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The MLB offseason requires creativity for mid-market teams who want to remain competitive. The Twins have a recent history of swapping big leaguers for big leaguers with other teams, but has that worked? Let’s turn to history for the answer. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA Today No team wins every trade, but competitive teams need to win more than they lose. It's pretty straightforward to pick winners and losers when a team trades MLB contributors from a position of strength to bring in other MLB contributors for a position of need. These are often called challenge trades, and the Twins have made them a habit under this front office's tenure. I challenge you (no pun intended) to think of an offseason trade since 2016 that sent away an MLB player for the Twins. If that trade wasn't Gio Urshela for Alejandro Hidalgo, you just thought of a challenge trade. The only time that the Twins have truly sold—i.e., traded an MLB player for a prospect—was that second Urshela trade. Below, I've listed every trade that could be considered an offseason challenge trade (or sell) under Derek Falvey. Before we begin, some housekeeping. I provided stats for each player with their new team. A player's performance is not included if they were again traded or signed elsewhere as free agents after the original trade. This analysis doesn't have future performance, either. This information is accurate as of November 15th, 2023. Those with an * indicate that the player is still in the organization they were traded to, so the complete picture isn't available. I will also be providing some context for each trade. Comparing statistics does not necessarily indicate which team won the trade, so I have done my best to explain why the trade occurred. See the Yankees trade below for an example of why comparing statistics isn't ideal. Although the Twins lost the trade by WAR, it cleared the salary owed to Josh Donaldson and gave them the room to sign Carlos Correa to his first Minnesota contract. Without further ado, my subjective order is from best to worst. 3/13/22: Minnesota acquires Gio Urshela (551 PA, 119 OPS+, 3.1 bWAR), Gary Sanchez (471 PA, 88 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR) from New York (AL) for Josh Donaldson (666 PA, 90 OPS+, 2.3 bWAR), Isiah Kiner-Falefa (892 PA, 81 OPS+, 2.9 bWAR), Ben Rortvedt* (79 PA, 28 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), -1.0 bWAR for Minnesota. There's much to unpack in this trade, primarily orchestrated to clear up salary room from 2022 to 2024 and rid themselves of Donaldson. Donaldson was a solid contributor for New York in 2022 but wore out his welcome, and the Yankees waived him before the end of 2023. Kiner-Falefa also lost his starting shortstop role, handling a super-utility role when his contract ended after 2023. Rortvedt has played minimally in New York due to injury. Urshela and Sanchez spent a year in Minnesota, but neither returned for 2023. Although both Urshela and Sanchez had contracts that offset some of Donaldson's, the Twins are no longer paying either, and that excess money helped to bring in Correa before 2022 and 2023. 1/20/23: Minnesota acquires Pablo López* (194 IP, 117 ERA+, 3.3 bWAR), Jose Salas* (has not reached Minnesota), Byron Churio* (has not reached Minnesota) from Miami for Luis Arraez* (617 PA, 133 OPS+, 4.9 bWAR), -1.6 bWAR for Minnesota. The Twins tabbed López as the Opening Day starter after the trade that sent the reigning batting champion Arraez to Miami. After four great starts and a four-year, $73 million extension, López finished seventh in the AL Cy Young. Churio and Salas were promising prospects many did not anticipate being included in the deal, though it's questionable whether either will make it to the big leagues. Arraez won his second consecutive batting title and placed eighth in the 2023 NL MVP voting. He's under team control in Miami through 2025. 2/9/20: Minnesota acquires Kenta Maeda (277.1 IP, 106 ERA+, 3.0 bWAR), Jair Camargo* (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (NL) for Brusdar Graterol* (173.2 IP, 158 ERA+, 3.5 bWAR), Luke Raley (72 PA, 43 OPS+, -0.5 bWAR), +0.0 bWAR for Minnesota. Maeda finished second in the 2020 Cy Young voting during the shortened season but struggled in 2021, had Tommy John surgery, and re-established himself in 2023, though not without continued injury concerns. At the time of the trade, the Twins knew he may have elbow issues. Graterol has been a solid force in LA's bullpen when healthy. Camargo has not reached the majors, while the Twins traded Raley to Tampa. This trade also sent a 2nd round pick to LA. 4/7/22: Minnesota acquires Chris Paddack* (27.1 IP, 95 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR), Emilio Pagán (132.1 IP, 112 OPS+, 0.9 bWAR), Brayan Medina (has not reached Minnesota) from San Diego for Taylor Rogers (41.1 IP, 87 ERA+, -0.2 bWAR), Brent Rooker (7 PA, -100 OPS+, -0.2 bWAR), +1.1 bWAR for Minnesota. This infamous trade sent away the Twins' top reliever, Rogers, who struggled in San Diego. Rooker, a depth outfielder, only registered seven plate appearances for the Padres but wound up a 2023 All-Star with Oakland. In return, the team received Paddack, who had known elbow issues, pitched well in five starts, then underwent Tommy John. He returned as a bullpen piece down the stretch in 2023 and will likely open 2024 in the starting rotation. Pagán largely struggled through 2022 as a high-leverage arm, but he posted a sub-3.00 ERA and led the bullpen in innings in 2023. Medina is currently in Rookie ball as a starter, and the Twins retained most of Rogers's salary. 3/12/22: Minnesota acquires Isiah Kiner-Falefa (did not reach Minnesota), Ronny Henriquez (11.2 IP, 173 ERA+, 0.2 bWAR) from Texas for Mitch Garver (559 PA, 121 OPS+, 2.5 bWAR), -2.7 bWAR for Minnesota. Coming out of the lockout, Minnesota made a move that killed two birds with one stone: got a return for the off-injured Garver and filled a hole at shortstop. Garver has dealt with injuries in Texas but has still hit well, though relegated to mainly DH. Kiner-Falefa was a Twin for one day before getting traded again, and Henriquez threw a few innings in 2022, but the Twins released him after the 2023 season. 11/18/22: Minnesota acquires Alejandro Hidalgo (has not reached Minnesota) from Los Angeles (AL) for Gio Urshela (130 PA, 84 OPS+, 0.2 bWAR), -0.2 bWAR for Minnesota. Urshela became a fan-favorite and consistent performer in his year in Minnesota. However, he would have likely been non-tendered in arbitration to prevent a perceived logjam on the Minnesota infield. He played all around the infield and had been moderately productive for the Angels before a broken pelvis ended his season. Hidalgo is still 20 years old and a starter at High-A. 2/5/21: Minnesota acquires Shaun Anderson (8.2 IP, 47 ERA+, -0.5 bWAR) from San Francisco for LaMonte Wade Jr.* (1151 PA, 112 OPS+, 3.9 bWAR), -4.4 bWAR for Minnesota. In retrospect, this was an unforced error. The Twins had two similar options for their fourth outfielder going into 2021—Wade and Jake Cave—and they elected to trade Wade, who, when healthy, has been a consistent presence in the Giants lineup. Cave struggled over his last two years in Minnesota, and Anderson, the AAAA lottery ticket they got for Wade, was out of the organization before the year ended. Total WAR gained: -8.8 bWAR Unfortunately, by WAR, the Twins have given up more than they've brought in in MLB-for-MLB trades. However, there's room for discussion. The team could say that they'd do the Donaldson, Arraez, and Graterol trades, even though they have not shown favorably by WAR, given the context of the trades. I said at the beginning that it's easy to see who wins and loses, but it's a little trickier to contextualize them. What do you think? Do you trust the team to trade away big leaguers again in 2024? View full article

