DocBauer

Napkin roster construction and payroll approximates: 1] TWO solid FA RP...1 RH, 1 LH...$20-22M. We'll go high. 2] Bauers at 1B $12-13M. Again, we'll go high. Post FA departures and moving on from Larnach, Ober, and Lewis, payroll sits approximately $100M. $100M ÷ $22M + $13M = $135M. 3] Add a versatile INF to replace Lewis, or keep Lewis and hope he accepts the role of utility (unless he proves worthy of more) $3-5M. 4] Jackson as #2 catcher or similar FA option, or possible trade for someone like Henry Davis from Pittsburgh (examples like this have been offered previously) $2-3M. $135M + $5M + $3M = $140M Twins 2023 payroll FOUR YEARS ago: $157M Expected AVERAGE ML payroll for 2027, approximately $180M plus. So we're talking $17M LESS than payroll FOUR YEARS ago, and $40M less than the expected AVERAGE ML payroll for 2027. If Jeffers really loved Minnesota and being a Twin...and his family felt the same...he could approach the Twins on a deal of 3yrs and $45M and see what they say. By all reasonable expectations and projections, he's going to get an offer of at least 3 for $45. The QO is $22M. MLB contracts are guaranteed. So unless he is thinking about retiring after 2027, or really, really wants to stay a Twin for at least one more season, why on earth would he take $23M instead of $45M plus? Or even 3.and $36-39M? You offer the QO, get a draft pick, and you end up with...I believe...5 of the top 100 selections. (3 team selections and 2 comp picks, IIRC). What are the actual odds of Jeffers taking the QO and saying NO to a larger, guaranteed payday? But let's say for some reason he does. $140M plus $20M (factoring in $3M already accounted for) equals $160M. That's only $3M more than 2023, and STILL a good $20M less than the expected ML average for 2027. And come 2028, you've got $33M coming OFF the payroll. There really should be no "risk" factor in offering Jeffers the QO.

I think it's a mistake to leave Quick and Bohorquez out of the equation. And if Matthews isn't part of the rotation, I'd expect him on the pen. I'd absolutely love to see Rojas as a quality SP. But until I see him stretched out to at least 5 successful IP most days in 2027, I'm going to be on him for the pen. I like Tinney as our 1B and #3 catcher.

Very disappointed in both Lares and Dunn. But maybe they're just working on something specific and the numbers don't really matter?? I'd like to see Maldonado. He was showing promise in the low minors before missing 2025 due to injury. He didn't have a very good 2026, so it's nice to see him off to a good start in the AFL.

Abreu remains my #1 choice based on age, past performance, and experience in big moments. I'm also a fan of Phillips the more I read about him. (Just wasn't very familiar previously). He's a little older, but he responded very well in his comeback from TJ. And with a "new" elbow, I wouldn't have a problem offering him a 2 year deal. Abreu also for that matter. One RH to either set up Hoffman, or take over the closer role Andover Hoffman to set up really changes the complexion/depth of the pen. There's a handful of LH options I like, but I think the top 2 are off the board for the Twins. Honestly, I'd be very happy to have Minter back for another year.

The primary OF for 2027 will/should be Rodriguez, Buxton, Jenkins, and Keaschall. They will all four play most days between the 3 OF spots and DH. The 5th OF...quasi 4th OF...should be Roden. And he should also be worked as a backup 1B to increase his roster flexibility. (Guys get hurt and also need days off). Roden is the better player over Martin...IMO...and RHP still makes up 70-75% of the league. Because he has no options, I'm betting on Kreidler as the Super Utility option. And he can provide a RH OF option if you really want. I'm hoping Ross eventually replaces him as he plays the exact same spots, is younger, and would seem to have a better offensive profile. But that also includes the ability to play OF. I just don't see the need to keep a 3rd RH OF just because he is, when he's only got a mediocre/questionable bat. Martin should be deprh at St Paul unless they just decide to move on.

Bo Naylor on a bounce back season anyone?

Jow

Only 1 week in, but a mostly good start for the Twins prospects. I don't know if it's poor bat to ball skills or just not enough muscle to drive the ball, but if DeBarge could actually start HITTING the ball he could be a nice addition to the Twins in the next year or so.

