Jump to content
Twins Daily
  • Create Account

jorgenswest

Verified Member
  • Posts

    5,753
  • Joined

  • Last visited

  • Days Won

    7

Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. I wonder if the reduction in shifts and larger bases will result in a shift in relative defensive value. Will defense up the middle be more valuable and the corners less?
  2. I think I would let him go. He probably has another similar year left but he has little space to decline. I also don’t think he benefits at all with the larger bases or shifting restrictions. Start Miranda at third and Arraez at first. Maybe look to shift some of that money towards catcher. Sanchez has an average to above average arm (14/49) but he will be a free agent. The others with the same pitchers holding runners on threw out 8/62. Base stealing will likely be a larger factor next year.
  3. I addressed the two questions in his working with young players and the side effect that younger players will make more fundamental mistakes. Based on that skill I would want Baldelli to lead the club in 2023. Others may give more weight to other aspects/questions but I will leave that for them to respond. Seems like my response had little impact your thoughts so maybe you have already developed answers to your questions or at least that one.
  4. As I read this and think about it I do feel better about Rocco as a manager. I do think his young players (none of whom were global top prospects as they arrived at the big league club) have performed better made even much better than expected. Let’s start with Luis Arraez in 2019. Look at the huge step Jorge Polanco took in 2019. How about Byron Buxton before 2019 and since? They somehow squeezed good innings out of Dobnak and Smeltzer. Was anything expected of Bailey Ober? Joe Ryan was not a global a top 100 prospect. Johan Duran has been magnificent. Lewis excelled in his short time here. Looking at those rosters the Twins have had to entrust several young players with important roles and none was a global top prospect at the time they were entrusted with that spot. Buxton was once but he was coming of a historically awful 2018. A side effect of entrusting young players is going to be more fundamental mistakes. I do think Baldelli is the right person to lead what will be a young team in 2023.
  5. I think he has outperformed who I thought he was. I was hoping for a reliable number 4 starter but he has been better. He was not a global top 100 prospect. He is fastball heavy starter whose delivery and mix were compared to Yusmeiro Petit and Ben Lively. I am now hopeful he will remain as a mid rotation starter.
  6. Is there concern the pitch clock will lead to more arm injuries with less recovery time between pitches? Will we ever see a pitcher need to concede a ball just to give his arm a little more time? If they want to shorten games couldn’t they have shortened the time between half innings? Let’s try to shorten the clock on that first. Oh wait… maybe not. They would need to cutback on commercials.
  7. Should the base size change alter thinking about what we need from a catcher next year? Will there be more stolen base attempts? Will the ability to throw out runners be more valuable next year? The league average for throwing out runners is 26%. Sanchez is at 33%, Jeffers 17% and Leon 11%. Sanchez has been one of the better catchers at throwing out runners this year and may be worth retaining.
  8. I am curious how the expectations set in place by the team are different from other small to mid market teams. Where are the expectations coming from? I listen to the Sunday morning show and I don’t hear anything outrageous about expectations? My expectations went up due to their actions and moves in March but those are on my hopes and not something the team set in place. My expectations went up due to their actions at the deadline. Seems like expectations should be based on actions.
  9. I always had hope that Gordon would regain strength and promise after a few years of significant health challenges. I did not imagine that he would be hitting clean up in a meaningful September series against the Yankees.
  10. My point was that in such a small sample the contact that results in singles or not can really impact results and hence I don’t want to judge my disappointment on the deal based this sample for a reliever. I think your point is I should be disappointed in the deal based on results regardless of circumstances or sample.
  11. One of the reason the Twins were able to acquire Mahle without giving up a global top 50 prospect was his health risk. The upside of a healthy Mahle is a vastly improved rotation for the playoffs. We didn’t get the upside. I prefer the risk of Mahle to trading for a starter to try to stabilize the back end but isn’t someone you want starting a playoff game. A healthy Mahle starts game 1 for the Twins. There is reason to be concerned about the buyer side on any significant deadline deal. The solution is to not make deals or be a seller.
  12. If the Twins are in position next year to be buyers I would take the same risk. The only way to avoid buyer risk at the deadline (particularly with the small sample of a reliever) is to not make deals. Even in the September 2 game it could have gone differently. My recollection is the number 8 hitter grounded out then he gave up two singles. One was out of the reach of Correa and the other bounced in front of Kepler. Singles happen. If those two come off the bat a little differently it would have been extra innings. He did lose control after that point. Has he ever been in a bigger spot in his career? I hope he comes out better next time and maintains control. I still make the deal. It is the cost of being a buyer at the deadline. If you want to win those deals it is better to be on the side of the seller.