Apparently, the Minnesota Twins clubhouse has a lasting impact on a lot of people. Is there anything special about it? Image courtesy of Sportsnet (screenshot) The American League Wild Card series victory over the Toronto Blue Jays was the pinnacle of the Minnesota Twins season and perhaps the happiest moment in Minnesota sports in nearly two decades. The snapping of the losing streak in Game 1 lifted a huge burden off the backs of every Twins fan. The win in Game 2 put us in nirvana and gave us hope we thought impossible. There was nothing that could spoil that. Not even a little bit. Or was there? Well, kind of. While the players and all fans at Target Field celebrated the Twins’ first postseason series win since 2002, a heartbreaking image went somewhat viral on Twins Twitter. A screenshot taken of the Sportsnet broadcast showed former Twins starter José Berríos watching from Toronto’s dugout as his old Minnesota teammates celebrated: After the game, Berríos was interviewed live from the clubhouse. Some said that he seemed to have been crying. That wouldn’t be surprising at all. He was Toronto’s starter for that game, and he was throwing a great game. He took care of the Twins lineup for three innings on only 39 pitches, allowing only one hit, but striking out five. No walks. But the Blue Jays’ manager, John Schneider, had a plan. When Royce Lewis drew a leadoff walk against Berríos in the fourth, Yusei Kikuchi got the call, and “La Mákina” departed the game at only 47 pitches. The Twins took advantage and managed to score two runs against Kikuchi, which ended up being enough to win the game. Perhaps that was the main reason Berríos looked devastated in the dugout as the Twins celebrated. Maybe he was just gazing at nothing, not actually paying too much attention to all the smiling, jumping, and yelling. Unsurprisingly, his early departure from the game was the main topic of the questions asked to Berríos in the clubhouse. But that gaze from the dugout also came up – as great journalism would require. During the interview, only two questions focused on that last part, but those answers really say something about how Berríos feels about the Twins and Minnesota. He first referenced his old home when he was asked how he felt watching the remainder of the game from the dugout. In listing the reasons why he didn't feel so bad, he mentioned how much he enjoyed being in Minnesota and the atmosphere at Target Field. Then, after quickly answering another question about why he was removed from the game–"Honestly, I don't know," he said–those two aforementioned questions about his old teammates had him reminiscing. Why did you stick around to watch the Twins celebrate afterward? – Because I still have brothers over there. Like I've been saying, besides baseball, I respect people. I take care of people. I've got a few brothers over there. I wanted to say congratulations. The next question made him smile awkwardly, and you could tell he was caught off guard. He didn't have a remotely prepared answer. How hard was that moment to watch? – It was a weird feeling because right now, I'm on this side of the dugout, playing for the Blue Jays. I'm very proud of that, and I give my hundred percent. But at the same time, I used to be in Minnesota. The city watched me grow and reach the big leagues, so it was a weird feeling. Finally, the last question kind of went the other way in the sense that it mentioned something that happened after the game that could've been perceived as... not very nice. But Berríos still managed to pay compliments to his old brothers. In talking to a member of the Minnesota Twins, they said they were pretty happy to see you leave the game. How does that make you feel? – That guy was my first pitching coach in the minor leagues when I signed in 2012, Luis Ramírez. He came to me, said 'congratulations,' and gave me a hug. Then I saw [Jorge] Polanco, one of my teammates from 2012, too. They have good people over there. I have to respect that. I’m not a beat reporter. I’m not at the clubhouse daily – Alanna Rizzo would probably hate me – but doesn’t it feel like the Twins clubhouse is, indeed, special? It’s a big sports cliché to say something like this, but it really feels like it’s true for the Twins. Of course, we’re not talking about something supernatural. It’s all about the people who are there every day. For God’s sake, even when Josh Donaldson was in Minnesota, this clubhouse didn’t seem to have any evident issues. Granted, the Twins have been lucky when encountering legit nice guys to bless the clubhouse environment. Eduardo Escobar was perhaps the greatest. Willians Astudillo seemed to be loved by everyone around him. And talk about Brian Dozier, who seemed never to stop smiling. But maybe that’s just a great positive effect you get when you have so many homegrown players in a big league team. It’s very hard not to create a deep bond with people you’ve lived with since your teenage years and into your late twenties or early thirties. Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco shared a wholesome moment last week to prove that: Luis Arráez is another excellent example. Remember how he used to have inside jokes with Twins beat reporter Dan Hayes? That was so cool. And maybe this is just a personal impression, but didn’t he look a bit gloomy in his first days/weeks with the Marlins? Similar to a kid who’s been forced by their parents to change schools and leave behind his crew? Well, seeing Arráez sad should make every Twins fan sad, too, so thank God he was up and smiling again with his new teammates later in the season. Speaking of Arráez, team photographer Brace Hemmelgarn blessed us when the Twins visited the Marlins earlier this year by capturing this lovely interaction between Arráez and Byron Buxton. To me, that moment screamed, “I miss being with you guys so much!” I have no idea if the Twins clubhouse is more special than any other clubhouse. But the fact is that a lot of people seem to feel really happy there. Some fans may dislike certain front office or coaching staff members for baseball reasons, but it seems unfair to dislike them for any other reason. They seem to have built a great clubhouse culture for the Twins. View full article

Let's start with the obvious: this will be remembered as the Royce Lewis Game. This game has a title. Image courtesy of © Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports And this kid? We keep trying to contextualize what Royce Lewis has done. We keep failing, because we are used to talking about statistics or subtleties. At Twins Daily, we believe in those details. We find beauty there. It's what we fell in love with. It's truth. It's my heart. But you know what else is my heart? The Natural. Maybe the sappiest baseball movie of all time - and that's a high bar, given Field of Dreams. But, also, maybe the most magical baseball movie of all time - and that's a high bar, given Field of Dreams. There is something magi….. no, it's too easy a word. Other-worldly? Pure? I'm struggling with the adjective. Let me try again. There is something inspiring/uplifting/emboldening about seeing somebody do the thing that they were clearly intended to do. Especially when that something was denied them by a career-threatening injury. Then, by the same career-threatening injury. Then, by a goofy injury. Then, a week before the postseason, by another goofy injury. Then? They still do it! Then they do it again! (Then the opposition just kinda decides they want nothing to do with that guy.) It's even better when that person rises above an environment that is just so … toxic. Not even purposely toxic like The Judge or Max Mercy or Memo Paris. But, toxic like they just can't free themselves, like Pop Fisher or Terrance Mann or Annie's brother. An environment that has been around them so long that they see hope as a surrender and victory as an unrealistic sin rather than something right there. And rightly theirs. As a Twins fan who has lived in that environment for 14 years, let me tell you…. I'm sorry, what? Only 14? Did you wonder why I didn't say 19, since the Twins last won a postseason game 19 years ago today? That's because I was at Game 163, another game with a title. I will tell you: last night's crowd was the best I've seen in the history of Target Field. It was the most energetic, most optimistic, most present, most supportive crowd since a dome of Minnesotans willed Bobby Keppel through a scoreless twelfth inning and a win. I want to get back to that, because one particular section of Target Field's crowd deserves a callout, so much so that they've getting one of my four stars of this game, but allow me to skip around a bit and come back to them. I'll tip my hat to conventional internet lists by starting at the end. The #4 star of the game goes to Michael A. Taylor. The Twins' outfield defense was a difference-maker in this game. I could