Riverbrian

Myself... I'm trying to keep my head away from the work stoppage speculation. There is going to be a lot of words typed on the subject until the two parties sit down and try to work things out. Both sides will play the PR posturing game with us and we are always willing participants in this game. I have to believe that a stoppage is real bad news for both parties and I have to hope that they can figure things out with both parties understanding the damage done. Now... if there is a stoppage. If the owners need to get the players union to agree to the things being talked about. My guess... is that the service time would continue to accrue during the stoppage. The owners probably don't get the changes they want and a service time pause. Got to give to get. If baseball is down for a full year. Good Gravy. The damage to the sport would take multiple years to recover from.

Come opening day. No matter what the Twins do this off-season. I will be optimistic because you never know what happens in the game of baseball. I get that I have a certain amount of pessimism watching the off-season as it progresses but I'll be ready to give them a chance on opening day. Now... One place where I do have some optimism in regards to the Twins is the young starters. From a stuff standpoint. Matthews looks great on the mound. He's got stuff and I'm excited to see him get better and I think he will get better if he stays healthy. I really like what I see with Abel and Festa from a stuff standpoint. If they can stay healthy... I think they can become productive major league pitchers. I've always like Bradley. Even when his numbers were down in Tampa... he had stuff that I could see paying off. SWR has produced decent numbers. His stuff doesn't excite me but... my excitement doesn't matter if the numbers are decent. Matthews is the guy I rank #1 if I had to bet on a top ranked pitcher developing out of the 5 guys I just listed and I would place a bet on all 5.

In other words. Another example of the Twins burning tomorrow for today.

Sure... but... if that's the goal. It's probably a mistake if they don't get the marketing team cranked up to get people singing songs about the product. You and I and quite a few of us TD participants are uber fans. We make up a low percentage of the people who actually know who Jenkins or Culpepper are. The attendance needle starts moving when they start winning and marketing simultaneously.

It's a 26 man roster. No leaders out of the other 25? In order to lead you need followers... Are the other 25 capable of following. They will talk to who they talk to. They will believe what they want to believe just like Tom Petty says on the album Damn the Torpedoes. 26 players and each one with a different personality. Not to mention a team full of coaches, analysts and scouts that players should be listening to along with the simple motivation of keeping a job in the profession. A leader without followers is just a guy taking a walk. I'm sorry... I'm not much for the intangible conversation. The Pirates were 19-41 in 2020. Would they have been 10-50 without his leadership that impressed Shelton? Bell has played on some bad teams... So where did he lead these bad teams to?

I hope your prediction is true because if it was my decision. I'd be flooding the roster with youth just to let the success/failure ratio fill some holes so there are less holes the following off-season. I would have rather they traded Joe Ryan or Ryan Jeffers for a young MLB ready SS but... Well... the Twins ain't gonna do that. With the direction they are going... I just don't see that happening. If Culpepper is legit. He needs time to make a loud statement in St. Paul and a month isn't enough time to make that statement. A statement loud enough that says it's OK to start his clock early... The Twins would also need to not look like a complete mess in April. Same thing goes for Walker Jenkins who we all assume is legit. There are future consequence for starting clocks early when they don't have to be rostered until Dec 2027. The consequences are that they reach free agency quicker. Starting the clock early on players who have a legit chance of being special... and doing so in a season that they are not playing for anything... is just another huge development mistake. Another example of the Twins burning development just to get through a season. And if the season doesn't mean anything... we will end up paying that bill in 2031 when Jenkins is a year from free agency at age 27 and the pundits are predicating it will take 12 years and 50 million AAV to sign with the Mets. So I see the main conditions for a Culpepper or Jenkins call up. 1. Jaw dropping success at AAA 2. A team winning enough games that they need them to compete. In the meantime. The Twins need to focus on the Pre-Arb players who are on the 40 man. Find out if they have anything to help us moving forward. Those players may not be Jenkins type talent but maybe they have enough talent that we don't have to sign anymore Josh Bell type players.

That's the thing that drives me crazy. In consideration of the 1B depth... Wagaman is almost necessary. Of course... as things stand today. If nobody else is brought in. Wagaman has options and can be placed in St. Paul for insurance... However... if he makes the 26 man roster and that can't be discounted. He will probably platoon with Clemens (Or Julien). This puts Bell at DH. If Bell is the DH. Larnach or Wallner will need to be traded because the DH spot is spoken for. When you consider that Bell and Larnach are almost the same statistically. We don't gain anything other than what we pick up in a trade... which is something I guess. We will have also used up 3 limited roster spots for 1B capable players... plus whatever sub-par SS that needs to be on the roster because you have to have a player who can play some decent SS because Brooks Lee is the only current Twin capable of playing SS. That adds up to 5 roster spots to handle DH, 1B and SS (Bell, (Clemens or Julien). Wagaman, Lee and Sub Par SS guy. Throw in two Catchers for 7 roster spots, Lewis and Keaschall to round out the IF and you are at 9. That leaves 4 spots for OF and 6 legitimate considerations for those 4 spots forcing the trade of Larnach or Wallner.

