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Two formulations have the lion's share of the market for Wins Above Replacement player metrics on the baseball internet. There's a third robust model out there, though, and studying it can help us see why teams' choices sometimes defy the orthodoxy prescribed by the first two. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Though no longer the top destination for statistically-inclined baseball fans online, Baseball Prospectus was the first site to publish and maintain what we now know as WAR--though they have always called it WARP (Wins Above Replacement Player), and continue to do so. They now have a suite of rigorously-derived, state-of-the-art metrics designed to quantify each player's contributions within pitching (Deserved Run Average, or DRA), hitting (Deserved Runs Created, or DRC), and fielding (Defensive Runs Prevented, or DRP). Unlike (for instance) Baseball Reference's and FanGraphs's offensive stats, DRC (and its well-adjusted cousin, DRC+) does not rely solely on actual results, adjusted for league and park factors. Unlike either other site's pitching value estimators, DRA (and DRA-) doesn't focus on actual runs allowed or on fielding-independent pitching (FIP). Unlike Statcast-fueled expected statistics you can find on Baseball Savant, none of these stats are directly adjusted based on the difference between actual outcomes and the average ones on similar batted balls (or opponents' batted balls). Instead, these stats take a more granular, less dogmatic approach. Every plate appearance is accounted for in full. Thus, the framework accounts for the level of opposition and the friendliness of the circumstance in every opportunity being evaluated. This can lead to numbers that deviate sharply from what we saw actually happen, and that always makes fans uneasy, but again, teams sometimes make choices we consider inscrutable. It's by digging deeper into the data and seeing when a player's latent talent and actual contribution might differ from their surface-level production that we can start to explain (or even anticipate) those seemingly peculiar calls. Let's look at some places where the Twins' D-suite numbers and Baseball Prospectus WARP tell an importantly different story than the one more widely-embraced stats have been telling. View full article

The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure. I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them. What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024? View full article

Last offseason, the Twins struck gold, finding their ace for the foreseeable future in Pablo López. With the impending departure of 2023 AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray, the Twins are once again in need of frontline starting pitching. Could this promising Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher be the 2024 version of López? Image courtesy of Kiyoshi Mio - USA TODAY Sports Roughly three weeks ago, I wrote an article on three left-handed starting pitchers the Twins should consider pursuing in free agency. In the article, Blake Snell, Eduardo Rodriguez, and Jordan Montgomery were highlighted as three top-tier options that could adequately counteract the impending departure of AL Cy Young Award runner-up Sonny Gray and his 5.3 fWAR. Many who follow the Twins had concocted mock offseason plans fueled by grand ambition due to the immense optimism sprung upon by the franchise finally ending their 18-game playoff losing streak and putting up a worthwhile fight against the then defending World Series Champion Houston Astros in the ALDS. Unfortunately, the embers of those plans have been smothered by the cold cup of water that was the announcement of the Twins planning to undergo "significant payroll cuts" for the 2024 season. As Kim Ki-taek eloquently stated in the 2019 film Parasite, "You know what kind of plan never fails? No plan at all. You know why? If you make a plan, life never works out that way." To shift from the pessimism just a smidge, though Snell, Rodriguez, or Montgomery are no longer realistic left-handed starting pitchers the Twins could pursue this offseason, that doesn't mean that specific market is closed. Cheaper secondary-market free-agent options like James Paxton, Wade Miley, and Hyun-jin Ryu are available. Yet, none of these three left-handed starting pitchers are viable one-for-one replacements for Gray's production. Unless the Twins unexpectedly become willing to dish out a significant multiyear contract to Gray himself or a viable replacement like Snell, Rodriguez, Montgomery, Lucas Giolito, or Yoshinobu Yamamoto -- or take a flier on an injury-prone high variance free agent like Frankie Montas or Marcus Stroman -- they will not be able to replace Gray through free agency. Luckily, there is another market the Twins can search to find a viable replacement for Gray. Well-known, above-average starting pitcher trade targets like Corbin Burnes, Freddy Peralta, Shane Bieber, Dylan Cease, and Tyler Glasnow are the first names that come to mind. Yet, there are less-known, above-average options which, once given resources available to them that their current team doesn't provide, could become the next Pablo López. One of those options is Los Angeles Angels left-handed starting pitcher Patrick Sandoval. Sandoval, 27, has been a member of the Angels since 2019, with his best season coming in 2022. Here are Sandoval's numbers during his breakout 2022 season: 148 2/3 innings pitched (IP), 638 TBF, 2.91 ERA, 3.09 FIP, 3.67 xFIP, 3.94 SIERA, 6.3% HR/FB, 23.7% K%, 9.4% BB%, 0.48 HR/9, 76.8% LOB%, 139 hits allowed, 60 walks, 151 SO, 3.7 fWAR Highlighted by a sub-three ERA and near-elite HR/FB ratio, Sandoval's 2022 campaign was fascinatingly similar to many of the underlying metrics Gray generated during his 2023 Cy Young Award-worthy campaign. To provide context, here are Gray's 2023 numbers compared to Sandoval's 2022 in specific metrics: ERA Gray - 2.79 Sandoval - 2.91 SIERA Gray - 3.95 Sandoval - 3.94 HR/9 Gray - 0.39 Sandoval - 0.48 LOB% Gray - 76.8% Sandoval - 76.8% xFIP Gray - 3.64 Sandoval - 3.67 There is an obvious caveat: Gray pitched 34 2/3 more innings in 2023 than Sandoval pitched in 2022. Regardless, Sandoval's 148 2/3 innings are a significant enough sample size compared to Gray's 184, which is essentially five to six more starts. Like Gray, Sandoval was able to post a sub-three ERA, suppress home runs, leave the majority of runners on base, and thrive in skill-based sabermetrics like xFIP and SIERA, which provide a more quantitative insight into the underlying skill level of pitchers. Now, the current iteration of Sandoval is not as skilled as Gray, as evidenced by his lackluster 2023 season, where he produced a 4.11 ERA, 5.00 SIERA, 0.75 HR/9, 65% LOB%, and 4.61 xFIP. Though Sandoval finds himself in this current state with the Angels, what if he found himself in a more favorable situation? Enter Pablo López. While with the Miami Marlins, López operated in an environment that struggled to find ways to use analytics in player development advantageously. On the Gleeman and the Geek podcast, Aaron Gleeman of The Athletic noted that López, upon his arrival, was approached with a plan concocted by Pete Maki and the Twins pitching coaches to adjust his pitch mix through, most notably, adding a sweeper to his repertoire and using his changeup less. Sandoval, who is in a similarly regressive situation in Los Angeles as López was in Miami, would likely benefit from the same revamp that López underwent upon his arrival with the Twins. Sandoval would have to be open-minded to the proposed ideas and adjustments like López was, but there is no reason to expect he wouldn't be, as most pitchers and