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DocBauer

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DocBauer last won the day on November 6 2021

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About DocBauer

  • Birthday 10/21/1965

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  • Biography
    My father, and best man I've ever known, was born and raised in South Dakota, as was I for my first 10 years; Brookings, SD, home of the SDSU Jackrabbits. My father passed on his love for the Twins and (heaven help us-lol) the Vikings. I have lived the past 30 plus years in Nebraska, Kearney first (home of the Lopers) and 20 plus years now in Omaha. And yes, I am a died in red wool Husker fan as well. The love of my teams borders on obsession at times. I have been grateful to 59.0 WNAX my whole life for my Twins and Viking games. And the fan in me is thankful every day for satellite TV and the Internet for team information. I live in Omaha with my beautiful, wonderful wife, (also a sports fanatic! But the Bears? Ugh! Lol) my dogs and three kidlets.
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    Writing, dachshund rescue, movies and my teams

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  1. Another good write up, Nick! Bullet points from me. 1] The Twins seem legitimate in their pursuit of Correa or Bogaerts. Getting either, or any of the top 4, changes the infield defense and the lineup. They seem honest and earnest in their pursuits. Can they and will they follow through? 2] I like the farmer move a lot for flexibility and depth and a floor. I think he fits the 2023 roster better than Urshela. But he's that much better depending on point #1. 3] Somehow, no matter other additions, including at SS, this lineup/roster needs a solid RH bat to help offset the LH dominance. It just can't be ignored yet again. Garlick as the only option? Really? I don't see it. I believe he's this year's version of Cave. 4] I am IN on Rodon for $25M for 4 or 5yrs, despite the inherent risk of adding FA pitchers. I think he'd deliver enough to warrant the risk and $. But if he really might warrant $30M...and I'm not convinced...then I think I'm out. I like what's on hand, and some depth, but feel a lot better if I have one nice add for depth and options. I'm just expecting someone to be hurt. I want that extra good arm equal to what we have, if not better. And there's still a handful of arms that I believe fit that category. 5] I like the shape/start of the pen. I would love to bring back Farmer, or equivalent. I'd also love to add someone like Hand or Rogers from the LH side. I'm not sure payroll will allow that when all is said and done. But it might allow adding at least 1. 6] Speaking of payroll, $50M+ just to get back to 2022. Another $10M for a logical bump to around $150M, which probably keeps the Twins around 15 or 16 in MLB. If a Kepler moves, that's yet another $8+ M to add. Urshela gone, Farmer added, Pagan kept, is all about a wash financially. Realistically, the Twins could have as much as $70M to play with. That's a TON. But a chunk is gone with a SS and a SP, whether Correa and Rodon or other. Still need a catcher and RH bat, maybe a pen arm. A lot of opportunity, but it has to be spent smart with some room to distribute around a little. Could be tight. 7] I'm still flabbergasted about Pagan. Nearly $4M for a middle reliever who you can only hope will go 2 innings and not allow a major HR 2 or 3 run blast every other time out??? I still see this as obstinace and poor usage of funds and roster management. Please tell me they're going to still move him for ANYTHING and clear the $ and roster spot for better fit/need.
  2. No matter where you look, you will see different reports on current payroll. Maeda, for example, can be counted for his guaranteed minimum, OR, at his incentive based maximum. But Sano, Archer, and Bundy amount to $4.5M that is counted toward 2022, and not the 2023 payroll. So depending where you look, they can be removed and the listed payroll would then have another $4.5M to work with.
