Riverbrian

When you gut your bullpen and don't commit the resources to fix it... you are left with a lot of tryouts and those tryouts will result in some discovery. I'm enjoying the transition of Andrew Morris to the pen and I am hopeful that we have developing bullpen arm for the future. I really like what I'm seeing out of Gomez. The return of Cole Sands will be a plus. The rest of them... success and failure in doses and leaves the impression that the bullpen isn't deep enough and lacking enough late inning options and that isn't a good combination. If the Twins are still in contention at the deadline. I'd expect them to add bullpen arms. If they are looking at good arms with years of service left. Who knows what it will cost but we can look at the returns for Duran, Jax and Varland as a guide for what it will cost in terms of prospects to acquire younger power arms with years of service remaining. Nearly every contending team will be looking for bullpen arms to bolster for the stretch run and that will drive up the price on rentals as well. I always assume that most GM's are pretty disciplined so the price shouldn't go through the roof but there will be competition for any decent bullpen arm rental. Do we have a prospect that we are willing to part with that the trading team will like over the prospects that other teams are willing to part with. This is subjective and dependent on the team we are trading with. We won't give up Jenkins for a rental. Winokur for example... would we give him up? Will some team like Brandon Winokur... again for example. If we have a Bad July and the team is not in contention. It's a completely different discussion. If Ryan, Jeffers, Bell get moved. I think it's fair to ask that a decent young bullpen arm be included in the deal. I do not expect a Bad July. The bullpen certainly needs to be overcome but the team is hitting and producing runs. Our starting pitching has some depth to keep us in games. As much as I talk about it... I think Derek Shelton has done a good job of utilizing the roster. I think the Twins will hit the deadline in search of bullpen help because I believe they will be in contention. That's going to bug some folks on Twinsdaily. Myself... I may not agree with the go for it declaration that was made during the offseason. However... Since they declared they are going for it. I do expect them to go for it if in contention. I would not want my front office wishy washy even if I disagree.

Austin Martin lost his starting job on June 9. He has started 7 out of 21 games since. In consideration of his performance lately... two games a week is about right. Luke Keaschall is our new RF. Austin earned opportunity and then he dropped that opportunity. The Twins played Wallner every day in April. Matt had an OPS of .544 in April. They sent Wallner down... handed the job to Martin and Austin produced an OPS of .588 in May after producing a .892 OPS in April. Now in June... Luke Keaschall is the new starting RF. Keaschall has produced a .648 OPS in June and that is lower than his .662 season. There was an unusual amount of left handed starters deployed against us in April so it disguised Martins short side platoon role with the club but Wallner sucked while Martin was getting on base almost 50% of the time. He earned a shot and then he blew his opportunity. If the Twins intend to utilize Austin Martin as a short side platoon going forward. He doesn't matter... he will be little help today and little help tomorrow. Developing short side platoons is a complete waste of time and limited space. Before you send Austin down to burn his last option. Fedko is first because despite our RF production he isn't being utilized at all.

Last Game Right Handed Starter July 1 - Tatsuya Imai - Won - 8 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 32-30 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.98 ------------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58

I can't assume that Fedko was available but have heard nothing stating he wasn't available. We can assume Buxton was not available and that leaves you three bench options. We know that Keaschall pinch hit for Larnach with one out and nobody on base in the 7th. This occurred with two more innings to go... down by two and a reasonable certainty that Josh Hader would close the 9th. We also know that after Larnach was removed from the game. Left Handers Clemens and Gray were still in the lineup. With Keaschall pinch hitting for Larnach in the 7th. He is down to two pinch hitting options for Gray. Jackson and Fedko were the available options. Jackson has been decent this year in 45 AB's. However oddly and in a small sample... Jackson's success this year has been against right handers not left handers. His career splits over 487 AB's are poor against right handers and left handers but better against right handers. Jackson does have 162 PA's against lefties and while Fedko has 4 PA's. So... I can't blame him for going with experience. Even if the other guy isn't very experienced at all. However... facing lefties is what Fedko was brought up to do. If Fedko isn't the choice over Jackson... What is Fedko here to do? If they should tie or take the lead in the 9th. The future moves when presented with these two choices. Jackson replaces Gray by going to catcher... Caratini goes to 1B, Lewis goes to 3B and Lee to SS. Fedko pinch hitting for Gray would be Fedko to CF... Kreidler to SS. The Fedko sub is also stronger defensively. If he wasn't injured or ill. We can all remove Fedko from our list of players who might be able to help us in the future.