MLB players are open to trying different techniques to advance and improve their craft. If the Twins were to trade for Sandoval, here is what a trade offer would likely look like: Twins Receive: Patrick Sandoval Angels Receive: Matt Wallner, Marco Raya Now, trading Wallner and Raya for Sandoval is merely a hypothetical trade, not a suggestion. Trading promising young talents in Wallner and Raya is likely an overpay. Yet, the Angels plan on competing in 2024, so they will likely want MLB-ready talent in return for Sandoval, an established Major League-caliber starting pitcher. Nevertheless, the Twins would have to send a significant package to the Angels to acquire Sandoval, who is 27 and under team control until 2027. As evidenced by his performance in 2022, Sandoval can be a frontline starting pitcher. Unfortunately, he has been the victim of an unstable and dreary situation where it is nearly impossible for a player to thrive unless they are at the skill level of Shohei Ohtani or Mike Trout. If Sandoval is given the opportunity to pitch in a more progressive and sustainable situation like López was given when he was traded from Miami to Minnesota, there is potential that he thrive and become a consistently above-average starting pitcher. Should the Twins trade for Sandoval? Could he benefit from joining the Twins like López? Comment below. View full article

Let's talk trades! An idea I submitted for Twins Daily's Offseason Handbook was acquiring Mitch Keller of the Pirates for a package of Matt Wallner and David Festa. Here's a discussion on why I like Keller as a trade target, whether this offer would be likely to get him on the Twins and a look at another similar trade idea offered by another Twins Daily contributor. View full video

The Twins traded for Pablo López when he had two years of club control remaining. Then they helped propel him to the next level. If they can make some tweaks to his breaking pitches, could Nestor Cortes fit that same mold? Image courtesy of Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports (Nestor Cortes) Facing spending limitations, the Twins should turn their attention to trading for a promising starter that they can propel to the next level, just as they did with Pablo López. That means seeking out a somewhat expendable arm in a good starting rotation, who can be elevated with a tweak or two. This pitcher should be under team control for at least two seasons, and this hypothetical target should be young enough that an extension becomes part of the conversation if all goes well. That’s a tall order, and there’s no assurance that there is a López to be had this time around. But one pitcher might carry that kind of upside, even if it comes with a significant question mark. It’s Nestor Cortes of the New York Yankees. While he may not be able to match López’s elite production from this season, he could be at that perfect balance point of being realistically attainable while having a recent track record of success. Heading into the 2024 season, Cortes currently finds himself grasping to the last spot in New York’s rotation, a group that is headlined by Cy Young award winner Gerrit Cole and also includes Carlos Rodón, Clarke Schmidt and Michael King. The Yankees are also known to be gearing up in pursuit of some of the top arms in the free agent market, including Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shota Imanaga. If they land one of those pitchers, or acquire one at their level via trade, it makes Cortes all the more expendable. That’s where it would behoove the Twins to keep in contact with Brian Cashman and the decision-makers in the Bronx. The 29-year-old southpaw struggled for much of the 2023 season as he was hampered by a nagging injury. It kept him out of action for all but a dozen starts, and the results in those games were far from desirable. Cortes finished with a 4.97 ERA in 63 innings pitched, and allowed 11 home runs in that brief time. Yes, that shoulder injury is certainly concerning, but it shouldn’t be a disqualifier in terms of pursuing him in a trade. If anything, it could drop his price tag to a point where it becomes realistic for the Twins to make a move. Look no further than López’s situation while with the Marlins. He always had intriguing raw stuff, but he failed to pitch more than 111 innings until his final season with the club, and that was due in large part to an injured rotator cuff in both the 2019 and 2021 seasons. That’s the same injury that kept Cortes off the field and ineffective last year. While his velocity remained surprisingly consistent through his injury (91.8 MPH average fastball velocity in 2022, 91.6 MPH in 2023), his main secondary offerings were nailed pretty hard. Both his cutter and sweeper allowed a slugging percentage over .500, with eight of his 11 homers allowed coming on these offerings. But these pitches were real tools for him in the first two years of his Yankee tenure. They each had expected slugging percentages that were more than 100 points lower than his most recent figures, and they led to a to plenty of strikeouts and fewer hits. So if the Twins can get their hands on Cortes and rework these once-great secondary pitches as they did with López and his sweeper (which is admittedly a major 'if'), the reward could be worth the substantial risk. Cortes is just a year removed from a really promising stretch with the Yankees where he had a 2.61 ERA (0.98 WHIP) in 251 ⅓ innings pitched across 42 starts. That span started with a handful of opportunities out of the bullpen, but he soon graduated into the starting five after holding opponents to a brilliant .197/.278/.282 clip in relief. Once he secured his spot in the rotation, Cortes carried a strong 9.5 K/9 while holding opponents to a comfortable 6.4% walk rate. Care to guess what those same peripherals looked like for López in the two seasons leading up to his trade? They were eerily similar, with the young right-hander averaging 9.2 K/9 with a 6.9% walk rate. Does that mean Cortes would be destined to hit that same breakout if the Twins were to acquire him? Of course not, but you can see the appeal at the very least. The other side of this equation would be the potential cost to acquire such a player. The Yankees have had interest in Max Kepler in the past, and his one-year $10 million salary might look enticing to them after he had the best half-season of his career. Cortes would surely cost additional pieces to pair with Kepler, but it’s hard to imagine any of the top-tier youngsters being included in this deal. Could some combination of back-end prospects from the Twins Daily Top Prospect rankings be enough? Would the Yankees be interested in near-MLB ready minor leaguers such as Simeon Woods Richardson (No. 17) or Yunior Severino (No. 12)? Or maybe they’d prefer a higher-ceiling player that is still a few years away from making an impact in the major leagues such as Marco Raya (No. 4), Charlee Soto (No. 6), or Brandon Winokur (No. 8). The benefit of having a diverse pool of prospect types to choose from could come into play here, and Cortes might just be worth the investment if the price is right. What do you think? Would you like to see Nestor Cortes in the Twins’ rotation for the next two seasons? What do you think the return package would have to look like? