Riverbrian

Let me present another look at what needs to be considered. Pitchers get hurt. They get hurt often and sometimes severely. Here is the nightmare scenario. And it's a scenario that isn't out of the question because he's a pitcher... and pitchers get hurt. Joe Ryan feels some tightness... let's make it June for the worst timing possible... they check it out and say "Tommy John". This would be really unfortunate timing for Joe because he will be coming back right around the time that he reaches free agency and I'd feel really bad for him personally... because he would be losing a lot of money in free agency based on how he was performing when he went down. But... Forget about Joe. More importantly... Let's worry about me. My team... The Twins!!! Here's how that horrible event attaches itself like zebra mussels or landmines to the the Good Ship Riverbrian. 1. He's out for this year and most if not all of next year... and then he is a free agent. He will have thrown his last pitch for the Twins. 2. Was a 52.7 trade value on BBTV. When he gets back... All of that trade value is gone!!! 3. That is the equivalent value of Bryce Eldridge... who is the equivalent value of Walter Jenkins. The loss to the Twins... the damage to my team... It's roughly the equivalent of Walter Jenkins suffering a career ending injury. That's what the loss of that value is. The potential loss of that hypothetical horrible scenario is... ???... Like removing Walter Jenkins... Gone... vanished without a trace from our now and future. 4. This isn't to debate if the Giants or Twins would make that trade nor to debate BBTV values or the value of the players themselves... Nor is it even to debate how many wins the Twins will have without Joe Ryan in 2026. It's to make the point... we get nothing. We have a player with upper end value that can return upper end value in a trade and the possibility of injury isn't far fetched. I respect the opinion of anyone who thinks we shouldn't trade Ryan... that means you Byron Buxton. I just ask you to consider the injury risk. I don't want to trade him but I'm trading him if his trade value is indeed that high. It takes value to get value!

Batman and Robin always escaped. The Joker, Riddler, Penguin and Catwoman always leave the room. They walk away every time before the deed is actually done. If they would just stay and watch the conveyor belt pull them into the saw and confirm that their bodies are indeed cleaved in two they'd win... But they don't.

My opinion and many will disagree. I think 2026 should be whatever happens happens but the path to whatever happens happens should be the accumulation of talent. If the Twins can identify and roster young hitters who actually hit the ball. Wins just might take care of themselves. If it doesn't... well they should be better in 2027 and forward. The need to find young hitters will still be necessary even if Ryan remains on the club. The other risk... that scares the pants off me. An arm injury that requires Tommy John or something. His Value is gone as soon as that happens. I see the desire to keep him because I would like to keep him but... I think the time is now.

Tomorrow is another interesting day. More clues to the direction of this roster. Stay Tuned

That is true High School draft picks will still be two years older. College Draft Picks can in theory be controlled into their 30's.

The clock simply works against them. Signed at 16... 5 years until you have to make a 40 man decision on them. Only the superstar will be trusted for MLB duty and ready at age 21. So the non-superstar player with potential... if they survive the 40 man decision at age 21... Will burn through options to buy more maturity time and become forced 26 man decisions at age 24. It's a tough clock to deal with and it probably produces a lot of casualties compared to the high school draft pick that is two years older and two years older each benchmark. Or the popular draft pick perhaps safer pick these days... the player drafted out of college that you have 4 years to make a single decision on and that comes at age 26.

We basically agree. My preferred choice would be to trade for a 1B prospect and on that we agree and that's why Lowe would disappoint me. If I had to choose between Lowe and O' Hearn... I'd take Lowe so we agree on that but I will be disappointed that a young 1B wasn't acquired somehow someway. Where we differ is his value. His value will be set by the contract he signs and his value will be maxed out when he puts pen to paper even if it's as low as 4 or 5 million because the reason it's low is because that is the most that any of the 30 teams are willing to pay. That's how free agency works. You max out your trade value by signing for more than the other 29 teams will pay. Now... that value can be fluid so there are ways around it. Like I mentioned... if he has a Bader type resurgence we may be able to flip him for a decent prospect like Mendez at the trade deadline to a team dealing with a significant injury at 1B. A two year contract? I don't see it. There are some big money teams that will trip over themselves for Alonso... after that it's a big drop off and not lot of teams without decent 1B considerations already. O'Hearn, Arraez, Lowe, Hoskins all have to find work and there will be another group of 1B needing to find work next year. I'd just caution against that bet because 1B in my opinion is not position scarce. Every power hitting bat that can't run enough to play other position slides into a 1B position. Teams will often times transition players to 1B to fill holes that occur. Fedko... I'm not going to worry about Fedko until the Twins worry about Fedko. If Fedko gets added to the 40 man down the road. He will then become a consideration for me. I guess... If Lowe was the acquisition... it wouldn't be the end of the world but the kicking of the can down the road will continue and I would hate that.

