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Everything posted by DocBauer

  1. I am with ownership on a slight and gradual increase. The financial disparity is real in MLB and doesn't have to be increased. There should also be a greater and more even revenue sharing amongst the lower revenue teams for greater competitive balance. That's good for the growth of the game. The problem is the owners have to clean up their own dysfunctional, collective house and force those teams to actually spend that revenue share money. And that's where some sort of floor, or floating floor based on revenues or a 2-3 window for a rebuilding team, etc, can be put in to affect. I completely object said floor FORCES teams to add players and salaries just to meet said threshold. Teams wouldn't be FORCED to sign player 'X' just to meet that floor unless they were just bad at doing their jobs. (But that's also why a floating floor might be in place for a team wanting to rebuild). It allows those lower market teams to add an arm in the rotationnor pen, or even a good bench player or two, to just put a better product on the field, even while in a rebuild cycle waiting for prospects. Further, it gives them more flexibility to retain their own players vs having to trade them or let them walk. If you are a lower market team who has money handed to you for your payroll to add and keep and be more competitive and you can't figure out what to do with those extra millions, then your problem is how your organization is run.
  2. Chpettit19 stole my thunder and basically said everything I was going to say. And Maeda and Oddo have to be part of the discussion topic. Those were very good moves. I think context is very important. And while I'm repeating what's already been stated, Happ and Shoemaker...at the time of their signins...were very sound decisions. As was Colome. We have to remember Happ has had a very solid career and was coming off a very good year. Ditto Colome. Shoemaker was a cheap flier with a track record of being good when healthy. He was supposed to be depth and a fill-in option. Where I think the FO has missed the mark is not firmly engaging Berrios earlier for an extension. Now, we don't know all the details or how hard they tried, to just be real. Maybe they were just rebuffed by Berrios despite honest attempts. I also think the one area they need to improve is to target one or two guys they really like and jump in quickly. Their patient strategy has paid some very nice dividends, especially as they have worked so hard to rebuild the entire system from the bottom up, and not just in regard to prospects, but in practice and approach. But there's nothing wrong with identifying someone you like and think fits a real need and just go get them, THEN sit back and see how the market plays out.
  3. Agree on the incentive for some teams to not spend and just pocket their revenue share money. And that's an absolute farce. And that's one if my biggest grudges against ownership right now. The revenue sharing should INCREASE and not DECREASE in order to spread the wealthy and allow for better opportunity for competitive balance. But that's why it's so important to have some kind of financial floor...or floating floor if they simply must...in order to force those teams to actually spend. And again, while I have problems with both sides in these negotiations, it's kind of hard to side with the owners when they don't seem to even have their own collective house in order.
  4. Going to 3rd the idea Kepler shouldn't be on the list. He hasn't become what I thought and hoped he would be, but he's still a solid ballplayer and valuable in many respects. He's young enough where I keep wondering if a slight adjustment here or there might help him take another step and be closer to the 2019 version we were so excited about. Hoping that happens. But I think he's better served hitting lower in the order instead of at the top. Would be nice if he could sit once in a while against LH pitching. Benson, Stewart and Jay are already mentioned but definitely in my group of disappointments. I thought Jay would at least be a quality BP piece. I don't want to list Thorpe as he's still with the Twins and there's still hope he finds a role. But right now, very disappointed.
  5. Next to Petty, Povich is my most intriguing early prospect. (And just because he's a Husker, lol). I could easily see him at 205-210lbs in a year or so and throwing consistently and maintaining 95-ish velocity to go along with his secondary stuff and great control. I think he's a fast riser with some real potential.
  6. Agree with Roger that it's a lot easier to side with the players if they were more interested in competitive pay across the board and a more level playing field for all teams. The proposals I've seen from them seem to do nothing but allow large market teams to keep more money and raise their payroll even higher with no penalty. How does this help the average team, average player or baseball overall? I'm not on the owners side and have more than a few issues with them on regard to more even revenue sharing and forcing small markets to actually spend it vs pocketing it, etc. In regard to the HOF, I believe I'm correct on saying that has nothing to do with MLB. (Unless they're being covert behind the scenes). The voting in or out is up the baseball writers and not MLB. It's my understanding something like 59 new voters have been added over the past 3yrs and both Bonds and Clemmons saw an increase in votes. Eventually they will get in. But it's the HOF and voters that are keeping them out.
