Riverbrian

Mountcastle is estimated to make 8 million in his final year of arbitration. Now that the Orioles have landed Alonso. The Orioles would love to have that 8 million back. We could probably trade that guy we got in the Correa deal for him. He would end up being a one year rental. You would be spending 8 million to see if he can sharply reverse what has been consistently declining numbers.

This really makes the 1B market interesting. Is it big news for the Bellinger market? Do the choices out of Japan just go up a peg? Does the trade market for 1B just go up? Some big boys are looking probably looking at alternatives with Alonso about to hit balls onto the folks standing in line at Boog's BBQ.

Adding another outfielder to the mix and reducing the number of infielders in the mix makes no sense to me.

The Twins will need to make some deals just to balance the roster better. They probably have to move an outfielder. Which one? That's a good question and probably dependent upon which team is interested in who and what they are willing to give up in return. I'm afraid that trades like this won't be enough but... the future is TBD.

Your posts always contain a measure of logic. Agreed... they could have kept their relievers and saved 10 million. You wouldn't have Abel, Tait, Bradley, Rojas and Roden but... you are exactly right because Abel, Tait, Bradley, Rojas and Roden matter much less if they are just going to keep traveling the same path anyway. If I'm turning around and reinvesting in bullpen replacement... I'm just... well... covering the ground that we sent away at the deadline. All I can do is assume that Abel, Tait, Bradley, Rojas and Roden serve a future purpose and if you are going down the path of future purpose then go down that path. I honestly don't care what they do with the 20 million in regards to 2026. Put in their pocket or donate it to the humane society. I'd ask Joe Pohlad: Hey is it alright if we put the 20 million that we can spend this year in the bank and you just forget that it's in the bank. Let it collect some interest and let me add that 20 million plus interest to whatever budget I have to work with next off-season and then let the young players dictate who we spend that 41 million on in 2027. Whatever happens... I'll be a Twins fan in 2026... hoping IKF can lead us to the playoffs.

Who knows but I do believe that they would indeed sign a SS to a one year deal. I wouldn't myself but I do believe that they are going to sign a SS to a one year deal. Culpepper doesn't even have to be added to the 40 man roster until December 2027. This supposed contending team... contending is why you keep Ryan. This supposed contending team has Kriedler breaking camp with the club out of spring training. It's all on Lee to get us to Culpepper. When is the time of Culpepper? I don't know but we need to witness some AAA at least. If I believe these rumors as being reported... as extracted from the mouths of the decision makers. And I'll add the comments from Shelton that the jump from AAA to MLB being massive and as large as it's ever been and that young hitters fail. If that's the big take away from his time in Pittsburgh even though he was VET HEAVY in his utilization. If that is the first thing out of his mouth. I'd say it is a high probability that we won't see Culpepper in 2026. I certainly don't agree with this approach and I truly wish with all of my heart that the rumors are just subterfuge so they can get the other teams believing they need to add extra sugar to change their minds. The rumors are adding up to an approach... that in my opinion is no different than what they have done since they walked in the door. The same approach that got them here in the first place. If they don't change from that same approach of trying to scrape the bottom to fill rather large holes. a fringe playoff team in 2026 would be an incredible achievement. Fringe playoff team in 2026 isn't even the biggest issue... the biggest issue is the delay of finding the actual players who will be leading this team forward. It'll make a 1 or 2 year process 3 years or a 3 year process 4 or 5 years. The only reason you even go the direction that is being suggested by the rumors. Is if you are getting unreasonable pressure about your job and not having a job after a potential losing record in 2026. If that pressure exists... Just replace the front office now or remove the pressure so the front office can do the actual right thing. Trade tradable assets with value and load up on prospects with talent. Over stuff, utilize them all and let the success/failure ratio close holes so the off-season plan in 2027 isn't covering the same damn ground that you covered in 2026 and 2025 and 2024 and 2023.

Agreed on the bullpen. If I was in charge. I'd focus that 20 million dollars on the bullpen exclusively but that ship seems to be sailing away. If we could land a couple of the top bullpen FA's with that 20 million. We could have a chance at functional bullpen. Not the best in baseball but somewhat functional. Alas... the top bullpen arms are starting to fall off the table. This suggests... and I hope I'm wrong but it strongly suggest that the Twins are going to take that 20 million and spread it around in an attempt to fill everything they need to fill with it... which would spread it so thin that it would be near the point of nothingness. Hoskins or Bell for the power bat guy on a one year deal. IKF or Arcia for that middle infielder on a one year deal. and multiple bullpen free agent left overs one year deals that were not picked over by other teams. But... Hey... it's not all bad news. We will have Joe Ryan supported by Rhys Hoskins!!! We all knew that we were a Rhys Hoskins away last year. 😉 .

