Cody Pirkl

With Emilio Pagán leaving for Cincinnati, the Twins still have a strong returning relief corps in 2024. In years past, they’ve spent very little on the bullpen. This winter, they may be justified in doing so again. Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports This Twins front office has taken a few big swings on relief additions in their tenure and often whiffed. From Addison Reed to Jorge Lopez, it’s easy to see why the Twins may have developed a belief that bullpens aren’t worth majorly investing in. With a decline in payroll headed into 2024, we should expect them to show a good bit of restraint again. They would certainly be justified in doing so. Many believed the Twins could have benefitted from one more high-leverage reliever headed in 2023. It never hurts, after all. The Twins had reason to believe the top end of their bullpen was a strength between Jhoan Duran, Griffin Jax, and Lopez. Of course, Griffin Jax piled up blown leads early, and Lopez was eventually DFAed. Luckily, Brock Stewart emerged from Triple-A, and Jax righted the ship down the stretch to still have a formidable top of the bullpen by season’s end. This trio will return in 2024, assuming good health. Duran is likely the undisputed closer at this point. A case can be made to slot Stewart in as the setup man after he struck out nearly 36% of the hitters he faced, and Jax had a down season by his standards. Either way, this group combined for just over 155 innings in 2023 with a cumulative 3.1 Wins Above Replacement. It’s a back end of a bullpen many competitive teams would envy on paper. Caleb Thielbar should be back as a high-leverage, left-handed reliever capable of facing both righties and lefties. The question, of course, is health with the 36-year-old after repeated oblique issues limited him to just over 30 innings. He still struck out over 36% of opposing hitters and posted a 3.23 ERA on the season. Emilio Pagán’s departure will be noteworthy, though it’s important to remember that while his numbers were great, he pitched almost solely in low leverage. The problem at times last season was the middle relief group. The Twins cycled in several arms, hoping a few would stick, and it cost them some wins. Jovani Moran looked to build on a solid 2022 season and couldn’t do so. He’s now undergoing Tommy John surgery and is expected to miss all of 2024. Jorge Alcala has never really put it all together, and he has health questions of his own. Players like Cole Sands just never did enough to stick around. Luckily, down the stretch, the Twins finally gave Kody Funderburk a shot. In 12 innings, he allowed one run and stuck out over 40% of the hitters he faced. It’s a small sample, but the lefty has a history of retiring hitters from both sides of the plate while picking up a healthy amount of strikeouts. There’s at least a tiny hope that a few other internal options emerge to fill the middle innings. Jordan Balazovic’s MLB debut was unsuccessful, but if he is fully prepared as a traditional one-inning reliever, he may rediscover the talent that once made him a top prospect. Josh Winder began throwing a two-seam fastball down the stretch that would hopefully solve the fastball woes that have held him back despite a solid secondary pitch mix. The Twins are in a better spot with the bullpen than in recent years. There are plenty of red flags, both health and performance-wise, but that’s to be expected on any roster. We may see them add a reliever this winter; it’s never a bad idea. It may be likelier that whoever they bring in is more of a flier for a few million dollars or even a waiver claim. The odds of the Twins bringing in a big-time arm for the back innings, at least at market price, are extremely low. With the foundation they have in place and the payroll space they’re working with, we may see them more or less stand pat. Unlike in some recent years, doing so would be more justified. Do you agree? View full article