  7. Here in Omaha, I'm blessed with reporters/radio hosts that are smart, intelligent and award winning. What that means is they offer up ideas at times I hadn't thought of, OR, had to be reminded of. From a personal perspective, I don't like cheating, whatever any laws might state. But the simple truth is that Bonds and Clemmons were probably HOF players even before enhancement their last few years. And Cooperstown is not about "good guys", it's a museum about baseball that is not affiliated with MLB. Eventually, these guys will be included. And they should be. They're part of history, even if they cheated for their last few years. And while I don't believe you need something as dramatic as a "hall of shame", I think it's OK to put a giant * next to their name explaining their numbers and inducton.
  8. First, I want to be very clear I haven't liked every move the FO has made, or not made, in their tenure. Period! I also want to state very clearly that I understand, appreciate, and even agree with "limited" moves that could have been made by the FO coming off tremendous 20219 and 2020 seasons. Even a single, significant pitching acquisition might have made a difference that would have been tangible. I get the frustration, I really do, as I'm about as devout a Twins fan as you will find, and have been for over 40+ years. Maybe my approach is just different than others, but as a fan my goal is NOT to see my team win a WS every year. First of all, just being realistic and not living in a fantasy land, that's impossible for ANY team in ANY sport, even for the biggest market teams. What you CAN TRY TO DO, best you are able, is put together a competitive team to try and win, reach the playoffs, and see what happens. And while that goal is much easier for the Yankees, Dodgers, etc, than teams like the Twins, it doesn't mean you can't TRY for viability and sustainability knowing full well some years are just not going to be your year. When you read the entire quote as offered by Falvey, nothing he says is wrong or inaccurate in any way. He speaks not only year to year, but also looking down the road. What he doesn't say but clearly implies is; the Twins don't believe in a 1yr window to blow up the payroll and the system through FA and trades for that singular year of hope. They clearly believe in a re-build of the system from the ground floor up and I think we've seen massive and even impressive changes along those lines. They believe in building a structure that allows a team to be competitive yearly...as much as possible...adding here and there when a window seems open...but understanding that not every year is going to have a large window. They also, clearly, don't believe in or want to take a "tank" approach to a re-build. And I like that approach! Now, we can easily agree to disagree in an "all in" 1yr approach. And that's fine. I understand and appreciate that approach. I'm just not personally in favor of blowing it up, waiting through a series of non-compeitive years, rebuild best you can, sign some expensive FA, trade young talent to vacate your system for additional pieces,and hope you win before starting all over again. I want my team to have a great system in place, develop young talent to add/replace on my roster, make some smart trades where and when applicable, and make a strong FA move or two when a window is open. I DO believe that being patient can be smart and advantageous in many ways. But I also think our current FO needs to adjust and BE AGGRESSIVE year to year with an EARLY move that can make a difference. It's very easy, IMO, to look back at each of these seasons and pick apart what worked and didn't work. It's also very easy to second guess what was done and not done at the time. And believe me, I've done that myself. To this moment, I have no real issue with how the FO handled 2021 INITIALLY. I felt really good with Happ as a 1yr 4th SP whose success previously could have seen him jump Pineda as the #3. I had no problem with Shoemaker as a cheap #5 option flier, who has had a limited career as being quite good when healthy, to compete with Dobnak and everyone else to at least begin the season. Hope was that a couple arms, besides the surprising Ober, would make an appearance later in the year. I was excited for Simmons as an outstanding SS with an OK bat to solidify the defense and help the staff. I wanted to spend a little more and keep May over adding Colome, but Colome had been very good and was coming off probably his career year. Again, 20/20 hindsight is different than how the plan was laid out. I want to be very clear I am NOT impressed by what the FO has done this current off-season. Even if they were indeed surprised by how quickly things transpired, they are smart enough and experienced enough to