Riverbrian

I strongly subscribe to this volume theory. I talk about it frequently. The problem with volume is providing the enough playing time volume to utilize the volume of players to your advantage. This causes teams to intentionally and selectively reduce that volume and our Twins can't seem to get that right. Until they can figure out how to get this #2 system through the major league doors. The #2 System doesn't mean much to me.

Nor should you. OPS is a simple down and dirty stat that simply compares players down and dirtily. Past performance comparison by producing a single number blending two popular metrics. It's easy... so I use it more often than I should with the realization that it won't be kind to players without slugging. I always appreciate your ability and willingness to shine light into some of the dark corners where none of us are looking. When I really want to scratch my head metrically. Sometimes I feel like scratching my head. I'll take these 162 games averages and break them down per game. I do this for fun... because somewhere in my life I was unable to come up with other fun things to do. I bring this up because you kind of brought me back into that world by using 162 game averages. Carroll averages 119 runs per 162 games. Arraez 84. Carroll scores a run every 1.36 games. Arraez scores a run every 1.92 games. Then you get to Home Runs. Carroll 27 HR 162 game average. Arraez 7. Every 8 games... Carroll will bop an extra home run. Hit a home run every 8 games and it separates you from a power hitter and a slap hitter. The Margins get real thin at this point. Then you get down to per PA and the Margins are now sliced so thin that your in-laws will never come back. (If you remember that commercial). Incremental differences take time to become the larger differences that we all talk about on TD.

Just an honest question that I don't know the answer to... Nor do I have a solution. How do you get the owners to agree to an NFL type revenue disbursement when there is a disparity in the prices paid for the franchise. Cohen for example paid 2.4 billion for the Mets. It's worth 3.2 million according to those who posts franchise values. The Pohlads bought the team for 44 Million back in the 1984. If it costs Cohen to 2.4 billion to join the club of 30 owners that is now all of sudden operating on revenue being divided up equally for a level playing field. How would you get Cohen to agree to that without calling his lawyers? And then take the same process through the rest of the 29 owners? Wouldn't the Mets need to be compensated accordingly off the top?

Turning into Bader or Santana would be wonderful. However... if Bell has a great year... they will need to repeat the process next year and hope that the next player who is Josh Bell like can the next Bader or Santana and on and on it goes. The best possible outcome for a resurgent Josh Bell is that you might be able to trade him at the deadline for a Mendez type talent. That's the best possible outcome as longer term solutions are delayed going on 8 years now since Joe Mauer retired in 2018.

It's the same approach but a slightly different way to look at the value of Pre-Arb players. There isn't a magic number of how many pre-arb players you should have to be smaller market functional. For example... Boston is a big budget team that made the playoffs with 15 pre-arb players on the roster last year. Almost double of what the Twins started the season at. A high number of Pre-Arb players doesn't necessarily kill a teams chances. For example purposes... Let's say the Twins had 16 Pre-Arb. That eats 12 million out of the budget... whatever that budget is and you have 10 roster spots to fill. The Current Twins lineup projects to have 7 players making arbitration. Those 7 players are estimated to make 27.8 in Arbitration this year. This takes about 40 million out of your budget whatever it is with Arb and Pre-Arb salary level players and you have accounted for 23 out of 26 roster spots. If your Budget is 100 million like the Twins are looking like they will spend this year. That's leaves them 60 million for 3 players. If it's 153 million it's 113 million to spend for 3 players. That's 3 Pete Alonso type free agents at 30 per and you still have 23 million left over at 153. We know that Buxton and Lopez will take up 42.5 of that and two roster spots and you can subtract the 10.5 million in Dead Money due to Correa and 53 million is spent of it is spent on two plus the dead money. So one Pete Alonso instead of one Josh Bell takes your payroll to around 123 Million. Still 30 million less than the 153. If the Twins could simply fill holes with Pre-Arb instead of Josh Bell. It creates the budget space on a limited budget for extensions, for a better class free agent. I'm just plain tired of being against a payroll wall taking 20 million and spreading it over 4 or 5 spots. The Twins have catching up to do with Milwaukee and Cleveland in this regard. 2026 would be the perfect year to recalibrate... catch up to them as quickly as possible. They just need to FLOOD the system with pre-arb players... stop with the Josh Bells and let's see which pre-arb players will help win games and let them fill as many spaces as they can so we can roll into 2027 with less holes clearly identified through performance and have the CASH in our pocket available to properly fill those holes.

