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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. jorgenswest
    I thought so also and was arguing that he needs to be on the opening day roster since it is last option year and might need a reset. I am still not sure. I know that they got a 4th option on Kenny’s Vargas for 2017. He missed 3 months due to undisclosed injury in low A in 2012. He played the last few months. It made me look back at each season for Rodriguez. 2022 stands out as he was injured June 8 and never returned. That must have been less than 90 days of active service. The Twins can’t request the 4th option until after the season he exhausted the third but I believe he meets the eligibility requirements. He likely won’t have 90 days of active service this year either but he only needs one of the five to be short of 90. I still would have traded Larnach for anything I could get and brought him up out of spring but luckily I am not in charge.
  2. jorgenswest
    Would he be eligible for a 4th option based on his injury in 2022 or 2024? It seems likely he will not have been active for 90 days in one of his 5 minor league seasons from 2022-2026. I think 2022 is most likely but with his injury history there may be more than one. If that is the case the Twins probably knew it was not his final option year.
  3. jorgenswest
    @Seth Stohs can probably correct me but I don’t think he can be put in the major league 60 day IL without being in the majors. If he were on that IL he would be accruing service time as a major leaguer. That would not be a wise decision for the Twins. It seems like there was a minor league version of that longer term IL but it had more to do with that 165 or 175 minor league player cap and not the major league 40 man.
  4. jorgenswest
    If it is surgery I think he will be ready for fall ball.
  5. jorgenswest
    I think we will see Culpepper before Lewis
  6. jorgenswest
    They can’t let Contreras get in their head. That’s his goal. It doesn’t seem like it did yesterday. Let it go and come play baseball today.
  7. jorgenswest
    I don’t think WAR will be a good judge. The Twins intended to contend in 2024 on a lower budget. Polanco was their best trade asset and they needed both starters and relievers. The starter and relievers they acquired were failures and left holes on a team that expected them to fill. In order for this trade to be a win Gonzalez need to be significant contributor to a team that makes the playoffs.
  8. jorgenswest
    I am hoping they will be buyers at the deadline.
  9. jorgenswest
    Lee looked good at 3B and the path for Culpepper is clear. The bullpen is getting younger and better. After 51 games the Twins have scored more runs than they have allowed.
  10. jorgenswest
    I wonder how you would characterize the offenses of the 13 AL teams that have scored fewer runs than the Twins this year.
  11. jorgenswest
    Does defense matter?
  12. jorgenswest
    Tonight would be the night to start him against a left handed pitcher. Outman has been starting for Buxton. Maybe Buxton is ready for CF with Gonzalez on a corner or DH and Outman sitting.
  13. jorgenswest
    So you would predetermine whether the team can contend and essentially how the players would perform. The only two Twins World Series came after very poor seasons. In hindsight we can claim how the 1987 Twins were going to be able to fix a disastrous bullpen with a late offseason trade for a reliever coming off his worst season and signing some old relievers in free agency. We can claim that two starters would be enough to get to the playoffs. We can see the extraordinary health of our position players. Others may have predetermined to trade Viola at his peak with his two years of control left.
  14. jorgenswest
    My apologies for derailing the thread but “committing to youth” inspired something I have been wondering about. I lean that way also. My wonder is about utilizing service time. The Twins get six years. Committing to youth should require more development time to be at the major league level. It might mean that things click that last year before arbitration starts. It might take an extra year of service time to get that prime player. There is pressure at the other end of service time also. The pressure to sell high with 2 years left. I don’t think I advocate for both a commit to youth and also a trade at peak value with two years left. I would be squeezing both ends of my 6 years and might leave myself with a productive 2 of the 6. I would call up early and then not trade until we get to that last year. I will sacrifice some of the early part for development in the majors. It seems like many are in the call up early and trade early group. Maybe the best is to be conservative on the call and late to trade maximizing production as a Twin. I acknowledge prospects are all different and a global top 20 should be treated differently than FV50s or below. In general wouldn’t that early/early strategy result in the Twins getting less overall production from their prospects?
  15. jorgenswest
    Thanks. I asked the question because I wasn’t sure what you meant about not putting him in a corner.
  16. jorgenswest
    Go to a Saints games and expect to see 11-12 runs (11.5 total average runs per game). Batter stats look superhuman and pitcher stats worthless. That is an astounding 30% greater than the average MLB game. I wonder what kind of implications that has on the hitter. Do the hitters get such good feedback from there at bats in this run scoring environment that they don’t see the need to make the adjustments required to be successful at the next level? Is it the opposite for pitchers? Are they getting feedback on pitches that might actually lead to success?
