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Catcher

Ryan Jeffers, Sean Murphy and a Qualifying Offer

Wow! 23 Million! The Twins would be crazy to offer that contract. The Twins did not choose to extend Ryan Jeffers as he was entering arbitration. They could have at that point paying him a somewhat more than he would have received in his arb years and then probably getting a break on the early free agent years. I wondered how his salary from Arb through first year of free agency would compare to a catcher that signed an extension heading into their arb years. Here is a comparison to Sean Mu
Catcher's defense

Jeffers and Catcher ERA

By my eyes I believed Jeffers is better at handling pitchers than Caratini. I would even said the difference is significant. I went to Fangraphs and Jeffers is a -1 for his cERA and Caratini is a +1. Yikes! My eyes must be way off. Sure enough Jeffers has a catcher ERA of 4.59 with Caratini at 3.88. Will the staff be in better hands with Caratini taking more of the load? Not satisfied I looked deeper to see if anything was skewing the data. Could it be one bad game? In my mind I trust Jeffe
ABS

Confidence in ABS

The Athletic had an article today that some data I had seen before but couldn’t recall. According to MLB the ABS system is 95% confident that the ABS is no more than 0.39 inches from its predicted location. It is 99% confident that it is no more than .48 inches from its predicted location. That makes me wonder if MLB should be overturning calls that are within a half inch or four tenths of an inch. They could be overturning a human call that is actually correct. Perhaps it should be la
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jorgenswest in ABS

12
Twins Baseball

Fight On

Yesterday was a rough day for me. I have been fighting cancer for 5 years and this spring it had metastasized. I continue to fight every day. Up at 4:30 to do my stretch, strength and balance work followed by a 5 mile run. With that fight I feel pretty good and have a high energy level in spite of all the meds. Baseball helps keep me going. There are still many more games ahead of me and they matter so much more than a championship. That final Twins trade of Varland set off a trigger in me. We h
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jorgenswest in Twins Baseball

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Trade Deadline

Looking Back: Top Prospects Moved at the 2024 Trade Deadline

ESPN listed the top prospects moved at last year’s deadline. Let’s look at how they progressed with their new teams.    Aiden Smith OF: Acquired by the Rays in the Randy Arozarena deal. At the time he had an FV of 50 while playing A Ball in Modesto. The most recent update has him with a FV of 40+ as he has advanced to high A. He has an uninspiring OPS of .716 and hasn’t made it to AA yet. Jake Bloss SP: Acquired by Toronto in the Yusei Kikuchi deal. He had a good first half in AA wit
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jorgenswest in Trade Deadline

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Trade Deadline

Selling Like Tigers

I would sell off the expiring contracts this July but it isn’t a rebuild. I am going the 2024 Tigers route. They traded off four expiring contracts and let the players in their system have a chance to play. All four played significantly in their first half in #2 starter Jack Flaherty, lefty reliever Andrew Chafin, catcher Carson Kelly and Mark Canha. They replaced Flaherty with an opener and Tyler Hilton and Beau Brieske emerged. Brant Hurter was the lefty reliever. Spencer Torkelson returned fr
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jorgenswest in Trade Deadline

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Trade deadline

Dealing Ryan? Let’s look back at the Berrios deal.

The Twins traded a year of control in the Berrios deal. Some are speculating his trading Ryan and his two additional years of control. What would it take for that deal to work out? The Twins traded Berrios with the current and next season of control. In those two seasons he gave the Blue Jays 1.5 WAR and -0.6 WAR. Key elements to the deal the Twins were clearly out of the playoffs and gave up the one extra year of control with a shot at the playoffs. they acquired two we
Batting order

Lineup Construction

The article of Harrison Bader in right field foreshadowed for me a line up against left handed pitching that will be entirely right handed. That might make sense if you look at the numbers in any individual pairing. It might make sense if games are simulated in a computer. I don’t think it makes sense in the play of the game. I recently read some thoughts about line up construction in the San Diego Union Tribune from Padres’ manager Mike Schildt. He was asked about his line up that alternat
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jorgenswest in Batting order