Unless Kyler was ill or injured. The manager choosing Alex Jackson to pinch hit for Tristan Gray against the left handed Hader means that Kyler Fedko can be sent back down to AAA. We will face three left handers in a row. July 4, 5 and 7 so Fedko may get a 3 game run but he isn't getting anything to prepare for it.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 30 - Mike Burrows - Loss - 4 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 31-30 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.93 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58

Yes they can! They also may not. Will they stay above .500? Possibly but I feel that they will need serious bullpen improvements. They still got to play those games one at a time. Baseball is a rollercoaster. There will be hot streaks and there will be cold streaks. If they have a cold streak before a hot streak. The trade deadline will dictate what players are utilized in August and September. The month of July will have to be a good one for our Twins.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 29 - Peter Lambert - Won - Runs Scored 5 Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs. RH Starters: 31-29 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.95 -------------------------------------------------------------------- Season Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58

Also not so good in Day Games and they seem to be better on turf. I'd also recommend facing more AL West teams. That should keep your SABR buddies busy.

Exactly. I think the inconsistency is something all teams go through. Year to year included. The Twins were ranked 14th against left handed pitching in 2025. They were ranked 10th in 2024.

I was away from my spreadsheets. So here is the catching up. All Right Handed Starters faced against the Rockies. June 26 - Tomoyuki Sugano - Won - 9 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 Left Record vs RH Starters: 29 - 28 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.98 ------------------------------------------------------------------- June 27 - Michael Lorenzen - Loss - 5 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 Left Record vs RH Starters: 29 - 29 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.98 -------------------------------------------------------------------- June 28 - Ryan Feltner - Won - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 1 Switch 2 Left Record vs RH Starters: 30 - 29 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.95 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58

Yeah... That was what it says in-between lines. Don't get me wrong... There is some value in defensive metrics but everybody needs to understand how the stat is compiled, the frequency of difference making plays that create the number, the separation between those deemed plus and those deemed negative defensive performers and therefore try to understand what that separation actually means. How many chances a player gets per game. How many of those chances are routine and how many are incrementally valued non-routine plays and how those small percentage plays are then weighted. Then they need to understand how range ratings are folded into stats like WAR and then re-weighted with offensive stats to the point that Max Kepler is a plus WAR player while performing fairly consistently below average at the plate.

93.1 Innings Pitched - 7 CHANCES. How do you weight 7 chances? How do you weight one chance every 13.1 innings pitched? How many of those chances are considered to be routine. What happens to his numbers if he gets an assist or put out on play in a low percentage zone on his 8th chance? Taj Bradley also has 7 chances over his 76.2 innings pitch. How many of those 7 chances are routine? Did one singular play from each cause the difference in .06 and -.07? If it did... how much should any of us pay attention to the small sample data? What is the significance of .6 and -.7 How does 7 chances on the mound every 13.1 innings compare to 216 chances for Brooks Lee at SS and 3B over 655.1 innings? Or one chance every 3 innings. How many of those plays at SS or 3B are considered routine?

We are one game over the half way point. The Twins are 6 games below .500. That deficit comes entirely from their efforts against Left Handed Starters because our Twins are exactly 6 games below .500 against Left Handed Starters while our Twins are exactly a .500 team against Right Handed Starters. As a team... The Twins rank 25th against Left Handed Pitching with a .673 OPS. As a team... The Twins rank tied for 4th against right handed pitching Against Left Handed Starters. Derek Shelton starting lineups average: 5.23 Right Handed Hitters 2.57 Switch Hitters 1.19 Left Handed Hitters That's 7.80 Batters per game standing in the opposite batters box. Against Right Handers Starters. Derek Shelton Starting Lineups Average: 3.46 Right Handed Hitters 2.41 Switch Hitters 3.12 Left Handed Hitters That's 5.53 Batters per game standing in the opposite batters box. Interestingly enough... the top hitting team against left handed pitching are the very young Nationals. The Nationals have a current roster composition of 6 LH Hitters and 3 Switch. I'm not making a statement on the Nats success against left handed pitching nor am I suggesting that we follow that model. I am simply trying to track if Platoons help in regards to wins and losses. This research while rather simple, while ignoring a plethora of more complicated stats is primarily tracking wins and losses. Starting lineups are clearly primarily set in regards to the hand of the starting pitcher. The starting lineup handles the overwhelming bulk of the work done in any given baseball game. The bulk of Offense, defense and baserunning is set with the hand of the starting pitcher being perhaps the primary determining factor. I understand that many people are not following along but for those who check in from time to time. At the halfway point of the season. Despite very consistently placing 8 hitters in the right handed batters box against left handed pitching we are near the bottom at 25th in the league in Team OPS. Comparatively... despite less hitters standing in the left handers batters box with an average of 6. We are 4th. This is good because if you were to choose between the two... You'd want your team performing best against Right Handers because 3 out of every 4 pitchers that they will face is right handed. We currently have a 26 man roster composition of 7 Right Handed Hitters, 3 Switch Hitters and 3 Left Handed Hitters. I'm going to let the sample size grow but half way through the season... loading up on hitters in the right handed batters box isn't helping.