describe Taylor's catches, but I expect you saw them, and if you didn't, I can't do them justice. Plus, again, the fielding details seem to move me away from what was important. The important part was that Taylor's glove snuffed out any spark of hope. Twice. And then a couple times more just to let the Blue Jays know that there was a No Oxygen Zone covering about 30% of the available turf to which they could hit the ball. Am I overstating that? Just ask the Blue Jays fans around you in Target Field about him. They will tell you: they really hate that guy. He couldn't get a better endorsement. Jumping ahead to the #2 star: Pablo Lopez, who was the perfect choice for Game 1. He was determined to set the tone, and not just on the field. Was it important that he showed up to the game wearing a Johan Santana jersey? Of course nawwwwww….. You know what? Yes. Yes, it was. Not because he idolizes his fellow Venezuelan, Santana. Not because Santana was the last Twins pitcher to win a postseason game 19 years ago. But because Lopez was putting a stake in the ground. Don't think so? Imagine the narratives he (and we) would have endured - especially from those fans bitter about losing Luis Arraez - if the Twins lost. If that little gesture backfired? Instead, he set expectations. Then he exceeded them. I suppose critics (trolls?) will dismiss "only" 5 2/3 innings. Those critics (trolls) should carry 19 years worth of postseason defeats on their back for 93 pitches, and then get back to me. Back to the #3 star: Target Field's crowd, and specifically, the entire left field lower level bleachers. The “GAAAUUUSS-MAAANNNNN” chants? That was them. The “JOOOOR-DAAAAN” chants? That was them. Standing and cheering on every two-strike pitch? They led that. They were passionate. Organized. Knowledgeable. Maybe a touch insane. Watching them infect the stadium down the arterial third base line was…. Inspiring. Uplifting. Emboldening. The same adjectives I settled on for Lewis' performance. Honestly, it might have been my favorite part of the night, even more so than winning. The whole crowd last night was incredible. I am convinced they helped Lopez though the fifth. Griffin Jax was a different pitcher in the eighth when they got behind him. They reassured Jhoan Duran. They pestered pitchers into walks and bad counts. The Blue Jays' dugout felt the malevolence. The crowd tonight created a home field advantage I haven't felt in Minnesota since the claustrophobic Metrodome. I'm legitimately a little baffled where it came from. It didn't come from the lead; the crowd was like that from the first pitch. Was it from nearly 20 years of frustration? Was it from facing the Blue Jays? Having veterans like Carlos Correa? The youth? Or was it having faith in players that could rise to the occasion, like…. Our #1 star: Royce Lewis. OK, let's use the word. Sure, it was magical. But there is a place beyond magical, where you expect the magic to happen. That's what I saw tonight. Eyes opened wide at that first home run, but it was followed by knowing looks. Heads shook back and forth incredulously at the second home run, but it was followed by the Michael Jordan shoulder shrug. I saw it. In the stands. In the dugout. Maybe you saw it or felt it, too, wherever you were. We're probing a different level, as a team, as fans, as people. It made for a helluva night, a night worthy of a title. But for now, it doesn't mean anything more than the end of a crummy streak and a one-game lead. Plus, the job is getting harder, because the Jays also watched Lewis' performance up close. With Lewis clearly having a bum hamstring, they pivoted in his third at-bat. They aren't going to give him a pitch that allows him to trot around the bases. They'll let him walk to first, but he's going to need to run (as best he can) the rest of the way. Which means tomorrow's stars will likely need to be awarded to different players. I believe the Twins will find them. After all, if, before tonight, you believed that 0-18 despair would lead to more losses, must you also not believe the other side of the coin? That streak-breaking magic is contagious? After tonight, how can you not? View full article

The Minnesota Twins front office has not been shy about upgrading the 26-man roster. Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have been aggressive in their pursuit of free agents, and they have made several sizable swaps in recent seasons. Now nearly a full season into the deal that brought Pablo Lopez to Minnesota, do the Twins miss Luis Arraez? Image courtesy of Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports When the Minnesota Twins decided to send Luis Arraez to the Miami Marlins it was not because they thought that Rocco Baldelli’s lineup couldn’t use him. The Twins second baseman was a fan-favorite, and he was coming off winning an American League batting title. Despite looking like the second coming of Rod Carew, questions about defense and health tipped the scales just enough for the front office to dangle him out there. A deal between the Marlins and Twins came together over quite some time, and the sides talked about different constructions of a fit for a while. With the Twins offense seemingly in a good place, the front office decided that Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, and Kenta Maeda needed some help in the starting rotation. Pablo Lopez was viewed as a talent that had projectable upside, and the organization doubled-down by signing him to a four-year extension that kicks in during the 2024 season. So far it’s hard to say that the sides didn’t get exactly what they were looking for. Miami is watching Arraez trend towards another batting title while having been named an All-Star for the second consecutive season, and the Twins are seeing Lopez pitch like something of a Cy Young candidate. Rather than view the deal just through the lens of a Minnesota trade though, I wanted to get a Marlins perspective. Ely Sussman of Fish on First covers Miami closely, and had plenty of thoughts to share about the new Marlins infielder. Twins Daily: Having watched Arraez for a full season, what are your thoughts on him as a player and how do they compare to what you believed you were getting? Ely Sussman: I was optimistic about Arraez continuing to be more or less the same player he had been with the Twins, and he has instead elevated his game a notch. I was concerned about his durability given his history of knee issues, but he's been available for the Marlins practically every day. Although his defensive metrics at second base have been a mixed bag, I have observed something close to league-average performance from him there. Arraez has shown good hands and a knack for making accurate, off-balance throws when necessary. Last but not least, he is very well-liked by his Marlins teammates and proactive about sharing advice with them. He has helped change the clubhouse chemistry for the better, which was sorely needed after losing 93 games the season before. TD: Moving Jazz Chisholm to centerfield was part of the Arraez acquisition. How has the Marlins defense benefitted or been hurt by the new construction? ES: Outside of a few April bloopers, Chisholm's transition to center field has been a success. He's been enough of an upgrade over Miami's 2022 centerfield options to mostly offset the drop-off in defense from Chisholm to Arraez at second base. However, the addition of Arraez also stranded free agent signing Jean Segura at third base, where he had limited experience. That went horribly and may have contributed to his struggles at the plate. Segura was among the worst everyday players in the majors before the Marlins dumped him at the trade deadline. Overall, the Marlins have been in the middle of the pack defensively, which is slightly worse than 2022, but that step back is due to other personnel changes rather than Arraez. TD: Arraez brought a few years of team control with him to Miami whereas the Twins immediately extended Pablo Lopez. Do you see a longer term deal getting done with the Marlins? ES: When Arraez was hitting .400-something throughout much of the first half, there was concern that he had played himself out of the Marlins' price range! The silver lining of his second-half regression is he now seems more realistically extendable for them. It is tricky to find relevant comps for Arraez given his old-school batted ball profile, but I estimate