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Every organization has players who are deemed untouchable when it comes to making trades. Here is a look at Minnesota’s assets that have little chance of being traded this winter. Image courtesy of Rob Thompson, St. Paul Saints Some organizations are not planning on contending during the 2024 season, which likely means they would be willing to trade away current value for future long-term pieces. Contending teams like the Twins must find the right balance between supplementing the current roster and adding future assets to open the team’s winning window. The Twins' current roster includes significant depth on the position player side, so that’s a strength from which the team will make moves. Minnesota’s lost TV revenue means the club plans to cut payroll by $15-30 million next season. Veteran players like Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, and Kyle Farmer are likely on the trading block to clear some salary space. After examining Minnesota’s roster, two player types are untouchable in trades. Current young players with surplus value moving forward and veteran players with high contracts and trade restrictions. Baseball Trade Values attempts to quantify each player's surplus value in a potential trade, so it’s easy to see why these players are untradeable. 1. Walker Jenkins, OF Surplus Trade Value: 45.1 The Twins selected Jenkins with the fifth overall pick in the 2023 MLB Draft, and he’s already established himself as one of baseball’s best prospects. Minnesota pushed him to Low-A, and he posted a .989 OPS in his professional debut. His surplus trade value isn’t the highest in the organization because he is far from the big-league level. The Twins aren’t trading Jenkins because he is on his way to becoming a superstar. 2. Royce Lewis, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 44.2 The Twins saw how valuable Lewis can be to the line-up in the second half of last season. He added muscle to his frame while rehabbing from two ACL tears, increasing his power production. He will get an entire off-season to acclimate to third base, his new defensive home. On a team with big names like Correa and Buxton, Lewis is quickly becoming the face of the franchise. 3. Pablo Lopez, SP Surplus Trade Value: 43.1 The Twins have yearned for an ace since trading away Johan Santana was. Lopez stepped into that role last season, and the front office quickly signed him to an extension. He had some ups and downs during his first season with the Twins, but he was fantastic in October. He will be at the top of the team’s rotation through 2027. The Twins continue to try to add to their rotation, so there is no reason to try and trade Lopez. 4. Brooks Lee, SS/3B Surplus Trade Value: 48.1 Lee has the highest surplus trade value of any player in the Twins organization because he is on the cusp of the big leagues. He has a full six years of team control, with some of those years being at a minimal cost. Jenkins and Lee are ranked closely on many national prospect lists, but Lee has a lower floor, and Jenkins has a higher ceiling. The Twins were lucky to get both players in their respective drafts, and the hope is they are in the middle of the team’s line-up for the next decade. 5. Joe Ryan, SP Surplus Trade Value: 39.1 Near last year’s trade deadline, I wrote that Ryan was the team’s most valuable trade asset. His performance struggled in the middle of the season as he dealt with a groin injury. However, there is hope that Ryan can have a healthy 2024 and reach his full potential. Some of his trade value has decreased because he is in his last pre-arbitration season. Still, the Twins want Ryan to take the next step and prove he can be a player they rely on in the playoffs. How would you rank the players listed above? Would the Twins consider trading any of these players for the right starting pitcher? Leave a Comment and start the discussion. View full article

When consuming baseball over the course of a 162 game season, multiple years in a row, it likely gets lost on fans how many people are involved in an organization beyond the 26-man roster. After a successful 2023 for the Minnesota Twins, viewing the experience through the eyes of a bullpen catcher provides some interesting insight. Image courtesy of © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports On the field, fans watched Rocco Baldelli and the Minnesota Twins play American League Central Division-winning baseball. The 2023 squad ended an 18-year postseason drought, and they swept a Toronto Blue Jays team while besting former ace Jose Berrios in an elimination game. Behind the scenes, pitchers like Chris Paddack and Jorge Alcala were working their way back toward the active roster with an eye on competing alongside their teammates. Paddack ultimately realized the goal and looked great when deployed in September and October. As those bullpen sessions took place, I connected with Bryan Ludwig, a catcher doing it all behind the scenes. Despite working as an attorney, Ludwig has had the pleasure of working with the Twins as a bullpen catcher. Wondering what that experience has been like, what he has seen, and especially the development of arms this season, it seemed like a good time to connect. Twins Daily: How do you wind up as a bullpen catcher in a major league organization? What does your baseball background look like? Bryan Ludwig: I grew up in Woodbury and played ball at Woodbury High School ('04). I attended Augsburg University, where I played ball as a C/1B/DH (2004-2008). I also played for and ran the St. Paul Mudhens (Class A Townball) from 2005-2020, managing the team from 2010-2020. Since 2020, I've been playing summer ball in the Federal League (35+) for the Lakeville Lobos and moonlighting with Baseball 365's townball team. I've been a coach with the Minnesota Twins Youth Training Academy and the RBI Program since 2010. I work traveling camps/clinics in the spring/summer and train catchers in the offseason. I have also worked in club baseball as a head coach and trainer. Mostly with Great Lakes Baseball Academy until recently. Having a seven and nine-year-old is pulling me into the coach-dad realm lately with little league and softball. I've also been a volunteer assistant coach back with Augsburg, working with their catchers in fall ball and early spring, and since 2020, I've been working with the Midwest Speed Softball Club, training their catchers during their winter season. Rehab bullpen catching is a story of "right place, right time, right person." I had a unique skill set with unique connections that enabled me to meet a unique need. I was just a volunteer with the Twins academy in 2009, trying to log hours for my volunteer requirements at law school. The Twins' lefty specialist bullpen thrower was the one running those camps at the time, and leading up to the start of 2010, he got wind that the Twins were asking around about having a local catcher on-call to be a bullpen guy. The ask was to work with the training staff as guys rehabbed and fill in for home games as needed. This was a completely new role with the christening of Target Field. While they were in the Dome, an injury was a one-way ticket to Ft. Myers to rehab because no on-site facilities were available. With Target Field opening and a state-of-the-art training room and team doctors on-site, they needed someone who could work out with the pitchers when the team was on the road, during off days, or when the full-time bullpen catcher was unavailable or needed a break. It was late March 2010, and I got a call from the Twins bullpen guy in the middle of one of my classes. He explains the situation and asked if I would be interested in reporting to Target Field the following week to work with Scott Baker, Nick Blackburn, and Carl Pavano on the field so they could get on the big mound before the home opener. The rest is history from there, I have been in this role since, except pausing during the pandemic when the organization limited who was in/around the clubhouse. I am grateful for the schedule flexibility my job as an attorney has provided to enable me to stay connected to the game, even in this small