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Everything posted by Riverbrian
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I get that. I think this overwhelming Larnach disgust that is expressed comes from different places but is expressed the same. Some see Larnach as a road block to Erod or Jenkins coming up. Some were hoping that the Twins would sign some big powerful free agent and look at Larnach as settling. Some are defense people that want a defensive stalwart that can also OPS .750 plus. I just disagree that Larnach specifically is fiddling around. I still look as Larnach as a development story in an organization that is lacking good development stories. He has developed and there is room for more. He's gotten experience and it should pay off... maybe this year... maybe not. I think he was strip mined for parts during his development years just like they did with Wallner, Kirilloff and Julien. Larnach still came out of it a professional hitter. Are the Twins going to strip mine Austin Martin for parts this year? Right handed hitting specialist pinch runner disposable development? If so... Just move on. He is destined to become MLB roadkill. If I was Larnach reading this website. I'd give you all the middle finger. 😄
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I agree with every word in this post. I do not understand the front office approach this season at all. This year should have been all about the accumulation of talent with the goal of identifying future needle movers that will produce a roster of younger, cheaper and more athletic players. What ever happens in 2026... happens. It's about moving forward instead of fighting to stay afloat with the need to stay afloat next year. The team needs to understand that they can't try to build their roster like the Phillies because they will never have Phillies money to do it. Let the success/failure ratio at the younger level determine what needs to happen next. Instead of letting the success/failure ratio of one year contract vets leave the same hole every year regardless. If they are successful... they are gone... if they fail they are gone. Larnach isn't the future... I understand this. But, he is not an expiring contract so he has an opportunity to take what he has learned thus far and move it up a level. Next off-season he becomes an expiring contract and then the Larnach decision will be completely dependent upon his 2026 performance. I strongly disagree with the allocation of resources this year. Investing your limited funds to someone who as so far been the full time DH just takes the DH spot away from players like Larnach or anyone you want to feed playing time to. Spending 7 million on a backup catcher who is going to the bulk of his playing time at 1B makes no sense. Yes he lengthens out your lineup a little... that's wonderful but let's be clear. Caratini hits good for catcher. Not quite so good for 1B. Nearly no investment in the largest holes on the club... like the bullpen that they filled full of crafty 33 year olds. Anyway... the allocation of resources this off-season is head scratching and I still hope they prove me wrong. Right now... Larnach is not the problem. TD is treating Larnach like he stole food from starving children.
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The attacks on Larnach are unyielding and ridiculous and they lack perspective. Therefore... My defense of Larnach also has to be unyielding and being unyielding leaves the impression that I think he is the greatest player ever. Gregg Masterson thinks my defense of Larnach seems personal. I just ask for proper perspective. PERSPECTIVE! PLEASE! You talk of balance in regards of the 2026 roster construction. I agree with you but how about some Larnach balance on Twinsdaily. Larnach is one of us. He was one of five professional hitters returning to the team. FIVE!. I do not consider Lewis and Lee in 2025 part of that group of five. However... Lewis and Lee can play 162 games while we stick our pitch forks in Larnach. I get it... some people really focus on defense. OK fine... go get a defensive corner outfielder if that's the key to victory but that isn't going to help solve our hitting problem. It was sure nice of Cody Christie to explain fielding run value to me in elementary terms. I ask everyone to please understand what is being thrown around. I ask everyone to understand how many defensive plays occur to an individual defender per game and I ask everyone to understand how many of those plays are simple routine plays. Ask yourself how often a needle moving play actually occurs. While considering the weighting... Ask Yourself how Ty France can go from -7 FRV in 2024 to +7 in 2025. Was he being fed range juice intravenously during the season? Think about that for just a bit and then ask yourself... is it possible that the majority of limited chances being routine is leaving a fairly unstable stat. That we just throw around like we understand the difference between Trevor's much maligned -7 and WIlli Castro's multi positional -7. Cody Bellinger went from zero to 9. Bobby Witt went from 11 to 20. Impressive Range increase from Mr. Witt. I'm sure he will be 20 every year from here on out. Bo Bichette fell from zero to -10. PERSPECTIVE is what I'm asking for.
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There are quite a few calling for the tossing of Wallner. Twinsdaily is in interesting place because you can can get into a discussion on basically everybody and everything and find counter opinions on everything from Chafin to the sky being blue. Larnach being merely adequate at a lot of things adds up to adequate. This team has worse problems. Other players are great fielding and terrible at hitting. Others are great at hitting and terrible at base running. If you find a player that is good at every aspect of baseball they are going to price themselves out of target field. Most of them... you take their pluses and their minuses and end up with a huge congregation of players in the middle and hard line decisions are made on these players in the middle. I agree that Larnach may not be a part of the next good Twins team but that is not Larnach's fault. That is going to come down to Tom Pohlad and this crazy competitive plan he has for 2026.