that the average annual value of an extension would be less than Pablo's $18.4 million. Perhaps a DJ LeMahieu-like deal (6/$90M) would get it done. There is a good chance of Arraez being signed long term, especially if Jorge Soler departs via free agency and vacates the designated hitter spot. TD: Year one has included a second straight All-Star appearance and Arraez is trending toward another batting title. Has the production been better than expected? ES: His production has exceeded expectations, yes. Even with MLB's restriction of the infield shift, it's astounding to see somebody hitting in the mid-.300s and consistently coming through in late-game situations, too. There are still things to nitpick about Arraez like his occasional over-aggressiveness, his inability to steal bases, and the frequency with which he grounds into double plays. But he is very valuable just as he is. TD: Missing Lopez in the rotation, has the presence of a missing starter been felt? Has Arraez's production in the lineup made that worth it? ES: López has been sorely missed. Sandy Alcantara's fall from Cy Young winner to ordinary innings eater has been well-documented. Also, the Marlins entered the season with both Johnny Cueto and Trevor Rogers in their starting rotation. Not only did they both suffer injuries in April, but then suffered additional, unrelated injuries while pitching in minor league rehab games. Cueto didn't return until the All-Star break and Rogers still hasn't made it back. The Marlins were relatively thin on upper-minors rotation depth and that was exposed by those unlucky breaks. I would still say that Arraez has made up for the absence of López. Miami's bullpen has thrived in clutch situations to cover up for some of the rotation's limitations. TD: Simply, would you do the deal again, why or why not? ES: It's a fascinating "what if" because it depends on whether I am tethered to Bruce Sherman's modest budget. The main reason that the Marlins shopped López is because of how his future salary would impact their flexibility to address other roster needs, rooted in ownership's lack of willingness to spend. This club understandably prioritizes veteran hitters over veteran pitchers because they've had much more success developing cheap pitching internally. An aspect of the trade that I strongly disliked was the inclusion of prospects Jose Salas and Byron Chourio. Salas was one of the few Marlins hitting prospects who had a path toward becoming a big league regular, but it turns out that his 2023 campaign was a nightmare, making that ceiling seem less attainable. If I'm stuck living in a universe where the Marlins operate with a small-market mentality, I would do the deal again. If I have the freedom to imagine the Marlins spending as much as the Twins do on payroll, then I would have kept and extended López and upgraded the lineup by shopping younger arms instead. It’s interesting to see what the other side thinks, because even with Lopez’s performance, there are plenty of Twins fans that still miss Arraez. Even with the emergence of Edouard Julien, the Twins lack a true average hitter and Arraez had the ability to set the table on a nightly basis. What is your takeaway from this deal? Would you still make the trade? How have you felt about Pablo in year one? View full article

Thursday brought about a bittersweet moment that Twins fans can celebrate for a fan favorite of the last five years. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol, USA Today Sports On November 18, 2022, then Twins first baseman Luis Arraez had a lot to smile about. He was coming off his first all-star season, won the American League Batting title, and was one of five players strutting down the stage in the Mall of America's rotunda in one of the Twins new uniforms. That day, Arraez was the first Twin to wear their new road gray uniforms. They gave him a spark of tenacity for what the Twins could do with them in the 2023 season. "This is amazing, I can't wait to wear this uniform," Arraez said on that Friday. "This one [the gray road uniform] is my favorite. I feel like we can score 10 runs each day with these." Arraez didn't get to wear these at all with the Twins in 2023 as he was traded on January 20, 2023, to the Miami Marlins for starting pitcher Pablo Lopez and two prospects. Tracking back to that frigid fall morning, Arraez talked about what he did to celebrate his recently won 2022 American League Batting Title, which he won with a .316 average. "I celebrated with my wife and two daughters and my friends down in Ft. Myers. But I got to go to Venezuela and celebrate with my mom, my dad, and my family there in Venezuela," he said. Soon after, Arraez was asked if his parents had ever seen him play in the Majors. He said no. "It's hard. It's hard for them to get a visa. I try hard for them to come and visit me in Minnesota and see me play." While his parents never got the chance to see him play as a member of the Minnesota Twins. The dream finally came true for Arraez on Thursday afternoon. The Miami Marlins, with the help of the U.S. State Department and MLB International, flew Ernesto and Mari Arraez to Miami so they could see their son play a game in Major League Baseball for the first time. Arraez has always been known as a family man. He's worked hard to get where he's at in the majors and become a hitter of a past era when all he does is hit for contact. Going into the Marlins final home series against the Milwaukee Brewers on Friday, Arraez leads the Majors with a .354 average. He is fighting to be the first player in the Majors with a batting average above .350 in a full 162 game season since Josh Hamilton hit .359 in 2010. Finishing that pursuit of a second batting title, that could very well be his first in the National League in addition to posting the best average in MLB this season. It's been 10 months since Arraez shared how badly he wanted to visit them to celebrate winning his first batting title. Now his mom and dad will be front row to see his the final games of his purist to win another. Arraez Soundbite on his folks.mp3 View full article

When the Minnesota Twins contemplated acquiring pitching this offseason, they knew that grabbing a solid arm was going to require giving up a key piece. That wound up being starting second baseman Luis Arraez. Edouard Julien waiting in the wings made that easier to manage. Image courtesy of Matt Blewett-USA TODAY Sports The Twins sent Edouard Julien to the Arizona Fall League in 2022 with hopes of testing him against heightened competition. He responded by batting .400/.563/.686 with five home runs. Putting up a strong showing to start the season for Triple-A St. Paul, Julien earned his way to Minnesota when Jorge Polanco went down with an injury. After continuing to swing a hot bat, and getting on base at an exceptional clip, there was no way Minnesota was going to send their rookie back down. Having taken over the starting second baseman position that was once held down by Luis Arraez, the Twins were faced with plenty of similarities between the two players. It was never a question as to whether Arraez had talent. You’d never be able to net a top-tier starting pitcher like Pablo Lopez for his services if he wasn’t. The knock on Arraez was always his defense, and a lack of durability that sapped his availability. Over the past two seasons, Rocco Baldelli watched Arraez bow out as the year went on due to his balky knees. That may have also been what limited his effectiveness defensively. When promoted to the majors, it was obvious that Julien was a butcher with the glove, and could make a meal out of even the most routine ground ball. Similar to the guy he replaced, the bat was more than capable of playing, but the glove left so much to be desired. Fast forward a few months and we’re seeing development take place right before our eyes. Coming into the year it was evident the goal for Minnesota was going to be an ability to pitch and field. With Lopez acquired, and Sonny Gray returning, the depth on the mound represented one of the better pitching staffs across all of baseball. Being able to successfully field behind them, the front office envisioned a roster that wouldn’t need to put up gaudy run totals to win on a nightly basis. Had Julien continued to struggle to make defensive adjustments, he may have found his roster spot in jeopardy. While the Twins are certainly encouraged by his production, and needed every bit of it while the lineup slumped through much of the year, failing to be playable defensively wasn’t an option. Now with Polanco back and options available to them, Julien has still commanded starts. It’s not as though Julien wasn’t working on his craft while on the farm or with the Saints. However, as he has settled in to the surface at Target Field and continued to work with the Minnesota coaching staff, he has gotten significantly better as the season went on. The Twins never saw that take place with Arraez, and unfortunately his body didn’t position him with an opportunity for consistent health either. The hope would be that Julien can continue to make offensive adjustments for the Twins as he sees pitchers more throughout his career. Defensive development will need to continue as well, but the early returns should be encouraging for everyone involved. For a player that had a questionable ability to maintain a defensive spot, to now being the best version we have seen, the tireless work can’t be overlooked. I don’t think we’ll see Julien trending toward a Gold Glove award any time soon, but this revelation may be the next best thing. View full article