  17. jorgenswest
    Is he the DH?
  18. jorgenswest
    There has been a lot of close games and entertaining baseball this year. The 162 matter to me.
  19. jorgenswest
    He peaked as the Yankees number 4 prospect. His path as a Yankee was derailed with a lost 2020 COVID season and then a 2021 season where he tore a UCL. He was out of options before he was ready and has ridden the DFA train from the Yankees to the Dodgers to the White Sox to the Rays to the Twins. Hopefully the train stops here.
  20. jorgenswest
    Seems like they already have more position players than normal on the 40. The 40 is usually pitcher heavy. I am not ready to let go any of Gonzalez, Mendez, Rodriguez, Roden, Wallner or Lewis. Adding Culpepper will add to the imbalance if they were to drop Raya, Klein or Funderburk. I also don’t see which of the four healthy position players I would bring up. Lewis is the only one that can help in the field or on the bases. I guess either a pinch hit bat in Gonzalez or Mendez. Mendez looks to have the best command of the strike and maybe more ready. He could pinch hit for Kreidler or Arcia. They won’t have lefties on the bench.
  21. jorgenswest
    Jansen with cash was moved at the deadline and the return was marginal. Jadher Areinamo might of ranked mid 20s with the Twins. He is floundering in AA this year. I wouldn’t have made that deal and the Brewers would have preferred Jansen anyway. They were looking for a short term solution. The Twins probably could have a middling level prospect from the Phillies in the winter. Jeffers was coming off an OK season (1.2 bWAR, 2.1 fWAR). It was a quiet catcher winter. Realmuto, Caratini and Jansen were the free agents with Ford and Jackson moving in trade. The Phillies were the only real buyer. Maybe they could have got an Alan Roden type as a ceiling. The Phillies might have been waiting Realmuto out all along. Writers speculated the Red Sox also but they prioritized other positions. Reports after the Realmuto signing were that the Red Sox never seriously pursued him preferring Narvaez and his strong defense. Do you think Boras would have him take a qualifying offer or go to free agency? I guess it is most important what the Twins think. They cut off the money in 2023 and still made Gray a qualifying offer. I am not as certain as you that they wouldn’t do the same with Jeffers. A comp pick is likely comparable to his value last winter. It is likely folly but my mind is not fixed. I hope they make that offer and I hope he surprises him and takes it. He is valuable to that staff.
  22. jorgenswest
    When was the last time a catcher received a free agent contract with an AAV above the qualifying offer? I don’t see one in the last 5 years. I only see two significant contracts in the last 5 years at 5/87 and 3/45 but Jeffers hasn’t performed over time near Contreras or Realmuto. There is only one other three year deal and that was Vazquez. Are catchers valued in trade or free agency? It doesn’t seem like it. It might be foolish but I would make a qualifying offer to Jeffers. He might take it. I would also make a 3 year offer with the starter at 3/45. There might be motivation to take it. The first few months of return from this injury is often matched with poor offensive and defensive performance. Boris has to be considering Jeffers’ value if he returns and has an OPS of .600 the last two and a half months with shaky defense. They might be wise to take that contract before he returns.
  23. jorgenswest
    I am all in for watching baseball game where the winning team wins by 1. Even better if it is low scoring though it means neither team found much offense. There have been a lot of close games recently. That why I watch. Entertainment. Of course I would want Buxton to hit a walk off single. Single or pop up doesn’t change the previous 2+ hours of engagement.
  24. jorgenswest
    So he probably won’t take the qualifying offer. That still leaves the possibility of a pick. I saw that 81% of players with the hamate injury returned to their previous level of performance. I don’t see that parsed out for catcher. If he struggles to end the season upon his return as many do I think it will impact his free agent value.
  25. jorgenswest
    The 4th option has always been a little bit of a mystery to me. The 4th option can be granted if a player has exhausted 3 and had less than 5 full seasons. Rodriguez was in the GCL. That was not a full season. The 5 others were injury filled so he might make it in there. A full season is defined as spending at least 90 days on an active professional (Major or Minor League) roster. If a player spends time on the Injured List, that time does not count toward the 90 days unless it was preceded by at least 60 days on the active roster. Would this year be a full season if he doesn’t return early enough or at all? How about 2022, 2024 or 2025? He only needs to find one to qualify.
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