way. I have gotten to meet and interact with many amazing baseball people, and I hope to continue doing this as long as I am physically able. TD: When you get behind the plate for the Twins, what goes into that preparation? Are you working with anyone from the team to ensure you know what each guy wants to do? BL: There are two routes this goes: the in-game route and the rehab route. In-game, the preparation for the catcher is minimal. It is dictated by the situation and the call from the dugout. Also, each pitcher has their own preparation timeline. Unless it is a "get hot immediately" call, you have a general idea of who will be getting up depending on the inning and the situation. The bullpen coach and pitcher control the pen, but most of these guys have such a finely tuned internal clock they know exactly how long it will take to get hot as soon as that phone rings. Most guys will start throwing plyo balls and stretching around the 5th/6th inning, and once they get on the mound, it is anywhere between 15-25 pitches to get hot. The other job in-game is warming up left field. Otherwise, the bullpen is just baseball guys being baseball guys on the bench. For rehab work, it is a little more regimented. The training staff establishes a back-to-throwing program with built-in bullpen days. On those days, there is usually some pre-bullpen treatment and workout for the pitcher: long toss to a specific distance, some throw a short flat ground pen to work on release points and grip, and then a full pen on the big mound or out in the home bullpen. Everything monitored closely to ensure all the movements and metrics are improving or back to normal for a guy before they can go out on minor league assignment for a start or in-game relief work. The training staff I have worked with have been amazing at letting me use of all the tools and resources the big leaguers get to use to get ready to throw. On rehab days, I check in with the trainer to get the session plan, do some light band work and stretching, get on my shins, and head out to the first baseline for long toss. (I'm a Minnesota Townballer. Show-n-go is how we roll.) TD: This season, we saw the Twins put together one of their best starting rotations in franchise history. What was it like to work with those guys, and how was their stuff different than what you had seen in the past? BL: There is no denying that this was one of the most talented staffs the Twins have had in a long time. Aside from pure talent, one of the things that made this staff unique is that each pitcher, starting or relief, was uniquely complimentary to every one of the other guys on the roster. Pablo Lopez and Jhoan Duran did it with power and flair, Sonny Gray and Caleb Thielbar were bulldogs with control and finesse. Up and down the staff, there was a near-perfect balance of power and finesse, and guys like Pablo and Sonny took the lead on establishing a bulldog mentality across the staff. As an inside-outside observer, there were no wasted opportunities, and they attacked offenses versus just trying to hold an offense off. A lot of credit also goes to the Twins pitching coaches who fostered and supported that approach and gave all of these guys the tools and information necessary to find another edge or slight adjustment to add to their personal pitch arsenal. When you've seen big league "stuff," it is all elite, and pitching has outpaced hitting in how it is tracked, analyzed, and adjusted. I can talk about my thoughts on that for hours. Still, I think what made this staff so difficult was the consistency of its makeup that gave opposing offenses the sense that getting a starter out of a game only meant a constant barrage of difficult arms from the pen and on the days the starters went deep, they were equally unhittable. TD: Having done work with some of the guys rehabbing with the intention of making it back for the postseason, what tipped you off that they may be ready? How did their stuff look? BL: There are all kinds of measurables and metrics (spin rate, pitch depth, pitch shape, velocity, vertical break, horizontal break, etc.) that can give the team confidence that a guy is ready to step back on a big league mound. Those are all invaluable data points, but from my position, there is also a perceptible change in how a particular pitch moves or the snap of my mitt that I can tell the last piece has clicked into place. For some guys, it's that "out pitch" that bites a little harder, that changeup that disappears like a magic trick at 59 feet, or the fastball that has little lift that tells you "this guy is back." Sometimes, it's even a simple look they give after they let go of that breaking pitch at 100% for the first time, and it has the life and movement they expect. When they start repeating that output on the rehab mound, you can visibly see a weight lifted off their shoulders. I think any catcher would agree, when a pitcher is dialed in and that glove snap is just a little bit louder, you just have the intuitive sense that no hitter will be able to touch it. For all the data and technology, there is still a lot of raw feel in the moment that informs that player that they're ready. The tech, trainers, and coaches will confirm it, but that moment is always fun to be even a small part of. TD: You have seen plenty of pitchers while working behind the plate. Is there a guy or a pitch that jumps out as something that has always just been special? BL: 2014 All-Star Game aside (that is another fun story), It is not velocity that impresses. It is the movement and pinpoint control these guys have on pitches that can move 22 inches horizontally or drop 14 inches and still catch a corner. For the Twins, if you want to talk about wipeout pitches, it is tough to beat a Francisco Liriano slider or a vintage Joe Nathan curveball. However, that Duran splinker is, in fact, some ridiculous voodoo magic. Regarding a special moment, I spent an entire summer with Michael Pineda as he rehabbed from TJ. Seeing him progress and become a force in the rotation in 2019 was incredible. That grind was real, and he poured everything he had into it. That human element gets lost sometimes with fans who don't get to see that day-to-day drive and passion first-hand. TD: For Minnesota going into 2024, how confident should the quality of depth returning make fans feel about the pitching? Why can this group go out and again put up strong numbers? BL: It will be tough to replace some of the departing arms, but there is real buy-in from the returners to what the training and coaching staff want to develop with these guys individually and as a cohesive unit. The seasoning of some of our younger arms, along with the sustained presence of key vets, makes for a firm foundation to build off of the successes of this season. The bullpen will remain a force, and will be anchored by one of the most electric closers in the game (Duran), but Paddack is the guy I am most excited about. It is a bit of a wild card at this point, but if the Twins don't re-sign Gray and assuming a healthy season, I think his range of outcomes starts at something like 70-80% of what Sonny gave this rotation to a seamless replacement from Paddack in 2024. In both circumstances, Twins fans should be excited by that. TD: End it with something fun. What has been one of the best moments or stories you can share since working in this role? BL: I had the honor of serving as one of the bullpen catchers during All-Star Weekend in 2014. I was assigned to the World team during the Futures Game and the American League during the workout day, Home Run Derby, and All-Star Game. I was in the World bullpen for the Futures game and got to warm up a young stud named Jose Berrios before his start. This is where I have