Not crazy about the winter theme for a summer sport. I don't see anything with another Minnesota team doing a Prince themed uniform. Just have to make sure on a sleeve there is a cloud with some purple rain drops falling. I also like the brewery/Grain Belt idea without being a billboard. Can we fit Hamms colors in their as well? Wisconsin isn't the only upper Midwest state known for beer brewing. I also wonder about a uniform that would have subtle variations of brown/tan and green with some blue accents fit in somewhere to celebrate the summer outdoors in general. These colors would work together to celebrate nature and still hint at the lakes.

I don't think it's as easy as Nick states in the OP. There certainly have been examples of the Twins not developing certain arms that found success elsewhere, but in some of those cases, the failure might be more on the FO than coaching. Would Megill have been better if they had just kept him longer? Or did the Brewers simply unlock something the Twins were unable to do? Pressly had already developed in to a good reliever for the Twins. (I didn't want him traded). Do we really know that he wouldn't have been just as good the next season if he had remained a Twin? Hoffman had a decent, though not great camp with the Twins. He had some helium and the Twins talked him up. But they decided to go the "safe" route by keeping a different arm instead of Hoffman's potential. Cutting Henriquez and Headrick were just very poor roster management and no vision for the future. Especially in the case of Headrick. This isn't an organization who has had a lot of LH depth the past few years. Varland was already on his way to becoming a very good reliever. So again, do we know he wouldn't have been just as good with the Twins in 2026? I am not, and will not absolve the Twins for failing to develop some arms to their potential. But there must also be a proper perspective here. The team turned Duran, Jax, and Thielbar in to high quality relievers. Weren't they the ones who also developed Pressly and Varland to begin with? They developed Ryan in to an All Star. They've improved Bradley to having his best season. (If he hadn't been rushed back from his injury, his season might have been even better). They turned a late round selection in Ober to a fine #3 rotation arm. Again, not going to say the Twins haven't failed in some cases, or that they can't do better. But the biggest problem here, IMO, has been continued poor roster management by the FO. Keeping Pressly for a team that had a chance to compete the next season was a huge mistake. Trading Varland was seemingly a major mistake. Once again, did their new teams make them better? Or might they have been just as good the following seasons had they remained a Twin? I mean, Varland had a single full season as a reliever. Pressly was on an upswing. IMO, the problem wasn't development, it was trading a talented arm too soon they should have kept. Henriquez showed some potential but wasn't kept as a young arm for the future. Exactly the same for Headrick. He showed potential, the Twins were short of LH options, but they just removed him from the 40 man. Why? And why not bet on Hoffman's potential when they publicly stated they liked what they saw? And let me add they just let Coulombe leave for nothing to sign elsewhere when he had performed well for them. Again, why? You can't talk about proposed failures and not talk about the equal success stories as well. And you can't dismiss that some arms that appear to have done better elsewhere were originally developed by the Twins, and might have been just as.good if they had been kept. I guess there's no way to ever know. But I believe what we DO know is that in most/all of these cases, the greatest error is on the personel choices made by the FO where they ignored upside and potential far too often for what felt like a "safe" choice, even if it was an arm without upside.

I liked Roden's approach when he first came up, even though the results weren't immediate. He sure looked pretty good later in the season. I believe he's a ML ballplayer. Nothing wrong with him as the Twins #5 OF. LF/CF/RF/DH will MOST days be handled by Rodriguez, Buxton, Jenkins, and Keaschall. That makes Roden almost a defacto 4th OF. All 4 of those guys will need full days off once in a while. And even with good health, we'll probably see a couple IL stints here and there. Roden is quality insurance and quality depth. I believe he played something around 40-50 games at 1B in college. So unless he just stinks at it, why not get him a glove and let him get some time there and work at it during the offseason. It just increases his versatility to help the team. There's definitely room for him on the 2027 Twins.

Buxton, Keaschall, Jenkins, and Rodriguez are all ahead of him and part of the future. Larnach is not. And they also have Roden or Martin for the #5 spot, (I like Roden), and the other on St Paul in reserve. Behind that group is Gonzalez, Mendez, and Rosario for depth. (Unless involved in a trade). Larnach has some value, just not with the Twins at this point. The Astros thought enough of him to offer a quality pen arm at the deadline before the owner called it off. Arizona is reportedly looking for LH bats. The moment the season is over, get on the phones and move him for whatever you can. An approximate $6.5M for a LH DH/part time OF is not expensive to most teams that have need for someone like him. Maybe a hard throwing AA arm with a nasty 2nd pitch who's ready for a move to the pen? Maybe a multi position utility player who just doesn't figure to start but could help a team? But please, don't offer him arbitration with the idea of trading him after the lockout. It's a fools errand where you might get "stuck" with a player who doesn't fit your roster. Trade him ASAP or cut bait. Don't handcuff yourself.