The Twins have to decide how to navigate a reduced payroll, and Jorge Polanco is an option to ship out and save some money. They also could use some reinforcements at first base. Could these two issues solve each other? Image courtesy of Erik Williams-USA TODAY Sports Jorge Polanco has cemented himself as a piece of the Twins' core. First, an All-Star caliber shortstop, then more recently, the everyday starting second baseman. Could Jorge Polanco make another change in position to address a roster need and remain in Minnesota? Edouard Julien is a core piece of the Twins lineup for years to come. Although his defense at second base remains suspect, he seemed to improve as the year went on, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the Twins completely trusted him to cover the position to begin 2024. Brooks Lee also looms in Triple-A, with second base among the positions he could fill when he’s ready to debut. With Polanco still in the mix, his contract makes him a candidate to be shipped out due to the redundancy of his position. Switching him to first base could completely change the situation. Polanco isn’t the typical first base player archetype, but the Twins are no strangers to filling the position with nontraditional players. Luis Arraez played there in 2022 plenty, and even Alex Kirilloff is far from the prototypical slugging corner bat. The fact is that Polanco is a switch-hitter capable of putting up an offensive line that’s 15-20% better than league average. That should play just about anywhere. For as much of a question as Julien’s defense is, Polanco has been far from a Gold Glove second baseman since he transitioned from shortstop. 2023 was his best season by Defensive Runs Saved with a +1 mark. His range continues to decline, as noted by his -7 Outs Above Average measured by Statcast. Despite Polanco's solid defensive rep, going from him to Julien at second base might not be the drop-off someone would suspect. It’s hard to say Polanco would be a net positive defensively at first base, but with range being his main limiting factor, it could be worth a shot. It’s also possible that moving to a position where he doesn’t have to cover as much ground could help him stay on the field more. His hamstring issues in 2023 resulted from running out of the batters' box, but it’s fair to say that playing first base could take some pressure off his ankle, which has been an issue for years now. Should Polanco be a trustworthy first baseman, the Twins will have solved multiple problems. He can be the right-handed platoon with Kirilloff (if he's healthy) while still moving around DH and other infield positions. If Kirilloff’s injury woes persist, Polanco’s ability to switch hit would make him an everyday option if needed. The Twins could keep a franchise player on the roster and not have to go out looking for additional help at first base. Even at $10.5m in 2024 and $12m in 2025, Polanco’s contract with first base in his repertoire would be worth it. First base seems to be a priority this winter, and Jorge Polanco’s salary looks extraneous. Rather than dumping Polanco for what would likely be a disappointing return, the Twins should get creative and see if he can make yet another defensive transition. Do you agree? View full article