Disagreement is Cool. I certainly can't say who is right and who is wrong. I'll just say this: If you believe that the Twins can and should spend more. The number of Pre-Arb players matters less. If you believe that they have a budget. Counting the number of pre-arb players is critical. I believe they have a budget and am therefore fixated on the pre-arb numbers and I will always be until the CBA changes drastically. Payroll was $153,713,740 in 2023. For simplification. Divide that by 26 and it comes to 5.912 Million per player. Carlos Correa took 33,333,333 out of that total. Minus Correa and divide it by 25 and you see that Correa alone drops that average down a million dollars by himself. 4.815 Million per player is the new number. Then you add in Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez to Correa. The 5 of them cost $81.976,190. Minus that out of 153,713,740 and you get 71,737,550 and you still need 21 players. The Twins had about 10 players who were pre-arb making the minimum in 2023. That's 7.2 Million or so. This leaves you 64,537,550 and you need 11 players. This is about 5.87 per player. The Pre-arb players paid for Carlos Correa. The 10 players you need at 5.87 per. That's Arbitration money. That gives you a Kepler, Mahle, Pagan, Polanco. It buys you a Farmer. Taylor. Now imagine... you are Milwaukee or Cleveland. Still winning baseball games with 18 pre-arb players making the minimum. That will cost around 13 million in total. Subtracting that 13 million for 18 pre-arb players from the 71,737,550 left over after buying, Correa, Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez. This will leave you with 58,737,550 to spend. You can now take that 58.7 million and spend it on how many players? 18 are pre-arb and 5 are Correa, Buxton, Gray, Gallo and Vazquez. 18 + 5 is 23 out of 26 roster spots accounted for. So 3 players needed to fill out the 26 with 58.7 million to work with. That's 19.5 million Per Player. That's a higher class free agent. That's no longer shopping for Manuel Margot or Ty France because of the budget. Counting Pre-arb numbers is critical. Although not as critical if you believe that the Twins will just keeping adding on to that 153 million. Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach, Ryan Jeffers, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Duran, Jax were 7 of those 10 in 2023. They all graduated into Arbitration. No longer the minimum. Players become more expensive as they reach levels. The players making the minimum will need to be replenished as they graduate. In 2025 we were down to 8 Pre-Arb. Same territory as the bog boys. Anyway... Agree to disagree... but that is why I fixate on Pre-Arb.

