jorgenswest

It shouldn’t be a surprise. He had his first good season at age 32. At 34 last year he had the same number of batted ball events. His exit velocity, max exit velocity, launch angle, ground ball percentage, barrels, and hard hit balls all went in the wrong direction. As a result his expected ERA went from 3.04 to 4.42. His swing and miss rate was down 1, separation between fast ball and change up was down 2 and K rate down 3.6%. Walk rate was slightly up. At 35 should we expect a return to age 32 or another step of decline? I would not base it on spring ERA. Even a single regular season ERA, FIP and xFIP come in too small samples for relievers. I would watch his velocity, the swings and misses he is getting and the quality of contact he is giving up. If that doesn’t look close to 2023 it is hard to see how he helps the team.

Is Alex Verdugo the only viable left handed batting free agent outfielder? Comforto just signed. Winker is probably a DH though maybe that can be said about Larnach too. Seattle and Houston have a need. They might be waiting out Winker and Verdugo for the best possible deal. Would Larnach be a significant enough upgrade over Verdugo or Winker offensively and defensively to give up assets?

Baseball is a great game and we are guaranteed 162 of them each season. It’s the games that matter. No matter what happens there is always going to be another game to watch.

He is the one established starter on the staff. We have no idea what Ober will bring. I think his leadership matters to the development of the young starters. That has value. His innings matter to the development of the team. There is no path to totally break it down anymore. Teams don’t trade top flight prospects. The first round pick is not guaranteed like it was for the Astros and Orioles. You have to develop the players in the system. He helps with that development. By the deadline hopefully one or two others will establish themselves. At that time a Berrios deal (2 top 100 talents) will be possible and likely isn’t much different from what they are being offered now. Maybe the Giants will have starter trouble and change their mind about making Eldridge available. In that case a deal now makes sense.

I wonder if this is the shift that Joe Pohlad and Zoll have taken. They have signed 6 relievers since Falvey left. Even the signing of Rogers just prior to his leaving might not be Falvey’s direction. I only see quotes for Shelton and Zoll about that signing when announced. Falvey may have been planning to have some of the young starters in the bullpen. Things have shifted quite a bit since. Starter certainly became thinner this week so maybe they are better off this year and in the long run. I would not have signed so many aging relievers. Even if they are league average you still have the same problem next year.

At some point they will need to play on a larger field with more space between the bases, more distance from the pitcher to home plate and a correspondingly larger home plate. That will be beyond my lifetime. When it happens strikeouts will drop so successful pitchers will need to keep hitters off balance and get groundballs. On a bigger field successful position players are going to need more athleticism and speed. I don’t think that conversation starts until there are a few really serious injuries or perhaps even deaths. That path is inevitable though with the always increasing pitch velocities and exit velocities.

Here how Woods Richardson ranks compared to the group of 150 pitchers with the most innings as a starter in the last two seasons (over 141 innings needed) 3.1 fWAR (75th) 4.1 brWAR 4.08 ERA (82nd) 4.27 FIP (90th) 4.69 xFIP (122nd) 3.83 xERA (49th) Last year there were only two pitchers younger than him that threw more innings in Paul Skenes and Cade Horton. A skeptic is going to see the xFIP and an optimist is going to see the xERA. Proponents of xFIP might say that it is a better predictor for future ERA due to using the league average HR rate (an individual HR rate is very random in small samples). Proponents of xERA might say that it is better because it uses the quality of contact for which the pitcher has more rather than the outcome. I think you look at it all. It sure looks like Woods Richardson’s performance over the last two years is close to the middle of his 150 peers. That performance comes as one of the youngest pitchers in the group. Is that something that is helpful in the 4th or 5th starter role?

I think you are right based on the direction they took. If they are signing these other one year stop gaps add Lowe too, That wouldn’t be my direction. I wouldn’t have signed all of those decline phase one year contract relievers. It pushes the problem to next year. I would have built from the pool of young starters. I would not have pushed off first base until next year. I would have looked to pushing Jenkins and Rodriguez to the majors with Keaschall at 1B, Martin at 2B and Wallner to DH. Clemens is a good for behind both of them. Roden can play 1B. That team of unproven young players has a better chance of 5th place than the route Pohlad and Zoll took. I think it also has a better chance of mid 80s wins. Joe Pohlad is putting his mark on this roster. New veteran relievers are added daily. Solutions at 1B and the bullpen are still elusive. Oh well. I will be watching. Go Twins.