to get romantic about baseball because it is rare that you recognize one of those "stop and take it in" moments, but that was certainly it. During the game, I got to work with players who span the globe, some of whom didn't speak English. Each of the pins on the globe, MLB team affiliations, and varied languages didn't matter on that day because we all spoke the same language of baseball. There were no cross-ups. No missed signs. Just a couple of guys having a catch on a warm July evening with each new pitcher that entered the game. There are many other moments and experiences from that weekend and the years of being granted the opportunity to strap on the gear and play this small role with my favorite childhood team. That particular experience sits at the top for me because it was the perfect baseball microcosm. At the end of the day, players will come and go, and teams will rise and fall, but the game holds this baseball community together. The game lights us up every February as teams report to Spring Training and a new season begins. From the tee-baller in a jersey five sizes too big to the big leaguer catching the last out of the World Series, the game is the heartbeat. **** Baseball is a sport everyone experiences differently, and the barrier to entry is so low. While mastering the game is an art form, appreciating it is beyond a straightforward understanding. Bryan Ludwig does something fun outside of his regular work schedule, and hearing how that has all played out was quite the experience. View full article

The Twins had three Gold Glove Finalists, but the trio failed to win the top honors. Here are the highs and lows for the team in the final SDI rankings. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports Defensive metrics have come a long way over the last decade. With Statcast tracking every batted ball, the amount of information available to fans is at an all-time high. One metric the Society for American Baseball Research (SABR) developed is the SABR Defensive Index (SDI). According to SABR's website, the SDI "draws on and aggregates two types of existing defensive metrics: those derived from batted ball location-based data and those collected from play-by-play accounts." Since 2013, SDI has been used as part of the process for selecting Gold Glove winners. The rankings below are the final totals for the 2023 season. Pitcher (AL Ranking): Pablo Lopez 3.2 SDI (2nd), Sonny Gray 3.0 SDI (3rd) Lopez and Gray were Gold Glove finalists and finished in the top three in the final SDI rankings. Gray made a tremendous jump in the season’s second half to move from the bottom half to the top five. Lopez ranked well for a large portion of the season and might have put himself in contention for a Gold Glove in future years. Former Twins pitcher Jose Berrios won his first Gold Glove and ranked as the top pitcher in the AL, according to SDI. He has been a tremendous defender throughout his career, so it was long overdue for him to take home the hardware. Catcher (AL Ranking): Christian Vazquez 3.5 SDI (4th), Ryan Jeffers -0.3 SDI (10th) Vazquez saw his offense suffer during the 2023 season, but his defense continued to rank near the top of the league. He more than doubled his SDI total from August 13th to the season’s end, which can be challenging for catchers at the end of a long season. Jeffers had a positive SDI earlier in the season but saw his total drop in the second half. He still finished in the top 10, and the Twins had enough confidence in him to start every playoff game behind the plate. It will be interesting to monitor how this duo continues to rank in future years as they work together. First Base (AL Ranking): Joey Gallo -0.2 SDI (5th) For most of the season, the Twins had no one qualified for the SDI leaderboard at first base. Alex Kirilloff’s injury forced the Twins to use other options at first, including Gallo. The Twins had confidence in Gallo playing first base when they signed him last winter because bench coach Jayce Tingler worked with Gallo in Texas. Gallo’s defense wasn’t outstanding, but he did enough to finish among the top five AL first basemen in SDI. Second Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify The Twins used Edouard Julien and Jorge Polanco at second base during the 2023 campaign, with both struggling defensively at the position. Polanco posted a -9 OAA during the 2022 season, and he was worth -7 OAA during the current season. Julien entered the season with a reputation as a poor second base defender, but he worked hard and saw improved results. He had a -2 OAA in the middle of August and ended the season with a 0 OAA. Minnesota will need to decide on their defensive alignment for the 2024 campaign, and Julien might get more time at first base. Third Base (AL Ranking): No Twins Players Qualify Minnesota used a variety of players at third base this season, including Jose Miranda, Kyle Farmer, and Royce Lewis. Miranda’s defense was poor (-6 OAA), but a shoulder injury impacted him throughout the season. Lewis was learning a new position after playing shortstop for most of his professional career. He moved from a negative OAA in August to a positive OAA by the season’s end. With a full offseason, one can expect Lewis to be even better at the hot corner in 2024. Shortstop (AL Ranking): Carlos Correa -2.7 SDI (9th) Correa was a surprise inclusion on the list of Gold Glove Finalists, but that speaks to how much the players and managers respect him in the voting process. He didn’t rank well by many defensive metrics, including a negative SDI and 1 OAA. His plantar fasciitis likely impacted his defensive ability during the season, which was one of the reasons for fluctuations in his metrics. Twins saw what he could mean defensively in the playoffs, with Correa making multiple game-changing plays. Following the season, the Twins named Correa the team's best defensive player as part of the Diamond Awards. Left Field (AL Ranking): Willi Castro 1.5 SDI (4th) Castro didn’t have a strong defensive reputation when he joined the Twins, but he put together solid numbers at multiple positions. He played six defensive positions and posted a positive OAA at second base, third base, and shortstop. Left field was the lone outfield position where he didn’t have a negative OAA (0 OAA in LF). Joey Gallo ranked among the AL’s top 10 in August, but he played more first base down the stretch (see above). Center Field (AL Ranking): Michael A. Taylor 6.3 SDI (5th) Taylor looked like a potential Gold Glove finalist at mid-season before stalling out. He dropped from a tie for third in SDI to fifth overall in the final rankings. His OAA ranks in the 95th percentile, seven points higher than last season, and his arm strength ranks in the 90th percentile. Taylor was everything the Twins could hope for and more in center field, and the team will need to re-sign him or find a replacement this winter. Right Field (AL Ranking): Max Kepler 2.5 SDI (5th) Like Kepler’s bat, his defense made considerable strides in the second half. In August’s SDI update, he ranked 9th among AL right fielders, and he finished the year in the top-5. The Twins have always thought highly of Kepler’s defensive value, and he finished the year with an OAA in the 86th percentile. Kepler’s slow start( some due to injury) likely cost him a chance to be a Gold Glove finalist for the second consecutive season. Are you surprised by any of these defensive rankings? Who would you rank as the team's top defender? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