I like the idea of a trade for Bush...assuming he's available...but I wonder what the cost would be? I'd also be interested in Kyle Stowers from the Marlins as a less expensive option. He'll be 29yo next season and is a bit of a late bloomer having finally established himself in 2025. He wasn't as good in 2026, but still had an OPS of .789 and an OPS+ of .121. I love the idea of signing FA Brandon Lowe and keeping our prospects. I suppose it would be obvious to move Clemens to 1B at that point. But would it be better to move the 32/33yo Lowe to 1B and keep Clemens at 2B? We've had 5' 10" 1B before...even shorter...and with success. It might even prolong his career a bit, and it would allow a smoother transition for Clemens to move back to a daily utility role when Houston comes up to take over SS and bring on the Lee/Culpepper to 2B debate. (I'd keep Lee at 3B).

I had a 10 game variance of 75 wins as the bottom end and 85 wins at the top. And that was after the Pablo injury as I still liked the initial depth. I had thought a .500 team the first few months, until the pen rounded in to form...couple signings, couple internal options, deadline trade or two...and then better after some of the younger talent started to spark the team a bit and help the team speed and defense. The high of 85 wins was based a lot on Wallner and Lewis who I was convinced would both be high .700 OPS players at minimum. I just saw a Wallner rebound and a healthy Lewis taking another step. Boy was I wrong about that!

One thing that hurt the team a lot last season besides a poorly assembled roster was a lack of depth. I think they really missed Castro, or someone similar. Before the major payroll cuts, the Twins had some nice depth pieces like Gonzalez, Farmer, and even Solano, who was intended as a depth piece before he basically took over 1B. (I'm not necessarily speaking about SS depth. Rather, someone to bring valuable depth at a number of positions). Royce could be a very nice fit as a versatile depth option, even if his OPS was 15 points in the negative, while 90-100 OPS would be preferable. He can play an OK defense at 1B/2B/3B to give guys days off, help against LHP, or provide a temporary fill in when someone is injured. And that role could be worth $5M. Again, I'd like to see a somewhat better OPS than he's had the past 3yrs, but he could be a nice depth option. And MAYBE you get lucky and something finally sparks in him. But I just don't see Lewis accepting that role. I think he still believes himself to be a starting player. And that's just not going to work for either party here. 90-ish games of being a quality player, and 300-ish games over 2 1/2 years of being a below average player does not make him a starting player. I think it's in the best interest for bith parties to move on. Lewis for a fresh start somewhere else. And for the Twins to find a different player to assume that versatile depth role that is missing on the roster.

Another big loser was almost every pitcher drafted on 2025. All but a few either began the season on the IL and missed a good deal of time, or they ended up on the IL after a few appearances.

I think what Ober did this season as an old school "crafty" SP was borderline amazing, and definitely fun to watch. But I am just not of the belief that he can do it again. If this was some of the Twins rotations we had in the teens, I'd probably keep him and cross my fingers. In many of those years, they had few good options. But currently, we have Lopez, Ryan, Bradley, Abel, Prielipp, Matthews, and Kremer. And it's not like you can just "collect" arms and stash them on some mystery roster in case you need them. They have to be rostered. I don't like the idea of sending Abel, Prielipp, or Matthews down just because they have options and you can. And I don't see Ober and his 88mph FB in the bullpen, especially at $7M. I'd much rather that $7M be part of a resigning of Minter for the bullpen. (Betting $7-8M would get it done). Is there a team out there really short on SP options that could see taking a shot on Ober as a smart play for the back end of their rotation? I'm sure there are. Baltimore comes to mind. So maybe there is possible trade value for Bailey to someone. But with all due respect to him and how much he's meant to the Twins in the past, it's time to move on.

