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jorgenswest

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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. I don’t know if it is this deal but this is the kind of buy low trade the Twins front office needs to find and win. The kind of trade where most on the outside will reject. They need to be better than other teams at capturing the upside of players like Torres.
  2. When you sign an aging veteran to a four year deal you count on the bulk of that value to be in the first two years. He has performed as expected the first two years with a 125 OPS+ and starting 137 of 208 games. I would expect both those numbers will drop in the next two years. He is still a good player but relative to his contract likely a negative value. Those contracts are hard to trade in the off-season when there is also a supply of players in free agency, In two years that money will free up and the Twins can take another shot at a big free agent commitment
  3. At the trade Eno Sarris compared him to Ben Lively and Yusmeiro Petit. I think he had some video of how his fastball and arm action were similar to Petit. Let’s hope he is near the upper extreme with his effectiveness in that style. Can he develop the pitch mix to face batters multiple times in the game? Can he be as effective from the stretch as he is from the wind up? Can he survive a likely high fly ball rate and avoid giving up too many home runs with runners on base? I think he will have some growing pains but he needs to be at this level.
  4. I think we have been given the answer. We might not agree with the Twins approach but Ober has thrown more innings this season than any of his previous professional season. They are limiting his remaining workload both within games and days of rest between starts.
  5. Hands are incredibly important to hitting and usually a lengthy rehab on the minors when recovering. He is doing that rehab here and it shows. When he was in the minors on his short rehab stay some wondered why he wouldn’t be up in the majors rehabbing given this is a lost season. His return this month is not predictive of his future and if the Twins front office use it to project his future value they will be mistaken. I think back to David Ortiz who suffered both a hamate injury early and wrist injury later in his time with the Twins. He did not perform well in return from either of those injuries and I think it led the Twins to project him as an inconsistent hitter that could not be counted on to perform well consistently.
  6. I think they need to take the Mariners path. They need to be better than everyone else at identifying a Chris Flexen. They need to invest innings in young pitchers like Gilbert, Sheffield and Dunn. They need to identify the prospects in trade that will make an impact as they did with Gonzalez. If they go the free agent route it has to be for multiple years of control as it was with Kikuchi. The Mariners have seen success and have one of the younger pitching staffs in baseball. Maybe the best moves this winter will be one where no ones would have predicted success.
  7. The Twins have proved false the often stated “There is no such thing as a bad one year contract”. The practice of signing stop gap pitchers to the rotation or late inning relief needs to stop. That gap only becomes wider the next year and the decline phase pitchers often found in one year deals are not guaranteed gap fillers. This doesn’t mean do nothing. They need to sign a free agent pitcher to a long term contract for the top of their rotation. They can make trades as they did for Odorizzi and Maeda. Instead of signing the Happ’s and Shoemaker’s they need to be better than every other team at identifying pitchers that have failed elsewhere and find that upside. They also need to invest innings into their own young pitching. If they can’t develop their own under control pitching they can not sustain success.
  8. No. They do not have the pitching. It would be a mistake to try to sign several guys a bargain prices and hope to squeeze out one more year. Instead they need to sign one pitcher spending in the mid 20s per year. That would have been the cost of Berrios in free agency. They need to find the rest either in-house, in trade or be better than everyone else at finding a Chris Flexen. Someone that comes out of nowhere and is young enough with control to be counted on for a few seasons. I expected Falvey to be the guy that can find those pitchers. No more one year stop gap pitchers. They don’t plug the gap and it only gets bigger the next year.
  9. If Garver returns from IL before the season ends they may just use him at DH and 1B.
  10. I think he will be up but it might be better to keep Rortvedt down so both are the primary catchers and get the at bats.
  11. His xFIPs have been very stable. 2019: 4.61 2020: 4.26 2021: 4.50 I don’t think he has changed. They should have done better last winter. They need to do better this winter.
  12. I do believe it will be helpful to the development of players like Ryan and Miranda to play for a month. I don’t believe we will learn anything in a month that would be helpful in making decisions about next year. Ryan may pitch well or not. Miranda may hit well or not. It won’t tell us anything about their readiness. They would be my two locks though. They have dominated AAA and are ready to struggle in the majors. Relievers are hard. The sample is always so small for a reliever and any stats are pretty useless in making a decision. They should have in the pen the pitchers that are the best bets for a roster spot next year. They didn’t need to wait until September to make that happen though.
  13. Looks like he last pitched July 15. It is probably wise to use bullpens to build him back up. I doubt it is about how he is throwing.