Yeah I get that. Wagaman is here now. Someone had to go. The SS depth just pisses me off to the point that I'm "Slightly Bugged" that we just gave up a 12 on a scale of 1 to 100 and are now left with a 9. We got to at least land a 16 before the off-season is done because the Twins are going for it. I won't know who it will be but I will make this prediction right now. Whoever it is. If whoever it is stays healthy... they will get at least 100 AB's this year because others won't stay healthy.

Like I said in my post. I also don't expect Fitz to remain on the 40 man with the Dodgers. It's not a big loss it's like choosing between Kevin Hart and Danny DeVito to get something down off the top shelf. The Dodgers just happened to have 40 man space at the moment and they claimed him and they may keep him when he goes unclaimed when they have to send him through waivers. All teams have roster space limitations that they must contend with. There is still off-season to go... there will be some other SS candidates who will become available when the 26 and 40 man rosters have to be finalized coming out of camp. And... The Twins could still shock us all with a trade of some sort to address the position better. For the moment though... On January 12th 2026. It just bugged me a little because I would have chosen Fitzgerald over Arcia... Over Kreidler as well. Right now... I can't discount the possibility that Arcia or Kreidler take a 26 man spot out of spring training. It's January 13th now. SS depth is a sore spot with me. All I can do is wait for news as it trickles in and see what the final product is and then how it performs.

I've always assumed that they would have to spend some money on a free agent or two to build the bullpen back up. I also assumed that they wouldn't have much to spend on positions players because they would have to allocate limited dollars to the pen. I've been disappointed as I've watched talent come off the board. With that said. I like bullpen guys who can at least touch 100 mph. Sir Anthony is one of the bullpen guys that I had circled because he averages around 98 and throws the occasional triple digits. I also like bullpen guys that average over a K per inning because they got to dig out of jams from time to time. 79 K's in 62.2 innings last year qualifies for me. Go get him because there are not many of these big arm guys left and the Twins are going for it. Gonna need some big arms guys.

In my opinion... This is the year to trade Joe Ryan. If there ever was a year... this is the year. Thinking they can contend this year... they better be right because there are real consequences to being wrong beyond losing baseball games in 2026. Delaying the trade decision until the deadline to see where the teams stands is incredibly risky. If he gets hurt or struggles. His current trade value craters. If he ends up needing TJ or something severe. His trade value go from huge to nil. We could get a Walker Jenkins type talent for Joe right now. We won't be able to get that kind of player if he gets hurt or struggles. He would have to maintain his health and performance just to come close to the same value that he has right now because value goes down when the clock ticks down. Only the scarcity of selling teams can restore the value lost... providing he stays healthy and similarly productive. I think we can mark this moment in time and easily determine during the course of 2026 if we wasted Joe Ryan's trade value for a shot at glory. We better have the glory because it's a lot to waste.

This one bugs me a little. Just a little so I'm not even sure it's a bug. Why? Like I said... it's bugs me a little and only a little... However... If I had to choose between Fitzgerald and Arcia... I probably would have chosen Fitzgerald. I understand that it's like choosing Kevin Hart over Danny DeVito for which actor I prefer to get something down from the top shelf. Fitzgerald claimed by the Dodgers suggests that he might be a little taller than Arcia. It's probably a long shot that Fitzgerald stays on the Dodgers 40 man roster but also a possibility that he clears waivers when he is sent through to make room for someone else. I honestly wasn't expecting a waiver claim this go round. I understand that nobody really cares about either of the choices and won't lose a minute of sleep over either of them. However... unless the Twins have another trick up their sleeve. Somebody is getting a 26 man spot coming out of spring training between Kreidler and Arcia.