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I appreciate the post Cody. I really do. I want to start my reply with this: I am not anti-defense... I recognize defensive value. I've stated before and I will state again that the extra out or stolen out is one of the most important stats in all of statdom. The extra out provides extra opportunity to string hits together to produce crooked numbers. The Stolen out makes it much harder to string hits together to produce crooked numbers and I believe crooked numbers create wins. I only state this to say that I am not anti-defense. With that said... I really really question range statistics and the subsequent weighting of the range stats. There are many reasons why I question range stats that get folded into everything but I'll avoid going deep into it and just start with this. In the case of an outfielder. The sample size is already too small... 119 chances in 441 innings. 2 to 3 times a game a ball is hit in the vicinity of the left or right fielder. Every 3.7 innings is two or three balls a game. That small sample is then drowned out by the majority of plays being routine. Now we are talking about one influential play every 3 or 4 games and from that one influential ball it is weighted to the point that WAR will actually support a crappy hitting Max Kepler. individual throw cost us a run. Was the runner nailed with a perfect throw or would the runner have been nailed with an average throw. All we got to work with is... umm... 3. OK... if whoever says so... it must be so. But let's say those 3 throws are legit bad throws. How many bad throws did Max Kepler make? Were those bad throws hidden viewing by the plus 1, million and 25 points he got in the range factor numbers. And again... sample size... how many throws a week does a LF make that are legit moving the needle moments. How many throws are simply cut? The weighting is ridiculous and I reject it. With that said. Yes... We have better defensive outfielders on this team and I assume we have better fielders in the minor leagues. Is Larnach a butcher in left? The fans looking at these numbers are taking them to the extreme and calling him one. He isn't a butcher... he just isn't as good as others.
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People just throw this **** around. Do I believe we have better defensive outfielders. Yes I do.. but people just throw this **** around. Exactly how did Trevor cost the team 7 runs? Tell me how the process works. I know the answer... but feel free to step up to the plate and break it down for me. 91% expected catch and 87% actual? Please break this down for me. 441 innings in the OF... 119 Total Chances. If it was 100 total chances... That is 4 balls that he didn't catch to take him from 91 to 87%. 441 innings in the OF... 119 Total chances... that's a ball hit in his direction every 3.7 innings and he is going to get tagged with 7 runs? To drop from 91% to 87% how many games per missed opportunity? Please people... think this through. Anyone can step up and break it down for me. If you can't... I'd recommend stop throwing this **** around.
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Twins Fall to Bottom of The Athletic’s Hope-O-Meter
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
So... forcing a go for it 2026 without adding go for it players in order to energize the fan base isn't working. This was the most head scratching off-season I could imagine. These poll results are a reflection of some terrible instincts since 2023. Pulling the financial plug after the 2023 playoff win just gut punched a momentarily happy fan base. Ahh... You guys are in a good mood... we can change that. Instincts should have told them to go young this off-season. Instead they invested 14 million into a fulltime DH and a backup catcher who will play 1B and DH to get playing time. While also putting together a bullpen of old crafty arms. Tom Pohlad is the last man standing in the front office... he is clearly in charge. We don't have to guess about the level of ownership involvement and I will no longer wonder who to look at, when the 2026 results roll in. Tom will get credit or Tom will get blame but we know who. Even with all that negativity typed by me. I am one of the hopeful 4%... until my words above are proven correct. -
Congratulations to Derek Shelton on his first win as the manager of our Minnesota Twins. Loved the Royce home run. This team needs Royce to be the Royce that was basically promised to us. So... I loved the Royce home run. It'll be Wallner's turn tomorrow. I'm calling it. Taj Bradley with a great start. I loved that. The guy has stuff.
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- byron buxton
- royce lewis
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I'm not sure if "Ace" is being tossed around with sarcasm or not. I'm not looking for "Ace" definition. However: Trevor Rogers in 2025: 109.2 Innings - 1.81 ERA. - .903 WHIP - 103 K's. - 29 BB's. Will he continue? That remains to be seen but those are some incredible numbers.
- 80 replies
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- joe ryan
- byron buxton
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13 position players. 5 Right handed Hitters 5 Left Handed Hitters 3 Switch Hitters
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- joe ryan
- byron buxton
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Exactly This team should not be rostering specialists. It needs to be rostering players that they believe in.
