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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    LOL That's why I prefer letting players tell their own story. Bottom Line. I get the arguments against Matt. The larger consideration to me is simple. The Twins need Matt Wallner to be something. They have to grow something.
  2. Riverbrian
    Personal? Maybe a little but not really. I have stood up in support of Trevor and I will continue to and I have unwavering faced the onslaught of those who feel differently. On the other hand... I have also issued trade proposals involving Trevor to acquire a reliever. Of course not knowing if the trade was sensible or not but I understand there are multiple ways to head down the path. Bottom Line for me: He is not an expiring contract. He is potentially returning to Minnesota next year or traded or looking for a minor league deal... but he is potentially returning to Minnesota. If the coaches, analysts and his pure hard work can get him improving this season... we can utilize what he learned... what he discovered... any improvement is available to us in 2027. Then this is all a different discussion. Am I going to bet against him? No... Am I going to bet on him? No. Could it just be consistent sameness that hasn't been terrible? He has been a part of this organization since he got on that boat out of Corvallis Oregon. He has never been a terrible player for us. Never. He was one of 5 professional hitters on the club last year. I worry less about those 5. They can be the best players on the team or they can be the 13th best player on the team but they can hit and it would be nice to have a 13th player who can hit... or a 6th player who can hit... it deepens the lineup. The other 8 to 15 players who were not professional hitters is what needs to be addressed. A Trevor Larnach mixed into an improving 8 to 15 players is good. Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee are going to continue to get opportunities. I think they should continue but they are much more concerning than Trevor is. I don't care if we have 13 left handed hitters on the roster. I don't' wring my hands and pray that they sign Grichuk to protect us from all these lefties. 72% of pitching is right handed. Everyone is capable of doing the math on 72% compared to 28% Everybody is capable of looking up the league averages of L vs L, R vs R, L vs R and R vs L and taking those numbers and doing the math of 72% vs 28%. If anyone does that... the math is going to tell you that you need more lefthanded hitters. .759, .784 ,766 are Trevor's numbers against the 72% the past 3 years. I didn't spend the limited funds on a backup catcher who hits good for a catcher and therefore need to utilize him at the DH spot. Caratini produced .723, .726, .745 against the 72%. Bell. .804, .734, .697. We spent 14 million for that at the DH spot... If those numbers replace Trevor... We are treading water at best. If Trevor remains... Offensively we added two additional Trevor's at best. The allocation of funds is absolutely head scratching. In the meantime. His trade value might be low. If that's the case. We are just giving away one of 5 professional hitters by trading him. But... Yeah... I apologize for the strong response. But... Uff Da. The Trevor attacks? Really? Good Luck Trevor... I got your back.
  3. Riverbrian
    I appreciate the numbers and the work you put into them. He is still a work in progress. Still makes the minimum. He will go forward from here or backward from here. He may go forward and then backward and the forward again. He might become cost prohibited as he reaches arbitration or he might become Pete Alonso like as he reaches free agency signing a 6 year contract. Development is a funny thing. But with our normal budget and not even considering this years abnormal budget... as sure as I'm standing here. We either develop or we die. That is going to require opportunity and patience.
  4. Riverbrian
    It's just another lets give Larnach away article cleverly hidden amongst a suspension intrigued headline. I get the point you are making. Lets trade Larnach to the Braves and in support of that idea... lets minimize everything he has done so we are positive that the Braves will cut him after the deal. I'm not going to stand in front of the lynch mob anymore. Carry on with your torching. Larnach is one of us. He was one of 5 professional hitters on the team last year. But go ahead... keep stabbing him.
  5. Riverbrian
    If that's the case. There is little reason to trade him. A guy making the minimum with three more years of control. A dinger every 15.27 AB's in 2025. 972 MLB's trips to the plate with a career .829 OPS and you just want to toss him at minimum salary and teams are also passing at his minimum salary? The investment of 972 PA's and you want to just hand a team the fruits of your labor and they don't want your fruit? There's another article on TD about Larnach to the Braves. The Braves wouldn't want Matt Wallner? The D-Backs, Cubs, Reds couldn't use him? Exactly who is passing on Wallner if he is available?
