Riverbrian

Our front office decided to go for it and after 107 games of going for it. They find themselves 1 mere game out of the wild card and 3 mere games behind in the AL Central. I'm sorry to all that feel differently but they need to be buyers. If they decide to NOW NOT go for it and not THEN! What a waste of service time and therefore trade value when they were actually somewhat successful and against the odds that most of us put on them. If they change course now... We got bigger front office problems than the scope of this specific discussion. At the start of the season I would have bet that our starting pitching would be OK and our offense was going to struggle. It has been the reverse.

You'd have to assume that Caratini will not return much in a deal since the Twins outbid others for his services therefore pricing him out of any significant return value. One year at 7m absorbed might increase value but your declining year would probably erase the possible increased value. All things equal. If I had to choose between Jeffers and Caratini... I'd choose Jeffers without second thought. The money is what causes the second thought. I worry it will cause a significant moving of money around. Who knows... maybe Tom is sincere when he says that the investment will be there but investment in returning players would possibly limit investment in NEW players and I'm not sure the fan base is going to buy tickets for that.

If he takes the QO. Unless they trade Caratini it will add up to 30 million invested in the catcher position for 2027. That's a little rich for my blood with all of the other roster spots that must be filled.

I agree and the only assumption that I make in regards to trades is that there isn't much point trying to evaluate who won or lost a trade at the moment it happens. Analytics which I assume every team is utilizing is going to force trades to fairly close to value equal. Trades will be won and lost after the trade depending on the performance or the development of the players acquired.

A bidding war is the only way you can make up the difference between a full year and two months of control. WIll it be enough?. It's one of those things that we will never know since we wasn't moved in the off-season.

Looking at the trade deadline activity in recent years will be pretty sobering for those expecting elite prospects in return for Jeffers. Who knows... maybe I'll be surprised. Who knows... maybe Jeffers remains a Twin.

I get the impression that the MLB GM's are pretty disciplined. I believe the days of getting the #1 Ranked Prospect Torres and 5th Ranked prospect McKinney for Chapman are over. Who knows... Maybe I'll be surprised.

I'm not sure what the Yankees will give up for a two month rental. I'm not in the room and have never been in the room. Based on what typically comes back for higher end rentals like Jeffers. I wouldn't expect any players ranked in the top 5 of any organization. it's more likely you get a couple of players ranked in double digits... 10 or higher. Maybe 3 if they really really really need a catcher.

Players go up and players go down. Round and Round they go. It's a long season but I have no concerns about Kreidler whatsoever at the moment. Teams have winning streaks and losing streaks. It's the way baseball works. His past doesn't matter. His now and tomorrow is what matters. Kriedler is a welcome member of the Twins 26 man roster.

The Twins shouldn't continue the season with three catchers on the roster. Since Caratini has another year left on his deal. I assume he is going to remain a Twin. That means they have to try and pass Jackson through waivers or trade Jackson. Or they have to trade Jeffers. Unless of course... An injury changes the equation in the next week. Olivar or Cardenas or Banuelos will need to be ready for possible MLB work if an injury occurs in August or September if Jeffers is traded or Jackson doesn't get through waivers. Or... a Rortvedt type pickup will be needed to get through the year. I'd expect Tait and Lackey will not be rushed up no matter what happens.

It was September 1, 2024. The Twins were 74-62 a wildcard team 4.5 ahead of Boston and 5 ahead of the Tigers and the Tigers were a team full of young players after they traded their vets at the deadline. Two weeks later on September 15, 2024. The Twins were 79-70 and the Tigers with a team full of young players after they traded every single vet they had at the deadline had reduced the deficit to 2.5 games. One week later on September 22, 2024. The Twins were 81-75 and the Tigers were now a game in front of the Twins. A couple of points. 1. During the days between September 15 and September 22. We had a way too healthy contingent of TD posters openly hoping the Twins would lose. Typing those actual words "I hope they lose" on Twinsdaily. I'll never forget that and I know who those posters were and still are. 2. The TIGERS SOLD EVERYONE at the deadline. They were 52-58 on August 1. 8.5 Games behind the Twins and with a team full of kids the Tigers passed us by with room to spare as the Twins finished 4 games behind them. Those kids in Detroit were the best team in baseball in August and September and we had Twins fans cheering for the Twins to lose on September 18th. The points: A. We have Twins fans on TD who do this sort of thing. Twins fans who openly cheer for them to lose on a Twins fan website. B. Trading Jeffers doesn't mean they are are going to lose.