Very few people make the effort to understand how the stats they quote are put together. I appreciate posts that show the effort. Yes... You are completely accurate that Batting Average counts in OBP and SLG so batting average is indeed counted twice and therefore doubled in the OPS calculation. I love that you took the time to point that out. Some more OPS food for thought. When people are looking at OPS and judging with it. Despite BA counting twice... it's important to note that it is and will always be a slugging driven stat. It's really hard to OBP yourself to an amazing OPS without slugging and it will always make Arraez seem like less than he was or is. Slugging is going to rule the stat. In 2025 the average OBP was .315 and the average slug was .404 therefore the Average OPS was .719. Aaron Judge led baseball in both OBP (.457) and SLG (.688) which is .142 and .284 above the MLB averages. I love how .284 is exactly double of .142 to easily illustrate the case of Aaron Judge in 2025. Slugging provided exactly two thirds of what separates him from the average OPS. Slugging can increase your OPS .100 to .200 points where OBP can increase your OPS .50 to .75 points. Slugging is the driving mechanism in OPS. If you don't slug but don't make outs. OPS isn't going to be pretty. That's Aaron Judge. The convenient leaders in both those stats. Let's look at a couple of others. Out of the top 25 qualified OPS in 2025. The Lowest Slug was produced by Geraldo Perdomo with a .462. His OBP was .389 added together for an OPS of .851. His .132 OPS Separation from the MLB average OPS of .719 consisted of .74 OBP deviation from the league average OBP and .58 boost from the average slug. So even in the finest hour of OBP it moves the OPS needle roughly equal to what slugging does in the case of Perdomo. It illustrates that it is near impossible for OBP to drive OPS. OPS is simply a slugging stat. Arraez just isn't going to look good. Then there is this Wallner guy. .311 OBP and a .464 Slug in 2025. Added together for a .775 OPS. That is .004 below the MLB average in OBP. His OPS was .060 above the major league average. Slug was why his OPS was above average. I love Wallner... I'm not knocking him. But... for a worse example of that sort of thing. Joey Gallo in 2023 and I will knock Joey Gallo until the cows come home from wherever the cows are. I remember you once accurately referred to Joey's 2023 numbers as an Empty OPS and I loved that description. Joey 2023: .301/.440 for a .741 OPS. The MLB average in 2023 was .320/.414. After he took the .019 point OBP hit... His slugging .036 boost above average made him seem like an average MLB hitter. I have no conclusion for this. Just extra stuff to tack on to your fantastic post... everybody should read your post and understand it's implications. Gallo in 2023 looks like he's better with a .741 OPS than Arraez in 2025 in with a .719. Do baseball teams have places for players like Arraez who will never be OPS darlings? I'd take Arraez because that single to left keeps that train moving. He really needs to get his walk rate up but the lack of fear of the big long ball probably keeps pitchers away from nibbling. Do I take Arraez for the Twins this year. No I don't. But I don't want Gallo Either. Ultimately... I like players who don't make outs period. The simple out when you only get three of them an inning is perhaps the biggest run producing stat in baseball. Not making an out puts traffic on the base where the big blow pays off in crooked numbers. Crooked numbers provides space that leads to victories.

They think they will win in 2026. Playoffs and on to the Superbowl.

I bolded the part that I really really agree with it. I believe that you increase those odds through numbers and that's why I want the system flooded right now instead of just betting on Lewis and Lee to be who we they think they should be. The one thing that has always stuck in my head and can't get out of my head. How does opportunity influence the fangraph numbers? How does pre-determination influence those numbers. The 65 Prospect gets chance after chance to be one of the 33%. The Twins are going to give Lewis chance after chance and they will suffer his failures. The 55 prospect who goes through a Royce Lewis type stretch will not get chance after chance. He is simply pushed aside for Ty France. There is no guarantees period but I'd rather the Twins increase their odds by just simply staying away from Ty France type hole fillers.

The scary part for me right now is this: I don't believe the Twins will do either of these things.

Who knows... It's a theory. I won't argue heavy. I have no idea what will happen with the CBA. It's typical posturing right now. The players union and the owners clearly are pulling in different directions. We will see what they settle on so I'm not factoring any of that in. That aside... The Twins would have to buy out two years right now. Projections are for 6 million... I think that's low in consideration of the season he just had. However... if you go with 6 for Arb 2 and double his final year of arbitration. That's 18 million that Ryan will earn with health. If he stays healthy for the next two years and just maintains his current performance level. At age 31.6 he could get a Framber Valdez type deal. 4 or 5 years at 30 million per. Let's say 5 years. 150 million plus the 18 million for 168 total taking him up to age 36.6. That's when the one year deals come in based on his performance over the this contract. If the Twins extend him. Rosterman who is an extremely sharp poster suggests 4-5 years between 120 to 140 million. Joe would probably want the shorter extension so let's say 4 years at 120 for 30 AAV. He makes 120 million and a free agent again at age 33. Where if he maintains his pitching performance... He could certainly sign another multi year deal. Joe makes more money signing that extension. If he wants to beat a path out of town as quickly as he can. He probably understands the risk. I think the bigger question is... Would the Twins take the risk and offer the extension? If they are keeping him this year. They probably should because they are just eating his trade value as his years of control shrink.

Ladies and Gentlemen. The Twins are going for it!