have been able to navigate the deep end of the pool, jump in, and make at least ONE significant FA SP signing to offer greater viability to the staff and any sort of competitive opportunity in 2022. I had hoped for a pair of signings in the 3-4yr range that wouldn't break the bank. I felt doing so would STILL allow the promotion and audition of at least a handful of arms through a full season. So I'm a little frustrated/angry and confused by their approach at this point. Unless they are planning on trading young talent for SP to add...which I find unlikely as they've worked so hard to build up the system for future viability and competition sake...I think the plan all along was to have a couple veteran arms to lead the way and roll through the collection of young arms on hand while having a quality lineup and pen. While I am absolutely not saying the Twins are any sort of contender at this point, I can see this approach potentially leading to an 88-92 win team who would at least have a chance to reach the playoffs. And history has shown...'87 Twins and '21 Braves as a couple examples...that anything could happen. Understand, I have no hopes for that kind of surprise at this moment. BUT, getting back to the original topic, is it too late to make changes? I say no, as long as the lockout doesn't extend too far. We're still 3 weeks from ST and at least they are talking. After that, yes, it will be a frenzy. I hope the FO is prepared to make a couple signings that are at least "decent" in nature and a trade or two that make sense. The one potential "big blow" to future plans is a prolonged interruption that keeps young guys on the 40 man away from the field. And we can never forget that we've had late surprises before. But let's play in Rod Serling's Zone for a moment. There are a few really interesting RP options available to add to the pen to augment a healthy Rogers and company, with a plethora of options to roll through on the front side, to have a quality bullpen. DeJong could be had from the Cardinals on a potentially cheap trade to solidify SS for the sort term, pun only slightly intended. Assuming no major move to sign Rodon, there could be another Maeda/Odorizzi deal to add a solid SP to help lead the staff. They could also add someone like Pineda, or Kikuchi to the staff via FA. Maybe both. One provides some stability and one offers that and some upside still. And there will still be opportunity for the kids. And at least you're offering up what looks like a viable ML rotation. Sorry I'm on a soapbox here, I just felt there was a lot to address. I don't think the FO is done. I believe we will see at least one FA SP and maybe two, barring a trade.. I believe we will see a solid RHRP signed. There wil be someone added to SS so Planco can stick at 2B. I think there is a good chance a 4th OF could be signed, and the potential for a surprise there, but banking on it. There's still time to make additions, whether surprising or OK. But I like the lineup, like the potential of the pen with an addition, and LOVE the idea of seeing ALL the young arms coming up. But somewhere, somehow, there needs to be a veteran arm or two added to this staff.
  9. Sorry, I could end up very wrong, but I think people are really sleeping on Strotman. He's got the frame and velocity and reportedly some solid secondary pitches. He seems to be very bright. A couple of seasons ago he was ranked above Ryan before his TJ. Post surgery, he bypassed AA and was promoted straight to AAA after missing 2020 like so many. But for some reason, he keeps getting viewed as some sort of "throw in" with the Cruz trade. Let's take a moment to look at his AAA stats before the trade: 7-2/ 3.39 ERA/ 58.1 IP/ 50H/ 62K/ 33 BB/ .235 AVG/ 1.42 WHIP. Other than his BB being a bit high, indicating he was struggling a bit with control his first full season back after TJ, AND missing 2020, those are some quality numbers. And his numbers at St Paul were disappointing to say the least. And in an interview with Seth recently he talked about maybe trying too hard to make a impression. Maybe. Good for him to not just make excuses, but there's also the real possibility he was running out of gas after missing so much time, PLUS adjusting and moving to a new organization. IF he was an original Twins prospect, and then had an injury like Winder and Duran, etc, and only flashed his 1st half numbers, I think most most of us would be clamoring for him as one of the 1st up options. Recency bias to end 2021 should not be used against Strotman. I think he could be a real surprise in 2022.
  10. P.S. Butterscotch and caramel are BOTH outstanding. They might be even better when mixed with chocolate at times. So I'm not sure there is a winner there. Does it matter considering how good each is?
