jorgenswest

Added in the reports…

Any offer has to clearly exceed the value of his two months with team engaged in a playoff chase plus that of a comp pick. If the Twins get a deal they need to take it. My bar would be an FV50 plus an under age 20 lottery ticket in low A. The Twins shouldn’t be buyers or sellers. They should be opportunists.

What would you do? He clearly makes this team better. The Angels have already squeezed the best value out him getting his three prearb years and first arbitration year. I think the best possible long term is getting valuable prearb years at shortstop from either Houston or Culpepper. Perhaps I also want to avoid the certain trade Neto conversations that will start next deadline.

Zach Neto is apparently available. does he make sense? From the Angels part he might. He is already in first year of free agency as a super 2. Conservatively his salaries may go 7, 12 and 18 over the next years. Skubal’s arbitration award might make those number larger for top players. I have thought a key to the rebuild is those prearb years they can get out of players like Culpepper and Houston. Rentals get slammed here but I think that is the better direction to go. The cost is minimal. They help meet the specific goal of this season. The better prospects are retained increasing the chance of finding this valuable prearb players. I wouldn’t compete for Neto in this market.

Commitment from owners is picking up all of the salary and limiting the prospect loss.

The Twins need to be opportunists this deadline. Getting Minter for two players Fangraphs has at FV35+ is a good deal. Minter will improve the bullpen. It also sends the message they are serious about competing. Any offer for Ryan or Jeffer or Larnach better blow us away. If that happens they need to take that opportunity also.

I would agree though if he was rehabbing from the majors part if it would be with the Saints. He should get some time there whether they call it rehab or not.

This is exactly the kind of message I would want the league to hear. Want Jeffers or Ryan? Great. We want them too. Pry them away for us. If a week from now they are traded I am sure there will be complaints of transparency and honesty. I don’t want transparent or honest from them. I want the best deal. To get that deal they have to plan to keep them.

Volpe is already in arbitration. Even if he has a good 2027 they will be looking to move him at the deadline.

True. Caratini would be in my trade for whatever you can get right now. They can’t take both into next year and a decline from Caratini next year at his age should be a concern. I think he will be a burden on the roster next year. If they can’t get an FV50 for Jeffers then I am going the comp pick route. If they can I would trade both.

Lalane is a few years away and they would need to put him in the 40 to protect him from rule 5. He would be a burden on the 40. Once he arrives he will have exhausted a few options and have a small window to establish himself. Warren doesn’t miss bats. He is 27 so unless he moves to the bullpen I would think he is more similar to Woods Richardson. I don’t see the upside. He is actually the kind of player to look for in a Wallner deal. Someone 27-29 that has shown flashes. I would keep him and make the qualifying offer over these two. The comp pick or year of Jeffers would be more valuable.

Somehow this conversation took a turn. it doesn’t matter to me whether the Twins offered Jeffers an extension or not or what people say. He wasn’t extended and as a result they paid less the last three years than they would have if they extended him. I argue that the 23 million is not out of line for next year if you look at it in the context of the three arb years. I think over the 4 years they come out paying less if he were to accept the QO. It isn’t a poor use of that asset and that frame allows me to have a higher bar (FV50) for return in a trade. Anything less they can get in a comp pick.

Is this a good use of WAR? Comparing a player that played CF quite a bit will get a positional boost just for playing CF. Larnach is getting a positional deduction for playing a corner and DH. On Fangraphs Larnach’s offensive contribution to WAR is 14.1 runs and Bader’s was 6.6. BR lists it as wins where it is 2.2 for Larnach and 1.2 for Bader. Are the Rays in the need of a corner bat or a guy who can play CF?

It didn’t work yet. They just need one of the two to make it work. The Berrios deal was a fair one made great when they took his salary slot and filled it with Gray.

I wonder if they need to make two moves. Prielipp won’t go deep in his first start back and there has been a lot of bullpen use the last three games

I agree but my post was not about an extension now. It was about not extending early and then offering a QO as compared to extending early as he entered arbitration. I think they should set a high bar for return knowing that they will make a QO.

Martin was ranked #40 entering the 2021 season by Fangraphs. Arias was ranked #37 entering the 2025 season. Martin was an FV55. Arias was an FV 50. The midseason update that trade year moved Martin to FV 50. Arias remained FV50. Arias was an FV35+ in 2024.