  3. Yes, we need to add to the offense. The parallels between the pitching staff and the lineup are mirror images of one another. Both, on paper right now, have a lot of good looking options. And there's at least some depth. But there's questions about each. The lineup looks much better with 1 of the top 4 SS being added, if the Twins are as serious about doing so as they appear to be. While Swanson is probably the lightest of the bats, he's still good and all pencil in somewhere at the top of the lineup with Arraez and Polanco. Buxton is anywhere from good/dangerous to outstanding when in the lineup. Miranda has the real stuff, even though young and speed bumps happen. Ditto for AK, Larnach, and Wallner. All 3 young LH have real potential and have consistently grown and produced at the milb level and have flashed at the ML level. And a healthy Kepler, if he's kept, is just not as bad as he was in 2022. (Though he belongs lower in the order). Whether you like him or not, Jeffers has a lot of untapped potential with his bat. A solid co-catcher of some sort is needed, of course. But questions of health are an issue, same as the pitching staff. I don't want to ignore the staff. I'd like a pen arm, maybe 2 if it can fit in the budget, and I'm all in for a quality rotation add. But even with a TOP SS add, once again, a quality RH bat simply must be added to balance and deepen the roster/lineup. It's been ignored for 2yrs now and simply has to be worked in to the 2023 budget/roster somewhere.
  4. Is this his year? As an amateur GM/fan on the outside looking in, I'm not sure I'm using ink to write his name in anywhere. But boy do I sure hope so! Sweet swing, good contact, good power, solid OB, decent OF and really good looking 1B, he could really raise the lineup potential. In the brief weeks he's been healthy for the Twins, he's looked really good. I'm hoping with fingers crossed he's finally good to go come ST...or soon after...and he can really get his career started.
  5. Side note: The market will dictate, but if you can, sign Leon on some sort of high value split deal where he can be invited to ST but be waiting in St Paul the same way Cave was last year, and the same way I believe Garlick will be handled this year.
  6. OK. So he's a Doger next year. Time to focus on SS. Once that's done, focus on ONE really good arm to deepen the back end of the pen. Maybe two? Fulmer and Rogers on 1yr deals or 1 +1 offers? Add a quality RH bat and a 6th SP as good as what we have, and a catcher to pair with Jeffers. $145-150M payroll with infield defense, a nice rotation with depth, a potentially great pen, and improved offense.
  7. Stu, you forgot to mention that along with the $99 6 month Phil Cuzzi, "MY FAVORITE BLOWN CALLS" offer, you also receive...FREE OF CHARGE...a 12 month subscription to Angel Hernandez's podcast "WHY I'M A REALLY GOOD UMPIRE", subtitled, "why everyone should really like and root for me". It's an amazing 2 for 1 gift idea that should be at the top...errr...bottom of every baseball fan's Xmas list.
  8. Now just bear with me for a moment. In my blueprint idea for 2023 I thought long and hard about Haniger and Wil Myers as FA, RH hitting OF options who could fill a rather desperate need for the Twins. It's debatable whether or not Kepler is kept or moved, and there are clear reasons for either happening. It's possible Kepler is moved and the corner OF spots are filled with a combination of Larnach, Wallner, Kirilloff, and Gordon. One can easily see Wallner beginning 2023 in St Paul if Kepler is kept. That still demands a RH bat with offensive ability to be added. Gaining another $8M from a move of Kepler, obviously, adds to the financial pot at the FO disposal to add at SS, as well as other positions. And in my blueprint, I decided that Haniger is just too good to pass up, despite some injury risk. I'd rather have him than Myers based on pure production when in the lineup. (He's even got some experience in CF as a spot fill in option in a pinch). I liked the trade idea for Renfro a lot when presented, but alas, that's off the table now. But what happens if the