Riverbrian

This is a really important point you are making. They are probably a little pot committed right now. They are going for it. They've spent a large chunk of the money they supposedly have to spend. Bell and Caratini is the game plan. Trading Ryan to the Giants for Eldridge now makes Bell at 7M almost unnecessary. Regardless of what I think they should have done. The time to start heading down that path was before they signed Bell. Now that Bell and Caratini are in the yard. Any remaining moves this off-season need to be in support of those moves and the direction they are trying to go in 2026.

I am optimistic about our rotation. With Ryan, Lopez, Ober, and multiple options with what appears to be very good stuff. I think the rotation can keep us in ball games, where offensive improvement can win us games. The Pirates are looking at a strong rotation and there is reason to hope in Pittsburgh because of that rotation. The Rangers just acquired McKenzie Gore to give them a strong rotation. It provides the Rangers fans a reason to hope in 2026. The Reds rotation looks pretty solid... the offense is where they need to pick it up. If I squint... Yes I'm squinting. I can see the starting staff serving as justification for this attempt to go for it in 2026. However, the bullpens are going to erase some of that optimism that the starting staffs provide for the Rangers, Pirates, Reds and Twins. Here's the thing though. You need to cover approximately 1440 Innings during the course of a season. About 600 of those innings are covered by relievers. Focusing on a closer and a couple of set up guys isn't going to be enough. A strong starting rotation only gets you a little over half way there. So with a bullpen that has the potential to negate starting optimism. This thing is going to turn right back to the offense being the thing that needs to bring it home. The Rangers, the Pirates, The Reds and our Twins will need an offense that can provide some cushion for questionable bullpens that are works in progress and still needing experimentation to get right. The bullpen and the offensive questions suggest to me... that this off-season is the perfect time to do a little restructure. That's just one reason... however, the biggest reason that this off-season is the perfect time do a little reset is this: The Twins are going to have to transition to a different model eventually. It needs to be done today or it will need to be done tomorrow but it needs to be done. With the bullpen and offensive questions. Now seems to be the perfect time to transition into a Milwaukee, Cleveland type model. I get push back when I say that the Twins operate more like Philadelphia than they operate like Milwaukee does. They need to transition from trying to be Philadelphia with significantly less money to work with... to trying to be a Milwaukee with more money to work with. This transition could start right now. Flood the the roster with youth in 2026. Cash in Joe Ryan's trade value at his highest value. Trade Jeffers before he walks for nothing like the Brewers traded Peralta before he walks for nothing. Land a young SS and a young 1B to add to the future of this franchise. This transition has to happen. The budget is why it has to happen. I'm not going to wait around for a new owner to come in and start spending 200 million on payroll. It's not going to happen... I don't care if Musk or Bezos buys the team. The Twins will never be at payroll range where they can comfortably land big fish in free agency. Unless they are able to consistently produce affordable young talent in numbers. Free Agency will never be our friend because the lack of affordable young talent will continually eat the budget space leaving our free agent shopping to the... not moving the needle that much aisle". If they traded Joe Ryan for a young 1B. They wouldn't need Bell, If they punted the catcher position. A couple of defensive guys cheap. They wouldn't need Caratini or Jeffers. That's 14 million to spend on a bigger free agent. Add the 12 million due Ryan and Jeffers and they have 26 million to spend on a better class of free agent and payroll is still around 100 million. If payroll climbs back to let's say 130 million... Now you can spend 56 million on free agents. Starting the transition right now. Whatever happens in 2026... happens but staffing in 2027 will be a little less daunting because we will have some additional position player holes filled by some young players stepping up in 2026. Some won't... Some will. Add a couple more Keaschall type young players to the mix and you have less holes... less question marks. Our young pitchers getting some experience some succeeding... some failing but fewer question marks and a more concise shopping list. We could get this thing down to a few holes for the 2027 roster and 50 million to spend. The Brewers and Cleveland will not be able to keep up with that. We can do it better then them. We will never be able to do what Philadelphia does... better than they do it.., Never. We can't make free agency work for us unless we make development work for us. The transition has to happen at some point. No better time then the present.