In 2019 Chris Taylor was the primary short side dance partner for Joc Pederson in LF. The problem with Chris Taylor serving that specific role is that he couldn't serve a specific role. His ability to play every position requires him to play every position. He can't just hang around in left field waiting for Madison Bumgarner. On top of that the Dodgers in 2019 were left handed hitting heavy. 4 of their 5 top hitters were left handed. The entire starting OF was left handed. Pederson, Verdugo and Bellinger with OPS of .876, .817 and 1.035 respectively. Enter 27 year old Kyle Garlick who produced a 1,011 OPS against RHP over 262 plate appearances in Oklahoma City. When is he going to play on that team... with that outfield? The answer is against left handed pitching for Joc Pederson and a disposable short side platoon was born weather he deserves it or not. If Wagaman is taking this type of role. He no longer matters. There is no OPS large enough exclusively against lefties that will provide him a career of reasonable length.

Wagaman BTW. 514 PA's last year with the Marlins. 330 of them against RHP. 64% of his plate appearances against Right Handers. You may be right... the Twins might try to short side him. Just like they tried to short side Margot in 2024. 343 PA's in 2024. 172 against RHP... 171 against LHP. Injuries are not going to allow a team to keep it platoon clean but lets give him a roster spot. Whose roster spot will Wagaman take? Someone needs a roster spot to backup SS. Are we going down to 4 OF's just so Wagaman can take a roster spot to short side platoon? I like Wagaman but to short side him... whose 26 man spot does he take in order to face only 25% of the pitching? Wagamen, Bell, Clemens, Julien are all candidates for 1B. One of them will for sure be off the 26 man unless Clemens or Julien can play SS in a pinch. Of that group... Only Wagaman can be sent to the minors without waivers being involved. Can Wagaman shield all those left handers by himself. Julien. Clemens, Larnach, Wallner, Roden, Outman Erod, and Jenkins all need that shelter from the nasty left handers? Do you turn Martin into a short side platoon at this stage of his career to create a 2nd platoon? Do you start trading or cutting left handed hitters because there isn't enough right handed cover and we have too many left handers to face the 75% of pitching? Wagaman... who I like BTW. 514 PA's - .674 OPS Ty France 490 PA's - .681 OPS I'm sincerely glad we picked him up. Some of us are not hating... some of us are just concerned with the infield depth overall, the budget to address it, the injuries that will occur and a front office declaring that they simultaneously going for it. Wagaman ranked 35th in OPS for rookies in 2025 (100 AB qualifier). Wagaman at least as options. So no complaints on Wagaman we need the depth at the position. Just questions on how this is supposed to work if most of these guys are not going to play much at all as you say.

I don't have an issue with any of these signings. I actually like the Wagaman signing. He at least has options. However... Cris? If things go well? When have things gone well? By well... how many Royce Lewis PA's would that be? Go back and review. Take note of how many players got at least 100 AB's in 2025, 2024, 2023, 2022, 2021. If that isn't enough. Keep going until you notice the consistency. Who will be the 17 players required to get through 2026? Who will be the 17 who play in at least 30 games? Hopefully that recurring back issue that Brooks Lee deals with has been completely cured? I'm not sure the Twins are going to rip the redshirt off of Culpepper when Lewis is grabbing his hamstring on opening day? I guess it's possible they start the Culpepper clock in April when Keaschall takes a fastball off the forearm? I'd still say unlikely but certainly possible because they selected the contract of Keashall on April 17 last year. One day after they traded for Jonah Bride on April 16th and 9 days before they traded for Clemens out of necessity. Now Jonah wasn't 1 of the 17 that I counted to get through the 2025 season because he was 20 PA's short of 100. But it's worth pointing out that it was April 16th and the Twins are already fishing outside the organization for new starters. With Miranda gone as it turns out forever, Lewis still not available and Keashall about to break his forearm on April 25. 33 Games - 17 Starts for Bride while Clemens made 93 starts. Just didn't see that coming in the off-season prior to 2025.

These signings don't mean a thing unless... Unless or until they become the best or only option and there is a high probability that they easily become the best or only option. They can sign all the Arcia's they want to minor league contracts for all that I care. When Arcia is leading the team in AB's in the month of May. I'll care and it isn't hard to see a scenario where that is the case. It's not the individual players that I object to... it's the need for these players that is the source of my strong objections. Injuries occur... they occur a lot. When they occur and they will. We can all take note of the number of AB's they get. If they perform in those AB's... we can all pat the front office on the back, say way to go and marvel at their craftiness. Your article is spot on and it gets to the heart of the problem. Taking your thought one step further. The 4 players you list in your article. They are probably it for the off-season. So... As we stand today. Joe Ryan is not being traded in order to compete in 2026. Arcia, Wagaman, Kreidler and Jackson are the acquired support brought in to support not trading Joe Ryan so they can compete in 2026. We need Joe Ryan to compete and we offer Arcia, Wagaman, Kriedler and Jackson to augment/justify that need for Joe Ryan in order to compete. Impossible path to navigate forward with Joe Ryan pulling them toward victory while Arcia, Wagaman, Kriedler and Jackson are pulling that Ryan momentum backwards. Who exactly is the architect of this half measure off-season plan? Falvey? Zoll? Pohlad? All 3?