Twins DO bring on one of the top SS? Well, the large pool of $ to add to the roster shrinks, though it's still $8M larger if Kepler movement speculation comes to pass. But a few more additions need to be made at catcher, as well as maybe an arm or two. What if there's just no room to add Haniger, or Myers, and still an existing need for a RH OF bat? To me, Garlick is this year's version of Jake Cave, break the glass in emergency. He'll probably be moved to St Paul, just like Cave, and is simply NOT plan A. But what if the potential $60-$75M actually disappears pretty quickly with a HUGE signing, maybe two, and a couple smaller ones? Enter plan B in Andrew McCutchen at 36yo. "Are you crazy, Doc?". Maybe. He's had a fine career and is no longer the player he once was. But folowme on this. I don't have his 2022 numbers against LHP, but for his career his quad slash is as folows: .300/ .394/ .542/ .936 with a career OPS+ of 122 Not surprisingly, he has better career numbers against LHP. While certainly not the defensive OF he once was, he still played 131 GS started in 2021 for the Phillies. In 2022, the Brewers started him 42 games in the OF, and 82 games at DH. FWIW, his fielding % in 2021 was .980, and in 2022 it was 1.000. This means, simply, he didn't screw up too badly and caught what he could get to. The big question, fielding wise, is could he be worse than Garlick? Kepler kept or not, I'd like a better option like Haniger, or maybe Myers. But if things turn out well with a couple really good signings, there may not be room. RHP is still, obviously, the norm. But also obvious is the Twins vulnerability to LHP. 'Cutch is probably only a 1yr option. But he provides an experienced bat, still with power, who has excellent career numbers against LHP. He'd be a part time starter and experienced PH off the bench. And he would come cheap. Is he an interesting add as the 5th OF who might pay dividends against LHP if the budget gets tight? Or am I just crazy for thinking so?
  9. I know I'm going to catch heat for this, but that's OK. I believe you improve your team, at any position, when you can, and as much as you can. That being said, I just don't that I want to send out even more prospect capital to add to catcher right now. I'm OK with Jansen if he comes cheap to clear the Jay's logjam. Otherwise, I'm still looking at someone in the FA market to pair with Jeffers and look to make a difference somewhere else. I understand I like Jeffers more than some. I like his game calling and handling of the staff. I like the offense he's shown in college, milb, 2020, and part of 2022, and I like that's he's only 25yo and still has upside as a hitter. I like Narvaez as a solid, veteran backstop with an OK LH bat, with some power, to form a nice mix behind the plate. I would like to see one good, quality RP to deepen the back end of the pen and use the other younger arms available for middle relief. I'm fully in favor of adding another SP as good as, hopefully better than, Gray and Mahle for depth and options, if not improvement. I want the Twins to grab one of the top 4 SS to solidify the infield and help the offense. And I want at least one other quality RH bat to add to the lineup SOMEWHERE. And I prefer the Twins to use all of this financial flexibility they have to make smart additions to build for 2023. But...while I'm NOT objecting to making a trade for improvement...I'd like to stop trading quality prospects AT THIS TIME for additions/improvements and use their $ capital. Now, one thing the FO HAS DONE previously is change gears and go a different direction to add when their intended targets don't fall in to place. That always changes the complexion of things. But they are in a prime situation that they themselves manufactured to have the flexibility to make a couple big and decent moves for once. So I'd like to see them do so.
  10. Just a note on your finances...if I'm understanding you, and didn't miss something...you are including the $4.5M for Sano, Archer, and Bundy? Those buyouts actually count towards the 2022 season. That gives you another $4.5M to play with on your budget.