Sorry Ober fans...and I'm one of them...but if it's $7M for him as a pen option, or $7-8M to resign Minter, I'm going with Minter. And I just can't see a 90MPH Ober in the pen for $7M. I would absolutely make an offer to Banda. He's not great, but he'd be really solid as the #2 LH in the pen. And for only $2.3M why would we even need to debate it? $1.2-1.3M for Nance and/or Sands is really cheap for a pair of decent middle men. And like Topa this past season...signed for similar $...either would be an easy cut if you're not happy. Now, if they sign ANOTHER RP of quality besides Minter, I can see not offering Nance. But if you can stash Sands at St Paul, again, why wouldn't you sign him for so cheap? I just think it's time to move on from Larnach. He's not a bad ballplayer, and he's got some value, but not at $6-7M as a part time player for an OF that has Buxton, Jenkins, Rodriguez, and Keaschall already penciled in. The Twins might like him as insurance, but I wouldn't do it. The $ can be better spent elsewhere. I'd keep Lewis for $5M as a utility player at 1B/2B/3B/PH. I want someone like that on the team for better depth. And maybe we get lucky and something actually clicks for him in 2028. But I don't see him accepting that role. I think he still sees himself as a starter. And both he and the team are probably better with a parting of ways. The Twins find someone else for that bench role, and Lewis gets a fresh start.

First of all, the Twins need to build a 13 man roster where EVERYONE can actually bring something to the team. All 13 spots are valuable. Secondly, they need to actually USE all 13 players in a constructive way conducive to the building of that roster. Currently we have no real clue who is going to play 1B. Hopefully it's an upgrade via trade since FA looks questionable at this point. But if we look at the roster as it stands now, we have a LH catcher (FWIW), 2 LH INF, 2 LH OF, plus 2 RH OF, 1 RH INF, and a probable backup RH bat at C and SU. So there's still room to add a 1B and 2nd utility player who could be RH, but that's TBD. All of that to say I don't think the 5th OF necessarily has to be RH or LH. They just need to be a decent ballplayer who can help the ballclub. I just don't see enough value in Martin. IDK if Gonzalez or Mendez are ready, and they need to play daily. So unless they add someone else, I think Roden is the best fit. And I'm also a believer in bench players having versatility to increase their value to the team. So absolutely he should be working out at 1B. I was pushing for that last offseason to increase his flexibility. Someone needs to be able to play 1B on a backup basis. And if you aren't a primary starter, you need as many ways as possible to help the team. Roden finishing the season strong hopefully means he's ready to stick at the ML level. Being able to play some 1B increases his value. The obvious answer to the OP is YES he should.

I was generally impressed with everything he did, and I can understand his underlying numbers indicating he probably pitched better than his ERA would suggest. It's certainly what my eyes told me. All pitchers have bad days. I expect a rookie/inexperienced pitcher to have more. He definitely had a few that were of his own accord. But a couple of them also happened when he was left in too long a couple of times. First time I saw that new curveball was a ST game and while he was still working on his command, it sure looked NASTY. I don't really know what to do about his fastball. Is it more of a sequencing issue? Or could he adjust his grip for a little more movement? Love that he answered the bell each time it was rung, and he seemed to finish the season with gas still in the tank. A little more experience and some tweak to his fastball and I think they have a legitimate top of the rotation lefty.

He came in to 2026 at only 25yo and with what amounts to almost 1 1/2 years of ML time, but not quite. He had a poor rookie debut. He was still not good in 2025, but he was definitely improved. Now, in his second full season, he has improved his entire offensive profile over his previous 1 1/2 season's numbers. Run, hits, DBLs, HR, RBI, AVG, OB, SLG, OPS, and OPS+ were ALL improved. Heck, he even had career highs in Trips and SB, FWIW, lol. And he looked at home at 3B, and went from a poor defender at SS to a solid if not above average defender on the hot corner. And I understand some underlying metrics don't paint a rosy picture. Except, reality is he's continued to get better. And who knows, maybe he's just a 1st round washout and this is as good as it gets. But I'm betting not. And I'm betting the 2027 version of him will be as good, and probably even a little better now that he's found a comfortable home on the INF, and has another year of experience under his belt.