  13. If they gave the opportunity next summer I would make the same type of deal to try to get an impact starting pitcher. There is a good chance that pitcher will have spent time on the injured list as Castillo, Montas and Mahle did and with all pitchers there would be worry about injury as the season closes. I still make the deal. I also make the deal for the two relievers. It didn’t work out. They aren’t likely to see the upside of a healthy Mahle pitching in game 1 of a playoff series. That is the buyer risk of any deadline deal. I hope they are in position to take risks again next year.
  14. I appreciate the incite and makes me wonder which of Camargo or Isola is a better option to be added to the 40. There will be a need for a third catcher to be on the 40 during the season. I think defensive readiness trumps offensive readiness in this role. In 159 innings Isola has just one passed ball but he has allowed 39 stolen bases in 40 attempts. That is a massive number in only 159 innings. In 412.1 innings Camargo has 8 passed balls and allowed 36 stolen bases in 55 attempts. There are other important defensive contributions from catchers that aren’t measured here but I don’t see how Isola would be ready to play catcher. If the Twins feel Camargo is close enough to be ready defensively he has shown enough bat to earn that spot on the 40.
  15. Some of his metrics are better than Urshela’s this year but I will buy that Urshela is the better defender next year. At 3B I don’t think Urshela can come close to making up the difference in their bats with his glove. If limits on shifting are employed the need for range from a 3B even gets smaller. Miranda will likely improve both parts of his game with experience. Urshela will probably decline some next year. I really don’t think it will be that close next year.
  16. In order to be eligible for the playoffs he needs to be on the 40 prior to September 1. It is possible in the case of injury to petition but if they know they will bring him up it should be before September 1. Why bring him up? He may be ready enough to be a better option than the current staff and question marks on the IL. Why wait until the winter to add him? If he is not ready they may have to burn an option to return him. I would add him and start him Tuesday or have him ready to follow Archer’s 3-4 innings. The risk of using and needing that option down the road is outweighed by the need of some upside in the pitching staff.
  17. Baldelli is a good manager. It might be wise to fire him in hopes of finding great but I think it is more likely they find mediocre.
  18. Miranda is the better option at 3B. Arraez is the better option at 1B. I don’t think Urshela is a good utility option though he did play some SS for the Yankees. I think they have enough infield depth with Lewis, Gorden, Palacios and soon Julien. They probably should spend the dollars elsewhere. This is not a knock on Urshela who would earn his salary. They simply have better cost controlled options.
  19. I don't think that data is mathematically significant at that sample and an indicator of who will pitch better going forward for the Twins.
  20. Can they go to 15 or does one of the additions need to be a position player?
  21. In September they can carry 14 pitchers. I would expect Ober, Winder, Maeda and Dobnak to start with a rehab assignment in AAA. Since none are on that assignment yet I wouldn’t think any of them would be ready on September 1. Moran would be my addition. They still need to find spots for Maeda, Ober and Winder including two 40 man roster spots. One of the 40 man roster spots would be Jewell. The other probably Pagán. A third spot on the 28 would be needed if by some miracle all three made it through a healthy rehab. In that case Bundy or Archer may be the next to go. Of course all of this really won’t really matter because someone currently on the roster will get injured (or maybe already is injured in Mahle).
  22. Playoff eligibility. Player must be on 40 man roster or 60 day IL as August 31 turn into September 1 to be eligible.
  23. Does any team have a pitcher used exclusively as a long man? I think Sands has the least trust in the bullpen. I don’t think he replaces Mahle in a close game. I believe they trust Pagán more in that situation. He is the reliever with options. There will be a game where the Twins get down and he goes in to save the rest of the bullpen followed by a trip to St. Paul after the game. I think the Twins do need a trusted mid game reliever that can go multiple innings. With the addition of Fulmer and Lopez I think Jax can return that role. In the first two months of the season most of his appearances went more than an inning. That shifted when Duffey, Smith and Pagán failed.
  24. It would be a tough add. Isola probably is not close to ready as a catcher. He has only caught 15 games this year and runners have been successful in 30 of 31 stolen base attempts. That is both high volume and a horrible rate. It would be really hard for a contending team to devote a 40 man roster spot to him. Those spots are starting valuable and he has no positional flexibility. Would a tanking team stash him on the 26 man roster? It is hard to imagine as a catcher. They need to develop their pitchers also and I don’t think they would want him behind the plate for 60 or more games. Any team taking him would have to stash him for a year as a pinch hitter/1B/DH. In 2024 they could return him to the minors to try to develop him as a catcher with hopes he can help at catcher at some point in 2025.
×
×
  • Create New...