Another point on Chaim Bloom. Red Sox fans hate him in Boston but Breslow is now enjoying the fruits of his labor. Bloom was hired to do what needed to be done in Boston at the time and the fans didn't have the patience for it. Even the Red Sox can run out of money. If money isn't an object for the Red Sox. Mookie Betts would still be banging balls over the green monster. Dombroski was let go because they ran out of money and they had a bad year at high payroll and the only way to fix it was spending even more money. So Bloom is brought in to fix it and he did. I'll bet on him with the Cardinals as well.

Exactly! In another thread... there is someone challenging my shocking opinion that the Twins have been acting more like the Phillies then the Brewers. Not like the Phillies in terms of aggressiveness because the Phillies can be aggressive financially while the Twins can't be aggressive without the money to be aggressive. Signing Ty France is not aggressive. Still, the Front office took payroll to levels previously unseen for this franchise and it wasn't just Carlos Correa that brought them there. It was also the lack of Pre-arb players. Low Pre-arb player numbers is something that you see with the big boys. Players that are not pre-arb cost additional money that eats into the available budget. The necessary budget sense of what the Twins are should have been obvious to anyone taking a job with the Twins. Development was always going to be the key to survival and we put development aside for temporary patch jobs year after year after year. This off-season approach as laid out by public statements by those in charge is really a head scratcher. If the Twins go for it this season and fail. The waste will be measurable. The delay will be extended. If ownership is pushing this direction... they need to understand that they are driving payroll up because development is the only way to keep the payroll down with a succussful franchise and they need to understand that Josh Bell isn't going to fill the stands. If Falvey is selling this direction to ownership. I'd think it makes his job more at risk if it fails. I'd think the safer thing for his future employment with the club is to sell ownership on the need to switch directions and point out that there might be a year or two of below average win results.

Crazy is a little strong so I'll pull that back. I also admit to having no idea if the contract length and AAV suggested in this thread is in the ball park or not. However... the theory still remains. Joe Ryan would most likely be paid more if he could sign a long term contract right now when compared to what he will be offered in two years when he reaches free agency and barring trade the Twins are the only team that can offer it. The Twins front office incompetence. That comes down to what matters more to Joe Ryan. The Money or the opportunity to win baseball games and that I don't know. It's probably a combination of everything a person has to consider in these types of things. I'm sure Joe and his agent understand the risk of declining an extension and the Twins understand the risk of offering one.