The Twins need a Sonny Gray replacement and have an upcoming logjam in the infield. The Seattle Mariners have a wealth of starting pitching. Could the two teams match up this offseason in a deal? Image courtesy of Nathan Ray Seebeck-USA TODAY Sports The Mariners were reportedly willing to discuss trading some of their young pitching last trade deadline, and it’s easy to see why on their depth chart. With several younger arms emerging to complement some quality veteran options, they’re in a position where they may feel comfortable making a big move. The Twins have become surprising candidates for a big move in recent years. Perhaps the two sides could agree on a win-win deal this winter. A few arms in Seattle can likely be ruled out immediately. Luis Castillo just began a five-year, $108m deal that takes him off the table. Robbie Ray was injured last season in year three of a five-year, $115m deal. His eventual return in 2024 may be a factor in the Mariners looking to deal an arm. It can also be assumed that this bunch has no cheap options. If a deal develops, the Twins will be parting with serious capital. It’s worth looking at each potential option and why they may be enticing to the Twins front office. Logan Gilbert With almost 400 innings in the last two seasons with low to mid 3s ERAs, Gilbert has established himself as a front-end starting pitcher at age 26. The only reason the Mariners would even consider parting ways with such an asset is that they have so many other quality pitchers who are even younger. Gilbert is an established workhorse that could bring tremendous value. Controlled through 2028, Gilbert will be in arbitration into his 30s. Whichever organization Gilbert is in will control him for nearly all of his prime, and some believe he's capable of picking up a few more strikeouts, which would bring him to an even higher level. Gilbert would immediately fill Sonny Gray's shoes as the #2 behind Pablo Lopez, and the Twins would feel great penciling him into game two of a playoff series. George Kirby Kirby was more effective than Gilbert in 2023, throwing 190 innings with a 3.35 ERA. He’s certainly lived up to his first-round pedigree, as Kirby attacks the strike zone with a four-pitch mix and threw seven different pitches in 2023 at least once. The Twins have seen firsthand that when Kirby is on, he can make easy work of opposing lineups, and like Gilbert, there may be another level to his game when it comes to strikeouts as he matures. Kirby would also be a legitimate #2 behind Lopez, and his pedigree includes tremendous health and dominance on the mound. At just 25 with team control through 2029, Kirby may cost even more than Gilbert, and it’s possible he’s not on the trade block at all. Bryce Miller Miller is certainly a step down from the top two in Seattle, but there’s a lot to like. His profile resemble's Joe Ryan's fastball-heavy approach, but Miller averages over 95 mph on the heater. His offspeed was a work in progress, but he sometimes dominated despite his decline in the 2nd half as he neared his innings cap. Miller finished the season with just over 130 innings, creating a floor to build off of in 2024. Being less established, Miller should cost less, but his six years of team control still won’t make him cheap. Other Options Seattle’s rotation also consists of younger names such as Bryan Woo and Emerson Hancock, who only briefly debuted but carry pedigree and at least brief periods of success. It’s unlikely the Twins would take on such pitchers, but you never know what they may see that they could improve. Marco Gonzalez is also still in Seattle, and despite his season-ending early due to forearm issues, he’s been a solid pitcher for the entirety of his career. Should the Twins look in that direction, he could be a cheap back end of the rotation option. Cost The Mariners need more exciting options, particularly at second base, for the near future. This makes the Twins a perfect trade match. Edouard Julien has proven he’s a long-term solution at the position, which raises questions regarding players such as Jorge Polanco and top prospect Brooks Lee. With Polanco, as Twins fans know, the Mariners would get an immediate impact player at second base. Even with a reasonable $12m club option for 2025, the Twins would likely have to add significant prospect capital for someone on Gilbert or Kirby’s level. It would likely have to include a name like Emmanuel Rodriguez and other quality names. Brooks Lee could make up a significant part of a return if the Mariners are interested in him. It would be a big gamble on the Twins' part, but it could prove worthwhile if the Twins get a controllable Sonny Gray replacement in return. A trade with Seattle for a controllable starting pitcher would likely be shopping at the high end of the trade market. Sonny Gray’s possible departure can’t be understated, and this is where the Twins have to look. A trade with the Mariners would surely cost several well-known names. Is it worth it to pick up a potential front-of-the-rotation starting pitcher? View full article

Gallo was absolutely one of the worst players in the league. He's a below average fielding outfielder at this point and about average at first base by DRS and Outs Above Average. There may be players with worst offensive stats, but teams will be willing to give just about anybody else a shot to play corner infield over Gallo who will be average at best defensively while posting a below average slash line (his was only positive because of the first two weeks of the season) while approaching a 50% strikeout rate. Not to mention his absolutely brutal baserunning. The Twins probably could have gotten the same production or better down the stretch from Yunior Severino if they'd switched him to first base earlier in the season. Gallo was pretty much the worst case scenario for how a big chunk of salary can be used. He did very little on the field to help the Twins win for the last 5 and a half months of the season.

While I agree, it's kind of like arguing that the Twins should have a $200m payroll. We can say that's what they should do, but it's just not how they operate and therefore isn't worth arguing. If they signed Carlos Santana this winter and he hit .150 while Yunior Severino had a 1.000 OPS in Triple-A, it's probably July before they even consider making a change. Unfortunately that's how they operate.

I agree, the Twins don't necessarily have to sell off contracts, it's just one way they could combat the reduced payroll. Polanco stands out to me because they have a lot of infield depth on it's way and already in the majors. If they had $10m more to spend it may be the difference in signing Lucas Giolito and signing Vince Velazquez. They'll just have to figure out what parts of the roster they want to allocate the most payroll to.