Last game Left Handed Starter July 26 - Jeffrey Springs - Won - 11 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 7 RH 1 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 13-20 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.36 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Accumulated Stats vs RH Starters Season Record vs RH Starters: 40-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.92

I get the impression that there are a lot who are paying attention to other things. I'm not convinced that platoons do what they are intended to do in regards to wins and losses... but I struggle to convince. You are correct. You are seeing it. The three switch hitters on our roster rank #1 Bell, #2 Lee and #6 Caratini in AB's vs lefties and all 3 are below average against them. Our #3 most AB's against lefties is Keaschall and also below average against them. We have 4 above average and they rank #4 Martin, #5 Buxton, #7 Clemens and #10 Jeffers in AB's against lefties. Granted Buxton and Jeffers have been hurt and that will drag those AB's down. However... we have given 426 AB's to below average performers against lefties to and 315 to our only 4 above average guys... why... The hand of the starter is the primary method to determine who starts a ball game. Managers tend to just lock in... just as long as they are standing in the correct batters box. I'm just not convinced that it is helping produce wins and losses. No matter how good Roden is and that is yet to be determined. He won't yield decent trade value in the future if ... if... he manages to keep a 4 or 5 year career and if is the key word.

Judgement Call - Tonight we had a left handed starter Basso who went for 2.1 innings followed by a right hander Barnett who threw 3.1 innings. This game really needs it's own category but I'm not creating one so I'm going to place this game in the right handed starter category. The reason it goes in the RH starter category is because the lineup was a right handed starter lineup. We have three lefty hitters and all 3 of them were in the starting lineup. Along with all 3 switch hitters. The bench was filled with right handed hitters. July 25 - Mason Bartnett (Brady Basso) - Won - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starter: 40-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.92 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Accumulated Season Averages vs Left Handed Starters Season Record v LH Starters; 12-20 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.16

Last Game Left Handed Starter July 24 - Jacob Lopez - Loss - Zero Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 3 Switch 0 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-20 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.16 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ Season Accumulated stats vs Right Handed Starters Season Record vs RH Starters: 39-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.96

I have no problem with any of the suggestions made as individuals. Improvement is improvement and I have no problem with improvement but the idea of wasting our prospect resources on Taylor Ward to platoon as a short sider with Larnach is... just a waste period. You trade for Ward to make the team better every game the rest of the season. But, before you trade for Ward. I'd rather that they prioritize need first and that prioritization should be pitching followed by pitching followed by pitching and before the prioritization finally makes it way down past our pitching needs... infield should come before outfield and it isn't even close. We have Lewis, Clemens, Kreidler and Lee and Gray down in the minor leagues. Beyond that? With three catchers on the roster... Caratini is playing 1B which shuffles the infield and I'm ok with the shuffling when necessary. However... what happens when injuries occur on the dirt? Culpepper probably isn't coming up with labor uncertainty next year because I'm not sure it's sensible to burn a year if he ends up golfing in 2027. We have Gray in the minors who is probably the first phone call when we trade a catcher. The infield depth is incredibly light. Two injuries and we are calling Arcia. However... you are correct. Pitching is the first priority. Bullpen and Starters are the priority. I posted this in another thread: Team starting pitching is ranked 24th in baseball in ERA. Our Bullpen is ranked 27th in ERA. We are 5th in Team OPS vs Right Handed Pitching. (7th Today after yesterdays quiet performance). We are 26th in Team OPS vs Left Handed Pitching. Our performance against right handed pitching is the only thing keeping us alive. Our performance against left handed hitting isn't good but it's the lower percentage play. We need pitching.