Luis Arraez has had a tremendous season, likely earning the title of Twins MVP so far. He looked to be on track for a career year through the end of July, but then came a confusing August. What went wrong for the Twins leadoff man in the dog days of summer? In case you haven’t heard, Luis Arraez is an incredible hitter. In the era of trying to do as much damage as possible on every swing, Arraez waits out opposing pitchers and is just as happy to take a walk or squeak an opposite-field grounder through the hole as he is to drive the ball over the fence. In addition to how fun it is to watch his unique style, Arraez is also quite good. He’s been an above-average hitter by wRC+ in every month of 2022, which makes an August slump hard to complain too much about. Make no mistake, however, Arraez has hit a skid over the last month. What could be the cause? .269/.316/.394, a .710 OPS for Arraez in August. While still 4% above a league-average hitter in that time, it’s a far cry from the .338/.411/.445 line he posted in the first four months. Hitters slump, and oftentimes those slumps look a lot worse than what Arraez has done in August. Still, it’s worth exploring what could be going on. There have been a few narratives floated about Arraez’s struggles. The first of which has been an increase in fly balls, perhaps in pursuit of more power from the Twins leadoff man. Looking back, it’s easy to remember several lazy fly balls Arraez has produced. His 25.7% flyball rate in August is perfectly acceptable and is lower than the rate he produced in April and July in which he posted a .783 and .817 OPS respectively. The second has been a decline in the quality of his at-bats, particularly an increase in chase rate. Again, this mark has not seen a spike, and saw a decrease from July. And so it’s time to explore the simplest explanation for the decline in Arraez’s struggles: Impacting the baseball. His struggles are actually quite simple and yet very complicated. Arraez simply isn’t hitting the ball as hard. For the last three seasons, Arraez’s hard hit rate hovered just above 30% for reference. In August, he posted a 20.8% mark. While this explains his struggles, the complicated question becomes why. Of course all players are entitled to slumps, including the hitting machine Luis Arraez. It’s entirely possible that the calendar turns to September, and he’s exactly the same hitter he was for the first four months. That being said, it’s something to keep an eye on. Arraez suffered from what could be considered chronic knee issues every year of his career thus far… except for 2022. He famously spent last offseason working out with Nelson Cruz to strengthen his ailing knees and it’s hard to argue the results so far. That being said, Arraez is five games from tying his career high in games played with over a month left. He also hasn’t had any IL trips along the way to catch a breather and has nearly been an everyday player as we head into September. There’s no way to know for certain, but hopefully, his recent performance isn’t a result of his knees or any other nagging injury. If I had to guess, I think Arraez finds his way back to being tremendously productive in the batter's box in September. He’s a smart hitter who can likely find a way to adjust his approach to still succeed even if he can’t get his higher exit velocities to fully return. For a hitter who hits a noticeable skid and still posts an above-average batting line, it’s hard to be too concerned moving forward. Do you agree? View full article

Joyless Hopkins man wants to remind you about a couple things. Image courtesy of Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports Twins starting pitcher Pablo Lopez was dialed in on Wednesday night, striking out 12 and allowing four meager hits in a complete game, 100-pitch shutout victory. Lifelong Twins fan Ethan Sudbury couldn’t be angrier. “It was against the Royals,” he said friendlessly. “How did it take him 100 pitches to do that? A true ace could do that in 85-90, tops.” The decisive 5-0 win over Kansas City featured one of the best performances by a Minnesota pitcher in recent memory. But the sad Hopkins man wants you to know how costly it was. “We traded a .400 hitter for a guy who is .500 at the All-Star Break,” said Sudbury, who has a face you dream about punching. “We have a quote-unquote ace with an ERA barely under 4. That’s why he’s staying home next week and Arraez is going to Seattle.” The Twins acquired Lopez from the Miami Marlins for 2023 All-Star Luis Arraez. Beloved by fans, Arraez has flirted with .400 most of the season, with a minor recent slump sending him into the .380s. As noted by the dreary Sudbury, Arraez is going to the All-Star Game in Seattle while Lopez is staying home with a 5-5 record and a 3.89 ERA, although his advanced stats show that he’s been much better than those numbers indicate. The impossibly lonely Sudbury asks that you ignore them. “The Twins traded an All-Star second baseman for a middle-of-the-rotation guy,” said the 24-year-old systems analyst. “Their current second baseman is a Canadian who can’t play defense. I will die on this hill alone if I have to.” Sudbury’s family confirms he is single and would in fact die alone on that hill or anywhere else. “He’s deeply unpleasant,” said Amy Sudbury, Ethan’s disappointed mother. “He gets that from his father.” View full article

Swinging hard in baseball was invented by Mel Gibson in 2001 for the movie “Signs.” From that point forward, hitters kept swinging harder while in many cases adding steroids to the mix, resulting in more power across the league. Guys who were teetering on the brink of being labeled “Quad-A Guys,” suddenly realized if they could add 20 home run power to their repertoire, they could cover up all their other glaring flaws. In 2019, a juiced ball turbocharged this trend and not coincidentally that year’s Twins team set the all-time team home run record, featuring big contributions from previously unexciting players like CJ Cron, Max Kepler, Jonathan Schoop and Mitch Garver. After a 101 win season and the surprising addition of Josh Donaldson, the future seemed bright for the Twins lineup. Instead, the team has taken steps backward and now looks as dysfunctional as ever offensively, despite the track record of their hitters being quite good on paper. What happened? To start, the Twins aren’t the only team with a lot of names in their lineup and not a lot of runs on the board. Many teams who employ a multitude of high power hitters with great backsides to their baseball cards, are finding that their performance is suffering. The Yankees have a decent record, but the vibe around them is not positive, with their hitting underwhelming despite employing many successful sluggers like Aaron Judge, Anthony Rizzo, Giancarlo Stanton and Gleyber Torres. The Padres are at the bottom of the league in offense despite boasting four potential MVP candidates in their lineup, most of whom can do more than just slug. The Mets are struggling mightily despite Pete Alonso pacing the sport in homers, Francisco Lindor hitting the ball as hard as ever, and Francisco Alvarez breaking through offensively. The issue is how hard the guys are swinging. And