#1 priority is a quality 1B. That stabilizes the INF, and the lineup, and maybe takes a little pressure off some of the young guys. Lewis just doesn't hit except for brief stretches, and hasn't hit for 3 years now. As I've stated elsewhere, we could trade for a 1B. But it's also possible there could be a 3B that would just be better at 1B, or an OF with 1B experience who could be moved there permanently. So FA and trade are both possibilities here. #2 priority is the bullpen. I actually have faith in some of the arms there, and hopes for a couple others, but we simply need more. I'd say resigning Minter should be a priority. He's not what he once was, but he's still good. And then add another high velocity, late inning arm. Banda, Minter, and Funderburk from the LH side and Hoffman, Morris, Gomez, and player X is a really solid foundation. #3 priority is another solid bench option for better roster depth. It was really nice having guys like Farmer, Gonzalez, and Solano as good role players to deepen the roster. Castro was also that guy. Lewis could be valuable, even at $5M, playing 1B/2B/3B in that role. But I don't see him accepting it as he believes he's a starter still, IMO. Time to part ways for both sides and find a solid option to fill this role. #4 priority is catcher. Why so low? Because Caratini is going to cost $10M no matter what, so he's not going anywhere. And despite his poor arm and very questionable bat...maybe it rebounds?...he's still a knowledgeable, veteran presence behind the plate. The only way to improve here is if they can find someone better overall than Jackson and perhaps he takes over the #1 spot for 2027. That's about the only way we see change/improvement here. (I'm not expecting Jeffers to accept the QO if offered). #5 option would be a veteran OF for the #5 spot. Not a priority, but a consideration. Considering the probable make-up of the 2027 roster, I don't know that it matters if the #5 OF is RH or LH. But 5 OF are going to fill 4 spots most days when we include the DH. I'd like to shoot higher than Martin for this role. But I'm not sure I want Mendez or Gonzalez if they aren't going to play regularly. So maybe adding another experienced, solid veteran bat would be good for depth and the OF/DH rotation? Again, not a priority, but an interesting consideration. There's going to be a lot more youth on the 2027 Twins, with a few more debuting at some point. These proposed moves add a missing 1B, and strengthens the pen and the bench. But they also don't block anyone long term or interfere with playing time for the young players.

Perhaps the Twins next long term starting catcher and 1B?