Last Game Right Handed Starter June 24 - Shohei Ohtani - Loss - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 3 RH 3 Switch 3 LH Season Record vs RH Starters: 28-28 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.91 --------------------------------------------------------------------- Accumulated Stats vs Left Handed Starters Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58

In the off-season... I wanted a young 1B and a young SS because the infield is really a problem on the development side.

On the offensive side. The top prospects that we fully commit to have either disappointed or they have been strip mined for parts. When you strip mine your prospects for parts... they will have limited trade value when they get to year 4. You are not just developing minimum making talent for your team... you are developing talent for future trade value as well. When they take every left handed hitter and hide them from left handers... they are diminishing future trade value and they are doing it fully completely.

Not exactly because you'll never get me to trade Byron Buxton. I was OK keeping Pablo because I don't now if he would have fetched a ton in a trade with his contract. I'm also not afraid of youth. I don't believe that youth means you have to lose. You could surround Buxton and Pablo with youth and still be competitive because a lot of youth performs as well Josh Bell or Victor Caratini. It's case by case and the case is primarily peak value. Joe Ryan should have brought a haul... it was risky to not deal him and now the team is in contention so he may not get moved at all. Ryan Jeffers I assume would have landed a couple of good relievers in the off-season. He's a rental price now and may not be moved at all. Royce Lewis isn't peak value. Larnach might be peak value now but the return is? But yeah... When they get to two years left and they have significant value. It's an opportunity to keep the development chain moving with a trade bringing in talent... However... They have to develop that talent in order to trade it for value.

Good Post... And I agree with the majority of it... if not all of it. Money is a huge advantage and that advantage can't be denied. There is no doubt that World Series victories are dominated by high dollar teams with minimum exceptions. One thing to consider though... Playoffs are also dominated by high dollar teams. They have the talent and depth to get them through the 162 game grind to land that playoff chair. In 2025 - #1, #3, #4, #5, #6, #8, #9, #10, #12 and #15 made up 8 of the 12 playoff teams. Two-Thirds of the teams were high payroll. #17, #22, #23 and #25 were the other 4. Money? That is something the Twins don't have and most likely won't have. I've given up screaming about it over the decades of my fandom. I'm screaming about development now. We pushed up to #16 in 2023 payroll and that was as high as they could go... they needed to increase beyond that in 2025 because development didn't develop. It's a wall that every team hits when they push the spending upwards past normal levels. It happens to the Twins... It happens to the Red Sox. The Twins are going to have to develop. They need to produce multiple minimum making major league talent to fill roster spaces and in order to leave significant money that will allow the team to utilize free agency in shorter doses at a higher bigger bang level. They need to pay attention to What Milwaukee and Cleveland are doing and then be a team that does what they do. Then they can be doing what they do with more money available to spend. We can be the big spenders of the successful no money group.

The Rangers were a great baseball team in 2023. So were the D-Backs. But these were the 5th and 6th seeds who put it together at the right time. The D-Backs Swept the Brewers (92 wins) and Dodgers (100 wins) while the Rangers swept the Rays (99 Wins) and Orioles (101 Wins). They both won they ALCS and NLCS with a game 7 against the Astros and Phillies who both had 90 Wins during the regular season. The overall point is. You can't predict that. I can't predict that. The front offices can't predict that. You need a deep roster to survive the 162 and make the playoffs. Once in the playoffs... it's a small sample where 13-9 wins a World Series. In that small sample... you need some players to step up and they are not always the guys that you think are going to step up. If you can get in... Get in. Now do I believe the Twins have that deep roster to make the playoffs... I don't... but my opinion shouldn't matter because I've been wrong before, If any of us can predict what happens in 2026 on June 24th. Place your bets. The Pay out will be enormous.