How can that be? We have 8 players standing in the right handed batters box every time a left handed starter takes the mound. We have strip mined and therefore compromised the futures and (future trade value) of every left handed hitting prospect just to handcuff them to player occupying a limited roster spot whose primary purpose is to be a "lefty killer" to face 28% of the pitching. How can that be? The Twins have already declined future development for Austin Martin by limiting his exposure to right handed pitching so how can that be? The 2nd most AB's vs Left Handers belongs to switch hitter Brooks Lee who has a .610 OPS against them. But he is able to stand in the correct batters box so how can that be? We have 7 Right handed hitters and we have 3 Switch hitters but you want to add another one as we focus on the 28% problem. Ignore the respectable 4th best .733 happening right now in order to place more weight on the past? Attack the problem by attacking the part that isn't a problem? Call up Culpepper to play 2B as a short sider? Trade for Glayber Torres to play 2B as a short sider? We can currently put 10 Right Handed hitters in the box against left handed pitching. 11 ought to solve the problem. I'd suggest finding talent period... but in the meantime... I'd spend less time worrying about the 28% and focus more on the 72%. It's a bigger number. .

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 23 - Gavin Williams - Won - 3 Runs Scored (12 Innings) Lineup Composition: 6 RH 2 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 39-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.96 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters 4,29

Big Game - Need a W Gavin Williams has stronger splits against left handed hitters. Therefore no Larnach and no Roden against the right hander. This will be the third time we have faced him this season. July 2nd was the last time. We lost the game 5-2. Larnach, Clemens Gray and Roden were in the lineup and went a combined 1 for 13. Only a hit by Gray. Switch hitters Lee and Bell went 0-8. The Twins only managed 3 hits total that game so it's not like our right handers were killing. In addition to the RBI single by Gray. Lewis had two hits including a home run. The first time we faced him was May 10 and we won that game 5-4. Larnach and Clemens were in the lineup and went a combined 4-8 aided by Kody going 3-4. If you factor in the the three switch hitters who hit from left handed batters box... Lee and Bell with one pinch hit appearance by Caratini against lefty Tim Herrin in the 9th. They also went 4-8. Which Williams will show up?

Starting Lineups are set primarily based on the what hand the starting pitcher throws with. The starting lineup gets the majority of the AB's in a game, the starting lineup makes the majority of defensive plays and the starting lineup does the majority of the baserunning in a baseball game. So... anything that is a primary factor in the determination of who starts a baseball game is quite significant. I have no doubt in mind... it is fact that our starting lineups are primarily determined by what hand the starting pitcher throws with. There are slight adjustments made but primarily... starting lineups are primarily determined by the hand of the starting pitcher. Major league pitching is 72% right handed and 28% left handed. That's everyone. We have zero pitching that throw with their feet unless you include Tyler Rogers. Our current roster goes against the averages. Our current roster contains three pure left handed hitters (Larnach, Clemens and Roden) and 3 switch hitters (Bell, Lewis and Caratini). That leaves 7 Right handed hitters to round out the roster. We can put 9 players in the starting lineup against the 28%. We currently put 6 batters max in the lineup against Right handers. Despite this disparity... Our hitting against right handed pitching has been great and is the the primary reason that we are still in contention. Team starting pitching is ranked 24th in baseball in ERA. Our Bullpen is ranked 27th in ERA. We are 5th in Team OPS vs Right Handed Pitching We are 26th in Team OPS vs Left Handed Pitching. We are 38-34 against right handed starters and 12-19 against left handed starters.

Not only did the Twins score 10 runs last night but they scored 10 runs without their two best hitters statistically. Jeffers and Buxton with a .950 OPS and .902 OPS respectively did not play. The Twins still have the top run producing offense in the American League with 4.81 Runs Per Game. The Twins average 5.01 Runs Scored per game vs Right Handed Starters and they have a 38-34 record when Right Handers Start the Game against them. The Twins average 4.29 Runs scored per game vs Left Handed Starters and they have a 12-19 Record when Left Handes start the game against them. The disparity is getting pronounced despite jamming the lineup with 8 players in right handed batters box against the southpaws and still struggling. Switch hitters Bell and Lee lead the team in AB's vs Left Handers. Bell is decent against them... 5th best on the team with a .710 OPS. Lee... has work to do with a .610 OPS against lefties. For comparison purposes... Trevor Larnach had a .608 OPS against lefties last season. The only left handed hitter we deploy against left handed pitchers is Kody Clemens. Kody is ranked 4th in OPS against left handed pitching with a .724. Cody had a .482 OPS in 89 PA''s against left handed pitching last year. In his prior seasons. Kody had a total of 21, 19 and 22 PA's against left handed pitching. The Twins are 7th in MLB in runs scored per game. There are 6 NL Teams with more runs scored per game. Yeah you can guess Dodgers, Cubs and Braves in that top 6 and you would be correct with and teams 3, 4 and 6. The Nats are #1 with an enormous 5.50 Runs per game. The Nats have 10 out of 13 players on their 26 man roster under 3 years experience. The Pirates and Esmerlyn (Who is this guy) Valdez are #2 and the Brewers #5. The good news is that we do face a Right Handed Pitcher this morning. We will stack the Left Handed Batters Box with 5 players at most if Caratini is hurt. 4 players if either Larnach, Clemens, Roden, Lee or Bell need a day.