  11. I don't think there's any question the young pitching group is the most interesting, and for all the obvious reasons. A couple will be traded, a couple will wash out, a couple will end up in the pen, (and there are a couple interesting RP who aren't exactly TOP prospects by the very nature of being RP), and at least a couple will make it as solid to excellent rotation pieces. I do not, and will not, predict anyone for ACE status. With little exception, an ACE type SP develops over a few years, they aren't just drafted and promoted. And it's virtually impossible to speculate who on any list MIGHT become such, including us current prospect list. But ignoring some of the recent draftees who hold potential, it's not hard to look at Ryan, Ober, Duran, Winder, Balazovic and Canterino as a collection of guys who can be in the solid to very good category, or beyond with hope. But if we want to expand on this idea a little bit, should we consider breaking down the option of "position player" ? FWIW, and if anyone wants to follow suite, I'd break down my personal interest as such, in reverse order: 3] CATCHER: Do we still consider Jeffers and/or Rortvedt as prospects? Considering age and experience, I think we might, especially in regard to Rortvedt. Beyond them is a collection of lower level guys who have some interesting potential but there is nobody to really single out. 2] OUTFIELD: Kirilloff, Larnach, Celestino, Wallner at the upper levels and Rodriguez, Urbina and Rosario at the lower levels allow for a great combination of immediate help and hope and some intriguing future options. 1] INFIELD: To me, this is the #2 category of interest for me. (And yes, Kirilloff could be included here as well). I'm interested and excited to varying degrees about this position. Does Gordon turn out to be a speedy, OK hitter with some pop who can play almost anywhere as a fill-in? He might. Martin could end up at 2B...doubt it with Polanco...maybe 3B...but we have Miranda, MIGHT SURPRISE and sow he can actually be a SS, but might find his home at LF as a "do everything well" player at the top of order for years who can cover CF and even cover the infield. He might also turn out to be a younger and better "play everywhere" super utility player similar to Marwin Gonzalez. Lewis has the arm and athleticism, IMO, to be a MLB SS. Having to polish his play on standard plays, IMO, just comes with time and repetition. He needs to be healthy, play, develop, and make the bat and all that talent work. Oh, and then there's Miranda who could be the 3B for the next 10yrs, potentially, and the Twins need to find rom for him NOW. Beyond these options are Steer, and slightly behind him, Julien. Steer could be a super utility fielder, if not a starter, as early as the end of 2022. He can also play at least a little SS. Julien is similar, but with a slightly different profile, who could be ready in 2023 at some point. BTW, Severino could be one of the biggest risers in the entire system come the end of 2022. So YES, pitching ranks as a clear #1 interest/intrigue point. But if you want to break down the "rest" of interest, INFIELD is #2 for me.
  12. I think he's going to be a relatively slow riser making steady yearly progress. He sure sounds like a good all around athlete with the ability to stick at SS. I think the key for him will be adding some muscle/power to his bat without outgrowing the position physically.
  13. A great article Matt, and well thought out and debated. But I think we have to define what is meant by "career" in this debate. Even if we ignore the greater longevity of Carew...and mnfireman did an interesting 12yr breakdown between the two...his numbers are just better than Puckett's. And then you factor in similar accolades PLUS the longevity and I'd have to say Carew was better. But if we talk about "career" as reaching the mountain top in the sport and individual accomplishment...despite it still being a team game...then Puckett had the better career as he reached and won the WS twice. So in that sense he had the better "career" by reaching that pinnacle. They are both outstanding ballplayers to say the least.
