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Everything posted by jorgenswest

  1. I think Polanco at SS gives the Twins the best chance to win. I also think that middle infield defense is less important in the current strike out/lift the ball/shifting context of the game. I would go with plan M.
  2. Cotton does not have options remaining. That makes it tough to be part of the back half of the bullpen. Those are the pitchers the Twins need to rotate to AAA when the pitchers get overworked. I do like the signing though. These are the kinds of signings small to mid market teams need to win on. The Twins have been on the wrong end of this a few times since Falvey arrived. I hope this time they have identified and develop the untapped talent.
  3. Minuscule sample size at the split level. The data should not in any way inform them of the direction they take with Jax. Is he out of options? Is pitching in AAA an option? Can they make decisions based on what they see rather than looking at minuscule split data?
  4. Pressly would have been very valuable to the 2019 team. It goes beyond just his performance.they don’t need to sign Blake Parker endure his poor pitching. Maybe they don’t need to trade for Sergio Romo and certainly Sam Dyson. Prelander Berroa is still in the organization. So is Kei-Wei Teng. Take a look at their strikeout numbers last year. Would Lewis Diaz fit as a DH/1B possibility right now? Maybe. They did get Valimont in the Diaz trade. He might help. We don’t need to argue whether or not the Twins would have extended Pressly. His skills were essential to the 2019 team. They needed to spend assets to fill that hole. In trying to replace him they spent salary on three veteran relievers in Parker and partials for Romo and Dyson. They also spent prospect capital in Berroa, Teng, Diaz and Davis while adding Valimont. Alcala has a better chance to make an impact in the major leagues than Berroa and Teng. It isn’t that much better. It just comes with a lower floor. Would the Giants trade Berroa and Teng for Alcala? Maybe. BTV says it is a fair trade proposal. Would the Marlins trade Diaz for Celestino? Most likely. They get a minor overpay in return. The Twins could have had the 2019 performance of Pressly and kept prospects that approach the value they acquired in Alcala and Celestino. Cash in? I hope so. Short changed? Absolutely.
  5. I sure hope the Twins are not using data in a 14 inning sample to make any decisions about a player.
  6. I am all for age based free agency/rule 5/options. Teams get control through age 28. Players need to be on the 40 by age 25 or subject to rule 5. I would eliminate options but you if you are on the 40 at all during season you get major league minimum for the season or portion once on 40. There will need to be some sort of arbitration or performance scaling for those exceptional players that hit the majors at young ages. I want small market teams to be competitive for their own free agents particularly now that it hits at a younger age for most. Part of the revenue sharing or payroll tax funds would be used to help smaller market teams keep their own free agents. It might look like the league reimbursing a percentage of the contract or extension into free agent years. That percent can be scaled depending on market with maybe a ceiling of 20%.
  7. There is value when the back half of the bullpen has options. All teams run into a stretch where they need to call up arms and option out others. With the Twins rotation they may face more of these stretches. I think they need to add to the bullpen but I would be hesitant to add anyone without options that is not a late inning option. Are these the best high leverage relievers remaining? If so, sign the best of the three. If not I want to sign the better reliever and leave the the back half to players with options.
  8. When Donaldson is healthy I think playing Arraez at 2B and Polanco at SS will give the Twins the best chance to win. Even when Donaldson is injured I would slot Miranda at 3B and keep Polanco and Arraez up the middle. They won a lot of games with the pair up the middle in spite of their defensive short comings. If they can trade Arraez for a better fit like a starting shortstop or number three starter with control than by all means make that trade, I would have to be blown away to trade him for players projected to debut 2023 or later.
  9. I think there will be plenty of innings for young pitchers even with Greinke. I wouldn’t want them to add multiple one year stop gap solutions and I certainly don't want one year guys at the back end. Sign Greinke. If the rest of the young staff really steps up and they are competitive then he can lead. If the young pitchers stumble and they are not competitive Greinke can be moved at the deadline.
  10. The Twins need to identify guys like Freeland and Weaver and then up their game. I couldn’t possibly know whether either of these two has untapped potential and wish I had more confidence in the Twins ability to make that assessment. I do think these are the kinds of moves small to mid market teams need to make and win on, The Twins certainly can afford to trade from their prospect depth to acquire either or both. Odorizzi had two good seasons with the Twins and should certainly be considered for a marginal minor leaguer that will soon be a 40 man roster decision. The contract is not prohibitive. A Pineda signing would be a similar move,
  11. The Mariners might be a landing point for Arraez but the Twins don’t need quality rather than quantity. They need to add one or two of their prospects and get back the Mariners top pitching prospect in Kirby. Would a trade straight up for J.P. Crawford fit? The Mariners best prospect is a SS but he is a year away. Crawford and Arraez have the same projected steamer WAR. They have similar control though currently Arraez has an extra year. That may change with the new deal. They have similar BTV. Crawford is certainly a better fit for the Twins needs at SS.
  12. I don’t find the rebuild debate helpful. Of course they are in a rebuild. They are rebuilding an entire rotation from the one they began with in 2021. The debate is really how they use their resources to rebuild that staff. Do they trade 2023 assets to improve the 2022 rotation? Do they devote a significant portion of the 23-25 budgets to sign a starter who will likely have their best season with them in 2022? I would be 2023 focused with every use of assets.
