Cody Pirkl

Image courtesy of © Wendell Cruz-Imagn Images Simeon Woods Richardson looked to have found a missing piece of the puzzle in 2025: a new splitter that looked like a legitimate plus offering to round out his repertoire. So far in 2026, however, he’s been the most disappointing member of the rotation results-wise. What’s holding him back? The Splitter Is Different Woods Richardson’s splitter looked like a weapon in 2025. It led all of his pitches with a 32.5% whiff rate and completely disarmed opposing hitters when they made contact. The pitch was a big proponent of the strong stretch to end the season, in which he posted a 2.33 ERA and struck out 36 of the 104 batters faced over his last five starts. After he integrated the pitch midseason, it had a slow buildup, and the splitter finished as his fourth-most-used pitch. With an offseason ahead of him, we expected to see him turn to his new weapon much more often in 2026. The splitter has been the second-most used pitch for him so far this season, but it’s not seeing the same success. He’s throwing it 27.7% of the time, as opposed to 10% in 2025. It’s down to a 22.6% whiff rate and is allowing an expected batting average of .285 and expected slugging of .519. He’s throwing the pitch about half a mile per hour faster, and it’s getting about an inch less of vertical and horizontal movement. If this is an active change Woods Richardson and the Twins made to this pitch that was so successful in 2025, it may be time to rethink things. It's more likely, though, that the pitch just isn't doing what he wants it to do. The Whiffs Are Gone The splitter may have been Woods Richardson’s best pitch in 2025, but he had other successful offerings to turn to. That has certainly not been the case in 2026. His slider has dropped from a whiff rate of 27.4% to 20% so far, and the xwOBA allowed has increased from .261 to a crippling .377. His fastball has been his only acceptable offering so far, but even with decent expected numbers with the heater, it’s dropped from a 21.8% whiff rate to 12.4% in 2026. This all culminates in an untenable 11.4% strikeout rate overall so far this season. A lack of swing and miss leaves Woods Richardson exposed to the Twins’ poor defense, and we’ve already seen that come back to bite him on multiple occasions. He’s not pitching well, but even when he coaxes batted balls that should help bail him out of his frequent jams, his defense hasn’t made the plays for him. Any pitcher would have trouble with this little swing and miss, but this problem is magnified even further by how bad the Twins' defense is. Some Bad Luck In addition to the poor defense, Woods Richardson has experienced some bad luck. His 66.7% strand rate of opposing baserunners is a notable change from his 75.9% mark in 2025 and 73.6% mark in 2024. He’s putting plenty of runners on base, and those runners are scoring at an unexpectedly high rate. His batting average on balls in play allowed is also a career high of .291, which is particularly painful given how many batted balls he’s allowing. His fastball has been his best pitch so far, and he’s gotten unlucky with it in several ways. The pitch has yielded a .284 batting average, which conflicts with an expected mark of .224. It’s allowed a .345 wOBA, compared to a strong .296 expected wOBA. To be fair, the rest of his pitches have actually gotten lucky in these metrics, but it doesn’t help that the one offering he can turn to has been unlucky in addition to everything else going on. The heater also isn't setting up the rest of the arsenal as well as it has in the past. In 2024, his fastball was in the upper third of the zone or above it over 46% of the time. Last year, that number fell to 40%. This season, it's 33%. With the fastball coming in lower, there's less space to let his splitter or slider separate from that pitch. It means fewer whiffs when the non-fastballs are close to or in the zone. To create the differential you want to achieve a whiff, now, he often has to throw the slider and the splitter in non-competitive locations. Batters chased 30.9% of his sliders and splitters outside the zone last year. So far, in 2026, it's 24.8%. There isn’t much going right for Woods Richardson right now. Either intentionally or unintentionally, changes were made to several of his pitches that were successful in 2025, and the results have been disastrous. His strikeout rate looks like something out of the 1990s, and he’s pitching in front of one of the worst defenses in the league to count on for turning contact into outs. Given the injuries in the rotation, Woods Richardson has some time to right the ship, but the clock is ticking, with the Twins showing a newfound aggressiveness in calling up pitching prospects. Woods Richardson has a ton to fix if he wants to hold onto his rotation spot for the entire 2026 season. Can he pull it off? View full article