Counter point: Twins sign the next Joey Gallo at $12m this winter and maintain the same payroll. That player is one of the worst players in baseball and gets a guaranteed roster spot all season because they're a veteran making money. Meanwhile 2024's version of Matt Wallner is stuck in St. Paul for half of the season and it's a terrible look when they finally get called up and have clearly been ready for months. We just saw it play out in 2023, just playing devils advocate. It's obviously unacceptable that the payroll appears to be getting cut. Sure these options already existed, but we know the Twins wouldn't have used them until they had no other choice if they signed potentially washed up veterans, regardless of performance on either end. I'd rather the Twins go out and sign Cody Bellinger for CF or Aaron Nola to replace Sonny Gray, but it doesn't appear that's going to happen, so these are the players that likely stand to benefit. Some of them could turn into valuable MLB players. That's worth discussing.

The negatives are obvious and will be discussed ad nauseam. Nobody is celebrating a decline in payroll. There are players that will benefit by getting an opportunity though, that's a fact. Those players are worth talking about. We don't need to spend the winter focusing on the negatives of the situation.

The Twins are cutting and potentially slashing payroll this winter. While this will undoubtedly result in a rightfully negative response, it will create opportunity. Which players stand to benefit from the Twins reducing payroll? Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports If the reports hold that the Twins are attempting to cut payroll from over $150m in 2023 to $125-140, the expectations for activity this offseason can be lowered significantly. The downside of this is obvious. The Twins likely can’t afford to bring in a proven slugger like Rhys Hoskins for first base. Safer Sonny Gray replacements, such as Eduardo Rodriguez or Aaron Nola, can be all but written off. There will be plenty of negativity around this news, and it’s all warranted. However, the payroll reduction will create opportunities for some players within the organization, likely the sole positive of pulling back on spending. Austin Martin With center field as one of the primary needs this offseason, Martin could be part of the solution. It would be great to sign Kevin Kiermaier or bring back Michael A. Taylor, but these names may price themselves out of the Twins' plans due to requiring multiple years or a one-year deal at a premium. Willi Castro became a passable center fielder in 2023, and they still hope that Byron Buxton will return to the field at some point. Austin Martin would be the fallback option, undoubtedly getting a big chance to stick in 2024 if everything stays the same. Martin slashed .263/.386/.405 in St. Paul last season, and the Twins are high on his ability to handle center. He stole 16 bases in 59 games, and his six homers were the most he’s hit in a season in professional ball. Martin’s skill set would be a great complement to the Twins' lineup with his ability to get on base and lack of strikeouts, and he could even become a platoon leadoff hitter against lefties if everything breaks right. Yunior Severino Even after Alex Kirilloff’s shoulder injury proved less significant than initially thought, the Twins likely need more confidence in the former top prospect’s ability to lock down first base for 2024. A right-handed option to platoon is a reasonable ask to insulate the position. Such a role may be less of a priority with limited funds available. Severino has little to prove after leading the minors with 35 homers in 2023. He got off to a rough start in his Triple-A debut but finished with a slash line of .233/.320/.511, and the Twins saw enough to add him to the 40-man roster after the season. Severino is a strikeout-prone light tower power hitter with a defensive profile likely to slot in best at first base. His ability to switch hit makes up for some of his lack of versatility, and he could carve out a career for himself as an all-or-nothing slugger capable of being a legitimate offensive weapon when he’s running hot. At 24 years old, Severino’s time may come in 2024, as the first call-up should Alex Kirilloff miss more time. Jair Camargo To combat the financial limitations, the Twins may not only spend less but look to shed salary from places they can afford to add elsewhere adequately. Should they decide to do so, Christian Vazquez becomes a prime candidate to ship out to another team. After not appearing in a single postseason game, it’s obvious Vazquez is the backup to Ryan Jeffers, and his total collapse offensively in 2023 makes him more replaceable despite his still great defense. Camargo profiles as a perfect backup catcher: He spent all of 2023 in St. Paul, hitting .259/.323/.503 with 21 homers in 90 games, he has received solid reviews on his defense and pitch calling, and his raw power gives him enough of a floor to be an asset to an MLB squad for several years. Camargo would likely debut in 2024 regardless after being added to the 40-man. Trading away an MLB catcher may push him onto the Opening Day roster. The Twins have internal options should they slash payroll, as in addition to the listed names above, they have several other young players on their way. Deshaun Kiersey Jr. may create a strong career for himself in center field. Several pitchers, such as David Festa, could see an earlier debut should the Twins shop in the bargain bin to replace Sonny Gray. At least with the deflating news comes the excitement of young players potentially debuting. Are there any other internal options that stand to benefit from the payroll decrease? Let us know below! View full article