  6. Riverbrian
    I have no way of proving it. However... in a trade... I think Wallner returns a lot. Prospects most likely in return. A potential 40 home run guy making the minimum on the trade market is going to generate interest from all 29 teams. Now... If the qualifier is "major league talent" in return. I don't know of many teams that are spinning wheels by giving up major league talent to acquire major league talent. They will want to pay in prospects. Wallner is making the minimum... he is a prospect himself. Even if you found a squad that needs an outfielder and is willing to part with a major league IF or SP to acquire that OF. Will we be able to afford that major league player if they have a higher paying contract.
  7. Riverbrian
    This article was pure cheap shot. I am amazed by the volume of this type of ******** bursting across my phone.
  8. Riverbrian
    Trusting the depth was always the answer. I'm not shocked by the shock folks are exhibiting toward Pablo's injury. The loss of Pablo has turned into a load audible gulp. What do we do now... hand wringing? I got news for everyone. Injuries were always going to happen. Just like every year. Little ones... big ones. blue ones.. red ones. #6, 7, 8. on that starting pitching depth chart are going to get significant innings. They were always going to be a key to the success of this team. Anybody thinking we got Ryan, Lopez and Ober bring on 2026! Hasn't been paying attention to the previous years since the beginning of time. I like our starting rotation depth. It's a team strength. If you want to get nervous about something. Watch what happens when we have injuries in the infield and we will have infield injuries. Little Ones... Big Ones... Blue ones... Red ones.
  9. Riverbrian
    None of us have any idea what those on the other end of the phone are offering. That includes reports by the Athletic of a mere offer of the Password from Boston. There are also reports of Tolle and Arias. I don't know who to believe. Here's what I am reasonably sure about. Any actual trade that has been made and the players involved. By comparison of what has transpired. There had to be decent interest in Ryan.
  10. Riverbrian
    The timing does matter. It should have been this off-season.
  11. Riverbrian
    They just decided last year to let them be aggressive on the bases. The change was noticeable and it was a big positive. It was done with a declaration not a change in personnel. It was actual baseball instead of station to station. Can't help wonder what took them so long and I can't help but wonder about the damage done with the previous station to station philosophy.
  12. Riverbrian
    It certainly could lead to cautiousness next off-season. Who knows how the potential labor dispute ends. Right now... I'm not going to react to the public posturing or the opinions expressed. The posturing... the attempting to sway public opinion is going to reach nausea levels as we get closer to the end of this CBA. I'd imagine that Both sides are going to look out for their best interests, both sides are going to want as much of the pie as they can get and both sides should clearly understand the damage done if the games are lost during the season. In the end, I believe there is a possibility that minor changes are made with nothing substantial just like every CBA we have been through as fans. However... Yeah... Some teams just might freeze if they feel major changes are going to happen or revenue is lost due to games being cancelled. Whatever happens... happens but I'm reasonably certain that talent will still need to be acquired when it's all said and done.
  13. Riverbrian
    I am pro-prospect but even as I say that. I recognize the risk. Some pan out... Some don't. Some pay off big time... some are simply average performers. Some get 50 terrible AB's and are never heard from again. There are simply no guarantees but I'll tell you what eases my mind. Watching other teams do this sort of thing consistently, sustaining competitiveness. Having success with some... failing with some but coming out ahead in the end. I'd imagine the Brewers fancy themselves contenders this year. I'd imagine that Freddy Peralta on their 2026 roster would be a significant boost to their chances... Not to mention Tobias Myers. They cashed out before they got nothing for him and they are going to see what Jett Williams and Brandon Sproat will do in Nashville. Just like they did with Corbin Burnes, Just like they did Josh Hader. Just like they did with Devin Williams.