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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You are correct that not many teams (if any) properly use all 13 roster spots like I think they should. I do believe it's important for all teams but something that is (in theory) less important for the big money spenders. Why? Because the big money spenders acquire real obvious separators. There is a big difference between Juan Soto and guy number 11, 12 or 13 on a roster. There isn't as big a difference between Josh Bell and guy number 11, 12 and 13 on the roster. Unless you decide... to purposely staff spots 11, 12 and 13 with bench players who can't even compete with Josh Bell. If you purposely choose players who can't compete with Josh Bell. You are wasting one of the 13 roster spots that you can use for development.... 13 roster spots that you can use to find the guy who could become Juan Soto in the future. The proof is in the pudding. When is the last time the Twins have developed an offensive player that had any kind of value when they reach free agency. Max Kepler's one year deal doesn't qualify. We deployed Kepler like he was Mike Trout in his prime. He hits free agency and he was a fall back option at best. We have this supposed log jam in the corners. Let those logs compete with each other. People here don't like Larnach and want to toss him aside like used gum. Bring in players to compete with Trevor... don't just hand Trevor an everyday job... you make him compete for his playing time... However... You need someone to out play him first. If Shelton decides to play Trevor every day while Outman watches. There is no point in Outman at all. Make Outman wait for a Larnach injury? So Outman comes in cold pulling bench splinters out his rear end and gets a prove RIGHT NOW 10 day sample size of playing time and then goes back to the bench when Trevor returns? What does a 10 day sample size do for anyone? If Outman goes 15 for 40 during that stretch with 3 homers. Did he just beat out Trevor on a small sample? I'd hope not because that would be equally mis-managed. Make players earn their playing time. This team only has Byron Buxton who deserves every day playing time. Maybe Keaschall... if he continues what he started and time will tell on that one. There is no log jam. We have the ability to start 2026 with Wallner, Larnach, Martin and Outman competing for playing time using the OF corners and the DH spot. Just letting Royce Lewis and Brooks Lee hit like crap without any competition is just going to keep you drafting early if they fail like 2025. All 3B Eggs and SS Eggs in those baskets and if they fail... who is going to pick up the ball and run with it. No Net... No Insurance... Just one roster spot and throwing everything into that roster spot for years. Lewis and Lee or bust where failure leads to Nolan Arenado signing with the Twins at age 40 to one year deal while we wait for the next Royce Lewis to take a 5 year extended crack at it. If you deploy all 13 roster spots at the overall problem... you can let the success failure ratio work for you... not against you. The success failure ratio has been working hard against us thus far. Outman taking a Keirsay role is pointless. This team isn't a pinch runner away from contention. This team is finding real talent away from contention. No specialists required. We don't need a short side platoon guy... we don't need a pinch runner. We need talent and we need to find it quick. If they use Outman in a Keirsay role. I'll agree with nearly everyone on this site. Just toss Outman out. He will never get the opportunity to establish himself. If he's taking a roster spot... let's see if he can out play Larnach, Wallner and Martin and let's take honest steps toward being better as 2026 progresses and honest steps toward being better in 2027. Accumulate talent... find it. Use 13 roster spots to find it... do not use predetermination to find it just to Lee or bust your way through two years... three years... four years. We've seen how well that has worked for us.
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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Put your best hitters at the top of the order because they will be the guys who have the highest possibility of getting 4 or 5 AB's in any given game. There is no reason over think this one. 38 Plate Appearances per team per game is the average. 38 Plate appearences is 4 times through the order plus two. So that's a 5th AB for Slot #1 and Slot #2. And if that is the case... those AB's will occur in the ninth inning. That's why you put your best hitters at the top of the lineup. Stolen bases... they can occur at any place in the lineup. Batting leadoff in an inning is only guaranteed to happen in the 1st inning... that's it.
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In the case of Outman. The Dodgers have extreme 40 man pressure. More so than the Twins or maybe any organization. They probably faced a lot of pressure to remove Outman from the 40 man roster in order to staff the 26 man roster with the best talent they could and they never took him off the 40 man. That should tell all of us that the Dodgers felt that Outman wouldn't have made it through the waiver process and it should also tell all of us that the Dodgers felt that Outman was somebody they didn't want to lose. The Twins trading for Outman... knowing he was out of options should also tell us that the Twins wanted Outman. If the Dodgers and Twins both feel this way about Outman. He probably isn't going to make it through waivers and therefore he had a roster spot this year and that was probably determined on August 1st, 2025 when they made the trade. Otherwise we just gave away Brock Stewart for nothing. Brock Stewart is also still on the Dodgers 40 man roster. They were going to send Anthony Banda through waivers instead and this means that the Dodgers like Stewart over Banda and we picked up Banda. Put all of this together and the only conclusion you can come to is real simple. Major league teams like Outman. Add to that... Outman's struggles at the major league level the past two years has been with the Dodgers in up and down sporadic fashion. They are small sample upon small sample upon small sample. Who knows what he will do if given an extended run in the majors. I'm not saying that I'm pro Outman but I'm saying that you should all probably put down your gun and take these things under consideration. Roden has options. Others don't.
