the rest of the off-season and see the finished product. They won't be looking for a 1B or SS. Check those boxes. It's been all quiet on the bullpen front. Let's see what they do. What OF will they move? At least one trade is coming.

Yep... the same guy. We were thin at the position going into the off-season. The addition of Arcia doesn't make it thick. This would have been the perfect off-season to acquire a MLB ready prospect who can play the SS position. But... they are going for it.

Players being signed to minor league contracts simply don't matter to me. All teams sign players to minor league contracts. What matters to me is the current depth of the SS and 1B position that puts these depth signings on the fringes of 26 man necessity. Arcia signed a minor league deal because nobody would offer him a 40 man roster spot. Nobody else will give Fitzgerald or Kreidler a 40 man spot. That's our current depth. 2026 is most likely going to hinge on Brooks Lee and I'm ok with Brooks Lee. I'm not going to bet against him but I'd rather place multiple bets. The ownership group and front office had a conversation and decided to go for it in 2026 and without enough money to PROPERLY fill these huge development holes at SS, 1B and C. Only SS has as anyone sniffing MLB ready (Culpepper) and he hasn't seen AAA yet. We will need Culpepper to come out of the box strong in St. Paul because we are a Brooks Lee injury away from Arcia playing every day.

Unfortunately. This sentence and it's implications will be lost by most. The margins are tiny on a per PA basis and it takes a lot of time or PA's to accumulate actual differences or separation and players will get torn apart over that separation on this website. One more hit every 12 games produces separation or closes separation. .315 was the 2025 MLB average OBP. Put in a 100 balls in the drum. Paint 31.5 of them Green... go ahead and round up to 32 green balls. Reach in and hope you grab a green one. The top hitters... the elite players at making less outs. They get 38 green balls. The really bad ones... get 27 Green balls. Now take all 3 drums and start drawing. Draw 100 balls out of each. Does anyone think it's impossible to draw more green balls out of the 27 green ball drum than the 32 green ball drum over 100 draws? How many draws do you need before replication occurs? The margins between good and bad are thin. These are the margins that determine playing time or no playing time. These are the margins that create a short side platoon.

The Twins are so thin at 1B that picking up Wagaman makes sense but... the question is... what really happens next. We can't assume health for anyone coming out of spring training... but what happens next if all the 1B options are healthy coming out of spring training. Possibility #1 - Josh Bell is our DH. Clemens (or Julien) platoon with Wagaman. Consequences of this alignment. The Twins will have one 26 man spot for either Clemens of Julien and neither of them have options. One of them was probably destined for this fate once Josh Bell was signed so the Wagaman signing doesn't change that pending decision.... Fitzgerald took care of that. Julien could be a trade consideration for a team like Colorado. However, this would put 2 1B's and another who will play 1B on the roster eating up a lot of space. I assume the Twins will break camp with Arcia or Kriedler. This leave space for 4 OF's on the roster and there are already 6 under immediate consideration with 4 other's knocking on the door (Roden, Erod, GG and Jenkins). This will force a trade of an OF. I assume with Bell handling DH... it would mean Larnach the most obvious candidate to be moved for a bullpen piece. They haven't really addressed the bullpen in free agency yet so I assume that a bullpen acquisition via trade is bound to happen. Possibility #2 - If everyone is healthy. Wagaman simply starts in AAA as depth. Needed depth. The Twins will still have to choose between Clemens and Julien for a multiple position role. Bell is our 1B and Larnach is our DH. Possibility #3 - The what happens next question will be solved via an injury removing the decision. I'll go with #3

Maybe not 100 percent but yeah... I'll bet that Arcia is on the 26 man roster day one. If he's healthy of course. If everybody on the infield stays healthy. It's probably a 75% chance he makes the roster anyway. If there is an injury anywhere on the infield. He's 100% on the roster. It's Arcia or Fitzgerald or Kriedler. Fitzgerald will go unclaimed at the price of free and he was the choice to give up a 40 man spots to make room for Wagaman. Or Kriedler who would also go unclaimed if DFA'd. I highly doubt the front office is going to go with Culpepper out of camp.

Are you sure? Are you saying those clubs never employed 1st or 2nd year Arb players?