  14. The option will not be used for Ryan unless he is sent back down for 20 days. As long as he isn’t here for a temporary start an option will not be used. Ryan can develop as well in the minors as he can in the majors and there is no way to predict when those lumps will come. A few poor starts heading into the off-season or a few good starts won’t tell us anything about next year. He should be called up though because it will be more interesting. The Twins are in the entertainment business and a few starts from Ryan will draw interest. I would look forward to those starts. The best reason to keep him down would be specific work they see needed to be more successful in the major leagues. Does he need to work on a pitch that will be more effective against left handed hitters? Does he need to reduce his very high fastball usage to work on his other pitches? How is he pitching with runners on base? He hasn’t had many runners on base in the minors. Are his pitches as effective from the stretch or does he need to improve from the stretch? Any of those areas are probably easier to work on in the minors.
  15. Duffey will be 31 in December. This might simply be decline. The decline can be sudden for relievers. They often have one really effective pitch and when they lose a little on that pitch they don’t have anything else to fall back on.
  16. Reading about guys shining like Leobaldo Cabrera is a big reason I enjoy these reports. He may not be a prospect but fighting back into affiliated ball through the Empire League after getting released by the Yankees in 2018 makes for a good story. Thanks to the crew that provides these reports. I really appreciate them.
  17. I am uncertain about Dobnak’s status if DFA’d. Would it be more likely that he passes through because of the contract? Wouldn’t a team claiming him have to pick up the contract? I am not so sure his contract is a reason he stays on the 40.
  18. A few September starts isn’t going to change his development. The Twins aren’t going to learn anything they wouldn’t learn working in the minors. I still think they should bring him up. They should bring him up because it will simply be more interesting and fun to watch the game. I would look forward to his few starts. The Twins are in the entertainment business. Ryan has earned the call up. Bring him up in September. Limit his pitches. Entertain us.
  19. It isn’t just the Twins. Many teams extend the pitching on their 40 man roster with waiver wire claims. It helps to have players that you bring in to throw innings and protect the arms of the other pitchers while keeping some flexibility on the 40 man roster. If a need arises to create a spot on the 40 they can DFA Garza and fill that spot with perhaps another arm that can give them some innings. If they put Cano or Hamilton or Moran on the 40 they need to remain on the 40 man roster. I don’t think it is a fascination but rather 40 man management and innings load management in a year where they are careful with the innings of several of their pitchers.
  20. Would the 70th percentile projection be someone like Josh Willingham? His first full season was at age 27. He was not a good fielder or runner. He had a good 7 year stretch as a hitter with an OPS+ of 125.
  21. I hope the Twins take a seriously internal look at themselves and find the truth in what he has said.
  22. Would offers of players likely to be DFA’d had been worthwhile? I am sure they had some bar in mind for his remaining value to the team and that bar must have exceeded any marginal 40 man roster adds. After the deadline I don’t want them to say that no one offered anything they value for him. How would that help? Instead they said that they appreciated his value as a teammate. I prefer that response.
  23. Any injury to a hand is not trivial for a pitcher. Ervin Santana never recovered from surgery to the middle finger of his throwing hand. Rogers has injured the same finger though I think the injury is different. Anyone know of other pitchers with the same injury and how they recovered? What is the recovery time if surgery is needed?
  24. While the market seemed hot for pitching it was almost exclusively better starting pitching than Pineda. I think it can be argued that Pineda is a better option than Lester and the Twins could have had a return of Lane Thomas. Thomas does have 4th OF potential but would the Twins have space for another OF on their 40 man roster this winter? Maybe. He could be a better to retain than Cave but is Cave someone that will be kept on the 40 this winter? Similar players will be available inexpensively this winter. Pineda might be a comp to Heaney. His ERA is better but Heaney has the better xFIP. Even if they could have substituted in Pineda for Heaney they are adding 25 year old AA starter Jason Junk who they would need to add to the 40 or expose in rule 5. I think the Yankees would prefer Heaney with his better health track record but maybe the Twins could have added another pitcher here. It seems at best the value of a starting pitcher like Pineda was a marginal prospect already on the 40 or needing to be added to the 40. These are the kinds of players they will find this winter DFA’d by other teams or exposed in the rule 5. I am scratching my head why a pitcher like Pineda or Heaney didn’t have a better market this year. Perhaps the supply of better starters brought down their value to players on the fringe of the 40 in return. Maybe retaining Pineda for two months has at least as much value.
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