  14. I'm with MN_ExPat. I am a fan and supporter of baseball and want it healthy and growing and being the best it can be. Even now, my "SIDE" is baseball and not the owners or players. But at some point I have to shake my head at the owners. I fully appreciate that it's a business. I would NEVER tell a business owner you shouldn't make money, or lose money, just to put your product out there. But the overall product of MLB is better with competition and excitement for the various fan bases. That excitement allows for growth, which means even MORE MONEY coming in! It's basic business sense. And one of the best things they can do is share the wealth more evenly to create better competition, in other words, a more equitable playing field for all. But I can understand some large market teams hesitant for greater profit sharing because they haven't created a FLOOR that basically forces smaller market teams to spend vs pocketing money shared. So they aren't holding THEMSELVES in check! And while I support the players on a higher annual pay scale, greater yearly guaranteed increases, and some sort of earlier FA for players who reach the league at an older age, I simply can't condone a pervasive attitude about increasing the luxury tax threshold and a universal earlier FA status that caters to the high market teams. It absolutely feels as though they want to cater to the top 20% and let everyone else in their union fend for themselves. Shouldn't they be more concerned about the competitive nature of the game they play, the growth of their profession, and greater financial benefits for their entire union? I don't see an easy answer here only because basic logic seems to be thrown put the window on both sides. And Manfred, being employed by the owners, doesn't have enough love for the game, common sense, or brass, to just remind or inform the owners that they have the ability to make this all work if they just "balance" their own portion of financial responsibility in regard to the health of the game. I'm not on the side of the players for some of the demands they have made. But I think the onus is on ownership to put something together that makes sense for both sides and the good of the game.
  15. Good, bad, right, or wrong, push has come to shove and the Twins have to either package a bunch of arms in deals, OR, they have to start pitching and auditioning these kids for now and the future. And I think we know which way they're going to go. And I'm OK with that, it's got to be done. We might even surprise a lot of pundits, and ourselves, and actually have an OK year piecing it all together. I still think they will sign at least one additional FA arm, maybe two, because it's a long season, presumedly, and we need IP. BTW, nice to have you back Brian! Missed ya dude!
  16. I have to confess I forgot to list Ober in my post, but only because I was thinking he's "made it" at this point and not a "prospect" only because he no longer qualifies as a rookie. So that was me placing a qualifier on him. But adding him to the conversation, and he should be, onlybre-affirms my position on the numbers who will meet your criteria. And I like your breakdown of two groupings. One so very close and another too far away right now but talented and worth speculating on. Concerning the 2nd group, Hajjer and Povich could sky rocket being high selections and college pitchers. Enlow will obviously need a little time to get healthy and re-established again. Not sure what I might be missing on Sands. So many have him penciled in as a bullpen piece but he's been getting the job done in the rotation each and every year. I found it very interesting during the last Gleeman and the Geek podcast that Aaron had heard Raya looked terrific coming out of instructs. Lastly, I'm higher on Strotman than most. He was actually ranked higher than Ryan in the Ray's system before his injury. Post TJ he skipped AA and went straight to AAA. That's pretty significant. His control was a little off, as might be expected, but his overall performance was quite good. Now, was he trying to hard to prove himself to the Twins post trade, or was he running out of gas? Hard to say. But he's got the frame, mid to upper 90's velocity with at least decent offerings. I could easily be wrong, but I've just got a feeling he's going to surprise us this year.
  17. I have no issue with his prospect "ranking" dropping because it won't make a bit of difference to him or the Twins. Especially when he makes it. But to put everything in perspective, I believe he played most of 2019 with an injury. I want to say an ankle but can't recall completely. The Twins still thought enough of him to promote him just after mid season. And while he never hit well, he was healthy and ready to go in the AFL where he was the MVP, flashing his potential. I don't know if anyone really knows what he looked like in 2020 over in St Paul but I have yet to hear anything negative. So he was still working and scrimaging with coaches and teammates instead of playing Xbox, as someone referenced. The bad knee before 2021 hurts and slows his development down. But despite no milb season in 2020, he still put in the work. I don't know when he'll be ready, but I fly expect that he WILL make it. And it could be as early as 2023, with a chance of a late 2022 debut. I could care less about anyone's public ranking of him.
  18. About Duran specifically, while he might indeed end up in the pen, after a missed 2020 and elbow issues in 2021...quite possibly due to the lost 2020...baby the guy and his arm all you have to in order to stretch him out and ap him back up. He's not old. His arm is special and his stuff can be filthy. Give him all of this season if you have to, but you absolutely keep him in the rotation.