no I’m not saying that swinging a bat is putting undue strain on these precious hitters. I’m saying you need a mix of efforts in terms of swing speed/length of swing, and the Twins have too many guys selling out for power, especially in key situations that require a base hit. I’ve categorized it that there are three types of hitters based on how hard they swing: Knock-getters: Think Luis Arraez, Rod Carew, and maybe Royce Lewis (more on that later). They’ll take a few rips to keep pitchers honest but really they're just trying to get a hit somehow. Slashers: Think Yuli Gurriel or Paul O’Neil. They’ll run into plenty of homers, but mainly they are just trying to get the barrel on the ball. My theory is that medium swingers go into the biggest slumps, perhaps due to oscillations in what “medium swinging” means for a hitter, but can often spark a team in the postseason. Boppers: Think Joey Gallo or Jim Thome. They want to lift at all times, and swing as hard as they reasonably can. The most rigid approach, and most dependent on mistakes. It also includes most of the current Twins lineup. It may seem like I am denigrating the power guys like any old baseball analyst from the 1930’s, but what I’m really saying is you can’t have too many of the same type of hitter on your team. As the Padres have shown, you can have four .900 OPS guys in your lineup and still struggle to score. If all you have is knock-getters you end up like the Cleveland Guardians, which isn’t very effective, either. It would seem that a team made up of slashers, or medium swingers, would be great, but I swear they’re streakier, and not always the best defenders. But a team full of boppers has all the makings of a heartbreaking team. They are scary to face as a pitcher, but importantly, they can be pitched to. For instance, any pitcher knows the game plan on how to get Joey Gallo out: high fastballs and breaking balls below the zone. If you execute that plan Gallo almost certainly will not hurt you; at worst you’ll walk him. A knock-getter, by contrast, can take a pitch you executed well and plop it the other way for a single. Not always, but at a far higher success rate than Gallo just accepting his fate with two strikes. Logically, a shorter, easier swing is easier to control, less deceived by velocity, and easier to pull back on if the pitch is a ball. I don’t think you’ll find a hitter who disagrees with that. And admit it, when Joey Gallo or Byron Buxton come to the plate with a man on second and two outs down a run, it burns you up because you know you would rather have Christian Vazquez hit in that situation, despite his poor overall numbers. It’s like a really physical basketball team with an elite big man. You can counter that team by putting a bunch of quick shooters all around the perimeter and forcing the big to come out and defend, negating his overall impact. He’s still really good, yet his existence is hurting the team. Or it's like a golfer who hits it further than anyone else but is playing a course with tiny fairways and deep rough. He has less margin for error than shorter hitters and his advantage is turned into a weakness. Or a male pickup artist looking to meet women at a lesbian bar. From a baseball strategy standpoint too, having a bunch of slower/shorter-swinging guys can make the opposing pitcher less of a factor. And if you’re facing Gerrit Cole or Shohei Ohtani with your season on the line, you want them to matter as little as possible. Elite pitchers, the kind you often see in the postseason, probably won’t make many mistakes during a game. The beautiful part is, if you’re a good knock-getter, you don’t need them to make any mistakes. You’ve accepted you can’t get a homer without several stars aligning, so you try to guess a location and punch the ball through somewhere. You can’t win the war with one swing, but you can pile up wins in individual battles and accomplish the same thing. That is still hard to do, but not as hard as trying to homer off of an elite pitcher who isn’t making mistakes. After Sunday’s game, Royce Lewis was interviewed and he mentioned that the Tigers approach to Twins’ hitters was to exploit that they were waiting for a mistake. He also said he personally went against that approach by selling out for contact during the game, during which he collected three singles. That was eye-opening because it confirmed what a lot of us fans have witnessed during the Falvey/Baldelli era: Swinging for the fences regardless of situation and hoping for a mistake pitch, resulting in failing to score in too many innings, and falling short offensively even if the total season output was highly ranked. On that note, the Firejoemorgan.com site of the early aughts was a favorite of mine, and one of Morgan’s most mocked beliefs was that sometimes home run hitters could be selfish. “What a load,” we said, “as if hitting a home run was something to be shamed for when it is statistically the best thing you can do as a hitter.” Except most of the time guys try to hit home runs, they don’t. The best home run hitters get a dinger every ten to twelve at-bats, a hugely valuable ratio, no doubt. But it’s easier to make contact if you’re just trying to get a knock, and if that’s what the situation dictates, then yes, trying to hit a home run is selfish, because of the home runs you don’t hit. If you know that a given pitcher is going to start you with a breaking ball outside, and you have the ability to poke a ball the other way, it is your job to ambush that pitcher and get a knock. Good pitchers give up home runs, but good pitches don’t (unless the hitter guesses perfectly), and that’s an important distinction. Sometimes you don’t get the cement mixer breaking ball of your dreams, and already this year, we have seen the reverse approach work against the best of the Twins’ excellent rotation: Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez and Bailey Ober have all been victimized by bloop hits and squibbers the other way, often off of good pitches, and those hits have led to key losses against division rivals Cleveland and Detroit, not to mention the Angels, Red Sox, and Rays. Getting rid of Luis Arraez is then so much more of a blunder by the Twins. He wasn’t just a knock-getter, he was the knock-getter, and the Twins haven’t really had anybody else in recent years who could grind at-bats and was willing to sacrifice almost all his potential power for base hits like Arraez. Lewis has shown this ability at times, notably against Ryan Pressly of the Astros the day he was called up, also mentioning after Sunday’s win that he was trying to channel his “inner-Arraez.” Which brings me to Austin Martin. He recently returned to action after missing three weeks following a collision in one of his first games back from a sprained UCL in his elbow. That's a real shame because Martin is an up and coming knock-getter, and to hear him tell it, his failed experiment with adding power to his profile in 2022 just made him more committed to selling out for base hits and getting on base no matter what. Putting him in left field, if he’s healthy enough to play, might be the best recreation of Arraez the Twins can do at this point. And they’ll need him if what Lewis says about the hitting approach is true. If the team is truly gameplanning, or being gameplanned against, by virtue of its hitters trying to stay in at-bats until the pitcher makes a mistake, that’s a problem. It also matches the eye-test of watching this team. Sometimes pitchers don’t make mistakes, and sometimes when they do, you miss them (we’ve seen plenty of that). Whoever is advocating for that approach is stuck in 2019 and though Lewis surely didn’t mean to stir the pot with his comment, his saying it gives me hope that he may inspire others on the team to follow his lead and sell out for contact when appropriate. The vanishing act this offense has shown since the 2019 postseason is no longer a coincidence, it's a trait, and their league-high strikeout rate confirms it. Furthermore, against better pitching overall, with less power and a less juicy ball, that trait is dooming this team to fail despite an incredible (for the Twins) pitching staff. Gallo and Buxton will continue to swing away no matter what, but everyone else needs to realize what’s been right in front of them (by watching their opposition), and to give up a little power for contact. Not always, just when it matters.