I love your optimism. I'm trying to hold mine but the fear of something unidentified yet systemic is weighing heavy on my optimism. Those rankings are interesting to read every year. The Pre-season Rankings... The Mid Season Rankings all produced by different publications. I know the difference between 2 and 8 is 6 spots and the difference between 8 and 18 is 10 spots but what I don't know is the actual difference between 2 and 8 or the difference between 1 and 30 for that matter and in the end does any of that matter anyway because hindsight kind of tells a different story when it's all said and done. The 2020 Twins Ranked 8th according to Callis, Mayo and Rosenbaum on MLB.com. That lofty ranking was buoyed by a top ten of Lewis, Kiriloff, Larnach, Balazovic, Duran, Jeffers, Cavaco, Javier, Enlow and Thorpe. 4 of 10 remain in the majors. The Orioles were ranked 13th in 2020 5 spots below the Twins. 10 of the top 12 that year are in the majors. 11 out of 14 if you stretch to 14th ranked Kyle Stowers. Disclaimer: 14 was specifically chosen by me to stretch and include Kyle Stowers of the Orioles in order to support my point. If I go to top 14 for the Twins to keep the numbers equal. We can add Rooker and Wallner to make it 6 out of 14 in the majors. We can dissect the 6 Twins players out of the top 14. Lewis, Larnach, Duran, Jeffers, Rooker and Wallner. It could be argued that the best two players out of those 6 players were Duran and Rooker and interestingly enough, they are the two players out of the 6 not on the team. The #1 Ranked team in 2020 was the Rays: The top 6 for the Rays that year were: Franco, McKay, Brujan, Edwards, Baz and Honeywell. Baz and Edwards are major league players. OK... maybe Brujan can be included since he is sitting on the Braves current 26 man after he was claimed on waivers last year. That Rays class did have a run of success with prospects ranked 7 and 8 and 9 (McClanahan, Joe Ryan and Josh Lowe) Nothing from 10 to 14. 6 players produced by the top ranked team in 2020. Only McClanahan and Lowe remains for the Rays. Yeah Franco was a sad story but I think we can look back in hindsight and say it wasn't a strong class despite it's #1 ranking that year. Baz has just produced a bunch of prospects who are currently #7, #8, #13 and #22 in the Rays system who could be in the next wave. Edwards produced #16 in the Rays system for the next wave. The Rays have to keep the waves coming. We could go through all teams 1 through 30 and see the actual results. 30 BTW was the BREWERS! The team living off their farm system. The top 30 names are not impressive but year after year the Brewers commit to affordable players with years of control. This long post wasn't necessary because you are a smart poster who probably already understood the reason for my development caution and I didn't really have to list all of this to explain my caution. Despite my caution that I come by honestly from watching highly ranked prospects not perform like we all constantly hope for. Despite that caution... I still say the best way to get through what the Twins are going through is to flood the system with young players and let the success/failure ratio eliminate and identify holes. Some people think that the solution to youth struggle at the majors is to turn down the dial. I think the answer to development is turn up the dial. Bottom Line: The Twins development with position players has not been good and I don't know why. Is Shelton right when he says the jump from AAA to MLB is just the hardest thing ever. It certainly might explain Minnesota and Pittsburgh but it sure doesn't explain Milwaukee and Cleveland. Or is just deep rooted philosophy. They just trust Ty France over what they produce on the farm because they gotta scrape for every inch just to get the occasional W. It sure seems like the Twins have opted to turn down the dial on prospects as a response. as they keep that 4 million to 7 million dollar affordable vet dial up. My faith isn't there and Josh Bell isn't providing me with faith. Not trading Joe Ryan isn't providing me faith. Going for it... isn't providing me faith. 2nd Ranked farm system right now... that's awesome. They still have to develop it and they can't seem to get past AAA.

There is another conversation I'm in that produced the same assumptions as your 2nd paragraph. Logical assumptions to reason. Perhaps the only logical assumptions. Your first paragraph describes it perfectly. The front office has lost aggressiveness in any direction. I know that I tend to sit around the house more when money gets tight.

I don't disagree or agree in regards to the current shape of the organization. I've been reading the reports for quite some time. The minor league system has always been rated fairly strong for quite some time but here we are... talking again about... yeah... this next group though. I've waited for the core to form but it's been nothing but patchwork with the position players. I think the pitching will be fine because they will get opportunity and there are some good young arms that I have watched take the mound. The pitchers have to get exposed, they really can't be hid and they will learn on the job and get better. Position players are easily stashed, hid, stripped for parts and that is what they have been doing. The select few that they have actually flung forward without restrictions haven't become what we need them to become. Even with all of that... I still want the Twins to just throw youth at the problem. Trade Ryan for the biggest baddest prospect hitter they can find. Get another Jenkins type talent to throw at the problem. Someday... Maybe Someday... We can stop with the Ty France's.

I've thought a lot about the why? These two things you mention were certainly plausible explanations that I thought about. A. I don't believe that it will increase ticket sales. They would have a better chance at increasing ticket sales with a real good marketing campaign, more bobblehead nights and Snoop Dogg after the game. B. Here's what I'd like to see. An owner that gives the front office the security to do what NEEDS to be done. Desperation always sets in when third chances are given. If the front office doesn't have the security to do what needs to be done. Just make the change and let someone else start fresh. I'm going to torture this next part but... I'm willing to torture. That desperation reminds me of a painful series of downs that I witnessed at a huge football game this year. My team was first and goal from the 3 yard line. Everybody is thinking... run the ball straight ahead 3 times or 4 times if you have to and get that TD. Instead they threw the ball three times for three incompletions and settled for a what was a missed FG and the air went out of the building. Ended up losing by 5 points in a huge game. On 1st down. I'm sure they thought they had a high chance of success since everyone is thinking run. Incomplete. 2nd Down... I'm thinking that they have to run now because everyone is really thinking that they have to run now. So they threw the ball again. Incomplete. Now it's third down... Now they have to throw. 3 yards on the ground is never guaranteed. I was trying to justify in my head what the OC was thinking... give him the benefit of the doubt and that was the best I could come up with. Well... Falvey called a pass play on first down in 2024 and and 2nd down in 2025. Both were incomplete. It's third down now... in 2026. Now they gotta pass. In a nutshell and the reason for that tortured metaphor... I worry that 2024 and 2025 is causing this 2026 approach out of desperation.