The Minnesota Twins have signed players to a number of precedent-shattering contracts in the past few years. Let's take a look at how these long-term commitments might affect their ability to pursue other big-time deals this offseason. Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports When the current front office took over, the Twins had almost no history of handing out nine-figure contracts, nor anything remotely close. The only time Minnesota had ever surpassed the century mark (in millions) was Joe Mauer's $164 million extension, signed after his MVP season in 2009. Over the past four years, Derek Falvey has repeatedly reset the standard for this franchise. First he signed free agent Josh Donaldson to a $92 million deal. Then it was Byron Buxton receiving a seven-year, $100 million extension. Later in the same offseason, Carlos Correa received a $103 million contract, which was really more of a one-year pact, but the Twins backed it up emphatically the following winter with a $200 million blockbuster to bring him back. Then, for good measure, they signed newly acquired starter Pablo Lopez to the biggest contract this franchise has ever given a pitcher ($73.5 million). These big-ticket moves show how much the Twins have evolved in terms of spending habits over the past five years, and their increased payrolls have underscored this shift. Still, we all know there is a limit, and that now becomes more of a planning consideration because the books aren't as clean as they once were. Here's a look at the six guaranteed contracts Minnesota is currently committed to, and how the player salaries map out in the coming years (note that everything after 2028 for Correa is a vesting option): In looking at this chart, one thing becomes very clear: the Twins have a whole bunch of money tied up in 2025. With Lopez's salary escalating massively (this would have been his first post-FA season), Correa making the highest salary of his entire contract, and Paddack getting a healthy boost, the Twins will owe almost $95 million to these six players alone. (For the record, the team's total payroll in 2014 was $85 million.) So what does this tell us? Additional spending money will probably be sparse. The Twins had a record ~$150 million payroll this year, and while that might grow a little by 2025, it probably won't grow much. In fact, considering certain economic trends, it seems more likely that ownership will be looking to dial back a bit. The good news is that Minnesota's young wave of talent will bring a lot of cost efficiency to the roster, which is a big part of the appeal. But here too, salaries will be escalating as players enter and advance through arbitration. Bottom line: the front office is probably going be pretty limited this offseason in terms of what they can commit to the 2025 payroll. This makes it a little difficult to envision any sort of high-scale contract for a free agent – even a relatively reasonable deal to bring back Sonny Gray (i.e. 3/60). The flip side is that all of these big payroll hits are delayed by one year. Those six guaranteed contracts will collectively pay out $25 million less in 2024 than in '25. This means that unless the Twins are looking to scale back spending substantially next year (and that is possible) there is a clear opportunity to invest in a short-term solution at a high price. Needless to say, Gray accepting the qualifying offer – which would equate to roughly a one-year, $20 million contract – would be ideal. That's very unlikely. But there are other ways to take advantage of this situation. For example, the Twins might be more open to taking on the full salaries of a trade target such as Paul Goldschmidt or Pete Alonso, who we highlighted as potential pivots from Alex Kirilloff at first base. There are also a number of high-profile and high-upside starting pitchers in free agency who could be seeking one-year deals to bolster their value – if the money is right. Frankie Montas stands out as one intriguing possibility. Recognizing the realities of the Twins' books and their nuanced salary commitments going forward can help properly set expectations for what they realistically can and won't do this offseason. If we're being honest, they've already probably made all their long-term bets, but that doesn't mean they can't find ways to go big this winter. View full article

The Twins were carried by pitching for much of the 2023 season, especially when it came to the starting rotation. But how would their frontline arms match up with the starting corps of the Texas Rangers and Arizona Diamondbacks? How far off are they from looking like a World Series-caliber rotation? Image courtesy of Thomas Shea-USA TODAY Sports While the Twins could not reach the World Series this year. We can assign blame to various factors, including lack of offense at critical moments, poor timing defensively at others, and savvy postseason-experienced veterans of an American League dynasty may have been too much to handle in a best-of-5 series. It takes a complete team to have success in the postseason. (And a little bit of good fortune.) But when you focus on the starting rotation, the Twins make an interesting comparison with those currently in the World Series. So, how do they stack up against these championship contenders? Staff Aces Rangers: Jordan Montgomery (3.22 ERA, 188 IP, 21.4% strikeout rate, 3.7% walk rate, 4.3 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Zac Gallen (3.47 ERA, 210 IP, 26% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 5.2 fWAR) Twins: Pablo López (3.66 ERA, 194 IP, 29.2% strikeout rate, 6% walk rate, 4.5 fWAR) As it stands, each of these three arms had stellar seasons, even ace-level in some respects. They each stayed healthy throughout the year, starting at least 32 games. All three had strong strikeout and walk rates under the hood and found themselves in the top 13 regarding wins above replacement for a starting pitcher. Montgomery was a mid-season addition at the trade deadline and had a fantastic two-month stretch with his new team, where he had a 2.79 ERA across 11 starts, even though his strikeout numbers were just OK. Gallen has been one of the best starting pitchers since being traded to Arizona in 2019, and he has taken a significant leap to ace status since the beginning of the 2022 season. The Snakes' top arm is becoming quite the household name after pitching 396 innings of 3.04 ERA ball over the last two seasons. These stats are purely looking at each player's regular season numbers. But if we consider the two brilliant performances that López accomplished in the playoffs, this one looks even closer. If the Twins had pushed the Astros series to a winner-take-all Game 5, López would have had another chance to shine under a national spotlight. With another start like his first two in the postseason (0.71 ERA, 12 ⅔ innings pitched, ten strikeouts, three walks), the Twins' ace might have a big enough reputation to top the other two arms, but instead the edge has to go to Gallen. Next arms up: Rangers: Nathan Eovaldi (3.63 ERA, 144 IP, 22.9% K-rate, 3.8% BB-rate, 2.5 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Merrill Kelly (3.29 ERA, 177 ⅔ IP, 25.9% K-rate, 9.6% BB-rate, 3.2 fWAR) Twins: Sonny Gray (2.79 ERA, 184 IP, 24.3% K-rate, 7.3% BB-rate, 5.3 fWAR) There is a case that Gray had a superior season to López, but for this exercise, we'll have him line up as the second starter. Considering how the two lined up in the Wild Card series, it's only fair. Again, all three starters in this matchup had rock-solid campaigns, though Eovaldi missed a handful of turns in the rotation due to forearm soreness. Still, each pitcher showed top-of-the-rotation stuff when healthy and arms that you would easily roll out early in a playoff series. Eovaldi has lost a couple of ticks on his once-electric fastball, which is understandable for a 33-year-old veteran. But he still found a way to get out of jams by