jorgenswest

I suspect they will not make the QO and do just that. That is why I want them to make that offer and am not worried whether it is worth it. In the big picture I think they are a better team so in that sense it is worth it.

Do you think the Twins spend 23 million elsewhere if he doesn’t accept the QO? I don’t. I doubt they spend half of that. You can’t spend 23 million on one year deals. If he leaves they are likely to spend 7-10 million on a decline phase DH/1B and another 5 or so million in a couple of aging pitchers or a short side platoon outfielder. I would much rather have Jeffers and fill the other roster spots from within. It doesn’t matter if he isn’t worth it. They aren’t going to bring in a different 23 million dollar player. The 2027 team is going to be better and more interesting with Jeffers and the young players as opposed to adding three lower tier free agents.

They haven’t drafted for defense. Drafting players that play second or third in college like Keaschall, Julien, Encarnacion-Strand and Steer aren’t going to play up the middle in the majors. Corner guys like Wallner, Larnach, Rooker and Sabato are going to have a hard time playing a corner in the majors. The draft priorities may have changed in the past few years but defense was not a priority in the drafts that are fueling this team. It was clear that the infield Shelton was given in 2B Keaschall, SS Lee and 3B Lewis wasn’t going to work. What choice does he have other than hope moving the pieces gets them a little closer to adequate?

I am not sure about that. The speed of the game is faster at each level. Each level up inconsistent footwork or poor hands are exposed more with the greater speed of the game. Everyone is playing faster and that last speed of the game step is a huge. Without hard work at the fundamentals adequate play in AAA is no longer adequate in the majors.

I am encouraged by Roden’s quality of contact and approach at the plate. He has 8 strikeouts and 7 walks showing good plate discipline. His xwOBA of .332 is very good and is a much better predictor of the remainder of the year than his wOBA. I sure hope that the Twins front office knows that Roden’s slash stats are of no value at this sample in predicting how he will help the team the rest of the season. @ashbury pushed me on his bad luck. He had a game in Cleveland where he reached based 5 times. Three of those times were ruled errors by the Cleveland scorekeeper. One was a clear hit. Another probably is a hit with several scorekeepers. He also had a walk off single that could have been a triple but with a runner on third he only needed to get to first. That was to help them beat the Guardians also. That bad luck has been with the scorekeepers and his own stat line but not with the scoreboard. He is 6th on the Twins in WPA. When Buxton returns they need to send out an outfielder or catcher. The catchers don’t have options. Martin and Roden do. Both are taking good at bats and have value to this team. Neither deserves to go down but this is a good problem.

It is one thing to bunt for a hit successfully when the other team isn’t expecting it and another to bunt successfully when the pitcher and defense know you are going to bunt and do their best to stop you. Jackson has one successful sacrifice bunt in his major league career. That was in 2024. The last time he had a sacrifice bunt in the minors was in 2016.

No one has successfully bunted against Ashby this year. I am not blaming Martin. The blame lies elsewhere.

Watching the Twins try to bunt this year is painful. It was particularly painful this weekend. Bunting is hard. Some pitchers are really hard to bunt against. No one has bunted successfully against Aaron Ashby this year. He has allowed no sacrifice bunts and no bunt hits. Maybe you take a chance with a really accomplished bunter. Do the Twins have one? They have 6 sacrifice bunts this year while allowing 23. I can’t blame Martin for this failure this weekend. I do blame Shelton for putting on the bunt. What is the likelihood that he or any Twin would bunt successfully against Ashby? Almost zero. It isn’t a team priority. Shelton should never have put on the play. Is it something they are working in AAA? Perhaps it is a developmental priority. They have even fewer sacrifice bunts in AAA. They have 4. How about the Brewers? They have 27 sacrifice bunts this season and allowed 15. Two top prospect call ups Pratt and Lara have sacrifice bunts in AAA this year. Culpepper’s last sacrifice bunt was his freshman year in college. Bunting made a difference in this series. That doesn’t happen by accident.

Martin has an OBP of over .400 against left handed pitching that is backed up by more walks than strike outs. I think he will get better against right handed pitching over time. I think his routes in the outfield will continue to improve in the outfield. For now he is an inexpensive pre-arb right handed outfield bat. The Twins need one of those.

I would have Kreidler, Martin, Jackson and Caratini on the bench against a right handed pitcher instead of Roden so I see a fit. Hays isn’t helping here. In games where Jeffers isn’t catching. He might be at DH with Bell at 1B, Lewis at 2B and Clemens in RF but even then the defense is worse and it might be better to sit Bell or Lewis and play Roden. I wouldn’t option Martin or DFA Jackson for Hays.

Concur on Hays. I don’t think he helps. We can debate Mauer’s luck as related to the quality of his contact in another place.

Roden is taking good at bats and making good contact. He has among the better xwOBA. His poor OPS is partially bad luck. He also reached on base three times on error in a Cleveland game and two could have been hits. He had a walk off drive off the wall that was rules a single since it ended the game. It takes nearly a full season of regular play for slash stats to stabilize. Let’s not look at them until we get there.

To me this is an irresponsible take by @Sam Caulder. Was their reporting to support this claim? I went and rewatched Pohlad’s interview. He made it abundantly clear leading up to the deadline they needed to add relievers. In order to acquire that major league reliever the Astros were not looking for prospects. They were looking to add a valuable major league piece that happened to be Larnach. In no way is that an intention to move Larnach. It is an intention to add a major league reliever.

With the buyout it is really 10 million for Caratini. If they put him on waivers and he goes unclaimed the Twins would be responsible for his remaining salary. It really depends on much they believe in Jackson as the primary catcher.

Looking forward to a big weekend from Culpepper. We need him against those those left handed starters.