With expected "loses" but adding projected arbitration increases and the such, the payroll sits about $100-105M entering the offseason. I believe that includes Lewis as well. It's true the team is going to have a large number of inexpensive players, many on the minimum, for next season. That's a positive for the payroll, and the future. But back to the $130-135M level they were at to begin 2025 is the BARE MINIMUM for Pohlad to be taken at all seriously. But where SHOULD the target be set? I'm agreeing with @Czelgertthat $150M-ish SHOULD be the minimum target. But the LAST THING I want them to do is to spend for the sake of spending and put together a roster that doesn't make sense! Personally, I think a quality 1B is #1 on the shopping list. I don't care if he comes via trade or FA. It could be a solid 1B in a trade, or a 3B who would simply be better at 1B, or an OF with 1B experience who moves there permanently. I'm speculating that 1B would cost around $15-18M. No problem, plenty of $ for that. And it also means you don't need to add a BAT ONLY DH who crowds the whole rest of the lineup/roster when you want to run through your primary 4 OF at the spot, and half days off for some of your INF as well. THEN, position player wise, I want a utility player with a solid bat who can play 1B/2B/3B with a decent glove and decent bat. Just a good, well rounded player who can fill in at all 3 spots. (The ability to play some OF would only be a bonus, not a prerequisite). Think Marwin Gonzalez or a better version of Solano a few years ago. Or a slightly different version of Farmer. And Royce could be PERFECT for that spot at around $5M. And I'm NOT insulting his character in any way, but I just don't believe he would accept that role. I believe he still sees himself as a "starter" but the numbers say NO over the past 3 years. But it would a perfect fit if he were to accept that role until/unless he suddenly raises his game. I believe Lewis should be moved for his sake, and for the team's sake. A new start for both. But I STILL want a similar player to fill that bench role as a very valuable reserve. And I'm still OK paying $5M for a FA or trade option to fill it. It's actually a very valuable role for season long depth we HAVE HAD, but didn't have in 2026. NEXT, I'd pursue a resign of Minter. He's not the same pitcher he was when he got his crazy $11M per deal. And he's older now as well. But he also still knows how to pitch, and has done well with the Twins. Personally, I don't have a problem with 3 LH options in the pen. Some teams have a hard time finding one. And arms get injured. THREE solid LHRP is a nice luxury to have. If the market doesn't go crazy, I'd expect him to sign for $5M to $7M TOPS. But it's also been interesting the last few offseasons how many solid, veteran arms have been signed for less than projections. It's a very positive idea that young arms like Raya, and CJ Culpepper, and a few others will take a step forward next season. Hell, while doubtful, if the pitching depth looks so good, maybe Matthews gets converted despite making some major strides this season. And what IF Festa is ACTUALLY healthy and ready to pitch again? He's probably headed to the pen for the rest of his career. But LH options on the upper levels are rare other than Prielipp...who's staying in the rotation...and Rojas who the Twins SAY is staying as a SP. That makes resigning Minter all the better. But since we aren't quite sure about Gomez, and Sands is a mystery, why not signing a RHRP with a solid track record? This OP isn't necessarily about WHO, but rather, WHAT for payroll. So I'm going to say the Twins DOUBLE DIP and sign a RHRP of some quality to go along with Minter for $5-7M. LASTLY, this team has been DESPERATE for a 4th or 5th RH OF of quality that can help the roster, especially against LHP, for some time now. And I don't mean a Martin who can only hit against LHP, generally, with no power. And with no FIXED DH, you not only get to rotate your OF, you get the option of semi platoons with a veteran OF who can not only PH, but can also DH once in a while. But with the top 4 OF already set, and a proposed 1B addition, the 5th OF might be ANYONE worthy of the spot. NOTE: Someone like Grichek would have been a PERFECT option the last few years. But probably not now. MAYBE there's someone similar out there to sign if the Twins don't want to stay internal? Just speculation. UNFORTUNATELY, I don't see a way to improve the catching for 2027 unless we sign a veteran for 1yr at $3-5M to replace Jackson. And I honestly haven't looked lately at the FA options available. But the Twins sure aren't going to trade for a catcher with Lakey in the pipeline. So it's probably good defense and good game calling and poor throwing for 2027. It's even possible Jackson overtakes Caratini as the #1 option. But as a receiver only, Caratini is not a bad backstop. So let's add up the additions and look to the high $ value. 1B: 18M Minter: $7M RHRP: $7M UTILITY INF: $5M That's $15-18M-ish for a proposed contract for a 1B addition and resigning Minter and adding another solid RHRP to the staff. You want to just push it to $30M, I'm OK with that. That pushes a potential $100 payroll, without Lewis, to $142M-ish. That is still a LOW payroll. I could live with that for 2027 IF they ACCOMPLISHED that. Again, I don't want to spend just for the sake of spending. At that point they COULD just trade Ryan for whatever prospects they could get. But it's a weird point where you trade a TOP SP for whatever you can get, but then sign another pitcher FA to replace him? That makes little sense to me unless you get another Abel type of prospect back. What does that cost? Is it worth it based on the rotation on hand and the prospects who have already shown flashes? ONLY if some team is GOING FOR IT and doesn't care about losing a quality prospect in their intent. I just don't see a logical reason to sign any FA SP that doesn't cost $40M vs keeping what we have, maybe making a resign, and also trusting in Bradley and Prielipp, etc.

I feel good about the list in the OP. But despite all his talent, I just don't feel comfortable about Lackey until 2028. I just feel there's a difference being a really talented backstop, and a ML backstop. I just think there are subtitles for him to learn to learn. But I'd be happy if he surprised and made it. I'm just betting he's handed the job in 2028. Quick really threw very little in college. He's got a hell of an arm, and there are some underlying successes to his season, as mentioned, that go beyond a poor ERA. A little better control/command, and maybe a little more refinement of his pitches, he could really impress in 2027. But I sort of hope he doesn't debut next season. To me that means the rotation stays relatively healthy, and the 6-7-8 guys are solid enough Quick doesn't have to be rushed in any way. How much fun could it be to see Houston ready about midseason to take over SS, move K-Pepper to 2B, and Clemens becomes a LH power bat utility player? Does Mendez get moved in a trade i wonder? My gut tells me one of Mendez, Gonzalez, or Rosario is moved as part of a deal for a 1B. I don't know that he's considered a TOP prospect as I feel he's been forgotten a bit by some, but with a full season under his belt, and a partial season at AAA, I'd add CJ Culpepper to the list to debut in the bullpen in 2027.