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 22 - Slade Cecconi - Won - 10 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 38-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 5.01 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters 4,29

Last Game Left Handed Starter July 21 - Parker Messick - Loss - 2 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 2 Switch 1 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 12-19 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.29 -------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs RH Starters: Season Record vs RH Starters: 37-34 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.94

The 2 1 and 2 occurred against left handed starters. The 4 occurred against a right handed starter. Our Twins are 37-34 against Right Handed Starters and 12-19 against Left Handed Starters

Agreed That asymmetry is what has me started on this journey. I've made the contention that if you want to play the splits correctly. It isn't a left/right handcuff that only lasts as long as injuries allow them to last... it's rostering players who can primarily hit the 72%. I recognize the platoon split advantage. There are a lot of AB's over time that consistently show left vs left is the worst hitting matchup and left vs a right handed pitcher is the best hitting matchup. In other words... more left handers in the lineup is playing the split correct... more left handed pitchers in the rotation and in the pen is playing the split correctly. But forget all of that. You and I both know that this conversation is about talent... I could care less what batters box they stand in and I'm growing concerned that the conversation ceases to be about talent when teams are trying to math this thing together by making the platoon split the PRIMARY MECHANISM FOR LINEUP CONSTRUCTION. So I'm checking Wins and Losses to see if there is any reason for the platoon split to be that primary mechanism. Larnach and Wallner facing 72% of the pitching is going to require two roster spots of players to face the 28%. You are right... Kyler Fedko isn't going to be afforded that leniency. Austin Martin is also going to develop into nothing and the Twins need to develop. Not only to staff a 40 man roster with players that make the minimum but also for future trade value. Folks on Twinsdaily are talking about trading Larnach and in the same breath they say he doesn't have any value. Well,.. would we have more value coming back in a trade for Trevor Larnach if he could OPS .700 vs lefties. Yeah it's less than what he does vs right handers but still functional. What trade value can be gained if you just deny from the very beginning? If you deny from the beginning are you even trying to increase trade value. So... the question becomes... what do you gain in the short term? Does it win games now? That's why we rob the future... to win games right now!!! That's why I'm tracking win and losses. W's is why they do it. Have your SABR buddies run the numbers on a per AB basis. .343 OBP vs a .275 OBP. What exactly is the advantaged gained on a per AB or per game basis when it takes a larger sample to produce those differences. Gain? Cost? Did we win enough to justify the death of Austin Martin? Because we have to kill an Austin Martin in order to rob Trevor Larnach or Alex Kirilloff or Matt Wallner or Julien. Or pay 4 or 7 million for a Margot or Grichuk. Did we lose every game Keirsay started last year? We were 11 and 10 in games that Keirsay started on a team that was 70-92. Would we have been 15-6 in those games if he wasn't allowed to play? Nature or nurture? Kody Clemens is currently our 4th highest OPS against lefties. Is that nature or nurture? I'm not sure Kody Clemens has been nurtured against either hands with his total plate appearances over 5 years. He wouldn't be facing lefties at all if Wallner was still around. Larnach has a .588 career OPS over his career. That's not good but it can't be denied that there has been no attempt other than last year to nurture it. You and I both know that .588 isn't static. Wouldn't it stand to reason that if a player is in a hot streak that that streakiness would also apply to matchups against left handers as well. If you are seeing the ball good you are seeing the ball good. I recognize the platoon advantage... it's real. But at what gain and at what cost. Just develop hitters. This season... I can tell you... We got a bunch of right handers on the roster who can't hit left handed pitching. What are we developing? Kriedler? Why doesn't anyone question this?