  14. Riverbrian
    Yes Joe Ryan should have been dealt and he still should be dealt. I can't be angry about it because I have no idea what teams were/are offering for him and he certainly shouldn't be given away. Rebuilds, resets, re-whatevers come in shades. They range from a full rebuild to kind of. There are many paths to take. Some of the folks here think a full rebuild should be done. I get the logic of that thinking... I won't argue it. However... I'm not even recommending a tear it down to the studs approach. What I'd like to see them do... Is trade the players who are at the peak of their trade value. The players whose trade value will most likely diminish as 2026 progresses. And I'd like them to take those specific assets and try to acquire a young near major league ready 1B and SS to fill what have been clear development holes that are obvious on the current roster. There are two players... in my opinion of course with significant trade value at the moment that is sure to decline over the course of this season. Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers. That's it. Trade those two to get maximum value in return. Target a young 1B with talent and a young SS with talent. With Joe Ryan making 6 Million this year and possibly 13 million next year. His value is two years of control at for about 19 million. With his top of the rotation talent... I have no idea but I've said this before and I'll say it again. That could be a Walker Jenkins type talent in return. If you lose that trade value... that is a Walker Jenkins sized loss. That is huge. If you wait until the trade deadline. It will be 1 year plus a couple of months... albeit important months at 15 million or so. Not to mention that if everything works out and the Twins find themselves in contention at the trade deadline... they won't trade him and now you have 1 year at 13 million to offer at significantly less trade value. So... No Walker Jenkins sized talent coming back in return. The only way his trade value doesn't take a hit at the trade deadline is if he has a better year this year than last year, stays healthy or there is a seller scarcity that drives the price up.... which I suppose is possible. The risk is enormous. If what happened to Pablo happens to Joe Ryan this year. All of his current trade value is gone. If that happens... the cost is a player with the potential value of a Walker Jenkins. This scenario could be the equivalent of Walker Jenkins just vanishing off the roster. That's what you would lose. Minnesota is going to have to figure out when to trade at peak value. Joe Ryan is peak value right now. He would have to pitch like Tarik Skubal to maintain his current value in the future.
  15. Riverbrian
    There are many that agree with you on payroll. I won't argue it... I honestly have no idea what is happening in the accounting department. Myself personally. I'm done fighting, asking or expecting it. History has taught me well that free agency is not a viable staffing option for us.... UNLESS... they get better at developing young talent that costs less in order to free up the money where we can surprise the pants of me by signing a Correa (who didn't exactly work out). Or... extending a player we'd like to keep around past free agency eligibility. This development hasn't been happening and it is the central core of my almost all of my issues with the Minnesota Twins... it is the underlying source of nearly all of my complaints on this website. I get it... some of us (not me) may have concerns with Wallner as expressed in this thread. I read the concerns on Lewis... On Lee. Keaschall had a nice 180 some AB's... just like Julien did... how will the next 500 AB's go... I don't know but we need to find out. I get the concerns but I'll put it rather simply. We either develop these guys into major league capable ball players or we spend 30 to 50 million on 4 or 8 guys on 1 year contracts. If we spend 30 to 50 million on 4 or 8 guys on one year contracts. We won't have the money to spend on a decent free agent that costs a little bit more. If we have failed to develop... We have also failed to develop trade value to restock the failed system. It all collapses. We can complain about these young players... focus on their faults but they are critical to our future success. IF they fail... we are dead in the water. So... I'm not giving up on them and I'll be cheering my rear end off for them. Wallner is critical to what we need to do to survive.