inducing plenty of ground balls (86th percentile). He was one of the best at limiting damage with runners in scoring position, where his opponents hit an anemic .168 against him (third-best in baseball, according to Inside Edge). That's extremely valuable, especially in high-octane settings like the MLB playoffs. Kelly has some of the best off-speed stuff in the game but showed a tendency to lose control in 2023. His chase rate was in the 88th percentile, and like Eovaldi, he got plenty of ground balls (68th percentile) to help him wriggle out of danger. While he isn't on the same level as Gallen, Kelly is still a formidable opponent. Gray had the best season of his career in 2023, and he will almost certainly find himself getting some Cy Young award consideration. He was as consistent as any pitcher in the game, with only two blemishes on his 32-start game log. Gray was the best of these three pitchers at limiting hard contact, especially on pitches in the strike zone (.394 opponent slugging, second-best in MLB). That helps to provide some context as to how he avoided giving up the long ball (just eight home runs allowed all season). Regular season numbers might point to Gray having the edge, but his start against the Astros in Game 3 of the ALDS proved how anything can happen in one game. The Twins might not have Sonny Gray to include in this list next year, yet his abilities equal that of a good number two starter in any playoff series. Rounding out the playoff rotations: Rangers: Max Scherzer (3.77 ERA, 152 ⅔ IP, 28% K-rate, 7.2% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Diamondbacks: Brandon Pfaadt (5.72 ERA, 96 IP, 22.3% K-rate, 6.2% BB-rate, 0.3 fWAR) Twins: Joe Ryan (4.51 ERA, 161 ⅔ IP, 29.3% K-rate, 5.1% BB-rate, 2.2 fWAR) Here's where things get dicey for all three clubs. The rotations take very similar turns at this point in a series, as all three of these arms are likely facing short starts in high-pressure games. Scherzer is a slam dunk for the Hall of Fame when that time comes, but he finds himself playing through a nagging injury that kept him out of the rotation for weeks leading up to the ALCS. Still, the allure that made him an enticing trade acquisition at the deadline remains. He still possesses elite expected numbers (86th percentile xERA, 90th percentile xBA) and has an extensive history of turning it on in October (3.86 ERA, 29.2% K-rate across 140 career postseason innings). But he was lit up in his two starts in the ALCS, where he allowed seven earned runs in just 6⅔ innings pitched. Pfaadt was one of the better pitching prospects in Arizona's farm system coming into this season. His regular season numbers may have been pedestrian, if not disappointing, but he has been a revelation in the postseason. Across his four October starts, the righty has a 2.70 ERA with a 1.08 WHIP across 16 ⅔ innings pitched. Ryan should be considered an exciting arm for Twins fans going forward, but his lone playoff start against the Astros showed he's still a step behind the veterans in his rotation. In 2023, Ryan gave up home runs at an alarming rate (1.78 HR/9) and ran out of gas in the second half. His strikeout-to-walk rate shows there is still a lot to like for the 27-year-old, and it's encouraging to see him start his off-season with an evaluation from Driveline. Still, the edge has to go to the savvy veteran in Scherzer or the hot hand in Pfaadt. What do you think? How do you see the Twins' rotation matching the Rangers and Diamondbacks' rotations? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

The Minnesota Twins constructed a 2023 team built around significant depth. After having to cycle through a handful of arms to complete the season, they became one of the best rotations in baseball. Repeating means they’ll need to add, but how? Image courtesy of © Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Going into the season, the front office made a difficult decision to flip fan-favorite batting champion Luis Arraez in exchange for Pablo Lopez. That worked out wonderfully for both teams, and the Twins got an Ace. They backfilled Arraez’s spot with Edouard Julien and now have much more praise for the move. Lopez will be back and start on Opening Day for Minnesota. Behind him, Sonny Gray is not expected to be back. Sure, he is a free agent and could be signed to a new deal by Minnesota, but he will have no shortage of suitors, and the front office shouldn’t be paying him for the Cy Young performance he put up this season. Allocating dollars to Gray would need to include a belief in his performance over the next two or three years, and Derek Falvey could undoubtedly opt to spend those dollars elsewhere. Therein lies the rub. This free-agent pitching class isn’t exactly ideal. Shohei Ohtani wasn’t ever going to be likely for the Twins, but he isn’t a pitcher next season, and the prognosis for the future remains uncertain. That leaves the top names being Blake Snell and Aaron Nola. Again, there will be no shortage of suitors for their services this year, and Snell coming off a Cy Young award isn’t going to drive his price down at all. Looking at the Twins rotation, though, it might not be about spending on the open market at all. The Twins know they need to increase pitching depth and doing something like pushing Bailey Ober to Triple-A makes sense. This year, that would probably come in the form of Louie Varland, but doing so with a starter that slots in just above him can’t happen. Lopez will be the ace, and then some combination of Joe Ryan, Chris Paddack, and Ober will work behind him. Adding a Gray-level starter or someone better than Kenta Maeda needs to be the plan, and they can find that match by contacting the 29 other teams. When looking to restock the Twins rotation, Derek Falvey hasn’t spent significantly on a starting pitcher. Lopez’s dollars came through an extension, and Gray had already brought team control with him. That means working a trade is already a path he has shown plenty of ability to do and has created depth within the rotation. The front office may consider a few depth arms worth packaging toward a more prominent player. Brent Headrick, David Festa, Simeon Woods Richardson, and Cory Lewis are all varying degrees of players who may fall into this category. There is also the glut of infield options that the Twins have at their disposal. Brooks Lee is likely off the table, but Yunior Severino, Austin Martin, Anthony Prato, Michael Helman, Luke Keaschall, and Tanner Schobel are prospects for which playing time may eventually need to be found. Hitting on another arm through trade is something that should also bring a level of comfort due to the recent track record. Sure, the Twins front office has their fair share of misses, but the last two frontline starters that have been acquired represent substantial wins. It’s not every trade that you’ll find a Joe Ryan-for-Nelson Cruz lopsided outcome, but being able to effectively scout yourself and the competition when making big swings is a skill. No matter how the Twins go about player acquisition this offseason, they will have multiple options. Just because the crop on the open market may be expensive or less-than-ideal doesn’t mean the Twins have to participate. Falvey has done a great job reminding us that his work construction isn’t done until Opening Day arrives. View full article