In comparison with their peers (Typical spending range). They were money aggressive for the first 5 or 6 years from Cron and Schoop to Carlos Correa and Christian Vazquez. They hit a financial wall in 2023 and they became not aggressive going on 3 years straight now. No deals at the deadline in back to back years of contention (2023 and 2024). They have become financially passive on a grand scale and I've always assumed that is because the money is no longer there. There just seems to be no adaptation to the funds not being there as we go on year 3 as you mentioned. I don't expect them to ever spend enough money to make it work with money being the thing that plugs the holes left by the lack of development. Once you reach the point that you have to sign Ty France for everyday playing time at a million for financial reasons.... It's over at that point... you are out of cash and you need to change course. That's out of Money with a payroll in the 150 range. That range is now 50 to 60 less and you still need a Ty France. They must adapt to succeeding with multiple pre-arb players like Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to do and you have to commit to multiple pre-arb players in order to do that and this would be the perfect time to start. Develop or Die and the development track record has been unable to develop a hitter that can survive the jump from AAA to the Majors. Shelton can say it's a hard jump to make... I believe that it is but Milwaukee and Cleveland are able to navigate this hard jump multiple times and stay competitive. Hard Yes... Impossible? No it's not impossible as evidenced by Cleveland and Milwaukee.

It certainly wasn't a rebuild. It may not be a retooling either. It just might be business as usual. In regards to the bullpen... I agree with everything you say. I'm half not worried about pen and half worried about it. My not worried half comes from many years of looking at the bullpens of every team. Successful bullpens contain pitchers that most haven't heard of. Closers are created by giving someone the closer role. My worried half comes from the size of the job to be done, It might be without precedent. I don't recall any bullpen this blown up.

Just think about this for a second. The rebuild of this roster began on July 30 2025 and it ended on July 31 2025. My wife can't even drive to Ashley and buy a chair for the living room in one day.

I totally understand. You are absolutely correct. The CBA clearly shows the roster limitations that all teams must adhere to and those limitations force teams to make decisions on who gets 40 man spots and 26 man spots. Every player has a ticking clock attached to them and points of time where hard decisions must be made on them because of these roster limitations. I believe the players that they must decide between... the differences are razor thin. They are looking at a big pile of players in the middle with different strengths in weaknesses to choose from. There is simply no way for clubs to avoid spillage because development isn't linear. It's why I have been repeating over and over again for years. Every 26 man roster spot is gold and shouldn't be wasted. If the front office wants to screw around, waste roster spots on specialists, short side platoons, pinch runners, defensive specialists or PEOPLE THEY WON'T PLAY period. They will compromise discovery, they will compromise development and leave them no choice but to be searching for one year filler year after year after year. Compromising discovery. It's important because they don't know which players rise out of that big pile of players in the middle. If they knew... Ronny Henriquez and Brent Rooker would still be in Minnesota. They don't know and therefore... I seriously doubt if any of the posters on Twinsdaily know what GG, Rosario or Fedko can become. The future of these players are TBD... unless the Twins have already pre-determined their fates. It's the one sure thing. If the Twins don't believe in a player... they can guarantee their fates by not calling them up or not playing them when they do get a call up.

The front office doesn't know either. The future for all players is TBD, Coaches get paid to do something and I've always assumed they are paid to improve players. So as long as players can get better this means that stats are the past not the future. If players CAN'T get better. Just fire the coaches, analysts, all support staff because they are not necessary. We can just look at the numbers of a 22 year old in Wichita and stamp no chance on their forehead. I'm not a fan of pre-determination.

It's a question of better players. Different answers to how.

With your knowledge in these matters. I like knowing that you are having the same recurring thoughts.

I was sad when they traded Arraez because at the time of the trade. He was the one guy... and I mean the one guy in the lineup that I felt could get a hit at any time. I'm fine with the trade now. Pablo Lopez has turned into a plus addition at based on his numbers downticking... I'd say that they cashed in Arraez at the optimum time. When watching him play... It was hitting that I enjoyed. It was hitting that made him special. That aside. In regards to the question. Why isn't he scoring runs? No idea other than he's not an aggressive base runner. He's not the guy to grab that extra base and he certainly isn't going to knock himself home. That can explain some of it but not enough of it. His runs scored... as with nearly everyone but perhaps more so with Arraez is going to depend on the players behind him. You'd figure just getting on base would take care of it naturally. His best OBP year was his first year in Miami. Solar and De La Cruz were just not what other teams have on their rosters. The 2nd best OBP was his last year with Minnesota. I wasn't crazy about that 2022 Twins lineup that year either. So perhaps... it's sequencing. He just happened to have his best OBP years when the teams he played for were not very good and now that he's playing for a team like the Padres... His OBP has gone down.

I strongly subscribe to this volume theory. I talk about it frequently. The problem with volume is providing the enough playing time volume to utilize the volume of players to your advantage. This causes teams to intentionally and selectively reduce that volume and our Twins can't seem to get that right. Until they can figure out how to get this #2 system through the major league doors. The #2 System doesn't mean much to me.

