Wow! 23 Million! The Twins would be crazy to offer that contract.

The Twins did not choose to extend Ryan Jeffers as he was entering arbitration. They could have at that point paying him a somewhat more than he would have received in his arb years and then probably getting a break on the early free agent years. I wondered how his salary from Arb through first year of free agency would compare to a catcher that signed an extension heading into their arb years. Here is a comparison to Sean Murphy who signed an extension after the 22 off season and just entering his 3 arbitration seasons.

         Jeffers              Murphy

Arb1   2.425M             4M

Arb2  4.55M               9M

Arb3  6.7M                 15M

QO.     ~23M.       FA1  15M

The Braves will pay Murphy 43 million over those 4 years. The Twins would pay Jeffers 36.675 over those 4 years. The Braves bought high on Murphy after they traded for him but that is the risk and potential reward of the extension. He has really struggled since the 2023 season. The Twins were conservative with Jeffers even after an OPS+ of 133 heading into arbitration. A Murphy like extensions at that time would not have been way out of line.

That 23 million is a one year deal. It comes after saving and getting a bargain the previous three years while in arbitration. If the Twins are going to play it safe and not offer extensions the other piece of it should be a willingness to make a qualifying offer on the other end. In the end it is a cost saving looking at that 4 year window. It has the safety of not making a commitment in case of a career changing injury or significant drop in production.

Comparing a one year QO to AAVs of players who have arb years or decline phase seasons embedded into that AAV doesn’t make sense. All of those AAVs have seasons built in are not peak value. I would argue that Jeffers is in his prime this year and next. They have been getting bargains the last three seasons. Be willing to pay up for one more season in his prime.