Agreed. Yet it still boils down to development in the end. In order to acquire players as prospects... you have to develop something of value that interests the other teams you are trading with and then develop the prospect acquisitions that you acquire. There is no way around it. The Twins have to improve development across the board on players drafted or acquired.

I am under the impression. I may be wrong... I may be right... but I am under the impression that Joe Ryan has the highest trade value of any player on the current 40 man roster and that's why you trade him. I am also under the impression because of money owed that the trade value difference between Joe Ryan and Pablo Lopez isn't close. Therefore because of this impression... may it be right or wrong. Joe Ryan is the guy you trade in an attempt to bring back higher quality young talent. If you are going to trade these guys... Let's not mess around with marginal attempts at talent acquisition.

I'd prefer lefthanded. I don't even want to consider platoon specialists at all so his splits are encouraging in order to remove any manager temptation to whip out the platoons and compromise developing talent. Nobody should feel he is overrated. Anyone who was released and DFA'd by two clubs in a 3 month span should never be considerations for any type of over rated designations or those foot stomping hand clapping over rated chants from the crowd. Yes... He costs too much and that's why he is available. The Nats couldn't trade him and the Red Sox couldn't trade him because he costs too much. Now that he is a free agent. He goes straight into the pile somewhere between O'Hearn and France. He should find his correct level. Where will that level be? Can the Twins afford it? This Year Yes... Last Year No. It's a matter of should they? I'm going to stay consistent. No more one year contracts? We have to stop this never ending chain of low dollar one year contracts at the 1B position. A two year contract could be considered but... free agents sign for the most dollars they can get and most teams have developed a young 1B so it's not a position of scarcity. Therefore whatever Lowe signs for... he will be value maxed out and have NO TRADE VALUE unless he gets playing time and goes nuts. If Lowe goes nuts and plays better than what he was with the Rangers. Maybe... Maybe he could be traded at the deadline for a Mendez size talent for a Bader type resurgence. However... right now we are still talking about someone who was released by the Nationals because the Nationals felt it was more important to commit that roster spot to the development of youth despite the Nats owing 10.3 million in full. And that is where the Twins should be in 2026. Full commitment to the development of youth. So I'm out. 😉

It was a Good Year... Not a Fire Stone.

When it's time for the call up. I believe it is best if your best player has multiple paths to the major leagues. If the guy is playing SS exclusively in the minors and hitting the ball. Does he have to wait until the SS and the SS only gets injured for the call up? If he can slide to 2B or 3B or even CF... He gets the call when the majority of players are injured instead of waiting for one specific spot.

I agree the Twins are extremely light in this department. However... The league really has to do something about the IFA's. These kids are being signed at 16 and clubs have 5 years before they have to make 40 man decisions and this puts them at age 21 come decision time. A 21 year old who is worthy of 40 man spot is generally a pretty special player. Erod is only 22 and has already burned an option. GG is 22 years old and he has to be given a 40 man spot and start burning options. On the other hand. College players drafted at 21 or 22 can be held in the organization for 4 years until they are 25 or 26 before a 40 man decision comes a knocking and that's going to get the Twinsdaily crowd saying things like too old to be a prospect. When Erod and GG are given 40 man spots... They are the same age as Wallner after his 4 years at Southern Mississippi. 21 and 25 is a big difference. The players who get protected are top of the pile and the really special players like Juan Soto,,, They reach free agency at age 26 and those players get those 13 year contracts. MLB has to figure out how to balance this better. If they find that way to do that... I assume that we would see even more players from the Dominican or Venezuela in the majors because they'd get that extra bit of time to mature.