  16. Riverbrian
    Y'all can focus on negatives until the cows come home. Knock yourself out. All players have negatives. The ones who don't have negatives are signing 400 million dollar deals with one of the 7 teams who will actually offer a 400 million dollar contract. There is no future when you eat your young. If ownership/front office doesn't have the stomach or patience to develop. The future will require at least 200 million in payroll just to fill the multiple open spaces left behind by that development failure. If you can't outbid the Phillies or Dodgers for that free agent with no negatives. You'll have to outbid the Rangers for the next guy with a negative or two. If you can't do that just to maintain this lifestyle. You will need to trade your young in order to acquire players with no negatives. It's harder to trade your young when they have no trade value because you failed to develop trade value. When it all comes crashing down. The rebuild will be snail like because you have no trade value to hasten it. If the fans don't have the stomach or patience to develop. Good Luck.
  17. Riverbrian
    I did know that. I also know that Cleveland is amongst the youngest. It's really not that simple though. The Dodgers also spent a lot of money. Ohtani, Freeman, Snell, Kershaw, Glasnow, Muncy and Teoscar are old players by most definitions and expensive to boot. They did a decent job and worth the cash. However, it could also be argued that the Dodgers also wasted 60 to 100 million (close to what low payroll teams spend in total) on players like Conforto, Scott, Edman, Yates, Treinen, Kike among others. The Twins can't afford Freeman and they certainly can't afford failing with a Conforto who is about all they can afford. There is no getting around it.... youth will have to be served. Thankfully, there are teams providing a road map to being successful with youth.
  18. Riverbrian
    If the question is would you rather go 60-102 or 80-82 that's a different question. Speaking for myself and probably 1 or 2 others. I just don't believe that going with youth automatically means 60-102 and I don't believe that vets mean 80-82. I'm not talking about the specific random numbers thrown out. It's the implication that youth is bad and vet is good or at least average that I'm not so sure about. Even if the youth is bad... At some point you'll have to turn your youth into vets... might as well get the process started. Cleveland and Tampa are routinely youthful and routinely competitive.
  19. Riverbrian
    There will be plenty of teams interested in Joe Ryan at this late date. Even teams that think they have the lions share of work done in roster construction. Some of those teams will receive bad news before February is up. Pablo Lopez won't be the last one in spring training with horrible news. When that happens to the Phillies or the Mets or the Mariners or the Astros or anyone that fancies themselves a contender. There will be less replacement options available to them because the lions share of work has been done. If Tom can just get past whatever... non baseball based strategy... that got him to this point. He might realize that Ryan has a different price tag now... a different desperation price tag attached to him. He has a choice. He can either take advantage of the desperation of the other teams or have his own desperation taken advantage of attempting to replace Lopez. I simply have no reason to believe that a baseball team in contention in 2026 is going to move the financial needle this year. I also have no reason to believe that 2027 will be any better... even if they can remain in contention in 2026. Every year... players are going to age out as we look keeping looking for Josh Bell over and over again.
  20. Riverbrian
    I know you and I mostly agree on the direction they should have gone. I also tend to think like you are here. Which... Well... this is the direction they are going. However.... I do believe it's not too late. Like Led Zeppelin said. "There's still time to change the road you're on". Attempting to replace Lopez with a Littell for example is a slippery slope. OK... you replaced him... what do you do in May when antother key player geos down. I think this is an early indication to do what they should have done. It's like the baseball gods are telling Tom Pohlad... OK... how about now? Trade Ryan and Jeffers get some young infielders in return. "Be a Rock and not a Roll".
  21. Riverbrian
    In this regard. The pitching doesn't worry me as much. I get it... Lopez and Ryan continuing to be Lopez and Ryan are vital because those are two very capable pitchers but at least we got a big group of replacements with potential that were going to be utilized at some point anyway during the 2026 season. The Infield on the other hand. Uff Da... we don't have near the talent level to absorb injuries or poor performance at every position. We are sitting with three infielders at 2B, 3B and SS who are prone to injury. Two coming off not very good seasons playing 3B and SS and a 2B who looked amazing in his first 182 AB's but has yet to reach 200 AB's and we have seen Lewis, Sano, Julien, Wallner and others look real good for 182 AB's before. Tristan Gray is going to be utilized heavily... count on it. He has to be decent. What will Kriedler do for us? The infield depth scares the pants on me... that's if I had pants. My pants are already scared off me by a potential Ryan injury that burns all of his current trade equity.