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Minor League Legends

Minor League Legends

Last night’s game at Rickwood reminded of two impactful Twin minor leaguers that never got their chance in the majors.  Chuck Weatherspoon and Ollie Brantley were cited by Rod Carew in his book as being a great help getting through the minors. Both started out in the negro leagues in the 50s. Brantley played for the Memphis Red Sox and Weatherspoon played for the Twin Cities Colored Giants. Both were in the Twins system for years playing and mentoring several future Twins including Rod Care
projection

Austin Martin and Isolated Power

We look forward to seeing if Austin Martin can translate his on base skills to the big leagues. Will those skills translate without more power? He has a career 105 ISO is the minor leagues which led to major league projections this year in the 80-99 range. That leads to the following questions. Is there any reason to hope that his ISO is trending up? Can a hitter be a successful every day player with a ISO in the 80-99 range? Any hope? There is at least some reason to
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jorgenswest in projection

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Data

Carlos Correa and a runner on first

Carlos Correa has 51 plate appearances with a runner on first(only) and less than 2 outs. In those 51 plate appearances he has 9 strikeouts, 6 walks, 1 HBP, 1 double, 1 home run and hit into 15 double plays. The most frequent outcome is a double play. That isn't surprising as he hits right handed, frequently makes solid contact and isn't very fast. Those factors aren't going to change. It makes me wonder how often the Twins have tried to steal a base in those situations. I can't recall any.
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jorgenswest in Data

8
Data

A Different Take on Hard Hit Rate

Statcast keeps track of hard hits and Joey Gallo makes his living on his hard hit rate. It is a whopping .583. That is 100 points better than the next Twin (>100 ABs) Ryan Jeffers at .481. Of course he strikes out a ton. Many of his outs are whiffs and have no exit velocity. Should those be factored in? I wondered what the data would look like if the denominator was at bats instead of balls in play. The new leader is Ryan Jeffers. That was unexpected. Add in the strike outs and Jeffers i
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jorgenswest in Data

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Two Wild Cards: Luis Gil and Dakota Chalmers

In the spring of 2018 the Twins traded Luis Gil for Jake Cave. At the time of the trade Luis Gil had been in the Twin organization since 2015. He had thrown 65 innings over those three years with 73 strike outs and 46 walks. He did not pitch due to a shoulder injury in 2016 and had yet to pitch in rookie ball. He did not make Seth Stoh's 2018 prospect handbook. He did have a big fastball.   In July of that season the Twins traded Fernando Rodney for Dakota Chalmers. Chalmers was injured at the t
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Baldelli and Line Ups: Which Twin has faced the best pitching?

I became interested in the Astudillo discussion in the resting players topic and wondered about Astudillo's use. I have been thinking about this since his critical hit against Matt Barnes in the Red Sox series.   Matt Barnes is a right handed pitcher with the highest k/9 rate in the AL and nearly the highest AL k-rate at 38%. The Twins are tied with the Red Sox 1-1 in the 7th inning. Miguel Sano is in scoring position with two outs. The Twins have 1 hit through 6 2/3. Jonathan Schoop is coming t
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Third Time Through The Order: Established Knowledge or Statistical Illusion?

Everyone knows that pitchers have much more difficulty the third time through the lineup. Right? Isn't this established baseball knowledge?   Data does back it up. Anecdotally we hear stats on almost every baseball broadcast about how much poorer a pitcher performs his third time through the order. League wide there is data to support this claim. According to OPS+ here is how starting pitchers have performed the first, second and third time through the order this season.   PA#1: 91 OPS+ PA#2: 10
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Nick Gordon, Lamonte Wade and Infield Fly Balls

I am curious about the vast difference in infield fly ball percentage in Nick Gordon and Lamonte Wade and wonder how much it matters projecting their bats as major league hitters. I was able to find a few articles on IFFB% but those authors leave wondering also.   One claim is that players with a lower IFFB rate tend to post higher BABIPs.   Another claim is that minor league IFFB rates are greater than major league rates. A wonder is whether this is selection bias and those with greater IFFB ra
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A Brief History of the 20th Pick