I'm certainly skeptical. Even if they are successful they will have to repeat a similar process the following year. It's always fun to watch that cat hanging by a claw pull itself to safety the first time. The 2nd time you have to wonder what the Cat is doing. The 3rd time... you just give up on the cat.

I'll let you discuss the stagnancy. You'll get no argument from me. If you think the budget should be higher... Fine... I don't know where the budget should be. I only know where it's been and it's not the point. The Twins are filling holes with free agents. The Big Boys are filling holes with free agents. It's the same blueprint to success. The Big Boys have money to do this. The Twins don't and it is creating that stagnancy. The Big Boys are not signing Jay Jackson. The Twins are because it's what they can afford. I can't simplify it any more than that. The Phillies and Dodgers started 2025 with 8 Pre-Arb Players on the Roster. The Twins started with 8 pre-arb players on the roster. It pushed payroll up to 150 plus million and then the roof caved in. Milwaukee and Cleveland started with 18 pre-arb players on the roster. They are not signing Jay Jackson either. This is why I'm saying that the Twins are trying to do what the Phillies are doing.

2 years until free agency is a long long time for a pitcher. Joe Ryan would be crazy to turn down that extension. The Twins and Joe Ryan should both be looking at his peak value the same. Twins: Peak Value is the perfect time to trade him Joe Ryan: Peak Value is the perfect time to get your big contract done. Ryan gets a bigger longer contract right now. In two years he is two years older and he gets less.

If it was me. I'd flood the thing with young talent and let the success/failure ratio of that young talent propel you forward and whatever happens in 2026... happens. 2026 might be rough... it might be average... it might be surprising so I'd make no predictions on next year. However... I'd be willing to predict that you will get where you want to go quicker. This scraping 20 million together to fill multiple holes very thinly is... not a good idea and an idea that has been tried every year since they ran out of money when the RSN's collapsed and failed each year. This time they are going for it just like they went for it last year minus Carlos Correa and almost the entire bullpen. If they are not willing to trade Joe Ryan or Lopez and by all reports... they are not willing. There is only one way to see it and that is... they are without a shadow of a doubt... going for it. They are going to reduce Joe Ryan's sky high trade value in an attempt to go for it. If it doesn't work... Joe won't be worth what he was and the return is less. Joe Ryan is a chance to land another Walker Jenkins type talent. If he needs Tommy John next year... it will be the equivalent of losing a Walker Jenkins type talent. The only hope we have is that after Framber and Ranger sign deals and the top of the market free agent starter pile shrinks to the point that the pressure to acquire starting pitching turns to the trade market and inflates Ryan's value enough for them to change their mind. However... If they are going for it. If Ryan is a Twin on opening day. It changes the context surrounding Larnach as he becomes more important than any of us argued about him earlier. Larnach will have the 2026 going for it on his back. Larnach will have the loss of Ryan's trade value on his back. Larnach becomes critical for the deepening of the lineup necessary to GO FOR IT so you don't waste Joe Ryan's trade value failing in your go for it attempt. I have no idea whose idea this is. Pohlad Du Jour or Falvey? Erod and GG will get a chance to prove themselves when the injuries occur. Staying after the call up will depend on them and the other outfielders. Jenkins will probably have to rock St. Paul to force his jumping ahead of Erod and GG. Meanwhile I'm watching the Cardinals cash in and we will see who reaches the playoffs first. I'll bet on the Cardinals. I hope I'm wrong but... Yeah... I'll bet on the Cardinals.