Julien has me perplexed. He's out of options so... he's on the edge of whatever reality is about to face him. Anyone can argue with me but 2023 was a good year for us because Julien was great that year. Julien had as much influence on that winning season as anyone. .263/.381/.459 in 408 AB's in a rookie season is incredible. You hate to let that go but... he's out of options and he's had 448 AB's in the past two years of well below average. He seems to be our version of Outman. Julien has better career total overall hitting stats but Outman has defensive skills and can take a base. Outman produced .248/.353/.457 in 483 AB's in his rookie season. 23 Home Runs and 16 stolen bases is a toolsy player. The problem is he's out of options and his past two years have been 270 AB's of not well below average like Julien but well below well below average. If you are trying to unlock Outman... might as well try to unlock Julien as well but... you just can't give them much rope. Julien and Outman are just a couple of reasons why you need to be careful with how we feel about Keaschall at the moment. After all Keaschall was .283/.382/.445 in his rookie year in 182 AB's and we declared Julien King with those numbers... even better numbers and we are declaring Keaschall King going into 2026. All of this is part of the reason why I'm insistent on talent accumulation beyond a starting 9 because some are just going to fail and who is impossible to predict. The Twins have an opportunity to just load up on youth and let them show you who wants a longer term job.

Hey, anything worth doing is. And we're gonna teach you.

13 Millions is a decent price for what Ward produced last season. However... we are still talking about the Orioles and 13 million is 13 million that can't be spent elsewhere and their pockets have always had limitations. PItching has been often quoted by many as the primary need in Baltimore so... everything just loudly points to what is wrong with Grayson. Currently Baltimore has Ward, O'Neil, Cowser, Beavers, Kjerstad, Taveras and Trimble for 40 man OF options. None of them are decent CF candidates too my knowledge. My guess is that Baltimore could be headed toward some decent size turnover this off-season.

Can Morel play 1B? Does Foley have any arm left? Morel has certainly got pop. The rest of his everything else has been pretty poor but there was a time when Morel was supposed to be a talented upcoming young player. Is there anything to rescue? I assume that nobody took him in trade offers? Minor League Deal?

OK... So they do need to hold cutable folks. Next Question? Are teams required to roster 40 players on the 40 man? Can they roster 39?

Relief pitching options is what I would be searching for. In regards to McCusker and Keirsay... They confuse me a bit and I assume that I have to get a better understanding of the process. Do you need to roster players for future designation purposes?

Hard to say where the problem lies but it's easy to say that there is a problem because offensive prospects are crashing against the major league shores. Other than infrastructure suggestions that I'm not qualified to suggest. Development needs to go from zero to sixty by yesterday. My suggestions... Fully commit to development at the major league level instead of fully committing to Ty France and Manual Margot types in an attempt to mathematically squeeze out marginal advantages. If you are playing Ty France every day because you believe that the product you are developing will lose games if they play instead of France. You need to stop and think about what that is telling you. If you have 3 left handed hitters on your 26 man roster and you are looking for right handed bats to complete your 26 man roster. Stop for a second and think about the damage you are doing to the future value of the young left handed hitters whose parts are being strip mined. Actually think about future value of your prospects in the process of making utilization decisions. Start Right Now!

My immediate thought is: How bad is Grayson's arm? The medicals have to have a question mark. Pre-Arb with 4 years of control traded for an OF with 1 year of control left at 13 million?

Agreed Mendez has to be our Hatteberg. Just a mere rumor of it combined with a hard to explain acute need at 1B combined with 47 bodies to climb over in the outfield and I'm calling him 1B before he even picked out the mitt. The presence of McCusker and Keirsay remains a curiosity.

If everybody goes to sleep this off-season. Here's your infield. Lewis - 3B Lee -SS Keaschall -2B Clemens - 1B Julien - 1B/2B Kreidler - SS/3B/CF

And here we go. 40 Man is full. Additions will require subtractions. 19 Pitchers 12 primarily considered to be starters - 7 primarily considered to be relievers. 21 Position Players 3 primarily considered to be Catchers (Stashing Gasper into this bucket). Because you have to stash him somewhere. 8 primarily considered to be Infielders (Stashing Mendez and Kreidler into this bucket). I'm going to assume the rumors are true and they will move Mendez to 1B and Kreidler can play anywhere defensively. 10 primarily considered to be Outfielders