If the they want to sign Kim to play SS for a few years. I'm ok with it. It's at least not a temporary plug like IKF would be because I assume that Kim is a multi-year consideration. However... If the Twins rumors are true as reported on Twinsdaily. If the rumors are true. By rumor... I mean the stuff that is being reported coming out of the mouths of Falvey and Zoll. Here are the rumors: 1. We have 20 million to spend. 2. We are not trading Joe Ryan, Pablo Lopez or Byron Buxton. 3. We are looking for a power bat and middle infield and bullpen. I'll add that rumors state that signing Ha-Seong Kim will require a multi year deal at maybe 15 million per, I don't know if that is accurate but in consideration of the thin-ness of the SS free agent market the Twins will have to compete for his signature and that drives price up. Signing Kim will drain that 20 million. And you still have the power bat and the bullpen to address. The Twins are kind of spreading thin and putting themselves against the wall if the rumors are true.

My point is actually the other direction. I don't expect them to be superstars and I expect some to fail. If they were actual superstars... Play them everyday. They are superstars with an OPS over .900. You need that in the lineup every day. Brooks Lee isn't a superstar at least not yet and we shouldn't utilize him like he is a superstar until he actually demonstrates that he is one. I'd like to bet on them... I just won't bet everything on them forsaking all others... Just to start over three years later empty handed. Especially if you don't have to bet everything on one player! With my right hand raised... I swear to anyone who will listen... you don't have to bet everything on one player. Accumulating talent, fostering competition. holding even young players accountable... utilizing all 26 roster spots is a good thing... it should be strived for continuously. Yet... so many seem to fear it... Oh no.. we have Polanco and Julien on the same roster we must remove one of them so we can bet everything on Julien. Having a roster jammed with actual talent is greatly encouraged. Every team should strive for two SS's instead of one. Two catchers instead of one. Two 1B instead of one. Five outfielders instead of three. Every team should strive for 26 rock stars. No team should treat Lewis, Lee type of performance like it's every day worthy performance. Throw numbers at the problem. As opposed to pausing, waiting, clearing the decks for one savior to rise from the streets only to waste the summer praying in vain because he ain't a beauty but hey he's alright. If we end up with 3 quality MLB SS's (we won't) on that 26 man roster... that would be incredible, wonderful news. It won't happen but it would be a reason to celebrate... not a reason for concern. I'm not making judgements on any of the past minor league players of the year. Use your own opinion with the full powers of hindsight. You know that betting everything on Miranda failed. Miranda was years wasted and 1B remains unsolved. If you are comfortable with the all in everything bet on Brooks Lee at SS. You are comfortable and I'll respect that. I'm not comfortable with it and I simply suggest avoidance of going from Lee without a net to Culpepper without a net. I just won't bet everything on one player. I will make the following bet and I'll bet a large sum of money on it... no way of proving this bet... but I am willing to bet: I will find my future SS quicker than you do. I will be running the new infielder(that I got for Joe Ryan) along with Lee and Culpepper at the problem. Letting the players make the decision in comparison with each other. You got everything on Lee or maybe you are already unproductively burning the Lee years and ready to bet everything on Culpepper instead. Either way... I'm finding a SS first. Every single time. In regards to trading Joe Ryan for a SS. Hate to do it... but... his value will never be higher and his value will bring back a Jenkins like talent. Do we need Joe Ryan for 2026? I don't know but you keep him to contend and contention in 2026 is the root of the trade Joe Ryan discussion. Regardless if the Twins are competing in 2026 or not. After this season... he will cost double the money to either the Twins or any team trying to acquire him. With his arb raise and only having one year of control as opposed to two years of control... his value plummets significantly. The year after that... he is a free agent... he's gone... maybe a burned QO in his wake. When do you trade him before he walks away for nothing? That's a good question. The next question is... Do we need Joe Ryan for 2026? If the answer is no... you just answered the first question of when do you trade him. You cash him in... right now. It doesn't have to be a SS acquired for Ryan but I'd get the biggest baddest prospect that you can get for Joe Ryan so you can add rare Jenkins type talent. He's the only player that we can trade to get a Jenkins type or close to Jenkins type prospect in return. If you don't trade Ryan for a SS. You still gotta find a decent one. Because right now... we walk into 2026 with Lee and Kreidler as our SS options and Fitzgerald as the guy on deck. Culpepper isn't on the 40 man yet and he still has to play some AAA baseball before you even consider holding a spot for him with Kriedler or the signing of IKF for one year.