A bullpen move. At Last. Thank You

The Twins are going for it. We must prepare for the possibility. 😉

Understood. I'm just stamping out fires big or small when I see them so I focused on this specific part of your article. Everybody wants to focus on all these left handed hitters like it's a problem that needs to be addressed. The Twins should not waste a roster spot trying to counter balance this thing. They need to focus on hitters period and if you have to choose what side of the advantage to play. They should play the side that has 72% of the volume. In other words... more left handers. The math is simple. 72% will produce 3 to 1 more than 28%. In regards to Outman... my stance is the same as it was when they acquired him. If he is merely a two month rental during a lost season in 2025. We will have wasted Brock Stewart. No matter the trade value of Brock Stewart, no matter the injury history of Brock Stewart. Brock Stewart when healthy would have a role in our 2026 bullpen. The trade to the Dodgers is simply GIVING Brock Stewart to the Dodgers if James Outman is just a two month rental during a year when they are competing for lottery balls in the draft. It doesn't matter what I think of Outman or any of us think of Outman... The front office made the deal. They must think he is worth the shot at resuscitation. If they don't... they gave Brock Stewart away. As for his role in 2026... I don't know... But, if they think they can resuscitate him then they have to allow him to compete and show that he can breathe on his own. If Outman is just viewed as some guy that they DON'T want to play or it hurts the team... then he would have no business on this roster. However... that will just renew my concern of why they NEEDED to part with Brock Stewart at all? Outman doesn't need to be Kyle Garlick to justify his existence. Kyle Garlick couldn't justify his own existence being the lefty masher that he was. Outman needs to be better than the other Twins options for a 26 man spot. If the Twins don't believe that he can be that... just toss his body on the scrap heap right now and move on and go shopping for a Brock Stewart.

Left handed hitters facing right handed pitchers is a statistical platoon advantage that can be applied 72% of the time. It's a platoon advantage that is almost as prominent as the statistical platoon disadvantage of left handed hitters facing left handed pitching that occurs 28% of the time. Every time you make roster decisions to address the 28%... you have to toss the 72% out the window. If anyone feels that we have too many left handed hitters. That is a problem that will help you 72% of the time. I repeat... it's a problem that will help you 72% of the time. Left handed hitters facing right handed pitchers produced a collective .747 OPS in 2025. Right handed hitters vs right handed pitching produced a .703 OPS in 2025. It will help you you 72%. It is the most productive configuration of all platoon splits and you have to toss it aside because we are scared of the minority 28% split. At some point... the constant worry over left handed hitters just becomes a form of OCD with no statistical support. If the Twins short side platoon Austin Martin. You can just cut Austin Martin now. He will have absolutely no future value to the Twins.

That is true but... well... his arrival is imminent and I can't wait for them. 😉

Interesting. If this is the conversation that the Twins had with Jeffers. At face value. It means Jeffers and Caratini are the tandem. We invested 7 million in a catcher to play 62 games or less wearing the tools of ignorance. If they both remain healthy through spring training. Alex Jackson will be DFA'd and make 1.35 million playing for St. Paul after he goes unclaimed. Resulting in 15 million total invested in the catcher position. If payroll doesn't rise beyond 100 million this year. The Twins will be committing the largest percentage of their total budget than any of the 30 teams by a fairly large margin. Some of that direct investment into catching can be mitigated by having Caratini play 1B or DH on occasion therefore increasing his playing time. But 1st Base and DH already has 12.5 million invested into those positions between Bell, Larnach and Clemens. Some of that 1B and DH investment can be mitigated by having Larnach play OF but the Twins have Buxton, Wallner, Martin, Outman, Roden, Erod, GG and Walker Jenkins to play OF. Leaving out Clemens for the moment... In total... Jeffers, Caratini, Bell and Larnach will add up to approximately 24 million and account for 24 percent of the 100 million budget. In addition: 50 million of the budget will account for Lopez, Ryan and Ober, Buxton and Lewis. This takes care of 3 starting pitcher slots, DH, C, 1B, 3B and CF. This leaves 26 million to cover 17 positions on the 26 man roster. That's 2 SP arms for the rotation. 8 bullpen arms (the entire bullpen). Plus primary playing time spots at 2B, SS, LF, RF and three other roster spots that will be needed when injuries and rest are needed. 26 divided by 17 is 1.52 Million per on Average and this very close what we will be paying Jackson to play in St. Paul. I'm going to get my wish. I wanted the number of pre-arb players increased. It is going to be increased.