Hats off to you Matthew. I'm always appreciative of attempts like these and therefore appreciative of the work you put into it. You admit it isn't fool proof but it's a good start to a story that should be told. My recommendation would be to include more than the top and bottom guy from each game. That'll require a formula but this would be information that I would be interested in reading. Clemens won baseball games for us last year. HIs overall numbers, his streakiness, his career are all stumbling blocks to Kody getting credit for those wins but... for those of us who watched the games... We saw it... Kody Clemens won baseball games for us and some cases... almost by himself. What did you have for Ryan Fitzgerald? He came big in a few of the few games that he played. Just curious.

I don't know a ton about Kreidler. I can see his offensive stats. They ain't good but I'm not going to place a ton of weight in the numbers of any player that has had 211 scattered plate appearances over 4 years. His minor league numbers are OK at times but nothing that says this guy is a major league hitter. I won't damn him and I won't celebrate him. Somehow... with the offensive numbers being average in the minors and very little opportunity provided in the majors leaving pure small sample ugliness at the major league level. He has somehow kept a 40 man roster spot since he was added September 1st, 2022. If you think about all the movement that takes place on the 40 man rosters on all 30 teams during a given year. This guy has kept a 40 man spot for 3 years and 4 months now. That's fairly impressive and shows something. The Tigers have selected the contracts of players, during this time, they have protected players from the rule 5 draft during this time. They have acquired free agents, they have made trades. Through everything Kreidler survived. So... I won't damn him nor celebrate him. With that said. At the end of spring training. All teams have attempted to fill holes and most teams are trimming rosters. The waiver wire should fill up. Teams who see upgrades from the pile will pick off the best of the waived and waiver someone else to make space. The odds are that Kriedler isn't going to be the best of that group. Therefore, I believe that Kriedler will find no available 40 man space across baseball. If there is some space somewhere due to an injury or something. Is there a 4th team out there willing to give him a 40 man spot. That's why I believe Arcia will break camp. Kriedler will clear waivers and be playing multiple positions in St. Paul. I could of course be wrong.

I'm not sure that Fangraphs is correct. Perhaps not updated because they normally do a real good job with this sort of thing. I believe that 2025 was his last option year. He got a 40 man spot in September 2022 and finished out the year with Detroit. He was optioned in 2023, 2024 and 2025.

This pretty much says it all. Our Twins are going for it.

Not all developing players have to turn into Manny Machado. Some can turn out to be Jake Cronenworth and still be a win for the organization. Just not as big a win. The only reason I'm pointing what is pretty obvious. Royce Lewis. Royce is a higher level importance because most of assume... he's the one of the three that has Manny Machado potential. The problem is... his clock is running out of time. He is currently at 3.142 Service time with 3 more years in Arbitration. Only 925 Scattered career AB's because of his excessive injuries. Gunnar Henderson with Orioles is a potential future Manny Machado at a similar service time point as Lewis. Gunnar has cranked out 600 plus AB's for all three of his full years in the majors. almost had as many AB's in a single season. Gunnar has 1,883 career AB's. His best year was his 2nd full season. 37 dingers. 893 OPS over 719 AB's. His down year was last year hitting .274 with 17 Dingers for an OPS of .787 over 651 AB's. Royce... we have been teased by a .921 OPS over 217 AB's in 2023 and completely floored by a .671 OPS over 403 AB's in 2025. All of this is just to say the obvious. Getting Royce to Gunnar levels is critical and we need him to get there this year... not the next year. If he has another down season. Even if he gets there the following year. We might be able to enjoy the fruits for one season before he becomes a serious trade candidate due to what is now pending free agency. Yes we need Wallner and Lee to improve this season. They come nowhere near what we need out of Royce Lewis this season. If he has another sub .700 season it will be a crushing value loss that will also accentuate the value loss of not trading Joe Ryan for value this season.