Nor should you. OPS is a simple down and dirty stat that simply compares players down and dirtily. Past performance comparison by producing a single number blending two popular metrics. It's easy... so I use it more often than I should with the realization that it won't be kind to players without slugging. I always appreciate your ability and willingness to shine light into some of the dark corners where none of us are looking. When I really want to scratch my head metrically. Sometimes I feel like scratching my head. I'll take these 162 games averages and break them down per game. I do this for fun... because somewhere in my life I was unable to come up with other fun things to do. I bring this up because you kind of brought me back into that world by using 162 game averages. Carroll averages 119 runs per 162 games. Arraez 84. Carroll scores a run every 1.36 games. Arraez scores a run every 1.92 games. Then you get to Home Runs. Carroll 27 HR 162 game average. Arraez 7. Every 8 games... Carroll will bop an extra home run. Hit a home run every 8 games and it separates you from a power hitter and a slap hitter. The Margins get real thin at this point. Then you get down to per PA and the Margins are now sliced so thin that your in-laws will never come back. (If you remember that commercial). Incremental differences take time to become the larger differences that we all talk about on TD.

Just an honest question that I don't know the answer to... Nor do I have a solution. How do you get the owners to agree to an NFL type revenue disbursement when there is a disparity in the prices paid for the franchise. Cohen for example paid 2.4 billion for the Mets. It's worth 3.2 million according to those who posts franchise values. The Pohlads bought the team for 44 Million back in the 1984. If it costs Cohen to 2.4 billion to join the club of 30 owners that is now all of sudden operating on revenue being divided up equally for a level playing field. How would you get Cohen to agree to that without calling his lawyers? And then take the same process through the rest of the 29 owners? Wouldn't the Mets need to be compensated accordingly off the top?

Turning into Bader or Santana would be wonderful. However... if Bell has a great year... they will need to repeat the process next year and hope that the next player who is Josh Bell like can the next Bader or Santana and on and on it goes. The best possible outcome for a resurgent Josh Bell is that you might be able to trade him at the deadline for a Mendez type talent. That's the best possible outcome as longer term solutions are delayed going on 8 years now since Joe Mauer retired in 2018.

It's the same approach but a slightly different way to look at the value of Pre-Arb players. There isn't a magic number of how many pre-arb players you should have to be smaller market functional. For example... Boston is a big budget team that made the playoffs with 15 pre-arb players on the roster last year. Almost double of what the Twins started the season at. A high number of Pre-Arb players doesn't necessarily kill a teams chances. For example purposes... Let's say the Twins had 16 Pre-Arb. That eats 12 million out of the budget... whatever that budget is and you have 10 roster spots to fill. The Current Twins lineup projects to have 7 players making arbitration. Those 7 players are estimated to make 27.8 in Arbitration this year. This takes about 40 million out of your budget whatever it is with Arb and Pre-Arb salary level players and you have accounted for 23 out of 26 roster spots. If your Budget is 100 million like the Twins are looking like they will spend this year. That's leaves them 60 million for 3 players. If it's 153 million it's 113 million to spend for 3 players. That's 3 Pete Alonso type free agents at 30 per and you still have 23 million left over at 153. We know that Buxton and Lopez will take up 42.5 of that and two roster spots and you can subtract the 10.5 million in Dead Money due to Correa and 53 million is spent of it is spent on two plus the dead money. So one Pete Alonso instead of one Josh Bell takes your payroll to around 123 Million. Still 30 million less than the 153. If the Twins could simply fill holes with Pre-Arb instead of Josh Bell. It creates the budget space on a limited budget for extensions, for a better class free agent. I'm just plain tired of being against a payroll wall taking 20 million and spreading it over 4 or 5 spots. The Twins have catching up to do with Milwaukee and Cleveland in this regard. 2026 would be the perfect year to recalibrate... catch up to them as quickly as possible. They just need to FLOOD the system with pre-arb players... stop with the Josh Bells and let's see which pre-arb players will help win games and let them fill as many spaces as they can so we can roll into 2027 with less holes clearly identified through performance and have the CASH in our pocket available to properly fill those holes.