We are all going to feel real silly when Tristan Gray hits the game winning three run homer with two outs in the ninth in game 7 of the World Series knocking in Caratini and Bell. With Joe Ryan giving up 2 runs over 8 innings and Justin Topa shutting the door with the 3 K's in the ninth to close it up as the Pirates fans go home stunned. Shelton gets the last laugh.

Agreed on all. However... We still have training camp yet to be identified injuries that will influence the need of a Julien for example. I assume that... If everyone is healthy... a decision will need to be made between Clemens and Julien. I just don't assume that everyone will be healthy come opening day. That should keep Julien, Outman and Jackson out of the immediate mix.

Interestingly... He was a member of the 40 man folks in Boston so he comes to Minnesota requiring a 40 man spot or a trip through the waiver wire. The Red Sox were at 41... this brings them to 40. The Twins were at 41... this brings them to 42. So... if my math is correct. Two players will have to be moved off the 40 man. Just my opinion but I'd guess that Gray, Brujan and Kriedler are the top considerations to be designated for assignment. Jackson could also be a consideration with the addition of Caratini. 42 on the 40 man could also be a strong indication of a trade in the very very very near future. However... if the team is trying to set up for a run at the AL Central title in 2026. Any legitimate trade value that we send elsewhere would probably bring back a major league ready talent that also requires a 40 man spot. The off-season churns along.

2022-2023 seemed to be quick developing market if I recall correctly. I also think it's possible that the 2023 outlier earliness was due to an aggressive approach to Carlos Correa. I think it's possible that Correa was a singular target that off season. I think it's possible that we would have never signed Gallo and Vazquez if Carlos Correa would have just signed with the Twins without the Giants/Mets head fake. I believe Correa signing with the Giants caused the quick pivot to Gallo/Vazquez.

I feel the same. However... somebody need to come up with better names for those seasons.

Are you still writing 2025 on your checks?

Quality over Quantity is an interesting debate... I certainly don't have the answer to it. I'd guess it's a combination. With the assumption that 16 year olds are indeed hard to project... it would certainly require a lot of research to stand on firmer ground on the quality/quantity thing. However... I suspect that we are asking the wrong question or looking in the wrong place. Signing the young IFA is simply entry into a system. I suspect that the system is what needs to be discussed and analyzed because age 16 to 22 has to be critical development years. Some organizations seem to produce more IFA fruit. Some produce less. Why is that? It's quite possible that the answer lies in the development system. Not the entry point as a hard to project 16 year old?

Complete the painting. You can't understand a Salvador Dali painting after a few strokes. If you have a lobster in your right hand and a telephone in your left hand. It won't make sense until you put them together.

Especially since we spent 7 million on Bell.

Due to catchers needing to working with pitchers... study film, call pitches, frame and all that stuff. I can certainly justify the need to consider the defensive side of the equation. However... With Jackson included the price tag is now 15 million for the position. We are currently $100 million in payroll commitments. So if my math is correct 15% of payroll committed to the position at this point. Only 3 teams are paying more at the moment and all 3 teams are paying more to one player making more. Dodgers - Will Smith will make 16M Atlanta - Sean Murphy will make 15M Phillies - JT Realmuto will make 15M It should be pointed out that these teams have estimated payroll of 429, 263 and 281 million dollars. All of the 29 other teams have someone queued up at the position who make the minimum. I'm sure Caratini will be just fine in comparison with his catching peers. I don't have a problem with him personally. The allocation is a problem... the development is a problem. 14 million out of 20 million spent is a problem. Jeffers will have to be traded or this is ridiculous.