Image courtesy of © Jonah Hinebaugh/Naples Daily News/USA Today Network-Florida / USA TODAY NETWORK via Imagn Images Kyler Fedko had a performance for the ages on Sunday with the Saints. Three homers and a triple will draw plenty of headlines. Fedko is more than just a player who had one good day at Triple-A, however, and he's a strong candidate to help the Twins’ mismatched roster fit together better. Fedko wasn't having a banner year heading into Sunday. He had struck out in 33.3% of his at-bats and was hitting .107 in 11 games. His huge day could be seen as fun but inconsequential. Despite his struggles to begin the season, though, his 2025 performance should carry some weight. Fedko posted an .855 OPS for Wichita and St. Paul last season with 28 homers and 38 stolen bases. Sunday may be an outlier but his numbers in 2025 show that he's capable of consistent production. Beyond the stats, Fedko is a good fit for the Twins roster. He's capable of playing all three outfield spots. The Twins may not love him in center field, but for the small role of backing up Byron Buxton, he should be capable. He can also play first base, a spot currently platooned between Victor Caratini and Kody Clemens. Tying the fit together is Fedko being a right-handed hitter, which solves many problems with the lineup against left-handed pitching. If he can produce at all, the Twins’ lineup would get a boost. The odds of Fedko producing are uncertain, but the bar he'd need to clear to be useful is relatively low. The obvious way to open a roster spot to promote Fedko is to part ways with James Outman. The upside of keeping Outman on the roster has become difficult to see, and the downside is clear. He doesn't play much, but when he does, he looks completely overmatched. He's started the year 0-18 with 10 strikeouts. He won't get much opportunity with Buxton healthy, but it may be worth exploring other options in case the player in that role has to take on more playing time. At 26 years old, Fedko is not and has never been a top prospect. This isn't to say he's incapable of carving out a role for himself, but the Twins aren't paving him a path to playing time. This also means they shouldn't feel compelled to hold Fedko back in Triple-A until a more prominent role opens for him. Calling up Emmanuel Rodriguez to replace Outman would be hard to justify, as he wouldn't get everyday playing time to develop. With Fedko, they should be more willing to plant him into a specialized role, even if it risks disrupting his development. It's early in the season, but it already looks like the Twins should be open to trying something new in the backup center field role. Fedko is a good pivot from Outman, whom they gambled on at last year's trade deadline and who made the team out of spring training. Their investment in Outman is modest, and Fedko fits the roster as a stopgap until more playing opens up for a top prospect or 26-year-old Alan Roden. Fedko had a huge game on Sunday, but more than that one lightning strike of a day, his resume has earned him some consideration for a call-up. It's the perfect opportunity to see if he can translate any of his dynamic 2025 production to the MLB level. There's little to lose and (perhaps) much to gain for the Twins by giving Fedko a chance. View full article

Image courtesy of © Bruce Kluckhohn-Imagn Images After being the 8th overall pick in the 2022 MLB Draft, Brooks Lee has failed to live up to his pedigree, struggling to sustain success in the majors so far. He hasn't shown enough improvement, and his weaknesses have been fully exposed. Opposing pitchers are taking advantage, and Lee's future with the Twins may depend on whether he can make a huge adjustment—quickly. Brooks Lee has a sub-.650 OPS so far in his career, as he nears 750 plate appearances. He fails to control the strike zone and work counts. He lacks consistent power, as evidenced by his .370 SLG in 2025, which tells a different story than the 16 homers he hit. There are plenty of reasons for concern with Lee's offense. Priority number one right now is simple: Lee can only hit fastballs, and the league has figured that out. If he can't respond by changing it, he's in big trouble. Struggling against non-fastballs isn't uncommon. Most hitters make a living out of simply surviving against the soft stuff and tearing up velocity. "The best way to hit the curveball," hitters have long said, "is to hit the fastball." The first issue is that Lee doesn't perform well enough against heaters to carry him, with a .340 xwOBA against them in 2025. The second is that Lee can't handle off-speed pitches at all. Lee posted .216 and .214 xwOBAs on breaking balls and off-speed pitches, respectively, in 2025. Pitchers took note and have adjusted accordingly. Lee's free-swinging ways are too easy to exploit with non-fastballs, and it looks like opposing pitchers are going to lean into that information until Lee gives them a reason not to. Lee has seen fastballs about one-third of the time in 2026, down about 15% from 2025. For reference, Byron Buxton and Luke Keaschall have seen about 50% fastballs. It's no secret what's going through the minds of opposing pitchers when Lee steps up to the plate. There's a real risk that this issue is too much for Lee to overcome. It requires a complete overhaul of his approach and (in a sense) his swing. He identified the need to make this adjustment last season, but hasn't shown improvement in the small sample of 2026 so far. He'll have to make the adjustment during the season, and quickly, which means changing what he looks for in the box and how he times his swing. With top prospect Kaelen Culpepper off to a hot start in St. Paul, the clock is ticking on Lee being the everyday starting shortstop at the other end of the Green Line. In addition to scuffling at the plate, he appears stretched