Contention means you could make the playoffs. I strongly disagree with anyone who feels that certain teams who make the playoffs don't have a chance. Many of us were alive in 1987. Les Straker was our third starter. We had 8 maybe 9 players on the playoff roster who were below average OPS during the regular season. We all watched the Rangers barely get in and beat the D-Backs who barely got in to the playoffs in the 2023 World Series. I don't believe that anyone... including those in front offices around the league... including me... has the ability to accurately predict who will win or lose each play off series. None of us could have predicted that Gladden, Lombardozzi and Gagne would have produced a higher OPS than Kirby Puckett over 50 playoff AB's when that trio produced OPS+ of 76 - 70 and 92 during the regular season. The margins in the regular season are razor thin and that's in a larger sample. One Win Every 10 games is the difference between a 97 Win Season and a 81 win Season. The playoffs are a small sample every single year where the regular season no longer matters and past stats no longer matter. You can go 13 and 9 and win the thing. The Twins stretch of games from April 2 to April 13 would have won the ALCS and put us in the World Series. You can argue that Kansas City, Tampa, Detroit and Boston are not quality but I'll refer you back to the previous paragraph. One Win Every 10 games is the difference between a 97 win season and a 81 win season. Did anyone predict Eddie Rosario to be the 2021 NLCS MVP or Jorge Solar to be the World Series MVP? Randy Arozerana in 2020? Howie Kendrick in 2019? Steve Pearce in 2018? Chris Taylor in 2017? Ben Zobrist in 2016? Daniel Murphy and Alcides Escobar in 2015? Scutaro, and Delmon Young in 2014? Cody Ross in 2013? Placido Polanco and David Eckstein in 2012? Scott Brosius? Bucky Dent? That's a list of players who very few would have bet on to lead their clubs to destiny. There is also list to be compiled of players who were not very good in the playoffs that everyone would have bet on. A list of Clayton Kershaw type playoff performances. Players get hot... they get cold and you can't predict when that will happen but you can predict that hot and cold is going to happen. Make the playoffs and you have a chance. A legitimate chance. Put the long term stats down and just enjoy watching the small sample play of Evan Carter at age 20. Try to figure how Mookie Betts can produce a .871, .782, .492, .083, .951 and .648 OPS from 2020 to 2025. Contention means contention.

And I'll pick up my guitar and play. Just like yesterday.

Last Game Left Handed Starter June 23 - Justin Wrobleski - Loss - 3 Runs Scored Lineup Composition: 6 RH 3 Switch 0 LH Season Record vs LH Starters: 10-16 Season Average Runs Scored vs LH Starters: 4.58 ---------------------------------------------------------------------- Accumulated Stats vs Right Handed Starters Season Record vs RH Starters: 28-27 Season Average Runs Scored vs RH Starters: 4.95

I have no idea what is happening inside those walls. I can only go by what he Tom Pohlad has said and the actions that they have taken and the reality of currently being two games out of wild card spot and 3.5 games from the division lead. This is from February: That’s my personality. But there’s only so much we can do given the timing that we were in. We tried to be aggressive on some things, those things didn’t work out, and here we are. But I also don’t want something to get lost in translation. We really like our team. We think we’ve got a good mix of veterans and really talented young people that want to make a statement. I think we’re going to exceed expectations And then from 5 days ago: Jim Bowden isn’t your average MLB insider. He’s a former league executive, who in that past life, held TWO general manager positions (Reds, Nationals). And on Thursday morning, after “contacting all 30 MLB teams” Bowden reported that the Minnesota Twins have no plans of selling at the trade deadline. Instead, he is extremely convinced the Twins are seeking bullpen help for the 2026 postseason. According to Bowden, the Twins believe that — if they can keep Buxton and Royce Lewis healthy — they are a couple of good relievers away from making a playoff run. Now I'd like to remind everyone of the trade deadline potential prices of getting a couple of good relievers. If they have any years of service left. Duran cost X last year, Jax cost X last year, Varland cost X last year. If they are looking at rentals... everyone will be looking for rentals and there will not be a ton of sellers. Now here they are in contention.

Pohlad says they are looking to add.