Great Post! I don't care about the rankings. I care about the development of the players they sign. Emmanuel Rodriquez was signed at age 16 in 2019 for 2.5 million. He was ranked 8th. That's all fine and dandy... the numbers are what the numbers are. However the most important number is 16. Age 16. The CBA states that the Twins have 5 years before a 40 man decision has to be made. This makes a 40 man decision necessary at age 21 in the case of Erod. The Twins added him after the the 2023 season to protect him from the rule 5 at age 21. He has since burned two of three options at age 23. To put this in perspective. Matt Wallner, Steer, Varland and Julien were Twins draft choices in 2019. These 4 players acquired in the same year. Are currently 28, 28, 28 and 26 years old. Steer has over 3 years of service time. Wallner and Julien have over 2 years of service time. Age matters. It matters a lot. Yes it's hard to project a 16 year old but it's even harder when we need them to be 40 man roster ready at age 21. The spillage from these timelines has to be a problem for the majority of these youngsters and the clubs trying to navigate their development and at the same time a huge financial windfall for the very few Juan Soto types who reach free agency at age 26.

Nor should they. It's a three legged chair. Take away a leg... the chair falls over. If you can't compete decently with one leg (Free Agency)... you better become a two legged chair and quickly. The Twins actually have 20 homegrown players on the 40 man at the moment. Only 4 teams have more. Cleveland 25, Colorado 24, Detroit 21 and Arizona 21. I recognize this. My complaints about the one year rental may cause some to think that I don't realize this but I do realize this. The Twins have no budget space to operate decently in free agency and that money has been gone for three off-seasons now. Those 20 Home Grown Players have to be better and the current state of 1B, SS and C is unacceptable.

I agree with everything you are saying. I'm not sure where the confusion is. Minor league signings happen with all 30 teams. I understand this. It's elementary stuff. It's not a concern of mine... I don't worry about them and I don't tear them apart and it's really not my intention to tear apart this Arcia signing either. A minor league deal is typical routine course of business for all 30 teams. However... According to your earlier post and it's a post that I agreed with. You and I both suspect that he is more than a minor league signing and it's because of the current depth at the SS position. If Arcia reports to St. Paul and has to prove himself into a roster spot... well alright. Our suspicions were unwarranted and this is just a typical routine course of business minor league signing. France playing every day for a contender is a huge issue and it's because they don't have the money to compete. A team with no budget left to significantly play in free agency and a team not developing enough talent to cover for having no budget. That leaves trades to staff your roster sufficiently since two legs of the three legged chair (Draft/Develop, Free Agency and Trades are the three legs) are not getting the job done. Just like you say in your post above. Trades? Well, Joe Ryan is going nowhere because they are going for it. Now we have 3 questionable legs. Can't trade our prospects for vet talent because vet talent costs money and we are tapped out. We have 20 million... spent 7 of it on a 1B and we still haven't even looked at the bullpen. I type a lot of words on this subject so yeah... I'm tilting. But... forget all the words that I've typed. Nutshell: I'm concerned because our 1B, SS and C depth is so thin that Arcia could sign a minor league deal and end up on the opening day roster. Signing Ty France for a million dollars doesn't bug me. It's needing Ty France to play every single day that bugs me. In a nutshell... I can see they are not going to spend... if they are not going to spend. You better start making your own.

True... Castro has that versatility which opens the doors for playing time possibility everywhere and that's a huge advantage for survival. Finding gems is also hard because opportunity has to present itself and versatility simply creates more opportunity. Castro was a NRI in 2023. Kiriloff and Polanco were injured as the Twins broke camp that year and Castro got a spot that he probably wouldn't have gotten otherwise. I don't believe it was anyone's intention for Willi to get playing time with that roster spot. At least not initially. Willi had 34 AB's in April 2023 and that ranked 13th on the team for the month and Willi didn't do a lot with those 34 AB's. For comparison purposes... Jose Miranda had 104 AB's in April 2023. Nick Gordon with 53 AB's had more opportunity than Castro was provided. He didn't get a lot of opportunity that April despite Kepler, Gallo and Farmer all spending time on the IL with Polanco and Kirilloff still out. Nothing screamed eureka for that first month with Willi. It may have been the end of Willi Castro right there but those additional injuries and that flexibility kept him floating along. His playing time shifted around May 12th. His OPS had also bottomed out right around that time. At 56 AB's into his 2023 season... his OPS bottomed out at .607 on May 15th. Starting on May 16th while getting nearly everyday playing time at multiple positions. Willi over the next 50 AB's raises his OPS from .607 to .788 going 16 for 50 with 3 dingers to close out May. From that moment Willi was now somebody. He had a bad June but he's still somebody and he's allowed to continue into July which was a good month into September and that was a fantastic month. He ends up 4th on the team in AB's for the year in a year that we were playoff bound.