defensively. When Culpepper gets the call, which could be any time in the next few months, Lee will be out of a job. He can roam several infield spots as needed, but if he's still posting a sub-.700 OPS, it won't be worth prioritizing him in the lineup every day. He could very well find himself back in Triple-A. The book on Lee's career hasn't been written yet, but what we've seen so far has been worrisome. We've watched how difficult it can be to make adjustments when the league finds a young hitter's weakness. Unlike players such as Edouard Julien, Jose Miranda, or Matt Wallner—hardly a murderer's row in its own right, as things turned out—Lee has yet to show signs of being an impactful part of the Twins’ future to this point in his career. His performance, paired with the turnover within the front office that drafted him, could put him at risk of being pushed aside quickly. Lee needs to figure out how to make opposing pitchers pay for attacking him with the soft stuff. It can be as simple as identifying and taking changeups off the plate, or driving an occasional hanger into the seats, but he has to show something. The clock is ticking, as other shortstop options close in on debuting this season. Brooks Lee needs to make an adjustment, and fast, and so far, he's only adjusted little by slowly in the major leagues. View full article

Image courtesy of © Jay Biggerstaff-Imagn Images This offseason, Victor Caratini became the first free agent the Twins signed to a multi-year deal in two years. The $14-million, two-year price tag was fair, though it was surprising—and it was difficult to see how he fit the roster and timeline. The way he’s been utilized so far, the acquisition becomes even more questionable. For starters, the Twins acquired Alex Jackson early in the offseason. He had flashed offensively in 2025 and was a well-respected defender. This made him a viable backup for Ryan Jeffers, who was tabbed to pick up a larger percentage of the playing time behind the plate. Caratini’s signing eventually pushed Jackson off the roster, and he’s now stashed in St. Paul for the time being. It was certainly an upgrade at the backup catcher position, but it came at the cost of the limited payroll room the team had available with which to improve this winter. Caratini has started two games behind the plate thus far, and has started at first base three times. In the small sample of the 2026 season to date, the Twins have already committed to Jeffers in a way we never saw them do with Christian Vázquez in the picture, when the two were essentially locked in a timeshare. If this pattern holds, it’s worth questioning why the Twins allocated the resources they did to Victor Caratini. It appears Caratini is an everyday starter against left-handed pitching. It is what it is for a roster with not nearly enough buttons to push in those matchups. He owns a .668 OPS against southpaws in his career, but posted a much more tolerable .740 mark in 2025. Plugging this production into a role like Christian Vázquez had last season would be valuable; doing so at first base is less enticing. If Jeffers carries the lion’s share of work behind the plate for the rest of the season, it’s hard not to feel like the Twins missed an opportunity to legitimately upgrade their lineup. Caratini is a nice player who can switch-hit and play multiple positions in the field. He’s not a player to whom a competitive team should hand a regular role in a corner infield or DH spot. Both positions have a high offensive bar to clear, and have no shortage of options to fill them cheaply every year in free agency. It may be wishful thinking to assume the Twins would have spent the Caratini money elsewhere on the roster if they hadn’t signed him. If their usage of him so far is the plan going forward, however, it’s hard not to argue they should have. They could have kept Jackson for what would be a modest backup role behind the plate. Jackson, by the way, was a more valuable player by Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement than Caratini in 2025. Even signing a Rhys Hoskins type, who struggled last season but has a career .883 OPS against lefties, would have placed a more qualified player in the role Caratini has played so far. Perhaps we see Caratini mix in at catcher in a more even split as the season goes on (or take over as the starter, should Jeffers be dealt in July), but if the Twins stick to their plan for Jeffers to take on a bigger role catching, the signing doesn’t make much sense. Caratini moonlighting behind the plate while serving as the primary first baseman or DH against left-handed pitching isn’t going to provide much impact to a lineup that desperately needs it. The deal was clearly too good for the Twins front office to pass up, but if Caratini’s usage holds, the Twins won’t be better for seizing the opportunity. View full article

I've definitely harped on their mess of LHHs, I just found myself looking at the lineup against LHPs saying to myself "this isn't so bad". Thought it was important to point out that some of those players that can hit right-handed, particularly the ones they targeted this offseason, may potentially be as bad as sending out LHHs. Seeing a lineup with 8 RHHs against a LHP should be encouraging. Unfortunately for the Twins, they've put together a lineup that will stink in those matchups regardless.