  19. I said 8-9 and not just because I'm a homer and eternal optimist. I chose that due to the number of viable arms in the system, and because eventually a couple of them will be traded to other teams and probably have some success elsewhere. Additionally, a couple will meet the criteria as RP. MLR, love the post and I think your criteria is fair. But in addition to "how many" we could also discuss a list of "most likely". Granted, that's hard due to some very interesting arms only drafted the last couple of years and delays from covid, etc, just saying it might be interesting to discuss "best bets" as far as we can speculate. I like Ryan a lot, though I'm not sure yet if he rises above being a #3. I disagree his delivery is a problem. I think it's just "different" wich is also part of what makes him so successful despite average velocity. I think Winder and Balazovic have the stuff, and the build, to be stalwarts. How good could they be? I NEVER predict ANYTHING like ACE potential because it's just bogus to do so. History has shown flame outs and guys you never expected to be an ACE becoming such after a few years of experience. But I would say these 2 have a real chance to be top of the order arms. PURE STUFF in the system belongs to Duran, Canterino and the way too young to even talk about Petty. IMO, we simply can't dismiss 2020 affecting 2021 and be woeful in regard to injuries suffered by pitchers. ALL teams were affected at both the ML AND the milb level. At this point there is zero reason to believe Duran and Canterino are injury risks. How about they just have a "normal" off-season now and see what 2022 brings? As talented as they both are, I'm 100% OK if the Twins "baby" them a bit initially. Cantrino has a very strange windup. I get that. But he states it's comfortable,repeatable, and it produced a great college career. For now, I'm accepting of what he says and waiting to see what this season brings. At WORST, these 2 provide a high ceiling as BP arms IF their delivery/arms force such a move. I think Sands just might surprise us all. He just keeps doing well and keeps getting the job done. Vallimont's control, and WHIP, were much better in 2019 than 2021. His K rates are great and his stuff is nasty. That's why he was protected. Just how good might he be if the 2019 version is closer to his potential? Granted, he's a wild card in this conversation as a SP or RP or flameout. But he's got an arm! SWR is just so young, and promoted so quickly, but is and has been so highly regarded as a prospect with so much potential, who cares if he needs 2yrs to arrive? Strotman is a guy I'm focusing on. He throws mid to upper 90's and seems to have some solid secondary pitches. He's been promoted aggressively after his TJ. His AAA numbers before the Twins acquired him were very solid. He's confessed he was still working on some things and maybe tried too hard to impress his new team after the trade. He was NOT a "throw in" with Ryan in the Cruz trade. I'm going to stop here before I get in to the next 5-7 options including Varland, Gipson-Long, Laweryson, etc, our top draftees from 2021, etc. And I haven't touched on BP options such as Moran, Gore, etc. I don't need to. Not everyone will make it, much less make a difference or meet the OP criteria. But the depth and number of options to "make a difference" and meet the listed criteria tells me at least 8-9 will do so. We should be very excited about what's coming up the next couple of years, and what they might become, IMHO.
  20. I'm still really confused about Petty's draft slot, though I am super pleased we got him. He seems to compare favorably to Greene coming out of HS ball, but was selected over 20 picks later. IIRC, Greene might have had a little bigger frame when selected. Is that the only reason? Really pleased but puzzled Petty lasted as long as he did, despite the inherent risk that comes with a HS arm. I completely agree with jmlease1 that in addition to perfecting his change, what he has to work on most is learning how to "pitch". And I think that's something a lot of people forget when looking at velocity and sweeping breaking balls and high K rates. Pitching is still an art form to be learned, how to approach and set up hitters, etc. It's not pure stuff. I wouldn't be surprised if he spends all of 2022 at Ft Myers. I also wouldn't be surprised if he spent a month at Cedar Rapids to end the season, especially if the change starts to round in to form. I also wouldn't be surprised if he spends some time in 2023 between A+ and AA working on a 4th offering, a cutter or splitter perhaps, to play off that FB and slider. Even if it was an occasional "show me" pitch, any sort of 4th offering, even mediocre, could really confuse batters.