Matt Wallner had a frustrating postseason debut in 2023, and many fans were rightfully disappointed. It’s worth noting that despite a poor stretch of five games, Wallner should have established himself as an exciting part of the 2024 lineup. Image courtesy of Jesse Johnson, USA Today Matt Wallner is a great story, being one of several native Minnesotans on the Twins roster in 2023. Many fans have been rooting for him since being drafted by the Twins 39th overall in 2019. His debut in 2022 left a lot of questions about his ability to hold up against MLB-level pitching. 2023 was far from perfect, but headed into 2024, Wallner should have fans feeling a bit better. Fans hate strikeouts. Twins fans especially do after watching the home team strike out a record number of times in 2023. They’ve also been subject to long stretches of hollow at-bats by hitters such as Miguel Sano and Joey Gallo in recent years, which has turned them particularly sour to whiffs. Strikeouts are a part of Matt Wallner’s game; there’s no way around it. Even in Triple-A, he struck out just a shade under 30% of the time in 2023. His 31.5% rate improved from the 38.5% he posted in limited action in 2022. The question with players like Matt Wallner isn’t whether they will strike out. It’s whether they make the strikeouts worth it. In 2023, Matt Wallner showed that he can make the trade-off worthwhile. In 254 plate appearances, Wallner slashed .249/.370/.507, good for 44% above the league average hitter. He walked 11% of the time and was on a 30+ homer pace for an entire season. Max Kepler had the lowest strikeout rate on the Twins, with a minimum of 250 plate appearances, and Wallner outpaced him in OPS .877 to .816. Matt Wallner’s 2023 is a prime example of how a high strikeout rate can be worth it. More encouraging even than Wallner cutting his strikeout rate from 2022 to 2023 is the fact that pitchers seemed to find a hole in his swing midseason, and Wallner was able to adjust back. The strikeouts became a focal point when Wallner went 0-16 with eight strikeouts from September 5-10, causing some to wonder whether we were watching things play out similarly to Trevor Larnach earlier in the season. Wallner took a day off to make some adjustments and finished the season, slashing .354/.456/.646 with a 28% strikeout rate. As a hitter who tries to wait out the pitcher to make a mistake, the strikeouts go hand in hand with the power and walks. Anything close that he doesn’t want to hit, he’ll spit on. Sometimes, he’ll miss pitches in the zone with two strikes, leading to higher strikeout rates. It’s an approach that could become a lot easier to accept if the Twins don’t have such a strikeout-heavy team in 2024. Joey Gallo and his 42.8% strikeout rate will be off the roster next season. Michael A. Taylor and his 33.5% strikeout rate may be as well. With fewer all-or-nothing hitters in the lineup regularly, Wallner should be a better complementary hitter in the Twins lineup, especially when contact specialists such as Brooks Lee and Austin Martin debut. It’s still a limited number of at-bats for Wallner in his career, but the high ceiling he’s shown, along with the ability to adjust, should be very encouraging. He may always be prone to stretches of low points to go along with the highs, but the hope is that as he develops, he becomes more consistent and continues to be able to adjust back to opposing pitchers. Five games in October shouldn’t warp fans' view of Matt Wallner. He had an unbelievable year, and there’s no reason to believe he won’t have a chance at an everyday role in 2024. Is he due for regression? Could he possibly even improve upon his impressive 2023? Let us know below! View full article