The 2025 midseason update on Fangraphs had them both FV50. They both moved up after the deadline. Tolle had not pitched at all during the season. Arias had hit .198 in June and July. They would have been trading for a player who hadn’t pitched and a player that was really struggling with the bat. Their value to the time was not much different than Martin and SWR except that the Twins would have given up an extra year of service time in Ryan.

If the return is two mid to back half of the top 100 you will be getting a similar return to Berrios. A player with a future value of lower tier starting position player and a pitcher with a future value of back end starter bullpen piece. These players will have a 50% likelihood of a longer term career in the majors. In order to do better they either need to hold out for an upper tier prospect or be smarter than most teams and identify an upper tier prospect that is viewed in the back half of the 100. The trading context has changed since the last decade. It is rarer to get those upper tier prospects like DeVries. Teams like the Twins can choose to hold onto their players or be willing to take a few players with a future value of a below average starter or position player as they did in the Berrios deal. I think all of the four deals are better than the return for Berrios. I appreciate@Cody Christie for setting the bar. The Twins should be holding out for these kinds of deals. If they don’t get that offer they should hold onto Ryan.

I think all of these deals are a notch above the deal for Berrios. That is at least the floor they need to seek in two top 100 prospects. The Padres deal doesn’t hit that mark but Salas is a step above either Martin or SWR at that time. I would not take less for Ryan. They need to get an overpay and I think each of these meet that threshold.

Isn’t Volpe already in arbitration making 3.475 million? Even if they did acquire him and he did well there would calls next July for him to be traded at peak value. They would be better off acquiring buy low players that are pre arbitration so they have time to reap the benefits of any turn around.

It would take a large market team that freely spends and does not see 10 million as a big commitment. It will certainly limit the return. The Twins might get a better return from a mid or small market team if they pick up that buyout. A large market team I think would pay off the contract over improving the prospects and in the deal.

Wow! Great game! Getting to watch games like this is why I am a baseball fan. I am here for the 162.

No one is going to offer a one year deal. I am assuming you get that 15 by comparing to an AAV. Any long term deal is going to have decline phase seasons built in. Maybe he gets offered 5/75 or 5/85. A good part of that value is buying his age 30 and 31 seasons. While it is an overpay compared to an AAV that will include his decline, I don’t believe it is out of line with his value for age 30 season. The point of the blog is that you can’t compare a one year deal to AAVs of longer deals that include either arbitration or decline phase seasons. I think that is what you are doing when comparing to 15. The Braves can pay Murphy 15 next year because they overpaid in his arb years. The Phillies paid Realmuto 23.875 million at the end of his first long term deal at ages 33 and 34. He wasn’t worth it those years. He was more than worth it earlier in the deal. Now he gets paid 15 million ages 35 to 37 in clear decline.

Wow! 23 Million! The Twins would be crazy to offer that contract. The Twins did not choose to extend Ryan Jeffers as he was entering arbitration. They could have at that point paying him a somewhat more than he would have received in his arb years and then probably getting a break on the early free agent years. I wondered how his salary from Arb through first year of free agency would compare to a catcher that signed an extension heading into their arb years. Here is a comparison to Sean Murphy who signed an extension after the 22 off season and just entering his 3 arbitration seasons. Jeffers Murphy Arb1 2.425M 4M Arb2 4.55M 9M Arb3 6.7M 15M QO. ~23M. FA1 15M The Braves will pay Murphy 43 million over those 4 years. The Twins would pay Jeffers 36.675 over those 4 years. The Braves bought high on Murphy after they traded for him but that is the risk and potential reward of the extension. He has really struggled since the 2023 season. The Twins were conservative with Jeffers even after an OPS+ of 133 heading into arbitration. A Murphy like extensions at that time would not have been way out of line. That 23 million is a one year deal. It comes after saving and getting a bargain the previous three years while in arbitration. If the Twins are going to play it safe and not offer extensions the other piece of it should be a willingness to make a qualifying offer on the other end. In the end it is a cost saving looking at that 4 year window. It has the safety of not making a commitment in case of a career changing injury or significant drop in production. Comparing a one year QO to AAVs of players who have arb years or decline phase seasons embedded into that AAV doesn’t make sense. All of those AAVs have seasons built in are not peak value. I would argue that Jeffers is in his prime this year and next. They have been getting bargains the last three seasons. Be willing to pay up for one more season in his prime.