  13. What might an incentive look like to encourage smaller market teams to re-sign their own free agents? If there had been a financial incentive for the Twins to extend Berrios into his free agency years would the Twins have had a better chance of signing him? That incentive could go directly to player or team effectively increasing the offer from the home team.
  14. Yes. That is my plan for this off season. Make moves that will make the 2023 team better. In this case it makes the 2022 team better also.
  15. I don’t go by what they say or even read it. I can see the roster. My filter became 2023 in late August when Maeda was lost for 2022. At the trade deadline Maeda had finished a very strong July with 5 starts and an ERA OF 2.15. It was plausible to add a number 2 pitcher and build the rest of the rotation for 2022. As soon as they lost Maeda I would advocate the Twins devote resources to assets that they control through at least 2023. It is my suggested filter not the Twins. I don’t know their plans and can only offer my thoughts. I am sure many disagree,
  16. You are pretty convincing. My filter is 2023. Does this make trade make the team better in 2023? I think it does and Montas would be a needed piece of any 2023 playoff rotation. I suppose the Twins could wait until next season to make this kind of deal and try to get someone with 23-24 control. I just wonder if starting pitching will be available next off-season as they appear to be this year from the Reds and A’s.
  17. I didn’t look it up before but Montas (39.6) for Martin and Woods-Richardson (total 40.4) make a pretty good match according to BTV. Bassist would add 17 to the deal. If the Twins don’t believe in Montas then maybe someone like Tyler Mahle who also has two years of control and similar enough WAR. The cost of acquiring Berrios level starting pitching through trade is vast. I would make that Montas deal but I get why the Twins might be wiser to believe more in the future of Martin.
  18. Would it makes sense for the Twins to trade Martin and Woods-Richardson for Montas? Would it seem like they don’t have a plan by trading for prospects and then turning around and trading for a pitcher? It would be like trading Berrios for Montas. How does flipping one starter for another help? It helps because they traded the last two months of Berrios 2021 for the Montas 2023. They weren’t going anywhere in 2021. Why not trade him while his value is high and bank the prospect capital? Why not use that capital for much needed starting pitching? The Twins need starting pitching. If they can trade Martin for a Berrios like return with control in 2023 they absolutely should do it. Note: I chose Montas because I was looking for a pitcher that was a close match for Berrios in WAR last year (both 4.1) with 2023 control. There might be a better candidate. Let’s try not to derail a discussion about trading Martin with a debate about Berrios v Montas.
  19. Good work and insight. I don’t disagree with the grade but I find hope in Celestino’s AAA performance at age 22. Given more consistent play he showed a little pop, good speed and a good walk rate. Given his age and athleticism he may have the most upside on your debut list.
  20. Is that so surprising? Teams change. Look to 2019 and compare the Rays that contributed more than one WAR to that team against the Twins that contributed more than one WAR. The Twins have retained more of those contributors to 2019. Is there any significance one way or another? Not that I can see.
  21. Should they offer Martin and Woods-Richardson for two years of Montas? It would essentially be an exchange of Berrios for Montas where the Twins gave up the last two months of 2021 in exchange for all of 2023. I would do it but I wonder if the A’s will get a better offer.
  22. Derek Falvey has led the Twins for five years. In those five years the Twins have won the AL central twice and appeared in the wild card in another. They put up only the second season where the Twins won over 100 games. Two of the four Twins seasons with a winning percentage of .600 or better have occurred in these five years, In the other two years they were never in the mix. They currently are in the midst of a losing stretch that spans one season. The plan has been pretty successful so far.
  23. They were great last year. Both had career years. Assuming they hit their projections they would add 5.5 WAR to the Twins next year. If I believed the Twins were an 88-90 win team without them I would definitely see this pair as putting them over the top and make them World Series contenders. However I think the team is closer to a 78-80 win and the Twins would be trading 2023 assets in order to try to compete for a wild card spot, I wouldn’t make that trade. I would explore trading for Montas who will be 29 and would a 2023 asset. Bassitt will be 33. He had a really good age 32 season but not a long career of success. I would not be interested in him beyond this season as I don’t want to pay for the decline. Yes to a Montas type deal acquiring a pitcher in their 20s with multiple years of control. No to a Bassitt type deal.
  24. Is it better to spend money trying to add runs or prevent runs? I think that is the question. Bill James’ Pythagorean expected wins would suggest it is better to prevent runs. Let’s suppose you had a team projected to a .500 record at 4.5 runs scored given up per game. If you somehow had the resources to add 1 run per game you would be projected for 94.4 wins. If on the other hand you had the resources to prevent a run per game your projection would be 97.0 wins. In that vacuum it is better to spend on preventing runs. There are a lot of other factors at play though. I think spending on offense is less prone to injury and a little more reliable.. On the other poor pitching and short outings can put more stress on all of the arms on the staff. I think the Twins would be wise to invest resources into arms with multiple years of control rather than add to the offense.
  25. Larnach should probably start in AAA. Major league pitchers exploited his weaknesses last year. Celestino probably will join him unless he can win a regular role of at least 4 games a week in spring training. His glove in LF would be an asset if his bat is ready. They need a right handed bat that can play some corner OF. I would give Miranda a shot. Miranda needs to find at least 4 games a week between corner OF, 3B, 2B and 1B. If his bat is real LF might be the spot he can get regular play next year. I would start Kirilloff, Buxton and Kepler with Miranda, Gordon and Arraez filling in. Larnach, Celestino and Martin can battle for the first guy to get called up when injuries strike.
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