Rodriguez and Jenkins are the only viable centerfield options when Buxton is out. Martin or Roden can give him a day but the Twins will need one of them if it is longer. My roster would have been filled with the upside of those two in the outfield pushing Martin to 2B and Keaschall to 1B as well as the young remaining starter arms in the pen. That isn’t the direction the Twins went. Oh well. I will be watching regardless.

Outman is lottery ticket. He a valuable major leaguer in 2023. He was awful in the majors the next two years but also had a AAA wRC+ of 135 and 136 in 2025 at the time of the trade. I would think the Twins are at least as likely to get value from Outman as they are in getting value from a lottery ticket like Alejandro Hidalgo. The chance of payoff is low for both. Echoing @jmlease1

Chafin pitched for the Nationals and Angels last year with a 2.41 ERA but worse peripherals.

At age 25 Paredes was in his 4th organization. Almost 27 and the Astros are looking to move him to his fifth. I have to wonder why. I would not trade Jeffers for him. Larnach isn’t enough but I wouldn’t add much more.

In the Athletic article Joe was very optimistic about the Twins and the season. It almost seems as if he was continually pressed about arbitration. The title of the Athletic article was . The article also stated that Perhaps @Cody Christie had a completely different interview with Joe. If not his take on Ryan leads to comments like this That second hand take is a long way from the Athletic article and is a result of the TD article that is either sourced from a different interview or poorly and maybe irresponsibly represented the entirety of the interview. It does play to what some TD readers want to hear.

They had to take the best offer or lose him to waivers. Maybe no one offered them a prospect with any chance to make it to the majors.

In assessing the international draft you probably need to go back 7 years. By now that player will be on the 40 using their last option or been exposed to rule 5. Diego Cartaya was one of the big signings in 2018. He had last year to either make it or not with the Dodgers so the 2025 season was the year to check on him. The Twins used most of their pool money in 2019. That group is really at a key moment this year to make an impact on the Twins. One of the players is on the 40 in Emmanuel Rodriguez (on his last option). Others like Ricardo Olivar have been exposed to rule 5. Emma Rodriguez was given the 8th most bonus money. The Dodgers Luis Rodriguez was right behind in 9th. He was released after the 2024 season. The Dodgers have a few others that remain in the organization. All have passed through rule 5. Look at the list provided by Spotrac. Do you recognize most of the names at the top of the list? I would absolutely trade international money. The players are so young when they are acquired and get to the point where they need to be on the 40 or exposed in rule 5 at a very young age.

There is a huge difference between moving from catcher to first base than from outfield. In order to play catcher you have to have good hands and feet. The same is true at first base. A player who has never played on the dirt is going to have to develop those hands and feet to see if they became adequate as well as learning the position. I am sure Washington knew the transition would be hard for Hatteberg but he also must have know that it was easier than trying to convert a guy who had never played on the dirt. It is worthy of a try. We might never see him in a game at 1B hopefully working him out there will be remembered.

Most of the negative defensive WAR value for both Lowe and Bell is the positional adjustment. Bell had a -15.7 DEF value last year because he played mostly DH. Lowe played much more first base which has less negative positional adjustment. Still he was a -13.3 DEF value as well as a negative DRS and OAA. It is not easy for a DH to be better than a 2 WAR player given the huge negative positional adjustment on their WAR. Last year Yandy Diaz had a wRC+ of 121 well above league average and he only had 1.7 WAR in 496 PAs as a DH. I am hoping Jenkins arrives soon. I think Jenkins in RF with Wallner at DH and Bell at 1B has more impact on their overall defense as well as at the plate.