Disagreement is Cool. I certainly can't say who is right and who is wrong. I'll just say this: If you believe that the Twins can and should spend more. The number of Pre-Arb players matters less. If you believe that they have a budget. Counting the number of pre-arb players is critical. I believe they have a budget and am therefore fixated on the pre-arb numbers and I will always be until the CBA changes drastically. Payroll was $153,713,740 in 2023. For simplification. Divide that by 26 and it comes to 5.912 Million per player. Carlos Correa took 33,333,333 out of that total. Minus Correa and divide it by 25 and you see that Correa alone drops that average down a million dollars by himself. 4.815 Million per player is the new number. Then you add in Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez to Correa. The 5 of them cost $81.976,190. Minus that out of 153,713,740 and you get 71,737,550 and you still need 21 players. The Twins had about 10 players who were pre-arb making the minimum in 2023. That's 7.2 Million or so. This leaves you 64,537,550 and you need 11 players. This is about 5.87 per player. The Pre-arb players paid for Carlos Correa. The 10 players you need at 5.87 per. That's Arbitration money. That gives you a Kepler, Mahle, Pagan, Polanco. It buys you a Farmer. Taylor. Now imagine... you are Milwaukee or Cleveland. Still winning baseball games with 18 pre-arb players making the minimum. That will cost around 13 million in total. Subtracting that 13 million for 18 pre-arb players from the 71,737,550 left over after buying, Correa, Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez. This will leave you with 58,737,550 to spend. You can now take that 58.7 million and spend it on how many players? 18 are pre-arb and 5 are Correa, Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez. 18 + 5 is 23 out of 26 roster spots accounted for. So 3 players needed to fill out the 26 with 58.7 million to work with. That's 19.5 million Per Player. That's a higher class free agent. That's no longer shopping for Manuel Margot or Ty France because of the budget. Counting Pre-arb numbers is critical. Although not as critical if you believe that the Twins will just keeping adding on to that 153 million. Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Duran, Jax were 7 of those 10 in 2023. They all graduated into Arbitration. No longer the minimum. Players become more expensive as they reach levels. The players making the minimum will need to be replenished as they graduate. In 2025 we were down to 8 Pre-Arb. Same territory as the bog boys. Anyway... Agree to disagree... but that is why I fixate on Pre-Arb.

Very few people make the effort to understand how the stats they quote are put together. I appreciate posts that show the effort. Yes... You are completely accurate that Batting Average counts in OBP and SLG so batting average is indeed counted twice and therefore doubled in the OPS calculation. I love that you took the time to point that out. Some more OPS food for thought. When people are looking at OPS and judging with it. Despite BA counting twice... it's important to note that it is and will always be a slugging driven stat. It's really hard to OBP yourself to an amazing OPS without slugging and it will always make Arraez seem like less than he was or is. Slugging is going to rule the stat. In 2025 the average OBP was .315 and the average slug was .404 therefore the Average OPS was .719. Aaron Judge led baseball in both OBP (.457) and SLG (.688) which is .142 and .284 above the MLB averages. I love how .284 is exactly double of .142 to easily illustrate the case of Aaron Judge in 2025. Slugging provided exactly two thirds of what separates him from the average OPS. Slugging can increase your OPS .100 to .200 points where OBP can increase your OPS .50 to .75 points. Slugging is the driving mechanism in OPS. If you don't slug but don't make outs. OPS isn't going to be pretty. That's Aaron Judge. The convenient leaders in both those stats. Let's look at a couple of others. Out of the top 25 qualified OPS in 2025. The Lowest Slug was produced by Geraldo Perdomo with a .462. His OBP was .389 added together for an OPS of .851. His .132 OPS Separation from the MLB average OPS of .719 consisted of .74 OBP deviation from the league average OBP and .58 boost from the average slug. So even in the finest hour of OBP it moves the OPS needle roughly equal to what slugging does in the case of Perdomo. It illustrates that it is near impossible for OBP to drive OPS. OPS is simply a slugging stat. Arraez just isn't going to look good. Then there is this Wallner guy. .311 OBP and a .464 Slug in 2025. Added together for a .775 OPS. That is .004 below the MLB average in OBP. His OPS was .060 above the major league average. Slug was why his OPS was above average. I love Wallner... I'm not knocking him. But... for a worse example of that sort of thing. Joey Gallo in 2023 and I will knock Joey Gallo until the cows come home from wherever the cows are. I remember you once accurately referred to Joey's 2023 numbers as an Empty OPS and I loved that description. Joey 2023: .301/.440 for a .741 OPS. The MLB average in 2023 was .320/.414. After he took the .019 point OBP hit... His slugging .036 boost above average made him seem like an average MLB hitter. I have no conclusion for this. Just extra stuff to tack on to your fantastic post... everybody should read your post and understand it's implications. Gallo in 2023 looks like he's better with a .741 OPS than Arraez in 2025 in with a .719. Do baseball teams have places for players like Arraez who will never be OPS darlings? I'd take Arraez because that single to left keeps that train moving. He really needs to get his walk rate up but the lack of fear of the big long ball probably keeps pitchers away from nibbling. Do I take Arraez for the Twins this year. No I don't. But I don't want Gallo Either. Ultimately... I like players who don't make outs period. The simple out when you only get three of them an inning is perhaps the biggest run producing stat in baseball. Not making an out puts traffic on the base where the big blow pays off in crooked numbers. Crooked numbers provides space that leads to victories.