The Twins’ season ended over a week ago, but Pablo López is already reaching new heights. How good was the club’s budding ace, and what does his next level look like? Image courtesy of Jordan Johnson-USA TODAY Sports This year, there weren’t many notable individual accomplishments in the Twins’ postseason run. But undoubtedly, one of the shining achievements was staff ace Pablo López emerging as a true frontline starter on a national stage. In his two starts, the 27-year-old righty totaled 12 ⅔ innings pitched with 10 strikeouts and three walks, giving up just one earned run while he led his team to two massive wins. We’re talking about a tiny sample size with just two games, but these performances came after the best season of López’s career. He had a career-high in innings pitched (194), strikeout percentage (29.2%), and fWAR (4.5) in his first year with the Twins and named as a finalist for this year’s Gold Glove award among pitchers. When asked about his first season with the Twins organization at various post-game appearances throughout the year, López lauded the information he received from the club’s baseball operations department, especially as it pertained to building and developing a sweeper. “The Minnesota Twins are willing to provide us with every single resource, every single opportunity to get better as a player,” he said in a press conference in late April after signing a four-year extension with the club. “In spring training, the first thing we did was sit in a room for three days straight to really get to know my identity. Then it was finding out what that next gear is that we can find.” López and the Twins indeed found that next gear, and it led him to an All-Star selection and his team to their first playoff win in nearly two decades. But with that memorable season in the rearview mirror, he is already gearing up for 2024. López was recently spotted at Driveline’s facility and underwent a thorough assessment. For those who don’t know, Driveline is a data-driven development program that has been successful for countless major leaguers, especially pitchers. Their research has a reputation for helping pitchers gain strength and velocity, using state-of-the-art tools to train and develop their clients. Driveline isn’t new to López, or the Twins, for that matter. The righty also visited their facility before the start of this season. But now that he’s shown considerable progress in a career year, López, the staff at Driveline, and the Twins’ training staff can access even more data as they determine what clicked for him in 2023. The goal would be to maintain that success while finding that next gear, as López said. So, what does that next level look like? López was above average in most areas in 2023, so where could he find significant improvement? While his four-seam fastball was still a great option in his repertoire, it got hit harder than his sweeper, changeup, and even his curveball. Opponents hit .268 on that offering, with a rather-high .468 slugging percentage. Now, there is a lot of nuance as to why that could be, and more brilliant minds would better diagnose any hypothetical issue with the pitch. But adding more velocity to his heater (which averaged a respectable 94.9 MPH in 2023) could be that marginal improvement that pays dividends in the future. It could be that extra gear that helps López continue climbing that hill. And Driveline can help him figure out when and how to switch gears as he makes his ascent. That next level could mean a new high-water mark for innings pitched if he can stay healthy as he did this season. It could mean even more strikeouts if he can get his fastball to play up or add a few ticks of velocity. It could mean even further development of his sweeper, which he used to get a swing-and-miss 36.6% of the time. Those could lead to additional accolades for López, whether that means getting the starting nod on Opening Day, another All-Star selection, or even Cy Young award consideration. But if you ask López what that next level is, he almost certainly would talk about what it would mean for his team. That means more postseason appearances and even further success. “I just want to go out there and give the team the best chance to win,” he said in an in-game interview during his gem of a start in Game 2 versus the Astros. “It’s the preparation, routine, and discipline that gets you here.” What do you think? What does Pablo López’s next level look like? How do you think he gets there? Let us know your thoughts in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. View full article

Just how accurate was our robot overlord? Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports If you can recall the two posts I made almost exactly eight months ago, PECOTA—the flagship projection system from Baseball Prospectus—had some thoughts regarding the Twins. Well, it had thoughts regarding every player, but we only looked at those set to don Minnesota jerseys. Enough beating around the bush: here’s how well the computer did. (After-season numbers are taken from Baseball Prospectus’ leaderboard found here for pitching, and here for hitting.) Perhaps most notable at the time was PECOTA’s optimism surrounding Pablo López, who joined the Twins as something of an unknown, possessing immense strikeout potential without the full season of unquestioned dominance. Turns out, the system was actually a pessimist: López crushed it in 2023, turning in 4.8 WARP, good for 3rd in MLB. PECOTA was also too low on Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Bailey Ober; all three starters bested their projections, with Gray doubling his assumed WARP. Louie Varland can claim underrated status as well; he wasn’t even in the original post and ended up as the eighth-most-valuable pitcher on the team at the end of the year. Also, the computer was absolutely correct in regards to Emilio Pagán, whose ERA (2.99) and FIP (3.26) were freakily close to his projections. Perhaps this is a lesson in patience, or—rather—that giving up a lot of homers isn’t necessarily innate in a pitcher’s DNA; this is a weird and frankly unfair game we’re fans of, and Pagán proved that the difference between a hero and a villain is often just a few feet. Finally, the Jovani Moran train may have hit a cartoonish boulder, crashed, and exploded in a fiery rage, but he actually came within tickling distance of his projection thanks to a whiff rate amongst the best in MLB. He appears a good bet to rebound next season if healthy. Now, let’s move onto the batters: It, uh, didn’t do great here! Let’s start with the positives: PECOTA nailed Max Kepler’s bounceback season, actually underselling him by a few points of DRC+, but otherwise prophesizing his best season since COVID hit. It also warned people not to be too down on Royce Lewis; we all know how that went. But… yeah, this one is a mess. Minnesota’s 2nd and 3rd most valuable position players ended up being Willi Castro and Matt Wallner, not Jorge Polanco and Carlos Correa. Byron Buxton ended up behind Christian Vázquez. Jose Miranda is lost somewhere in the Joey Gallo void. Gallo himself… it’s best to keep his name locked up in a box, lest uttering it releases curses unto humanity. I'm a little humored that Trevor Larnach couldn't escape his fate, essentially nailing his pedestrian prediction. It's clear this was a season dominated by the unpredictable; be it the rookie onslaught or Castro's elevation, the exact shape of Minnesota's offensive production was atypical, but eventually effective. ---------------------------------- Overall, I’m impressed with how accurate PECOTA was in regards to the pitching staff. Some hurlers blew past their projections, but the order was mostly in line with how the season played out. Calling on Pagán to exceed wasn’t something perhaps any Twins fan could do. Hitting was a big miss—anyone who predicted Willi Castro being Correa’s equal in DRC+ would have been hanged as a witch. Projections are helpful, but there’s a reason they play the games, and strange and unusual things happen when competitors at the highest level face off against each other. View full article