  21. I'm happy with all 3 choices and think all are very deserving. Gladden, IMO, brought more to the team than defense and some solid but not incredible numbers. He brought hustle, spirit, and a bit of an edge that I think really helped propel both WS teams. (Personally, I like him as the color guy on the radio even if his play by play is a little rough.) I know some are a little down on Gardy and I'm not going to belabor any of the points I've heard before. While he was in charge of some bad teams, I'm not sure how some of those poor teams are his fault. Further, he was the man in charge of some very good, winning, playoff teams. He never got us to the WS, and a few injuries didn't help. The FO might have made a difference if they had added even a couple more depth pieces as well. But I can't deny the success so many of his teams had. I didn't always like everything he said or did, but I can't argue with those good seasons. He was still the man in charge for those good years. Tovar probably should have been in already.
  22. I want to say Puckett. I loved what he did on the field and his smile and love for the game and the energy he played with. I listened to his debut on the radio and have loved Kirby since day one. But there is just something about Hrbek, the local kid who did good, the outstanding 1B who never got the love he deserved for his defense, or his consistency, who ALWAYS produced in a quiet way that makes him my all time favorite. FWIW, Puckett is a super close #2 with Hunter and Cuddyer tied for #3.
  23. I am OK with the Bundy signing, and was when I'm pretty sure I mentioned somewhere along the line a couple months ago as a flier candidate. I expect no magic and I doubt he will be the 2020 version of himself. But if he can be a mixture of his best Orioles days and 2020, we have a solid #3 who will pitch better than that some days. But I'm just not excited. I don't think Dobnak is done. He FLEW through the system in 2019 before hitting the ML level and looked like he belonged. He was quite good in 2020 and helped stabilize the staff for about 3/4 of that abbreviated season before a bad game where he got squeezed and the defense let him down. IIRC, I want to say he had a slight injury and wasn't quite the same and was sent out. Still not sure I understand his having a great 2021 ST but being squeezed out. I think that was a big mistake that he he never had time to recover from. He didn't seem comfortable as a RP, but did well at St Paul before being promoted again and then getting hurt. I remain totally confused if his new slider was an illusion that was quickly figured out, or was he hurting before officially being injured, or did he just never get in a groove before being injured due to his bouncing around? Combination of all 3?? I agree he could get passed by quickly with all the young arms on the rise, many of which we will see in 2022. But I think he's smart enough, bulldog enough, and has enough stuff to be an OK, solid backend SP without his "new" slider. But I have to see him do it again at this point. But I haven't given up on him yet. Cotton is a mystery man I wasn't crazy about when they got him. Of course, I knew nothing about him. Then I dug in to his history, his stuff and rankings, his injuries, and his "rebirth" as a RP for Texas in AAA and how he finished 2021 in their pen. My first thought then was, why on earth did they let him walk? Healthy again, he's got the stuff to be a legitimate pen option. Now I read discussion he might be a SP sleeper candidate. Maybe. It would be a huge stretch at this point in his career, IMO. There comes a time when certain things just pass you by. I believe he has reached the point in his career where he has a chance to be a quality middle man who can go 1-3IP and be effective but that's probably his ceiling. Of course, he could also be an opener depending on how the Twins approach their 2022 season, but the job is pretty much the same. I honestly can't rank these 3. I believe all of them could "bounce back" to actually contribute, but all in different ways. I think Cotton gets ML time, but the Twins are going to rotate arms all season long for audition and usage sake. That's not necessarily a bad thing. But it's up to Cotton to show enough and prove enough he should STAY up. We need GS and IP. Unless the FO surprises or dazzles us with moves, they will probably add at least one mediocre SP, maybe two. I keep thinking Pineda and either Tyler Anderson or Kikuchi. (For the record, I'm far more interested in Kikuchi and some untapped potential). Even then, there is going to be a lot of opportunity to promote and audition about 10 young arms across the season in various roles. (Starters and relievers). Bundy has ML experience and an uneven portfolio. And his 2nd year option is a "if the light comes on" option and nothing more. Make no mistake about that. Dobber is younger, cheaper, and may have as much upside right now. Twist my arm, I'd pick Dobnak over Bundy as the better bounce back option.
  24. While RP can indeed just lose it all of a sudden, Rogers is still only 31yo and shown no loss of velocity and never has had any major injury that I can recall. I'd like to think his finger is going to be OK and he'll be his old self again. And that old self is someone I think has another 2-3 really good seasons left. Still, I just can't extend him until I see him throw and feel the finger is going to hold up.
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