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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Perfectly Said I agree 1000%... Put your helmet on... the mob will be coming after you.
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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I agree that there should be a competitive consideration in regards to 2024 and Today. I also agree that we should have taken a different approach this year and I'm not a big fan of the direction they are travelling. However... no matter the situation you are in. Going for it or rebuilding... The log jam reasoning is just a waste of time. It's pointless. We want log jams. We should strive for log jams as an organization. As for Larnach and Tampa and Cleveland and Milwaukee. Milwaukee has Garrett Mitchell and Jake Bauers on their roster. Tampa signed Cedric Mullins to join Jake Fraley and Taylor Walls on their roster. Cleveland... They are mostly youth and are typically mostly youth. But Austin Hedges is still hanging around and Hoskins might make the team. With me... it's the expiring contract that drives me crazy. Larnach is not an expiring contract. This means that he can still have a good year and be back in 2027 or traded with increased value. It also means that he could have a bad year and not be back but you don't have to make a decision on Larnach right now. Twinsdaily is acting like Larnach is the biggest issue on this team and Larnach is far from the biggest issue on this team... he's one of a few professional hitters on this team. If Larnach is the 13th best player on the roster... you'll have a pretty impressive roster. We don't have 12 players better than Larnach and he is not an expiring contract. Let's see if he can raise that OPS 30 40 or 50 points. If he can't... he can't. Injuries are going to open the door for Erod, Ggon and Jenkins soon enough. We have those guys in queue. With that said... Yes... I agree with you. I would have cashed in Joe Ryan and Ryan Jeffers in order to take advantage of maximum value for what we get in return. We need additional youth to add to the roster at 1B and SS primarily. I think it's a mistake for us to not do that. The accumulation of talent in the rotation and corner outfields. Not a concern to me at all. We need to strive for the accumulation of talent. I've never seen a log jam. Never seen one and neither has anybody else but every year... We talk about all these logs all jammed up and they never are.
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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Every year... We talk of log jams. Every single year... we talk of log jams. I've still have never seen one. It was just two years ago that we were losing our minds over Polanco, Correa, Miranda, Lewis, Farmer, Julien, Castro, Martin and the hard charging can't miss prospect Brooks Lee. What a log jam of middle infielders. We must reduce these logs all jammed up. This year it's a log jam in the outfield corners. Uff da
- 84 replies
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- alan roden
- trevor larnach
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When I look at this bullpen... This paragraph of yours is exactly what I see. Now... years of watching baseball has taught me that anything can happen... I do recognize the possibility that the unit may perform OK in comparison with their peers. However... the odds are just stacked against the mere possibility that they perform OK. There is absolutely nothing on the top end. I honestly don't care about the closer or set up roles but... who would qualify out of these options for those roles... if I did care. The bullpen lacks simple velocity... it will have to crafty itself to OK-ness. And in my mind... in even worse bullpen news. With 35 year olds leading the bullpen. This bullpen will learn nothing that will help us build a better bullpen in 2027. I hope for OK-Ness. It's the best that I can hope for.
- 77 replies
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- cole sands
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Austin Martin Concussion Clouds Final Days of Camp
Riverbrian replied to Cody Christie's topic in Minnesota Twins Talk
The final stretch of spring training is consistently about diagnoses. For all 30 teams. Rarely does a team come out of camp healthy. Rarely is a team healthy at any point in the season. Decisions are probably minimal. Front offices have built the team before spring training. Deciding between Arcia, Gray and Kreidler based on 25 spring AB's or how they look picking up fungos like its new information isn't confidence inspiring. The team knew who was coming North and it was always a question of who will be healthy enough. Jeffers can safely OPS .463 and keep his job. -
Twins Spring Battles: The Backup Shortstop
Riverbrian replied to Greggory Masterson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I am simply too old to understand the words... slang... euphemisms... used by the kids these days.- 40 replies
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- orlando arcia
- ryan kreidler
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With every Twins starting pitching candidate righthanded until you get to Prielipp and Rojas. Our opposing teams will place left handed hitters in the starting lineup every single game. Cleveland and Detroit will have 6 pure left handed hitters ready to go every game. In consideration of our right handedness in the rotation. Left handed relief pitchers should come in handy... in theory of course. However, Frankly Scarlett.... I could give a damn. If the Twins think they can math this thing together when they need talent... I worry about our present and future. As it stands right now... this bullpen is horrible looking on paper.