  22. Riverbrian
    The Twins need a Schittler or Yesavage type or two to rise up from the system. Shane Smith, Cameron, Patrick, Horton, Burrows, Misiorowski, Cantillo, Jobe, McLean, Waldrep, Ashcraft, Burns types. If that doesn't happen. 2027 will make 2026 seem like good times.
  23. Riverbrian
    I was sleeping in med school. This could be something it could be nothing but this was always a question of who and a question of when... it was never an "if" question. Multiple players are going to get hurt in 2026. Not just pitchers. Every year prior to this one. Is proof that multiple players will get hurt in 2026. Every year and every team in baseball is proof beyond a shadow of a doubt. We don't know who and we don't know when but it is going to happen, somewhere, somehow, someway. Logan Webb throwing 200 innings every year is a pretty rare accomplishment. Finding another pitcher with Webbish durability is extremely hard let alone finding three more to round out your rotation. In 2025... In all of MLB. 70 pitchers eclipsed 150 innings. Of those 70 that eclipsed 150 innings... 29 of them had ERA's higher than league average which shows that even if you find durability above average doesn't always come with it This Pablo thing may be something... it may be nothing... however... If Tom Pohlad, or anyone on this site was thinking that we got Ryan and Lopez so lets build around them. Oops!. That plan may not even make it out of February. Team success in 2026 was always going to depend on SWR, Matthews, Abel, Bradley, Festa ETC. anyway.
  24. Riverbrian
    If I had to grade the off-season at this point. F is the only grade I can give. I hate giving out F's because it just lacks creativity. However... there are two reasons that I can't give at least a D-. A. They didn't go the direction I thought they should go. I strongly believe that they should have at the very least cashed out Joe Ryan whose trade value will never be higher and cashed out the expiring contract of Ryan Jeffers. I strongly believed they should have done everything possible to bring in a young SS and a Young 1B to address the huge development holes, to address the current infield depth issue, to provide competition for the entire infield, to increase your odds of someone being successful on the development front. I strongly believe that they should have flooded the 26 man with youth and let competition reveal who will help going forward and lowering the amount of holes that need to be filled the next off-season and the next off-season after that. I strongly believe that no major league team should go into any season THIS THIN in the infield!!! This infield is incredibly thin... especially in consideration of a team that is GOING FOR IT. I am all for Lewis and Lee getting opportunity. I am strongly against not having a net for them. Bets are not hedged. all eggs are in one basket. No competition for playing time. If Lewis and Lee and Keaschall for that matter fail. There is no immediate solution. There is no future solution after Culpepper. B. Ok I didn't get what I want. I'll just have to live with that because they are on the road they are on. Here is the second reason for the F grade. Resource allocation. They spent almost their entire budget on basically two DH's. If they are not trading Jeffers... and if Jeffers is going to get the lions share of time behind the plate. Caratini is the 7 million dollar part time catcher that will have to DH to get 7 million dollars worth of AB's out of him. And there stands Bell for another 7 million dollars and that's the budget. There is simply no explanation for the off-season. But... I will be watching our prized free agent being a DH who hits good FOR A CATCHER.
  25. Riverbrian
    I'll give Derek Shelton a shot. I hope he does great... but he is starting in a hole with me. During his 5 years and change with the Pirates. He lived and died with Margot type vets. This is easily confirmed by simple review of his PA leaders every year of his tenure. His offensive development track record was horrible. This is easily confirmed by the Royce Lewis sized disappointment with Oneil Cruz and the Ke'Bryan, Suwinski, Gonzales sized development issues. Was that the front office or Derek? I don't know but the Twins and Pirates have been doing the same crap. The only difference is that the Twins spent significantly more money. Until this year.
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