  11. FWIW, if the Mariners had offered the qualifying offer, it was for $19.5M. I like Haniger and would be in favor of his addition and the potential impact he could have. Yes, I'm crossing my fingers a little bit that he doesn't have anything other than small dings and dents and doesn't miss any appreciable time. But I wouldn't offer him $19.5M either
  12. Thank you Nick for a tremendous article! I am still baffled about calls to "go get an ACE", as if they were being dangled as a blue-light special at K-Mart. (Old school reference I know, lol). They either cost a fortune in players and prospects from a re-building team, or cost a similar $ fortune on the rare opportunity they hit FA. I think the FO is beyond skittish to sign a quality FA. The problem there is there are FA who turn out just fine, and justify their signing. And all it takes is that ONE signing that turned out for everyone to say "SEE". And Wheeler is a good example. Darvish is a lesser example as he's been OK. And there are other examples. Lester for the Cubs? You never get FULL VALUE, but you pay, generally, for those couple of seasons where they are good. I can't tell you how much I want Rodon on a 4yr deal, or 5yr, maybe with an opt out. He actually moves the needle of contention, even though I know he will be good/great only half the time. But believe me, I understand the percentages and the FO aversion to these deals. But again, when it works, it was worth the deal. IMO, while some kind of ACE is amazing to have, I've always believed a collection of #2 and #3 SP with a great pen made the most sense. For the season, and the playoffs, I want the deepest staff I can put together. ONE GAME doesn't guarantee anything. Damn, I still want Rodon, lol, and I hope we get him, but the cost has to make sense. But there are a couple of SP options out there besides Rodon I believe the Twins should be looking at. They should be EXPECTING someone to be injured and need the depth, if they really want to compete in 2023. Even then, there will be room for Varland, SWR, maybe Balazovic at some point, etc. Even with good health, you still need 8-10 SP in a season. I like what's on hand. I wouldn't mind extending Gray. I think a healthy Mahle just might be our best SP. I like Ryan and Ober a lot. I think Maeda might surprise. But if I want to contend, I'd just expect injuries and sign someone as good as what we have, or better. Rodon might be the only "better" than what we have. Is he worth the risk? IDK. But a healthy Rodon looks good, doesn't he? I'm not expecting him. But I sure hope we add one of the other "good as Gray" arms because I don't want to just trust in health.
  13. Honestly, I'm really torn on this idea. And like everyone else, I'm a HUGE Arraez fan and love wat him at the plate. Honestly, the past 2yrs, if we needed a big AB, the two guys I'd want up at the plate would be Polanco and Arraez. I understand fully the totality of "negative" value tied to Arraez because he's not a power hitter, and he's basically average at 2B and 3B. Now, there's value in being able to play those spots at an average level as a fill in, but not tremendous value. I do think he looked pretty good at 1B and should only get better. And are his knees a serious issue? I can't say for certain. He worked hard last offseason to lose weight and gain muscle. Will his new found conditioning help in the future? Is there a chronic knee issue? I think it's fair to say we don't know for sure yet. And then we have the standard trope of a 1B and DH being power hitters and Arraez loses value if is hit and OB tool is his only calling card. On the other hand: NOT saying the still young Arraez can't continue to cover 2B/3B for a few more years, but 1B/DH players tend to age well. Players with high AVG/OB/CONTACT skills tend to also age very well. And in this day of 3 outcome players/lineups, there is absolutely room for a player with those types of skills to set the table, advance runners, keep a half inning moving along, or deliver a key hit. Arraez is that kind of player. Does he have power? Well, not really. But he hits doubles. And whether a combination of his strength conditioning, just growing in to "man muscle" in his mid 20's, or growth and maturity as a hitter, his HR power did take a jump this past year. He's just never going to be a slugger by any means. Doesn't mean doubles and HR's might not increase somewhat going forward. There's a lot of ways to build a lineup. If you have a better than average producer at say, SS, CF, 2B, catcher, what's wrong with a corner guy who isn't a slugger but provides defense, speed, or a great bat and OB? Offense is offense REGARDLESS what position provides it! And I've never bought in to the DH being ONLY some postionless player who thumps the ball. Why? I mean, it's great when you have a Cruz to be THAT GUY, but there aren't that many that are so special. HOF'er Carew moved to 1B and was never a power plant. He was a "similar" player as Arraez. (NOT making a direct comparison here). Wade Boggs was one of the greatest hitters in the history of the game, with outstanding OB ability. (Granted, he turned in to a pretty good defensive 3B over time). But his power was of the doubles variety. When they asked him to hit for power and moved him down in the lineup, he suddenly produced more HR. But his AVG and OB declined and Boston then asked him to go back to his former approach and spot in the lineup. Just a few references to again say that if you have good players, and a good lineup, does it matter that a certain SPOT that is "traditionally" a power hitter isn't? Arraez is a very special kind of hitter. I wouldn't be a bit surprised if he won another batting title or two as a table setter and clutch hitter. My goodness, he won't even be 26yo until April of 2023! Have we even seen the best of him yet? He's under control for 3 more years, if I understand his timeline. Not playing a premium position and not being a power hitter will always hold down his $ value, though not his value to a lineup. I would absolutely look at an extension....but not now. I understand his cost wil continue to rise, as it does for every player. But he's probably never going to be overly "expensive". And the FO has enough to work on right now to get ready for 2023. I'd let things play out for 2023. Let's see if his new-found conditioning is for real...and I have little doubt...and let's see if the knees are going to be fine, or an ongoing issue. (Betting they won't be). This time next year, yeah, I'm looking at 4 or 5yrs for $40-50M-ish. I just don't think there is a rush to do so now.