Image courtesy of © Mitch Stringer-Imagn Images The Twins’ endless pursuit of left-handed corner outfielders has been well covered. The many poor-fitting pieces of the lineup have, as well. They're seeing the results of their lopsided roster construction to begin the season, and turning the corner feels unlikely. The Twins have mustered very little fight against left-handed pitchers, scoring two runs in 16 2/3 innings against them. In looking at the lineup they throw out in these matchups, you might feel like they should be able to at least hold their own. They're able to fill out most of the batting order with right-handed hitters. That may not be enough to save them, though. To be fair, we have yet to see several expected contributors pitch in much in this small sample to begin the season. Byron Buxton has yet to pick up a hit against left-handed pitching, and we're waiting for Luke Keaschall and Ryan Jeffers to take off. The Twins are surely counting on these players to carry the lineup. So far, Austin Martin has held his own in the leadoff spot when called upon, but the lineup has missed some expected production that's sure to show up at some point. Unfortunately, even as those names come around, it's hard to expect this lineup to perform against lefties. They're simply lacking in players to counter those matchups. Not only do they have too many left-handed hitters on the roster, but too many of the right-handed bats they have to rely on also aren't a big help. Brooks Lee has been better against left-handed pitching so far in his career, but that consists of just a .647 OPS. Josh Bell hasn't produced at an above-average clip against lefties since 2023, and posted a .552 OPS against them last season. Victor Caratini was slightly above average against them in 2025, but has a .672 mark against southpaws in his career. These three are going to be regulars on days with a left-handed starter on the mound, along with at least one left-handed hitter. This is the best the Twins have to offer. Their bench doesn’t have any other right-handed hitters to shuffle into the mix if these players continue to struggle, as we would expect them to. In short, there's no reason to expect this lineup to right the ship against left-handed pitching. They won’t be as bad as they’ve been in this small sample, but they’ll continue to struggle significantly. The falloff in the lineup is quick and precipitous, and will likely kill many of the rallies the top of the lineup doesn't finish. Even among the few bats the Twins chose to bring in this offseason who can hit right-handed, they did a poor job of adding impact from that side of the plate. It's yet another strike against the way the Twins chose to build their roster in 2026. Their emphasis on acquiring and retaining as many left-handed bats as possible left them with few roster spots to allocate to countering left-handed pitching. They filled those spots with bats that are technically capable of hitting right-handed, but are highly unlikely to be the impact contributors this lineup needs against lefties. From ace starting pitchers to marginal relievers, it's safe to expect the Twins to struggle mightily for all of the 2026 season against southpaws, and teams will continue to turn to them as often as they possibly can. If that's the case, it won't be because of underperformance or unexpected struggles. It will be because that's exactly what you'd expect from the roster they put together. View full article

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Acquired at last year's historic trade deadline sell-off, Alan Roden was an athletic 25-year-old outfielder whom the Twins chose to target in the Louis Varland trade. With a .917 OPS across over 100 games in Triple-A, Roden has little to prove in the minor leagues. That, paired with his age, means the next step in his career is proving he can produce in the majors, where he's struggled in 153 plate appearances. Unfortunately, the Twins aren't providing him that opportunity. In a vacuum, Roden should be a lock to make the Opening Day roster of a team projected to finish well below .500. He's likely the second-best defensive outfielder they have, after a strong showing in the field in 2025 by Outs Above Average. Despite his small sample of offensive struggles, he's shown significant upside in his Triple-A performance and could contribute to an MLB roster in several ways. He's a logical answer for a team looking to get faster and better on defense, while also having a chance to bloom offensively. Unfortunately, Roden had a minor-league option remaining, which led to his demotion on Sunday. His strong spring performance was not enough to beat out the Twins’ insatiable urge to hoard left-handed-hitting outfielders. Trevor Larnach and James Outman would have to be exposed to waivers if they don't make the roster. Now, the team can stash the 26-year-old Roden in Triple-A for his third stint at a level he has already dominated. Meanwhile, the 40-man roster remains overstocked with left-handed outfielders, with Walker Jenkins set to add to that group later this season. Of course, this could have been avoided at several junctures. It's worth asking why Roden was targeted by the Twins at all, as opposed to a player at literally any other position. The timeline of his career doesn't align