In what was primarily deemed at the time as a "win" of a trade for the hometown nine, the Pablo López (plus two prospects) swap for Luis Arraez is creating sharp twangs of angst across Twins territory. The 26-year-old hitting maestro is heading to his second straight All-Star Game while the Twins continue to middle away into despair. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Every offseason, Derek Falvey and Thad Levine have specifically and aggressively targeted the areas that stopped them short of a run in the playoffs in the prior year. After the Twins hit a record number of home runs (307) and won 101 games in 2019, the front office made a run at Zach Wheeler to add a much-needed frontline starter. They lost the bidding to Philadelphia and instead flipped Brusdar Graterol in a trade for Kenta Maeda, who subsequently finished second for the American League Cy Young Award. They also added Josh Donaldson on a team-record free agent contract, shifting Miguel Sanó to first base to prevent more runs. The plan worked. The team pitched very well in the Covid-plagued 2020 campaign, riding Maeda, José Berríos, Randy Dobnak, and a stalwart bullpen to the playoffs. Jorge Polanco's inexcusable error in game two of the Wild Card Series prompted the next volcanic shift. The Twins signed Andrelton Simmons, moved Polanco to second base, and hoped they'd checked the last box. After a complete disaster in 2021, the Twins added a premium player in Carlos Correa, traded for Sonny Gray, and extended Byron Buxton, among many other moves. The rotation broke down throughout the summer as Dylan Bundy and Chris Archer predictably faded following stellar starts. Falvey and Levine noticed… to say the least. The Twins traded one of their best players, the reigning American League batting champion and a fan favorite, to add more quality depth to the rotation that failed them. It seems they went too far. Entering play Thursday, Arraez would lead all qualified Twins in batting average (duh), on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and b-Wins Above Replacement. It was an extreme but reasonable move in the moment. The Twins couldn't rely on Maeda, Tyler Mahle, or Bailey Ober for a high volume of innings. In the case of Maeda and Mahle, that proved overwhelmingly valid. While López has pitched much better than his ERA suggests, the Twins misjudged the overall impact of losing Arraez. Fans have longed for a rotation loaded with playoff-caliber starters. It's finally here, but at what cost? Multiple things can be true. Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton have been legitimately bad, keeping the Twins from consistency. José Miranda is at Triple-A after a horrendous start. Jorge Polanco has played only 30 games due to various leg injuries. Arraez can't make up for that lack of production. However, the Twins' spark plug brought immense energy and an elite ability to put bat to ball. This club is asleep at the wheel, aimlessly whiffing and whiffing en route to an MLB-record number of strikeouts. The argument that Arraez couldn't help much because the Twins wouldn't drive him in ignores Arraez as a run producer himself. Arraez would not only lead the Twins in RBI but also doubles. Don't get it twisted; they massively miss his bat, especially in a slew of spots where just a harmless fly ball to left or a grounder to second would do the trick. This offense is so one-dimensional, so prone to strikeouts, that the thought of adding back Luis Arraez is like seeing a glass of water after months in a scorching desert. Arraez is the anti-Twin in 2023, and it's painful, especially considering how likable Arraez has been since his debut in 2019. The Twins took a gamble they could make up for his loss, and so far it's been sobering. Several past moves are haunting the Twins in 2023. Time will tell, especially considering Pablo López is only 27 years old and under team control through 2027. The Twins may come out on top when all is said and done. For now, though, it's flopping ruinously in a year where the front office desperately needs results. View full article

The Twins traded for Pablo Lopez this winter to add rotational depth. Luis Arraez has flourished in Miami, so how much value has each player provided to their new team? Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Minnesota and Miami seemed like ideal trade partners this winter. The Twins wanted more starting pitching depth, an area of surplus for Miami. The Marlins wanted hitters, an area of surplus for the Twins. Rumors swirled for weeks leading up to the trade, but it seemed like Pablo Lopez and Luis Arraez would be swapping teams before the season began. Pablo Lopez's 2023 Value Lopez started strongly in the season's first month. He built off a strong spring training, and the Twins named him the team's Opening Day starter. He posted a 4.00 ERA in six starts with a 1.11 WHIP and 11.5 K/9. The Twins liked what they saw from Lopez and announced they signed him to a four-year, $73.5 million extension. He will be part of Minnesota's rotation for the foreseeable future, but that future value wasn't part of the initial trade. The first two years of Lopez's team control were part of the equation, and his performance has struggled in recent weeks. Things have gone less smoothly for Lopez after the calendar turned to May. Over his last six starts, he has posted a 5.09 ERA while allowing seven home runs in 35 1/3 innings. Baseball-Reference pegs him at 0.7 WAR, while FanGraphs values him at 1.2 WAR. Those totals are adequate, but they don't paint a complete picture of the value Lopez has provided the Twins. He currently ranks ninth among Twins pitchers with a 0.05 WPA. His ERA+ is below 100 for the first time since 2019, and he has the highest home run rate of his career. Luis Arraez's 2023 Value The Twins knew what kind of player Arraez was when they traded him away. He is an elite contact hitter with limited defensive skills. Arraez has also missed time in recent years because of knee injuries. He was coming off an All-Star season where he won the AL batting title. The Twins saw plenty of value in Arraez, but it might have been hard to predict his 2023 totals. Through 57 games, he is hitting .401/.451/.495 (.946) with 17 extra-base hits and an 11-to-19 strikeout-to-walk ratio. He leads the NL in multiple categories including batting average, OBP, hits, and OPB+. Baseball-Reference values him at a 2.9 WAR, and FanGraphs pegs him at 2.0 WAR with a 0.25 WPA. Only four NL players rank higher than him in rWAR, and he's over 70 points up in the batting race. As expected, he's been worth negative value defensively, but his offensive value has been off the charts. Other Value from Trade Pieces Arraez had one more year of team control than Lopez at the time of the trade, so Miami included two prospects to balance the trade value. Jose Salas was one of the top-ranked position players in the Marlins organization, but he had yet to play a game above High-A. Byron Chourio was 17 at the time of the deal and had minimal professional experience since the Marlins signed him. Both players are a long way from Target Field, and it will be multiple seasons before the Twins will know what kind of value they will provide to the organization. Salas played 48 games in the Midwest League during the 2022 season when he was 19 years old. The Twins sent him back to the same league for the 2023 campaign, and he has struggled out of the gate. In 43 games, he has hit .160/.237/.220 (.457) with six doubles and one home run. Salas has yet to face a pitcher younger than himself this season, so some struggles are expected for a young player. Chourio played the 2022 season in the Dominican Summer League (.838 OPS in 53 games) and has made his stateside debut in the Twins system earlier this week.. Arraez is under team control for two more seasons, and plenty of Twins fans will look back on the trade with regret. He is a throwback-style hitter to a bygone era that all fans can find reasons to support. The Twins and Lopez are tied together for the long term, and both sides need to figure out a way to get him back on track. Both players have a chance to provide tremendous value to their clubs, but the early months of the trade don't look great from the Twins' perspective. Which player will provide more value to their club in the long term? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. View full article