  14. Without knowing any of the exact details of the three different offers, I like the approach being taken. And if I'm Correa and Boras, I think I'd like this approach as well, as it's allowing them a huge "here it is for 10yrs" OR the ability for a very high AAV and the ability to re-enter the market again in a few years. I think most of us have generally held the position that some sort of opt out would need to be included to re-sign him, granting Correa and Boras the opportunity to maximize financial opportunity. Now, that doesn't mean someone can't come in from one of the major markets and just go 10yrs and $330M and just blow up any chance the Twins have. And, unfortunately, any kind of opt out isn't a "win" for the Twins as your star player could be gone in 3 or 4 years to a potentially bigger deal after he already made a small king's ransom. But it's a way of getting a deal done that might actually make sense and work. I don't know that any comments about stretching out negotiations until January or February shouldn't be taken with a grain of salt. I don't know that you'd expect an agent to say anything else, even though that strategy didn't work out the way they hoped last year. I think Correa is being very open and honest in his desire to remain a Twin. I mean, he's talking to Buxton weekly and was face timing with Twins players during the new uniform unveiling! Assuming the various Twins offers are actually high and truly competitive...not some "well, it's fair and a record high for US"...and Correa likes them and wants to stay, there really would no reason to "hold out". The Twins FO is well respected by agents in general, and they've had a good working relationship with Boras. And I have to think Correa, as a potential Twin again, would appreciate getting things done, if he's happy, so the Twins can move forward with additional moves. Pure speculation on my part, but again, not sure you'd expect an agent to say anything different. And while Correa is definitely their #1 target, Boras also representing their #2 target in Bogaerts helps the Twins change direction if things just get out of hand market wise. I like what I'm hearing. I'm far more optimistic about a reunion with Correa than I was a few weeks ago. I'm also far more optimistic that the Twins are serious about landing ONE of the top 4. But it still remains to be seen if other organizations just blow the lid off the market. Finally, total $ to spend is still in question, and depends some on whether Kepler is kept or moved. That's another $8M+ to add to the budget, potentially. But there's enough open payroll either way for the FO to still ADD and move forward with their plans for 2023 while still leaving that HUGE $ value for a SS add. Waiting and being patient can pay off in the long run at times, but they can't afford to just wait around for another catcher, a RH bat, and maybe a quality SP. I mean, if Kepler IS moved, they've got a potential $70+ M to work with! And Correa, or any other SS, still only takes up a portion of that.
  15. I don't disagree with you at all, except, a fully healthy Mahle might be better than Gray. But we're talking margins as a healthy Gray is a damn fine pitcher! My arguement has been, and continues to be, without extreme luck, every team will need 8-10 SP for double headers and a few muscle pulls and blisters, etc. And SWR and Varland, and HOPEFULLY Balazovic will provide all the depth we need. But there are enough questions about our very hopeful staff that if the FO really and truly intends to compete, you just have to EXPECT that something will go wrong with someone, at some time. And they should invest in someone as good or better than what they have already to make sure they are a serious competitor. Rodon is still my #1 addition to the staff. Risk, yes, but potential reward is very great.
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