The Twins have drafted more often that any other team in this slot. This will be the 7th time in 54 drafts.   Three guys are among the top pick 20s according to WAR in Torii Hunter, Denard Span and Trevor Plouffe. One other pick was helpful though he never played in the majors. Johnny Ard twice made BA's top 100 and was traded to the Giants prior to the 1991 championship season for reliever Steve Bedrosian. Ard's career ended with arm injuries in the Giants system.   Mike Mussina posts the best
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Don McCormack, Tino Martinez, Lance Lynn and the 75th Pick

Note: Thanks to spycake, I know now that we will forfeit pick 95. Even better. Only 2 players of 53 with significant careers. Amos Otis and Dave Cash. Addison Reed and his 6.8 WAR checks in as the third most successful pick 95.   What is the 75th pick in the draft worth? If the Twins sign Alex Cobb or Lance Lynn they would forfeit this pick. How much should this loss factor into the decision?   With the help of baseball reference, I took a look at all of the pick 75s since 1965. The very first p
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Will Dozier Maintain His Value?

One of the questions the Twins must be asking is whether Brian Dozier will retain his value.   We have seen his streakiness in season, but season to season he has been pretty reliable. I do wonder if hitters with his characteristics (pull hitters, fly ball hitters, relatively high ISO, right handed) tend to be more streaky within season. On the other hand, slash stats don't stabilize short of a full season and really aren't very meaningful in splits. We shouldn't expect them to be reliable by th
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8

Santana: In his 30s and pitching well

There are all kinds of questions surrounding whether the Twins should trade Santana.   The market is a huge factor. Is it better to keep him given the limited options in or outside the organization? Is it better to trade him given the demand and supply? Will the demand be greater in July?   My interest is exploring the likelihood that he will continue to be a valuable pitcher for the next three seasons that the Twins can control. I looked for a similar group of pitchers with a healthy track rec
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8

Searching for Radke

Brad Radke was drafted 25 years ago. He arrived in 1995 and averaged over 30 starts a year through 2006. The Twins haven't developed a pitcher of his quality since. I wondered about today's better pitchers. What were their numbers in the minors? In particular I wondered about strike outs and walks. Those numbers are relatively fielding independent.   I went to fangraphs as teams were hitting the 81 game point in the season. Starting with 2013 through mid 2016, I sorted the pitchers by fWAR and p
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3

Twins First Winter Meetings Trade

The Twins waited a few years before they made their first winter meeting trade. In December of 1964 they traded Gerry Arrigo to the Reds for minor league infielder Cesar Tovar.   It was a trade of two 23 year olds. Arrigo made his debut in 1961 and played his first full season with the Twins in 1964. He was a left handed starter pitching in a "plug in starter/long relief" role that year. He finished the season 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA. He struck out 96 batters and walked 45 in 105 innings. He was a p
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3

Landa and Rosario: The Clock is Ticking

The Twins chose to add Yorman Landa and Randy Rosario to the 40 man roster. There is no doubt they have major league velocity. They also haven't found success in Low A ball yet. They opened in Cedar Rapids in 2014 and were injured early in the season. Last year both returned from injuries and pitched in rookie ball before entering low A in 2015.   They need a career path where they can be established in the majors before they run out of options   2016- They really should start in Cedar Rapids ag
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2

Steamer Projections: Starting Pitching

Steamer projections are available for 2016. Steamer uses the last three seasons of data to project the 2016 season. It is easy to write projections off as "guesses" but they are based on a significant amount of historical data. If interested you can read more about the various projection systems and rankings for 2014 here.   Projected Twin starters with games started, ERA and their rank (compared to the 169 pitchers with 20 projected starts). I use ERA because it is projected performance that is
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12

Gambling on the Relief Market: Simply Folly

Signing relievers to multi-year free agent deals is a risky proposition.   Dave Cameron had these numbers in a study from 2010.   I wondered if anything had changed since the study and the new free agency rules. There were 11 non-closer relievers signed prior to the 2013 season to multi year deals.   Jeremy Affeldt (2013-2015), 3 years, $18 million: $-6.6 million(Fangraphs) Mike Adams (2013-2014), 2 years, $12 million: $0.1 million(Fangraphs) Jason Grilli (2013-2014), 2 years, $6.75 million: $1
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