Although still an early season, fans might be curious to see how and where some recent Twins are finding themselves for this new season. Here’s some of the stories worth tracking. Image courtesy of Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports Luis Arraez Crushing in Miami Obviously Twins fans seeing a lack of hits so far this season might feel frustrated to have loss Luis Arraez, even if Pablo Lopez has more than out performed his potential so far. And yet, few should be surprised to see Arraez back again at the top of the batting leaderboard. He is once again defying three true outcomes with a dominant slash line of .438/.493/.578. And despite being player rarely known for power, he has smashed a slew of extra base hits to make him in the Top 3 in OPS for qualified batters. Many of those came earlier this week when he hit the first ever cycle in Marlins history against the Philadelphia Phillies. So far, Arraez is actually increasing his plate discipline, swinging at 8% less pitches outside the zone. Not to mention, the drip has certainly improved. Archer and Pineda On the Cusp of Security While not every player will see their career develop as they should, the recent fights for minor league unionization is a reminder that every player deserve security when the day comes to hang up the glove and stow away the bat. Two former Twins pitchers are stuck on the cusp of that security: Chris Archer and Michael Pineda. Both remain unsigned after disappointing years (Pineda played with the Tigers with a 5.79 ERA), but only need a handful of days to ensure their ten year service. The difference of making it is huge—particularly guaranteed pension and retirement. Even for players who have invested their earnings intelligently, the ten year mark is also one of respect. Obviously this early in the season, most teams may be looking to win than make room on a roster, but hopefully some mid-season teams with some injuries may take a flyer on these guys and get them to their deserved career milestones. Sánchez A Likely Giant This Year Gary Sánchez remained something of an enigma in his one year with the Twins: though his defensive statistics notably improved during his year, full-time catching duties did little to suit him. More so, it became notable how effuse pitchers were in their praise for trade deadline replacement Sandy Leon, suggesting some animosity toward Sánchez's ability to call the game. The former Yankee-turned-Twin went unsigned all offseason where he played in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic. However, earlier this month he signed a minor league deal with the San Francisco Giants. Sánchez is still considered in ramp up mode to ensure he's in good shape, but it is more than likely he'll soon make an appearance. The Giants called up Austin Wynns as a back up after a the season-ending injury of Roberto Pérez while Joey Bart was on the IL. Bart is back now, but Wynns has taken a major league deal with the Dodgers, making Sanchez officially the #3 man after Bart and Blake Sabol. Talking to Susan Slusser for the San Francisco Chronicle, Sánchez explained his hopes for a bounce back. “I think what happens is that a lot of people tend to just remember what I’ve done in the past, and I do agree that I had issues defensively. “However, they don’t look at what I’ve done in the last couple of years.” Cave Adds to the Vibes Jake Cave accepted a minor-league deal last year with the Twins before becoming a key reinforcement for a sinking ship in the final months of the season. Cave still remained an underperformer, but became a particularly clutch hitter in the stretch. The center fielder remains one of the most essential defenders in the league, however, and quickly found a place on the World Series runner up Phillies. As has been well reported, the Phillies perhaps leaned too much into building their 2022 team through players best suited to the DH, and Cave (along with trade deadline pickup and designated Wet Guy Brandon Marsh) has fit snuggly into a platoon position. Cave's hitting has not exactly picked up—save for a surprising dinger off Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara—but Cave will likely continue to fit into a team built entirely on vibes. Sanó Still an Unknown Though his 2022 season did not go as planned, I doubt that even Twins fans expected that no team would take a look at signing former first baseman Miguel Sanó. The Twins made their parting when they opted for Sanó’s equivalent in Joey Gallo, but surely other teams could have used a strong bat with the kind of power he can deliver. Sanó has had an odd off season. He held a workout in February for teams though to little fanfare. More so, Sanó’s father was murdered in the Dominican Republic that same month, though the two were not close. Some have circulated that Sano might find a place on the Phillies given they are down both Rhys Hoskins and Derrick Hall. View full article

The Minnesota Twins made a tough decision when moving on from a fan favorite and a reigning batting champion this offseason. They did so hoping to be adding another strong arm to their starting rotation, and early returns suggest both sides may benefit. Image courtesy of © Jim Rassol-USA TODAY Sports It was never going to be well received when the Twins front office decided to ship Luis Arraez down to Miami. What could soften the blow was a level of production from the incoming Pablo Lopez. Arraez is off to a hot start for the Marlins, but Lopez who started on Opening Day, has equally been on fire. Lopez came to the Twins with two years left under team control. Since 2022, the former Miami righty owned a 3.52 ERA and was as consistent as you could hope on a nightly basis. Although he has never garnered Cy Young attention like former teammate Sandy Alcantara, Lopez has flashed elite stuff with an ERA just above 3.00 in 2021. Looking to push him towards an even higher level, Minnesota saw some opportunity to introduce another weapon into his repertoire. Having never before thrown any iteration of a slider, the Twins worked with Lopez on the new sweeper offering. He has thrown it just over one-quarter of the time across his 173 pitches in two starts. There is no denying that the usage has been significant, but that is not at all surprising given the results. Of the 48 sweepers he has flipped this season, 17 of them have resulted in a whiff. For a pitcher that got just over 12% swinging strikes last year, his 35.4% whiff rate on the sweeper offering alone is otherworldly. Thanks to the dominance of that pitch, other offerings have paired wonderfully resulting in a 16.8% overall whiff rate. Although Wes Johnson is no longer in the Minnesota organization, it’s hard not to be impressed with the velocity explosion that Pete Maki and the pitching staff has continued to exploit. That rings true with Lopez as well, and it’s even more impressive given the early juncture we are at during the regular season. Lopez sat 93.5 mph with his fastball last year, and has never averaged more than 94.1 mph on the pitch. This season, Lopez has jumped the fastball velocity to 95.3 mph, nearly two mph faster than his career average. The totality of the results has given Minnesota a starter that looks the part of an ace. Rocco Baldelli doesn’t have one of the ten best arms in baseball, but he has an entire rotation filled with guys capable of pitching as a number three or better. Given how well Sonny Gray, Joe Ryan, Tyler Mahle, and Kenta Maeda each looked out of the gate, you could overlook any one single performance to the credit of the group. If each of the arms continues to one-up the last, the Twins should have every opportunity to be there in the end. Any time the Twins struggle to score runs or look lost without a leadoff man, Arraez will be considered. Max Kepler has tried to fill in atop the lineup, and while not healthy now, needed a breakout game to get going. There is nothing wrong with Arraez doing well for Miami, and there isn’t a reason for anyone in Minnesota to have sour grapes when Lopez is shoving like he has. We are still very early in the season and Lopez will continue to fine-tune his repertoire as the year goes on. The velocity could jump even to another level as the weather continues to warm up, but so far it’s the sweeper that has gotten and deserved the attention. Generating whiffs on one-third of a pitch usage is probably unsustainable, but it could wind up being among the best offerings across MLB this season. When Statcast sought to classify the sweeper they wanted to find a way to describe a pitch more horizontal than the verticality of the slurve. Should things continue along this path maybe Pablo can petition for a name change to the Lopez by year's end. View full article