I get it... I'm a fan... I hope the guy comes up and blows the doors off. I am a huge supporter of youth... I post about development all the time. I'm all for Culpepper proving me right. However... they don't always blow the doors off. You need to be careful handling that dynamite. Here's a list of our past minor league players of the year. I'm not making a comment about any of them. They (most) play for my team. I just ask in hindsight... Knowing what you know now... Do you go back and bet everything on them? 2024 - Keaschall 2023 - Lee 2022 - Wallner 2021 - MIranda I just don't recommend betting everything on one player. Talent accumulation should never have a self imposed limitation. If the New SS, Culpepper and Brooks Lee are all doing great... all of them are looking like plus players. A good manager can figure out how to get them in the lineup. And if he can't... one could be traded while the manager is fired.

Not acquiring talent today because of the possibility of talent arriving tomorrow is betting everything on him.

What should they do with middle infield? Don't sign a 1 year rental. I'd rather they acquire someone young.

I appreciate your optimism. I seemed to have misplaced mine momentarily. Every interview I've ever conducted... the person being interviewed speaks of communication... it sounds good to the ear because communication is probably listed as the #1 problem in every office across all industries. Everybody talks about better communication... very few achieve it. It will be interesting to see what actually happens. Actions always speak louder than words and with my right hand raised... I swear that I really try to ignore the words being spoken for public consumption while waiting for actual action. This response was too loud to ignore. He is literally standing on the precipice of Keaschall, Lee, Martin, Roden, Erod, GG, Jenkins, Culpepper and the very first sentence after being asked what he learned in Pittsburgh is: AAA does not prepare you for the big leagues. I'm sure it's an accurate statement because you know what prepares you for the big leagues... that would be the big leagues. However... you are standing on the precipice of what is to come and... I don't know... What was this... a softening of the ground for the crash he is predicting? He stands on the precipice of a youth influx and is already explaining to the public that "they just don't hit". Softening the ground for your upcoming failure. Laying the ground work for one year deals for Hoskins and IFK. His solution in Pittsburgh was to not play them. His and/or Ben Cherington's solution was to give the playing time to Chavis types instead... who also "just don't hit". I think the Twins have not been good in regards to offensive development and I've said so multiple times. The Twins have been amazing at it in comparison to Pittsburgh. Derek should probably say hi to Luke Keaschall and tell him about that gap between AAA and the majors. If you were to write a book on how to stay out of the playoffs and stay out of contention for a long period of time. You would just chronicle what the Pirates have done with Derek Shelton as the manager. The Pirates are perhaps "the worst organization" in regards to the development of offensive talent as we stand on this precipice of not only needing but actively selling the #2 farm system in baseball. Yep... I heard Falvey stick his chest out on MLB radio about the #2 ranked farm system. We've been highly ranked before. Haven't seen them close this Shelton gap. During his Pirate tenure... Ke'Bryan Hayes was traded to the Reds. O'Neil Cruz had a .676 OPS last year and is no longer a SS. Henry Davis... Endy Rodriquez... it couldn't have gone worse and what did he learn from that. Rookies just don't hit? The pitching is too good... the gap is too big.