with what the Twins need or what they can offer him in terms of opportunity. They also acquired Outman at the deadline, knowing his out-of-options status would contribute to a logjam in short order. Perhaps they saw good value and disregarded the fits. It all could have been solved this offseason by non-tendering Larnach, or trading him for just about anything. Instead, they chose to pay him $4.475 million, despite health concerns and the fact that he's little more than a DH with a career OPS of just .726. It's a baffling decision, in hindsight, considering the team's surfeit of this player type and need for as much payroll space as possible. Roden may not be a strong bet to be a big part of the next great Twins’ team, but he's an interesting player who deserves a real chance. His window of opportunity will be incredibly small—potentially limited to the time between whenever he's called up and when Emmanuel Rodriguez and Jenkins debut. This is an example of how the Twins simply cannot do a thorough job of sorting through these types of players, given how many of them they continue to collect and retain. Almost 1,700 plate appearances into Larnach's career, they're either still chasing some kind of undiscovered upside or see his career 103 wRC+ as too good to risk trying to improve upon. Alan Roden will be fortunate to get a quarter as many plate appearances to prove himself. Today, Roden is the loser in the Twins’ philosophy regarding left-handed-hitting outfielders. The team ultimately loses out, as well. They declined to take steps toward their goals of getting faster, more athletic, and better defensively. Their roster is extremely left-handed as a whole, and is certain to see that weakness attacked regularly. They're choosing not to pursue upside for a roster that is in desperate need of it if they want to contend in 2026. It's just bad roster construction. And the lack of opportunity they're creating by holding onto every player of this type will have lasting effects on players in future seasons. Roden will likely appear in 2026, but the current roster structure gave him no chance to earn a job this spring. His already limited window has likely shrunk further. The Twins could have avoided this, but their pursuit of left-handed hitters comes at a cost. Do you agree? View full article

Image courtesy of © Nathan Ray Seebeck-Imagn Images Zebby Matthews made an exciting rise through the Twins’ system in 2024 and flashed his potential in the majors in 2025. The expectation was that 2026 would bring him more opportunities to cement himself in the Twins’ rotation, and to finally turn the corner from promising to productive. As spring training winds down, it's looking like that chance is slipping past him. While it's important not to put too much weight into spring performance, we know some roster battles are underway. The bench spots are the obvious examples, but another opened in the rotation when Pablo López went down with an injury. It's safe to say the fifth spot (after Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Taj Bradley) will go to either Matthews or Mick Abel. The two have had very different springs. Abel, 24, was acquired at last year's trade deadline and has been one of the best arms in all of camp. He’s allowed just two runs in over 13 innings and struck out over a third of opposing hitters. Matthews's ERA is just under 6.00, and some of the underlying metrics are even more concerning. The velocity and raw stuff that jumped off the page while Matthews ascended through the Twins’ system haven't shown up this spring. In Sunday's start, he was missing a tick and a half on the fastball, and the velocity was down across the board. It’s worth wondering whether his shoulder injury from last season has anything to do with the dropoff, but even if this is simply a delay in getting into midseason form, it's easy to make an argument that Matthews should begin the season atop the Saints rotation, rather than at thee bottom of the Twins'. His stuff is worse even if we keep it apples-to-apples by setting his spring readouts alongside the ones from last spring training, rather than the regular season. While it would be good to afford Matthews all of the opportunities possible this season, he's still just 25 years old. The Twins will need another starting pitcher by the end of the first month or two. The team is also steadfast in its stated intention to win in 2026. If they want to hit the ground running, Abel has looked like a stronger bet to contribute immediately. Besides, rewarding a top prospect for an exciting spring is a good notion. If Matthews had built himself a stronger résumé at the big-league level, things would be different. He has yet to put it all together, though. The Twins came into this spring wanting to see one of their young starters come in and win a rotation spot, rather than having Matthews's name already written in. Abel is looking like that guy, instead of Matthews. Matthews has nothing left to prove in Triple-A, which would make him missing out on the Opening Day rotation a disappointing outcome. The same can be said for Abel, though. The Twins are fortunate to have several options for this spot, even if someone has to lose out, and that someone could be a homegrown prospect with a bright future with the team. View full article