Many of you were asking for a catcher? Many of you were willing to commit limited resources to acquire that catcher. Congrats to those who wanted this hole addressed. I mean that sincerely. There is no snark intended. However... I can't join you in that celebration. The allocation of limited resources weighs heavy on my mind. About a month ago. December 10 to be exact. Dan Hayes reported that the Twins had about 20 million to spend. It doesn't mean that the "league source" he mentioned is/was accurate. If the "league source" was close. We have spent 14 of that 20. Josh Bell produced a .741 OPS over 533 PA's at age 32 in 2025. That is valued at 7m for 1 year. Victor Caratini produced a .728 ZOPS over 344 PA's at age 31. That is valued at 7m for two years. Catchers play less, produce less and are consistent over pays. This is how we spend limited resources. We have segued from Vazquez at 10m for 3 years to Caratini at 7 million for 2 years. Thats progress but the budget remains limiting. Ryan Jeffers will probably be the top free agent catcher next year and we have spent 44 million addressing the 2nd catcher position over a span of 5 years. Trading Jeffers and Larnach can create 11 million in payroll space to add to the 6 remaining. However they are running out of options to spend that 17 million on. They could spend that 17 million on a trade upgrade. That will cost prospects most likely.

This is exactly how I feel. They have reset the salary level but not the expectation apparently and I'm not sure that is going to work. The cost of this venture... is the future. This team has been cashing in on their future for too long now and keeping Joe Ryan is just another version of this paying today with the future. If it works... I'll tip my cap. If it doesn't I'll point to this off-season as a wasted pivot point. A pivot point that will have to happen at some point. The bill will come due. It's actually already due. Come trade deadline. You are a buyer or you are a seller. Anything else is standing still. After two years of standing still in buy position. We had our first year of selling in 2025. The most likely outcome of 2026. Year two of selling. As you point out... Joe Ryan will be less valuable. Ryan Jeffers will be less valuable with two months to go. We will be shopping for Josh Bells replacement with another limited budget because the budget won't increase until they start getting somewhere and trading at the deadline is not getting somewhere. It sure seems like 2026 would be the perfect year but flood the team with youth to get them further along the road for 2027 but that is not what they are doing apparently. Stepping back financially, stepping back in the bullpen, filling holes with waiver claims but not dialing down expectation nor making a full commitment to getting back as quickly as possible is one of the oddest plans I could imagine. Apparently I don't have to imagine it. It's going to happen right in front of us all.

I realize that every list has to include Killebrew and Tony O. However... I'm going to take them off my personal list because I was pretty young and don't have direct memories of them. DH - Morneau C - Mauer 1B - Hrbek 2B - Carew 3B - Gaetti SS - Smalley LF - Buxton CF - Puckett RF - Hunter Utility - I feel like Cuddyer belongs somewhere

When I was in my early 20's many moons ago. I had no money. I was starting a career. Employed full time in my chosen profession making entry level. I couldn't afford a decent apartment on my own so I took on a roommate to split rent. It worked out great for awhile. I won't say I was comfortable... it was check to check but I knew I had the money for rent and food and other stuff. Then my roommate lost his job and everything changed. Now I have the entire rent to pay and my room mate is eating my food because I'm a nice guy, the roommate was a friend and I couldn't bring myself to throw him out into the snow. I clearly remember going to the supermarket... full time employed... loading up on Ramen Noodles and deciding if I could afford shampoo. I remember my room mate coming home with a 5 pound block of cheese that he picked up at a food bank or something. He put that thing in the fridge and it was the only thing in the fridge... there it was,,, stamped U.S. department of agriculture... I swallowed pride along with that horrible tasting cheese. Why did I tell this story. The Twins ran out of money. I've been there... I recognize the behavior.

Your spell check auto-fill thing changed Brujan to Brutal.

Nothing to worry about. He will be moved off the 40 man roster after we sign Kyle Tucker this week. Due to his service time. He will have the option of refusing assignment. That would be risky for him because I believe he gives up guaranteed money on a split contract. I believe that's around $500,000 while he toils in St. Paul.

I'm careful handling that stuff. I'm waiting for aWAR, cWAR. dWAR and eWAR to eliminate those bothersome gaps.