A. Some are going to struggle... Bet on it. B. Some are going to succeed... Bet on it. What he can't tell you is which ones will be which and I really hope he isn't so focused on A that he struggles understanding B. And... I would say this to his face. I'd be nice about it but I would say this. Umm Derek... You didn't really play rookies in Pittsburgh. I'm sure Hoy Park tried his best. The Pirates have always been exactly what I yell at the Twins about. This cheap vet collection pit but more of them. Derek... You gave vets the playing time. Consistently!!! The Rookies you played... out played them. You were there... it happened right in front of you and what you learned is that there's a gap between AAA and the Majors. This is the scariest article I've ever read on TD. And if you go back and look at what the Pirates were sending to the plate. In 2021... The Pirates starting lineup was: Stallings - 5th best hitter - OPS .704 - 31 Years old - Experience before season 5 Years. Moran - 4th best hitter - OPS .724 - 28 Years old - Experience before season 5 years. Moran would be DFA'd after the season Despite being one of 4 hitters to reach at least average. Frazier - 2nd best hitter - OPS .836 - 29 years old - Experience before season 5 years Newman - 8th best hitter - OPS .574 - 27 year old - Experience before season 3 years Hayes - 6th best hitter - OPS .689 - 24 years old - 1 year (95 AB's in 2020) experience - Basically a Rookie Gamel - 3rd best hitter - OPS .750 - 29 years old - Experience before season 5 years Reynolds - His top hitter - OPS .912 - 26 years old - Experience before season 2 years Polanco - 7th best hitter - OPS .647 - 29 year old - Experience before season 7 years Moving on to 2022 for those still interested. Stallings is replaced by Delay at C who is a rookie. He led a parade of catchers with 167 PA's and he produced a .536 OPS which is really Kevin Newman 2021. In comparison Newman got 554 PA's in 2021 because he produced a more veteran like sub .600 OPS. while Delay was dealing with that AAA - MLB Gap I guess. Moran's .724 OPS and 5 years of experience... now 6 years was replaced by Chavis with 3 years experience. Producing a .664 OPS. Speaking of Kevin Newman... is reward for that sub .600 OPS over 554 PA's in 2021 at SS was a move to primary 2B in 2022. With years of experience he elevated that sub .600 OPS to .687. Newman was moved to 2B to make room for the arrival of Rookie O'Neil Cruz. Cruz finished 3rd in OPS in 2022 with a .744 behind Reynolds and DH Vogelbach. That's 2 years and Hayes and Cruz are the only rookie hitters that he has sent to the plate consistently. In 2023... we got an influx of rookies. This must be the year that he learned what he's saying. Jack Suwinski was their best hitter that year as a rookie. Bae, Marcano and Davis show up and land in the .600 OPS production so we got success and failure and failure and failure. We also meet a new rookie by the name of Triolo who threw .785 OPS at everyone over 209 PA's. In 2024... Here come the Vets to take over. Grandal, Tellez, Michael A. Taylor and a returning McCutchen. 2025... More Vets as IKF and Pham join the party. So... What Year do we think was his best year in Pittsburg? 2023... the year of the rookies was his best season by record during the Shelton tenure. It still wasn't a good year at 76-86 but it was his best. Is that what he means by what the article says he is saying. OK... 2023 was tied with 2024 actually but I don't want my point muddied. My point... OK... There is a jump from AAA to the Majors... I'll buy that even though some rookies were your top performers. Ok... I'll buy that... it makes sense... But then... How do you explain the crappy hitting of your vets. You had a lot more of them! What adjustment gap were they going through. This isn't a youth thing... you don't need to play into that stereo type like you are sleep walking through an interview. You had an entire struggling team thing led mostly by vets... that isn't worth mentioning. My next question would be: If a player is struggling. Who do you want working through it? The one who will be back next year or the vet guy you are going to replace with the same type vet guy. Uff Da

I try to stay out of discussing individual assessments. You could be right. I also realize that anybody brought in on a one year contract can turn it on for half a year like Bader did and then traded at the deadline for Mendez. There is value in that. We don't even have Mendez if Bader wasn't brought on board. It just doesn't happen like that typically and I'm personally not willing to look at all our chips in Mendez getting here and getting it done. I prefer to run more options at the problem. Meaning... I sure would like them to trade for a younger prospect with big bang potential but it'll be hard to get that guy if our trade chips are going to stay with the club. So I'm left with... Do I like Mountcastle over Clemens and Julien. Yeah...I might like him better but do I like him enough over those two to make up for the difference of needing to repeat the process again in 2027. All I can do is be patient and save my complaints to the finished product but that's hard and it's the premature concerns that are leaking out of my fingertips.

I just hate being in this position at a down the defensive spectrum position and I look at this year as a chance to just pull the brakes on it. I understand that teams will plug holes. It's the plugging over and over and over and over and over and over and over that just spoils the mere thought of almost anyone. Mountcastle... I don't know if he has the talent to consider extension so he's a one year rental and I'm not sure if Lowe or Hoskins are sensible two year candidates. I'm just in a "WHAT THE HELL ARE THEY GOING TO DO" mode right now. Not trading anyone and back to finding this year's Ty France will probably just sending me over the edge. Maybe I'll feel different tomorrow.

I am not excited about the idea of signing a one year rental at 1B again. If the off-season is Hoskins and IKF... I'll probably type complaints on Twinsdaily and I'll assume that we will see the playoffs again when a different front office is hired and leads us there.