I wondered if Shelton had any experience with using young starters in the bullpen. In Shelton’s last full season Luis Ortiz had a season I can envision among the Twins hopeful starter. Ortiz began the season in the bullpen. In June they needed a starter. In his first three games after relieving he pitched innings 2-6. In his next games he completed 6 innings as the starter and stayed in the rotation. He ended with a 3.22 ERA as a starter and a 3.49 ERA as a reliever though that is a little deceiving because he had a bad outing in one of his three bulk inning outings. Ortiz was 25 with a similar prospect pedigree to several of the Twins fighting for a starting spot.

I think a reasonable expectation for Larnach is a player on the fringe of another team’s roster. From the Astros that might be Nick Allen who they acquired in trade after the Braves DFA’d him. His defense at shortstop is very good.

I did notice the article said that the Cards had three left handed hitting outfielders. Romero was their closer after the Helmsley trade and saved 8 games with a 2.10 ERA in that role. He would be a tremendous addition for the Twins.

Is it possible the new leadership will not be so fixed in their thinking about whether pitcher is a reliever or a starter? Some teams would take the best 12 arms. If Abel and Bradley have a better chance of getting batters out than Topa or Orza or Adams shouldn’t they be in the bullpen? The same would go in considering Prielipp and Funderburk. Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that they will never return to starter? In the last two all star games there were at least 13 starters that earlier in their careers had at least one season where they were relievers. They include Tyler Glasnow, Reynaldo Lopez, Chris Sale, Chris Sanchez, Ranger Saurez, Garrett Crochet, Clay Holmes, Tanner Houck, Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans, Kris Bubic, Drew Rasmussen and Freddy Peralta. Putting any of the Twin young arms in the major league pen is not going to fix them in that role for their careers. Why start them in AAA instead? Is there a fear that the Twins won’t have a 6th starter ready when someone gets injured? There are teams that will have their 6th starter in the bullpen. The Phillies had Walker in the 6th starter role. He was in the pen all of June. In July he was needed back in the rotation. He had thrown 33 pitches in his last relief outing. In his first start he threw 63 and the next start 70. Then he was back on track. There are other examples. Brad Lord with the Nationals transitioned twice. He went from 50 pitches his first start to 92 pitches his third start. Hayden Birdsong, Ryan Gusto, Jacob Latz and Eric Lauer moved from the pen to the rotation. Lauer pitched for the World Champion Blue Jays. Even if the Twins stash a 6th starter in AAA there is no guarantee his schedule will line up with the Twins need. A few years ago the Twins had Ober in the 6th spot in AAA. There was a need for a 6th starter but they couldn’t bring up Ober as had pitched too recently so they went with Varland. Someone convince me the Twins should send down Abel or Matthews to AAA even though they have better arms than some in their major league pen. It can’t be that it will keep them from being a starter in the future. It can’t be that they won’t be able to transition to a starter in season. Why send the, down? I know that is what Falvey would do. He’s gone. Why should the current leadership send them down?

Unless they can get Gallen back a starting pitcher would help. I would start with Ober and a lottery ticket. They might prefer Bradley who is similar age and prospect pedigree but minimal success in the majors. Somehow it seems like Lawler is the kind of player the Guardians get.

I don’t know or want to guess what they are going to do. They need to fill seats. That will take winning games. That is a difficult task and I would bet on upside. New young exciting players will also help. Jenkins and Rodriguez would top that list. Imagine the speed and range of their outfield. Martin’s growth their last year makes him a fit also. I would put the best remaining starting arms in the pen. That might mean Bradley, Festa and Prielipp are working late in games. Abel might be a middle reliever. I would stick with the upside of the younger players like Lee and Lewis who struggled last year as opposed to a one year stop gap they both need to be looking in the rear view for Culpepper. I would continue playing aggressive in the basepaths as they did after the deadline. It is unlikely to work. It is the only way to balance trying to fill seats this year by competing in the AL central while devoting playing time to several 27 and under players. I will be watching what ever route they choose. The 162 games matter to me.

Thanks @Cory Moen I appreciate this series of articles.

I don't see why it matters how they got here. I can accept the mutual parting and move on. It doesn’t matter. I care about where they are going and I don’t have a clue. Do they trade Ryan and Jeffers? Do they attempt to extend them? It seems unlikely they will stay the course. I don’t care about where they have been. Where will they go?