I was just adding to your post and I found some of the additional numbers interesting without obvious explanation. Such as the Duran usage in save situations being less than what other teams were doing with their designated closer. Was it a matter of save opportunity sequencing making him less available for the save opportunities in comparison with other teams? On a team that had less opportunities in comparison with other teams. To me that's weird. I don't remember any IL stints to explain it. I don't know the answer to that but if you take Duran's mostly successful opportunities out of the mix. You are looking at the rest of the bullpen nailing down 4 out 17 SVO's which is much worse than even you expressed. Then of course after that. The trades took place and guys like Topa were the top dogs in the bullpen and now you have lesser closers handling the specific role that you are pointing out. That makes post deadline a separate consideration. "Stacked" was the adjective that the author attached. It's probably fair to question the selection of that adjective but... you pick a word and type it. I suspect it wasn't the stacked bullpen but Castallano's readiness that had a bigger factor on his being returned to the Phillies and he didn't have a real good year in the minors either. Myself personally... My feeling at that time. Coming out of spring training 2025. I was pretty comfortable with the bullpen as it was and I am often bullpen uncomfortable. I thought that 7 or the 8 slots were at least decent. Although I fully admit... I really expected Alcala to be much better than he was and I was a big believer in Duran, Jax, Varland and Stewart. Bullpens are volatile. Expectations are hard to meet. When I read your post... my immediate thought just turned to the number of opportunities. The number of SVO's goes hand in hand with Wins and Losses and in that regard... I reference the run differential and the lack of offense limiting SVO's. So... whenever I walk down these paths... I manage to find a way to point at the offense as the primary issue.

Save and Save Percentage are strictly end of game stats. If the Twins managed to deploy Duran in those save situations... the numbers would have changed pre trade deadline. Bullpens are deployed earlier than that and play a role in the number of SVO's. The number of SVO's is probably the most concerning thing. By total result... It was more of an average bullpen pre deadline and would still have to be considered a slight disappointment in consideration of preseason expectation of the unit at least in my opinion. It's that preseason expectation that the author referenced with "Stacked bullpen" in regards to not having room for last years rule 5. Eiberson Castellano. It was two different bullpens. By including August and September and limiting to save situations... your numbers probably don't imply fairly. They had 20 Saves out of 35 Save Opportunities prior to the deadline in 108 games. They had 8 Saves 18 Save Opportunities post deadline in 54 games. The most shocking stat is that Duran only handled 18 of the pre deadline 35 save opportunities. That's lower use of your closer in what is already low closer opportunity. Duran had 16 saves out of those 18 SVO's so Duran wasn't really a problem. For comparison... A really stacked bullpen by performance belonged to the Padres. Saurez had 31 SVO's out of the team total of 45 in the same time frame. Estevez of the Royals had 30 SVO's. The Royals had 40 total. The Royals turned to someone other than Estevez 10 times and the Twins turned to someone other than Duran 17 times and had less opportunity to turn to anyone at all. Griffin Jax had 20 holds and not a single save... he blew all 5 of his save opportunities. Good Year? Bad Year? Mixed probably is the answer but he's Taj Bradley now. Bullpen numbers are a lot to unpack. Myself... I'm looking more at the total number of SVO's and less at the result of those SVO's. We had a run differential of 95. We need to produce more runs so we have more save chances.

Agreed The Twins needs to attack this with youth full speed head on. Whatever happens in 2026... Happens. Let the success/failure ratio do it's thing. The players will tell you who needs to be replaced. The players will tell when and where to infuse cash and where to infuse the next wave.

I vote for the latter. 100 MPH Arm that needs some mechanical consistency.

OK... Now they can play... if they choose to play.

It is certainly weird to hear about them possibly hanging out in this neighborhood.

On Paper... They have an extremely talented young starting pitching location. They need offense and they seem to have a Twins like problem developing. They are also filling space with IKF and Tommy Pham type players. If they want to support that pitching staff and they should. They need a big bat... plus more.

I know you asked the question to Chia Pet but I want to answer this one. I normally don't suggest or care about Rule 5 selections but if there ever was a year... This is the year. I'm betting that there are some young 100 MPH arms available. This is the year to roll the dice on one of them guys for the bullpen. I'd feel better with an open roster spot so the Twins could participate. McCusker would be my choice to make the necessary room. If the Twins don't add a decent infielder who can play SS. Kriedler is probably on the 26 man. That would be a bigger problem in my eyes.